(1) Tommy Hanson – more tests on shoulder.
(2) Aramis Ramirez – absolutely on fire.
(3) Waiver-wire claims: Jim Thome, Heath Bell, Carlos Pena. For more see Waiver-Wire Claims.
(4) Carlos Ruiz has 5-straight two hit games.
(5) Matt Wieters showing signs of improvement.
(6) Carl Crawford finally hitting like… Carl Crawford.
By Ray Flowers
Taking a look back at 2010 and trying to project what will happen in 2011 is what we do at Fanball. To that end, Ted Carlson has been sending out assignments for the staff to rank our top options at each position for the 2011 season. Today, I’ll explain my rankings for the Top-10 Catchers for 2011.
For the other reviews in this series, click on the following links.
Top-20 SPs: Latos and Jimenez?
My Top-10
Joe Mauer – The best hitting catcher in the game, period. Mauer hit .327 with 75 RBI and 88 runs scored, not to mention a .402 OBP, in 2010. Not worth the top-15 overall selection he was taken as last season, Mauer hit just nine homers, and if we remove his anomalous 28 homers season of 2009 we find that Mauer has averaged 9.4 homers in his other five seasons (I’m not counting his six homer effort in 107 at-bats in his first season).
Victor Martinez – The last six seasons that he has accrued at least 450 at-bats he has never failed to hit at least 16 homers or to produce at least 79 RBI. Toss in that he owns a career .300 batting average and you have yourself the second best fantasy catcher in baseball.
Brian McCann – Since 2006 McCann has hit at least 18 homers with 77 RBI each season. Moreover, since 2006, McCann leads the position in homers (107), extra base hits (283) and RBI (443). A rock solid option.
Buster Posey – If you watched the Giants all year, you’re sold on Posey. If you paid close attention in the playoffs, you should be sold as well. I worried about Posey’s ability to go deep heading into the year, but 18 homers in 406 at-bats would seem to waylay that fear. The young man can hit, and it’s not a stretch to think that he could match the production of V-Mart or McCann in 2011.
Geovany Soto – The Cubs’ catcher rebounded from a down 2009 to produce some solid totals. He nearly doubled Mauer with 17 homers, knocked in 53 runs, and hit a solid .280. Soto also was third at the position in OBP (.393) while he actually led catchers with a .890 OPS (Mauer was second at .871).
Carlos Santana – His season ended when he needed knee surgery, but he should be 100 percent by opening day. If he maintained his pace from last season and had 450 at-bats in 2011 he would hit .260 with 18 homers, 66 RBI and 69 runs scored. Given that his OBP was .401 last year, you have to think that his batting average could easily climb.
Kurt Suzuki – He didn’t match his breakout 2009 effort (.274-15-88-74) hitting .242-13-71-55, but he played more than 130-games for a third straight year and was still pretty darn effective for a catcher. He’s not an elite option, but he should still, easily, be a top-10 selection.
Matt Wieters – From the penthouse to the outhouse. After hitting .288 with nine homers in 354 at-bats as a rookie, Wieters slumped to .249 with 11 homers in 446 at-bats leading everyone to bail from the bandwagon as quick as they can. I’m not – I’m holding on for dear life. Wieters walked more frequently in year two while striking out less boosting his BB/K from 0.33 to 0.50. I like that. I also think his 15.4 line drive rate should improve in 2011, and with it his .287 BABIP, allowing that average to climb as well. Buy low on this guy.
Miguel Montero – Montero was a fantasy star in 2009 (.294-16-59-61) who failed to match his production in 2010 (.266-9-43-36). However, he had to come back from knee surgery and received 128 fewer at-bats, so his production actually wasn’t substantially different. At the same time he has only one season with more than 300 at-bats, one season of an average of .270 and just one season with more than 36 runs scored. I’d like to see another strong effort from him in 2011, but he is clearly still a top-10 option.
Mike Napoli – I’d rank him higher if I knew he would get the at-bats that he deserved. However, I just feel like that won’t ever happen unless he leaves the Angels. Napoli owns a strong .831 OPS in his career, and he has gone deep at least 20-times each of the past three years despite averaging a mere 353 at-bats a season. He may only have a .251 career average, but he has hit in the .270′s two of the past three years.
