2013 SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio – Experts Draft

I just keep doing fantasy baseball drafts don’t I? Seems like every time I wake up I get my bowl of cereal, my Red Bull (sometimes there is vodka in it), answer a plethora of tweets and emails, and then I end up being in a draft of some kind. Which draft am I talking about in this article? It’s the SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio draft, populated by the genius minds of the network. How did my team turn out? Before I get to that, here are the rules.

12 team mixed league
5×5 scoring
14 hitters, nine pitchers
six reserve rounds (also one DL spot)

Here’s the club.

C: Mike Napoli (9th round), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (18)
1B: Adam Dunn (15)
2B: Martin Prado (6)
3B: Miguel Cabrera (1)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (2)
MI: Andrelton Simmons (21)
CI: Kevin Youkilis (17), Lance Berkman (26)
OF: B.J. Upton (3), Shin-Soo Choo (4), Austin Jackson (5), Melky Cabrera (14), Juan Pierre (16), Dayan Viciedo (22), Rajai Davis (27)
UT: Brandon Belt (20)

STARTING PITCHERS: James Shields (7), Yovani Gallardo (8), Zack Greinke (10), Tim Lincecum (11), James McDonald (23), Wandy Rodriguez (24), Edinson Volquez (25), Francisco Liriano (29 – DL)

RELIEF PITCHERS: J.J. Putz (12), John Axford (13), Chris Perez (19), David Hernandez (28)

It’s important to note a couple of salient points before I dig into my team.

This league has one DL spot. That was part of the reason I wasn’t worried about taking Liriano with my last pick. I’ll stick him on waivers and add another arm in week one.

This league was done on a service that has very lenient rules for positional qualification. Take the case of Prado. He should only qualify at outfield (119 games) and 3B (25), but in this league he also qualifies at shortstop (13) and second (10). I say it all the time, but it’s vital to know the rules of your league, and in this league the following players qualify at more than one spot:

Ramirez: 3B, SS
Prado: 2B, 3B, SS, OF
Napoli: C, 1B
Dunn: 1B, OF
Youkilis: 1B, 3B

No on to the offense.

Napoli and Saltalamacchia might hit a combined .240, but both should go go deep at least 20 times with Napoli having 30 HR upside if he can get 500 at-bats at first base for the Red Sox.

I had the #3 pick and was worried that Ryan Braun and Miguel Cabrera would go 1-2 leaving me to pass on Mike Trout at #3. Luckily Trout went #2 overall so I could draft Cabrera. Dunn is a batting average disaster, but he’s nails in HR, RBI, runs scored. He’s hit at least 38 homers with 92 RBIs and 79 runs scored in eight of nine years. Youkilis should see a nice bounce back at third base in Yankee Stadium, and Berkman was also a late round add who is just one season removed from hitting .300 with 30 homers. Belt has 15/15 talent, and this might be the year he finally lives up to his billing.

Everyone keeps hating on HanRam. Give me that 20/20 talent that qualifies at two spots. I’m a big believer this year. Simmons is likely to bat leadoff for the Braves this season in what could be a potent lineup. I don’t love Simmons this year, but I’ll take that talent in the 21st round. Prado is my starter at second. I’ll take that .300 average and potential 15/15 upside without hesitation.

My outfield is solid. Upton could go 20/40. Choo could go 20/20. Jackson could go 15/25. I’ll take that as a top-3. My fourth is Melky Cabrera. I’m not quite sure how he performs coming back from his PED suspension, but after proving himself to be a .300 hitter the past two years, I took a shot (more on the reason for that below). My 5th outfielder is Juan Pierre. Forty steals and 80 runs, not to mention a .280 average, seem doable. Viciedo never walks, but that’s a 25 homer bat, and I have no idea why Davis was still there in the 27th round. I’ll trade him to someone who needs some speed.

