(1) Leo Nunez not actually Leo Nunez?
(2) All Michael Young does is hit, hit, hit.
(3) Pablo Sandoval proving 2010 was a fluke.
(4) Can Matt Kemp actually win the NL Triple Crown?
(5) Ryan Howard ready to return from ankle injury.
(6) Matt Moore dominates the Yankees. Is he the next Stephen Strasburg?
By Ray Flowers
Every fellas dream is to be at some club surrounded by Playmates. I’m not embarrassed to say it, and neither should you be. However, it merely takes some cash or knowing the right people to get into that club – there’s no skill involved (you’d better have a lot of cash or some serious “game” if you want to stay in that club). You can’t say the same thing about the men listed below who unlocked the door to their clubs based solely upon their skills.
THE 30/30 CLUB
Ryan Braun has 31 homers and 31 steals. The homers aren’t a surprise, he averaged 32 a season his first four years in the big leagues. The steals are a surprise however. He stole at least 14 bases each of his first four seasons but his previous career best was 20 back in 2009.
Matt Kemp has 34 homers and 40 steals. That’s a career best in homers as he has upped his homer total every season of his career (seven, 10, 18, 26, 28 and 34). It’s also a career best steal total and the third time in four years he’s swiped at least 34 bags.
THE 25/25 CLUB
Jacoby Ellsbury is two homers away from joining the 30/30 club. He has 28 homers and 37 SB. He had 20 homers over his first four seasons and swiped 120 bases in his last two healthy season. Yeah, it’s been a confusing season.
Ian Kinsler has 29 homers and 25 steals. This is the second time in three years that he has reached those totals. He went 30/30 in 2009.
THE 40/20 CLUB
Curtis Granderson is having a masterful season for the Yankees highlighted by a career best 41 homers and 24 steals on the base paths (he needs two more steals to match his career best). His most impressive number this season though might be his 133 runs scored.
THE 30/20 CLUB
Justin Upton has 31 bombs and 21 steals. Not bad for a 24 year old who could get even better.
THE 20/30 CLUB
B.J. Upton isn’t the player that his younger brother is, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a highly productive ball player. B.J. is the owner of 21 homers and 30 steals for the Rays.
THE 20/20 CLUB
Carlos Gonzalez has 26 homers and 20 steals. It’s his second straight 20/20 effort.
Andrew McCutchen has 23 homers and 22 steals for the Pirates. He joined the club for the first time in 2011.
Chris Young, a teammate of Justin Upton, recently joined the club. He has 20 homers and 20 steals, the second straight year he has pulled off the trick and the third time in his career.
By Ray Flowers
There are only a few weeks left in the 2011 fantasy baseball season, sniffle, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t still championships to be won. Here are the answers to some of the questions that I have recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
Of these four, who to keep: Eric Hosmer, Dustin Ackley, Michael Pineda and Mike Trout? We start three outfielders and two utility.
– @TheRKG
Hosmer has had a spectacular rookie campaign hitting .286 with 17 homers, 69 RBI,. 56 runs and a surprising 10 steals. If he swipes 15 bases a season that will be an immense boost to his fantasy value at a position that sports, to be kind, few speed demons. However, a .285-25-90-80 season, while a terrific effort, leaves one well off the pace of the elite at the position, and that marks Hosmer’s keeper value in this setup as low.
Ackley has been as good as advertised. Hitting .290, he’s also taken his walks leading to a .367 OBP, and he’s shown solid extra base power as well for a second sacker (.452 SLG). If we take his production from 76 games this year and double it we’d end up with a second baseman hitting .290 with 12 homer, 68 RBI, 74 runs and eight steals. Those numbers would put him in contention for being a top-15 second baseman.
Pineda has been as good as advertised this year. Yes he’s had a bit of a rough go of late, but he’s still posted 171 Ks in 167 innings, has limited batters to a .208 batting average, and has a 1.08 WHIP in his 27 starts. It’s not his fault that he is 9-10 (thank his teammates anemic hitting). With a year under his belt next season, there’s no reason to expect any fall off in his production, and the team just might turn him loose for 200 innings as well.
