The Oracle Joins the Fantasy Beat

'Pterodactyl' photo (c) 2008, Quinn Dombrowski - license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/
The man, myth and legend Ray Flowers joins Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray on “The Fantasy Beat” to give his take on the young 2013 fantasy baseball season. The guys talked about hitters and pitchers who have garnered a lot of attention over the last few weeks.

Brandon Crawford, Josh Rutledge, Michael Cuddyer, Paul Maholm, Ross Detwiler, Bartolo Colon, John Buck, Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Ruggiano

LISTEN TO THE AUDIO.

FanDuel Contest: $3000 Friday Tournament

'Las Vegas' photo (c) 2011, Moyan Brenn - license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

Every Friday at BaseballGuys.com, I relay to you how you can sign up for a daily fantasy baseball game courtesy of FanDuel.com. Today is no different. I’ll spend a bit of time detailing how you can win some cash, and then I’ll give away all my secrets by letting you know who should, or shouldn’t, be in your lineup. Oh, and finally, I’m also going to be in the league, so you will get a shot to take down the obnoxious Ray Flowers.

* NOTE: This information about who to play on Friday is clearly something those of you in standard roto leagues should be looking at as well. Let’s just say guys like Prince Fielder and Dustin Pedroia may not be guys you want in your lineup Friday.

$3000 Friday Fantasy Baseball Tournament

You got $10 laying around? Do you want to spend it on a hot dog and beer? Sure you could do that, but in 15 minutes it would be gone. Well, until the hot dog starts repeating on you in about an hour an a half that is. Why not take that $10 and try to win part of the $3000 cash prize given away by FanDuel.com? Here’s what you do.

Sign up using this link.

Select your salary cap roster by 7 PM EDT, Friday.

Watch the games tonight. Pick up your cash (there are 37 spots that pay out… and even the 37th finisher doubles their initial investment).

So sign up, enjoy the night of games, and then win some cash. Maybe you’ll be able to buy a hot dog and a case of beer for your next Friday night.

Who should you have in your lineup? Never say that The Oracle isn’t a nice guy. In the video below I will discuss some of the matchups and some names that you might consider adding to your lineup for your chance to become a very rich person courtesy of FanDuel.com.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August15, 2012

(1) Lucas Harrell on terrific run for slumping Astros. Has anyone noticed? Check out his ownership rate over at Fleaflicker. Let’s jsut say it’s low.

(2) Nick Swisher performing like, Nick Swisher.

(3) Hiroki Kuroda getting it done for Yankees, big time.

(4) Josh Johnson sharp as ever of late.

(5) Troy Tulowitzki progressing.

(6) Michael Cuddyer (oblique) could return this week.

(7) Michael Young will continue to start over Mike Olt.

(8) Sample size and splits.

 

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

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Ever wanted the chance to play in a High Stakes Daily Fantasy Baseball Contest vs one of the best Experts in the industry?

Well, here is your chance to play against me, Ray Flowers, Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Channel Radio Host, owner of BaseballGuys.com, and 2011 FSWA Award Winner.

Jump into a private $5 “50/50” 20 man contest for a chance to play vs. Ray Flowers from Baseball Guys in a FREE 1 on 1 Heads Up Daily Fantasy Baseball contest for $50!!!

In a special contest with Daily Joust – Ray Flowers is putting it all on the line in a Heads Up Challenge.  This contest is two-fold.

Enter the $5 20 man 50/50 Friday night  ENTER HERE.
Finish in the top 10 of the contest and win $9

Finish in 1st place and move on to play Ray the following Friday for $50 in COLD HARD CASH!!  Plus the bragging rights of beating Ray!!!

So pass on that $5 “Footlong” Friday night and jump into this contest on DailyJoust, you can buy plenty of sandwiches later with your winnings!

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Michael Cuddyer vs. Cliff Lee: The two have faced each other 33 times with Cuddyer hitting .303 with three homers and eight RBIs. Marco Scutaro has also hit .321 in 28 at-bats against Lee.

Johnny Damon vs. Ricky Romero: If there was ever a lock to get a hit, or two, it’s Damon in this matchup (over at Fleaflicker Damon is barely owned). The duo has faced off 29 times and here’s the damage inflicted by Damon – a .522 avearge, four homers, eight RBIs a .633 OBP an a 1.807 OPS. Wowzah’s.

