Around the Horn: April 2, 2013

(1) Talk about the 2013 fantasy baseball season, LABR, Tout, SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio.

(2) Carlos Gomez overdrafted in 2013?

(3) Players who very well could exceed their draft day cost:

C Jason Castro, 1B Brandon Belt, 2B Kelly Johnson, 3B Manny Machado, SS Stephen Drew, OF Michael Brantley, OF Chris Young, OF Justin Maxwell, OF Franklin Gutierrez

SP James McDonald, SP Edinson Volquez, SP Vance Worley, RP Jake McGee, RP Mike Adams, RP Rhiner Cruz.

By Ray Flowers

 

2013 – Tout Wars

Tout Wars is one of the two exclusive fantasy baseball events each year (the other is LABR which I participated in earlier in March). Thanks to the powers that be I was invited to New York to put together a squad in Tout Wars for the second straight year. Below, you will see how my team came together, and I’ll give some thoughts about the entire weekend, which by the way, was a total blast (gotta be the greatest group of folks anyone can work with).

15 team mixed league auction.
14 hitters (2 C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, 5 OFs, UT)
nine pitchers (any mix of starters and relievers)
$260 salary cap

* This league is using OBP in place of batting average. It’s still a 5×5 league, just with that one change.

* Numbers in () are prices paid for each player.

* This league also has a shallow bench, only four spots. However, there is also an unlimited amount of DL spots beyond the four bench spots meaning a player on the DL does not take up a bench spot – i.e. players who start the year on the DL can be replaced with players off the waiver-wire.

C: John Jaso ($6), Tyler Flowers (4)
1B: Eric Hosmer (17)
2B: Howie Kendrick (12), Emilio Bonifacio (6), Daniel Murphy (Reserve)
3B: Martin Prado (14), Manny Machado (6), Pablo Sandoval (14), Alex Rodriguez (Res)
SS: Derek Jeter (7)
OF: Carlos Gonzalez (36), Bryce Harper (33), Domonic Brown (6), Jon Jay (4), Cameron Maybin (6), Billy Hamilton (Res)

STARTING PITCHERS: Brandon Morrow (13), Cliff Lee (23), Zack Greinke (14), Tim Hudson (4), Ryan Dempster (1), Edinson Volquez (Res)

RELIEF PITCHERS: Sergio Romo (16), Joel Hanrahan (11), Mike Adams (3), Jose Veras (4)

Jaso is a solid hitter, and in an OBP league he’s a lot better option than in “normal” leagues (he had an elite .394 OBP last season). Flowers an I are not related but can you blame me for drafting my namesake? He has power and his OBP should be about league average.

Hosmer has had a killer spring, and you know I expect a bounce back (see his Player Profile). Machado may not have a strong OBP, but the rest of his game should be very solid for the price. Sandoval has that elbow issue, so there is uncertainty. I could have used my money elsewhere (another arm perhaps, see below for more on that), but when I saw him sitting there for such a cheap price I had to take the plunge. A-Rod goes to the DL, and I’ll grab another player.

Kendrick will never get to the level some hoped for, but he’s always solid across the board (see his Player Profile). He does take a bit of a hit in an OBP league though. Murphy was a nice reserve round add. I’ll be able to place him on the DL and add another player (a shortstop), to fill out my lineup. Wait, how does Emilio qualify at second? In Tout there is a 15 game per position requirement, not 20. Emilio appeared in 15 games at second base last season. Prado also qualifies in the outfield, and by this point I think everyone knows I’m a big fan.

Jeter isn’t great, and it looks like he’ll miss the first week of the season, but for $7 who is gonna complain? Not I.

