2011 Pitching Review – Relievers

Relief pitching, by nature of the importance placed upon the role of closer (i.e. saves), is one of the hardest positions to predict with accuracy year after year. We always have guys come out of nowhere that no one even thought about selecting on draft day (Sergio Santos, Fernando Salas, Javy Guerra, Mark Melancon), and with relievers fantasy value tied so closely to a managers decision to use a certain hurler in the 9th inning, the position is a landmine that take a lot of careful navigating. How did I do in avoiding those explosive devices in 2011? Let’s see.

To see my 2011 rankings click on Top-50 Relief Pitchers.

HITS

Jonathan Axford (#6): It can be argued that he was the most effective closer in the NL as he racked up a league leading 46 saves (tied with Craig Kimbrel), while blowing only two save chances. Toss in a 1.95 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 86 Ks in 73.2 innings and you have yourself a dominating season.

Joel Hanrahan (#10): My crowning call of the position, Hanrahan had an ADP in the late 20′s or early 30′s when I wrote my initial piece. Every bit as effective as Axford, Hanrahan had 40 saves in 44 chances, posted career best ratios (1.83 ERA, 1.05 WHIP), held batters to a .221 average, and posted an impressive K/BB ratio of 3.82.

Jonny Venters (#36): He  was one of the 10 best relievers in baseball, though his fantasy worth wasn’t that high because he only had five saves. Still, he was amazingly effective with a 9.82 K/9, a 1.84 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP and a stupendous, off the charts amazing, 5.29 GB/FB ratio.

Kenley Jansen (#39): How historic was his 2011 effort? Check out the details in Around the Horn: October 6th, 2011.

MISSES

Joakim Soria (#8): The Royals kept saying he was fine, but his performance dictated otherwise. Soria posted a three year low with an 8.95 K/9 mark, he gave up more line drive than ever before (21 percent), and for the first time had a bating average against above .220 (he finished at .259). He also saw his ERA rise by nearly two runs (4.03), posted the worst WHIP of his career (1.28) and had a four year low in saves (28).

Matt Thornton (#13): He had an epically bad first two weeks of the season, and while he recovered late in the year, the damage was done and he was never given another chance to pitch in the 9th inning. He  posted solid numbers (3.32 ERA, 9.50 K/9, 3.17 BB/9) but it was far below expectations.

Jonathan Broxton (#14): His arm just wasn’t right all year, and he eventually had to shut things down after multiple starts and stops. In the end he had seven saves in just 12.2 innings of work, needed elbow surgery to remove “loose bodies,” and now faces an uphill battle to return to significance in 2012.

Brad Lidge (#16): He was supposed to be healthy in late April, and the club didn’t trust Ryan Madson at all. Well, Lidge’s injury lingered leading to only 19.1 innings pitched (1.40 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 1.77 K/BB) while Madson excelled as a closer for the first time (32 saves in 34 chances).

Ryan Franklin (#20): I did something I never do here – I went with role over skills. What did it get you if you made the same mistake, something I ALWAYS preach against? How about one save, an 8.46 ERA, 1.84 WHIP over 27.2 innings of work.

Craig Kimbrel (#23): I wasn’t sure if he would close 100 percent of the time for the Braves which is why I had him so low on the list. Shame on me. I broke down how amazing he was in 2011 in Around the Horn: October 6th, 2011.

Alexei Ogando (#49): That’s right, how quickly things can change. At the time the original piece was written on March 10th, 2011, Ogando was still in the mix to possibly close for the Rangers (they were still contemplating using Neftali Feliz as a starter). We all know what happened as Ogando was inserted into the starting rotation and had a strong season  for the Rangers (13-8, 3.51 ERA, 1.14 WHIP).

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: April 26, 2011

photo © 2010 Phil Roeder | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are the answer to some of the quick hitters that I received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Hanley Ramirez got traded straight up for Starlin Castro. This is vetoable correct?
– @Dorman06

I hate vetoing deals. The reason is that sometimes a team would benefit from picking up a “lesser” player in a deal. If you need steals maybe it makes sense to trade Justin Upton for Michael Bourn, even if straight up the players aren’t equal. However, deals are never done in a vacuum, so unless the deal is horrifically one-sided the best course of action is usually to just let people stupidly make bad decisions and live with them. Actually, the best course of action to avoid this issue is simply to not allow trades. That way there is no funny business going on, but most people find such leagues to be boring.