Jhonny Peralta vs. Jason Hammel: In 12 at-bats Peralta is hitting .417 with a homer and seven RBIs. Peralta also hit the break with four hits in his last two games while Hammel has a 6.20 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in six career games against the Tigers.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Tim Hudson vs. Mets: The Mets have 149 at-bats against Hudson, those currently on the roster that is, and they have gone deep just two times while hitting .235 with a .637 OPS. Seems like Hudson has a pretty good shot at holding the Metropolitans down.

Clayton Kershaw vs. Padres: Any time you see Kershaw on the hill you should be pumped. When that matchup has him taking on the Padres, you should be super pumped. When you notice that current Padres are hitting .213 with a .542 OPS, and not a single homer in 141 at-bats, it’s time to start doing cartwheels (though be careful not to injure yourself cause I know I would if I attempted that move).

Adam Wainwright vs. Reds: In his career current Reds batter are hitting .187 with a .555 OPS over 107 at-bats against Waino. Take out that one rough outing against the Pirates and Wainwright has allowed a total of four earned runs in his last three starts with at least seven Ks each outing.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Billy Butler vs. Jake Peavy: Maybe those Royals fans that felt slighted All-Star weekend will have something to cheer for in this matchup as Butler has hit .389 with a 1.365 OPS against Peavy in 18 career at-bats.

Torii Hunter vs. Freddy Garcia: The two have faced each other in 48 official at-bats with Hunter emerging with 19 hits leading to a .396 batting average. Hunter has also gone deep four times while knocking in eight runs.

Casey Kotchman vs. Aaron Laffey: OK, I take my Damon prediction. This might be the most bonkers matchup ever. E-V-E-R. In 10 at-bats Kotchman has nine hits against Laffey. That is all.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Gio Gonzalez vs. Marlins: Current Marlins batters have 36 at-bats against Gio. They have struck out 12 times and produced… one hit (Emilio Bonifacio). Coming off a first half that saw him post a 2.92 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, not to mention 118 Ks in 101.2 innings, Gio is a must start in this matchup.

Kyle Lohse vs. Reds: In the last matchup between these two foes Lohse worked seven scoreless innings. In each of his last four starts he has worked at least seven innings while allowing a total of seven runs. That’s sounding like a pretty good matchup to me.

Max Scherzer vs. Orioles: On the year Scherzer has a 4.72 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Terrible numbers for a guy with his arm. I try to focus more on the 121 Ks in 97.1 innings and the nearly four to one K/BB marks. I also like the fact that he’s allowed a total of six runs over his last four starts as he’s finally finding his rhythm on the hill.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 13: Did We Learn Anything?

'Pedro Alvarez' photo (c) 2012, Keith Allison - license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/ On Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late. Can you use this information to your benefit over at DailyJoust?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Pedro Alvarez (+12, $96,000 in DailyJoust Salary)
In his last four games he has gone deep twice and driven in nine runs, and for the month of June he drove the ball into the seats seven times while platting 20 runs. He’s still hitting a mere .231 on the season, and it just doesn’t appear like he is ever going to be able to be a positive producer in that category (even in June he hit just .262). Don’t worry about his leg issue. Apparently it was just cramps and he should be fine.

Clint Barmes (+11, $66K)
The guy has been a monumental failure this season, even in NL-only leagues. On the year Barmes has somehow used 225 at-bats to produce a mere .204/230/.307 line. Never really an All-Star caliber performer despite a couple of nice seasons, he was usually effective when in the lineup. Well, at least he is improving of late. After hitting .149 in April he batted .189 in May and pushed that mark to .247 in June when he had 11 RBI after knocking in just seven runners the first two months of the year.

Freddie Freeman ($19, $105K)
It seems like every week there is some new malady that he is being forced to overcome. Even with all his missed time he still has 10 homers and 47 RBI putting him on pace to better his totals from last year (21 and 76). He’s also produced at least one hit in each of his last six games as he’s knocked in six runs, scored six times, and seen his batting average climb from .247 to .266 in that time.

Yasmani Grandal (+14, $64K)
This switch hitter can sometimes get a little long with his hacks, but as we last week, when he lays into it the ball can fly (his first two big league homers came from each side of the dish). The weeks #1 pickup behind the dish, Grandal has a big enough bat that he could be able to largely keep Nick Hundley out of the mix the rest of the season (when you hit .166 over 193 at-bats like Hundley has, leading to a demotion to the minors, it may not be that hard to do).