By Ray Flowers
I’ve had one of those days. You know, the ones that start out promising but by 9:30 you realize it’s all already gone horribly wrong. The ironic thing is that I was joking this morning on the Fanball podcast that when it goes horribly wrong I just pull back on the Captain Morgan Rum. Little did I know I was going to need it on this day. But don’t worry I’ll bounce back on Thursday, I’ve got me a plan to really enjoy myself, so this frown will be turned upside down soon enough. What about the following players who have been struggling mightily over the past 30 days – are the going to be flashing the pearly whites or burying their face in their bent arm trying to avoid the press?
Coming into play on Wednesday night, Bengie Molina was hitting .248. As recently as May 17th, less than a month ago, he was hitting a robust .330. How is it possible to fall so hard, so fast? Molina has had five hits – total – in his last 16 games. That’s right, Molina is 5-for-54 which works out to a .093 average the past few weeks. It has to get better than that, but he has been so awful all year you can’t possibly have him active in your lineup right now unless you start two catchers, and even then you could probably do better at the moment.
Over the past 30 days, the worst hitter in the bigs who has played on a regular basis is Cliff Pennington of the A’s at .124 which is actually light years worse than the .179 mark of the aforementioned Molina. Lest you think there are only two struggling hitters in the Bay Area, Aaron Rowand has the second worst mark in baseball in that time frame at .147. That’s ugly, and there is little sign of a turnaround for either Pennington or Rowand.
Aaron Hill is hitting .170 to extend his run of horrid work at the dish. A year after hitting .286, his third season in four years of at least .286 by the way, Hill is hitting .183 on the year. That’s right, his recent run of hitting futility is only imperceptibly worse than his work over the entirety of the season. I can’t fathom how it’s possible that he currently has a 7.6 percent line drive rate which is roughly 40 percent of his career 19.3 percent mark. His season just has to turn around at some point. It’s like he’s hitting with his eyes closed.
How had has Aaron Rowand been? He’s been so pathetic that his .172 OBP is still worse than the .179 batting average of Bengie Molina’s younger brother Yadier Molina (.179). I think I’ve just about overdosed either Molina’s and Capt. Morgan. OK, maybe just on Molina’s.
Matt Wieters, nicknamed The Messiah by some in Baltimore, continues to hit more like a defrocked priest than The Savior. Wieters hasn’t even hit his weight the past 30 days at .189, and he hasn’t gone deep even one time in those 74 at-bats. For a guy with such a smooth stroke and a background that screams for domination at the dish, he has been completely clueless for most of this season.
Ichiro Suzuki is hitting .374 — oops. That is barely good enough for a fifth place finish in that time: Miguel Olivo (.394), Justin Morneau (.391), Robinson Cano (.386) and Luke Scott (.382).
Nyjer Morgan has only two RBI, the same total as Ryan Theriot – the worst amongst regulars. Juan Pierre is tied for second worst with three RBI, but that is hardly a shock given that all three of these guys make their money with their legs and with slapping the ball around the yard. However, it is amazing to think that David Murphy, of the offensively minded Rangers, has just three RBI over his last 89 plate appearances. You have to think that will change moving forward as he has the ability to drive the ball much more effectively than we have seen for the majority of the season.
So there you have it. A quick rundown of some of the worst of the worst right now. I’m off to eat a little something since I have to get something on my stomach to avoid having this rum go to my head.
By Ray Flowers
I wanted to focus on a few or the oddest news stories of Tuesday so I picked out four of those, while adding a bit of true baseball insight as I discuss the outlook of the next great one behind the dish.
Jason Marquis is 15-12 with a 3.98 ERA and 1.35 WHIP for the Rockies in what has arguably been the best season of his career. Marquis made the All-Star game as he entered the break with 11 victories and a 3.65 ERA, but his numbers have dropped since including a 4-6 record with a 4.46 ERA over his last 13 starts. Even worse, his September work has been downright scary with a 6.28 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP over five starts (he is 1-3). Now comes word that he may not even be on the Rockies playoff roster because of his struggles and the return to health of Aaron Cook. Pretty tough when you win 15 games and don’t get to start a playoff game, let alone suffer the potential indignity of not even being on the active roster. Marquis, by the way, bas won at least 11 games in each of the last six seasons. You know how many hurlers have done that? It’s a pretty small list: Johan Santana, John Lackey, Javier Vazquez, CC Sabathia, Derek Lowe and Marquis. He may be the worst pitcher on the list, but he is the quintessential innings eater who more often than not gives his team a chance to win.
