Draft Day Challenge, May 2

Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter.

@MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Matt Wieters
2. A.J. Pierzynski

Wieters is always a strong option. He’s only faced Blanton three times but he has two hits. He’s also driven in five runs in his last four games.

I gotta be honest. It’s really hard to find a viable option at catcher Thursday based on matchups. Pierzynski is only 5-for-14 in his career, and he’s been hurt of late, but it’s against his former team so maybe he summons something special.

FIRST BASE
1. Mitch Moreland
2. Edwin Encarnacion

Mr. Moreland is batting .429 the past week with nine hits, including four doubles, in 21 at-bats. He faces Mr. Peavy, and their history only includes six at-bats. Moreland has stroked a hit three times, twice going deep, on his way to five RBIs.

Encarnacion has blasted five homers, driven in eight runs and has scored seven times the past seven days. He’s only 1-for-11 against Ryan Dempster.

SECOND BASE
1. Dustin Pedroia
2. Omar Infante

Pedroia is hitting .435 the past week. He’s hitting .330 on the year. He’s hit .309 in his career against lefties. He faces lefty J.A. Happ of the Blue Jays.

The Tigers face Jordan Lyles in his first appearances of the 2013 season (he owns a 5.20 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over 235.1 big league innings). Infante is batting .381 with two homers and seven runs scored over his last 23 plate appearances.

THIRD BASE
1. Chase Headley
2.Manny Machado

Headley went deep Wednesday and he could keep the good times a rollin’ Thursday against Travis Wood a hurler he has beaten for six hits, including two big flies, in 12 at-bats.

Machado faces Mr. Blanton. Machado also has scored seven times the past week while batting, get this, .406 with an OPS of 1.112. He’s hot, hot, hot.

SHORTSTOP
1. Elvis Andrus
2. Yuniesky Betancourt

Andrus has had a disappointing start to the year. But things are slowly improving. He’s hitting .292 the past week and he faces Peavy whom he has four hits against in 12 at-bats.

Betancourt has four homers and seven RBIs in the past week. It’s a mirage. Maybe he can keep it going for another day against J. Westbrook whom he has gone 8-for-22 against in his career (.364).

OUTFIELD
1. Nick Markakis
2. B.J. Upton

Markakis faces the very hittable Joe Blanton Thursday, a righty whom he has rapped six hits against in 12 at-bats (he also driven in four runs).

It all starts today. Upton remembers he’s an elite talent. He faces homer prone Dan Haren who has, shockingly, given up homers to Upton. In 31 at-bats Upton is hitting .323, but it’s the five homers that really stick out.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Kyle Kendrick
2. Travis Wood
3. Ervin Santana
4. Jake Westbrook

Kendrick is the type of pitcher I avoid in roto leagues, he’s got soft skills, but if you’re looking at a one day matchup it’s not always so clear cut. Over his last four starts he is undefeated with a 1.29 ERA an a WHIP under 1.00. Now he faces the Marlins. He’s also 8-0 with a 2.15 ERA against the Marlins since 2010. Nuff said.

Wood has lasted at least six innings in all five of his starts and never allowed more than two earned runs. The Padres are not an offensive juggernaut by any means either.

Santana is 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA and 1.00 WHIP the past three weeks. He plays in an early game, so hopefully you get this news on the quick. He faces a Rays club that is 10th in the AL in runs, is batting .244 with a .311 OBP, and one that has had long stretches of ineffectiveness.

I wrote earlier this week to sell Jake Westbrook in Surgers and Slumpers, so why am I suggesting you start him Thursday? Remember, we’re talking one start here, not 25. Westbrook does have an ERA under 1.00, and he faces Wily Peralta of the Brewers who hasn’t exactly been lights out. Westbrook also has a 3.06 ERA in his eight career starts against the Brew Crew.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to the site.

By Ray Flowers

Draft Day Challenge, April 11

Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out. With that, here are some of the better plays for Tuesday, April 11th.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

CATCHERS
1. Matt Wieters
2. Tyler Flowers

Wieters is only 1-for-12 against Alfredo Aceves in his career, a bad looking matchup on the surface. However he has hit .292 in 233 at-bats against the Red Sox, and 12 at-bats isn’t a huge amount to draw on.

Flowers faces Dan Haren, he of the 32 homers allowed in his last 31 starts. Flowers has 20+ homer power and has two bombs in 22 at-bats this season. He has gone 10 at-bats without a hit though.

FIRST BASE
1. Brandon Moss
2. Kendrys Morales

Moss has two homers and nine RBIs the past two days, and he’s also registered 10 hits in his last 17 at-bats (.588). Doesn’t matter who is on the hill right now (it’s Jason Vargas who he has one hit in three at-bats against).