Trout probably has more talent than anyone on this list, and that’s saying something. The uber-talented outfielder can’t legally buy a beer yet, but he has five homers, 15 RBI and 18 runs scored over just 100 at-bats. However, the Angels have Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter and Peter Bourjos in the outfield, and if Kendrys Morales returns to action next year, that means the DH spot will be filled by him or Mark Trumbo. As you can see, there is still a chance that Trout will not open the year with the big league club so that he can gain a little more experience in the minors. Regardless, since this league starts only three outfielders, it’s nearly impossible to suggest keeping Trout.
I’m gonna pass on Trout – he’s not likely to be a top-30 outfielder next season. I’d pass on Hosmer – I don’t think he’s going to be a top-10 first baseman either. So it’s Ackley or Pineda. Since I’m of the opinion that pitching is variable, and since a single thrown ball can end a pitchers season, I’d settle on Ackley who could be an up the middle star as soon as next year.
Keeping Roy Halladay & Matt Kemp. Can you pick two more from Yovani Gallardo, Michael Bourn, Brian McCann, John Axford, Ben Zobrist and David Ortiz?
– @JonMize1978
Having a better pitcher/hitter combo will be hard to find, so you’re in great shape there.
Gallardo has won 16 games with 183 Ks, a 3.66 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. He’s inconsistent as all hell, but in the end, the production simply cannot be argued with (there are only four pitchers in the NL with 16 wins and 180 Ks – Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee, Halladay and Gallardo).
Bourn has 52 steals to lead baseball, his third straight season with at least 50 swipes. He’s also recorded at least 84 runs for the third straight season, and for the second time in three years it looks like he will hit at least .285 (he’s batting .301 right now). He’s an elite performer at what he does.
McCann is as consolid a hitter at the catchers’ position as you’re going to find. He’s hit 23 homers this year, his fourth straight season of at least 21 and the fifth time in six years he has done that. He’s also just four RBI away from a sixth straight season of 70 RBI. There isn’t a more consistent power bat in the game behind the dish.
Axford has been stupendous this year with a 2.16 ERA and 42 saves for the Brewers. His last blown save was on April 18th.
Zobrist qualifies in the outfield and at second base, and that is always a nice bonus. He’s also had a fantastic fantasy season as he’s hit .274 with 15 homers, 82 RBI, 88 runs and 17 steals. Mind you, this is the second time in three seasons that he will go .270-15-80-85-15. As of this writing only four players have done that twice the past three years – Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun and Zobrist.
Ortiz is having a fantastic season, he’s on the cusp of his first .300-30-100 season since 2007 (he is hitting .313 with 29 homers and 92 RBI). However, he’ll be 36 next year, has never been a paragon of physical fitness, and he hit .264, .238 and .270 the past three years. Throw in the fact that he only qualifies at DH, and he has limited value.
If I’m protecting four players, only one of them is going to be a pitcher, so Gallardo is out. As great as McCann is, I just don’t trust catchers to stay healthy, so I wouldn’t protect him either. Closers come and go each season, so Axford is out. I love Ortiz and his happy go lucky attitude, but I’m not keeping a DH. That leaves me with Bourn, a truly elite stolen base performer, and Zobrist who is a much better hitter than anyone gives him credit for.
Colby Lewis on waivers – worth a pick up?
– @Robert6286
Colby has won 12 games for the second straight year though his performance has slipped a hair (his ERA has gone from 3.72 to 4.29 and his WHIP from 1.19 to 1.23). Four starts ago his ERA was 3.83 though, but he’s been hit hard over his last four outings leading to 19 earned runs in 21.1 innings for an 8.02 ERA. Normally I would say something like “it’s only four starts, things will even out,” and though I still believe that, we don’t have much time left this year for that stuff to even out. What that means is you need to manage your team differently than you do in May, and by that I mean you have to be looking at each step you take versus focusing on where the steps will take you.
Lewis is a solid hurler who has actually pitched slightly better in the second half of the season (4.15 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) than the first (4.38 and 1.24). Still, he is in the middle of a bad spell right now. His next scheduled start is the 17th in Seattle then the 24th at home against Seattle. You really can’t ask for two better match-ups. So do you start a pitcher with great match-ups, or do you look at his recent work on the bump and run for the hills? I’d let your place in the standings be the ultimate arbiter of that question, but I would hesitate to employ his services unless I was really in need of those innings.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87.