Pedro Martinez hopes to return from his injured neck on Wednesday. I wonder if manager Charlie Manuel will again let Pedro throw 130 pitches, as he did in the start that really precipitated the injury, or if he will prepare Martinez for the possibility of starting a playoff game that lasts 12 innings by letting him throw 150 pitches.
The Tigers now say that they probably won’t start Rick Porcello again this week in order to save the youngsters arm. After all, he has thrown all of 165 innigns this season, the most in the history of the universe for a young pitcher. The Tigers have a one game lead over the Twins as I write this. You think any Tigers’ fans will care about how old Porcello is, or how many pitches he has thrown this season if they miss out on the playoffs because they decided to rest Porcello, specially since Porcello has a 5-2 record with a 3.19 ERA since the start of August? Seriously, hasn’t this babying of pitchers gone far enough? If a guy can’t go out there an pitch every fifth day, then why bother having him on your roster? It’s obviously completely unfair to compare any modern hurler to Cy Young, but take a gander at his record – he was held to only 147.2 innings as a rookie before the Spiders let him go for 423.2 innings in his second season. In fact, that began a stretch of 4-straight 400-innings seasons and 15-straight years of at least 300-innings. When men were men I guess…
Matt Wieters has all of a sudden gotten good. Not really of course, he has always been good, but his performance has finally started to come around, and in fact he has been tearing it up in September hitting .360 with a .952 OPS in 23 games in the final month of the year. Going back a bit further, Wieters is hitting .308 over his last 59 games to raise his overall mark to .292 in 90 games. That breakout that was predicted, it’s already started. Beware the hype machine heading into 2010, but Wieters clearly looks like a potential top-10 option behind the dish next season.
And lastly —-
Did you see this news report? Junior Seau, you know, the potential HOF linebacker, was at a rodeo this weekend. He entered the ring and was then run over by the bull. He apparently escaped unharmed, but if he can take on a bull why couldn’t he still have enough left to stop a 235 lbs running back?
By Ray Flowers
Want to learn how to ingratiate yourself to your fan base? If you do, then I suggest you follow the lead of the Cubs’ Milton Bradley who, amazingly, offered this little diddy to the press. “All I’m saying is I just pray the game is nine innings, so I can be out there the least amount of time as possible and go home,” he said. Apparently, he isn’t feeling the love from the Cubs faithful. “I’m talking about when I go to eat at a restaurant, I have to listen to the waiters bad-mouthing me at another table, sitting in a restaurant…” Well Milton, try keeping your mouth shut and hit better than .255 while you are making $10 million a year and people might cut you a break. Memo to Cubs’ fans – don’t boo Bradley, boo your idiotic front office that gave him $30 million.
Carlos Gonzalez returned from his losing battle with a steak knife to play on Thursday. Unfortunately he then went out and suffered a bruised thumb in the game and is now being called day-to-day like the rest of us. Honestly, I injured my left pinkie while typing this piece so I’m hour-to-hour.
Adam Jones continues to be sidelined with a back injury. He is supposed to return by the weekend, though with his recent struggles (.222 in his last 21 games) the team should give him all the time he needs to make sure he is healthy.
Jake Peavy will make another minor league start for Triple-A Charlotte on Saturday. If his ankle, and elbow, are fine after that appearance, he will likely be activated with his next start being for the Pale Sox next week.
Mike Sheets offered his take on his top-10 catchers for 2010 in his most recent posting. I can’t disagree with his top-3, those guys are money, but his list got me to thinking about just how thin the catchers’ pool has gotten of late. Just look at the names that Sheets listed 4-10.
Mike Napoli – A 30 percent strikeout rate is awful, limiting his AVG upside (his current .289 mark is a mirage).
Jorge Posada – Thirty-eight years old, he is hitting .277 with 17 homers but he has been limited to just 478 ABs the past two years.
Ryan Doumit – Hitting .225 this season, Doumit does have 23 homer sand 95 RBI his last 613 ABs while his average in that time is .290. If he could just stay healthy.