CarGo on my team everyone understands, but Harper? I like Harper, but I’m not predicting a top-10 season this year like others are. “So Ray, why is he on your team then?’ I tossed out Harper at $33 and then… crickets. I was very surprised that no one said $34. Did I miscalculate? Certainly seems that way, though it’s not an obnoxious bid (Stanton went for $34, the same Price as Justin Upton to make me feel a little better, but when other 20/20 types in the outfield went for much less – Choo $25, Cespedes $24, Heyward $31 – let’s just say I wasn’t overly excited). There is no doubt Harper has the talent to justify that bid, just wouldn’t have been my first choice. Brown has had a tremendous spring, and there aren’t any more talented outfielders that went for less than $6. Jay isn’t exciting to most, but he is a .300 career hitter who had a .373 OBP with 19 steals last season in 117 games played. Maybin will struggle in OBP, but his wrist seems healthy. There’s a 15/40 season lurking here. Hamilton was a total shot in the dark reserve add. Normally I wouldn’t have done that, but since I have two injured guys I can place on the DL, I figured I could add Hamilton at little risk.

Yes, that was me at 2 AM at Foley’s shooting a double shot of Jameson. Take that Kay Adams. That’s right, the Oracle doesn’t just drink fruity drinks (check out the shocked look on Kay’s face in this photo… that’s the Oracle on the left and Kyle Elfrink on the right). Well, I do most of the time…

I love Cliff Lee. He’s a top-5 option in my mind. He gave me six wins last year in Tout, but I’m doubling down on him this season. I might have paid a dollar or two more when compared to other similar arms, but I feel like I made that back when I got Greinke for just $14. Morrow for a dollar less has a lot of up as well. That’s a pretty strong trio in my mind. Add in veterans like Hudson and Dempster and that’s a solid core. I also felt really good about Volquez in the reserves. He had an ERA under three with a WHIP in the 1.20′s and darn near a K per inning in his home starts last season.

As usual, I like my pen. I snagged Adams with an early bid, and he’s a dominant arm when healthy. Romo might have gone for a dollar or two more than he should have, but I’ve long said he’s a top-10 reliever in baseball if he can stay healthy. Some are worried about the varied performance of Hanrahan in Spring. I’m not. Jose Veras is no great shakes but he’s been over 10 Ks per nine the past three years and he appears to be the Astros main option in the 9th.

Some final thoughts.

My team has a ton of speed but might be a bit thin on power. I’ll address that at some point on the trade market once I get clear on the steals.

My staff needs another arm. I’ll almost certainly add one in the first waiver period with one of my two DL spot openings (I will use the other spot to get a shortstop to help cover until Jeter returns).

I usually limp slowly into drafts, but I went a bit bigger than normal thanks to the Harper add. That was unfortunate too. This draft would have played perfectly into my hands if I done my normal start slow, wade into the water slowly thing. As it was, I spent big early on some folks and that meant in the middle rounds, when a lot of “my guys” were going for less than market value, I just didn’t have the cash to spend (this was particularly evident on the hill – Lincecum for $10, Gallardo $15, Zimmerman $13, Wilson $8). I really hope I don’t regret not having the cash to spend on Lincecum. Hell, if I had gotten that foursome for $46 I would have felt flipping fantastic.

Best Picks: Bonifacio/Maybin for $6 each, Greinke for $14.
Worst Pick: Harper for $33 (only because it wasn’t my plan, not cause I hate the player).

Click on the link to see the 2013 Mixed Tout results.

By Ray Flowers

Deadline Deals

The trade deadline came and went. Some big names were dealt while others need not change their address labels for their mail. A few thoughts on some of the bigger names that were dealt are below.

Mike Adams, Rangers: I keep saying it – there isn’t a better right-handed reliever in baseball (1.12 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 5.44 K.BB).

Erik Bedard, Red Sox: As injury prone as any player in the game, Bedard is nearly always successful when on the hill. Just 4-7 his record figures to do a 180 with the Red Sox offense behind him. He had better pitch well though, and stay healthy, as Clay Buchholz (back) is likely done for the year.

Carlos Beltran, Giants: He has only two hits in 17 at-bats with the Giants but he figures to settle right in and be the best run producer on the club.

