(1) Matt Kemp to DL.
(2) Christian Friedrich dominating.
(3) Troy Tulowitzki hurt.
(4) Nationals, Yankees, Mets having 9th inning issues.
(5) Dan Haren – buy low candidate?
(6) Jeff Neimann out with a broken leg.
By Ray Flowers
Lefty hurler Chris Capuano agreed to a 2-year, $10 million contract to pitch for the Dodgers (as an aside, does his signing mean that Hiroki Kuroda’s career as a Dodger is over?). Coming off a solid season, is the oft injured pitcher someone you should count on like the Dodgers are?
The first thing that has to be mentioned with Capuano is that injuries have played a huge part in defining his career. A 2-time Tommy John Surgery recipient (2002 and 2008), here is a look at his big league innings pitched totals for his career:
33, 88.1, 219, 221.1, 150, zero, zero, 66, 186
To say that there is risk in giving him a 2-year deal is an understatement. The lack of innings pitched consistency is also a major reason while it’s tough to project him to make another 30-starts in 2012. I can’t overstate this fact, so let me hit on it again. Health is a major issue with Capuano. If you roster him make sure that you’ve built in a lot of other mound options because there is a good chance that he will miss at least some time.
Capuano has four seasons in his career of at least 150-innings pitched, and in those four seasons the following points are accurate. Capuano is a solid strikeout arm who hasn’t fallen below a 7.08 K/9 mark. He’s also coming off his best K/9 mark of 8.13. Capuano grades out fairly well in the walk category with a BB/9 of under 3.25 in each of his last three healthy seasons. The result is that his K/BB in two of the last four years has been in the 3′s. The other two years though that mark has been 1.93 and 2.44. While those marks are solid, let’s look at his career rates in a myriad of categories.
Capuano owns a 4.39 ERA. The league average during his career is 4.24.
Capuano allows 12.63 batters per nine innings. The league average is 12.71.
Capuano allows 9.26 hits per nine. The league average is 9.04.
Capuano owns a 1.02 GB/FB ratio. The league average is about 1.10.
Capuano owns a career BABIP of .300. We all know that .290-300 is the big league average.
Capuano has a HR/9 ratio of 1.28. The big league average is about 1.00.
Capuano owns a 72.8 percent left on base rate. The big league average is about 70.
Taking a look at all the data, here are my conclusions.
(1) While I don’t love the idea of giving Capuano a 2-year deal, it’s not excessive. Neither is the dollar figure attached so I really can’t fault the Dodgers for this signing.
(2) Capuano is a solid depth addition to a staff if he can stay healthy. Can he stay healthy is the real question though, and given his track record there should be a healthy does of trepidation here.
(3) If you look at Capuano’s career numbers you pretty much get, in nearly every category, a league average hurler. Again, that makes him a decent add for the Dodgers, but should it excite you in the fantasy game?
(4) What would I do with Capuano in 2012? I’d pass if the bidding got too high, and I wouldn’t draft him in a mixed league to be anything other than a 5th starter type.
Even with last years success, Capuano didn’t really do anything outstanding, his performance dipped a bit in the second half (5.08 ERA), and he wasn’t at all effective on the road (5.42 ERA, 1.51 WHIP). Pitching in Dodger Stadium certainly isn’t going to hurt his outlook, nor will getting chances to pitch in Petco Park and AT&T Park against less than stellar offenses, so it’s not like we’re looking at a pitcher who is likely to collapse. Capuano is a nice rotation filler, but you’re making a mistake if you think he is anything more than that.
By Ray Flowers
This we know about Daniel Murphy – he can hit. He may have a hard time staying healthy, and the Mets may not exactly know where he should play defensively, but Murphy is going to hit. Period. Here’s a rundown of what he brings to the field.
Murphy has hit .292 during his big league career of 1,030 at-bats. During a minor league career that spans 1,002 at-bats he has hit .295. As I said, Murphy can hit. Will he bat .320 as he did last season for the Mets in 391 at-bats? Probably not. While it’s possible that he could post a .345 BABIP year after year (his 2011 mark), that’s a very high total, even if his 22 percent line drive rate does support such a number. I’d look more closely at his career .319 BABIP as a better indicator of what to expect. Murphy could use a bit more patience at the plate, his 0.58 BB/K is about a tenth better than the big league average, but he does a very good job at making contact which situates him as an ideal second place hitter.