On the hill…

I went earlier for pitching in this draft that I normally do. Why? Because it was where the value was. I didn’t jump into the mix early, the 7th round was my first arm, but look at my top-4: Shields, Gallardo, Greinke and Lincecum. Do you honestly think that each of those four men can’t strike out 200 batters while winning 15 games? People are worried about Greinke’s arm. He was worth taking a shot on in the 10th round (his current ADP is inside the top-60). I picked him up at selection #118. Lincecum? I’ve long been on record expecting a bounce back (see – Is Lincecum Washed Up After Years of Dominance?). Behind that foursome I have another big arm in McDonald, and Wandy Rodriguez is a solid 6th starter. I also added another potential big K arm in Volquez in the reserve rounds. In the pen I also did something I rarely do – I ended up with three closers. I took Putz/Axford because of the value I felt they held, and then much like with Greinke, I just couldn’t pass up Perez in the 19th when others were seemingly afraid to take him cause he might miss the start of the season. I thought Perez was a great value in the 19th round, side issue be damned. Don’t forget that Perez had 36 and 39 saves the last two years. I also tabbed Hernandez as a middle reliever, one who would likely take over if Putz were injured.

Some final thoughts.

I have batting average drains in Dunn, Napoli, Saltalamacchia and Upton. I offset that with the likes of Prado, Miguel Cabrera, Choo, Jackson and Melky Cabrera. I added two all speed guys in Pierre/Davis to help me strongly in steals (not to mention the potential 20 thefts guys like Ramirez, Simmons, Upton, Choo and Jackson). I’ve got youth – Belt, Simmons – and age – Youkilis and Dunn. I really like the balance of this offense.

On the mound, I like it. My top-4, if healthy, will be better than any other top-4 in this league. If my three relievers stay healthy, that’s 100 saves. For not taking a starter early, and not taking a reliever until the 12th round, don’t you think my staff turned out pretty well? Me too.

For the full RESULTS OF THE DRAFT click on the link.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

The Final Day

It’s a sad day for many in the world of baseball as this is the final day of the regular season. Hopefully your team is in the playoff mix, and your fantasy team still has something to play for on this final day of the 2012 regular season.

Miguel Cabrera is on the cusp of the Triple Crown which would be the first since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967. Cabrera has a seven point lead over Mike Trout in the batting race (.331 to .324), a one homer lead over Josh Hamilton (44 to 43), and an 11 RBI lead over Hamilton (139 to 128). Cabrera also leads the AL in SLG (.608) and OPS (1.002) and as great as Trout has been, that’s going to be hard for him to overcome when ballots are cast for the AL MVP Award.

Clayton Kershaw (hip) will make his final start today even though the Dodgers have been eliminated from the playoffs (the Dodgers went 32-31 after they picked up Hanley Ramirez, 29-27 after they added Shane Victorino, and 17-18 after they brought to town Adrian Gonzalez). Why? He’s chasing the Cy Young Award. Currently first in the NL in ERA (2.58) and WHIP (1.03) he needs 10 Ks to pass R.A. Dickey (230) for the NL lead in strikeouts as he chases his 14th victory. Even if he gets there I would bet that either Dickey or Gio Gonzalez wins the award given how the voters have traditionally cast their ballots.

Buster Posey pushed his average up to .337, .010 points clear of Andrew McCutchen for the NL Lead. Posey will obviously ended the year as the leader in the NL and it seems quite likely that he will also lead baseball in batting average. Of course, that’s not really accurate as Melky Cabrera hit .346 this season but MLB took the easy way out and removed him from consideration for the award to save face by changing the rule book mid season to remove from consideration players that were suspended for PED use.

I still can’t believe it, but Jimmy Rollins went 20/20 this season from June 1st on.

Carlos Ruiz had one hell of a season that was marred by injury. Each of the past two years he had hit better than .280, and he always walked as many times as he struck out, but that doesn’t come close to explaining his .326 batting average, especially since he posted a career worst 0.58 BB/K ratio (it was 1.00 or better the previous four seasons). At the same time, I can’t decide if the batting average or the power output was the bigger surprise. Having never hit more than nine homers in a season, and totaling 14 the past two years, Ruiz somehow went out and hit 16 bombs this year. The fact that he more than doubled his HR/F ratio this season was the reason, especially since he had a four year low in his fly ball rate. Don’t overdraft him next season – he’s not hitting .326 or going deep 16 times again.

