On this week’s edition of “The Fantasy Beat”, Justin and Trevor talk about 1st Basemen around the majors who have surprisingly started the 2012 season off well. They also talk about the slumping players at 1st.
Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Eric Hosmer, Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Dunn, Prince Fielder
The Tigers added Prince Fielder this offseason to team with Miguel Cabrera as the most dynamic lefty-righty duo in baseball. With those two aces in the third and fourth holes in the lineup, whomever hits at the top of the order should not only see a major increase in their runs scored total, they should also see plenty of pitches to hit given that pitchers will not want to face Cabrera or Fielder with the bases full of runners. The leadoff man figures to be Austin Jackson, who I profiled in Fowler vs. Jackson, while the #2 man in the order very well could be Brennan Boesch who is the subject of today’s piece.
Boesch hit .256 with 14 homers and 67 RBI as a rookie, and in year two the third round draft choice followed up those numbers with a .286 average, 16 homers and 54 RBI in 26 fewer at-bats. Clearly those aren’t numbers anyone is going to get too excited about (that may be part of the reason that over at Fleaflicker Boesch really hasn’t been added in that many leagues). Still, his spot in the batting order, if he does indeed hold on to the two hole, has some folks pretty darn excited about Boesch. Is that excitement warranted? Let’s take a look.
The most obvious issue with Boesch through two seasons is the Houdini act he’s pulled off in the second half of both seasons. I’m not talking about him pulling a rabbit out of his hat either. I’m talking about making himself vanish into thin air. Check out his two year pre/post All-Star break totals. It’s enough to make even someone with a strong constitution vomit.
2010 1st half: .342/.397/.593 with 12 homers and 49 RBI
2010 2nd half: .163/.237/.222 with two homers and 18 RBI
2011 1st half: .306/.360/.490 with 12 homers and 44 RBI
2011 2nd half: .219/.288/.368 with four homers and 10 RBI
Maybe we’ll look back on those numbers 10 years from now and get a good laugh, but for now those numbers scare the bejezus out of me. Here are the combined numbers.
1st half: .321-24-93-91-56 with a .911 OPS
2ns half: .182-6-28-33-6 with a .526 OPS
In the first half he’s Matt Holliday but in the second half he is Ramon Santiago. You have to be concerned with those two sets of numbers, at least until he goes out and does something in the second half of the season. Again, it might be a sample size issue – he could hit .300 with 15 homers in the second half this season – but for now the numbers are scarier than a Wes Craven flick.
Boesch is a player that struggles against right-handed pitching. Oh he’s not awful with a .254/.315/.425 slash line, but oddly, he is stronger against left-handed pitching (since he’s a left-handed batter) with a .319/.380/.471 slash line. Think of it like this. Versus righties he is Johnny Damon while he’s Dustin Pedroia versus lefties. Given that most hurlers are obviously right-handed, that’s another level of concern.
Some other facts.
Boesch doesn’t strike out very often, but since he also doesn’t walk a lot his career 0.41 BB/K ratio is just a teenie bit below the league average. Moreover, his OBP of .330 in his two seasons is only four points better than the league average during that time. It should also be noted that though he is looked at as a potential power bat in some circles that his .436 slugging percentage is only .010 points better than the league average for outfielders. In addition, Boesch doesn’t hit too many balls in the air, his GB/FB ratio of 1.12 is smack dab on the league average, while his 10.7 percent HR/F rate is only about a percentage point high. Boesch also has shown little stolen base speed with 12 steals in two seasons, an if he does indeed hit second in the Tigers’ order you can’t think he is going to be getting the green light very often with the two thumpers coming up. As for his ability to help in the batting average category he did show a .027 point improvement in year two, but through 892 at-bats he has hit just .269. Moreover, his .306 BABIP mark is just about league average, and so far he hasn’t been anywhere near the league average in the line drive category with a career mark of just 16.6 percent (the league average is 19-20 percent).