Bengie Molina – Figures to stay in SF and hold off Buster Posey for at least one more year and he has hit at least 15 homers with 57 RBI in each of the past five seasons.
Geovany Soto – Continues to worsen, if that is possible. After hitting .278 in May that number has slide each of the past three months: .257, .222 and .150.
Russell Martin – Is hitting just .257 with four home runs after hitting at least .280 with 10 in each of his first three seasons.
Matt Wieters – Jesus, I mean Wieters, is hitting .263 with a .677 OPS in his first 224 ABs. The upside is undeniable, but at the same time Wieters has been out-produced this season by Omir Santos who has hit .264-6-32 with a .693 OPS in 235 ABs. Ruminate on that for a while.
If you miss out on the top-3 you might as well wait a long while before taking the plunge as there will likely be a whole lot of mediocrity out there.
Michael Vick returns to NFL action later tonight. Count me as someone who could care less. I don’t wish people ill, but at the same time I wouldn’t be at all disappointed if Vick were to struggle monumentally for the rest of his career.
By Ray Flowers
Today is one of those days. It’s 95 degrees outside, I’ve been talking football while writing about the NHL and the NBA all day, and now it’s time to get back to my bread and butter – major league baseball. In what follows you can peruse a few of my thoughts on this fine Tuesday.
Over his last seven starts Edwin Jackson has thrown an average of 114 pitches an appearance and that includes two outing in his last three times on the hill when he only made it through four innings. That’s right, over his last three starts Jackson has averaged 112 pitches a game despite only throwing an average of 5.1 innings per start. His ERA has gone up from 2.49 to 2.79 in that stretch of seven games and though has lost only one outing, but I’m a bit worried about those pitch counts given that he is on pace to blow past his previous career-high of 183.1 innings from last season (he currently has 151.2 IP under his belt).
I gave my take on the Alex Rios to Blue Jays deal in the Daily Dose from Tuesday. I’m glad the team has sent Rios out of town. Now if they could also find a taker for Vernon Wells then maybe they would have enough money to sign impending free agents Marco Scutaro and Rod Barajas. Oh, and I love when GM J.P. Ricciardi said he is not under pressure from management to move money because a team without Rios and Wells would certainly be much better than one with Scutaro and Barajas. What a joke.
The Giants will activate Nate Schierholtz from the DL tonight and with his return the team might have to curtail the playing time of 12 year vet Randy Winn. “Whether I’m in there or not, I want to win and that’s it.” Winn said as he would love to end his stretch of playoff-less baseball (he has never appeared in the “second season” in his career). Normally the Giants would just continue to run Winn out there since he is the consummate professional, but honestly, with Eugenio Velez being so hot, yes Eugenio Velez, there isn’t likely to be a spot in the daily lineup for Winn with Nate S. back in the mix. Just how hot has Velez been? Since begin recalled from the minors he is hitting .417 with 11 RBI and 13 runs in just 14 games. Moreover, dating back to August of last year Velez is batting .330 over 221 at-bats, and don’t even lie to me and say you were aware of that fact.
I’ve watched Jonathan Sanchez very closely for a few years, and I’m just not one bit convinced that he will ever figure “it” out. The stuff if top flight but he key simply cannot repeat his mechanics often enough to throw strikes. They Giants need him today, especially because of the injury to Randy Johnson, but I wouldn’t be at all unhappy if the Giants moved Sanchez this offseason if they could get a bat. I’m already bald and don’t have much hair to pull out when Sanchez is throwing ball after ball.
I thought that Matt Wieters was going to reinvent the game of baseball in his image? Well the rook is hitting .263 with three home runs an a .683 OPS in his 179 at-bat season so far. Huh, that’s roughly the production the Orioles were receiving from, well what do you know, deposed starter and current Ray Greg Zaun who is hitting .242 with four home runs and a .719 OPS in 178 ABs.
Jordan Zimmerman will almost certainly undergo TJ surgery on his elbow. It’s amazing how many guys need to undergo the procedure these days. Think of it this way – if this was 1960 all of these guys who simply be out of baseball either because (a) their arm was so sore that they couldn’t pitch or (b) they would be getting lit up since their pitches would have no oomph to them. Still, I wonder why so many guys in the old days could throw 300+ innings year after year without an issue and nowadays if a guy throws 200-innings in a season a parade is held.
