Review: Fanball & Sirius Show League

Two more leagues to review. And yes, the results of these final two leagues was much better than the majority of my efforts that I’ve been detailing over the past week.

FANBALL LEAGUE

For those of you who haven’t been following my work for years, and shame on you if you haven’t, I used to work at Fanball. When the company was closed I took up my mantle as a Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio employee, something that I will discuss further when we get to the next section. For now, all you need to know is that I was in a league with 11 other fellow Fanball employees in a 12 team mixed league.

Matt Wieters and Kurt Suzuki, the same tale as every league. One strong catcher and one Kurt Suzuki. On Kurt, my pathetic muse…

Mark Reynolds – sensing a theme here? Yes, I had Reynolds on all my clubs, and yes, he underperformed.

Robinson Cano was nails this year, an MVP candidate thanks to his extraordinary efforts that included a .313 average, a career best 33 homers, 94 RBIs and a career best 105 runs, a 4th straight effort of triple digits.

David Wright wasn’t at his best, but he was very, very good (.306-21-93-91-15). So much for his bat being washed up.

Ian Desmond come on down. What an excellent season (.292-25-73-72-21) for a cheap draft day add (18th round). Amazing.

Ben Zobrist did it all – yet again (.270-20-74-88-14), and he now qualifies at shortstop too. Martin Prado (.301-10-70-81-17) was a wonderful corner infield option who played all over the field like Zobrist. A great MI/CI duo. Oh, and I had Daniel Murphy (.291-6-65-62-10) in reserve at both spots.

A solid outfield, but not extremely deep. Michael Bourn, B.J. Upton, Adam Jones and Dexter Fowler did it all (as did Zobrist). Vernon Wells – yet another disappointing season. I should have known better.

Chris Davis went deep 33 times with 85 RBIs. It happened.

James Shields, Jered Weaver and Max Scherzer anchored this impressive staff. Brandon Morrow would have given me a dynamic foursome if he hadn’t missed two months with injury. Beyond those four, a cast of my “normal” characters – Wandy Rodriguez, Ricky Nolasco, Francisco Liriano. None of them panned out.

My bullpen, as in so many leagues this year, was nails thanks to Kenley Jansen, Tyler Clippard and Sergio Romo for that.

CONGRATS: David Honecker.

FINAL RESULT: 2/12. So close.

THE DRIVE SHOW LEAGUE

Each year on The Drive, my SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio Show (Sirius 210, XM 87, M-Th 7 PM EDT, Friday 9 PM EDT), we do a league with the listeners and producers of our show. Here is how the season went.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia and his 25 homers were nice, but Kurt Suzuki and his six weren’t. Boy did I miss on Suzuki.

Adam Dunn blasted tons of homers (41) and produced runs (96 RBIs, 87 runs scored). Too bad he hit .204.

Ian Kinsler was a steal from 20/20.

Derek Jeter… like on every other team I had, was great.

Mike Aviles was a solid MI/CI option (.250-13-60-57-14).

My boy Chase Headley, taken in the 20th round, was fantabulistic (.286-31-115-95-17). Given his draft day cost, he was one of the 10 best players in fantasy baseball this year.

Ryan Braun was a superstar (.319-41-112-108-30).

Matt Holliday was pretty darn good (.295-27-102-95).

Desmond Jennings had a solid season (13 HRs, 85 runs, 31 steals). I parlayed him into Andrew McCutchen early in the year. Yeah, that worked out well.

B.J. Upton was two homers from a 30/30 season.
Alex Rios was two steals from 25/25
Carl Crawford. Shame on me.

Braun-Holliday-McCutchen-Upton-Rios = the best outfield ever assembled. Ever.

Matt Cain dominated.
Matt Moore wasn’t as good, but he still had 175 Ks.
Tommy Hanson wasn’t even league average. Ditto Josh Beckett.
Ryan Dempster was solid (12 wins, 3.38 ERA, 1.20 WHIP).

Tyler Clippard turned in 32 saves.
Huston Street was dynamic when on the hill (1.85 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 23/24 on saves).
Sergio Romo, dominating again.
Brett Myers racked up 19 saves before he was dealt to the White Sox.
Brian Wilson blew out his arm.
Scott Baker blew out his arm.

How did I save this staff? The additions of Chris Capuano (12-12, 3.72 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 162 Ks) certainly helped. Jarrod Parker also was on the club to add depth (13-8, 3.47 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 140 Ks).

CONGRATS: To Me. Finally.

FINAL RESULT: 1/12.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 17: Did We Learn Anything?

On Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late. Can you use this information to your benefit over at DailyJoust?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Ike Davis (+25, $104 K in DailyJoust Salary)
He’s hitting just .213. Ugh. Now the positive. He has 20 homers, the same total as Mark Teixeira. He’s driven in 60 runs, nine more than Paul Konerko. He’s hit .253 the last 49 games after hitting .170 in his first 48 games. Certain progress no doubt, but there are still two situations that you want to make sure Davis is firmly rooted to your bench. (1) He’s hit .179 with a .576 OPS against lefties this season. (2) He’s hit .151 with a .484 OPS at home. I’m not kidding. Davis has a .151 average at home, a .214 batting average and .270 SLG in 159 at-bats. Can’t get much worse than that and remain a big leaguer.

A.J. Griffin (+69, $344K)
The former college closer just knows how to pitch. Winner of each of his last three starts, each of the six times that Griffin has taken the hill this season he’s gotten exactly 18 outs while allowing no more than three runs in any outing. In fact, he’s sporting some elite ratios – including a 2.25 ERA and 0.97 WHIP – as he’s held batters to a .205 average while posting 29 Ks, against only eight walks, in 36 innings. It’s impossible to think he will keep up this pace, but he’s been a waiver-wire gem the past five weeks.

Justin Maxwell (+14, $70K)
For those of you in NL-only leagues Justin has been a nice, reserve round gamble, hasn’t he? Maxwell has socked 10 long balls with 31 RBIs and 29 runs scored in just 172 at-bats, some pretty impressive marks given that relatively small sample size. However, he’s also hitting .227 which, unfortunately, is .015 points better than his career average. You’re really pushing it if you’re using him in mixed leagues, but he’s a valuable commodity, despite the warts, in league specific setups.

Max Scherzer (+149, $437K)
The last five times he has taken the hill he has emerged victorious four times. In his last four starts he’s allowed a total of eight runs. He’s walked an unappealing eight batters in his last two trips to the hill, but he’s offset the wildness with his huge stuff that has led to a 10.99 K/9 mark, the best in the Junior Circuit (11.58 for Stephen Strasburg to lead the NL). The K/9 mark is a career best, as is his 3.39 K/BB ratio. He needs to do a better job keeping the ball in the yard as he’s given up more fly balls than ever before, an a greater percentage of those fly balls have landed in the seats than ever before.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Mike Aviles (-14, $55K)
On the year Aviles has been a borderline top-10 shortstop option as he’s hit .252 with 10 homers, 51 RBIs, 42 runs scored and 10 steals. Unfortunately for Aviles owners, it’s gotten ugly of late. Aviles is hitting .200 over his last 50 at-bats. He’s also hitting just .194 in July. He has just two homers in his last 48 games. He’s scored just 12 runs in his last 48 games. Yeah, it might be time to explore going with another option up the middle.

Mark Buehrle (-40, $370K)
The guy has been a rock this year with a 3.31 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over 20 starts. It’s not all sugar plumbs and roses though as he’s allowed six earned runs over his last two starts (just 10 IP) as he’s walked five while striking out five. We could play this game all day, he’s killing it, he’s mortal, but in the end he is what he is – and that is a pretty darn impressive big league hurler who never gets hurt an  almost always gives his team a chance to win, even if he isn’t an impressive big league arm.

Trevor Cahill (-47, $283K)
When will they learn? The loser in two of three starts and four of six, Cahill has been the past month what he often is – a below average big league pitcher. In five July starts he has gone 2-3 with a 4.45 WE, 1.48 WHIP and 21 Ks in 30.1 innings. If that excites you have at it with Cahill, but I personally don’t understand the love affair people have with him. Working on a career best K/9 rate, it’s just 6.50, the only think that Cahill does well, the only thing, is keeping the ball on the ground. Still, even with a career best 59 percent ground ball rate his current ratios (3.86 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) look exactly like his career numbers (3.90 ERA, 1.32 WHIP).

Mike Trout (-24, $128K)
A chink in the armor perhaps? Trout’s average has dipped to .350, the lowest it’s been in two weeks, and he’s stolen only one base in his last 13 games. What a loser. I’d still exercise caution when it comes to telling the future with Trout given that his line drive rate is huge and likely unsustainable (25.4 percent). Ditto his BABIP of .402. He’s having a magical season no doubt, but will he finish as strong as he started?

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

Daily Joust – Wk.2: What Did We Learn?

 Monday’s I will be taking a look at the fantasy baseball game by breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances. This week it’s all about hot starting batters and pitchers – can they keep it up?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

INEXPENSIVE OFFENSIVE HEROES

Mike Aviles, 2B/3B/SS ($75,000 Daily Joust salary): The Red Sox shortstop can hit. He owns a career .288 batting average and is currently batting .290 through 31 at-bats. He’s also popped two long balls, though his power upside is likely sneaking into the double digits in dingers. He also posses speed, he’s stolen 14 bags each of the last two seasons. Given his positional flexibility he’s a nice add to any lineup. His value is likely still heading up though as he appears likely to spend an awful lot of time in the leadoff spot for the Red Sox with the shoulder injury to Jacoby Ellsbury that will keep him out of action for an estimated six weeks.