In terms of this deal, I’m going to completely reverse course. This is one of those deals that simply must be vetoed. Wind back the clock four weeks. Hanley Ramirez didn’t fall out of the top-5 in any draft, no matter what the format and Castro was lucky if he was being taken in the top-100. In each of the last four seasons Hanley has been one of the top-10 fantasy performers in the game who has averaged a 5×5 line of .319-27-83-111-36. Those numbers are Hanley’s “average” effort the past four years. Even if Castro were to maintain his current pace (.357-1-11-16-3) over 150 games this season he would end up with a 5×5 line of .357-7-75-109-20. Castro will never hit .357, but even if he does he isn’t even on pace to match a “normal” effort from Ramirez.

In this case the deal should clearly be vetoed even if Hanley is currently batting .194 with no homers.

Closers. Pick two to keep and one to shop around – Brian Wilson, Jonathan Broxton, Francisco Cordero. Thoughts?
– @alistairjhogg

The problem with questions like this is the following – almost always the player or players you should keep are the ones that will bring the most value in a deal. Therefore, do you trade the “best” guy because he will bring the most in return or do you trade the inferior guys and get lesser players in return?

Wilson is the arm you have to keep. His 9.82 ERA is a total fluke as he’s had three poor outings. Wilson still has five saves in six chances and a strikeout per inning on the young season. He’s still working his way back to full health after being slowed by a side issue in spring, but you don’t trade the majors saves leader from the past three years (127, five more than K-Rod), unless you get a huge return.

Cordero gets saves, he’s had at least 34 in each of the past four years, but his K-rate continues to plummet. After posting a 12.22 mark in 2007 we’ve seen it dip to 9.98, 7.83, 7.31 and 7.00 this season. Given that he’s walking 4.00 batters per nine this year which would be a 4th straight year of least four, you need to realize that the end is coming. Sooner or later a pitching line like that will catch up to you.

Broxton has struggled. His fastball is three mph down from where it was in 2009 (97.8), and that is a big concern. Even more concerning is his current 6.97 K/9 mark. I have to think that is a sample size thing though – he’s never been below 10.54 per nine in his career. Even more disconcerting is his 6.10 BB/9 mark. Unless you’re Carlos Marmol you cannot have success issuing that many free passes. At the same time Broxton is still generating a solid 1.56 GB/FB mark, and there is no way in the world that batters will continue to square him up this well all year (he’s allowing a 34.3 percent line drive).

Keep Wilson and Broxton. If you tried to trade the Dodger right now you likely wouldn’t get much for him anyway as people would be fixated on his ERA (4.35) and WHIP (1.84).

Should I drop Ervin Santana for Scott Baker?
– @zaktraut

It’s so funny. It’s like people have all of a sudden discovered Baker as I’m literally getting 20 questions a day about him on Twitter. Just to prove that I’m not Johnny Come Lately with Baker, I’d point you to a piece I wrote last year in October titled Pitchers: Not as Bad as You Thought in which I suggested that everyone keep an eye on Baker in 2011. Baker has always had the skills to be an elite level performer, but he has never been able to put it all together. Will he be able to this year? That remains to be seen, but it cannot be argued that he is off to a fantastic start (3.24 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 8.64 K/9, 3.00 K/BB ).

Santana has been one of those odd every year performer (look at his win totals the last five years – 16, 7, 16, 8, 17). However, he posted a four year low in his K/9 rate (6.83) last year, continued to give up his fair share of long balls (1.09 per nine) and was hit pretty hard with a 22.1 percent line drive rate. This year he’s upped the K-rate to 7.71 while dropping his walk rate way down to 2.20 per nine, but the outward results are poor (he’s 0-3 with a 5.51 ERA). Clearly he has pitched better than the results this season. Let’s compare the two righties by looking at their career numbers.