By Ray Flowers
I have a weekly mailbag colum in which I answer a bunch of emails each week, but today I thought I would address two emails that came my way because I think the analysis of the two questions is pertinent.
At the beginning of the year I was loving Bobby Abreu but he has been struggling lately. Which Abreu should I expect to see for the rest of the year?
– Ryan, Ukiah
A good one. Here are the facts.
(1) Abreu is hitting .303 overall but just .204 over his last 54 at-bats. Has he struggled here of late? Absolutely. But overall his 303 mark is nearly identical to his career .300 mark. In addition, his BABIP of .344 is right along his career lines as he owns a .352 mark in that category. Nothing to worry about here.
(2) Abreu has gone 173 plate appearances without a home run, a shocking run of ineffectiveness for a player who has hit at least 15 home runs in each of the last 11 years. His power has declined the past few years, but this level of failure makes no sense at all. It should, let me repeat should, even out moving forward. However, it is concerning that his FB-rate has dipped to 29.5% this season which would be a three year low, but still, it’s not that far off his 31.2% career mark. The real change in his work at the dish is the fact that his GB-rate is up to 52%, a career-high, while his LD-rate of 19% is an eight year low, far below his 23% career level.
(3) Despite the lack of pop, Abreu is walking at the same rate as always (15.2 percent BB-rate), while his K-rate has plummeted to 11.7%, an almost 50% reduction in his career rate (21.4%).
So what do we have? We have a man who has been putting the bat on ball more frequently than ever before, and one who is producing hits at the same rate as he always has despite a recent slump. Add in the fact that he is 15-for-15 in steals and you have to be positive about Abreu’s outlook moving forward. It’s not his fault that he has only 18 runs scored in 41 games with a .410 OBP, and with Vlad Guerrero now back in the lineup that rate could change shortly. Sooner or later the home runs will come, and when they do Abreu’s production will likely turn back to “normal.”
Is it worth dropping the slumping Bengie Molina to pick up Wieters for the anticipated June call-up?
– Tyler, Toronto
Molina has eight home runs with 30 RBI in 43 games for the Giants, but he has been awful of late hitting just .200 over his last 50 at-bats. The Giants depend on his bat so much in their run-deprived offense that one has to figure that he will play pretty much every day even when he struggles. Speaking of those issues at the dish, Molina’s approach was bound to catch up to him sooner or later. Molina has walked all of two times in 171 plate appearances this season leading to a miniscule 1.2% BB-rate. Combine that career worst rate with a 8-year high in his K-rate (12.7%), and it’s clear that a change in his approach are needed. Still, Molina has hit at least 15 home runs in each of the past four seasons, no other catcher has done that, and his total of 176 RBI the past two years are the second most amongst all backstops (Brian McCann had 179). The bottom line is that Bengie is a run producer.
As for Wieters, we are still awaiting his long anticipated debut – though late news is that he will likely make his first appearance on Friday. Wieters has hit .285 with five home runs and 26 RBI in 38 games at Triple-A this season, and he has knocked in nine runs the past 10 games during which time he is hitting .286. He has a Hall of Fame bat and his defense is solid, but the bottom line with Wieters is that he has struggled with some ineffectiveness and injury this season, and though his potential is off the charts, he doesn’t have a single at-bat in the majors to fall back on. Given those facts, combined with the top flight production that Molina has offered the past couple of seasons, I would recommend holding on to Molina for now if all you can do is a 1-for-1 swap. The upside with Wieters is massive, but at the same time sometimes slow and steady wins the race.
By Ray Flowers
The FSWA winner of the Best Baseball Series of 2011, BaseballGuys.com is the only source you will need for your fantasy baseball knowledge. OK, you might need other sources, but BaseballGuys.com should be on your daily list of must reads for the insights an analysis it provides on the world of baseball.
The co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87: M-F at 5-8 PM EDT), Ray has spent years squirreled away studying the inner workings of the fantasy game to the detriment of his personal life. Specializing in baseball, football and hockey, some consider him an expert in all three. Ray's work can also be found as feature writer for: Fantasy Alarm, Rotoinfo, Rotowire and Sports Illustrated.
You can contact Ray through e-mail at fantasyfandom@yahoo(dot)com or on Twitter.
