Insanity Reigns Supreme

In what follows you will read the tale of the best agent in baseball, a solid third basemen who is being paid as if he is the second coming of Mike Schmidt, and how a team with no chance of winning their division in 2011 is willing to dump $14 million into three moderately effective relievers.

Beltre to AL Champs

Now I’ve seen it all.

Middle relievers are getting multi year deals for more than $5 million a year, which is bad enough, but this whole Adrian Beltre situation has me totally befuddled until I read two words – Scott Boras. Somehow Beltre’s agent, Mr. Boras, has convinced the Rangers that they just had to have Beltre. Not only that, he’s convinced them to pay more than the $80-85 million Beltre was seeking as current reports put the deal he is on the verge of signing with the Rangers at 6-years and $96 million (see Postcards from Elysian Fields). Oh the deal isn’t done, and it does appear to have some language in it that could void the sixth year, but it seems like a near lock that it will get worked out. So here are my questions.

(1) Is Beltre worth that much money? I certainly don’t think so and I’ve written just that multiple times including an in depth look at the player in The Curious Case of Adrian Beltre. Give it a read before you think that the Rangers are spending their money wisely.

(2) How in the world did Mr. Boras get the Rangers to go six years and nearly $100 million on Beltre given that there seemed to be only one other team even remotely interested in Beltre? The Angels were the other team, but they reportedly pulled their 5-year, $70 million offer off the table when Beltre dragged his feat on accepting it. The Athletics long ago pulled out of the sweepstakes, and their offer was 5-years and $64 million according to reports. So again, I ask, how was Boras able to get six and 96 from the Rangers when no one else was reportedly within $25 million of that offer? There may be no person on the planet better at their job than Mr. Boras – not one.

(3) I can grant you that Beltre is a better defensive third baseman than Michael Young, but really, why the Rangers need to add Beltre to take over third and push Young to DH? Wouldn’t it have been more fiscally prudent just to leave Young at third and to bring free agent Vladimir Guerrero back to DH? Not only would they have saved something like $75 million compared to what they had to lay out for Beltre, their offense would likely have been just as good in 2011. Are the few runs a year that Beltre will save at third base worth the untold millions extra they are paying him?

(4) And finally, for the gazillionth time:
Beltre has one 30 homer season.
Beltre has two 100 RBI seasons.
Beltre has hit better than .290 just twice.

To compare – Aramis Ramirez has four 30-HR seasons, five 100 RBI efforts, and he has hit better than .290 six times, and few have ever considered him to be an elite option despite the fact that his offensive highs have dwarfed the efforts of Beltre.

Seriously, I just don’t get it.

Orioles Finally Sign Gregg

The Orioles finally got their man as they signed Kevin Gregg to a 2-year deal worth $10 million. According to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun, there is also a vesting option for a third year. For more on Gregg and his recent solid work on the hill spend a few moments looking over Hot Stove: Not Everyone is Greedy.

How does the end of the game look for the Orioles? They already have power lefty Michael Gonzalez in the pen, and he clearly can handle 9th inning work. I know he was injured last season and limited to just 24.2 innings last season because of injury, so the Orioles do need to make sure they have an alternative to Gonzalez. But still, they are paying him $6 million in 2011, and that is quite the cost for a setup man (and obviously, more than Gregg will be making). The Orioles did the smart thing and locked up control artist Koji Uehara for a mere $3 million on a one year deal (I say mere because of the aforementioned spending spree that GM’s went on this year with middle relievers). However, Uehara also had arm issues last season, and it’s unclear if he will be able to pitch every other day out of the bullpen. Uehara and Gonzalez are scheduled to make $9 million this year. Toss in another $5 million for Gregg and you are talking $14 million for those three arms in 2011. I guess in today’s age that isn’t too much to pay for a moderately successful closer, an injury prone lefty, and a guy who has thrown a total of 110.2 innings at the big league level.

Are you as pumped as I am about the upcoming 2011 fantasy baseball season? In order to help you kick off your quest to be a champion in ’11, we at Fanball have set out to provide you with all the tools that you need to accomplish your goal. Read more about how to start your journey in Your Fantasy Baseball Resolution where you will find links to staff rankings, projections, live advice and DraftPractice.com where you can mock away for FREE.