Justin Ruggiano (+13, $91K)
Have you noticed that through 54 at-bats this season that Justin is blasting the ball to the tune of a .389 average, a .469 OBP and .704 SLG? Amazing is right. He’ll continue to be in the lineup on a daily basis until he slows down, Ozzie Guillen might have his issues but he’s no moron. Really just an NL-only option unless you’re desperate in a mixed league.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Yonder Alonso (-22, $60K)
Wait, wasn’t this guy supposed to be able to hit? Through 268 at-bats this season he has two homers and 18 RBI. Toss in 23 runs scored and two steals, and he has been one of the least productive full time performers in baseball. When you look over to the average column and find a .257 mark sitting there, thanks to a .218 mark in June, you’ll begin to realize just how disappointing his effort has been this year.

Zack Cozart (-21, $56K)
Every time this guys name is mentioned people get all excited. Why? Sure his 17 homer pace is nice for a shortstop, and if he scored 90 runs that would be great, but the guy just isn’t a good offensive performer. He’s hitting a sub par .245, and his .290 OBP is hideous. He’s only swiped two bases on the year, and despite the power he’s displayed he’s on pace for about 40 RBI. Don’t know why anyone get’s excited about that (at least over at Fleaflicker his owned percentage is pretty low).

Michael Cuddyer (-28, $70K)
Uh oh. Everyone’s darling in Colorado has hit the skids. He’s still on pace for 25 homers and 100 RBI, so the run production has been there, but he’s also seen his batting average dip to .256 and his OBP is .311 after a June he’d like to forget (.212/.257). Also a bit concerning is his 21 percent K-rate after that number has been under 18.5 percent each of the past five years and under 17 percent each of the past two years.

Chris Davis (-26, $60K)
After a horrific dry spell that saw him go eight games without a hit, Davis has rebounded a bit with four hits in his last three games. Even with the dip he’s hitting .271 with 13 homers, and those numbers, if doubled, would still be a solid season for a guy who may have fooled a few people as he was hitting .300 as recently as June 16th. He’s simply not a .300 hitter.

Kendrys Morales (-20, $60K)
Oh you dreaded hype machine. Everyone jumped on the bandwagon when Morales had a scorching week in spring training, everyone it seemed by me of course. Hey, the guy is on pace to hit about .280 with 17 homers, and those aren’t bad numbers for a guy who didn’t play a single game last year. Still, disappointments abounds with a a guy who is also on pace for a .750 OPS with 60 RBI.

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

'Cincinnati Reds third baseman Scott Rolen (27)' photo (c) 2011, Keith Allison - license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/
It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your drink on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com. DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Michael Cuddyer vs. Kevin Millwood: We all know that Millwood is nothing more than a place holder anyway. Put him in Coors Field and things could get ugly. Cuddyer has long enjoyed the matchup with the righty as he’s hit .429 with two homers in 28 at-bats. Jason Giambi (.421-3-5) and Todd Helton (.324-2-6) have also enjoyed considerable success in the matchup.

Albert Pujols vs. Jeff Suppan: The latest Padres scrap heap add, Suppan is 2-12 with a 1.69 ERA through three starts. He won’t keep that up much longer. He’s also in grave danger of being tattooed by Mr. Pujols who has suddenly has a 6-game hit streak including two homers and five RBI the last two games. Pujols is also 16-for-42, a .381 average, with a homer and six RBI against Suppan.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Edwin Jackson vs. Orioles: Jackson has pitched very well for the Nats this year with a 3.71 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 4.22 K/BB ratio in his first seven starts for the club. Friday he faces an Orioles club that he has long had success against. In nine career outings against the team from Baltimore he is 5-1 with a 3.61 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 40 Ks in 47.1 innings, numbers that don’t look at all out of place compared to his work this season.

Ted Lilly vs. Cardinals: In 2008-09 Lilly went 4-1 against the Cardinals and in his career against the Cardinals he’s also 7-3 with a 2.85 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over 14 starts. He’s also 5-0 this have allowed a single run in four of his six starts (the other two times out he’s allowed six runs leading to a 2.11 ERA for the year).