Just for the hell of it. Who says beautiful women and baseball don’t go together?

Think you had a rough Tuesday? James Shields tossed a nine inning complete game… and lost. If that wasn’t bad enough, he authored one of the greatest complete game loses in baseball history. Shields allowed just one run in the game, two hits, and didn’t walk a batter. He also struck out a Rays’ all-time record 15 batters in the outing (no one has noticed, but Shields will end the year with 223 Ks which right now is tied with King Felix for fourth in baseball). That outing by Shields enabled him to become the first pitcher of the modern era, since 1900, to strikeout 15 batters without walking one with 15 or more strikeouts and just one run allowed.

What’s more surprising – Chase Headley knocking in 113 runs, Alfonso Soriano platting 108 or Justin Upton sitting at 67 RBIs?

By Ray Flowers

Fun With Numbers

There are only a couple of weeks left in the 2012 MLB regular season, but that doesn’t mean that there aren’t a whole host of numbers that are of interest as we head toward the playoffs.

.241: The league leading BABIP of Jered Weaver which is one point better than his teammate, Ervin Santana. While it’s not logical to think either man will replicate that number in 2013, it should be noted that Weaver has always been a pretty darn impressive in his ability to hold the hits at bay. Weaver has posted a BABIP under .280 each of the past three years, and last season that mark was a mere .250. Santana is no slouch in his own right with marks of .288 and .272 the past two years.

.323: Dan Uggla’s batting average over his last 10 games. Uggla is batting a mere .214 on the year, but he is just the #2 away from a lot of statistical milestones. Uggla has 18 homers, 68 RBIs and 78 runs scored for the Braves.

1: The number of homers that Yadier Molina needs to record his first 20 homer effort. He’s also two runs scored from his first 60 run effort and three RBIs short of his first 70 RBI campaign. He’s not Buster Posey (.333-22-93-73), but Molina is darn close as he’s also rocking an impressive .320 batting average that is fourth in the NL.

1.014: The OPS of Rickie Weeks in the month of September. Weeks has been flat out killing it the last two plus weeks. In the 15 games in the month of September he has gone deep seven times, stolen four bases, knocked in 14 runners and scored 14 times. That is the definition of elite level production folks. The .231 hitter on the season has also hit .280 over his last 69 games putting behind in the dreadful start he had to the campaign.

2: The number of homers and steals that Andrew McCutchen needs to have his first 30/20 season. Andrew’s 28 homers are already a career best, he’s one off his career best of 89 RBIs, and he just reached 100 runs scored for the first time. He’s also those two steals from a 4th straight 20 theft season and he will also set career bests in AVG (.343), OBP (.412) and SLG (.569) as his previous career bests are .286/.365/.471. However, he’s now three points behind Melky Cabrera for the NL batting title lead as he he hit .252 in August. He’s rebounded to hit .327 in September so we will see if he can catch the admitted cheater.

2.5: According to Dave Smith, founder of Retrosheet.org, teams may be paying too much attention to who they have working the 9th inning. According to his research, teams leading by one run after eight innings have won nearly 86 percent of the time. Moreover, since Mariano Rivera became the Yankees closer in 1997 the Yankees have won 97.2 percent of the games that they were leading heading into the 9th inning. The lowly Pirates, to compare, have won 94.7 percent of those games which may lead to the following contention – teams are patently overpaying their 9th inning arms because, statistically speaking, there isn’t as much difference between an elite closer and a group of solid arms working the 9th inning.

3/5: The number of homers and steals that Mike Trout needs to complete his remarkable run to 30 homers and 50 steals (he obviously has 27 HRs and 45 SBs). There have only been two such seasons in the history of baseball. Eric Davis had 37 homers and 50 steals in 1987 (he went 27/80 in 1986) while Barry Bonds, then of the Pirates before his muscles outsized his brain, had 33 homers and 52 thefts in 1990. One other note. Since I’m obnoxious and wont let things go… Trout is hitting a robust .329 on the year, including .317 in the second half, but that average has dipped to .280 over his last 43 games.