Michael Bourn, Braves: You know you suck, and yes I’m talking to you Astros, when you deal the best base stealer in the league (39 thefts), a guy who is hitting .303 and one who is also under contract for 2012 (arbitration eligible). His value goes up with a better lineup around him.

Doug Fister, Tigers: This guys a solid big leaguer. He has a strong 1.17 WHIP, while his ERA is also good at 3.33. You can’t blame him for his 3-12 record since the Mariners offense is just pathetic, but Fister offers little to excite in the fantasy game. He goes out and give you six innings, he’s actually done it 14-straight starts though only nine of those outings fall into the “quality start” category. His value goes up slightly with the deal since he might actually pick up a few wins.

Rafael Furcal, Cardinals: How in the world is Furcal hitting .196? Pathetic. He has hit better since the All-Star break at .217, but that’s like saying your traded in your Yugo for a Festiva. He’s still got talent and if he hits at the top of the order he has a bushel of bats behind him to knock him in.

Edwin Jackson, Cardinals: I gave my thoughts on Jackson last week in Deals a Startin. I’ll add this. I was in St. Louis when Jackson made his first start, and listening to the media and fans you’d have thought they added Bob Gibson to the staff. Jackson has a good arm, and when locked in he can be a solid option, but it seems like expectations are way out of whack with this guy.

Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians: From June 1-July 19th he allowed three of fewer runs in 10-straight starts. Unfortunately he’s allowed nine runs over his last two outings. His velocity is still down three mph, and moving to the AL isn’t going to help his outlook.

Derrek Lee, Pirates: Lee will replace Lyle Overbay at first, and he has been hot of late hitting .298 with a .906 OPS and 13 RBI over his last 15 games.

Ryan Ludwick, Pirates: Leaving Petco should be a big boost to his offense, but it’s not like he has been killing it all year on the road (.258/.300/.389).

Hunter Pence, Phillies: He’s having a fine year but his OBP isn’t great at .355, his SLG of .468 is only 39th amongst players with 400 plate appearances, and his BABIP is high at .365. Still, can’t fault the Phillies at all with this add though it does tank the value of Domonic Brown who was sent to Triple-A.

Colby Rasmus, Blue Jays: I gave my thoughts on Colby last week in Deals a Startin. Let’s say that I like the game, question the head, and wonder if he will ever reach the level that his talent dictates he should. Still, he just might get there in Canada where no one even knows they play baseball.

By Ray Flowers

 

Mailbag: July 26, 2011

Here are the answers to some of the questions that I have recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Drop Jemile Weeks for Desmond Jennings ROTW?
– @jbpowellal

Weeks has provided the A’s with a spark on offense. He’s hitting a strong .307 through his  first 40 games, and he’s used his speed to swipe 10 bags. He has little power, he hasn’t gone deep once and his SLG is a poor .405, but he slaps the ball and runs. One part of his game that he hasn’t flashed yet is his patience at the dish as his current 4.6 walk rate is about a third of the number he posted at Triple-A this year. It would be nice to see him put a few more balls into the ground, his 40 percent ground ball rate isn’t great, but overall this has been a good start to his career.

Jennings is a better talent than Weeks as he can do a few more things on the offensive side of the field. Jennings, surprisingly, showed some power at Triple-A this year with 12 homers in 89 games, while flashing his elite speed. He has also done a solid job all throughout his minor league career at getting on base (his OBP in over 500 minor league games is .380). He’s up with the Rays, finally, and he has looked phenomenal in a couple of games. The real question at this point is can he stay healthy?

Many will argue that Weeks is the preferred option because of his position (second base). I’m still going in the other direction even though Jennings plays a position that’s filled with talent (outfield) because he is just so talented.