Morales has nine hits in his last 20 at-bats including three doubles and a home run as he has knocked in five runs. He faces Justin Grimm, he of the 14 career big league innings during which time he has allowed 14 runs.

SECOND BASE
1. Jeff Keppinger
2. Dustin Pedroia

Keppinger will be facing the struggling Dan Haren whom he has eight hits against in 16 career ABs including a big fly.

You can pretty much always go with Pedroia, but this is a solid matchup. He’s hit .364 against Chris Tillman in 11 at-bats. He’s currently hitting .323. The last three years he has hit .303 at Fenway. Lock and load.

THIRD BASE
1. Manny Machado
2. Alberto Callaspo

Manny hit a game winning home run Wednesday, and though he’s struggled this season he has hit a bit better versus righties than lefties (1-for-9 vs. lefties). Machado faces spot starter Alfred Aceves Thursday.

Callaspo has hit .283 against righties the past three years. He’s got five hits in 11 at-bats against righties this season. He faces righty A.J. Griffin Thursday.

SHORTSTOP
1. Elvis Andrus
2. Alexei Ramirez

Andrus has produced 16 hits in 51 at-bats against King Felix, a .314 batting average. He’s also driven in eight runs in the matchup. Maybe the matchup will help him out of his current slump (four hits in 21 at-bats).

Ramirez faces a struggling Dan Haren who has he two hits in eight at-bats against. Is that enough of a reason to start the consistently solid Ramirez?

OUTFIELD
1. Coco Crisp
2. David Murphy

Crisp is hitting .364 with a homer in 33 at-bats against Jason Vargas. He’s also hitting .444 with four homers, four doubles, and six RBIs the last seven days.

Murphy has a whopping 63 at-bats against Felix Hernandez in his career, and he’s dong very well despite 15 Ks. When he isn’t whiffing he’s pounding out hits as evidenced by his .302 average, two homers and 10 RBIs.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. A.J. Griffin
2. Jason Marquis
3. Zack Greinke
4. Dylan Axelrod

Griffin had a 2.90 ERA on the road last season and he get’s to take on an Angels club, in Anaheim. The A’s have also scored 18 runs in their last two games as their offense is humming giving you a warm feeling about Griffin getting plenty of run support.

Marquis has held current Dodgers batters to a .242 average and two homers over 128 at-bats (Matt Kemp is only 2-for-17 off Jason in his career). Marquis is also 6-4 with a 2.64 ERA in 14 career starts against the Dodgers.

Greinke has held the Padres to a .250 batting average in 48 at-bats. The Padres only have one player with 20 at-bats that is hitting .270. They also have only three homers in 264 at-bats. Greinke also looked sharp in his first outing (0 ER in 6.1 IP).

Axelrod… hey, there aren’t that many options to turn to with a lot of early games. The Nats are 6-2 on the year and they are a solid offense, so this is more likely a shot in the dark you should avoid, than solid advice. At least I’m honest.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

By Ray Flowers

Mock Draft: Talking Pitching Early

In fantasy baseball circles I’m known as the ‘anti-pitcher’ guy. I tell people all the time that in re-draft leagues there is no reason to take a pitcher at the top of a draft, and I practice what I preach (see how my staff turned out in the recent FSTA Experts Draft where I waited until the 8th round to take my first hurler). I know though that many others disagree with that line of thought. So for the sake of thoroughness and seeing both sides of the coin, I decided to flip my traditional script on its ear and go pitching early in a draft. Not only did I go pitching early, I went bonkers with pitching early.

I was invited by Cory Schwartz of MLB.com to participate in a 15 team mixed league (23 rounds with 14 hitters and nine pitchers, but no bench). I drew the 13th pick in the draft and thought, what the hell, I’m taking a hurler in the first round to see how my team would turn out since I know so many of you are drafting hurlers in the first round. I took Clayton Kershaw. When my second turn came up, pick #18 overall, guess which dominating righty was still available? If you said Justin Verlander you are correct. If you said that I did the unthinkable and took Verlander as well… you’d be right again. Not only did I blow past my ‘never take a pitcher in the first round’ strategy, I multiplied the pitching love by grabbing the top two arms in the game with my first two selections. How did my team turn out? Let’s take a look.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

C: Matt Wieters (6th round), John Jaso (17)
1B: Adrian Gonzalez (4)
2B: Marco Scutaro (20)
3B: Pablo Sandoval (5)
SS: Alcides Escobar (11)
MI: Josh Rutledge (12)
CI: Adam LaRoche (14)
OF: Jay Bruce (3), Nelson Cruz (7), Carl Crawford (8), Shane Victorino (9), Nick Markakis (10)
UT: Brett Gardner (16)