16/19: The homer and steals total of Danny Espinosa this year. He’s undergoing an MRI on his left shoulder today so it remains to be seen how much he will be able to build on those numbers. He won’t get to 20/20, but 15/15 as a second baseman ain’t all that bad now is it?

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Beat – PEDs

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray discuss some key trades this season and the effect PEDs in fantasy: Melky Cabrera, Bartolo Colon.

Also, baseball only talk about players that have switched teams this year – Hanley Ramirez, James Loney, Also Chase Headley, Juan Pierre

LISTEN TO THE AUDIO.

Around the Horn: July10, 2012

FIRST HALF SURPRISES

(1) Mike Trout most valuable players since call up.

(2) R.A. Dickey #1 pitcher in fantasy baseball.

(3) Edwin Encarnacion living up to expectations.

(4) Melky Cabrera excelling for Giants.

(5) Jason Kipnis 20/30 threat.

(6) Ian Desmond the top SS in fantasy.

(7) Jake Peavy and Johan Santana putting injury woes behind them?

(8) Lance Lynn has been great, but bullpen in future?

(9) Fernando Rodney best RP in game?

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your drink on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your daily fantasy baseball lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Phillies vs. Kyle Lohse: Look at the numbers some of the Phillies’ batters have put up against Lohse, they are pretty staggering – Juan Pierre (.500), Ty Wigginton (.533), Brian Schneider (.308), Hunter Pence (.317) and Placido Polanco (.357). All of that doesn’t include Ryan Howard (.500) and Jim Thome (.400) who aren’t active. Moreover, the entire Phillies roster has hit .299 against Lohse.

Carlos Pena vs. Jon Lester: In two games as a leadoff man Pena is hitting .375 with a homer, three runs an a .545 OBP. He’ll look to keep the good times rolling Friday when he takes on Jon Lester, a pitcher that he has hit hard to the tune of five homers, 13 RBI an a 1.086 OPS in 37 at-bats.

Ichiro Suzuki vs. Ervin Santana: Hitting just .283 on the season, Ichiro is no longer the dominating force he once was. Still, the guy is no stranger to the base hit and given that he faces Santana, who he is hitting .350 against in 80 at-bats (big time sample size), you have to feel pretty good about his odds. Speaking of something having to do with odds, how about this oddity – Ichiro has tried to steal off Santana nine times and he’s never been successful.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Anthony Bass vs. Mets: The Metropolitans are hitting .259 with a mere 26 homers and  187 runs scored (the homer total is second lowest in the NL and they’ve scored three runs more than the Giants which should tell you how potent their offense isn’t). Bass has a 2.89 ERA and 1.15 WHIP on the season which includes a total of four runs allowed in his last three starts.

Yovani Gallardo vs. D’backs: Gallardo is on a roll having gone 3-straight outings of six innings while allowing two or fewer runs. He’s also scaled back the long ball having allowed just one in eight starts.  Friday he faces a D’backs club that he has owned in his career going 5-0 with a 1.20 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 32 Ks in 30 innings.

Tim Hudson vs Nationals: Since returning to the field all that Hudson has done is pitch like, Tim Hudson. In five starts he is 3-1 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, an in four of his outings he’s allowed two or fewer runs. He faces a Washington club that used to be the Expos (remember that?) Friday. In 23 starts against the franchise he has been phenomenal going 14-3 with a 2.05 ERA an a 1.09 WHIP.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Melky Cabrera vs. Mark Buehrle: I admit it. I was apparently wrong about Melky Cabrera. Watching him on a daily basis, all the guy does is hit. Currently batting .362 on his way to leading baseball in hits (67) there is virtually no way he won’t go off Saturday. Cabrera is 17-for-27 against Buehrle for a .630 average. Flipping amazing.

Alex Rodriguez vs. Bartolo Colon: Flipping amazing #2. A-Rod is hitting .468 against Colon over 47 at-bats. He’s not rapping out singles either as his 22 hits have produced six doubles, a triple an eight homers leading to 17 RBI. The guy has a 1.149, not OPS but SLG mark, against Colon (his OPS is 1.630).

