Breaking Down the NL

I wrote my weekly National League breakdown piece today. Here are a few of the tidbits that really stuck out for me.

* Daniel Hudson leads the NL with 79.2 innings pitched since August 1st.

* Tommy Hanson has a 2.77 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over his last 14 starts. He is 2-6 in that time.

* Carlos Zambrano is 6-0 with a 1.63 ERA over his last 12 appearances.

* Scott Rolen has 20 homers on the year but only three in his last 50 games.

* Melvin Mora is hitting .325 with 17 RBI in the month of September.

* Clay Hensley has a 2.25 ERA and a K per inning over 72 frames.

* Bud Norris has 152 Ks over 147.2 innings.

* Rod Barajas has five homers in 59 at-bats with the Dodgers.

* Randy Wolf has a 2.56 ERA over his last 10 starts.

* Carlos Beltran is hitting .329 with a .991 OPS in the month of September.

* Ryan Madson has made 42 appearances since the All-Star break with a 1.32 ERA and 0.89 WHIP.

* The Pirates have only only player who is hitting above .250 while qualifying for the batting title (502 plate appearances). It’s Andrew McCutchen at .284.

* Jon Jay is hitting a mere .214 over his last 25 games.

* Will Venable is batting an insane .529 over his last nine starts.

*Aubrey Huff is leading the Giants in the Triple Crown categories (.291-26-85).

* Adam Dunn has at least 37 homers and 92 RBI in 7-straight years. There has only been one longer streak in the annals of the game; Rafael Palmeiro had a stretch of 9-straight years from 1995-2003.

To read the entire article click on the link to National League Breakdown.

Anyone out there notice that Mark Ellis is hitting .400 in September? His season has been a disappointment with only four homers and six steals after back-to-back 10/10 efforts the past two years, but his .281 batting would be his best mark since a career best effort of .316 in 2005.

What the heck is wrong with Jonathan Papelbon? It’s always hard to judge relievers on the fly given how small of a sample size we have to deal with, but his work of late has been awful – and that is with a capital “A.” He has made nine appearances in September during which time he has a 10.61 ERA, a 2.14 WHIP and a .372 BAA. At the same time he has a rather amazing total of 18 punchouts in just 9.1 innings. His late push in the K category has upped his season long K/9 mark to 10.11, his fourth straight year above ten, though his BB/9 mark is a career worst of 3.69 (more than a run above his 2.55 career mark). I tend to think he is just missing his spots right now, though this late season run of putrid production clearly won’t lock him into the 9th inning next season, not when Daniel Bard continues to deal. Bard has more than a K per inning this season (73 in 72.1 IP), owns a 1.87 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP, and has been amazingly effective in his two season big league career (2.59 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 10.06 K/9, .199 BAA).

Justin Upton’s season is likely over because of that shoulder injury of his. He is visiting Dr. James Andrews for a second opinion today, but with a week left there is zero reason for him to return to game action even if he gets a positive report. That means he will finish the year with a .273 average, 17 homers, 69 RBI, 73 runs and 17 steals in 132 games. Every one of those numbers is smaller than his effort from 2009 (.300-26-86-84-20 in 138 games). In fact, his OPS dropped exactly .100 points down to .799 as he racked up 15 more punchouts (152). Still, he could be undervalued on draft day next season as he clearly has 30 homer, 20 steal potential.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 18, 2010

(1) Troy Tulowitzki to miss 6-8 with broken wrist. Carlos Gonzalez also out on Friday.

(2) Jake Peavy has fluid, will still pitch on Saturday.

(3) Rich Harden has shot to accelerate healing process.

(4) Derek Holland tweaks knee while doing rehab work for shoulder.

(5) Mark Reynolds out of lineup, injured and struggling (13 Ks in 15 ABs).

(6) Alex Rodriguez back at third, Jorge Posada should be able to catch in interleague play

(7) Returning on Friday from injury- Jason Bay, Orlando Hudson.

By Ray Flowers

Free Agency – A Look Ahead

With the season nearing it’s conclusion, at least from a fantasy perspective, I thought I would look forward to the 2010 season, something that Mike Sheets in Under the Tag, and Ted Carlson in Five Tool Blog have started to do. I’ll take a bit of a different take not listing my top-10′s or top-30 overall but instead I’ll hit on a some of the free agents out there that could be plying their trade for a new team come next season.

Carlos Delgado: Looks like his ’09 season might end with a mere 94 at-bats on the back of his ball card do to that right hip surgery. He hit 38 homers with 115 RBI last season but he will be 38 next year and hit just 24 home runs while batting .258 in 2007. He’ll have to sign an incentive laden deal, perhaps to DH.