By Ray Flowers

World Series Numbers

The only numbers that really matters are 2 and 0, as in the Giants 2-0 lead over the Rangers, but that isn’t going to stop me from relaying a whole host of numbers that have come to light in the 2010 World Series.

* There have been 106 World Series match-ups, and this is the 52nd time that a team has taken a 2-0 Series lead. Of the 51 previous times it occurred, the team with the 2-0 lead has won 40 times – a winning percentage of 78.4 percent. The last seven teams to go ahead 2-0 have won the Series, and 13 of the last 14 (Atlanta came back in 1996). This is the fourth time that the Giants have led a Series 2-0, and they won each of the previous three times (1922, 1933 and 1954).

* Matt Cain is a star (note to East Coasters, he has been for a while now, he didn’t just all of a sudden get good). Cain is one of only four pitchers in history to post 20 or more scoreless innings in a single postseason. Here are the others: Christy Mathewson (27 IP), Waite Hoyt (27 IP), Kenny Rogers (23 IP) and Carl Hubbell (20.0). Some more Cain knowledge. Cain is the 8th starting pitcher in postseason history who has not allowed an earned run in 3-straight starts. Cain is the fourth pitcher out of that group to do so in his first three postseason starts. Only one pitcher has ever gone 4-straight – Whitey Ford in 1960-61.

* Elvis Andrus and Nelson Cruz both lost their playoff hitting streaks in Game 2 at 12 games. They had become the 4th and 5th players to compile a 12-game hitting streak to open up their playoff careers. The record is 15-straight by Marquis Grissom in 1995-96.

* The Giants, going all the way back to the New York vintage, have won 47 World Series games. The only two teams with more victories are the Yankees (134) and the Cardinals (52).

* FOUR: The number of starters the Giants have used through the playoffs, and each one of them is homegrown – Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner, That makes the Giants the first team since the 1986 Red Sox to have a 4-man World Series rotation of entirely homegrown hurlers (Roger Clemens, Bruce Hurst, Oil Can Boyd and Al Nipper).

* The Giants don’t score seven runs very often, they were held to six or fewer runs in 141 of their previous 172 games before Game 2, but when they do score seven runs they hardly ever lose (they are 29-4). Speaking of scoring runs, here are some other amazingly relevant facts.

The Giants went 4-for-9 with runners in scoring position in Game 2 and are now 13-for-26 in the Series.

Each of the Giants runs, all 20 of them, have come with two outs.

The Giants have scored more runs in their last 12 innings (19) than they did in winning the NLCS (17).

The Giants have scored nine runs in back-to-back World Series games, only the ninth time a team has done that in Series history.

* The heart of the Rangers lineup has been held in check. Michael Young (1-for-8), Josh Hamilton (1-for-8) and Nelson Cruz (1-for-9) are hitting a combined .120 through two games.

* Edgar Renteria, who is playing with a torn left biceps, has played 63 games at shortstop in the playoffs, second in baseball history to the 147 games of Derek Jeter. Oh, and after producing three RBI in Game 2 Renteria now has one 3-RBI game this season.

* Cliff Lee had never allowed more than three extra base hits in any playoff game. In Game 1 he allowed three doubles to Freddy Sanchez.

* TWO: The number of catchers in World Series history who have hit third in the lineup. Yogi Berra did it for the Yankees in 1947, and Buster Posey is currently doing it for the Giants.

By Ray Flowers

World Series: Giants vs. Rangers

With the 2010 World Series set to start today I will go through the lineups of the San Francisco Giants and the Texas Rangers to see which club has the advantage.

Oh, and if you are in search of that link for the NL Rookie of the Year, well, there you go.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: ALCS Preview

Ray Flowers breaks down the American League Championship Series with a position by position breakdown of the Yankees and the Rangers.

By Ray Flowers

History and 3B for 2011

I got a hankering to write about third sackers today, so I’m gonna lead off the piece today with that before moving on to two players whose place in history is already secure. Will those two “old timers” hang them up after the 2010 season, or will they continue to hang around?

