Player Profile: Max Scherzer

Max Scherzer is a flame thrower for the Tigers who has had a difficult time early in his career flashing start to start consistency. That somewhat uneven effort has caused many to not look closely enough at his dynamic right wing. In what follows I’ll hope to be able to make the point that given his draft day cost that he is a hurler you should be targeting for inclusion on your fantasy squad (he’s barely being taken inside the top-20 at the starting pitching position).

REVIEW: 2008-09

Scherzer started out his big league career with the D’backs and over two seasons he was 9-15 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. He was a huge K arm though with an average of 9.54 punchouts per nine innings leading to a solid 2.86 K/BB ratio.

REVIEW: 2010

Max posted a career best set of ratios in 2010 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Oddly, his strikeout ratio dipped to 8.46 per nine though his walk rate continued to dwindle (3.22 per nine after seasons of 3.38 and 3.33).

REVIEW: 2011-12

This is when things started to take off for Scherzer. He won 31 games, more about that below, and he struck out an average of 9.53 batters per nine innings while dropping his walk rate to 2.73 per nine allowing his K/BB ratio to improve to an impressive level of 3.49 (that mark is 16th in baseball among hurlers who tossed 325 innings.).

THE 2012 RUN

In April last year Scherzer went 1-3 with a 7.77 ERA and 2.05 WHIP as batters hit an unconscionable .356 off him. Obviously the regression monster showed his face the rest of the season, and over the final five months of the year he was very, very good. Not just that, he was actually excellent.

Over his final 27 starts of 2012 Scherzer went 15-4, posted a 3.14 ERA, had a 1.16 WHIP, a 11.2 K/9 mark an a 4.34 K/BB ratio. Let’s compare that to the work of Justin Verlander last season.

Verlander: 17-8 (.680 WIN%), 9.0 K/9, 3.98 K/BB, 2.64 ERA, 1.06 WHIP
Scherzer: 15-4 (.789 Win%), 11.2 K/9, 4.34 K/BB, 3.14 ERA, 1.16 WHIP

Amazing how similar the two were in overall value if you remove April from Scherzer’s line, isn’t it?

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THE STRIKEOUT

Scherzer isn’t just a dominating K arm, he’s a historically impressive one. Last season Scherzer struck out 231 batters in 187.2 innings. Since he failed to throw even 190 innings the K total hasn’t been viewed by many in the manner it should be cause he didn’t push 250 Ks. So here’s some context to help out.

(1) Only one man in baseball had more punchouts, and that was his teammate Justin Verlander who had 239 in 238.1 innings, or, 50.2 more innings pitched than Mad Max (I told myself I wasn’t going to use that term in this piece but I just couldn’t help myself). Fifty more innings than Scherzer folks. Think about that for a brief moment before moving on to #2.

(2) Scherzer’s K/9 mark was 11.08, the best in baseball. No one else even struck out 10.50 per nine (Yu Darvish was second at 10.40).

(3) Scherzer’s K/9 mark of 11.08 was historically impressive. Among all pitchers who have ever thrown 162 innings in a season, the number of innings needed to qualify for the ERA title, that 11.08 number has only been bettered 18 times – ever (the single season record is 13.41 by Randy Johnson in 2001 when he struck out 372 batters in 249.2 innings).

(4) Scherzer has thrown 804.2 innings in his career and has posted a 9.27 strikeout per nine mark. Among pitchers who have thrown 800 innings in their career that K/9 mark sits at 11th all-time. Eleventh.

The fact is that Scherzer is as dominating a strikeout arm as you are going to find among starting pitchers.

WINS

You all know my thoughts on wins, I don’t pay them much mind since so much goes into them beyond what the pitcher can control, but facts are facts, and the last two years Scherzer has been a big winner. The last two years Scherzer has won 31 games. That total of 31 wins is the 9th best mark in baseball (tied with James Shields, Zack Greinke and Cole Hamels). Max is also one of just 10 hurlers who have won 15 games in each of the past two years.

OUTLOOK

Scherzer is as dominating an arm as there in baseball among starting hurlers. Yes there are some concerns about his ability to bring it start after start, but as I noted above he was pretty much nails after a rough April last year. If he can lock things in for six months, and stay healthy (the team is bringing him along slowly this spring), there’s a very real chance that he could post numbers that can rival those of his more celebrated rotation mate at a greatly reduced cost. Without question the risk is higher with Scherzer than Verlander, but given the draft day cost Scherzer profiles as the arm I would rather target in 2013.

• Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

2013 FSTA LEAGUE

In 2011 I was the FSTA Champion even though I selected Carl Crawford in the first round (he appeared in just 130 games hitting .255 with 65 runs and 18 steals in his worst season of more than 100 games played.). In 2012 I had another first round selection fail to live up to expectations as Evan Longoria had an injury filled campaign. This time I finished in 11th out of 13 teams. Embarrassing. I’m back for blood in 2013. Here’s how the just completed draft went down in Las Vegas (I love vodka and Red Bull by the way… just thought I would share that).