Luke Scott vs. Josh Beckett: Scott is having a strong power season with eight homers and 31 RBI, though his average is languishing down at .243. Perhaps seeing Beckett on the hill will help him to continue his productive efforts as he has 10 hits in 24 at-bats (.417) including three homers and seven RBI.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Mike Minor vs. Nationals: This one is as much a hunch as anything else. Look, I know his ERA is 6.96 and his WHIP 1.45, but I’m telling you, the parts are far greater than the sum here. In 53 innings this season he has 48 Ks. In 15.2 innings against the Nats in his career he has 16 Ks, has issued just five walks, and has a 1.28 WHIP. Risky as all hell, but sooner or later he is going to have a gem.

Bud Norris vs. Dodgers: Over his last four starts Norris is 4-0 with a 0.35 ERA and 0.92 WHIP while he’s racked up 29 Ks in 26 innings as perhaps the hottest pitcher in baseball (people might be a bit slow to wake up to that fact if we can judge by the numbers over at Fleaflicker). The Saturday matchup affords him a Dodgers club that he has faced five times leading to some dominating numbers as well (2.67 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 28 Ks in 30.1 innings with a .183 BAA). Lock and load.

Jerome Williams vs. Mariners: It’s almost as simple as – if a guy is facing the Mariners you can have confidence starting him. Williams has had success in two starts against the Mariners with a 3.00 ERA and 0,73 WHIP over 15 innings, and there’s no reason to think he won’t keep the good times rolling with another solid effort.

CONTESTS

I just gave you some rather substantial advice on how you could have success this weekend, right? Sign up for the Beat Ray Promotion – it will be on the $50 freeroll this week. Go to the BaseballGuys/DailyJoust landing page, sign up for the $50 Free Roll, and have at it.

Giants, Royals Deal

The Giants added a bat, something everyone knows that they need, while dealing away a problem child who might have had the best arm on the team. The Giants also managed to do something that I always tell people not to do in the fantasy game. What boner did they pull? The sold low and bought high. Maybe they should spend some more time reading my stuff.

The Deal:
Giants Receive: Melky Cabrera
Royal Receive: Jonathan Sanchez and Ryan Verdugo

Cabrera had the best season of a rather undistinguished career in 2011 as he hit .305 with 18 homers, 20 steals, 87 RBI and 102 runs scored. He also racked up 201 hits to impress everyone. However, this is what I see. Cabrera had success because of the copious plate appearance total. I mean, he had 706 of them (the 11th most in baseball). As a result, he was able to post career bests in RBI, runs, hits, doubles (44), homers etc. In terms of his ratios, his BB-rate of 5.0 percent was a career worst. His K-rate of 13.3 percent was a career worst. His .339 OBP was only .008 better than his career rate. His 1.44 GB/FB ratio was just off his career mark of 1.52. His line drive rate of 20.3 percent was only slightly above his 19.4 percent career mark. He also posted a career-high of .332 in the BABIP category, .033 points better than his career average and the first time he had a mark in the .300′s since 2006. It was a strong year in terms of his fantasy value, but in terms of his real world performance his success was largely a factor of those 706 PAs and not because of growth in his game.

Sanchez was a strong performer in 2010 when he went 13-9 with a 3.07 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 205 Ks in 193.1 innings. Last season he regressed. Not only was he limited to just 101.1 innings with issues with his elbow, he also saw his K/9 mark go down half a batter (it was still an impressive 9.06), while his terrible BB/9 rate (4.47 in 2010) shot up well past pathetic into the realm of atrocious (5.86). So instead of trading him coming off his best season, the Giants held on and ended up having top deal him at his lowest point in four years. Great move guys. Sanchez still owns dominating stuff, but until he does a better job of throwing strikes it just won’t matter. If he were able to get his walk rate under control, and to this point the best BB/9 mark he’s ever had is 4.27 in 2008 – a full batter above the big league average mind you – Sanchez would be one of the better left-handed starting pitchers in baseball. Unfortunately, he’s shown little consistency in his career and the results are a mediocre WHIP (1.39) and ERA (4.26). At this point he’s mostly potential and little substance.