To summarize, Boesch has roughly league average ability in his BB/K rate, GB/FB ratio and HR/F ratio. He’s also produced, roughly, a league average batting mark, OBP and SLG. He also doesn’t steal many bases or hit that many line drives. In short, through two seasons, Boesch hasn’t shown himself to be anything other than a guy that’s going to need 550 at-bats to be a mixed league option because nothing he does stands out. If he can spend the entire year hitting second in the Tigers order that could all change. It could also change if he doesn’t turn into an absolute weakling in the second half of the season. However, pay close attention to the fact that, up until now, Boesch hasn’t shown himself to possesses on outstanding skill. Be careful of expecting too much from the third year player.
By Ray Flowers
For the last few years I’ve been fortunate enough to be invited to participate an experts league with the crew from KFFL.com. The league, called K-BAD (KFFL’s Baseball Analysis Draft), pits 12 experts against one another in a 12 team mixed league draft with 28 man rosters. The participants for this years event are as follows:
Doug Anderson, RotoExperts
Howard Bender, Fangraphs
Mark Chamberlain, Baseball Sharks
Yours Truly
Steve Gardner, USA Today
Joe Hamrahi, Baseball Prospectus
Tim Heaney, KFFL
Bill Macey, Baseball HQ
Nicholas Minnix, KFFL
Jeff Paur, RTSports
Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times
Pasko Varnica, Mastersball
*For full bios on all 12 of the participants click on this link to K-BAD Bios.
One of the unique aspects of this draft is that the participants are asked to record their thoughts as they work through the slow draft (it’s done over days while all of us pound out our daily work). As a result, KFFL presents a unique look into the mind of an expert to expose “experts” thoughts and decision making process at the time each of the selections are made. For the full 28 round analysis of the draft, from all the experts, simply click on the link to K-Bad Round Analysis.
Since I’m sure you’re all riveted as to how my team came together, I thought I would reproduce the results of my squad in a couple of articles here at BaseballGuys. So without further ado, here is how the draft played out for me.
Round 1: Miguel Cabrera
Albert Pujols was a strong consideration, as was Troy Tulowitzki, but ultimately I decided on Cabrera for three reasons: the addition of Prince Fielder, the fact that Cabrera can hit .340, and the soon to be third base eligibility he will pick up.
Round 2: Matt Holliday
Overlooked this year by some, I have little doubt he’ll return to something like a .300-25-100 line in St. Louis even with Albert Pujols out of the mix. Was really hoping that Andrew McCutchen would fall to me at this spot, but missed out on him by a few picks.
Round 3: Kevin Youkilis
Really didn’t love this pick. Was tempted to go with another outfielder, but settled for the stability that Youkilis should bring. Plus, everyone is likely to go heavy on third base, so the next time I pick I’ll be hard pressed to find a comparable talent to Youkilis.
Round 4: B.J. Upton
I was hoping that Ben Zobrist would make it back to me. Obviously he didn’t. I considered Michael Bourn but went with the better all-around performer in Upton. With Cabrera/Youkilis/Holliday I should be able to handle Upton’s poor average.
Round 5: Felix Hernandez
I don’t usually go for pitching early, but I’d bet the 5th and 6th rounds are going to be filled with starters being grabbed. There’s nothing wrong with grabbing a guy like Hernandez that should give me 200 Ks and 220-innings of elite work as my staff anchor. Also considered Zack Greinke.
Round 6: Howie Kendrick
A perennial option to hit .300, he’s also likely to go 10/10, possibly even 15/15. I was tempted to take Weeks, but look at Week’s games played mark – an average of just 107 games a season the past five years. Give me Kendrick who also has OF eligibility.
Round 7: Shane Victorino
Solid, consistent, across the board producer. That’s Shane Victorino. I was tempted by Shin-Soo Choo here, but I’m worried about Choo returning to .300, and I don’t know if he’s going to swipe 20 bases anymore either. Shane might be slightly boring to some, but he’s a fantastic 3rd outfielder.