13 teams, Mixed League, 5×5
14 hitters: C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UT
Nine pitchers (any combination of SPs and Rps)
Six bench spots

Here’s the team I selected out of the #6 hole (you can see the results of the entire draft at the RT Sports Link). The number in parenthesis is the round the player was drafted.

C: Joe Mauer (5), Russell Martin (21)
1B: Adam LaRoche (12)
2B: Howie Kendrick (10)
3B: Martin Prado (6)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (2)
MI/CI: Asdrubal Cabrera (7), Kevin Youkilis (14)
OF: Andrew McCutchen (1), B.J. Upton (3), Jay Bruce (4), Coco Crisp (18), Denard Span (19)
UT: Mark Reynolds (20)

SP: James Shields (8), Max Scherzer (9), Tim Lincecum (11), Tim Hudson (16), Wandy Rodriguez (22), Shaun Marcum (23), Edinson Volquez (25), Erasmo Ramirez (28)
RP: J.J. Putz (13), Joel Hanrahan (15), Jason Grilli (17), Sean Marshall (29)

BENCH: Chris Young (24), Jemile Weeks (26), Justin Maxwell (27)

So how did this team turn out? Let me explain how things evolved.

I almost took Joey Votto in round one, but instead went for the more well-rounded game of McCutchen.

In the second I nearly took Jose Reyes. Ultimately I went for HanRam who has more power and qualifies at two spots (SS, 3B). I worry a bit about Reyes playing on Astro Turf, the fact that he is been hurt a fair amount, and that he doesn’t steal bases like he once did.

Round three I grabbed B.J. Upton – who now gets to play with his brother Justin Upton in Atlanta. After three rounds I felt like I had three guys who could all go 20/20. I like that.

In Round four I took the power bat of Bruce, who in my eyes isn’t much different than Ginacarlo Stanton who was taken in the first round. Bruce was another strong pick, but his selection caused a problem. Ramirez/Upton/Bruce could get 1,500+ at-bats with a batting average of .260. That’s not a strong start in that category. So, in order to address that situation my next two picks were guys who should be strong batting average plays – Mauer and Prado. I don’t normally take a catcher this early, but Mauer is pretty much a lock for a .300 average. I just hope he plays 140 games. Prado, who was just dealt to Arizona (which could help his offensive game out a wee bit), is another guy with a batting average floor of about .285. He makes contact, steals a few bags, and should score a ton of runs hitting near the top of the D’backs batting order. He also qualifies at third base and the outfield as well which doesn’t hurt.

Noticing that the middle infield was getting really thin, I took Cabrera for my MI spot. I’d be happy with a slight improvement on last year’s numbers (.270-16-68-70-9). Even a repeat would be alright. Jemile Weeks is a forgotten man but just 12 months ago people thought we could be looking at a .280 hitting, 30 steal guy at second base.

Youkilis and Reynolds are my corner infield options. Neither is great, but I should be able to cobble together something solid there. LaRoche at first base is boring but he did hit 33 homers with 100 RBIs last year. I’d rather have him in the 12th round than Ryan Howard in the 5th.

My outfield has an impressive top-3 (McCutchen, Upton, Bruce). Crisp has a great fro, and he’s stolen at least 32 bases each of the last three years. Span has a .285, 95 run season in him in Washington. I’m telling ya. For support I rostered Young and Maxwell, both of whom have huge holes in their games. Still, both have the talent to make a run at a 20/20 season. I only need one to hit.

I did my normal waiting thing on starters, and I like how it turned out. Shields and Scherzer can win 30 games with 400 plus Ks. You don’t think so? Lincecum could win 15 games and strike out 200 too, even if you don’t think he can. As I noted at the draft table, I think Lincecum in the 11th has every chance of matching Yovani Gallardo who was taken in the 9th. Hudson/Wandy/Marcum might all be the same hurler, but as 4-6 starters I like a trio that is going to be solid in the ratio categories (3.50 ERA, 1.25ish WHIP). Volquez has a huge arm (see his Player Profile). No one seems to think much of my Erasmo pick. Hey, the guy pitches for the Mariners, had a 1.00 WHIP an a 4.00 K/BB ratio over 59 innings last season. I’ll take a shot on that.

In the bullpen – huge arms abound. Putz and Hanrahan, if healthy, should give me 70 saves. Those that think Putz is at the end of his rope aren’t looking at the numbers (or the contract extension he was given by the Diamondbacks). Grilli has never been a closer, but he struck out 13.8 batters per nine innings last season and had a 4.09 K/BB ratio. I like that and so should you. Marshall is the best left handed setup man in the NL. If Aroldis Chapman starts as planned, guess who is the #2 option in Cincy for 9th inning work? It’s Marshall who would only be behind Jonathan Broxton, you know the guy who struck out 6.98 batters per nine innings last season, only four batters below his career mark of 10.96. Broxton is also a year removed from a 6.39 BB/9 mark. Sure it was 12.2 innings, but that should make you nervous if you plan on counting on Mr. Broxton.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Positional Review – Starting Pitchers: Hits

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

OUTFIELDERS

Things will work a little differently for the pitchers. Instead of a review of the top-10 I’ll detail a series of “Hits” and “Misses” for starters and relievers

HITS

Brandon Morrow (#21): He was exactly the pitcher I expected him to be this year with impressive ratios (2.96 ERA, 1.11 WHIP), an a solid K-rate (7.80, though that was about two batters below what I also expected, so it wasn’t a 100 percent hit). The only issue was lack of health as he was able to make only 21 starts.