Carlos Zambrano vs. Indians: In seven starts this season only two times has Big Z allowed more than one earned run (he allowed four runs in six innings in his first start and three runs in six innings on April 27th). The result is a 1.88 ERA and 1.04 WHIP across his 48 innings. It’s hard to sit him against anyone right now.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Adam Dunn vs. Ryan Dempster: The Cubs ace is pitching very well to start the year (1.74 ERA, .097 WHIP) but Dunn is performing equally as well for the White Sox (12 HR, 30 RBI, .947 OPS in 39 games) . In 27 career plate appearances against Dempster Dunn has hit .294 while he’s walked 10 times leading to an otherworldly .556 OBP (he has two homers and four RBI as well).

Adrian Gonzalez vs. Joe Blanton: AGone hasn’t lived up to expectations this year but he’s set up for a matchup Saturday that should certainly be advantageous to him. In 16 at-bats against Blanton he has seven hits, two of which are big flies, and he’s knocked in four runs leading to a .438 average and 1.283 OPS.

Ty Wigginton vs. Jon Lester: These two have only squared off 20 times but Wigginton has produced eight hits (.400) including a homer. Add in the four walks Ty has also been able to accrue and the Phillies’ batter has a video game like .538 OBP in the matchup.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Christian Friedrich vs. Mariners: How is this for a way to start your big league career. Take on the Padres in San Diego. Then fly north up the California coast to take on the Giants in San Francisco. How about you them hop on a plan to fly home to take on the Mariners. Has a pitcher ever had a better set of three opponents to take on to start his big league career? Through 13 innings the lefty with the dominating curve ball has 17 Ks, two walks allowed an a 1.38 ERA.

Derek Holland vs. Astros: He’s made two starts against the Astros, and though his ERA is 4.15 his WHIP is impressive at 1.08, as is his BAA of .234. Plus, the Astros are far from being an offensive juggernaut, right? There’s also the fact that over his last 14.1 innings that Holland has allowed one earned run.

Yovani Gallardo vs. Twins: The Twins are in the bottom five in many offensive categories this year including runs scored which should certainly help Gallardo who has allowed just four runs while striking out 14 batters over his last 12 innings. Gallardo has also impressed in four starts against the Twins in his career with a 2.48 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 27 Ks in 29 innings.

CONTESTS

There is still time to take me on in a one day fantasy baseball game, today, Friday.

Click on the link to Take on Ray Flowers to learn how you can sign up for free to win $, and to get bragging rights by beating a baseball expert.

Get on it!

 

By Ray Flowers

The Fantasy Beat: Enjoying Multiple Positions

'Michael Cuddyer' photo (c) 2009, Keith Allison - license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/ The Fantasy Beat with Trevor Ray and Justin Fensterman talks about the players that fill several different positions for fantasy baseball. They discuss the benefits of having these players and some of the players with multiple position eligibility you should go after and stay away from.

Michael Young, Ryan Roberts, Emilio Bonifacio, Howie Kendrick, Michael Cuddyer, Michael Morse, Robert Andino

Listen to the Audio.

Tout Wars & The Big Apple

'The Big Apple!' photo (c) 2010, jenn - license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/ New York. The Big Apple. The center of the universe. Instead of orbiting around New York City from my home in California, I’m off to the middle of it all this weekend. Am I on a mystic quest to save a beautiful maiden or to fight the evil forces that are oppressing humanity? Of course not. I’m going to participate in one of the two biggest fantasy baseball leagues in the world – Tout Wars (the other being LABR which I was also fortunate enough to be invited to). Some thoughts on the upcoming weekend.

Tout Wars has three events: NL-only, AL-only and Mixed. I’ve been invited to participate in the 15 team mixed league (for a list of the of participants click on Tout Wars Mixed League). The 15 team auction is pretty “standard”: 5×5 scoring, 14 hitters, nine pitchers, $260 to fill out the starting lineup. One difference is that the games played limit isn’t the normal 20, it’s been dropped to 15 games this season. That opens up a few guys of note to new positional acceptance: Aubrey Huff (16 games in the outfield), Howie Kendrick (17 games at first base) and Michael Cuddyer (17 games at second base). Unfortunately, Michael Young appeared in just 14 games at second base last season or he’d be able to add that to his first and third base eligibility. This league also says that players positional eligibility, besides being lowered to the 15 game threshold from last season, is only five appearances at a position in season in ordered to be deemed eligible. That means a guy like Miguel Cabrera or Hanley Ramirez will likely be eligible to play third base by the second week of the season. As I always say, you have to know your league rules top take the best advantage of your situation.