Adam LaRoche: Again one of the hottest hitters in the game in the second half (.314-9-24 with a .919 OPS in 44 games). Maybe he should start training really hard in January so that he could hit like this in the first half. No reason the Braves don’t bring him back.

Placido Polanco: Anyone out there looking for the prototypical #2 hitter? His average has slipped this season (.277 versus a career .303 mark), but he is on the cusp of a career-high in RBI (just four short with 63) while producing another excellent contact rate (0.93 do to only 35 strikeouts on the year). This is likely as good as it gets at this point, but that isn’t all that bad is it?

Miguel Tejada: A huge question mark this coming offseason. Is Tejada the man who hit .329 with a .830 OPS in the first half of the aging/slowing veteran who has hit just .255 with a .645 OPS since the All-Star break? Might end up at third base wherever he signs.

Adrian Beltre: Wear a cup Adrian. That’s all I have to say.

Chone Figgins: Not the prototypical corner infielder since he has an almost total lack of pop. Still, don’t know of many teams that would turn away a .300 hitting, 40 steal, 100 run option at the top of their lineup.

Melvin Mora: Trying to prove that he still has some game left in that soon to be 38 year old body of his. After a pathetic first half (.259/.326/.335) he has been pretty solid the past two weeks (.405-3-7 in 11 games).

Jason Bay: The Sox won’t let him go, not after another big-time offensive season (.261-31-98-87-12 in just 456 ABs).

Johnny Damon: Will he remain with the Yankees? Since he scores 90 runs every year and will be coming off the best power season of his career he will likely get one more major dollar deal. Still, he is likely best suited for DH at this stage of his career. My brother’s 16 month old daughter almost throws as well.

Matt Holliday: A Scott Boras client, Holliday has hit like Stan Musial since joining the Birds (.378-11-39-31 with a 1.125 OPS in 156 ABs). Don’t know the last time you checked, but in case you hadn’t heard, Boras is the biggest pain in the a – - in the universe, that is if you are a team trying to sign a player. Boras/Holliday won’t be giving the Red Birds a discount, and Boras will get his man the money he “deserves” on the market. Still, the Cardinals simply can’t let him go can they?

Jermaine Dye: Five straight years of at least 25 homers and 75 RBI (once he knocks in three more runs this year), Dye is as consistent a run producing right fielder as there is in the game. He will be 36 in June but he should still have a few productive years left despite his profound struggles of late (.184 in his last 185 ABs).

Vlad Guerrero: Injured to start the year Vlad has been, well Vlad, hitting .298 with a .904 OPS since the All-Star break. He may be limited to DH duties the rest of his career but the man can still hit .300 with 25 home runs if healthy.

Aubrey Huff: Hasn’t lived up to last season’s huge effort (.304-32-108-96) and has looked lost at the plate of late (he has hit just .215 over his last 44 games and .210 since the start of August). He’ll be hard pressed to sign a deal that exceeds a couple of years at anything remotely approaching his current level of pay ($8 million).

By Ray Flowers

For Your Consideration

Monday. The euphoria of the trade deadline bonanza has passed, and now we are back to the “real world” of day-to-day baseball. Today I thought I would touch on a few of the more interesting storylines currently floating around the baseball universe including the odd tale of a seemingly delusion third baseman in Baltimore.

Melvin Mora said this over the weekend if you missed it. “I think I deserve more respect than what I’m getting here,” Mora said. “Don’t give me excuses that I can’t beat Smoltz or I can’t beat Beckett or I can’t beat Lester. I’ve been here nine years. All these guys in the East know me. I’ve made the All-Star team. I deserve respect.” We agree with you Mr. Mora, and if someone is spitting in your face or disparaging your family, then by all means speak up. However, what are we talking about here? Mr. Mora, you are hitting .256 with three home runs and 27 RBI in 285 ABs. How does that compare to the average major league third baseman? Check it:

.269-7-29.

Yes Mr. Mora, you haven’t even been a league average third basemen, so if you feel disrespected, well, how about you start hitting like a major league regular or just shut your pie hole.

Who are they trying to kid? Roy Oswalt had his start pushed back because of a back issue. Now his Saturday start is likely also to be missed as he continues to suffer some pain in the area. Just put him on the DL and let him take the two weeks guys, seems like that’s the way this is going to go so instead of frustrating everyone. Just pull the trigger on the DL stint.

