Positional Eligibility Matters

The Tigers announced, through GM Dave Dombrowski, that Victor Martinez will not catch in 2013 as the Tigers plan to let Alex Avila and Brayan Pena handle the tools of ignorance. This decision has a whole bunch of fantasy implications that need to be investigated an understood, so I will use V-Mart as my primary discussion point on positional eligibility before listing a whole series of other players who may or may not be worth an extra bit of emphasis on draft day because of the positions on the field that they are, or aren’t, qualified for in the fantasy game.

(1) If V-Mart doesn’t catch in 2013 and only suits up at DH what does that do to his positional eligibility in your fantasy league? Usually we just look back to the previous season and see if the guy played 20 games at a position. If he did, then we just lock him into eligibility for that position. However, Victor didn’t play a single game last year after he injured his knee (he tore his ACL and had surgery. Current reports suggest that he should be good to go for Opening Day). Does that mean he will only be DH eligible in 2013, or does your league do what I think is the correct thing to do which is to look back at the last season the player actually appeared in the big leagues? If we take that tact and look back at 2011 we find that Martinez did appear in 26 games as a catcher and therefore should be catcher eligible in 2013. This is a vital question to answer – where does Martinez qualify in 2013? As a catching option Martinez is a potentially elite play. As a DH only player he’s merely a solid option. Huge difference in value as a result of where he qualifies.

(2) If he really isn’t going to catch, what happens in interleague play when the Tigers face an NL club? Obviously he isn’t going to play first base with Prince Fielder there. Does that mean when the Tigers are forced to play an “NL game” that Victor will merely be limited to pinch hitting duties? Does that negate the potential benefits he should derive from being a full-time DH since he won’t be able to start for stretches of time? Also, how will he respond to being out of the starting lineup for days at a time when the Tigers face those NL clubs? A few points to consider when it comes to evaluating the expected levels of production that one should expect from Martinez in 2013. Obviously, there’s a lot to think about with a guy like V-Mart beyond what should one be expecting from his bat (I would assume that he will return as a very impressive hitter, though what exactly that means is a tad uncertain. I’d be looking at his 2010 effort as my baseline, and in that season he hit .302 with 20 homers and 79 RBIs. Don’t forget that the 34 year old sat out an entire season last year, and that is significant even if many will try to minimize its importance).

Here are some other key players to think about in terms of how their positional eligibility effects their value. Remember, the standard for most leagues is 20 games played at a position the previous year.

Mike Aviles is only shortstop eligible after appearing in two games at second and one at third.

Jose Bautista will only qualify as an outfielder in 2013 after appearing in only one game at third and four at first in 2012.

Brandon Belt appeared in only four games in the outfield losing eligibility there.

Emilio Bonifacio plays all over the place and he should do the same thing for the Blue Jays in 2013. Here are his games played totals from last season: outfield (51 games), second base (15 games). So much for his second, third and shortstop eligibility from ’11.

Billy Butler appeared in only 11 games at first base in 2011 causing him to be DH only eligible in 2012. He rectified that situation by appearing in 20 games at first in 2012.

Chris Davis lost third base from his ledger (zero games), but he is still eligible at first and the outfield.

Edwin Encarnacion is only first base eligible in 2013. He suited up just one time at third base last season.

Adrian Gonzalez fell just short of qualifying in the outfield with 18 games in right field.

Mike Morse appeared in only one game at first base.

Trevor Plouffe has a nice power bat but he qualifies only at third base (95 games) heading into the season. He should be a starter in the outfield for the Twins in 2013, but he appeared in only 17 games in the outfield, four at second and one at short last season.

Martin Prado appeared in 119 games in the outfield, 25 at third, 13 at shortstop, 10 at second and four at first base.

Hanley Ramirez appeared 98 times at third and 57 times at shortstop. Don’t forget that also means that he is eligible to fill the middle and corner infield spots.

Mark Reynolds appeared in 108 games at first but only 15 at third base.