STARTING PITCHERS: Clayton Kershaw (1), Justin Verlander (2), Tim Hudson (15), James McDonald (18), Wandy Rodriguez (19)

RELIEF PITCHERS: Jason Grilli (13), Sean Marshall (21), David Robertson (22), Bobby Parnell (23)

I certainly went as big as one could in the first two rounds on the hill, but then I didn’t take another arm until the 13th round, and my third starter didn’t come until the 15th (I would bet many who do go big early on pitching then sit back and wait to fill out their staff with the thought being that they got a stud or two early so now they can afford to wait). This was only a 23 round draft, there were no bench rounds, so you can be assured that at least two, possibly three, of my bench spots would have been devoted to starting pitchers to round out the group. Still, with the two best arms in baseball at the top, a strong ratio guy (Hudson), a potential 180 K guy (McDonald), and a cheap/solid arm (Wandy), I like this group given the constraints I was working under.

I also love my bullpen arms. You might be saying to yourself ‘but Ray you only have one closer,’ and that’s fair, but look at those four arms. That quartet of relievers should be good for 10 strikeouts per nine innings. They are also likely to flat out kill it in ERA and WHIP. In fact, that foursome could very easily dust both Kershaw and Verlander in ERA, WHIP, K/9… and they have the chance to pick up a few saves as well. Basically, if everything goes according to plan, I’ll win Ks, ERA and WHIP. Wins, should be solid enough, and with an injury or poor performance here or there I could get some lucky saves love as well. Remember, only 23 round in this draft, so there would be plenty of time to add more depth to a unit that is filled with power arms in the reserve rounds.

So the staff is impressive. What about the offense, is it offensive like stinky cheese?

My duo at catcher is strong. In a 15 team league to get a duo that is capable of doing the things of Wieters and Jason – gotta like that.

A-Gone is about as good a bet to go .300 with 100 RBIs as any first baseman in baseball not named Pujols or Votto. Sandoval is a potential .300-25 guy at the other corner if he can avoid that third helping of plantains at dinner (his career bests would leave him with a .330-25-90 line). Up the middle I’ve got solid but boring Scutaro. He’s not likely to blow blast past .300 this year (see his Player Profile). Escobar is a solid add for the speed, but there are some questions about his overall game (see his Player Profile). At corner infield LaRoche is boring but does he ever put up numbers in the counting categories. Rutledge doesn’t have a big league season under his belt, but there’s 15/15 potential there.

The outfield is solid. I’ve got Bruce and Cruz for some pop, and then went all-around game with Crawford and Victorino. Questions abound about what Crawford has left to give, and if Victorino can hang on for another season (see his Player Profile), but if they are both healthy there no disputing that the results could potential lead to a bounty of offense. Markakis isn’t a big name, but since most of the big names went off the board while I was grabbing my two arms, he was a strong fallback play for my squad. Ditto on Gardner who people forget averaged 48 steals and 92 runs scored in 2010-11.

So to wrap it up. The offense has solid speed (Gardner, Escobar, Victorino and Crawford). There’s some decent pop but nothing over the top. I had to take chances on talent that was coming back from injury as the depressed value allowed the fellas to be available for me to roster well later than they would be if they were coming off a healthy 2012 (Sandoval, Crawford, Markakis, Gardner). If that foursome of players all play 150 games then this offense will be pretty decent for a 15 team league.

Is it a perfect team? No sir. Is it a solid enough team that I could compete with it? I think the answer is yes. However, there are certain health risks on offense, and how those players perform in 2013 will likely determine how this team will ultimately finish after I spent my top two picks on the best lefty-righty duo anyone in the fantasy game could put together in 2013..

For the full results click on the link to MLB.com Draft.

MLB.com_SlowDraft-RESULTS

Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Positional Review – Catchers

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

2012 CATCHER Top-10

1 Carlos Santana
2 Mike Napoli
3 Matt Wieters
4 Brian McCann
5 Joe Mauer
6 Miguel Montero
7 Buster Posey
8 Alex Avila
9 Yadier Molina
10 J.P. Arencebia

Santana had a monster second half (.281-13-46-41 in 74 games) that helped him to a strong season in the counting categories (18 HRs, 76 RBIs, 72 runs) even if his batting average of .252 was disappointing. He was the only AL catcher to go 15-75-70.

Napoli had 24 homers exactly matching his 2008-11 average. Too bad he also hit a career worst .227 with his lowest RBI total in three years (56 after years of 68 and 75).

Wieters had an impressive season with 23 homers and 83 RBIs. He was the only catcher in the AL go go 20-80. Like Santana above though, he failed to live up to expectations in the batting average category at .249.