Gio Gonzalez (#27): Led the majors in wins (21), had his first sub three ERA (2.89), a career best WHIP (1.13) and his first 200 K season (207). Was the second best left hander in the NL behind Clayton Kershaw and seems like a lock to end the year as a top-5 performer in NL Cy Young voting.

Max Scherzer (#28): A frustrating own at times due to his up and down performance from start to start, Scherzer ended up having one hell of a season. Not only did he win 16 games but he also posted a solid 3.74 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. However, his claim to fame was the punchout. Scherzer had the second most strikeouts in baseball with 231 (eight behind teammate Justin Verlander), and his K/9 mark of 11.08 was the 19th best single season mark in the history of the game (min. 162 IP). Only Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Kerry Wood, Nolan Ryan, Dwight Gooden, Hideo Nomo and Curt Schilling ever bettered the K/9 mark.

James McDonald (#66): He always had the arm but never the consistency. While you can still make that argument after his epic second half collapse (7.52 ERA, 1.79 WHIP over his last 13 outings), he was so good in the first half (9-3, 2.37 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 100 Ks in 110 IP), and was so cheap on draft day (he likely wasn’t drafted until the 25th round or later in mixed leagues), that his overall effort was still solid (12 wins, 1.26 WHIP, 151 Ks in 171 IP).

Jonathon Niese (#62): Niese won a career best 11 games, had a career best 3.40 ERA, an after 3-years with a WHIP in the 1.40′s he dropped that number down to 1.17. Two years running now he has also posted a K/BB ratio of better than 3:1. He’s not likely to improve upon his 2012 numbers, but he doesn’t need to in order to be a solid depth arm in mixed leagues.

Chris Capuano (#72): Some will see the three victories and 4.76 ERA over his last 15 starts. That is being shortsighted. What should be seen is his overall effort, his best since 2005. Finishing just five outs short of his first 200-inning season since 2006, Capuano won 12 games with a 3.72 ERA and 1.22 WHIP (both ratios are career bests). Like Niese, he’s now posted a K/BB ratio of 3:1 in each of the last two years.

Chris Sale (#73): Sale tossed 33.2 innings in 2010, 71 in 2011, and then a whopping 192 in ’12. There were issues most of the year with his arm – he was moved to the bullpen at one point and was given extra rest between starts when the White Sox could – but in the end the effort was a truly dominating one for the young lefty as Sale won 17 games, posted 192 Ks in 192 innings, and had two sparkling ratio numbers (3.05 ERA, 1.14 WHIP). The massive IP increase is a concern, but this is one dynamic skill set.

Bronson Arroyo (#89): For the 8th straight year Arroyo threw at least 199 innings, and for the 4th time in five seasons he won at least 12 games. He also posted a 3.74 ERA, his best mark in six years, while his WHIP of 1.21 was just the second time that mark has been under 1.25 since 2007. He doesn’t strike anyone out, his 5.75 K/9 mark is bad, but he’s a solid innings eater who won’t kill your ratios in mixed leagues.

Ivan Nova (#103): From my Player Profile on Nova before the year started. “… pitchers can have a ton of extended success with a skill set like this, but that doesn’t mean they should be guys you target in the fantasy game… Keep expectations in check with Nova, and that means realizing Nova is a 4/5 starter in mixed leagues and nothing more.” The good – Nova won 12 games and had 153 Ks displaying a yet unforeseen ability to strike batters out (his K/9 mark hadn’t hit 5.60 in his first two seasons but somehow rose to 8.08 in 2012). The bad? He allowed a ton of homers (1.48 per nine), saw his ERA skyrocket (5.02), and that WHIP was a career worst as well (1.47). He was exactly what I thought he would be, despite so many other fantasy folks pushing him as a better option than I thought he would be.

Jeff Samardzija (#108): One of the keys to my NL LABR team’s success (I purchased him for a mere dollar at auction), JS had a sensational first season as a starter for the Cubs. For more on Samardzija see my September 13th Mailbag column.

Tom Milone (#112): A strong end game grab who came into the year with just 26 innings of big league experience. He struck out a few more batters than expected (a 6.49 K/9) and he simply didn’t beat himself (1.71 walks per nine) leading to an impressive 3.81 K/BB ratio. The rookie lefty won 13 games, had a 3.74 ERA an a 1.28 WHIP for the cost of peanuts on draft day.

By Ray Flowers

Review: SiriusXM Hosts League Draft

The review of my season in the abyss continues as I’ll take a look today at the Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio Hosts’ League club that I put together.

Kurt Suzuki and John Buck were total failures. In the piece I just linked to above I mentioned how close I was to getting Carlos Ruiz. Oh well.

Kevin Youkilis (.235-19-60-72) had a lost season wearing White and Red Sox.