Kyle Seager qualifies at third base (138 games) but not at second (18 games, 14 starts).

Mark Trumbo may or may not qualify as a first baseman for you. He appeared in 21 games at first base last season but only 16 as a starter. Does your league use starts or appearances as the benchmark? Make sure you check it out.

Michael Young appeared in 41 games at first and 25 games at third base. He was only a second sacker 16 times.

Ben Zobrist is a money play in 2013. Not only does he produced impressive numbers at the dish, but he also qualifies at second (58 games), outfield (71 games) and, here’s the kicker, shortstop (47 games). That ability to fill three roster spots is golden and certainly bumps up his value substantially, especially in deeper leagues.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Michael Young

Michael Young has been one of the most consistent hitters in baseball the past decade. From 2003-12 Young was second in baseball with 1,984 hits, his total of 371 doubles was fourth and his total of 951 runs scored was 7th. Over the last decade an average Young season in the fantasy game has led to a line of .308-16-87-95-8 with those 198 hits a season. Always willing to do what is best for the team, Young has seasons of least 130 games played at second base/third base/shortstop in his career, and he’s also had a season of more than 40 games at first (that 40 games season at first was in 2012 so he will qualify at both corner infield spots in 2013 but not second base where he appeared in just 16 games). Despite all of that amazing work, Young saw his totals last season regress to his worst overall levels since 2002 (he hit .277 with eight homers, 67 RBIs, 79 runs scored and two steals). Is the 37 year old at the end of the line in terms of being an upper echelon fantasy performer?

I noted it above, but one of the biggest dings to the value of Young moving forward is that he will not qualify at second base at the start of the 2013 season. His bat would still play at second base, but as a corner infield option? The only way that will work is if we are talking about an AL-only setup. As for that bat…

Young has never been a power hitter but last seasons total of eight homers was the first time he failed to hit at least 11 homers since 2007 and it was also his lowest mark since becoming a big leaguer. Some of the blame for that resides in the fact that Young hit more ground balls than ever before last season with 53.2 percent of his batted balls hitting the turf (the first time in his illustrious career that his GB-rate was over 50 percent). Young also registered a 6.1 HR/F mark, a career worst. Fifteen homers is the top end of what you should expect from Young moving forward, and even that is being rosie. A slight uptick in this category is possible, but it really doesn’t matter cause you shouldn’t be drafting Young for the long ball. I should also note that Young failed to reach 30 doubles for the first time since 2002. Moreover, he failed to reach 35 doubles for the first time since 2004. It wasn’t just the home run power that disappointed.

Young drove in 67 runs, his lowest total since 2002. Given that he hit in a powerful Rangers lineup, and spent 123 games last season in the five or six hole in the lineup, there really isn’t a good reason to explain the lack of ribbies. After back-to-back seasons of 91 and 106 RBIs the major fall of last season was a drag on his value. He figures to find it hard to move back up the RBI column if he’s not at the top of the batting order and if the extra base power doesn’t come back.

But the real issue here with Young isn’t a slight dip in homers, or a regression in RBIs, the real concern is that batting average dip. Young hit .277 last season, his lowest mark in a decade (he had hit at least .284 each year from 2003-11). However, it shouldn’t really be that shocking that his average regressed. I say that because Young hit .338 in 2011, the best mark of his career. Average out the last two seasons and you end up with a .308 average which is seven points better than his career .301 mark. Sample size and all you know. Delving further, we see a 5.1 percent walk rate, his lowest since 2003. He somewhat negated the lack of walks by making better contact than he had ever before. Young had a K-rate of 10.8 percent, a career low, which led to a 0.47 BB/K rate, slightly better than his career 0.46 mark. I would also say that it’s a bit strange to see a guys batting average dip when he posts a 22.9 percent line drive rate, but it’s actually below his 24.2 percent career mark even though it’s still the second best mark he’s posted of the last five years.