S. Baker: 4.29 ERA,, 1.27 WHIP, 7.12 K/9, 3.36 K/BB, 0.76 GB/FB, 1.19 HR/9
Santana: 4.43 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 7.22 K/9, 2.53 K/BB, 0.86 GB/FB, 1.15 HR/9

I want Baker even with the career numbers showing the matchup to be a toss up. I’ve said it before. One of these years it’s all going to come together for Baker and when it does, watch out.

Would you drop Matt Thornton or Sean Burnett for Ryan Franklin?
– @JSam85

I’ve written and talked about this many times, and I always say the same thing – give me skills over role and eventually I’ll come out ahead. With the massive changes we’ve already witnessed in the 9th inning this year, I wrote about this situation in The Closer Conundrum, it’s never been more obvious to me that my position is the right one. It may not always result in saves or me winning a league, but in the long run I’ll come out ahead more times than not, especially since we have no idea what managers will do in the 9th inning.

ROLE: Right now the pitcher to own would appear to be Burnett. Drew Storen is coming hard and appears to have pretty much locked down the 9th inning job with the Nationals, but Burnett figures to at least get some work in the 9th. Thornton was so bad early on that he’s likely nowhere near the 9th for the Sox, and with Mitchell Boggs looking strong, I wouldn’t expect to see Franklin closing games any time soon.

SKILLS: You may not want to hear it given his horrible start, but the best pitcher of this group in terms of skills is Thornton, and it’s not even up for an argument. Let’s look at each hurlers numbers since the start of the 2009 season.

Burnett: 7.68 K/9, 2.31 K/BB, 6.78 H/9, 10.38 BR/9
Franklin: 5.98 K/9, 2.41 K/BB, 7.86 H/9, 10.75 BR/9
Thornton: 11.28 K/9, 3.98 K/BB, 7.15 H/9, 10.18 BR/9

Are you going to let 6.2 innings of poor work from Thornton wipe out three fantastic seasons (from 2007-10, amongst hurlers who tossed 200-innings Thornton was 2nd in base runners per nine innings, fourth in K/9, sixth in ERA and ninth in K/BB)? I’m not. I have no idea who will be the most valuable fantasy performer, the answer to that depends totally on whether or not each hurler’s manager allows them to pitch the 9th inning, so give me the pitcher with the best skill set – Thornton, and leave Ryan Franklin alone.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 211 and XM 147.

Mailbag: April 7, 2011

Photo by Stefanie Seskin

You asked on the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account, so here are my answers.

Ricky Romero – look to sell high or does he have the stuff to pitch like this all year? Not a keeper league – @brianmck558

I’m always one for selling high as it’s one of the best ways going to come out ahead in the long run. Question though – how can you sell high on a guy after one start? I don’t understand why everyone is freaking out this year. It seems like everyone playing fantasy baseball is ready to change their thoughts on every player on the diamond after a weeks worth of games. Wasn’t it just 10 days ago that we were all happy with our teams? Please give Around the Horn – Slow Starts a listen to help bring you down from the ledge.

As for Romero, like I said, I don’t know how one start will change his outlook in anyone’s eyes. He is what we thought he was. That is a stable, young hurler with a whole lot to like. In his second full season last year Romero upped his K/9 mark to 7.46, dropped his BB/9 mark to 3.51 and upped his GB/FB rate to 2.08. Add all of that together and you have a pitcher, who if anything, may have been slightly undervalued on draft day 2011.

Matt Thornton still safe for CWS? If not, whose the next in line? Chris Sale? – @atlnagel

Here we go again. Unfortunately some people will worry about their relievers now that we’ve seen the Angels totally panic with their 9th inning role (see Diamond Musings). Matt Thornton will be fine and he will hold on to the 9th inning role all year long in my opinion. For those of you who have forgotten, here is how Thornton ranks amongst all big league pitchers who have thrown 200-innings the past three years.

2nd in base runners per nine innings (9.58)
Fourth in K/9 (10.91)
Sixth in ERA (2.70)
Ninth K/BB (4.03)

I’ve said it before, but I truly think he is the best left-handed reliever in baseball, and the numbers certainly seem to support that position.