That last sentence speaks to why I’m not more excited about Murphy heading into 2012. Though he will hit as I’ve stated, the guy has little power. After hitting 28 homers during his minor league career he’s popped only 20 long balls for the Mets. We’re basically looking at a guy who will hit .300 with 10-15 homers. Not that there is anything wrong with that mind you, but he dimply doesn’t lift the ball enough (47 percent ground ball rate last season) or drive it when it does go airborne (6.3 percent HR/F ratio for his career). Again that’s fine, as long as Murphy sticks to lashing liners into the alleys. He knows his game, and as long as he maintains that understanding of his swing, he should be in good shape.
As for the speed aspect of things, that’s not something you should count on with Murphy After 313 big league games he has all of nine steals, and though he stole more bases in the minors (21 in 270 games), we’re not exactly talking about a guy who is going to do anything other than steal a base or two a month.
Given that profile, Murphy would seem to own a bat that would look awfully good if it belong to a middle infielder. Murphy has a strong bat for the second base position, and that is indeed the position that he hopes to start at in 2011. But it’s not the only position that he qualifies at in the fantasy game, and that flexibility will help to make him a wondrous play in league specific set ups. Here are his games played totals, per position, from 2011: first base (52), third base (28), second base (24), and he’s also played the outfield before as well though he didn’t in 2011. You really only want him to be your second baseman, but it’s certainly nice to have the flexibility to move him around your lineup when/if injuries strike.
Murphy is coming back off an MCL tear, but everyone around the Mets feels confident that he will be at 100 percent by opening day. The bigger question for a while was whether or not the Mets were going to move Murphy as many teams came a calling this offseason to see if Murphy would be available. Turns out the Mets plan on having Murphy start at second base for them this season. If Murphy can stay healthy long enough to appear in 140 games he could very easily post a season, minus the steals, that would make Howie Kendrick proud. Don’t overlook Murphy on draft day because of his lack of pop. In fact, use it to your advantage to grab a guy in the middle rounds would could really add something to your fantasy squad.
By Ray Flowers
Rumors are flying at the Winter Meetings, but there are a few deals that have actually been completed.
Huston Street was believed to have been dealt to the Padres as the club from southern California was thought to have done a great job covering up for the loss of Heath Bell to the Marlins. However, reports are now circulating that not only is the deal not complete but the Rockies are still in active negotiations with at least one other team about Street. We’ll wait an see how this plays out, but it’s a certainty that Street will be dealt as the Rockies feel confident that Rafael Betancourt can handle the 9th inning.
*UPDATE: The deal sending Street to the Padres was finally ratified. Street will serve as the closer for the Padres in 2012.
Erik Bedard is an impressive hurler when he is capable of dragging his weary bones onto the field. Last season he may have gone 5-9 but he also posted a 3.62 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and an 8.70 K/9 mark proving how effective he could be. However, the downside is that he only made 24 starts covering 129.1 innings (his biggest innings pitched mark in four seasons). The Pirates have decided to look past the litany of injuries to sign Bedard to relatively painless 1-year deal for $4.5 million. It’s a nice signing if he can stay healthy.
Frank Francisco has agreed to a 2-year deal with the Mets with reports suggesting he will be paid about $12 million. The Mets also signed Jon Rauch to help to bolster their bullpen, but the arm to target in the fantasy game is Francisco. The projected closer in 2012, Francisco owns an electric arm but he’s struggled to stay healthy and consistent when on the mound. Still, the guy has 368 Ks in 334 career innings, and the past three years he’s brought his walk total down to the major league average (3.01 per nine). He’s got a chance to be a solid closer for the Metropolitans.
Nate McLouth signed a 1-year deal with the Pirates for a reported $1.75 million. McLouth had his greatest success as a Pirate before a couple of somewhat troubled seasons in Atlanta where his production was terrible and he struggled to stay healthy. Still just 30 years old, McLouth was a fantasy standout just a few seasons ago as he averaged 23 homers, 99 runs scored, 82 RBI and 21 steals over the 2008-09 campaigns.
The Giants and Mets made a deal that saw them exchange outfielders that have followed similar paths. The deal is this: the Giants receive Angel Pagan while the Mets pick up Andres Torres and Ramon Ramirez. The reliever, Ramirez, is a solid NL-only arm in the fantasy game, but this deal is all about the outfielders. In 2010 both were fantasy all-stars, but both slumped in 2011. Torres has more power than Pagan, but his OPS dropped to .643 last season as he looked lost for long stretches of time. Pagan, who hit .290 and stole 37 bags in 2010, fell to .262 with 32 steals last season. Given the dearth of athleticism in the Giants’ lockeroom Pagan figures to hit at the top of the order for the G-Men. For the Giants sake, I certainly hope they don’t think that adding Pagan and Melky Cabrera gives them enough offense to compliment their wonderful pitching.