 

What’s your take on Alex Cobb. Is he just fill in or does he have long term value? 
– @mercier_five

Cobb is part of a current six man rotation with the Rays. Personally I think the choice to go in that direction is a terrible one, but it’s the way it is in Florida right now. The biggest concern I have with Cobb is his catastrophic K/9 drop. Well over a K per inning guy at Double and Triple-A the past two years, he’s currently at 5.14 through seven big league starts. His BB/9 rate is also worse than the league average as well at 3.43. So how is he having success? It’s all in the grounders as 56 of the batted balls put in play off him have been rug burners. He’s much more Derek Lowe and Fausto Carmona than he is James Shields right now.

As for his long-term value Cobb, a 4th round draft pick in 2006, has risen through the minors on the Rays’ pitching plan, and as we’ve seen that often leads to a lot of success. Cobb was a strikeout per inning arm in the minors, but he’s failed to keep that up in the bigs. The hope is that he doesn’t turn into Wade Davis who has done the the same thing. As a big league starter he’s likely to settle into the #4 role on a good team meaning that he will be hard pressed to ever be a difference maker at the big league level.

What’s your take on Pedro Alvarez now that he’s back?
– @TrillaTrav

Alvarez, the second selection in the 2008 Draft, hit 16 homers with 64 RBI in 95 games with the Pirates last season. Heading into this year nearly every expert in the fantasy game had Alvarez in their top-10, and even those that didn’t were admitting that Alvarez clearly could reach that level. He simply hasn’t. Alvarez has hit .211, posted a .289 OBP and is sporting a sickly .305 SLG (his OBP last year was .326). Alvarez ended up injured and demoted, though he finally seemed to have found his stroke. In 18 games on the farm he hit .325 with a .439 OBP and .538 SLG leading to a recall with the Pirates.

Alvarez has the ability to hit 30 homers while driving in 100, a rate that he was basically performing at last season in the second half (13 homers, 53 RBI over his last 71 games). He’ll need to cut his K-rate down, its over 30 percent this year, to reach that level of success. With all the problems at third base this season, Alvarez is well worth taking a shot on in mixed leagues as there’s always a chance that he’ll recapture the success he had last season in the second half – he certainly has the talent to do it.

IF Heath Bell gets traded, do I drop any of these for Mike Adams – Izzy, Axford, Marmol, Perez, Santos?
– @hedmohave

Last week I broke down the outlook of Mike Adams in the July 19th Mailbag piece. Let me put it this way – his skills are superb, sublime, scintillating in fact. He deserves to be rostered in all but the smallest leagues right now, even as a setup man. If he ends up the closer for the Padres, his value would skyrocket. As for the other arms, here are some thoughts.

Jason Isringhausen: Give him credit for his comeback. The Mets appear intent to sit on him and let him mentor Bobby Parnell leaving Izzy as the Mets’ closer. Jason hasn’t thrown 40 innings since 2008, didn’t pitch in the majors last season, and is 39 years old. He also is giving up a huge 53 percent fly ball rate while his 1.88 K/BB ratio is terrible.

John Axford: Good for the Brewers in doing the right thing, i.e. leaving Axford in the 9th and using Francisco Rodriguez as the setup man. Axford continues to impress with a K.9 rate of 11.27, which when combined with a 54 percent ground ball rate results in him being ideally suited to long-term success in the 9th inning.

Carlos Marmol: The Cubs’ righty had a brutal week, but since then he’s back on track with four scoreless outings. Owner of a devastating arsenal, Marmol is striking out more than 11 batters per nine innings, and he is back as the closer. It’s a bumpy ride, but the results are usually solid. If his BABIP of .324 regresses back to career norms (.254), he would be in line for a strong finish.

Chris Perez: He has been struggling a bit all season despite converting 22 of 24 save chances. A K/9 per inning arm, Perez has seen that number dip to 5.80 this season, which when complimented but his 4.54 BB/9 mark makes him one risky option on the hill. That regression has been on full display the last two weeks as his ERA has gone from 2.23 to 3.03 over four outings.