Dustin Pedroia had a solid season with 15 homers, 20 steals and 81 runs scored, but injuries limited him to his worst season of 140 games played.

Derek Jeter was on a whole lot of my teams this year. Turns out he was a hell of a lot better than anyone, well almost anyone, thought he would be (.316-15-59-99-9).

Billy Butler was a superstar posting the best numbers of his career (.313-29-107-72). I don’t think he can get much better – at least in the homer column.

My outfield was a mixed bag. CarGo (.303-22-85-89-20) was once again star. Carl Crawford was once again a massive disappointment in his worst season (31 flipping games). Shane Victorino stole a career best 39 bags, but he also hit a career worst .255, produced 55 RBIs (his lowest total in five years), and scored just 72 times, his fewest times crossing the plate since 2006. Brett Gardner was a total flop appearing in just 16 games because of about 16 setbacks with his elbow. After averaging 48 steals the past two years and getting just two this year, it’s not surprising to see my team come in with seven out of a possible 12 points in the steals category.

Mark Reynolds, a top-5 third baseman in homers, RBIs and runs from 2009-11, had his worst season ever with only a massive finishing kick giving him non-puking numbers (.221-23-69-65). I still spit up a little in my mouth.

James Shields joined Justin Verlander as the only two pitchers in baseball with at least 15 victories and 220 Ks each of the past two years.

Ricky Romero was the worst pitcher ever. Well, not quite, but you know what I mean. If you don’t, here is some context. Not only did he have a 1.67 WHIP over 181 innings, he posted the 10th worst ERA of the 21st century for a hurler who tossed 180 innings (his mark was 5.77, the worst the 6.65 mark of Jose Lima in 2000).

Brandon Morrow was the ace I predicted he would be with a 2.96 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Too bad he made only 21 starts because of injury.

Max Scherzer alternated brilliance and putrid outings frustrating his owners. In the end though no one was complaining about 16 victories, 231 Ks, a 3.74 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.

Chad Billingsley, Erik Bedard, Ricky Nolasco rounded out the rotation. Billingsley was having a nice bounce back season before an elbow injury shut him down at 149.2 innings after 4-straight years over 185 innings. Bedard was just awful after a solid start (7-14, 5.01 ERA, 1.47 WHIP). Amazingly he was healthy but horrible. Nolasco teased again, and in the end the numbers were terrible (12-13, 4.48 ERA, 1.37 WHIP).

Sergio Santos, Kenley Jansen, Brett Myers, Matt Capps and Aroldis Chapman were my bullpen, and yes I led the league in saves with 142, a pretty kick ass number for a 12 team league. Don’t overlook the fact that Santos had only two saves on the year either. If he too was healthy I could have parlayed one of these arms into more help for my starting staff.

CONGRATS: Drew Dinkmyer of Fantistics.

FINAL RESULT: 8/12. Not good. However, one more run, two more wins and 14 more Ks would have landed me in a tie for 6th place. Amazing how close it always is after such a long season.

By Ray Flowers

Did You Know?

The MLB playoffs are just about ready to get underway, so baseball is on the cusp of starting its “second season.” Before we get there, let’s take a look back at the just completed regular season. I’ve found a few numbers there that are certainly worth taking note of.

How many players in baseball have gone 40-100 the past two years? The answer is one. He’s also the only player who has, obviously, gone 40-100-100. He’s also the only option in the game, redundancy anyone?, who has gone 40-100-100-10 the past two years. The answer is Curtis Granderson. Sure his average dropped to .232, and his OBP fell to .319, and those numbers aren’t good in any world, but he’s as impressive a counting number performer as there has been in baseball the past two years. Granderson is a faster version of Adam Dunn, you’ll just have to learn how to work around his so-so batting average (Granderson has hit .247 the past four years, so you shouldn’t have been shocked to see his .262 batting average from last season fall).

How many pitchers in the AL won 15 games while striking out 200 batters? You’ve got your standard in Justin Verlander (17, 239), and if you thought of Verlander you most likely also also hit on Max Scherzer (16, 231) who also led baseball with a K/9 mark of 11.08 (that mark allowed Scherzer to post the 19th best single season mark in the history of baseball for a pitcher who tossed at least 162 innings). Given that he is starting the AL Wild Card today you probably also thought of Yu Darvish (16, 221) who had a very successful first season in the States even if he walked too many batters (89 in 191.1 innings). Hopefully you also remember the guy who appears to have a strong shot to win the AL Cy Young Award, the man who tied Jered Weaver for the league lead in wins (20), and that is David Price. The Rays’ lefty won 20 games, struck out 205, posted a 2.56 ERA and had a 1.10 WHIP. So here’s the question. Who is the lone pitcher in the AL to win 15 games and strike out 200 batters who I didn’t mention? The answer can be found below.

Brandon Moss had an amazing run for the A’s to close the year that included a .690 SLG over his last 26 games. When the season was over he had accrued only 265 at-bats, but boy did he use them to great effect. Moss was a tremendous weapon for the A’s as he hit .291 on the year with a .358 OBP and .596 SLG. Moss also drove in 52 runners while scoring 48 times as he had a great season for a guy who struck out nearly a third of the time. The most amazing part of his effort? Let’s look to the home run. Moss hit 21 of them in just 296 plate appearances. No player has ever hit more than 21 homers in under 300 palte appearances. The others who have hit that mark are Art Shamsky (1966), Johnny Blanchard (1961), Kevin Maas (1990) and David Ross (2006). How about that?