Still Twisting
Albert Pujols is apparently leaning toward returning to St. Louis as reports suggest that the Cards and Marlins both offered him very similar contracts.
Prince Fielder is the bat that teams will focus on adding when the Pujols situation is resolved. I’ve been hearing that the Blue Jays, Mariners and Marlins (if they lose out on Pujols) might be the two most aggressive teams to add the portly slugger.
Andrew Bailey and Gio Gonzalez are said to be available, but teams will have to “overpay” the Athletics to add their services. At the moment, it looks like the market for Gonzalez is more active.
Aramis Ramirez to the Brewers is the hot rumor right now. It makes a lot of sense given that Prince Fielder will not be back and that the Brew Crew do not want to have to count on Casey McGehee rebounding in 2012.
By Ray Flowers
With rumors flying fast and furious, I’ll do my best to be brief here, lest my reports be out of date by the time you read them. By the way, if you want to be kept up to date with minute by minute reports of everything going on at the Winter Meetings, make sure you follow my work on the Baseball Guys’ Twitter page where I try to mention everything that comes across the rumor mill.
Carlos Beltran – There is an absurd rumor out there that the Red Sox have had internal talks about making a run at adding the Mets’ outfielder. Who is on crack in the Red Sox front office? It remains to be seen if Beltran will ever be able to return to his former glory days because of that knee, and unless the Mets are willing to eat more than half of the $18.5 million dollars he is owed for 2011 to move him, there is no way in hell Beltran is going anywhere.
Zack Greinke – He wants out so badly he told the team they could trade him to anyone. I understand, I wouldn’t want to pitch for the Royals either, but really, isn’t this just another example of why the Royals suck? I mean, how do you justify to your fans moving your best player? Maybe the Royals can share notes with the Padres who just pulled off the same trick with Adrian Gonzalez. Speaking of Gonzalez (shoulder surgery), reports that he wouldn’t swing a bat until March appear to be accurate. Doesn’t that make you a wee bit nervous Red Sox fans?
Paul Konerko – He wants $15 million a year, the White Sox only want to pay him something like $12-13 a year. The Sox r need money to strengthen their pen since they lost J.J Putz and Bobby Jenks, but I can’t see how there wont be some meeting of the minds here since Konerko has spent the last 12 seasons with the club.
Cliff Lee – It still seems like the Rangers and Yankees are in the lead for his services. I gotta tell ya though, rumors persist that the Nationals are in the mix even after lavishing a massive contract on Jayson Werth (you can view my thoughts on that deal at Around the Horn: Hot Stove, December 6). I don’t see how the Nats could bring Lee into the fold given their cash outlay to Werth, but here’s to hoping they can find the dough to make it interesting.
Brandon Webb – I know everyone wanta to look like a genius if they can sign him on the cheap with an incentive laden deal and then watch him return to All-Star form, but the guy has thrown only four innings in two seasons because of a wonky shoulder. It must be music to the ears of other hurlers like Brandon McCarthy who is also drawing interest after throwing the ball well in the Venezuelan Winter League. The A’s seem to be at the top of the list for McCarthy, while virtually every NL team appears to be chasing Webb.
Ty Wigginton – Signed a 2-year deal for $7.5 million to join the Rockies. Clearly the club isn’t sold on Todd Helton ever being able to play a full slate of games again because of his back woes. They may have overpaid slightly, but Wigginton is a versatile player whose power swing will play well in Coors.
Why is No One Paying Attention?
Finally, why in the world aren’t more people getting excited about the deal that sent Shaun Marcum to the Brewers? The AL East was about the worst division in baseball to pitch in, and the past two years Marcum has been on the hill he has gone 22-15 with a 3.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 3.10 K/BB ratio. Last time I checked, and it was about 13 seconds ago, there were only eight pitchers in baseball in 2011 who had an ERA below 3.50, a WHIP under 1.15 and a K/BB ratio of at least 3.10. Marcum should continue to be damn effective as the number two starter behind Yovani Gallardo in Milwaukee.