Young profiles as a solid single league option in 2013. He’s power has never been significant enough to warrant much love, and his lack of qualification at second base also hinders his outlook. It’s fair to think that his batting average could come back up a bit in 2013, but he’s also 37 years old so there is no guarantee he will return to the ranks of .300 hitters. Don’t draft Young based on name recognition or in the hopes that he will repeat his terrific 2011 effort (.338-11-106-88). If you do you will end up disappointed.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Positional Review – Third Base

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

2012 THIRD BASE Top-10

1 Evan Longoria
2 Jose Bautista
3 Ryan Zimmerman
4 Kevin Youkilis
5 Aramis Ramirez
6 David Wright
7 Adrian Beltre
8 Pablo Sandoval
9 Alex Rodriguez
10 Michael Young

Longoria performed as expected when on the field hitting .289 with 17 homers and 55 RBIs in just 74 games. Of course, it was just 74 games as a leg issue limited him for a huge portion of the year. One of those first round selections that didn’t live up to his draft day cost.

Bautista, just like Longoria, was exactly what was expected when on the field as he blasted 27 homers with 65 RBIs and 64 runs scored in a mere 92 games. Of course, his average fell back to the doldrums (.241) as I always thought it would. For 2013 he will only qualify in the outfield.

Zimmerman hit. 224 in April and had just two homers on June 1st. Awful right? Despite that start, in the end it was a “normal” Ryan Zimmerman season, i.e., a damn good one. When it was all said and done he hit .282 with 25 homers, 95 RBIs and 93 runs scored. Damn impressive considering the start he had.

Youkilis played for both Sox this year, and he actually wasn’t all that bad in Chicago as he hit 15 long balls with 46 RBIs and 47 runs scored in just 80 games played. That’s 30-90-90 in a full season folks. Too bad he hit .233 with the Red Sox and .236 with the Whites.

Ramirez is always taken later on draft day than he should be. He went out in his first year in Milwaukee and hit .300 with 27 homers, 105 RBIs and 92 runs scored (not to mention a career best 50 doubles). Hell, he even stole nine bases. Once again he was a rock of offensive production from the hot corner.

Wright hit only .258 with a .750 OPS in the second half. That’s terrible. Still, how can you turn away from a guy who hit .306 with 21 homers, 93 RBIs, 91 runs and 15 steals? Rumors of him being washed up simply weren’t remotely accurate.

Beltre had the second best season of his career hitting .321 with 36 bombds, 102 ribbies and 95 runs scored. His owners won’t forget his mad dash to the finish either as he hit .345 with 11 homers over his last 29 games.

Sandoval struggled with yet another hammate bone issue that required surgery, and he continued to gain weight at an alarming rate. He hit .283 with 63 RBIs in just 396 at-bats, but there are a ton of reasons why Sandoval shouldn’t be drafted too highly next season. Get it, a “ton” of reasons?

Rodriguez had hit 30 homers with 100 RBIs each year from from 1998-2010, a major league record 13-straight seasons. Last year he slumped to 16-62 in 99 games, and this year he fell even further with 18 homers and 57 RBIs in 122 contests. At least he stole 13 bases to give him a tiny bit of value. OK, I’m stretching.

Young had a solid end to the year hitting .313 over his final 31 games, but that still left his season long average at .277, his first sdeason under .280 since 2002. He also failed to reach double-digit homers for the first time in five years, and his 67 runs batted in were also his lowest mark since 2002. For a player who is 36 years old it’s fair to wonder just how much Young will be able to “bounce back” in 2013.

Hit: Aramis Ramirez (#5), Brett Lawrie (#12)
I list Lawrie because I believe I had him lower than any other source I saw this season (I know of a couple of websites that listed him as a top-30 overall player this season). Lawrie had a solid effort hitting .273 with 11 homers, 48 RBIs, 73 RBIs and 13 steals, but based upon most people’s expectations that effort was viewed as a monumental failire. It should not have been.