Round 8: Mark Reynolds
People might laugh at this selection, but we all know that third base starts to thin out pretty quickly, and Reynolds covers me at first base as well. His average is woeful, but he is one of only five men to have 30 homers, 85 RBI and 75 runs scored each of the past three years.
Round 9: Derek Jeter
Boring? Yes. Old? Yes. Declining skill set? Yes. So why take him? After the selection of Reynolds with my last pick, I need the .290 average that Jeter should bring. There are more exciting options left at shortstop, but I’m looking for some average stability.
Round 10: Ricky Romero
It’s the time in the draft to start building my pitching staff. Romero may not be elite, but he’ll fit in nicely behind King Felix as I have two power sinking fastball types. Considered going closer, but I’ll wait there.
Round 11: Josh Beckett
I considered Matt Garza and Brandon Morrow here. Garza is as consistent as they come, and Morrow has massive upside, but I split the difference and grabbed Beckett.
Round 12: Brandon Morrow
There might be safer pitchers left on the board, but there are none with 250 K potential. If he keeps the walks down again he could shave a run off his ERA.
Round 13: Dustin Ackley
I was tempted to go with a fourth outfielder here and if I didn’t already have three third base eligible guys (Reynolds, Youkilis and Cabrera) I’d have taken Martin Prado.
Round 14: Sergio Santos
The run on closers commenced, and I jumped in the mix. Was tempted to an address my catcher’s spot which is open, but I went with that huge arm of Santos.
In PART II I’ll continue my look at the selections I made before giving an overall wrap up.
By Ray Flowers
“Any list of the biggest failures in 2011 has to start with Adam Dunn (.159-11-42 in 496 at-bats. I still can’t believe he was that atrocious). However, a teammate of Dunn’s also has to be in the top-10 [Alex Rios]…” That was my opening to my Alex Rios Player Profile from back in November of 2011. Today I’ll complete that thought by discussing the most pathetic performer of 2011 – Mr. Adam Dunn.
Some history.
From 2004-2010 Dunn hit at least 38 homers each year. Only one man in history has a run of more than 7-straight years of hitting 38 or more homers each season. It’s not Babe Ruth who tied with Dunn at seven (1926-32), or Barry Bonds who never did it more than five years in a row (2000-04). The answer to this riddle is actually Rafael Palmeiro (1995-2003).
From 2004-10 Dunn had at least 92 RBI each year. That’s well short of the record of 13-straight such seasons held by Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx and Alex Rodriguez. Still, only five men were able to hit that total each year from 2004-10: Albert Pujols, Arod, Mark Teixeira, Miguel Cabrera and Dunn.
From 2004-10 Dunn scored at least 79 runs each season. Only six others joined Dunn in that group: Bobby Abreu, Teixeira, Pujols, Cabrera, Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon.
All told, how many big leaguer posted a line of 38 homers, 92 RBI and 79 runs scored each year from 2004-10? The answer is one – Adam Dunn.
So what the hell happened in 2011 to the then 32 year old slugger? Some thoughts.
Maybe he wasn’t totally comfortable in his new home in Chicago?
Maybe the pressure of a big money deal got to him (4-years, $56 million)?
Maybe he lost confidence when he struggled?
Maybe health woes, like his appendicitis, ruined his timing?
Maybe he didn’t like being the DH? He hit mere .176 with a. 621 OPS in 81 such games (to be honest though, those numbers were better than his overall totals of .159 and .569).
Let’s get past the maybe’s and look at the raw data.
As I’ve laid out, there wasn’t a more consistent power hitter in the game than Dunn. At 32 years of age, in a ballpark that benefits hitters, there was zero reason to expect a collapse in 2011. In fact, you’d be hard pressed to roll the calendar back 12 months and find anyone who had a bad thing to say about Dunn as most expected the move to Chicago to lead to at least, at the very worst, a replication, of his 2010 effort (.260-38-103-85). What happened then?