Sergio Santos: He’s being used cautiously by Ozzie Guillen as Sergio has now appeared in 5-straight games in which he hasn’t lasted an inning despite allowing not a single hit and just one walk. He has been strong all year (3.07 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 12.07 K/9) and remains the arm to own in Chicago, even with the odd usage.

Would I drop any of these arms to add Adams if the deal goes down? I wouldn’t even wait that long. I’d make the move to add Adams right now at the expense if Isringhausen.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Around the Horn: July21, 2011

Potential Trade Targets

HITTERS: (1) Hunter Pence (2)  Ryan Ludwick (3) David DeJesus (4) Coco Crisp (5) Melky Cabrera / Jeff Francoeur (6) Carlos Beltran

PITCHERS: (1) Kevin Slowey (2) Mike Adams / Heath Bell. (3) Jason Isgrinhausen

 

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: July 19, 2011

photo © 2010 Jeremy Bronson | more info (via: Wylio)

You asked at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account, and your wish is my command.

Give Ubaldo Jimenez, get Jay Bruce – thoughts?
– @alistairjhogg

Ah, the case of Jay Bruce strikes again.

Bruce, the talented outfielder for the Reds, runs as hot as Jennifer Aniston in Horrible Bosses and as cold as a snake whose heat lamp has blown a bulb. Bruce was arguably the best batter in baseball in May hitting .342 with 12 homers, 33 RBI and 23 runs scored on the month (28 games). However, over his other 64 games played this year he’s hit only nine homers, knocked in 24 runs, scored 29 times and hit .,227. Yikes is right. Regardless of the nausea inducing ride, Bruce is still on pace to hit 35 homers with 97 RBI, 88 runs and 10 steals and that is some serious production. However, you take the risk of adding the “ugly” Bruce – there’s no guarantee that Jennifer Aniston is going to com and frolic for you, so there’s certain risk in adding the schizophrenic outfielder.

Ubaldo has had a renaissance of late. Over his last nine outings he had gone 5-3, but it’s his ratios that really sparkle. Over his last 59.2 innings Jimenez has a 2.56 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 and a superb 4.15 K/BB ratio. He’s completely locked in for the Rockies. As a result of his recent hot streak his numbers this season compare quite nicely to his career numbers.

2011: 8.08 K/9, 3.51 BB/9, 1.39 GB/FB, 0.65 HR/9, 1.31 WHIP, 3.59 xFIP
Career: 8.09 K/9, 3.90 BB/9, 1.60 GB/FB, 0.57 HR/9, 1.27 WHIP, 3.83 xFIP

With the way that Ubaldo is locked in right now, and the guessing game you have to play with Bruce, I’d side with Ubaldo in this comparison.

Is it time to move on from Justin Smoak?
– @pied1

Simply put if you’re in a 10 or 12 team mixed league, the answer is yes. If you’re in a 15 team mixed league though, the answer is much more open ended because of his current struggles (obviously the homers, 12, and RBI, 43, make him a viable AL-only option even with his batting average in the dumps at .227).

After hitting .284 in April with a .920 OPS, it has been all downhill for Smoak. His run total, RBI total, batting average and OBP have declined each subsequent month since April. Moreover, since the calender flipped to May, Smoak has appeared in 64 games with a slash line of .209/.301/.372. He has hit a home run every 29.25 ABs in that time, but given that the league average slash line this season is .255/.322/.399 you can easily determine that Smoak, as a first base option, has been a huge drag on your team if he’s been in your lineup. Would I move on from Smoak in a mixed league? For certain I would. In fact, I’m so down on the guy right now, relative to the mashers at first base, that I didn’t even list him in my top-20 at first in my Rest of the Way Rankings for Hitters.