Miss: Kevin Youkilis
Michael Young wasn’t too far behind either.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

I hate to say I told you so, oh who are we kidding I love nothing more than to tell you I told you so, but Henderson Alvarez has stunk this year. As I wrote back on April 2nd in his Player Profile: “Henderson Alvarez had “no chance” of being a top-75 SP in 2012…He also doesn’t miss enough bats putting him at the mercy of his defense and some random forces.” Amazingly for a guy who throws 93 mph with a wicked high 57.3 ground ball rate, Alvarez has still been just as bad as I suggested he would be five months ago. He’s gone 9-12 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.46 WHIP with, wait for it, 62 Ks in 168.2 innings. That’s a 3.31 K/9 mark. You could TRIPLE that and he still wouldn’t be striking out 10 batters per nine innings. Given his stuff, that’s an unbelievably pathetic number.

It looks like the Cards will roll out there Chris Carpenter next week. Can’t have set up a better return for him either as it looks like he will be on the hill to face the Astros (more on them below). Carpenter will still have to make it through a 90 pitch simulated game, so he’s still no lock to return from his neck/shoulder woes, but the clubs is encouraged.

Felix Hernandez seems to think that he is Dice-K all of a sudden. King Felix allowed seven runs Thursday night and now has a 9.00 ERA and 2.13 WHIP over his last three starts. What do I always say? Sample size people. He’s been unabashedly awful his last three starts but over his last 12 outings he still owns a 2.63 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. It’s not what anyone really wants to hear, but the truth is that things are just returning to “normal” with his performance.

Torii Hunter is hitting .300 this year, .309 to be precise. If you try to check the old memory banks for the last time that Hunter hit .300 you’ll be searching for a while since he has never hit .300 before as a big leaguer (he was one hit short in 2009 as he finished the season at .299). It’s not often that a guy sets a career best in his 16th season, but it certainly seems possible for Hunter given that he’s hitting an out of this world .351 over his last 56 games. Overlooked every year on draft day, Hunter just goes out and produces year after year (he’s batting .309 with 15 homers, 76 RBIs, 72 runs scored and nine steals).

The Houston Astros are 46-98 and have been outscored by their opponent by a major league worst 206 runs. No other NL team has been outscored by more than 117 runs (the Cubs). That is all.

Phil Hughes tossed 7.1 shutout innings against the listless Red Sox Thursday to up his season long record to 15-12. I know he’s a Yankee so everyone gets all excited about him, but consider these points. (1) His 3.96 ERA is only slightly below the league average of 4.09. (2) His 7.61 K/9 is only slightly better than the league average of 7.39. (3) His 1.25 WHIP is only slightly ahead of the league average as well (1.31). He’s solid, but you can put the ticker tape parade on hold.

Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde meet Jason Kipnis. Everyone’s fantasy darling at second base hit the All-Star break with a .277-11-49-53-20 line. In the 52 games since he has hit .216 with three homers, 18 RBIs, 21 runs scored and just seven steals in 13 attempts. He’s gone from being Ian Kinsler to Ronny Cedeno.

Lance Lynn stepped into the rotation for an injured Jake Westbrook an allowed one run over six innings Thursday (Westbook could still miss a couple more weeks of action so Lynn may see a start or two more down the stretch). With the effort he lowered his ERA to 3.95 on the season while picking up his 15th win. He’s been a remarkable waiver-wire add this year even if he has a 4.97 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over his last 54.1 innings.

Joe Nathan blew it on Friday night as he allowed three runs without getting an out for the Rangers.  He only has a 2.83 ERA, 10.99 K/9 and 30 saves in 32 chances. Loser.

I saw Raiders of the Lost Ark last night in IMAX. Pretty amazing I must say. It’s the first time I’ve seen it in the theaters – I was an HBO junkie as a kid. The film holds up really well with the passage of some 30 years.

It’s way too little, way too late, but Michael Young has finally started to hit a bit. In 12 games in September he has posted three homers and 10 RBIs. Too little too late as I stated, but maybe he can give ya something down the stretch.