AL-only league. Should I drop Mark Buehrle for Jake Arrieta? – @canebluedevil

One of the most consist hurlers in the game, Buehrle had a rough spring and has followed that up with two less than exciting outings to start the year. Still, you know what you are going to get with him. (1) You’ll get at least 10 wins. He’s done that for 10-straight year. (2) You’ll get lots of innings as he has thrown at least 200-innings in each of the last 10 years. Moreover, Buehrle is the only pitcher in baseball who has hit both of those marks each of the past 10 years. (3) You’ll get a pitcher who is fairly certain not to hurt you in ERA (his mark has been 4.00 three of the past four years). There is no upside, but there would appear to be little downside.

Arrieta is a wild card. What happens when/if Justin Duchscherer and Brain Matusz return to action – will Arrieta hold on to his starting spot? Arrieta throws hard but his control isn’t terrific (his BB/9 rate if we combine his work at Triple-A and the majors last year was 4.26), and that doesn’t help when your off-speed stuff grades out as nothing more than average. He’s young and would seem to have the brighter future than Buehrle, but for 2011 I think the easy call is to go with the veteran lefty from Chicago.

Albert Pujols and Brett Anderson for J.P. Arencibia, Carl Crawford and Chris Carpenter. Who gains? – @faizalkhamisa

Arencebia is a wild card. Early reports suggest that he will start three of five games. Will that be enough to generate anything other than bottom level 2nd catcher value? Probably not. Carpenter is a stud, but is his outlook that much better than that of Anderson for 2011? Check out the numbers for the last two years.

Anderson: 7.04 K/9, 2.01 BB/9, 3.36 K/BB, 3.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Carpenter: 6.80 K/9, 2.13 BB/9, 3.20 K/BB, 2.78 ERA, 1.10 WHIP

A lot closer than you thought, isn’t it?

Pujols is so good and so phenomenally consistent that I’d prefer the Pujols/Anderson side of the deal, and you know that pains me to say since I’m such a big supporter of Carl Crawford.

By Ray Flowers

Radiant Relievers

Yesterday in How to Evaluate Relievers, I gave my general theory with relievers – that is to target skills over role. While some spend their resources on draft day for Kevin Gregg and Brandon Lyon types, I’ve always been content to target power arms like Madson, Thornton and Hanrahan. Below, I’ll give my thoughts on some of the relievers I’m targeting this season – hopefully you won’t take them from me if we are in a league together.

Joel Hanrahan: This call is sort of cheating. Everyone knows who Hanrahan is, and there is at least a 50/50 chance that he will close at the start of the season for the Pirates over Evan Meek, but I love Joel’s arm (current ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central have Hanrahan at 337 and Meek at 383). Hanrahan certainly has better skills than guys being drafted ahead of him like Fernando Rodney (260), Brian Fuentes (271), Kevin Gregg (286) and Ryan Franklin (288), but people are worried about his role. Check out what Hanrahan did last year: 12.92 K/9 and 3.85 K/BB including a 13.50 K/9 and a 4.00 K/BB ratio over his last 33 appearances. I’m targeting this power righty.

Bobby Jenks: I wrote about Jenks when he signed his 2-year deal with the Red Sox in Hot Stove: Signings Galore. Most will overlook him on draft day because of the fact that he is behind Jonathan Papelbon, and potentially Daniel Bard, but Jenks was actually pretty darn good last season (check out the link for an explanation of that statement). In addition to the solid skills, I think that Jenks would be the fall back option in the 9th if Papelbon is hurt or dealt to another club, so that’s another feather in his cap.

Brandon League: In A Hip That Makes You Hop?, I broke down the Mariners’ bullpen situation and gave a litany of thoughts as to why I’m all about taking League late in drafts (397) instead of Aardsma much earlier (280). One more little diddy on League. Since he started his career in 2004 he owns a career GB/FB rate of 3.09. Amongst hurlers who have tossed at least 280-innings since then, League’s GB/FB mark is third in baseball behind Cla Meredith (3.66) and Brandon Webb (3.51).