Verdugo is a left-handed starter much in the same mold as Sanchez. He throws hard, his K/9 mark is in the double digits during his minor league career (11.1), but he’s also walking far too many batters leading to 4.5 BB/9 mark. When he’s locked in few can hit him, but far too often he ends up beating himself. He’s not a lock to contribute with the Royals this season either as he has thrown just 130.1 innings at the Double-A level.

If everything comes together for Sanchez the Giants will rue the day they made this deal. It will also end up looking bad if they (a) fail to sign Cabrera to a long term deal (he’s a free agent after the 2012 season), or (b) if Cabrera returns to being the hitter he was for his entire career prior to 2011. As stated, much of what Cabrera accomplished in 2011 was the result, NOT of improvements in his game, but because of all those extra plate appearances an a rather fortuitous BABIP mark. The data seem to favor a regression in the batting average (career .275), in the homer category (he’d never hit more than 17 homers in back-to-back seasons before hitting 18 in 2011), and in the steals department for Melky (he’d never stolen more than 13 bags in a season, and with 10 caught stealing last year in 30 attempts he really didn’t add anything to the offense). The Giants needed a bat and Cabrera fills that need, but let’s hope the Giants realize that they would be lucky to get a repeat effort out of Cabrera in 2012 so they still have a lot of work to do to bolster an offense that was the club’s undoing in 2011.

Final Notes

The Giants’ outfield might be Cabrera in center, Nate Schierholtz in right and ??? They could be interested in bringing back Carlos Beltran and/or Andres Torres/Cody Ross, but for now the look of the outfield is one of a second division club. If it’s Aubrey Huff in left and Brandon Belt at first base, would that make you feel any better? Me neither.

Lorenzo Cain will likely open the 2012 season as the Royals starting center fielder. After hitting .312 with 16 homers, 81 RBI, 84 runs and 16 steals at Triple-A in 2011, he’s someone to remember in the later rounds of mixed league drafts – he’s got the skills to offer a substantial season in 2012.

By Ray Flowers

On the Cusp

You remember back in April when Kay Adams bet me that Willie Bloomquist would steal at least 26 bases this season, one more than his career best? Willie ain’t gonna make it. What a shock. Bloomquist has 19 steals on the year, only 12 after the month of April, and for the first time ever he has been caught more than six times with 10 CS. @heykayadams on Twitter better get ready to sing that Neil Diamond song and to make that video she promised she would if she lost.

Melky Cabrera has 18 homers and 20 steals. So the team will push him hard the final couple of days to give him a shot at 20/20, right? Wrong. The Royals have already said that as soon as he gets to 200 hits that they will shut him down to give others some playing time. Cabrera has 199 hits making his dream of 20/20 likely nothing more than a pipe dream. Don’t worry Royals’ fans. Jeff Francoeur pulled off the 20/20 trick with 20 homers and 22 steals. That outing was shocking given that the last time he hit 20 homers was 2006, and that he had never swiped more than eight bases in a season. Since I mentioned both of those Royals outfielders, why not mention the third as well. Alex Gordon had the breakout season that was long predicted of him as he hit .303 with 23 homers, 87 RBI, 101 runs and 17 steals. How good was that trio of outfielders? Their average 5×5 line was .297-20-87-91-20. How amazing is that?

Albert Pujols is trying to extend his major league record run of .300-30-100 to 11-straight seasons. He’s already at 37 homers, but after going 0-for-7 the past two days his average has dipped to an even .300. He’ll need to keep the hits coming while knocking in two runs to extend his streak (he has 98 RBI on the year). He’s also scored at least 100 runs in 10 of 11 seasons. The one time he missed was 2007 when he scored 99 times.

Ben Zobrist has had an uneven season no doubt, but in the end he has been highly productive. The question now is will he get to some significant statistical milestones this year. He has 19 homers, 89 RBI, 97 runs and 20 steals. A big final couple of days could give him a 20-90-100-20 season. Since 2000, there have only been three players in the AL East who have reached all four of those totals in one season: Alex Rodriguez did it three times, Alfonso Soriano twice, and Bobby Abreu once.