McCann recorded 20 homers for the fifth straight year and six time in seven seasons, but that was his only highlight. He failed to record 70 RBIs, with 67, for the first time ever (not counting his 180 at-bat first season). He scored 44 runs, his first time under 50 ever (other than his abbreviated first season). He hit a career worst .230, only .049 points below his career average. Obviously his injured shoulder was a major issue. Hopefully surgery will fix what ails him but he may not be 100 percent by the start of the 2013 season.

Mauer, in retrospect, should have been ranked higher as he did what he always does. Mauer led all AL catchers in batting (.319) an all catchers in OBP (.416). He was also the only catcher in baseball to score 80 runs (he had 81), he went deep 10 times and drove home an AL position leading 85 runners and stole eight bases for good measure.

Montero started slowly hitting .252 with two homers in his first 41 games, but he closed like gangbusters leading to a second straight season hitting .280 with 15 homers, 85 RBIs and 65 runs scored (.286-15-88-65).

Posey will likely win the NL MVP, but don’t forget that he was coming off a significant leg injury causing everyone to doubt whether or not he would ever return to his previous glory. Boy did he return all right, and then some. Posey led baseball with a .336 batting average while going deep 24 times with 103 RBIs, while he had a .408 OBP an an over the top .956 OPS. He was the most dominating catcher in the game, and if someone tells you otherwise stop talking to them about baseball cause they are a moron.

Avila was a total stinker. He lost 10 homers (down to nine), 34 RBIs (down to 48), 21 runs (down to 42), .042 points in batting average (down to .242) and .155 points in OPS (down to .736). A miserable season that leaves in doubt whether or not he will ever get back to his 2011 levels (.295-19-82-63).

Molina played superb defense, and this season his offense reached never before seen heights with career bests in all the fantasy categories (.322-22-76-65-12). A truly remarkable fantasy season for a player who most had ranked 5-8 spots lower than me.

Arencebia’s season was marred by an injury that limited him to just 347 at-bats, 96 fewer than 2011. He still socked 18 homers with 56 RBIs but he continued to K a ton (108) while never walking (18 free passes) leading to an unacceptable average (.233) and OBP (.275).

Hit: Ryan Doumit (#15), Wilin Rosario (#28)
I singled Doumit and Rosario out as two of my players to target at the position this year after the top-10 were off the board. Boy did they deliver. What did I think that Doumit could do this year? In his Player Profile I wrote the following: “Per 450 at-bats, a total Doumit should reach in 2012 if he can stay healthy, the average Doumit season has produced a 5×5 line of .271-15-61-54-2.” He went .275-18-75-56-0 in 484 at-bats. Rosario led all catchers with 28 homers – in just 396 at-bats. He also knocked in 71 runners and scored 67 times himself in a truly dominating effort that cost you peanuts on draft day.

Miss: Alex Avila

 By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Beat – Looking at the Mound

Trevor Ray and Justin Fensterman discuss some surprise pitchers this season and some good spot starters down the stretch:  Matt Wieters, Ryan Reynolds, Kris Medlen, Hisashi Iwakuma, Zach Britton, Jason Hammel, Jeremy Guthrie and Chris Archer.

LISTEN TO THE AUDIO.

Mailbag: June14, 2012

Each week on Thursday I’ll answer questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

What order would you have Jordan Zimmerman, Matt Moore and Jeremy Hellickson in a 5×5 points keeper league?
– @butlertj2002

Zimmerman posted a 3.18 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in his return from Tommy John surgery last year, and he’s picked right up where he left off with a 2.91 ERA and 1.09 WHIP through 12 starts this season. Extremely consistent, Jordan hasn’t allowed more than four runs in an outing this season, has permitted one run in half his starts 12 starts, and he’s lasted at least six innings every time he’s taken the hill. Why the success? One of the main reasons is that he just doesn’t beat himself. After walking a mere 1.73 batters per nine last year he’s dropped that number even further down to 1.51 per nine this year. If he can keep up that rate, and somehow hold on to the increase he’s working on in the ground ball rate from last season (his GB-rate is up to 52 percent) not much will likely be able to slow him down.

Moore has disappointed many with his 4.59 ERA and 1.46 WHIP but that’s because, frankly, expectations were too high with the rookie. Things are looking up though. In five of his last six starts he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs as his ERA has come down more than a run as he’s finally appeared to lock himself in on the hill. It’s not all lollipops and candy corn’s, he’s walking an unacceptable 4.33 batters per nine innings and he’s giving up a whopping 1.44 homers per nine innings, but there is still a lot going on here to really like, including the 9.31 K/9 rate that neither Hellickson or Zimmerman will ever be able to match.