Ryan Madson: I’m telling you, this guy is a burgeoning bullpen star. OK, he blows chunks half the time he is given a shot at pitching the 9th inning, but just look at the consistency he has brought in ERA and WHIP the last four years.

ERA: 3.05, 3.05, 3.26, 2.55
WHIP: 1.27, 1.23, 1.23, 1.04

Madson has also seen his K/9 mark rise in each of the past four seasons: 6.63, 6.91, 7.29, 9.08 and 10.87. Not surprisingly, he has seen his K/BB ratio improve each of he past three years: 1.87, 2.91, 3.55 and 4.92. Last time I checked, a K/9 of nearly 11.00 and a K/BB mark of nearly 5.00 are historically good numbers (only 12 hurlers have hit both of those numbers in the same season since the calendar flipped to 2000). Don’t be afraid to nab Madson late in drafts.

Edward Mujica: Another one of those wondrous arms from San Diego, Mujica was sent to the Marlins in the deal for Cameron Maybin (you can read about that deal in Four in One). Mujica was simply dynamic last season with a 9.30 K/9 rate and a 0.78 BB/9 rate which led to a stupendous 12.00 K/BB mark. Mujica was just the fourth pitcher in the history of baseball to have a season with a 12.00 K/BB mark while throwing at last 65 innings (Bert Dorr in 1882, Dennis Eckersley in 1990 and Mariano Rivera in 2008).

Chad Qualls: I’ve already explained why Qualls is a terrific bounce back option in Hot Stove: Rumor Mill, Dec. 29th. I look for him to rebound strongly in San Diego after signing a 1-year, $1.5 million deal.

Matt Thornton: I’m on record saying he has been the best left-handed reliever in baseball the past three years. I’ll let the numbers speak for themselves.

2008-10: 16-10, 2.67 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 11.01 K/9, 4.15 K/BB, 6.60 H/9 in 200.1 IP

Dominating.

By Ray Flowers

How to Evaluate Relievers

About two weeks ago I wrote How to Evaluate A Player in which I described a quick and easy way to evaluate players performance. That piece dealt only with hitters. In today’s article I’ll detail some of the key points you’ll want to consider when you are attempting to evaluate relief pitchers for the 2011 fantasy baseball season.

Target Skills not Roles.
This is the hardest idiom to abide by on draft day because though it inherently makes sense to target skills, it doesn’t always result in the most fantasy value. Let me address that “fantasy value” issue first.

There are five main categories in fantasy baseball for pitchers: wins, ERA, WHIP, Ks and saves. Obviously only reliever can pick up saves, and that marks “closers” as premium targets on draft day. However, there are many issues associated with this.

(1) Closers don’t hold their roles all season in many cases making it a volatile position to predict with any certainty.

(2) There are always a handful of guys who rack up large save totals that come completely out of nowhere (think John Axford who had 24 saves last year despite having only 7.2 innings of big league experience prior to the start of the season).

(3) Closers often rack up saves despite pedestrian results.

Francisco Cordero had 40 saves despite a 1.43 WHIP.
Bobby Jenks had 27 saves with a 4.44 ERA.
Ryan Franklin had 27 saves with a mere 5.82 K/9 mark.

(4) Having success closing games year-to-year is much harder than you would think. If a guy had 20 saves he’d probably be considered a low end second reliever, right? Do you know how many hurlers have saved 20 games in each of the past three seasons? The answer is only 12. Simply, it’s a very volatile, and variable, position – closing that is.

(5) Pitching the ninth inning to gain a save is a random event that is nearly impossible to predict. Factors that you have to take into account include:

* Did the offense score enough to gain the lead, without scoring too much to get past the limit for saves (3 run lead).

* Which reliever will be called on? Will the manager go with his best arm? Will he play the righty/lefty matchup game? Will he lean on the veteran who has been there and done that even though he hasn’t been pitching well? Will the manager give his reliever some rope and allow him to remain in the game if he lets people on base?