Did he walk less than normal? Nope. His 15.1 percent walk rate was pretty much a match for his 16.2 percent career rate.
Did he strike out more than normal? Heck yes he did. A career 27.6 K rate is terrible, but last season that number grew to epic proportions as it ended up at 35.7 percent. That was only the second time in his career that the mark was over 29 percent.
Did his hit type change? Not if you judge him by his GB/FB rate which was 0.68, a near identical match to his career rate of 0.71 percent. As for his line drive rate it was 20.0 percent. Not only was that mark his third best since 2003, it was also above his 19.6 career rate. So he hit as many grounders, liners and fly balls as normal. Wait, what? I know, it makes no sense does it? Dunn was pretty much the same hitter as always in terms of these three categories. The real issue though was two-fold. (1) His BABIP shrunk to a career worst .240 (career .292). 2011 was only the second time since 2004 that his BABIP mark was under .276. Given a career norm in the line drive category, that dip in BABIP really isn’t explainable, at least not simply (a loss of bat speed, bad luck, etc.). (2) For each season from 2003-10, Dunn had produced a HR/F ratio of 20.8 percent. In 2011 that number dropped to 9.6 percent. To state is another way, Dunn went from being elite to league average overnight. That just doesn’t happen.
Given the totality of his career, his age, and his home ballpark, I find it nearly impossible to predict another outage in 2012. The question is, how much will Dunn bounce back? Admittedly I’m a big fan of the Big Donkey, but I think the data leads to that point of view. If I had to put a floor on his production I’d think 2002 (.249-26-71-84). However, I’m not ruling out a return to 35-90-90 levels because I really cannot explain what the hell went wrong in 2011. Maybe he ticked off a practitioner of the dark arts who put a whammy on him. I’m not going to draft Dunn as my starter at first base, but if falls out of the top-20 at first base, like he’s currently ranked at Fleaflicker, then sign up Mr. Dunn for my squad.
By Ray Flowers
I know that no one reads anymore. In fact, I’m positive about that fact. I cannot tell you how many times a day the following occurs at the Baseball Guys’ Twitter Page.
I post a tweet. Example. “Albert Pujols is being paid $250 million over the next three years. Is he worth it? www. Pujols-Making…” So my sentence describes what I’m talking about, and then the link takes readers to the full story. Should be pretty simple, right? Someone then replies to me ‘will Pujols’ new home in California hurt his homer output?’ Why is that question a problem?
Because it clearly points out that the person didn’t bother to click on the link which, for three paragraphs, describes the impact that the Angels park could have on Pujols’ power. You think this is me just being me and bitching about something that rarely occurs? Not at all. This happens to me at least 3-5 times every single day. At least. People just don’t read anymore.
So why do I bring that up the fact that people hate to read? Because I’m going to trust that if you’ve gotten this far that you are one of those rare people that actually understands the value of reading something and not just scanning over it for 10 seconds (plus I just had to vent, sorry about that). I wrote about Wins Shares last year in Win Shares: 2010 Leaders, I’m merely going to quote myself in what follows for the description of what Wins Shares is (I know that’s lazy, but I did such a spectacular job last year, why mess with perfection?). Do I need a citation for my own words? Jeez, it’s been a while since college.
WHAT ARE WIN SHARES?
Win Shares attempts to measure how many wins a hitter or pitcher has personally notched for his team in the standings. Win Shares puts all players on one continuum meaning hitters and pitchers are all lumped together.
Win Shares are handed out based on a players impact at helping his team win games. Unlike other new-school stats, Win Shares look quite explicitly at the standings. The team’s number of Win Shares is equal to its win total times three. Eighty team wins gives 240 win shares to be spread amongst people on that team. Therefore, it doesn’t matter if a player is on a team that wins 95 or 75 games – they should still be rewarded in an equitable manner.