Aramis Ramirez just can’t stay healthy, and his most recent visits to the doctor’s office is for a strained quadriceps muscle. At the same time the guy has been nails since the All-Star game hitting .295 with an .899 OPS. He’s also gone deep 12 times while knocking in 41 runs in just 45 games – that’s roughly a pace for 45 homers and 150 RBI. That recent run of excellence has upped his year marks to 22 homers and 73 RBI in just 403 at-bats on the season. By the way, Ramirez has the same homer total as Alex Rodriguez and one more than Evan Longoria, while only one third basemen in the game has more RBI in fewer at-bats this season (Scott Rolen has 78 RBI in 408 at-bats). I’m still going to have Aramis Ramirez in my top-10 third basemen next season, in fact, I’ll likely have him much higher than that. Since I brought it up, here are my thoughts on who my top-10 are at third base for the 2011 season (if you want to see how the supremely intelligent Ted Carlson ranked the top-10 third basemen for next season you can give his piece a read his his Five Tool Blog). Here is my list.

1- David Wright

2- Evan Longoria

3- Alex Rodriguez

4- Ryan Zimmerman

5- Aramis Ramirez

6- Mark Reynolds

7- Pablo Sandoval

8- Michael Young

9- Adrian Beltre

10- Jose Bautista

I want to puke at listing Bautista at #10, but there will be many who will likely put him even higher. Putting Pablo ahead of Young is a bit risky, but I’m going with the youngster and the upside potential over Mr. Reliable from Texas. I hesitate to list Reynolds 6th given that he is batting a rancid .211, but he is still second at the position with 32 bombs, has knocked in 83 runs, has stolen seven bases and scored 74 runs.

Ivan Rodriguez hit an impressive .296 over the first 60 games of the season, but he has regressed substantially since the All-Star break with a .229 mark. On the year he is batting .270 which is certainly passable for a catcher, but his OBP is a sickly .292 which looks slightly better when you compare it to his mere .348 SLG. I-Rod is 193 hits short of becoming the first catcher to ever produce 3,000 hits, but does he have enough left to play two more season to get there?

Trevor Hoffman picked up his 600th save the other night in a truly remarkable display of longevity and effectiveness. Mariano Rivera has 555 career saves, but the next highest hurler who is currently in the big leagues is Billy Wagner (417) who has already stated, emphatically, that this will be his last season. This begs the question – who will be the next member of the 500 save club? The answer might be nobody, especially since the next active hurler is Francisco Cordero with 285 saves.

Back to Hoffman for a moment. He does have a 6.09 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP on the season, numbers that are completely out of place for the HOF bound hurler signaling that his career is at an end. However, if you look beneath the surface you will realize that over his last 29 games that he has posted a 2.63 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. He’s no longer a viable 9th inning option, but that doesn’t mean he couldn’t help someone’s bullpen in a setup role in 2011 if he wished to continue his illustrious career.

By Ray Flowers

Did You Know?

Did you know that I’m tall (6’3″)? Did you know that I wear size 13 shoes? Did you know that I have a rule that I don’t get up before the sun? I know that isn’t the type of did you know that you were planning to read, so before I lull you into a semi-comatose state with more mundane “Ray facts” let’s get to the meat of this piece.

Mike Napoli leads all catchers with 20 homers. Only 12 of those bombs have come as a catcher, eight have come as a first basemen, but you get the point. Moreover, the 20 homers from a catcher eligible player are more than the combined total of Buster Posey (nine) and Joe Mauer (eight) who are hitting a combined .335.

Albert Pujols is pushing for the NL Triple Crown with a .319 average (third – Joey Votto leads the league at .323), 33 homers (first) and 92 RBI (first). He’s also second in the league in OPS at 1.013 (two percentage points behind Votto). But did you know… Albert Pujols also leads all first basemen in the game with 12 steals. And he’s having a down season?

There isn’t a single second basemen, who qualifies for the batting title, who has an OBP of .400 as Robinson Cano has a .390 mark. Can also leads the position with a .326 batting average, a .568 SLG, a .958 OPS, 35 doubles and 87 RBI. Yeah, Cano has been pretty good, which is kinda like saying that Adrianna Lima is hot.