And that last point is really the main point of this whole exercise. In many cases its patently obvious which reliever a team should turn to in the 9th inning. However, that doesn’t always mean that team does the right thing and slots their most effective reliever in a 9th inning role. The bottom line is that there is no way to predict the opportunities than any reliever will be given, nor is there any way to get inside the head of a manager to understand how he will deploy his pitchers from game to game.

Therefore, this is what I recommend – target skills not roles.

Skills aren’t susceptible to the whim of a manager.
Skills aren’t dependent on the game situation.
Skills pay the bills.

What skills should you look for? A quick primer follows.

Target at least a 7.50 K/9 mark.
You need a reliever who can get out of a jam with a punchout. Also, the fewer balls that are put in play, the better the chance is that the batter won’t produce a hit (a brilliant statement I know).

Target a BB/9 mark below 3.00.
You can’t have a reliever come into a game searching for the strike zone.

Those two simply targets may not seem like much, but adhering to just those two categories and their benchmarks will likely help you from rostering relievers that will not hurt your ratios. Amongst relievers that tossed 60-innings last year, here are the only names that racked up a K/9 mark over 7.50 with a BB/9 mark under 3.00.

Casey Janssen
Matt Thornton
Sean Burnett
Rafael Soriano
Joaquin Benoit
Luke Gregerson
Joakim Soria
Neftali Feliz
Darren Oliver
Kyle Farnsworth
Edward Mujica
Matt Belise
Billy Wagner
Sergio Romo
Rafael Betancourt
Hong-Chih Kuo
Joba Chamberlain

That’s a pretty darn small list isn’t it?

There is obviously more to pitching than this simply review, but in terms of relief pitchers this type of data is extremely relevant. Also make sure you keep an eye on the GB/FB column, I’d look for numbers of 1.25 or better there if you can (big flies are murder on relievers).

At the end of the day there are very few “locks” at the closers position. After the first 20 or so guys are off the board I think it makes more sense to roster high skill relievers with major upside versus slacker relievers who are lined up to begin the year as the closer for their team. Sooner or later the lack of skills will doom those guys to mediocrity while your “skills guys” should continue to have success no matter what role they are asked to fill .

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September 9, 2010

(1) Drew Stubbs is a fantasy ace.

(2) Jose Valverde right elbow tenderness.

(3) Bobby Jenks has ulner neruitis.

(4) In my By the Numbers piece today, I gave a bunch of interesting numbers. Here is a review of a few including history possibly being set by Mat Latos, Dan Uggla and Carlos Pena.

(5) Carlos Gonzalez on fire – but poor on the road this season.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 5, 2010

(1) Russell Martin could be done for year.

(2) Carlos Santana is done for year.

(3) Kevin Youkilis done for year.

(4) Kris Medlen likely done for year.

(5) Matt Capps, Bobby Jenks and Jose Valverde all blow games.

(6) Jason Bay not close to a return.

(7) Will we see Carlos Delgado again?

(8) I love numbers, and in By the Numbers I point out some off the most interesting ones I’ve come across in the past 24 hours.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July 22, 2010

(1) Angels deal for Alberto Callaspo, give up Sean O’Sullivan and William Smith. Rick Ankiel activated.

(2) Jamie Moyer has sprained UCL (grade 2), might need TJ Surgery.

(3) Roy Oswalt, Dan Haren, Brett Myers, Ted Lilly on the block.

(4) Edison Volquez lit up by Nationals.

(5) Josh Johnson, 13-straight starts two or fewer earned runs.

(6) Bobby Jenks removed from closers role.

(7) Brian Roberts could return as early as Friday.

(8) Jacoby Ellsbury takes BP.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May26, 2010

(1) Jacoby Ellsbury might be headed back to the DL.

(2) Bobby Jenks continues to struggle in 9th. Is it time for Matt Thornton?

(3) Brian Roberts to report to work on Friday.

(4) Carlos Ruiz dealing with some shoulder pain.

(5) J.A. Happ still a ways away from return.

(6) Max Scherzer finding his groove in minors.

By Ray Flowers

MIC WARS

It’s my birthday today. I know, I know, those of you that know me knew I was a fool without need of the support of the day of my birth being April Fool’s Day, but there certainly is some nice symmetry here is there not?