The most dangerous “pull” hitter in baseball in 2012 was Giancarlo Stanton, and when you read the numbers I’m about to list your eyeballs might fall out of your head. Stanton hit .507 in the 140 at-bats in which he pulled the ball. That’s 71 hits in 140 at-bats folks. His SLG mark was 1.164. His slugging was 1.164. His OPS? Get out the video game. That number was 1.671. Stanton also hit 24 homers in at-bats when he “pulled” the ball. That number didn’t lead baseball though. The leader in “pull” home runs was none other than Mr. Curtis Granderson who had 37 homers in 201 at-bats.

ANSWER: The fifth pitcher in the Junior Circuit to pull off the 15-200 trick in 2012 is a teammate of one of the other four. Still not able to narrow it down? A hint. He struck out 15 batters in his final start of the season. That man is none other than James Shields who won 15 games with 223 Ks. Shields also won 16 games with 225 Ks last season. Why not keep the good times rolling? How many hurlers in baseball have won 15 games with 220 Ks each of the past two years? The answer is two – Verlander and Shields.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: September27, 2012

All of pomp and circumstance around Mike Trout, who is hitting .259 in September and .274 over his last 51 games by the way, has obscured the great season that Bryce Harper has had. Harper hit his 20th homer to become just the second teenager in the history of the game to reach that mark (Tony Conigliaro pulled off the trick with 24 bombs in 1964). Add in his 17 steals, and the guy has damn near gone 20/20… as a teenager. Harper has also scored 93 times on the year, and he’s performed very well in September with a .297/.366/.482 slash line while scoring 22 times in 24 games. All told it’s been a pretty remarkable season.

Chris Nelson of the Rockies has been killing it. In September he is hitting .359 with 16 RBIs and 17 run scored, and going a bit further back he’s hit .346 over his last 50 games. Given that he qualifies at second and third base, he’s been a hell of a stop gap option in virtually every league for two months now.

Max Scherzer has been scratched from his start Friday because of a deltoid strain in his shoulder. Two starts ago he lasted just two innings against the A’s, and the last time he took the hill he wasn’t very impressive either as he allowed three runs in five innings. With his velocity down the team is trying to balance his long-term health with his importance to the club as they try to hold off the White Sox for the AL Central crown (they have a one game lead). By the way, Scherzer had been dynamite in the second half going 8-2 with a 2.81 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 107 Ks in just 86.1 innings. He’s got an elite arm, and the Tigers don’t want to take the chance on him doing something long-term to his wing.

And now, on to a question…

With Michael Bourn’s terrible finish and unknown FA destination, can you see keeping Chris Sale or R.A. Dickey ahead of him? I can keep five players and currently plan on keeping Robinson Cano, Ryan Braun, Joey Votto and Curtis Granderson.
– @mdbaumer

Bourn has hit an anemic .222 over his last 66 games played after hitting the All-Star break with a mark of .311 (he’s also been out of the lineup of late with a thumb injury). Any owner of Bourn knows that, and I’m sure it has caused frustration. However, let’s keep things on the macro and not micro level. On the year Bourn has hit .274. Last season in 53 games with the Braves he hit .278. For his career he’s batted .272. It’s been uneven, but the truth is Bourn’s average is the same as always. His current .346 OBP is slightly better than his .338 career mark. His .391 SLG is slightly better than his career .365 mark. He’s also scored 93 times, just one less than last season an a mere four off his career best. He’s also hit nine homers, he hit a total of seven homers the last three years, and that has somewhat helped to ease the pain that his owners have felt for his drop in steals. After stealing at least 52 bags the past three years he has just 39 this season. Still, with one more theft he will reach the 40 total for the fifth straight season.

Bourn, and all speedsters, face an issue in the fantasy game. People don’t understand their value properly. People see inadequate homer and RBIs marks, and a middling batting average, and they fail to appreciate the value of the runs and steals in the fantasy game. I’ve written about steals and their value over an over, but let’s address it one more time. Here are the player rater rankings for Bourn according to three of the major sites in fantasy baseball.

CBS: 37th overall
ESPN: 39th overall
YAHOO: 52nd overall

Average that together and the three main sites say that Bourn’s effort this season makes him the 43rd most valuable player in fantasy baseball, an I completely agree with that assessment.

It’s fair to wonder if he will return to the 50+ steal club, I’ll give you that, but if he merely replicates the effort that he has put forth this season he will once again be an elite starting option in the outfield. I also have to say that a starting outfield of Braun, Granderson and Bourn… that would be as good a trio as anyone in any league ever has.