Win Shares is complicated to figure out, and has negatives. Bill James, the creator, realized some limitations in Win Shares and later invented “Loss Shares” because Wins Shares are only positive. Win Shares has also been replaced in most people’s minds by a measure like WAR (Wins Above Replacement level), but Win Shares was the first systematic attempt to put all aspects of baseball performance into one number that really caught on (James wrote about it in Win Shares, a massive 728 page book that was published in 2002).
To put the numbers you are about to review in context, here is a brief key for seasonal performance.
All-Star: 20+ Win Shares
MVP Level: 30+
Historic level: 40+
With that brief lead in, here are the 2011 leaders according to Win Shares.
2011 LEADERS – HITTERS
38 – Miguel Cabrera
37 – Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp
36 – Jose Bautista
34 – Jacoby Ellsbury
33- Prince Fielder, Joey Votto,
30 – Lance Berkman, Robinson Cano
29 – Miguel Montero
28 – Ben Zobrist and Andrew McCutchen
2011 LEADERS – PITCHERS
27 – Justin Verlander
24 – Jered Weaver
23 – Clayton Kershaw
22 – Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee
20 – James Shields, Ricky Romero, C.J. Wilson, Ian Kennedy
19 – CC Sabathia
18 – Dan Haren, Doug Fister
17 – Craig Kimbrel, Cole Hamels
By Ray Flowers
You remember back to March when I gave away all my position player rankings for free, right? For those of you who want to revisit my greatest hits, here’s where you would go to get all my rankings for hitters – 2011: BBGuys Hitter Capsules.
I’m nothing if not accountable, so I’ll review my top-10 predictions at each position as well as point out my biggest “hit” outside of the top-10 and my biggest “bust.” This should be fun.
2011 FIRST BASE Top-10
1 Albert Pujols
2 Joey Votto
3 Mark Teixeira
4 Miguel Cabrera
5 Prince Fielder
6 Adrian Gonzalez
7 Kevin Youkilis
8 Adam Dunn
9 Ryan Howard
10 Paul Konerko
Pujols‘ run at history, which I wrote about in On the Cusp, fell just short as he ended the year with a .299 batting average, 37 homers, 99 RBI and 105 runs scored. An impressive season for a mortal, but a disappointing effort for Pujols.
Votto wasn’t as good as he was during his MVP effort but it was pretty damn close. He posted a .324-37-113-106-16 line in 2010 and followed it up with .309-29-103-101-8 this season.
Teixeira blasted 39 homers and drove in 111 runs for the Yankees giving them the power they expected. Unfortunately he scored “only” 90 runs, and for the second straight season he hit under .260 as he limped home to a career worst .248 mark.
Cabrera was as he always is, fantastic. I admit it, my concerns over his drinking issues were apparently unfounded. I touched on that in Braun: Best of the Bunch.
Fielder was second in the NL in homers (38), RBI (120) and OBP (.415) while he was third in OPS (.994). Someone is going to get awfully rich this offseason.
Gonzalez proved me half right, and half wrong. You can learn more by reading Player Profiles: 2011 Review.
Youkilis was limited all year by injury and his final line looks pretty bad (.258-17-80-68-3). Still, he was on pace to hit more than 20 homers with 100 RBI while his OBP was .373, not bad for a down season. He should be at full health next season.
Dunn fell off more than virtually any player in recent memory (Andruw Jones was close a few years back). Dunn was unquestionably the biggest failure in the game in 2011 as he hit .159 with 11 homers over 415 at-bats. I literally felt a sickness in my stomach well up writing that sentence.
Howard hit his 33 homers and had 116 RBI, but he also hit a mere .253 and scored just 81 runs. He could easily miss the start of the 2012 season as well since he ruptured his Achilles tendon on the final play of the season for the Phillies.
Konerko was strong yet again hitting .300 with 31 homers and 105 RBI. He has no speed, it’s almost surprising that he stole a base, and despite playing 149 games with a .388 OBP he scored only 69 runs for the White Sox.