Only in New York can you get a hotel room for $220 a night and people are saying that it was a huge bargain. Maybe I’ll be able to get beer and sandwich for lunch for $25. A guy can dream.

I keep hearing people say that third base is really thin. I can’t say I agree. Did you catch my piece titled Third Base, A Wasteland?

After doing a 13 team NL-only league in LABR, doing a 15 team mixed league sounds like a walk in the park. I still like the balanced approach versus Stars and Scrubs, but I’ll be a bit more aggressive this time around than I was in LABR.

Time is starting to run short, the season is quickly approaching, but the BaseballGuys’ Draft Guide could still help you out If you’re interested in bringing home a championship in 2012.

Trying to plan my arrival from the airport to the hotel, and then the hotel to the event. I think I have a better chance of that plan running off without a hitch than I do of drafting the best team in the history of fantasy baseball, but just barely.

Help me out here. I’m looking at ADP numbers over at MockDraftCentral an I just can’t understand why in the world, in a non-keeper league, that Mike Trout is being taken ahead of guys like Brennan Boesch, Delmon Young and Dexter Fowler. Maybe I missed the memo, but what’s going on here? Trout has been slowed all spring by the flu – reports say he lost 10 lbs to the malady – and the expectation is that he will open the year at Triple-A because of the glut of players the Angels have on their big league roster. Given the current setup, an of course it’s subject to change through a trade or injury, it looks like Trout will be lucky to get 450 at-bats this season with the Angels. I know the kid is one of the five best prospects in baseball and his future is luminous, but starting the year in the minors after posting a .220/.281/.390 line in 123 at-bats as a rookie with the big league club is enough to cause him to be taken ahead of Boesch, Young and Fowler? I must be out of my mind, but that makes no sense to me at all.

Which Ray’s Pizza should I visit to get a slice? Be forewarned, I’m a big fan of Chicago style deep dish. I’m off to New York. I’ll let you know how it went next week. Wish me luck.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Josh Willingham

'Oakland Athletics left fielder Josh Willingham (16)' photo (c) 2011, Keith Allison - license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/Were you aware that Josh Willingham led the Athletics in homers (29) and RBI (98) in 2011? Or how about this. Willingham hit more homers than Carlos Gonzalez (26) and had more RBI than Hunter Pence (97) in 2011. Not bad you say? That’s a good way to describe Willingham – he’s not a difference maker, but as a depth bat, ideally he’d be a six place hitter on a championship level team, he’s not bad at all. Well, the Twins decided that Willingham was the bat for them as they agreed to a 3-year deal for $21 million so that he could be their right-handed power behind Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau (Michael Cuddyer, a player you can read about in this Player Profile, was that right-handed bat the last few years but he’s now a Colorado Rockie). Did they make a wise choice?

The issue with Willingham is always the same, it’s his track record of back woes and ill health. In 2006-07 Willingham appeared in 142 and 144 games, but since that time he’s never been back to that level and, moreover, he’s averaged just 121 games the past four years. It’s tough for a guy to be one of the centerpiece weapons of your club if he misses one of every four games. As a result of all the missed games, Josh has hit 20 homers in only two of the last four years. However, since the start of the 2006 season he has averaged 22 homers a year or 25 homers per 500 at-bats. What he did last season, spending half his games in a ballpark in Oakland that doesn’t do hitters any homer favors, was an impressive feat (he hit 15 of his homers at home in 2011). I’ll say this though. He’s unlikely to hit 30 homers in a season unless he does get 500 at-bats because his HR/F ratio for his career is solid at 14.5 percent but far from imposing (it also doesn’t help much to learn that Target Field had mere the 8th best Park Indices for an AL park for homers by right-handed batters).

As for his batting average, that isn’t likely to improve much, especially if he repeats what he did last year. Did he expand his strike zone and start swinging for homers? It seems that way. After posting a BB/K mark of at least 0.50 in 5-straight years that number fell to a career worst 0.37 last year. That’s not a number that speaks to a strong the potential of posting a solid batting average. It’s also unlikely that he will hit much better than his .262 career rate for two main reasons. (1) He strikes out too much with over 20 percent of his at-bats resulting in a walk back to the dugout. (2) Just look at the back of his ball card. He hasn’t hit better than .268 in five years.