Casey McGehee has been insanely good given his draft day cost. McGehee has hit 20 homers this season which just so happens to be one less than Alex Rodriguez. Moreover, McGehee has more homers than a litany of fantasy stars at the hot corner; Michael Young (19), Kevin Youkilis (19), David Wright (19), Aramis Ramirez (19) and Evan Longoria (18). Casey’s total of 82 RBI is also more than Wright (81), Mark Reynolds (71), Young (70), Ryan Zimmerman (70).
Yunieksy Betancourt has more RBI (61) than any shortstop in the American League. Read that again to make sure you’ve got it. For that matter, any idea who leads NL shortstops in RBI? In another minor miracle, it’s Juan Uribe (66). Let’s keep building on the craziness. I haven’t even mentioned the man who leads all shortstops in RBI – Alex Gonzalez who has 70. He had 50 as a member of the Blue Jays and 20 as a member of the Braves.
Brennan Boesch hit .342 with 12 homers and a .990 OPS in 65 games before the All-Star break. Since that point he has played 37 games and he his hit a sickly .145 with two homers and a .429 OPS. Think about that. He has literally been less than half the player he was in the first half.

Juan Pierre has 49 steals leaving him one short of a fifth season of at least 50 thefts. Since he began his career in 2000, there are only two men that can rival that level of production. Jose Reyes has four 50-steal seasons in that time whereas Carl Crawford has five 50-steal efforts. Mr. Crawford needs nine more steals this season to push his career mark to six 50-steal seasons.

The Giants’ Andres Torres is having a special season. Amongst players who qualify as a right fielder, Torres is sixth in OPS (.866), sixth in OBP (.370) and seventh in SLG (.499). Torres also has scored 71 runs – one more than Justin Upton – and his total of 23 steals makes him one of only five qualifiers at the position with at least 20 (Ichiro Suzuki, Angel Pagan, Will Venable and Ben Zobrist).

Everyone has been talking about Roy Halladay, Adam Wainwright, Ubaldo Jimenez and Josh Johnson, but has anyone noticed who is leading the AL in ERA this season with a 2.26 mark? The answer is none other than Clay Buchholz of the Red Sox. Clay hasn’t given up an earned run in his last three starts, and five times in his last nine trips to the hill he has emerged unscathed. Not bad for a guy who entered the year with a grand total of 36 games under his belt.

Not many have taken notice, but Neftali Feliz is about to make history. After tossing a total of 31 innings last season, Neftali still qualifies for the AL Rookie of the Year award. If that isn’t cool enough, how about the fact that he is a mere seven saves from setting an all-time rookie record. The current mark is 37 held by Kaz Sasaki. Of course, Sasaki was 32 years old when he came to the States after a career of success in Japan, so that number really shouldn’t count – at least in this scribes book.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July 29, 2010

(1) Rangers pick up Jorge Cantu.

(2) Padres bring in Miguel Tejada.

(3) Phillies officially get Roy Oswalt.

(4) Brett Wallace on the move – yet again.

(5) Kerry Wood likely back on Friday. Sorry Chris Perez owners.

(6) Andrew Bailey likely to DL. Michael Wuertz and Craig Breslow to fore?

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Gods Draft

I’m asked to participate in a few “experts” leagues draft each year, and this year was no different. One of those leagues that I was asked to enter was a 12-team, mixed league auction that drafted the other night. Here are the participants in The Battle of the Fantasy Gods Draft.

Mike Kuchera – The Fantasy Man
Scott White – CBS Sports
Tim McLeod – RotoRob
Todd Farino – Fantasy Baseball Search
Jeff Boggis – Fantasy Sports Empires
Chris McDonnell – Fantasy Baseball
Tony Cincotta – Fantasy Pros 911
Paul Greco – Fantasy Pros 911
Grey Albright – Razzball
Ryan Hallam – Fighting Chance Fantasy
Scott Swanay – Fantasy Baseball Sherpa
Ray Flowers – FanBall

* Note. Each team had $260 dollars to spend to field a traditional lineup of 14 hitters (C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, 5 OF, UT) and nine pitchers. There was no reserve draft held, so each team was only comprised of the 23 men drafted, and therefore every player selected will obviously be in the active lineup.

I entered the draft playing on spending $180 on hitting and $80 on pitching. I also planned on being patient as people sometimes blow their wads early.

Here is how my team turned out.