(1) Andre Ethier has record 24-game hitting streak.
(2) Dodgers have no clue in 9th inning.
(3) Carlos Santana really struggling
(4) Reliever closing in on returns – Andrew Bailey, David Aardsma.
By Ray Flowers
(1) Joe Mauer has “bilateral leg weakness” sending him to the DL.
(2) Is Jonathan Herrera worth an add in mixed leagues?
(3) Will the Tigers recall the hot Scott Sizemore to take over for Will Rhymes?
(4) Cliff Lee has a historic night – 99 pitches, 12 Ks.
(5) Alexei Ogando makes history for Rangers.
(6) Matt Kemp is a blazing with new found approach.
By Ray Flowers
The first round of any fantasy draft is huge. There’s no surer way to ruin your fantasy season than to blow your first round pick on an under performing player, or one who ends up injured. At least that is conventional wisdom around most parts. However is it true when so many first round choices, year after year, fail to live up to expectations?
Here is a review of the first round for the National Fantasy Baseball Championship draft we did for our 2010 Annual Fantasy Baseball Magazine. How did our top-15 choices play out now that the 2010 season is complete (the NFBC’s main event is made up of 15-team leagues)?
One final note, in parenthesis is the ranking that each player finished the 2010 season with according to our Player Rater tool. If a player has “miss” after his name, he failed to finish in the top-50.
1- Albert Pujols (2nd)
In 10 years he has never, not once, failed to go at least .312-32-103-99. This year he was far better at .312-42-118-118-14.
2- Hanley Ramirez (11th)
He was a bit disappointing with just 21 homers an a mere .300 average, but he still went 20/30 while scoring more than 90 runs.
3- Alex Rodriguez (48th)
Potentially never has such a powerful season – 30 homers and 125 RBI – seemed so disappointing. A-Rod hit only .270, scored just 74 runs and stole a piddly four bags.
4- Ryan Braun (12th )
He failed to hit 30-homers for the first time with 25, but he still hit .304 with 103 RBI, 101 runs and 14 steals. He has been dynamic in his four year career.
5- Chase Utley – MISS
Injury limited him to 115 games, and the results was his first season with less than 22 homers, 93 RBI and 93 runs scored in six seasons (.275-16-65-75-13).
6- Mark Teixeira – MISS
He hit a terrible .136 in April and never really got on track finishing at .256 (career .286). He still was able to put up another 30-100 season though (33-108) while scoring 113 runs.
7- Miguel Cabrera (5th)
If not for Mr. Pujols, Mr. Cabrera would be seen by more fans for what he is – a player on his way to the Hall of Fame. Cabrera was second in the AL with a .328 average, third in homers with 38, and first in RBI with 126. Plus, he was my choice for the AL MVP (give Who is the AL MVP a read).
8- Matt Kemp – MISS
I predicted he would fall in 2009. I was just a year early. Kemp hit a poor .249, whiffed 170 times and was caught stealing 15 times as he had more than one run in with the coaching staff in L.A. He did have value though with 28 homers, 89 RBI and 82 runs scored.
9- Ryan Howard – (49th)
He hit 31 bombs with 108 RBI, but it was the first time in five years that he failed to go deep 45 times with 136 RBI.
10- Jacoby Ellsbury – MISS
The biggest bust of 2010 as he appeared in just 18 games.
11- Carl Crawford (3rd)
About to be a very rich man in free agency as he yet again was an all-around beast (.307-19-90-110-47).
12- Adrian Gonzalez (34th)
He plays in a terrible park for hitters, and did hit .298 with 31 homers, 101 RBI and 87 runs, but most were expecting more after he averaged 35 homers, 106 RBI and 98 runs the previous three seasons.
13- Prince Fielder – MISS
If I said Fielder hit 32 homers and scored 94 runs, you’d be nonplussed but pleased. However he slumped to .261 and drove in just 83 runs a year after platting a career best 141 runs so it was clearly a disappointing effort.