Willingham has a nice power bat but there are also plenty of concerns about his inability to remain on the field (again, he’s averaged less than 125 games a season the past four years). Willingham also is a rather average outfielder who is already 33 years old. Adding that up it’s probably not a great bet to lay down that he will repeat his 2011 numbers in 2012. It’s certainly possible, but there are enough concerns here that Willingham makes a much more attractive addition in a single league than in a mixed league setup for 2012. Still, Willingham is one of those guys you can add in mixed leagues as your 4th or 5th outfielder if you are comfortable with assuming the risk. If he reaches expectations you will be fine with what he gives you, but if he fails to deliver you can always go to the waiver-wire and pick up a guy like Ryan Ludwick or Garret Jones to help out your squad in the power department.

 

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Michael Cuddyer

'Nick Punto and Michael Cuddyer' photo (c) 2007, Keith Allison - license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/Michael Cuddyer is a solid major league player, both on the offensive side of things as well as with the glove. What will the team that signs him to a contract be getting, and what should you expect from him if you roster him in 2012 in the fantasy game?

One of the biggest strengths of Cuddyer is his ability to play, and thereby qualify, at multiple positions on the diamond. In 2012, given a 20 games played minimum in 2011, Cuddyer will qualify at first base (46 games) and the oufield (77 games). Unfortuantely, those are the two worst positions to qualify for considering that’s where so many offensive weapons patrol the landscape. If only he had appeared in a few more games at second base (17). He’ll still qualify at two spots in ’12, but with second and third base out of the mix in most leagues, Cuddyer’s value is diminshed somewhat heading into next season.

In terms of his offensive production, I feel like people often overestimate his impact.

Cuddyer has no real speed. Sure he stole 11 bases in 2011, but it was a career-high. Given that he had never before stolen more than seven bases, it’s a fair bet that we’ll see some regression in 2012, particularly since it’s not often that we see 33 year olds set a career best in the steals category.

Cuddyer is also barely better than your league average type in the batting average category. We are talking about a guy coming off a career best effort of .284, the same mark he also posted in 2006, and .012 points clear of his career batting average of .272. Could he repeat that mark in 2012? Certianly he could. But it bares repeating that he has never hit .285 in a season. He’s also coming off a season with a 0.51 BB/K mark, a direct match for his career rate. He also posted a slightly low 17.8 percent line drive rate. Not only is that line drive rate below the big league average of 19-20 percent, it’s also below Cuddyer’s personal mark of 18.5 percent and it is the third straight season he has failed to post a mark of even 18 percent. Add in a BABIP of .312, a 4-year high and slightly above his career .306 mark, and you can hopefully begin to understand why my picture of Cuddyer doesn’t include an impressive batting average in 2012.

Cuddyer also doesn’t have the power that some might think. There is no dispiuting that that Target Field hasn’t helped as the Park Indices mark for homers at Target Field is 10th in the American League the last two years. Still, Cuddyer has only hit more than 25 homers once in his career, 32 in 2009, and per 550 at-bats in his career we’re talking about a man with a 19 homer rate. It should also be pointed out that three times in the last five years his HR/F ratio has been in the single digits, and that his 12.3 percent career mark is barely better than average.

Adding everything up, Cuddyer is what he is, and that is a very solid, across the board contributor that can help any team. However, just because he has value doesn’t mean he should be someone you should target at the draft table in fantasy baseball. Cuddyer isn’t going to provide much of a boost to your team’s batting average, and he also isn’t likely to steal more than a handful of bases. As I’ve also touched on, his power is solid but far from the elite levels that one hopes for when you’re looking to add a player to handle first base or outfield duties. Obviously if he ends up in a better offensive ball yard surrounded by talented players that will not hurt his fantasy value, but the only way he would have truly been someone to target on draft day 2012 is if he had played three more lousy games at second base.

NOTE: Cuddyer signed a 3-year deal for more than $31 million to join the Rockies. While this might be a best possible scenario for Cuddyer, it doesn’t change the main thrust of this report, especially now that the humidor has sapped some of the offensive potential of hitters. Cuddyer is likely to hit a handful more home runs than initially expected, and his average could push .290 given his new home, but don’t let the ball yard lead you to think that Cuddyer is something that he isn’t.

By Ray Flowers