Catcher: Kelly Shoppach ($3), Yadier Molina ($3)
I probably overpaid for Shoppach who I grabbed early, but he brings enough power to be useful. Molina is better than you think, and a safe play in batting average.

First Base: Miguel Cabrera ($35)
One of two big ticket items. Cabrera is about as steady as they come. He and Albert Pujols are the only two men in the game to have hit .290-25-100 in each of the past six seasons.

Second Base: Brian Roberts ($20)
Love this guy, and he was the last of the top tier second basemen to go. Roberts is the only player in baseball history to have 3-straight efforts of 100-runs, 30-steals and 40-doubles

Third Base: Michael Young ($9)
I think this was one of the best bargains of the draft. Doesn’t have the traditional third base pop, but he owns a .302 career average, has scored 80 runs in six of seven seasons, and knocked in 80 runs 5-straight years before falling to 68 last year as injury struck.

Shortstop: Stephen Drew ($7)
Drew is one of just four shortstops to have 10 homers, 65 RBI and 70 runs the past two seasons.

Middle/Corner Infield: Howie Kendrick ($8), Lance Berkman ($18)
Kendrick will hit .300 in his sleep. If he finally makes it out there for 500 at-bats, he could swipe 15 bags while going deep 15 times. Berkman had a down season last year, mostly because of injury. If you give him another 100 plate appearances to reach his normal level, he would have been right at 30 HR and 100 RBI.

Outfield: Jacoby Ellsbury ($29), Shane Victorino ($15), Alfonso Soriano ($10), Jason Kubel ($8), Johnny Damon ($5)
Ellsbury is a beast and has as good a chance as anyone to lead the league in steals. Victorino does everything well, and has been money the past three years. Soriano is a risk, no doubt, but with health 30 homers still seems doable. Kubel is a safe choice. He’ll likely regress a bit from last season’s numbers, but should still be solid. And I have no idea why no one loves Johnny Damon – not only in real life but also in the fantasy game.

Utility: Vlad Guerrero ($1)
Got my guy here. Drafted him really late when others were low on cash. With the Rangers I really think he could still hit .300 with 25 homers, totals he had reached 11-straight years before last season.

Pitcher: Joe Nathan ($16), Josh Beckett ($16), Brian Wilson ($12), James Shields ($10), Scott Baker ($9), Tim Hudson ($8), Chad Qualls ($8), Max Scherzer ($5), Matt Thornton ($3)
Beckett is an ace. In each of the past three seasons he has posted a K/9 rate of at least 8.43 while keeping his WHIP under 1.20. He is the only AL hurler who can make that claim. Shields, Baker and Hudson could all win 15 games with solid ratios, and I think they form a great base behind Beckett. As for Scherzer, he just might be the most dominating hurler of the bunch if he can ever learn to throw strikes. Nathan and Wilson should get me 75 saves. The Qualls selection caused some to snicker, but he could save 30 if healthy. After all, he led baseball with a 6.43 K/BB ratio last year. Thornton may not get saves, but he will provide ratio help, strikeout a ton of batters, and could move into the closers role if/when Bobby Jenks is traded.

Total: Hitting $171, Pitching $87 (I was left with $2).

I darn near hit my pre-draft goals in terms of spending, and put together a strong team. I was especially pleased with my pitching staff considering how long I waited to jump into that mix for starters. Still, are you wondering why I had $2 left over? Let me tell you a story.

I had targeted Vlad for my UT spot late, and I had that spot and one final OF spot open with $11 left. I tried to draft Corey Hart and Nate McLouth, but both times the bidding went to $10. I could have paid that amount, but then (a) I wouldn’t have been able to get Vlad (there is no way anyone could have known he would go for a dollar), and (b) I HATE having $1 players. It’s not like they can’t be productive players, in fact they are often the most productive given how cheaply they come on draft day, but the problem is you have no say in who it ends up being. Think about it. All someone needs is $2 and they can lock you out of the bidding on that player. I want to be able to dictate who is on my team, not be stuck with a player no one else thinks is worth a dollar bid.

In the end I feel good about the club. I will need Damon/Soriano/Guerrero to come through on offense, but given their illustrious track records, I feel pretty strongly that they will. The pitching staff is also a solid group who I would go to battle with in any mixed league.