14- Ian Kinsler – MISS
I had the pick here, and I felt good about taking Mr. 30/30 with my first selection. Alas, his season was one of injury including that stubborn ankle issue that really held him down early in the year. A season of .286-9-45-73-15 is solid for a second sacker — if he was your 14th round pick, not the 14th player taken overall.
15- Evan Longoria (22nd)
Almost matched his draft day cost as he pushed his average up to .294 with 46 doubles, five triples and five steals (all career bests). He did produce a 3-year low in homers (22) while losing nine RBI (104) and four runs (96) from his ’09 effort.
Of these 15 guys, do you know how many returned first round value according to our Player Rater? The answer is a mere five: Braun, Cabrera, Crawford, Pujols and Ramirez.
All of this just goes to show you that the old adage that drafts are won or lost in the first round may not be true because I bet a whole bunch of people won leagues taking one of the 10 guys mentioned here who didn’t finish in the top-50 this season.
By Ray Flowers
Ichiro beats you to death with singles, Bautista with his blasts, and the San Francisco Giants pitcher’s are beating down every offense they face.
Ichiro Makes History
Ichiro Suzuki racked up his 200th hit today. There are a whole host of interesting tidbits around that effort, and here are a few.
* He has 200 hits in all 10 of his big league seasons
* He is the first player to ever have 10-straight 200 hits seasons.
* Only Ichiro and Pete Rose have had ten 200 hit seasons.
* Since the 2001 season began he has 2,229 hits. Obviously that’s an average of nearly 230 hits a year(with more than a week left in the season, he’ll clearly push that mark even higher).
* Since 2001, no other big leaguer has more than 1,906 hits – Derek Jeter.
Hats off to you Ichiro.
Jose Bautista Hits #50
Jose Bautista hit his 50th homer today, a fact that I spoke to as a forgone conclusion earlier this week in History is at Hand. Here are some tidbits surrounding the remarkable achievement from the man that hit a total of 43 homers the past three years.
* Bautista is the 26th player ever to hit 50 homers in a season.
* He has hit all 50 of his homer to left or left center.
* He has hit 31 homers at home.
* He has hit 26 homers since the All-Star break. Remember, he had never before hit even 17 in a season.
Let’s put those numbers in perspective.
Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez, Frank Robinson, Mike Schmidt, Hank Aaron, Ryan Howard and Barry Bonds never hit 50 homers in a season (Bonds is cheating – how apropos – as he hit 73 one year though he never actually had a season of between 50-72 homers).
Bautista has 31 homers at home. Here is a list of players who haven’t hit 31 homers this season no matter the locale: Ryan Howard (30), Prince Fielder (30), Mark Teixeira (30), Adrian Gonzalez (29), Matt Holliday (27) and Troy Tulowitzki (26) to name a few.
Here is a list of players who haven’t hit 26 homers, Bautista’s total in the second half in a mere 63 games: David Wright (25), Ryan Zimmerman (25), Jayson Werth (25), Alex Rodriguez (25), Matt Kemp (23), Ryan Braun (23) and Andre Ethier (23).
Yeah, I just threw up a little bit in my mouth too.
One last thought. Ichiro had his 200th hit, and Bautista hit his 50th bomb — in the same game. Don’t you love the symmetry of that?
Giants’ Starters are Aces
The Giants are a half game out of first place behind the San Diego Padres, but the blame for rests solely on the offense and not the dominating pitchers that the team has been running out there.
* The Giants have allowed three of fewer runs in 16-straight games, and that ties single season league record, since 1920 when the “live ball” was introduced. The other two teams to go 16 consecutive games were the 1972 Indians and the 1981 Athletics (the 1942-43 Reds did have a stretch of 20-games).
* The club hasn’t allowed more than four runs in 21-straight, and that is tied for the fifth longest in the live ball era, and the longest streak since the ’81 A’s. The record is 25-straight games by the 1942-43 Cubs, with the single season mark being 23 games by the 1972 Cubs.
* Since August 28th the starting rotation has posted a 2.06 ERA and held batters to a .191 batting average against.
* Over their last 10 starts the rotation has a 1.32 ERA.