Moore’s teammate, Jeremy Hellickson, has way better ratios than the power lefty (2.65 ERA, 1.27 WHIP), but I’m still searching for a  real explanation as to how he has been so consistent since the start of last year. You hear a lot about the Rays solid defense and how Hellickson has changed how he throws his curve ball, but at the end of the day his success falls outside the realm of traditional analysis. Still, over his last 41 starts he has gone 17-12 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.19 WHIP and that’s mighty impressive in the AL East. However, that inexplicable nature that I touched on can been seen in the following categories. Over those 41 starts his K/9 is 5.77. That’s well more than a batter below the league average in that time (7.04). His BB/9 is 3.45 and that’s worse than the league average (3.10). His left on base percentage is 83 percent, well above the league average of 70 percent. His GB/FB ratio is in the 0.80 range well below the league average of about 1.10. His BABIP is in the .230′s, light years from the .290-300 range that the league average usually fits in. The bottom line with Hellickson is that he doesn’t strike out enough batters, walks too many and is below league average in his ability to induce grounders, yet somehow he never gives up the amount of hits he should and he’s able to strand runners at a rate that we’ve rarely seen over the last 25 years. We’re going on two years of that middling work in some rather major categories and still he’s posted impressive numbers, but at some point doesn’t that run of inexplicable performance have to end?

All three hurlers deserve to be kept in most keeper leagues, barring some unforeseen bounty of Verlander’s and Lee’s on your squad. Moore has the biggest strikeout arm of the mix, and therefore the highest upside in the fantasy game. Zimmerman throws more strikes that Hellickson and it’s easier for me to explain why he has success, so he goes number two. Hellickson therefore comes in third, but that’s like finishing third for Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Edition cover – he’s still hotter than the overwhelming majority of pitchers in the big leagues.

Drop Dexter Fowler to get Trevor Plouffe?
– @kangashark

This world is all about what have you done for me lately. Think about it. When the Apple iPhone XXIV comes out you know you’ll drop your old model, even though it’s working totally fine. When that new LED flat screen came out, did you give away your plasma television? When Kate Upton burst on the scene with her ample assets did you drop your previous love for… wait, that one makes sense. Getting back on topic…

Fowler hit .239 in April and people hated him.
Fowler hit .333 in May and people loved him.
Fowler has hit .235 in June and people no longer trust him.

Take the case of Plouffe.
He hit .121 in April and was dropped in AL-only leagues.
He hit .185 in May and was dropped by his mother in AL-only leagues.
He has hit .400 with six homers in 10 games in June and people think he’s the next fantasy superstar.

So how would I play this? Plouffe has two main advantages over Fowler. (1) He qualifies at third base and shortstop in all leagues and in the outfield in most leagues. That versatility is tremendously valuable. (2) He has more power than Fowler. In 465 career at-bats the former first round draft pick has 21 homers. On the flip side, Fowler has a couple of significant advantages over Plouffe. (1) Fowler has way more speed than Plouffe has his steal total of six this season doubles Trevor’s career mark. (2) Fowler will never win a batting title but his worst month this season, .239 in April, is still better than Plouffe’s career mark (.228). (3) Fowler simply has the better all-around fantasy game. It’s been an uneven ride to this point but Fowler still has the look of a guy who could go hit .270 with 20 homers, 70 RBI, 90 runs and 15 steals (his current pace).

I wouldn’t begrudge anyone adding/riding Plouffe while he is this hot, but I wouldn’t drop Fowler in order to make that happen.

Matt Wieters or Carlos Santana the rest of the season?
– @rangersjayfilm

Wieters posted a blistering .937 OPS in April but saw that number tank faster than the rapping career of Vanilla Ice with a .605 mark in May. He’s rebounded in June with a .830 mark but alas his .760 mark overall is .018 points lower than last season. On a positive level, Wieters 0.50 BB/K rate is a match for his level the past two years, and his 1.11 GB/FB ratio is spot on his mark from last season (well, it’s 0.01 off). Wieters also owns a line drive rate that is just 0.7 off last year’s level, his BABIP is down a mere .007 points while his HR/F ratio is 0.2 points up. Given that it’s hardly surprising that his current pace (23 homers, 70 RBI, 70 runs) is nearly identical to what he did last year (22 homers, 78 RBI, 72 runs).

Santana has failed to live up to the lofty expectations that were placed upon his shoulders this year as he was often taken first off the board at the catchers position. After hitting 27 homers last year he has only five in 51 games this year. He’s also on pace to fall well off said pace with 24 runs scored (he crossed the plate 84 times last year). Heck, his batting average is down .012 points to .227 and his SLG is actually down an even .100 points (his .357 mark is just barely ahead of his .351 OBP from last season). His BB/K rate remains strong at 0.76, and his line drive rate is up at 21.5 percent (it was a mere 15.4 percent last year). Oddly, even though he’s hit liners at a substantially increased rate his BABIP has only gone up .011 point to .277.