Last week in Exclusive Clubs, I listed a whole bunch of players with unique power/speed combos. With three days left in the season, there have been some changes.

Jacoby Ellsbury went deep three times the last two days for the Red Sox and he now has 31 homers and 38 steals. What a bounce back season.

Matt Kemp has 37 homers and 40 steals. He could, could, sneak into the 40/40 club.

Ian Kinsler went deep twice in the last four games and he also swiped four bases. That leaves him one steal from a second 30/30 effort in three seasons.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: September 21, 2011

There are only days left in the 2011 fantasy baseball season. With that fact, let’s look forward to 2012 with today’s mailbag piece from questions that were submitted at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Is Melky Cabrera a top-20 OF going into 2012 season and is he worthy of a keeper spot in 16 team league (keeping eight)?
– @JakobMD

This will likely be a hot button question for many heading into 2012, so why not address it in 2011.

Coming into the 2011 season, Cabrera was one of those guys that you weren’t overly happy to have as your fourth or fifth outfielder in a 12 team mixed leagues. He wasn’t going to kill you you any category, but he also wasn’t going to a big help. In fact, the best 5×5 numbers that he posted from 2005-10 would lead you to a season of .280-13-73-75-13. Again, those aren’t horrible numbers, but nothing in that line really pops. In addition, his slash line of .267/.328/.379 from 2005-10 was actually worse than the league average of .269/.337/.425. He just wasn’t anything other than average.

This year that’s changed. Cabrera is two homers away from going 20/20, and he’s also hitting a career best .305. Mind you, he’d only hit better than .275 once, and had never hit 15 homers or stolen 15 bases in a season. One of the reasons for that counting category growth is that he’s posted a whopping 686 plate appearances, 158 more than he averaged from 2005-10. When a guy racks up 700 plate appearances he’s going to have solid counting numbers.

The real question I have is has he shown any skills growth? Let’s take a look.

This year his line drive rate is 20.5 percent. His career mark is 19.4 percent.
This year his ground ball rate is 47.1 percent. His career mark is 48.7 percent.
This year his fly ball rate is 32.4 percent. His career mark is 31.9 percent.

Nothing has changed there.

This year his walk rate is 4.8 percent. Not only is that well below his career rate of 7.4 percent, it’s also a career worst.

This year his K-rate is 13.3 percent. Not only is that worse than his career mark of 12.0, it’s also a career worst.

Those are not changes for the good.

This year Cabrera has a BABIP mark of .330. The owner of a career mark of .298, Cabrera’s BABIP has been under that .298 mark in each of his previous four seasons.

This year his HR/F ratio is 10.2 percent. That’s certainly not a crazy number, but it’s 40 percent higher than his 7.0 career rate. This will also mark only the second season of his career with a mark above his 7.0 percent career rate.

So what does all of that mean? It means that the reason that Cabrera has been so impressive this year is a little luck (BABIP, HR/F) and a big time result of all of his plate appearances. Throw in a declining walk rate and a rising K-rate, and the smart money would be on Cabrera failing to duplicate his 2011 efforts next season. Given that, I simply cannot suggest to anyone that Cabrera has a legitimate shot at being a top-20 outfielder in 2012, but that doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be kept if 128 players are being protected in your league.

Thanks for the great advice and info. Came in 2nd in my 12T H2H league. Quick Q: Why do you prefer roto over H2H?
– @samuelrsantana

There are so many reasons why baseball should be rotisserie over head to head (H2H), let me count the ways.

(1) Baseball is a marathon with 162 games. H2H turns that marathon into a sprint. If you’re looking for the fantasy game to somewhat approximate the on field product, then the fantasy game should operate as a mirror image of that actual game. In baseball that means you should play a season of 1-162 games played, not some artificially contrived session of a weekly match up. Let me give you a concrete example of why this is in point #2.