So how in the world are the Giants 5-5 in their last 10 games? The blame rests squarely on an offense that he been shut out four times in 10 games. The offense has also produced one or zero runs in eight of the last 13 games.
One last note about the Giants.
They are a major league best 74-22 when they score three or more runs.
By Ray Flowers
(1) Giants trade for Mike Fontenot.
(2) Curtis Granderson to revamp swing.
(3) Ryan Braun (wrist) takes swings in the cage.
(4) Gordon Beckham (groin) back in lineup.
(5) Placido Polanco will try to play through elbow injury.
(6) Astros have trouble in the 9th inning.
(7) Matt Kemp out of the Lineup Again. Should you be concerned?
By Ray Flowers
Sometimes there are people or things that just defy conventional wisdom. (1) How does Tim Lincecum throw the ball so hard when he is so small of frame? (2) How is Albert Pujols able to post virtually identical totals every year? (3) Why is figure skating such an undeniable draw despite that fact that none of us have ever even tried it? A fourth item, the reason for this piece, is the Dodgers’ Matt Kemp who doesn’t fit into a box but continues to produce regardless.
I was on record last season saying that I felt Kemp was a bit overrated in the fantasy game. Many had him pegged as a top-10 overall option, some even higher, though I was thinking more like top-25. Turns out I was completely wrong with this one, a fact that can easily be seen in his seventh overall Player Rater ranking for his 2009 efforts.
Why did I take a position counter to what others thought? There are a couple of obvious reasons (or so I thought at the time).
(1) Kemp strikes out a ton. His career K-rate is 24.8 percent, or almost exactly once every four at-bats. It’s pretty darn difficult to hit .300 when you do that. In fact, only four men in baseball posted a K-rate of at least 25 percent and still hit .300 in 2009: David Wright (26.2, .307), Justin Upton (26.0, .300), Shin-Soo Choo (25.9, .300) and Kevin Youkilis (25.5, .305). Kemp just missed out last season hitting .297 despite the fact that he actually cut his strikeout rate down to 22.9 percent.
(2) As a result of all the strikeouts his contact rate continues to languish in the dumps. In 2008 it was 75 percent, in 2009 it was 77 percent. The major league average is about 80 percent, so as you can plainly see Kemp isn’t even average in this measure.
(3) Of course, both #1 and #2 mean his BB/K mark is poor, terrible actually, at 0.30 for his career (the major league average is about 0.50). Last year he did improve to for the third straight year — all the way up to 0.37.
All of that work, which is below average, means that Kemp relies on a hit rate of rather large proportions to attain success, and that made me nervous. The major league average for BABIP is usually in the .290-.300 range. However, players set their own baselines. By that I mean that the .300 is merely an “average” with some hitters posting a .350 mark year after year (Ichiro) while others consistently come up short. Players set their own baselines, but there just aren’t many Ichiro Suzuki’s in the world, know what I mean? Therefore, when I saw Kemp with a .374 mark in Triple-A (2007), .417 as a rookie in 2007 with the Dodgers, and .363 in his first full season in 2008, I was obviously concerned. He did dip a bit last season, all the way down to .349 (wink, wink), but that mark was still 24th in baseball.
So it’s time for me to admit what others did a year earlier – the guy does what he does, and despite some rather concerning traits, Kemp is good enough to confound what some of the traditional measures say about him. He may not go about it in the way I would like to see him do it, and he might still yet have a rough patch or two because of his approach, but overall this guy is one superior ball player. There is little reason whatsoever to think he will not produce yet another 25/25, or better, type season for the Dodgers in 2010. Plus, you gotta love the guy for always telling the press that he and Rihanna are just friends despite all the pictures of him groping her all over the place (it was just reported that they moved in together as well, so I guess they can finally drop the charade). The guy not only has “game” on the field, he clearly has it off the field as well.
By Ray Flowers
The calendar is about to flip to March, and that will signal that the fantasy baseball season is in full effect. Mock drafts will heat up to the point where you’ll start dreaming about passing up on Andrew McCutchen in the 8th round and you’ll wonder why you didn’t pull the trigger on that second closer at the end of the 15th round.