Hit: Freddie Freeman #25
Freeman took a while to get going, if we remove his .225 April he hit .293 the rest of the way, an in the end he batted .282 with 21 homers and 76 RBI for the Braves. Hey, it’s first base where everyone can hit. It was hard to find a guy who really stood out past the top-15.
Bust: Dunn
U-n-b-e-l-i-e-v-a-b-l-e.
By Ray Flowers
On March 16th, I know most of you can’t remember as far back as September 16th, but trust me on March 16th I wrote a piece that I titled Who is #3? At the time there was a pretty general consensus that Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez were the top-2 options in the fantasy game. Proving yet again that this is far from an exact science, Pujols had a solid but unspectacular season for him (.299-37-99-105-9), whereas Ramirez struggled mightily before finally succumbing to shoulder surgery (.243-10-45-55-20 in 92 games).
Since there was no consensus as to who should have been drafted #3 overall I went through a bunch of names up for consideration at that spot in the above linked piece before I settled on Ryan Braun. Before I get to Braun and what was obviously a spectacular call by me (I’m so modest), let me list the reasons why I was concerned with the other options, and then give the figures to back up what I thought.
“Some think it should be Miguel Cabrera. He worries me because of his off the field issues.”
Looks like the boozing just isn’t an issue after all. He hit a robust .344, and though he hit 30 homers with 105 RBI the homer total was a five year low while his RBI total was the worst he’s ever had in eight full seasons.
Troy Tulowitzki: “…I’m troubled by the fact that he has played less than 125 games in two of the past three years .“
He played more games than I thought he might, 143, but injuries limited him to three year lows in runs scored (81), steals (nine), OBP (.372) and SLG (.544). He still had a great year though.
Carlos Gonzalez: “…hit .289 with eight homers on the road last year and he’s only had one season of significance in the big leagues.”
He was even worse in 2011 on the road hitting .252 with a .757 OPS. He still had a great year considering he played in 127 games (.295-26-92-92-20), but everything predictably regressed.
Evan Longoria: “ I think he’s the top third baseman this year, but I don’t think third base is as shallow as some think.”
50/50 here. Third base was even more shallow than we thought as everyone was injured at one point or another. With a late season power surge he finished the year with 31 homers and 99 RBI to place himself amongst the best at the position, but he also hit a career worst .244 and stole a career low three bags.
“What about Joey Votto or Robinson Cano? Nope.”
Both players had great efforts, no if’s, and’s or but’s about it, but neither rose to the level of being the #3 selection.
Votto: .309-29-103-101-8 with a .947 OPS
Cano: .302-28-118-104-8 with a .882 OPS
“Roy Halladay? Don’t get crazy on me. “
Halladay was typically grand, but he may not have even been the best pitcher on his own team (Cliff Lee posted virtually identical numbers).
All of that leads to Ryan Braun. Here are the points I made with Braun (you can get more detail from the initial piece).
(1) Consistency/Across the board production.
For the 5th straight year he hit better than .285 with more than 25 homers, 97 RBI, 91 runs and 14 steals. He produced a 5×5 line of .332-33-111-109-33 in what was his best season of a stupendous career.
(2) Health.
The previous three seasons Braun had appeared in 151 or more games. He missed out in 2011, but I’ll take the 150 total he played in every year.
(3) Upside.
I mentioned in the previous piece that if you took the career bests for Braun in the main five fantasy categories you’d end up with a season of .324-37-114-113-20. How did he do in 2011? He bettered the average at .332. He fell just short in the homer, RBI and runs scored categories with 33, 111 and 109. Still, that’s pretty damn close ain’t it? The kicker is that he went for 33 steals, just one less than he posted in 2009 and 2010.
Braun wasn’t just the best choice as the #3 selection this year, he actually ended the year as the second best fantasy performer behind only Matt Kemp (.324-39-126-115-40). And you wanted to drafted Troy Tulowitzki…
By Ray Flowers
(1) Andrew McCutchen one steal from joining the 20/20 club.
(2) Miguel Cabrera is simply phenomenal yet again.