Dickey has had an amazing season, one that might earn him the Cy Young Award. He leads the NL in ERA (2.66), is one victory behind Gio Gonzalez for the NL lead in wins with 19, and two strikeouts behind Clayton Kershaw for the lead in strikeouts with 209. Since the start of the 2010 season he’s been a rather remarkable performer given his almost complete reliance on the knuckleball with a 2.93 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 92 outings. However, it’s pretty impossible to think that he will be able to repeat his effort of this season in 2013. Look no further than the three batter per nine inning increase he’s offered in 2012 in the strikeout department (8.55) over his mark in 2010-11. In his own way, Dickey has been as amazing this year as Trout has at the plate, and just like with Trout, it strains credulity a wee bit to think either will repeat their efforts.

Sale continues to power through the innings. After a spectacular start to the year – he was 10-2 with a 2.19 ERA and 0.95 WHIP – Sale has predictably slowed in the second half, but it’s not like he’s been bad at all (7-5, 3.66 ERA, 1.28 WHIP with 87 Ks in 86 IP). On the year he has a 8.83 K/9 mark, a 1.10 WHIP an a 1.41 GB/FB ratio. He’s been special in his first year as a full-time starter.

If I was going to keep a hurler, it would have to be Sale. He’s younger, has a bigger arm, an a brighter future. I can understand how most would feel more comfortable keeping one or two arms amongst the five keepers, but if it was me I’d likely limit that mark to one pitcher, keeping four hitters. That doesn’t mean I would have to keep a hurler though (there is so much uncertainty with arms – look no further than Tim Lincecum’s terrible year, Jake Peavy’s out of nowhere effort, or the injuries to Garza, Beachy, Luebke, Storen, Rivera, Wilson, Soria etc.). I would hold on to Bourn and take my chances at the draft table to build my pitching staff. However, if you want to play it safe and keep Sale, I don’t have a problem with that.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 at 7 PM EDT, Monday through Thursday, and Friday’s from 9-12 PM EDT. 

Daily Joust – Wk 17: Did We Learn Anything?

On Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late. Can you use this information to your benefit over at DailyJoust?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Ike Davis (+25, $104 K in DailyJoust Salary)
He’s hitting just .213. Ugh. Now the positive. He has 20 homers, the same total as Mark Teixeira. He’s driven in 60 runs, nine more than Paul Konerko. He’s hit .253 the last 49 games after hitting .170 in his first 48 games. Certain progress no doubt, but there are still two situations that you want to make sure Davis is firmly rooted to your bench. (1) He’s hit .179 with a .576 OPS against lefties this season. (2) He’s hit .151 with a .484 OPS at home. I’m not kidding. Davis has a .151 average at home, a .214 batting average and .270 SLG in 159 at-bats. Can’t get much worse than that and remain a big leaguer.

A.J. Griffin (+69, $344K)
The former college closer just knows how to pitch. Winner of each of his last three starts, each of the six times that Griffin has taken the hill this season he’s gotten exactly 18 outs while allowing no more than three runs in any outing. In fact, he’s sporting some elite ratios – including a 2.25 ERA and 0.97 WHIP – as he’s held batters to a .205 average while posting 29 Ks, against only eight walks, in 36 innings. It’s impossible to think he will keep up this pace, but he’s been a waiver-wire gem the past five weeks.

Justin Maxwell (+14, $70K)
For those of you in NL-only leagues Justin has been a nice, reserve round gamble, hasn’t he? Maxwell has socked 10 long balls with 31 RBIs and 29 runs scored in just 172 at-bats, some pretty impressive marks given that relatively small sample size. However, he’s also hitting .227 which, unfortunately, is .015 points better than his career average. You’re really pushing it if you’re using him in mixed leagues, but he’s a valuable commodity, despite the warts, in league specific setups.

Max Scherzer (+149, $437K)
The last five times he has taken the hill he has emerged victorious four times. In his last four starts he’s allowed a total of eight runs. He’s walked an unappealing eight batters in his last two trips to the hill, but he’s offset the wildness with his huge stuff that has led to a 10.99 K/9 mark, the best in the Junior Circuit (11.58 for Stephen Strasburg to lead the NL). The K/9 mark is a career best, as is his 3.39 K/BB ratio. He needs to do a better job keeping the ball in the yard as he’s given up more fly balls than ever before, an a greater percentage of those fly balls have landed in the seats than ever before.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Mike Aviles (-14, $55K)
On the year Aviles has been a borderline top-10 shortstop option as he’s hit .252 with 10 homers, 51 RBIs, 42 runs scored and 10 steals. Unfortunately for Aviles owners, it’s gotten ugly of late. Aviles is hitting .200 over his last 50 at-bats. He’s also hitting just .194 in July. He has just two homers in his last 48 games. He’s scored just 12 runs in his last 48 games. Yeah, it might be time to explore going with another option up the middle.

Mark Buehrle (-40, $370K)
The guy has been a rock this year with a 3.31 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over 20 starts. It’s not all sugar plumbs and roses though as he’s allowed six earned runs over his last two starts (just 10 IP) as he’s walked five while striking out five. We could play this game all day, he’s killing it, he’s mortal, but in the end he is what he is – and that is a pretty darn impressive big league hurler who never gets hurt an  almost always gives his team a chance to win, even if he isn’t an impressive big league arm.