To help you as you prepare for fantasy baseball’s version of March Madness, I’ll look at Average Draft Position data from time to time. If you need a refresher course in what ADP is and why it matters, make sure you read ADP Talk – What is it?
A caveat. Make sure that whichever ADP information you are looking at is geared toward your specific league. It does you no good to look at National Fantasy Baseball Championship data if you are in a league that has only 10 teams (the NFBC has 15 team leagues. You can win over $100,000 playing in it by the way, so you might wan to check it out). To read some pertinent NFBC ADP data make sure you give a look at Jason Collette’s Talking ADP piece.
As for what follows here, I will be reviewing ADP data from 13 leagues. Each league contains 15 teams with 14 hitters and nine pitchers starting (just like the NFBC starting lineup) with standard 5×5 scoring categories. Here are some things that I noticed in the data (thanks to Geoffrey Stein for sending it along).
(1) Here is the top-10.
Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Chase Utley, Ryan Braun
Matt Kemp, Mark Teixeira, Joe Mauer, Prince Fielder and Evan Longoria.
To me, Mauer at #8 is awful. Too much growth last year for him to sustain it. Plus, catcher is such a brutal position physically.
I also question the wisdom of Teixeira at #7. I’d much rather have Miguel Cabrera at #13.
Last three years: Teixeira (.302-34-116-97-1) and Cabrera (.312-35-116-91-3).
(2) You’re going to need to get your corner infielders quickly. Of the top 33 selections, eight were first basemen and six were third sackers meaning fully 42 percent of the top-33 picks played first or third.
(3) Pitching isn’t a priority early. Tim Lincecum (#17) is the only hurler in the top-30. Here are the others in the top-50: Roy Halladay (31), CC Sabathia (34), Felix Hernandez (38), Zack Greinke (41), Dan Haren (48) and Justin Verlander (49).
(4) Catchers aren’t going early after the big-3. Mauer (#8), Victor Martinez (24) and Brian McCann (39) are the only catchers in the top-75. Next comes Matt Wieters at 78, and after that you have to go all the way down to #126 to find the next backstop – Miguel Montero.
(5) How are people evaluating players that were hurt last year? Here’s a look.
22nd overall – Jose Reyes
He’s currently the fourth SS off the board after Hanley Ramirez (2), Troy Tulowitzki (14) and Jimmy Rollins (20). I think all three should be taken before Reyes because of the reliability factor, but Tulowitzki as a first round pick? I have a real problem with that.
23rd – Grady Sizemore
Mr. 20/20 (each year from 2005-08), clearly has the faithful convinced that last year was just one of those seasons. If healthy, there is little reason to doubt that consensus, but it’s still a bit risky to spend a second round pick on Sizemore at this point.
125th – Brandon Webb
All reports are really positive that Webb looks and feels strong so far. Given his extreme consistency before last years shoulder issues someone is certainly going to be tempted to draft Webb at this point of a draft, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he ends up sneaking into the top-100 if he has no setbacks in spring. Personally, I’ll pass. Scott Baker (137) or James Shields (144) certainly seem like much safer bets to me.
So there you go. As I said, this won’t be the last time I address this issue of ADP.
And finally, with Fanball.com going completely free with our baseball coverage for the next three weeks, here are a few links to some of my recent work. Enjoy.
Breaking Down: Clayton Kershaw
Sabermetric Primer: Game Score
Sabermetric Primer: Quality Start Percentage
By Ray Flowers
The FSWA winner of the Best Baseball Series of 2011, BaseballGuys.com is the only source you will need for your fantasy baseball knowledge. OK, you might need other sources, but BaseballGuys.com should be on your daily list of must reads for the insights an analysis it provides on the world of baseball.
The co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87: M-F at 5-8 PM EDT), Ray has spent years squirreled away studying the inner workings of the fantasy game to the detriment of his personal life. Specializing in baseball, football and hockey, some consider him an expert in all three. Ray's work can also be found as feature writer for: Fantasy Alarm, Rotoinfo, Rotowire and Sports Illustrated.
You can contact Ray through e-mail at fantasyfandom@yahoo(dot)com or on Twitter.