(3) Carlos Lee on fire of late, RBI streak continues.
(4) Mark Buehrle is boring, but the guy is really good.
(5) Luke Hochevar pitching very well in the second half.
(6) Nick Swisher on fire, six homers in seven games. Has he lived up to my expectations? See 2011 Player Profile: Nick Swisher.
(7) Jose Reyes back from injury while Nelson Cruz is out yet again.
By Ray Flowers
Photo by Benjamin Kabek
There is pretty much a consensus this year that Albert Pujols should go off the board first overall, and Hanley Ramirez seems to be locked in as the #2 selection in most peoples minds. After that, let the games begin.
Some think it should be Miguel Cabrera. He worries me because of his off the field issues.
Some think it should be Troy Tulowitzki because of his massive production from a scarce position (shortstop). I’m troubled by the fact that he has played less than 125 games in two of the past three years.
Some say Carlos Gonzalez. The guy hit .289 with eight homers on the road last year and he’s only had one season of significance in the big leagues.
Some say Evan Longoria. I think he’s the top third baseman this year, but I don’t think third base is as shallow as some think (not if guys like Mark Reynolds and Pablo Sandoval are still on the board after 125 names have been called out).
What about Joey Votto or Robinson Cano? Nope.
Roy Halladay? Don’t get crazy on me.
I think the clear option at #3 overall is Ryan Braun, a guy who has an ADP of about nine. Here is my argument for why Braun should be #3 (in fact, I’ll go you one further and say that I think Carl Crawford should be taken 4th overall – see the Top-300 for 2011).
THE CASE FOR BRAUN
(1) Consistency
In four big league seasons, Braun has never hit less than .285.
He has never hit fewer than 25 homers.
He has never had fewer than 97 RBI.
He has never scored less than 91 runs.
He has never stolen less than 14 bases.
That means in four seasons in the majors Braun has never produced a batting line of less than .285-25-97-91-14. Last year there were only four men in all of baseball who hit all of the marks (Braun, Pujols, Votto and CarGo), and those are the four year lows for Braun.
(2) Across the Board production
I went through the numbers above but just so it registers like it should…
Over the past four years there have been only 16 seasons of .285-25-97-91-14. Braun has fully a quarter of them meaning every other player in baseball has a grand total of 12 such seasons, or on average just three a year. Moreover, only three other men in the game have had two such seasons the past four years: Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez and David Wright.
(3) Health
Braun played only 113 games as a rookie, but that was because he was called up during the season from the minors. The past three years he has dealt with a myriad of bumps and bruises, but each of those years he has appeared in at least 151 games. The last three years only 12 players have appeared in at least 151 games each campaign. It doesn’t matter how great you are, if you aren’t on the field your overall production just won’t stack up the elites of the game.
(4) Upside
Braun has just under four full seasons in the big leagues and he is only 27 years old. I don’t buy into the “27 year old breakout” hype, but the fact is that Braun could easily still have more to give at the dish. That is particularly intriguing given that his best 5×5 numbers thus far would result in a 5×5 effort of .324-37-114-113-20. Do you know how many such seasons have been produced in the 20th century? The answer is none. Moreover, over the last twenty years those five marks have only been reached in one season on three occasions: Ellis Burks (1996), Larry Walker (1997) and Barry Bonds (1993).
You could raise arguments such as position scarcity and the fact that Braun has seen his ground ball rate rise substantially the past two years as reasons to pass on Braun at the number three overall spot, but to me it’s pretty clear that he would seem to have the least risk of any of the players who are consistently going in the top-10 after Pujols and Hanley are off the board. In my mind that is a huge factor that should be taken into consideration when you think about who you are going to take if you have the #3 spot on draft day.