Trevor Cahill (-47, $283K)
When will they learn? The loser in two of three starts and four of six, Cahill has been the past month what he often is – a below average big league pitcher. In five July starts he has gone 2-3 with a 4.45 WE, 1.48 WHIP and 21 Ks in 30.1 innings. If that excites you have at it with Cahill, but I personally don’t understand the love affair people have with him. Working on a career best K/9 rate, it’s just 6.50, the only think that Cahill does well, the only thing, is keeping the ball on the ground. Still, even with a career best 59 percent ground ball rate his current ratios (3.86 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) look exactly like his career numbers (3.90 ERA, 1.32 WHIP).

Mike Trout (-24, $128K)
A chink in the armor perhaps? Trout’s average has dipped to .350, the lowest it’s been in two weeks, and he’s stolen only one base in his last 13 games. What a loser. I’d still exercise caution when it comes to telling the future with Trout given that his line drive rate is huge and likely unsustainable (25.4 percent). Ditto his BABIP of .402. He’s having a magical season no doubt, but will he finish as strong as he started?

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

Ever wanted the chance to play in a High Stakes Daily Fantasy Baseball Contest vs one of the best Experts in the industry?

Well, here is your chance to play against me, Ray Flowers, Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Channel Radio Host, owner of BaseballGuys.com, and 2011 FSWA Award Winner.

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In a special contest with Daily Joust – Ray Flowers is putting it all on the line in a Heads Up Challenge.  This contest is two-fold.

Enter the $5 20 man 50/50 Friday night  ENTER HERE.
Finish in the top 10 of the contest and win $9

Finish in 1st place and move on to play Ray the following Friday for $50 in COLD HARD CASH!!  Plus the bragging rights of beating Ray!!!

So pass on that $5 “Footlong” Friday night and jump into this contest on DailyJoust, you can buy plenty of sandwiches later with your winnings!

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Michael Cuddyer vs. Cliff Lee: The two have faced each other 33 times with Cuddyer hitting .303 with three homers and eight RBIs. Marco Scutaro has also hit .321 in 28 at-bats against Lee.

Johnny Damon vs. Ricky Romero: If there was ever a lock to get a hit, or two, it’s Damon in this matchup (over at Fleaflicker Damon is barely owned). The duo has faced off 29 times and here’s the damage inflicted by Damon – a .522 avearge, four homers, eight RBIs a .633 OBP an a 1.807 OPS. Wowzah’s.

Jhonny Peralta vs. Jason Hammel: In 12 at-bats Peralta is hitting .417 with a homer and seven RBIs. Peralta also hit the break with four hits in his last two games while Hammel has a 6.20 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in six career games against the Tigers.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Tim Hudson vs. Mets: The Mets have 149 at-bats against Hudson, those currently on the roster that is, and they have gone deep just two times while hitting .235 with a .637 OPS. Seems like Hudson has a pretty good shot at holding the Metropolitans down.

Clayton Kershaw vs. Padres: Any time you see Kershaw on the hill you should be pumped. When that matchup has him taking on the Padres, you should be super pumped. When you notice that current Padres are hitting .213 with a .542 OPS, and not a single homer in 141 at-bats, it’s time to start doing cartwheels (though be careful not to injure yourself cause I know I would if I attempted that move).

Adam Wainwright vs. Reds: In his career current Reds batter are hitting .187 with a .555 OPS over 107 at-bats against Waino. Take out that one rough outing against the Pirates and Wainwright has allowed a total of four earned runs in his last three starts with at least seven Ks each outing.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Billy Butler vs. Jake Peavy: Maybe those Royals fans that felt slighted All-Star weekend will have something to cheer for in this matchup as Butler has hit .389 with a 1.365 OPS against Peavy in 18 career at-bats.

Torii Hunter vs. Freddy Garcia: The two have faced each other in 48 official at-bats with Hunter emerging with 19 hits leading to a .396 batting average. Hunter has also gone deep four times while knocking in eight runs.

Casey Kotchman vs. Aaron Laffey: OK, I take my Damon prediction. This might be the most bonkers matchup ever. E-V-E-R. In 10 at-bats Kotchman has nine hits against Laffey. That is all.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Gio Gonzalez vs. Marlins: Current Marlins batters have 36 at-bats against Gio. They have struck out 12 times and produced… one hit (Emilio Bonifacio). Coming off a first half that saw him post a 2.92 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, not to mention 118 Ks in 101.2 innings, Gio is a must start in this matchup.

Kyle Lohse vs. Reds: In the last matchup between these two foes Lohse worked seven scoreless innings. In each of his last four starts he has worked at least seven innings while allowing a total of seven runs. That’s sounding like a pretty good matchup to me.

Max Scherzer vs. Orioles: On the year Scherzer has a 4.72 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Terrible numbers for a guy with his arm. I try to focus more on the 121 Ks in 97.1 innings and the nearly four to one K/BB marks. I also like the fact that he’s allowed a total of six runs over his last four starts as he’s finally finding his rhythm on the hill.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 7: Did We Learn Anything?