In a dynasty league, these might be the top-2 options in the game behind the dish. As for the rest of the year, I’m going to toss my support behind Santana because he qualifies at two spots (catcher, first base) and because he has a better approach at the dish, but there really isn’t a wrong answer here (to see how others view these two catchers see Fleaflicker’s catcher rankings).

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

Early Season Standouts

For some reason my fantasy baseball article today deals with players whose names all start with an “S” or lower in the alphabet. It wasn’t a plan mind you, I don’t have some deviously delectable ulterior motive, it just worked out that way. How about that?

Hector Santiago is the closer for the White Sox, a move that I didn’t understand at the time it appeared to be taking shape (see Lunacy in Chicago?). Less than two weeks in the experiment has been a success, but still, it hasn’t been smooth sailing. Santiago is three for four in converting saves but he blew his last outing and has allowed three runs over his last three innings. Even worse, the guy has already been taken yard three times in four innings on the season. He is still the White Sox arm to own if you are looking for saves, but tread carefully here cause this story is not yet ready to be made into a Hallmark Movie of the Week.

Stephen Strasburg flat out dominates hitters. Period. A prime example of this fact is that over his last 50.1 innings no one has elevated a pitching into the seats. On the negative side, everyone was weary of Strasburg because of the 160 IP limit he was placed on. Well, turns out, the 160 IP limit was completely a media driven number. The team never actually said they would limit Stephen to 160 innings. From Big League Stew over at Yahoo:

“Look, the media put (the 160-innings limit) out there, not me.” Nat’s GM Mike Rizzo said. “It probably comes from what Jordan Zimmerman pitched last year… “I don’t have a specific pitch count in my mind, a specific innings count in my mind… when we feel he’s had enough, we’re going to shut him down.”

What all of that means is that Strasburg isn’t likely to throw 200-innings this year but there also isn’t an artificial floor of 160-innings for him this season either.

B.J. Upton is finally close to a return. He was supposed to only miss a couple of days after running into Desmond Jennings, but that “couple of days” has stretched out to weeks. He went 2-for-4 Monday night and will likely appear in two more minor league games before being activated to return to the lineup on Friday against the Twins. Now might be your last chance to acquire him on the cheap. Speaking of Jennings, he does have four hits the last two days, though that has only brought up his slash line to the following levels: .250/.333/.300. I’m not going to condemn or exalt any player based on 10 games, but this is not exactly the start that Jennings owners were hoping for. In addition to that terrible slash line Jennings has also failed to go deep and he has a whopping 12Ks.

Chase Utley (knee) is improving according to the latest report from Phillies GM Ruben Amaro. Here’s the quote. “His strength seems to be improving,” Amaro said. “He’s moving forward.” Uh Ruben, what the hell does that mean? I’m improving from yesterday too since I got a good nights sleep. The Phillies continue to be, lets just say difficult, when it comes to updates with Utley. It almost feels like they are guarding the secrets to cold fusion.

Matt Wieters went bananas Monday night with three hits to raise his average to .344. Two of the hits were homers, and he also plated five runners, leaving him with four homers and nine RBI through nine games (how is he only owned in 82 percent of leagues over at Fleaflicker?). This is the type of production everyone thought was possible when he was taken 55th overall in the 2007 draft. It’s very early, but it’s possible that we’re finally witnessing the emergence of a supremely gifted talent who could, if everything breaks right, end the year as the most valuable catcher in the fantasy game.

I’ve long been a fan of Chris Young. Not the broken down hurler but the dynamic outfielder of the D’backs. Ranked #25 in the BBGuys Preseason Draft Guide in the outfield, he’s been a top-25 overall player in the early going. In point of fact, Young has been a top-5 overall performer thanks to a .405 average, five homers, seven RBI and two steals. Despite all that greatness the most amazing part of his early season heroics might be his BB/K ratio of 1.20. It won’t hold up, he’s never had a mark above 0.58, but his ratio has improved for 4-straight seasons showing the type of growth that is indicative of a player who could bust loose for a monster season.

By Ray Flowers

The Catcher’s Position

I say it every year – the catcher’s position is a field filled with landmines. There are certainly options that are elite when it comes to offensive output, but at the same time there is always an inherent risk with anyone who wears the tools of ignorance (Victor Martinez injured his knee – a torn ACL – knocking him out for the season. Was it the result of wear and tear? We may never know.). So what are my thoughts on how you should handle the catchers position, especially if you are in a league (as you should be) that has two starting backstops?

Consider the following.

Strike One.

Last year only one catcher appeared in 150 games – Carlos Santana (155).

Last year four catchers appeared in 140 games – Martinez, Alex Avila, Miguel Montero and John Buck.