By Ray Flowers
Taking a look back at 2010 and trying to project what will happen in 2011 is what we do at Fanball. To that end, Ted Carlson has been sending out assignments for the staff to rank our top options at each position for the 2011 season. Today, I’ll defend my rankings for the Top-10 Shortstops for 2011 an explain why I ranked Jimmy Rollins ahead of Jose Reyes.
For the other reviews in this series, click on the following links.
Top-20 SPs: Latos and Jimenez?.
ROLLINS vs. REYES
I was the only voter on staff who listed Rollins ahead of Reyes as the Mets’ shortstop was listed third on everyone else’s ballot (I had Reyes 4th). Moreover, Rollins fell to as low as 7th in the staff voting. Here is my defense of my selection of Rollins over Reyes.
(1) Both players were injured in 2010 limiting their production (Reyes appeared in 133 games, Rollins 88). While injuries have bogged down Reyes the last two years – he appeared in only 36 games in 2009 – Rollins had appeared in at least 137 games in each of the previous nine seasons, an in fact he had appeared in at least 154 games in eight of those nine seasons. He clearly has a durability advantage over Reyes.
(2) Not only am I concerned about Reyes’ ability to stay on the field, I’m really concerned about his ability to be an elite base stealer because of his physical maladies. From 2005-08 Reyes never stole fewer than 56 bags, but over his last 169 games he has swiped a mere 41 bases. There is no disputing that he has more upside in the steal category than Rollins, but there is a massive difference in fantasy value if you are stealing 60 bases or 40. As for Rollins, he swiped 17 bases in half a season which put him on pace for what would have been a 7th straight season of at least 30 thefts.
(3) Since 2005, Reyes’ first full season in the bigs, he has scored 554 runs, the 17th most run in the game. In that time he also appeared in 802 games. As for Rollins, he appeared in 55 more games but scored 51 more runs scored for a total of 605, the 8th best mark in the game.
(4) Power – this is where Reyes takes a back seat to Rollins. Reyes has never hit more than 19 homers in a season, and since 2005 he has averaged 13 homers a year (if we remove his 36 games ’09 campaign). Rollins has hit 25 or more homers twice in his career, and since 2005 he has averaged 20 homers a year (if we remove his 88 game effort in 2010). That’s a pretty substabtial advantage for Rollins, about 35 percent worth.
(5) Neither man is a wonder when it comes to getting on base. In fact, a strong arguement could be put forward that neither man should actually be a leadoff hitter because, despite their speed, neither gets on base very well – Reyes owns a career OBP of .335 while Rollins is slightly lower at .328. For some perspective, the NL average since 2000, the first year of Rollins career, is .332. Face it, both of these men have ample skills, but getting on base isn’t one of them. To state it another way, unless they play everyday, and hit at the top their club’s batting order, their runs scored totals could lag because of their inability to get on base.
Let’s boil this down to 162 game efforts for each man. Here are their career marks.
Reyes: .286-13-66-111-58
Rollins: .272-17-72-108-37
Reyes has the advantage if the he can return to his previous levels of thievery, but I’m just not sure he will be able to in 2011.
By Ray Flowers
(1) Stephen Strasburg scratched from start.
(2) Dan Haren (forearm) checks out OK.
(3) Huston Street injured in BP – scary situation.
(4) Adam Dunn and Nationals at standstill in contract talks?
(5) Gil Meche has shoulder surgery, done for year.
(6) Jason Bay suffering from concussion.
(7) Troy Tulowitzki returns to action.
(8) Nate McLouth sent to minors.
By Ray Flowers
(1) Troy Tulowitzki to miss 6-8 with broken wrist. Carlos Gonzalez also out on Friday.
(2) Jake Peavy has fluid, will still pitch on Saturday.
(3) Rich Harden has shot to accelerate healing process.
(4) Derek Holland tweaks knee while doing rehab work for shoulder.
(5) Mark Reynolds out of lineup, injured and struggling (13 Ks in 15 ABs).
(6) Alex Rodriguez back at third, Jorge Posada should be able to catch in interleague play
(7) Returning on Friday from injury- Jason Bay, Orlando Hudson.
By Ray Flowers
(1) Carlos Zambrano tosses 73 pitches in simulated game. Hopes to return to rotation next week.
(2) Erik Bedard suffered a setback this weekend. Shocking.
(3) Homer Bailey, John Maine placed on the DL with shoulder inflammation.
(4) Mat Latos 0.93 ERA, 0.55 WHIP in his last four starts.