In a 13 team league 5 x 5 roto, would you stash Stephen Strasburg as keeper for 25th round pick?
– @Kossdaboss7

Word out of Washington is that Strasburg’s recovery from Tommy John surgery is going so well that he might appear in the big leagues in the month of September. Regardless of whether or not that comes to fruition, there is near 100 percent certainty that he will be back to full strength on Opening Day 2012.

Does that mean you should keep him at the cost of a 25th round selection? The answer to that is an unqualified yes. Reasonable expectations should set the upper bar at 160-innings for Strasburg next year, that’s how many innings the Nats are going to limiting their other young Tommy John survivor – Jordan Zimmerman – to this year. Still, 160 innings is plenty good enough for you to siphon off 25th round value from Strasburg. Though Strasburg only has 68 big league innings under his belt, let’s use his performance in that time as a baseline for expectations. Let’s further postulate that he returns 75 percent of his 2010 performance. What would that net you? How about a 3.64 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 9.14 K/9 and a 4.05 K/BB ratio. If he were to do that over 160 innings he would still more than warrant a 25th round protection.

Who is better to roster assuming they take over the closer role for their team due to trade – Mike Adams or Mike Dunn?
– @slappzilla

The rumor mill suggests that Heath Bell will be dealt out of San Diego with the assumption being that Adams will take over as the closer.

The rumor mill suggests that Leo Nunez will be dealt out of Florida with the assumption being that Dunn could take over as the closer.

However, both situations are hairy. Not only are we making decisions based upon supposition, there are issues with both replacement arms. While Adams would certainly be the first choice to take over in San Diego, the same reports that suggest that Bell will be moved are also saying that Adams is available for the right price. If Adams is dealt it seems quite possible that he could remain in a setup role. As for Dunn, there has been no official mention of who the favorite would be to take over in the 9th inning with names like Edward Mujica and Randy Choate also in the mix (and don’t forget about Steve Cishek).

So who would I suggest adding? I’m gonna say you go with the pitcher with the best skills (remember the motto, go for skills vs. role). Dunn has a nice arm with a 10.64 K/9 rate in his career, but that 6.52 BB/9 mark might even make Carlos Marmol blush. It’s damn near impossible to count on a guy who can’t throw strikes. As for Adams, here are his rankings amongst all pitchers who have thrown at least 125 innings since the start of the 2009 season:

1st in ERA (1.35)
1st in base runners per nine (7.67)
1st in hits per nine (5.22)
14th in K/BB (4.00).

Give me Mr. Adams who is, flat out, one of the most dominating pitchers in baseball when healthy.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

PITCHERS: Mid-Season ROTW Rankings

Last Friday I released my ROTW Rankings for Hitters to equal parts adulation and scorn. Today, I’ll further infuriate the masses by releasing my ROTW Rankings for Pitchers.

Before moving on to the rankings it should be noted that pitchers are only listed at one spot (Tim Stauffer might qualify as a reliever and starter in your league, but in the BaseballGuys.com rankings he only appears as a starter).

These rankings are my expectations for pitchers from this point forward. If Josh Johnson is healthy and at 100% percent he’d be in my top-10. However, he’s not even close to that at this point which is why he doesn’t appear anywhere close to that high on the list.

Relievers are so tough to predict because of roles. I’ve tried to blend my expectations based upon what role a pitcher will hold (i.e. Mike Adams will close if he stays with the Padres and Heath Bell is dealt). In most cases it’s still best to target the skills and not the role, but you have to objectively consider whether or not at this point of the season whether or not the role is more valuable.

PITCHERS: Mid-Season ROTW Rankings

Top-50 Relief Pitchers

Photo by Nick Fisher

 

Earlier this week I released the 2011 Pitcher Capsules in a collaborative effort with Paul Sporer. Unlike hitters where I broke down everything you need to know in my 2011 Hitter Capsules, I didn’t have any input in terms of pitchers in the above linked guide. Therefore, I thought I would share with you my personal rankings for starting pitchers and relievers.

Top-100 Starting Pitchers

In this entry I’ll breakdown my top-50 relievers for 2011.