HITTERS – FRIDAY
Carlos Lee vs. Bronson Arroyo: .321-3-11 in 53 at-bats
Evan Longoria vs. CC Sabathia: .378-5-9 in 37 at-bats
Vernon Wells vs. Brice Chen: .333-3-7 in 21 at-bats

HITTERS – SATURDAY
Robinson Cano vs. James Shields: .417-4-12 in 72 at-bats
Casey Kotchman vs. Anibal Sanchez:  .471-1-3 in 17 at-bats
Michael Young vs. Jason Vargas: .400-1-6 in 30 at-bats

PITCHERS – FRIDAY
Aaron Laffey vs Red Sox: .230/.302/.287 in 87 at-bats
Chris Sale vs. Twins: .183/.231/.283 in 60 at-bats

PITCHERS – SATURDAY
Edwin Jackson vs. Braves: .207/.292/.319 in 116 at-bats
Shaun Marcum vs. Nets: .196/.281/.301 in 56 at-bats

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August15, 2012

(1) Lucas Harrell on terrific run for slumping Astros. Has anyone noticed? Check out his ownership rate over at Fleaflicker. Let’s jsut say it’s low.

(2) Nick Swisher performing like, Nick Swisher.

(3) Hiroki Kuroda getting it done for Yankees, big time.

(4) Josh Johnson sharp as ever of late.

(5) Troy Tulowitzki progressing.

(6) Michael Cuddyer (oblique) could return this week.

(7) Michael Young will continue to start over Mike Olt.

(8) Sample size and splits.

By Ray Flowers

The Fantasy Beat: Enjoying Multiple Positions

The Fantasy Beat with Trevor Ray and Justin Fensterman talks about the players that fill several different positions for fantasy baseball. They discuss the benefits of having these players and some of the players with multiple position eligibility you should go after and stay away from.

Michael Young, Ryan Roberts, Emilio Bonifacio, Howie Kendrick, Michael Cuddyer, Michael Morse, Robert Andino

Listen to the Audio.

Third Base: A Wasteland?

The assumption in 2012 is that third base is a shallow position in fantasy baseball. Over at MockDraftCentral people seem to be agreeing with that line of thought as everyone is jumping in early to roster their man at the hot corner. There are nine third baseman going in the top-85 selections, and that doesn’t include Jose Bautista who would bring that number to ten (he’s listed as an outfielder though he obviously qualifies at third base). After that group there are three other third base eligible players going in picks 85-200… a vast span of time for only three third sackers to be drafted. So what’s going on at third base? Some thoughts follow.

Last year only three third base eligible performers hit .300: Michael Young (.338), Aramis Ramirez (.306) and Jose Bautista (.302).

Last year four third base eligible performers hit 30 homers: Bautista (43), Mark Reynolds (37), Adrian Beltre (32) and Evan Longoria (31).

Last year only three third base eligible performers posted 100 runs batted in: Young (106), Beltre (105) and Bautista (103).

Last year only one third base eligible player had 90 runs scored: Bautista (105).

All told, shockingly, there were three third base eligible players who hit .270 with 20 homers, 75 RBI and 75 runs scored. Those are certainly solid numbers no doubt, but only three guys were able to hit all three benchmarks (Bautista, Beltre and Ramirez)? Clearly there is a lack of stardom at the hot corner, or is there?

In 2012 injuries limited Pablo Sandoval to 117 games, David Wright to 102, Ryan Zimmerman to 101 and Alex Rodriguez to 99.  What if all of those guys play 140 games in 2012? That would give us eight guys to count on (in addition to the three above players who hit all four benchmarks).

That group of seven doesn’t include Evan Longoria who is going in the top-15 in every draft this season. That’s gets us up to eight third sackers.

Kevin Youkilis appeared in only 120 games last year, but the pace he set, if he played 145 games, would equate to 21 homers, 97 RBI and 82 runs. That’s nine quality third baseman.