Last year six catchers appeared in 130 games – Yadier Molina, Matt Wieters, Jonathan Lucroy, Kurt Suzuki, Carlos Ruiz and Miguel Olivo.

In total we have 11 catcher eligible players who appeared in 130 games, or, to put it another way, there were only 11 catchers who appeared in more than 80 percent of their teams games. How about this – there were only 11 catchers who missed as few as a month worth of games. Think about that for a moment. If you were in a 15 team league last year you had about a 50 percent chance that your starter  behind the dish missed a month worth of game action. That alone should cause you pause when you think about reaching early for a catcher. Hidden inside this digression about games played is the point I brought up at the start – that is the fact that injuries are a huge issue for a backstop. Do you really want to spend a high level pick on a player that is, in the best case scenario, going to miss 15 percent of his teams games? What if there was a fair amount of risk that even that number would be missed (i.e. another injury – think Mike Napoli who is still dealing with an ankle injury from last season)?

Strike Two.

How about this one – how many catchers stole 10 or more bases last year? The answer is zero. Moreover, only four eligible catchers even stole five bases (Russell Martin 8, Miguel Olivo 6, Chris Iannetta 6 and Santana 5). Strike two is a total lack of speed from the player who you will have fill the catcher’s position. There simply no juice at all from backstops in the steals category.

Strike Three.

How about we talk about batting average. Amongst catcher eligible players who had 400 plate appearances do you know how many hit .290? The answer is four – V-Mart (.330) Napoli (.320), Yadier Molina (.305) and Alex Avila (.295). That’s a pretty high batting mark, so let’s drop the qualification down to .275. How many catchers hit .275? The answer is just seven (add in A.J. Pierzynski .287, Carlos Ruiz .283 and Miguel Montero .282). If we drop that number down to .270 we only add two more guys (Yorvit Torrealba .273 and Brian McCann .270). So all told we’ve got nine, not nineteen but nine, catchers who had 400 plate appearances that also hit just .270. Clearly catcher isn’t the place to look for batting average help.

Strike Four.

Is there big time power at the catchers spot? The answer is not really (five catchers hit 20 homers in 2012: Mike Napoli 30, Carlos Santana 27, Brian McCann 24, J.P. Arencebia 23 and Matt Wieters 22). The reason, chiefly, is that they just don’t play enough games. There were nine other catchers who hit between 15 and 19 homers, but that makes my point for me doesn’t it? After a mere handful of guys, pretty much any catcher you will draft is going to hit you something like 15 homers. If the difference between the #6 guy at the position in homers and the #14 guys is just four homers, less than one a month, does it really matter who your catcher is? Further, there were also four more catchers who hit 14 homers (that brings the total to 18 backstops who went deep at least 14 times). The bottom line here is that there was a lot of parody at the catcher’s position, at least in terms of the power output they provide.

I know you have to take a catcher, and I know it matters who you end up with. There is no doubt that there is a significant difference between Mike Napoli and Kurt Suzuki, but my point is that I’m concerned enough about the potential injury situation to always be reluctant to spend big on a catcher. Further, with most catchers missing so much playing time, it just doesn’t make much sense to reach for a catcher. In addition, no catcher is a five category contributor which should further diminish the value of those players at the position. I’m not suggesting you wait until your stuck drafting the #19 and #23 catchers as your starters, but at the same time I’m also much more comfortable targeting catchers in the 8-15 range than I am reaching early, or waiting late, on getting my backstop duo.

Check out the link to Fleaflicker for their rankings on the catcher’s position.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Positional Review – Catchers

You remember back to March when I gave away all my position player rankings for free, right? For those of you who want to revisit my greatest hits, here’s where you would go to get all my rankings for hitters – 2011: BBGuys Hitter Capsules.

I’m nothing if not accountable, so I’ll review my top-10 predictions at each position as well as point out my biggest “hit” outside of the top-10 and my biggest “bust.” This should be fun.

Today, I’ll start with the catchers position.

2011 CATCHER Top-10
1 Joe Mauer
2 Victor Martinez
3 Brian McCann
4 Buster Posey
5 Geovany Soto
6 Carlos Santana
7 Mike Napoli
8 Matt Wieters
9 Miguel Montero
10 Kurt Suzuki

Mauer was injured from start to finish and he ended up with a .287 average, three homers and 30 RBI in 296 at-bats. It was a dismal season for a man who owns a career .323 average and a Hall of Fame bat.

V-Mart showed an astonishing lack of power with only 12 home runs, but he knocked in 103 runs while hitting .330 in what was a rather remarkable season.

McCann failed to hit .275 for the second straight year (he hit .270), and he also posted a 6-year low in RBI with 71. Still, he hit 24 homers and was the only catchers in the NL to hit more than 18 homers.