There has been some talk of Albert Pujols and a run at the Triple Crown. Pujols has a two home run lead over Mark Reynolds for the home run lead (34 to 32) in the National League and he is one RBI behind Prince Fielder for the NL RBI lead with 92. However, after hitting just .289 in 97 July at-bats Pujols is down to .314, the eighth best mark in the NL. Given that he has never hit below .314 in a season, plus the addition of Matt Holliday to help him out in the middle of the Cards lineup, Pujols would appear to have a great shot to push that average much closer to .333 by the end of the year (his career average). As mentioned he also is right there in homers and RBI, but in this day and age of offense and specialization, it’s a tall order to expect any man to be able to lead the league in average, home runs and RBI, but if any man can, it’s got to be Pujols. Still, the last man to win the mythical award in the NL was another Cardinal, Joe Medwick, who in 1937, that’s right before the Second World War, hit .374 with 31 home runs and 154 RBI. The last player in the AL? How about Carl Yastrzemski in 1967 when Yaz produced a line of .326-44-121 for the Red Sox.

Brandon Webb is done for 2009 and may not be ready for 2010 after undergoing a “debridement” procedure on his shoulder. What the hell is a debridement? It’s a medical procedure that removes non-healthy tissue and any foreign materials. What that basically means is that they went in and cleaned up his shoulder without needing to do anything invasive. It’s not clear if his labrum or rotator cuff was the central focus of the surgery, but what is clear is that I find it almost impossible to believe that the club will pick up his $8.5 million option for next season. More than likely, the D’backs will give Webb his $1.5 million buyout and see if they can sign him to an incentive laden deal. Given the reluctance of the team to do just that prior to the start of the season because of concerns with his health, it’s certainly not at all out of the realm of possibility that Webb has tossed his last game for the club.

By Ray Flowers

Tuesday Digest

Did you catch the Nick Swisher pitching outing on Monday? It was a classic. Besides working a scoreless inning in the Yankees debacle (they lost 15-5), he was the only one of the five Yankees who threw a pitch and didn’t allow a run, Swisher also went deep at the plate. As a result, he currently leads the Yankees in batting average (.450), home runs (three), RBI (10) and ERA (0.00). Asked about his outing on the mound in which he threw “fastballs” ranging from 71-80 mph, Swisher had this to say. “I felt that I wanted to go out there and get three outs. I had fun with it. I mean, when am I ever going to have the chance to do that again? Probably never.” The best part of the whole deal? After striking out Gabe Kapler, Swisher asked to keep the ball. Whatever you think of the guy, there isn’t a “looser” guy in the game. Gotta love that attitude.

At the other end of the spectrum as far as personality goes is Lastings Milledge. I was going to do a big expose on the meat head, but Ted Carlson beat me to it with Gut Punch . I’m not giving up on Milledge yet, and it might be a great time to try and get him on the cheap from his undoubtedly frustrated current owner.

Melvin Mora appears likely to be headed to the DL due to continued issues with his hamstring. If that is the case, Ty Wigginton will become the immediate third baseman and must be owned in all fantasy formats. Ty has averaged 23 home runs the past three seasons despite only picking up an average of 459 AB a season, and only needs a spot in the everyday lineup to be a valuable fantasy option. Don’t forget he is also eligible at third base and the outfield giving him even more value. As for Mora, he shouldn’t be out long-term, but if Wigginton impresses, Mora may not so easily recapture his daily spot in the lineup. Ah who am I kidding, when he is healthy he will be out there.

The White Sox are down to Brian Anderson in centerfield now that DeWayne Wise has been placed on the DL due to the shoulder injury he suffered which will keep him out 6-8 weeks. Think they wished they had held on to Nick Swisher now? As for Anderson, well, the Sox clearly have to upgrade the position if they are serious about contending in 2009, and by that we don’t mean calling up Jerry Owens, which they did, or signing Scott Podsednik, which they did. In 603 career ABs, Anderson has gone deep 18 times with 62 RBI while he has also stolen 12 bags. While that sounds like decent production for a centerfielder, the rest of his line is embarrassing for a guy who thinks he deserves a shot at a full season of at-bats: .221/.278/.376. Speaking of Podsednik, he should be worth a look in AL-only leagues as he is clearly a better option than Owens with his ability to get on base (.337 to .321) and steals bags (40 as recently as 2006 for the White Sox).

Milton Bradley already on the shelf for 3-5. What a shock.

Cody Ross is just 2-for-22 this season (.091). He has struck out five times without a walk, a terribly slow start for a guy who hit 22 bombs with 73 RBI last season in 461 AB. Look for him to rebound, though we probably saw the upside he has to offer last year.

Rickie Weeks is a man. He took an Edinson Volquez up and in fastball off his chin and said he is fine. Week’s wasn’t in the lineup on Tuesday, the team chose to give him a day off after he has played every game so far, but he should be back for the team’s next game. He is off to a solid start hitting .276/.364/.448 with four RBI, seven runs and a steal in seven games.