Pitchers in bold are hurlers I would target as values in drafts. I’ll also give some general thoughts at the end of the rankings.

TOP-50 RELIEVERS

1 Brian Wilson

2 Joakim Soria

3 Heath Bell

4 Carlos Marmol

5 Jonathan Papelbon

6 Jonathan Axford

7 Neftali Feliz

8 Mariano Rivera

9 Andrew Bailey

10 Joel Hanrahan

11 Chris Perez

12 Jose Valverde

13 Matt Thornton

14 Jonathan Broxton

15 Huston Street

16 Brad Lidge

17 J.J. Putz

18 Francisco Rodriguez

19 Leo Nunez

20 Ryan Franklin

21 Drew Storen

22 Francisco Cordero

23 Craig Kimbrel

24 Joe Nathan

25 Frank Francisco

26 Jake McGee

27 Kevin Gregg

28 Fernando Rodney

29 Brandon League

30 Brandon Lyon

31 Hong-Chih Kuo

32 Ryan Madson

33 Luke Gregerson

34 Aroldis Chapman

35 Matt Capps

36 Jonny Venters

37 Rafael Soriano

38 Evan Meek

39 Kenley Jansen

40 David Aardsma

41 Daniel Bard

42 Mike Adams

43 Chris Sale

44 Scott Downs

45 Koji Uehara

46 Joba Chamberlain

47 Brian Fuentes

48 Kyle Farnsworth

49 Alexi Ogando

50 Tyler Clippard

 

* I’d feel really comfortable with any of the top-15 closers on this list, then things start to get a bit spotty.

* Brad Lidge (16) has the full trust of his manager Charlie Manuel, so as long as he is healthy, even if his ratios are sub par, you have to think 30 saves are a given.

* J.J. Putz (17) has the skills to be an elite reliever – if he’s healthy.

* K-Rod (18) is a disaster off the field. On it, there are concerns about whether or not the Mets will limit his work late in the year since he has a clause in his contract that will give him $17.5 million in 2012 if he finishes 55 games this season.

* Leo Nunez (19) has all kinds of questions surrounding him after a late season collapse last year. Still, the guy got more than a K per inning last season and had a GB/FB ratio of 1.79. If he repeats those numbers, success will follow.

* Francisco Cordero (22) has Aroldis Chapman (34) to worry about, but I would be more concerned about the fact that his K/9 rate has fallen off a cliff. Look at his marks the past four years: 12.22, 9.98, 7.83 and 7.31.

* Young arms with strong skill sets can be found in the 20′s highlighted by Craig Kimbrel (23) and Jake McGee (26). Can Kimbrel throw enough strikes to hold off Jonny Venters (36) in Atlanta? Will McGee open the year as the Rays’ closer? I don’t know as the club might go with Kyle Farnsworth (48), but I expect McGee to have the better year.

* Good luck finding betters arms than hurlers 31-34: Hong-Chih Kuo, Ryan Madson, Luke Gregerson and Aroldis Chapman.

* Don’t forget about Mike Adams (42) in San Diego. I’m not certain that if something happened to Heath Bell that it wouldn’t be he, and not Gregerson, who would pitch the 9th inning.

* If the Rangers do the unexpected and ask Neftali Feliz (7) to fill a starting role, Alexi Ogando (49) could get a long look as the 9th inning arm since the club sent Frank Francisco (25) to the Blue Jays this offseason.

CATEGORY TARGETS

I’m a man of my word. On The Drive yesterday on SirusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (5-8 PM EST, Sirius211, XM147), we received a call from Jeff in North Carolina. He asked me what “targets” he should look to attain when building a team in a 12-team league (i.e. how many homers he would need to hit to win a 12-team league). As I said on the air I would get him an answer, and here it is in the form of a link to an article written by fantasy baseball expert Shawn Childs. Enjoy.

By Ray Flowers