Posey‘s year ended after just 162 at-bats when he was plowed over at the plate trashing his leg. He is back to catching bullpens already and the Giants hope he will be at 100 percent by spring training next year.

Soto would have been my bust of the year if not for the failings of Mauer. Soto did hit 17 homers and knock in 54 runs, but he batted .228 while his OBP of .310 was .038 points below his career mark.

Santana was the best catcher in the AL not named Martinez. Santana, in his first full season in the bigs, was the only catcher in baseball with 20 homers, 70 RBI and 70 runs scores (27, 79 and 84). The 84 runs led the position.

Napoli was a superstar this season, and I wrote all about his efforts in Player Profile: Mike Napoli.

Wieters was one of three catcher eligible players to hit 20 homers with 65 RBI and 70 runs scored (he had 22, 68 and 72). Matt killed it in the second half hitting 14 homers with a .840 OPS in 61 games.

Montero was a rock all year for the D’backs. After hitting .294-16-59 in 2009, he was injured in 2010 and limited to 85 games. He bounced back this year with the best effort of his career (.282-18-86-65).

Suzuki was my #10 catcher because of one main reason – consistency. He did appear in 130 games for a fourth straight year, and his total of 14 homers was an exact match for his 2009-10 average, but his average fell to a career worst (.237) while he lost 37 RBI from 2010 (71) and 44 from 2009 (88).

Hit: Chris Iannetta #14
The Rockies have still never given him 350 at-bats in a season, but with 345 this year he blasted 14 homers, knocked in 55 runs and scored 51 times. Only 11 catchers in the game went 14-50-50, and only three went 14-50-50 with a .370 OBP (the others were Alex Avila and Napoli). He may have hit only .238, but he walked 70 times leading to that impressive .370 OBP.

Bust: Joe Mauer #1
What more needs to be said? He stunk.

By Ray Flowers

Overlooked Greatness

Today I’ll point out some guys that have been pretty darn amazing this year even if you really haven’t taken much notice. Greatness might be too strong a word, I’ll freely admit that, but I needed to catch your attention.

CATCHER: Matt Wieters
Finally living up to expectations, Wieters had a big year for the Orioles. He may have only hit .262, but he socked 20 homers with 65 RBI and 70 runs scored. As a result he was the only catcher in baseball who hit .260 with 20 homer and 70 runs scored.

FIRST BASE: Casey Kotchman
I know the guy hit only 10 homers, had only 48 RBI ans scored just 43 times. Those are horrible numbers for a corner infielder unless you’re in an AL-only league. But give the guy some credit. He has hit .305 over 495 at-bats. That’s a better batting average than Michael Morse (.303), Albert Pujols (.301) and Prince Fielder (.295) to name just three.

SECOND BASE: Danny Espinosa
Limited for sure, that .235 batting average and .311 OBP are awful, Espinosa has still had an impressive run. Not only did he become just the third rookie second baseman in history with 20 homers (the others were Dan Uggla with 27 and Alexei Ramirez with 21), he also stole 16 bases while scoring 72 runs. Only four second basemen hit 20 homers with 70 runs and 15 steals – Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia, Kelly Johnson and Espinosa.

THIRD BASE: Mark Reynolds
What the hell you’re saying? I know he hit .222 and struck out 192 times, but with all the injuries at third base this season his effort was mighty impressive. He was second at the position in homers with 37 (Jose Bautista had 43), 6th in RBI (86) and third in runs. Not too shabby for an afterthought to many.

SHORTSTOP: Erick Aybar
The Angels’ shortstop hit .280 with 10 homer, 59 RBI, 71 runs scored and 30 steals. Do you know how many shortstops went .275-10-50-70-30 this year? The answer is one. Even if we drop the steal total to 20, only two other men join the list – Jimmy Rollins and Starlin Castro.

OUTFIELD: Torii Hunter
I know what you’re thinking – Ray has finally hit on the neighbor’s wife one too many times, had too many drinks with an umbrella in it, and has spent too much time staring at touchdown runs the past month to remember what the hell he is talking about when it comes to baseball. I mean, didn’t Hunter hit horribly for months on end this year (.214 in April, .224 in June, .209 in July)? The answer to that is yes, Hunter did post a terrible batting average for long stretches, but that’s precisely why he was such an overlooked player this season. I’m not going to defend the league average .262 batting average, that’s a poor mark. However, did you know that Hunter will end the year with 20 homers, 80 RBI, and 80 runs scored (He has 23 homers, 82 RBI and 80 runs)? Only 15 outfielders hit all three of those marks in 2011 putting Hunter in some rather solid company despite the nauseating roller coaster ride he put his owners through.

By Ray Flowers