Mark Reynolds may only be a .225 type of hitter, but his power and run production is elite. The last three years he has hit 113 homers, the most at the position. He has 273 RBI, the third highest total at the position. He’s also scored 261 runs, second to Longoria (274) amongst third sackers. That’s 10 quality third basemen.

Brett Lawrie is going off the board as the 5th third baseman ahead of Arod. I may not think he deserves to go that high despite oodles of talent, but even if I were to knock him down the board substantially he’s still a guy who everyone could agree is worthy of a top-12 pick.

Though Michael Young hit only 11 homers last season he hit .338, knocked in 106 runners and scored 88 times. Pretty sure he belongs in the top-12 at the hot corner.

So that’s 12 third basemen that you can pretty easily turn to. If you’re in a 12 team league that means nearly everyone who comes to the dance will have a hottie to hold (and this discussion hasn’t even included guys like Miguel Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez who will be playing third base this year).

You want more love at third?

David Freese was the MVP of the world during the playoffs last year. For more on Freese see his Player Profile.

Ryan Roberts hit 19 homers, stole 18 bases and he scored 86 runs, the third highest total at the position.

Mike Moustakas, according to most observers, is a 25-90 bat waiting to happen.

Chase Headley has the potential to go 15/15 and score plenty of runs with his approach. OK, maybe that’s a stretch, but he still has talent (see his Player Profile).

I could go on and talk about former elite level prospects like Mat Gamel and Pedro Alvarez and why it makes sense to take a shot on both late in drafts this season, but I think the point has been made. While third base may be a little top heavy, I’d argue that unless you’re in a deep league that you should feel pretty confident that there are enough men who man the hot corner to go around.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Positional Review – Third Base

You remember back to March when I gave away all my position player rankings for free, right? For those of you who want to revisit my greatest hits, here’s where you would go to get all my rankings for hitters – 2011: BBGuys Hitter Capsules.

I’m nothing if not accountable, so I’ll review my top-10 predictions at each position as well as point out my biggest “hit” outside of the top-10 and my biggest “bust.”

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

2011 THIRD BASE Top-10

1 Evan Longoria
2 David Wright
3 Alex Rodriguez
4 Ryan Zimmerman
5 Aramis Ramirez
6 Mark Reynolds
7 Michael Young
8 Adrian Beltre
9 Pedro Alvarez
10 Casey McGehee

Longoria hit a terrible .244, and his steal total fell by 12 down to three, but he still powered 31 homers and drove in 99 runs thanks to a furious second half finish (20 homers and 57 RBI in 72 games). He’s plenty young enough (26) to put it all together and run off some massive seasons.

Wright had hit at least 25 homers with 100 RBI and 85 runs scored in five of the last six seasons, so his 14 homers, 61 RBI and 60 runs were obviously a massive disappointment. Thrown in a career worst .255 average, from a guy who has hit .300 in his career, and you were rightly ticked off if he was on your squad.

Rodriguez lost his record streak of 30-100 seasons at 13 as he appeared in only 99 games which limited him to 16 homers and 62 RBI. In the end it was the worst season of his career as he also scored a career worst 67 runs with another career worst in his OPS (.823).

Zimmerman appeared in only 101 games limiting him to a .289-12-49-52 line, but if we give him 550 at-bats at that pace he would have hit .289-17-68-72 which wouldn’t have been too awful given all his starts and stops. He needs to stay healthy.

Ramirez hit two homers in April and May. Two. He then blasted 17 the next two months, hit .377 in August, an in the end produced yet another terrific season for the Cubs (.306-26-93-80-1). The cream almost always rises to the top.

Reynolds always gets dogged for the terrible average (.221) and all the strikeouts (196), but he should get some credit to. He was second at the position with 37 homers (Jose Bautista had 43), and he was one of only four third baseman with 25 homers, 80 RBI and 80 runs scored and one of three with 30-80-80 (Bautista and Beltre).