(5) Alfredo Simon hurts hamstring. Orioles may not have to turn to Cla Meredith and Will Ohman in 9th.
(6) Gordon Beckham to remain in the bigs.
(7) Mike Cameron will return to the Red Sox on Tuesday.
(8) With Clint Barmes struggling to hit, Rockies are interested in bring back Kaz Matsui.
By Ray Flowers
The Rockies made a stupid decision, more star players have ended up on the DL, the Orioles bullpen continues to be a mess and Roy Oswalt has a story that will make you love him.
I don’t get it. The Rockies gave Chris Iannetta a 3-year deal worth $8.3 million. The club then brought in Miguel Olivo in on a 1-year, $2.5 million deal to serve as his the backup. Three weeks into the season, the situation has been reversed. In fact, it’s worse than that as Iannetta has actually been sent down to Triple-A. Does this make any sense? I know that Iannetta is hitting .133 with 11 Ks in 30 at-bats, Olivo is hot as he is hitting .311 with five bombs, but how can the team possibly send out their “starting” catcher after 30 at-bats? Just what in the heck is Chris going to prove at Triple-A? After all, this is a man who has 293 games of big league experience. I know it’s not the best way to compare players, but here is what each man would do based on a 162 game season.
Iannetta: .239-23-86-70 with a .357 OBP and a .799 OPS
Olivo: .244-21-72-63 with a .279 OBP and a .707 OPS
Clearly Iannetta is the more complete hitter, and three weeks doesn’t change that at all. I preach patience all the time in the fantasy game. Clearly, I have to start preaching the same thing to real world teams as the Rockies pulled the classic, knee jerk move of making a move that they will regret when the summer hits.
Jason Bay hit his first homer of the year on Tuesday ending a drought that had reached 108 at-bats dating back to last year. Look for him to relax and possibly take off shortly.
Vladimir Guerrero is playing right field on Tuesday as the Rangers were forced to put Nelson Cruz on the DL with a hamstring issue. I don’t think that is a plan the club should follow. Leave Vlad at DH where he has been ripping it up to the tune of a .371 average, and put David Murphy in the field. Not only does this make the most sense because of the health concerns with Vlad, it also would help my Jed Wars team where I have Murphy as one of my outfielders. Speaking of Jed Wars, here is a link to one of the videos I did for the league. It explains my love of fantasy baseball in The Illustrated Ray Flowers. Do you love my art or what? I know, Picasso has nothing on me.
The Orioles will no longer simply give the ball to Jim Johnson in the ninth Inning. “Whoever can get outs is going to get a chance,” manager Jim Trembley said. “I don’t think there are any roles. There is no closer right now for me.” Seems like Mike Gonzalez will have a good shot at reclaiming the role once he returns. Too bad we have no idea when that might be (a report suggested that he won’t been cleared to throw until Monday).
If you didn’t love Roy Oswalt already, these two stories should clinch it. (1) Oswalt’s parents live in the same town, in the same house, that they have since Roy was a child. Oswalt bought a home that is about ½ a mile from his parents house. The family owns a restaurant there. Oh, and Roy married a gal who is from the same town. Gotta love that. (2) Oswalt’s career was saved by, and I’m not making this up, an electric shock. In 1999 his shoulder was jacked up (it took six Advil for him just to get to sleep). How did he get past it? No, not surgery, but a spark plug. While working on his truck a bolt of electricity ran through his body and fixed his shoulder. If you don’t love all that, I don’t know what to tell you.
Ryan Zimmerman (hamstring) continues to be out of the starting lineup. I’m not ready to call this a Red Sox-like situation with how they handled Jacoby Ellsbury, but if all Z. can do is pinch hit, why not just put him on the DL to make sure both his hamstrings are healthy? He hasn’t played a full game since April 21st.
By Ray Flowers
The FSWA winner of the Best Baseball Series of 2011, BaseballGuys.com is the only source you will need for your fantasy baseball knowledge. OK, you might need other sources, but BaseballGuys.com should be on your daily list of must reads for the insights an analysis it provides on the world of baseball.
The co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87: M-F at 5-8 PM EDT), Ray has spent years squirreled away studying the inner workings of the fantasy game to the detriment of his personal life. Specializing in baseball, football and hockey, some consider him an expert in all three. Ray's work can also be found as feature writer for: Fantasy Alarm, Rotoinfo, Rotowire and Sports Illustrated.
You can contact Ray through e-mail at fantasyfandom@yahoo(dot)com or on Twitter.