(2) We all know that Albert Pujols will hit .300-30-100 (he’s on the cusp of doing it for the 11th straight season to start his career). However, we really have no idea when he will go deep, when he will produce hits, and when he will knock runners in. If you’re playing in a H2H match up what happens if Pujols hits .450 with three homers and 10 RBI? You’ll likely win that week. What happens though if he hits .150 with no homers and no RBI the following week? You would likely loose that week. Still, if Pujols followed this path, alternating greatness with putrid work, he’d end the year batting .300 with something like 39 homers and 130 RBI. That’s a phenomenal season, right? However, in H2H he’d be a killer to your club in those 13 weeks that he disappeared. Baseball is about consistency and working through the grind as much as anything. When you play H2H you remove that aspect of the game completely.

(3) Would you ever draft Gavin Floyd over Dan Haren? That’s like saying you would prefer to cuddle up with Cate Blanchett over Brooklyn Decker? However, there are scenarios where you would end up starting Floyd over Haren simply because you’re looking at one week segments (there is no scenario in which Cate would be the choice over Brooklyn). What if Haren was facing the Yankees and Floyd was pitching in Seattle and Oakland – would you start Floyd because he was a two start pitcher on the road, where he has success, in two parks that favor the hurler? Even worse, would you start a guy like Rick Porcello or Luke Hochevar over Haren if they had two starts? The answer is you might, and we’ve all made that decision at one point or another. However, does this make any sense? Of course it doesn’t.  We’re sometimes “forced” to go with an inferior pitcher merely because we need the starts to keep up with our opponent in the H2H format. In this instance we’re not rewarding the fantasy owner who rostered the players with the best skill, we’re merely rewarding those that were first two the waiver-wire to add a 2-start pitcher. There isn’t any skill in that.

I’m just going to say it: H2H has infected baseball because of it’s proliferation in fantasy football. It’s one of the worst trends to hit fantasy baseball – ever. If you want to go soft and set your lineup once a week, I can live with that. However, if you want to make baseball a one week match up against an opponent you’re bastardizing the game of baseball completely.

There, I said it.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Deadline Weekend

I’m on a working vacation. As almost all of you know by now, I do a daily fantasy show for SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. While I do the show from the Bay Area in California, and I’m not kidding I literally do the show in my slippers at times, my co-hosts are in St. Louis while the SiriusXM studio that the show originates from is in Washington D.C. I was able to visit D.C. to meet the crew this week, and it was a great time. I’m now in St. Louis and the good times are still rolling. Some thoughts from the trip…

Went to the legendary Pappy’s Smokehouse for lunch today in St. Louis. Had quite the feast, and the staff was super friendly. Give yourself a lot of time if you go though, it took 45 minutes in line just to place our order.

It’s warm as hell back east. It’s 90 degrees in STL today an it feels cool compared to the temperatures I’ve been subjected to of late.

I toured the dome where the Rams play (thanks Amanda), and got a behind the scenes tour. Nice facility, but odd to think about a football game being played under a roof.

Speaking of the NFL, I’ve been asked multiple times about whether or not I will be ranking football players here at BBGuys. The answer to that question is – I think so. I won’t be doing much NFL writing here – though I will be writing NFL for Rotoinfo.com and FantasyAlarm.com. However, I’m thinking about doing something for the BBGuys crowd, and that is, releasing my own personal positional rankings. I’m thinking that I might do so next week, so look for information on how you can get your hands on the “Oracle’s” 2011 NFL rankings.

Some trade deadline thoughts…

Hunter Pence is as consolid a hitter as you will find. Any team would be wise to add him to the mix if the cost wasn’t prohibitive.

Ubaldo Jimenez should remain a Rockie. Don’t know why they would be looking to deal him when they control him for the next few years at a very reasonable price.

Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera are available for the right price according to reports. According to the Royals that ‘right price’ is a #3 starting pitcher. Good luck with that Royals.

The Rangers aren’t certain what is wrong with Neftali Feliz, so they are looking to add an arm to their bullpen. They appear to be a finalist in the Heath Bell sweepstakes, but the two sides are having a hard problem coming to an agreement. Late word suggests that the Rangers are now interested in the Athletics’ Andres Bailey. However, don’t you think they are gonna have to pay an awful lot to get an arm from their own division? Given that Bailey is under control through 2014 this is most likely a smokescreen being set out to get the Padres back to the dealing table.

By Ray Flowers