Monday’s I will be taking a look at the fantasy baseball game by breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances. This week it’s all about hot starting batters and pitchers – can they keep it up?
To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Johnny Cueto (+96, $379K in DailyJoust salary)
Through nine starts Cueto has a 1.97 ERA, 1.13 WHIP an a 5-1 record. He’s also allowed more than two earned runs just once this season. Moreover, six times this year he’s left the game having allowed one or zero earned runs. Injuries limited him last year to 24 starts, but if we add in his nine starts this year we get 33 starts covering 215.1 innings, a full season of work for an “ace-like” arm. In those 33 starts he has gone 14-6 with a 2.22 ERA an a 1.10 WHIP so maybe talk of him being an “ace” is warranted. Still, he’s struck out an average of 5.93 batters per nine innings, more than a batter below the big league average, and his 2.41 K/BB ratio is pretty average. The grounders have led to am immense level of success and there is no end in sight.

Felipe Paulino (+60, $426K)
Through three starts for the Royals Paulino has a 1.93 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 21 Ks in 18.2 innings. A long time power arm, Paulino has 344 Ks in 366.1 innings in his career. He’s struggled with two things in his career – health and consistency. Well he’s already been hurt this year, so let’s hope that is out of the way. If he can just throw strikes, currently he’s sporting a 2.41 walk per nine mark which is more than a batter below his career rate, then he’s bound to have a lot of success even though few have seemed to have taken note (check out his owned percentage over at Fleaflicker).

CC Sabathia (+85, $425K)
A rock, CC has 65 Ks in 64.1 innings, and in each of his nine start he has gone at least six innings. The results haven’t been spectacular, he has a 3.78 ERA, but he gives you innings, Ks, pitches for the Yankees (leading to a 5-2 record), and never hurts you in the WHIP column (1.21). Expect the ERA to come down a bit as we move forward an expect him to continue to be one of the safest elite level arms in the game.

Max Scherzer (+46, $270K)
And that is why I kept telling everyone to keep the faith in Scherzer. The last time Mad Max took the hill he held the Pirates to two runs over seven innings as he allowed only five base runners. All of that is great news but it was the 15 punchouts that made it an elite effort. Fourth in baseball with 63 punchouts, Scherzer leads baseball with an 11.65 K/9 mark. You just don’t give up on an arm like that, even when it’s struggling to produce consistent results.

Ryan Zimmerman (+24, $90K)
Over his last three games Zimmerman has pushed his average up .025 points thank to seven hits. Struggling to find his way after injury, Zimmerman is still hitting just .257 with two homers and 12 RBI through 28 games. The lack of pop is what has really dragged him down so far as his .367 SLG is literally more than a hundred points low (career .476). Frequently injured, it seems like Ryan takes a while to find his groove once he returns. Seems like he just may have found that groove over the past few days.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Anthony Bass (-55, $185K)
He will be counted on heavily moving forward as it appears Cory Luebke will undergo Tommy John surgery. Bass has made eight starts and only once time has he allowed more than three earned runs resulting in a 2.89 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He’s also whiffed 51 batters in 53 innings showing a rather powerful right arm. Impressively, he’s actually been more effective on the road (2.57 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 22 Ks in 21 IP) than at home (3.09 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 29 Ks in 32 IP), and that means something when your home games are at Petco Park.

Hiroki Kuroda (-52, $178K)
Through eight starts he has been awful twice and solid ever other time he’s taken the hill. I’ve gotten so many questions about the guy after his last outing, but just remember this – before his last outing against the Blue Jays his ERA was 3.56 and his WHIP was in the 1.30′s. If you were expecting more from him hit season in New York you likely had set your sights too high.

Madison Bumgarner (-46, $276)
From April 10th through May 10th MadBum went 5-0 while allowing a total of six earned runs. Yeah, he was dominating. The last two times he’s taken the bump have been far from impressive – he’s allowed eight earned runs over 13.1 innings leading to two loses – but on the year the guy has a 3.10 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and has looked every bit like the guy who might be ready to elevate his game even further this season.

Josh Beckett (-37, $279K)
I don’t know how his value has dropped the past week given that he’s worked 14.2 innings while striking out 14 batters an allowing one earned run in two victories. Putting behind him the seven runs he allowed to the Indians, Beckett is back to being a strong option on the hill for the Red Sox, and fantasy squads. In his eight starts he has six quality starts an overall his 40 Ks in 49.1 innings and 1.28 WHIP are solid enough to offset a somewhat elevated 4.28 ERA.

Denard Span (-19, $61K)
Span went hitless his last two games of the week but he still has six hits in his last five games. Hitting .291 on the year with four steals, Span is the type of player who is more valuable in real life than in fantasy. He will be an average booster (career .285) and he has the speed to be a 20+ steal guy, but he has no power and with the Twins struggling to consistency put up runs he’s scored just 17 times in 37 games despite a solid .359 OBP.

DAILY CONTEST

You can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

The Fantasy Beat: H2H Matchup

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray are ready to find out who is the best host on the Fantasy Beat! They discuss the 16 team Mixed 5×5 Head to Head League they are both in and just drafted. Justin and Trevor compare their opening day rosters to see who will have an edge entering the season.

Listen to the Audio.