By Ray Flowers
I’m sitting here staring out the window. We’re all kind of in no-man’s land right now. Playoff football is ongoing, but fantasy football is basically over for most people (those playoff leagues just don’t do it for me). I’m one of the few people who actually plays fantasy hockey, and likewise there is a small but dedicated group that plays fantasy basketball, but we are in the minority. So where does that leave most fantasy sports addicts? It leaves you begging for the fantasy baseball season to begin. It’s about a month until pitchers and catchers report, and February is usually when the heavy lifting really starts with fantasy baseball, though to be honest, I’ve literally been writing about the 2011 fantasy baseball season since October. I know, I have a disease don’t I?
I’ll also be attending the FSTA Trade Association meeting in Las Vegas this weekend, so if you’re gonna be there let me know and we’ll grab a beer (or a fruity drink with an umbrella in it).
PLAYER RATINGS
Over at ESPN they have a whole section devoted to different player rating systems: Inside Edge, The Baseball Encyclopedia, ESPN Rating and Elias. Here are a few things that jumped out at me from those rankings.
Miguel Cabrera was the top player in 2010 according to two of the systems (ESPN and Elias). The man widely regarded as the best player in baseball – Albert Pujols – was second on the ESPN scale and came in at 6th in the Elias Rankings.
According to Inside Edge, the best player in baseball last year was Josh Johnson. I don’t know what the formula is for this measure, but when your top-5 includes Johnson, Cliff Lee and Paul Konerko, consider me dubious as to it’s value.
The top-3 performers according to the Baseball Encyclopedia were Troy Tulowitzki, Pujols and Robinson Cano. How could a guy who appeared in only 122 games last season be the best player in baseball?
You can check out the rankings for yourself at the link above, but here is their top-10 based on the average ranking of the four systems:
1- Albert Pujols
2- Miguel Cabrera
3- Roy Halladay
4- Joey Votto
5- Felix Hernandez
6- Jose Bautista (seriously)
7- Paul Konerko (gulp)
8- Ubaldo Jimenez
9- Adam Wainwright
10- Josh Hamilton
PLAYER PROFILE – LANCE BERKMAN
I wrote about the new Cardinals outfielder in Breaking Down: Lance Berkman. Here is a brief synopsis of what I said there.
“Currently sporting an ADP in the 300′s, it would seem that Berkman is in a good position to far surpass the value he is currently being assigned. It would be wise to avoid expecting a return to the salad days for Berkman, but if he slips far enough in drafts he is well worth taking a shot on as a mutli-position guy who will hit behind, arguably, the two best right-handed hitters in the National League.”
PAVANO STAYS WITH TWINS
After flirting with signing a big money, 1-year deal with the Yankees (how desperate are the Bronx Bombers when you realize they contemplated bringing back a guy who won nine games over four years with the club back in 2005-08?), Pavano decided he liked where he was signing a 2-year, $16.5 million deal to remain with the Twins. I predicted back on December 6th, 2010 that Pavano would hit it big as the second best starting pitcher on the market in Around the Horn: Hot Stove, Dec.6, 2010. I missed on that one. I’m surprised that in this market, where middle relievers were getting 3-year deals at more than $4 million a season, that Pavano was only able to lock down a two year deal.
JUST BECAUSE…
One of the greatest set of lines in movie history thanks to Ron Burgundy.
By Ray Flowers
The FSWA winner of the Best Baseball Series of 2011, BaseballGuys.com is the only source you will need for your fantasy baseball knowledge. OK, you might need other sources, but BaseballGuys.com should be on your daily list of must reads for the insights an analysis it provides on the world of baseball.
The co-host of The Drive on Sirius 210, XM 87 (M-F, 5-8 PM EDT), Ray Flowers has spent years squirreled away studying the inner workings of the fantasy game to the detriment of his personal life (yep ladies, that means he is still single if you are interested). Specializing in baseball, football and hockey, some consider him an expert in all three. Ray's work can also be found as feature writer for: Daily Joust, Fantasy Alarm, Rotoinfo, Rotowire and Sports Illustrated.
You can contact Ray through e-mail at fantasyfandom@yahoo(dot)com or on Twitter.