So there it is. Wish me luck as I battle all year long with the “Gods” of fantasy baseball.

By Ray Flowers

Vlad Signs with Rangers

Vladimir Guerrero has signed what appears to be a 1-year, $5-$6 million deal with the Texas Rangers (there is also said to be a mutual option for 2011). Was it a good move for the Rangers?

By Ray Flowers

All Over the Place

Today was a long flipping day for this kid. As a result, my thoughts are a bit scattered as I write this (perhaps having something to do with the secondhand smoke I inhaled at a Nickelback concert last night – and yes, it wasn’t all cigarette smoke). Still, I hope this entry makes sense. If it doesn’t, perhaps I’ll go “bake” something else tonight. Oh stop it, you know I’m kidding.

Ryan Hanigan is hitting .272 this season, just one point below the .273 mark he has posted in his career. The man has all of two home runs in 224 at-bats this year, a terrible total, but it’s his shockingly pathetic mark of nine RBI this season that is so dreadful. Moreover Hanigan, who owns a superlative 1.29 BB/K mark, saw his average plummet before he ended up on the DL with a concussion (he should return next week). Hanigan was hitting .338 on July 17th only to finish the month on a 4-for-23 spell (.174) which then led into a .143 mark in August. Ugly.

Brandon Phillips isn’t a doctor, and apparently he didn’t pay much attention in school either. I have no ax to grind here, just being honest. Read his owns words. “My wrist is not broken. I didn’t mean to say broken,” Phillips said. I know I didn’t say ‘broken.’ I said ‘fracture.’ I didn’t know ‘fracture’ and ‘broken’ meant the same thing.” Really Brandon? I didn’t know that a homer was the same thing as home run either. Regardless, Phillips’ wrist injury has been part of the reason that he has gone deep only four times in his last 42 games. Still, he is on the verge of yet another 20/20 season with 18 homers and 22 steals on the year.

Speaking of moronic statements, no list would be complete without a reference to Chad Ochocinco who dropped this one on us the other day. “I’m going to carry the whole city just like Kobe (Bryant) carried the (Los Angeles) Lakers and LeBron (James) carried Cleveland. I’ve always wanted to be that guy. Now it’s time for me to do it…” Uh huh Chad. Anyone besides me think that maybe, just maybe, Chad doesn’t belong as the third leg of that triangle that is made up of Kobe and LeBron?

Ted Lilly has looked terrific since returning from surgery allowing just four runs in 27.2 innings to lower his ERA down to 3.17. He may have only 10 victories but with a 1.08 WHIP he has been a fantastic fantasy option.

The Giants bit the bullet and called up Buster Posey since Bengie Molina just can’t get over the hump with his quadriceps injury. The original plan was for the youngster not appear with the big league club this season, and in fact, there was some thought being given to Posey not even being with the Giants next year until after the All-Star break. Those plans were dashed when the Giants astutely realized that they need offense where they can find it, even if it comes from the youngster. Posey doesn’t figure to play more than a couple of times a week at best, Molina should return “soon,” so even in NL-only leagues Posey doesn’t merit much attention at this point. Still, Posey has hit .325 with 18 homers, 80 RBI and a .947 OPS in 422 minor league at-bats this season, so the kid can certainly mash.

You ever get the feeling that no matter what you do, you just don’t have a shot to win? I know that’s how I feel. On one club I have Alex Rios hitting .167 since he joined the White Sox 16 games ago, and my utility hitter, Jim Thome, is now nothing more than a pinch hitter with his trade to the Dodgers. Now comes word that the rock of the left side of my infield, Michael Young, will miss at least a couple of weeks with a strained hammy. He has often beaten estimates as they pertain to his return from injury in the past, but I wonder if it will matter for my squad. I do know this. Young will have to return and produce 15 hits for a seventh straight 185 hit season, and he could fall short of his career best total of 24 home runs as well (he has 22).

Miguel Tejada was hitting .362 on June 2nd making his current .298 batting average simply shocking. Tejada hit .298 in June and .307 in July so that is still perfectly fine, but his .212 mark in August has clearly dashed any hope he had of posting a career best in the batting average category (he hit .330 in ’06 and has a .288 career mark).

By Ray Flowers