With that, I thought I would move on to some actually baseball talk. Dave Gawron organized what we hope will be the first annual MIC WARS. What is MIC WARS? Simply it’s a 12-team mixed league, using 5×5 scoring, that includes 12 shows that talk baseball on Blog Talk Radio (you can find my show, which I do each day with Kyle Elrink, at 8-9 AM PST, Mon. – Fri., or you can check out the archive at The Fantasy Buffet). Before moving on to my team, here is a link to Dave’s review of the entire draft so you can see how it played out. And here is Team Fantasy Buffet (I have the #4 pick in the snake draft that starts 14 hitters, and nine pitchers).

C: Kurt Suzuki (14), Carlos Santana (25), Adam Moore (26)
1B: Derrek Lee (7), Lance Berkman (10)
2B: Jose Lopez (8), Howie Kendrick (9)
3B: Pablo Sandoval (3), Casey Blake (24)
SS: Alexei Ramirez (11), Ian Desmond (23)
OF: Ryan Braun (1), Jacoby Ellsbury (2), Jason Bay (5), Andrew McCutchen (6), Corey Hart (16), David DeJesus (28), Desmond Jennings (29)

SP: CC Sabathia (4), James Shields (12), Jonathan Sanchez (13), Jered Weaver (15), Aaron Harang (21), Brett Myers (30)
RP: Brad Lidge (17), Octavio Dotel (18), Ryan Madson (19), Chris Perez (20), Matt Thornton (22), Joba Chamberlain (27)

C: Suzuki is s top-5 option, and while Santana and Moore may not have starting spots, I bet the duo combines for at least 400 highly effective at-bats.

1B: Two grey beards, but both are capable of 25 homers, 100 RBI and 90 runs scored. I’ll take that all day.

2B: Lopez will likely also qualify at third, which is why I took him over Dan Uggla. As for Kendrick, I was tempted to wait and try and target Rickie Weeks later in the draft, but I just couldn’t pass on Kendrick who could hit .300 while going 15/15.

3B: Sandoval is money, plus he’s the Kung Fu Panda and plays for my favorite team. Casey Blake is boring yet highly efficient, and he is a more than adequate backup at third.

SS: Alexei Ramirez may never have that 20/20 season, but I’ll take a repeat of last year (.277-15-68-71-14). Desmond is a bit of a wildcard, but it looks like he will open the year as the Nationals starter at short and could very well surprise given his draft position.

OF: Braun and Ellsbury is a dynamic duo. Bay is as steady as they come as the only OF who in four of the last five seasons has hit 30 homers with 100 RBI, 100 runs and 10 steals. McCutchen could blow up and is a wonderful 4th OF, better than a few teams #2 option, and don’t believe the Hart will be platooned talk out of Milwaukee, it ain’t gonna happen. DeJesus is boring but a fine 6th outfielder, and though Jennings has little value at this point, he could be a beast on the base paths if the Rays gave him a shot at playing time.

SP: I normally never take a starter early, but when Sabathia was still there at pick 45 – his ADP is 29 – I thought it was a nice value play. Shields and Weaver are steady, and Sanchez, well, I have high hopes for that kid which you can read about at Taking Sides – Starters. Harang and Myers may not be exciting, but if every breaks right I could get 300 Ks and an ERA below 4.00 from the duo – really.

RP: If you have ever seen a better group of bullpen arms assembled on one team, I would be flabbergasted. If all of these arms are healthy, the unit could sport a K/9 rate of about 10, a massive mark. Lidge is certainly an open question at the start of the year, but I handcuffed that selection by taking Madson who should fill in until Lidge is healthy. Perez will get some saves with Kerry Wood out, Dotel appears locked in the 9th for the Pirates, Thornton may be the best middle reliever in baseball, and you watch Joba dominate in the pen.

This team has some electric arms, a few grizzled vets on offense, and a boat load of talented youngsters. Who knows how the team will end up at the season’s conclusion, but I really love the mix at this point.

By Ray Flowers