Young only played 40 games at third, but at the dish he was his normal fantastic self. Young hit .338, the best mark of his career, and also posted a career best 106 RBI. Toss in 88 runs scored and he gave his owners exactly what they were hoping for and a little bit more.

Beltre was injured and appeared in only 124 games, but he still powered 32 homers, knocked in 105 and his a strong .296. He was everything the Rangers hoped he would be when they signed him.

Alvarez was an abject failure. He appeared in 74 games and, amazingly for a guy who was the second overall selection in 2008, he hit .191 with four homers in 235 at-bats. To think, many people chose him over Mark Reynolds.

McGehee wasn’t a choice I loved. In fact, I warned in The Guide that he was the only third sacker who had 85 RBI who failed to score 75 runs in 2010, and I also pointed out how his minor league track record didn’t match his offensive fireworks with the Brewers. I should have gone with my gut and ranked Pablo Sandoval, who I had 11th, ahead of McGehee.

Hit: Jhonny Peralta #14
Obviously he was more useful as a shortstop eligible player, but with all the injuries at third Peralta could have played there all year and done very well. Peralta hit 21 homers, knocked in 86 runs, scored 68 times and hit a career best .299. All-around it was a fine year, and in context of all the injuries at third, it was a top-10 effort.

Bust: Everyone
DL stints seemed a prerequisite at third this year. Here are the games played totals of some of the preseason elite: Longoria (133), Wright (102), Arod (99), Zimmerman (101) and Sandoval (117).

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September23, 2011

(1) Leo Nunez not actually Leo Nunez?

(2) All Michael Young does is hit, hit, hit.

(3) Pablo Sandoval proving 2010 was a fluke.

(4) Can Matt Kemp actually win the NL Triple Crown?

(5) Ryan Howard ready to return from ankle injury.

(6) Matt Moore dominates the Yankees. Is he the next Stephen Strasburg?

By Ray Flowers

Answering Your Questions

People ask me questions every day, and I do my best to give a thoughtful, and hopefully well reasoned, answer to each of them. In what follows I’m going to answer some of the questions that were posted in the COMMENTS section of the Around the Horn, July 21st article.

What the outlook on Adam Wainwright for next year? Is he worthy on a keeper position in a 12 league (10 keepers)? Or would Jair Jurrjens or is Max Scherzer be a safer bet?
– Josh

It sounds like Wainwright is ahead of schedule in his return from Tommy John surgery. All reports point to him being full healthy and ready to go by Opening Day 2012 (in fact, there are rumors floating that he might even be able to help the Cardinals this year if they make the playoffs). Wainwright had 39 wins in 2009-10, the second best total in baseball (one behind CC Sabathia). He also worked 463.1 innings, 6th in the game. You can’t expect him to go out there and toss 230 innings in his first year back, but with 2-straight years with an ERA under 2.65, and back-to-back 200 K seasons, it would be pretty tough not to protect him given that you keep 10 guys. Scherzer is healthier, of course, but his upside at the moment may not be the levels that Wainwright reached the last two years. Jurrjens has been spectacular, but as I continue to say, he just doesn’t have the skills to keep this up long term. I’d keep Wainwright.

Ray… what do u think of this trade Travis Hafner, Desmond Jennings, Rickie Weeks and Michael Young for Prince Fielder, Roy Halladay and Nick Markakis. 5 x 5 12 team roto. I don’t know if I’m just jealous the person didn’t trade with me or the trade was lopsided.
– Brian

I say it all the time, I don’t like deals that are this big – there are just too many parts to get a great read on the situation.

Hafner is locked into the UT spot, and for all his good with the stick, he just can’t stay healthy. Jennings has elite speed, and has shown more pop than expected in Triple-A this year, but he continues to be dogged by injuries. When will he be up? We all thought he would have been a month and a half ago. Weeks is an elite second baseman. Young is a solid hitter, .300 is always a reasonable expectation, and he qualifies at multiple spots.

Prince Fielder is a total beast, ditto Roy Halladay, and Nick Markakis it hitting .319 over his last 69 games. If this is a re-draft league I totally agree with you. This deal is completely unfair, obnoxiously so actually.

Evan Longoria is nursing an injury in his leg. Would you be worried he gets shut down early this year? Are you scared this injury could hurt him significantly in future years. Would you be scared if you owned him in a keeper league? Do you think Eric Hosmer has Ryan Braun/Joey Votto/Justin Morneau upside in a few years?
– Thomas

I don’t worry about Longoria being shut down unless he’s going to do long-term danger to himself. Of course, I’m not a doctor, and I didn’t stay at a Holiday Inn last night, so I really don’t know. I’m certainly not concerned about injuries being a long-term issue.

As for Hosmer, he could hit .295 with 22 homers and 77 RBI, the numbers of Morneau over his last 509 at-bats. However, I’m not going to sit here and say he’s gonna hit .320 with 35 homers like Braun and Votto as that would be unfair to Hosmer if he settles in as a .300-25 guy. Could Hosmer get to that upper level? Sure, but remember, you can count on one hand, two at the most, the guys that could go .320-35 year after year. I’s a very small group.

I need ERA, WHIP, K’s – my staff is Michael Pineda, Jeremy Hellickson, Yovani Gallardo, Johnny Cueto and Max Scherzer. I am scared of both Pineda and Hellickson inning limits so thinking of offering Hellickson, Howie Kendrick, Eric Hosmer for Cole Hamels, Alexi Casilla, Travis Snider…good move?
– Scott

Pineda could have his innings limited. In fact he likely will according to the Mariners. Hellickson, not so worried about him and the innings, but he could have his workload curtailed.

Kendrick is a .300 hitter with some pop, speed, and qualification at positions all over the field. Hosmer is a solid bat, but in a non-keeper league he isn’t close to being a top flight first baseman option. Hamels is elite. No reason to expect a drop-off moving forward. Casilla is hitting only .247 with a .290 OBP and two steals the last month. Snider is killing it, .326 with two homers and 14 RBI the past two weeks.

You’re giving up a ton of talent to get an ace. However, this move would fit your need, though I’d be reluctant to do it.

I was just wondering your opinion on two players. I recently got Melky Cabrera and Mark Trumbo on my team thru trade and free agency, respectively. What do you think about these players? Can they keep up their numbers the rest of the way? I think Melky is real interesting because before I got him I didn’t realize how young he was as it seemed like he’s been playing forever, all those years with the Yankees. Now he’s putting up great 5 cat numbers. Is he just coming into his own? And Trumbo, will he hit a wall soon?
– Jackson

Melky is on pace to produce a 5×5 line of .294-19-89-100-23. Every one of those numbers would be a career best. He’s doing tall that despite a career worst walk rate an a career high strikeout rate. He’s also bettered his career OBP by a mere .002 points (it’s a league average .331). His GB/FB ratio is 1.55, an exact match for his career level. Oh, his HR/F ratio is 11.1 percent, a massive increase on his career rate (6.8). Cabrera isn’t as good as he has looked. He’s basically doing what he always does, with never before seen power that I doubt will continue. He’s also a trade option, and I could see him getting dealt to a team where he plays four out of five days which would diminish his value. He’s not a 20 homer bat, he’s not a 20 steal runner, and he’s not a .300 hitter despite what we’ve seen to this point.

Trumbo is having a nice season. With 18 homers and 44 RBI in 320 at-bats, he’s on pace to end the year with 29 homers and 72 RBI which would be wonderful numbers for a rookie. There’s no reason to expect him to hit a wall simply because the calendar is ready to move to August in a week and a half. He’s done a decent job with a strikeout per 4.32 at-bats, though he isn’t drawing many walks (5.2 BB-rate). He’s not likely to see his batting average increase much (.259) given that, but he should continue to pound the long ball.

By Ray Flowers