Yunieksy Betancourt, SS ($68K): He’s actually played second base in five of his six games this year, he’s only played nine games at any position other than shortstop prior to this season, but it certainly hasn’t affected hit ability with the twig in his hands. Yunieksy is batting a robust .389 through 18 at-bats, but let’s not get too carried away here. He hasn’t walked a single time in six games, hasn’t stolen a base, and has scored only three times in six contests. Still, I’m not going to ignore his hot start at the plate, but I’m just trying to be realistic here with a guy who has hit .269 with a .293 OBP for his career.

Matt Carpenter, 1B ($66K): A hot pick up, Carpenter has had himself a whopper of a start to the season. Through eight games he has hit .409. That alone would be exciting. When you add in the 10 RBIs that he’s also produced it’s time to get a bit giddy. Carpenter hit .302 last year in 130 games at Triple-A, but he also hit only 12 homers not showing much pop, something you need from a corner infield option. Lance Berkman is also close to a return to the lineup, and don’t forget that Allen Craig (knee) is likely to be back in a couple of weeks making at-bats possibly hard to come by for Carpenter. There’s nothing wrong with rolling with him in the short-term though (over at Fleaflicker Carpenter has recoded the same average fantasy point total as Paul Konerko and Troy Tulowitzki).

Shelly Duncan, OF ($66K): The Indians lineup is about to get a bit crowded with the addition of Johnny Damon, and the question remains will that eat into the playing time of Duncan. If PT is determined by performance in Cleveland than Duncan shouldn’t be worried about losing any of it, at least not right now. Through eight games he has flashed his trademark power with two homers, a double and six RBI. He’s also walked an impressive eight times helping him to Bondsian .485 OBP. Given that he’s also hitting .320 right now you’d be wise to consider him for your starting lineup since he’s also working on a 5-game hitting streak.

Mark Ellis ($72K): Why am I bothering with a guy who is batting .235 with no homers and just two RBIs? Did you notice that his OBP is .366? Or how about the most interesting number in his line – 10 runs scored in nine games. Matt Kemp and Andre Either have to slow down as the season progresses, but if Ellis maintains a spot in the daily lineup, and is hitting out of the two hole, he’ll end up being a pretty valuable source of runs, and that average will certainly climb as well.

LOSER OF THE WEEK

Kendrys Morales ($110K): From April 9th through April 15th Morales had, wait for it, one hit in 18 at-bats. Given that he was also 0-for-5 on April 8th that means he has one hit in 23 at-bats. I know it’s early, and I always talk about sample size being so important, so I’m not going to hammer Morales – yet. I will say this, which is the same thing I was saying three weeks ago when people were going bonkers to add Morales after he had a hot stretch to end Spring Training, the guy is coming back from an injury after missing more than a season and a half. As great as he looked to end spring he has looked equally putrid once games started counting (.200-0-0 through 30 at-bats). The game just isn’t that easy folks.

PITCHERS WHO ARE PERFORMING

Bartolo Colon ($173K): He’s 2-1 with a 3.72 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and an extremely impressive 7.00 K/BB ratio. I’m still not buying it. In a quirk of the schedule, thanks to MLB’s desire to play in Japan, Colon has pitched against the Mariners in all three of his games. I think, on a good day, that I could get many of the Mariners batters out. Be careful not to overemphasize his early season success.

Kyle Drabek ($195K): The former 1st round draft pick has killed it in two starts as he’s learned to just relax when guys get on base versus over thinking and trying to over analyze everything. He’s 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, but do two starts wipe out a miserable 2011 effort that say him post a 6.06 ERA, 1.81 WHIP an a 0.93 K/BB ratio (yes, he walked more batters than he struck out last season)? I need more than two starts for me to feel like he’s totally over the hump.

Barry Zito ($215 K): Currently the 77th most expensive SP in the DailyJoust game, Zito has pitched his brains out – so far (1-0, 1.13 ERA in 16 IP). Be honest with your assessment here though. The last time he posted an ERA under 4.00 was 2006. The last time he had a winning record was 2006. He’s also struck out only eight batters in 16 innings and his current walk rate of 0.56 per nine, well I somehow don’t think he’s going to keep that up since he’s never posted a season long mark below 3.06, and that was way back in 2002.

DAILY CONTEST

MLB – Tournament – Mon, Apr 16th – King Arthur’s $50BB Hi Cap Daily Free For All over at DailyJoust.com.

Single entry. No entry fee. $50 prize pool payable in Bonus Bucks. Bonus Bucks can be used as entry fee for an cash entry contests on Daily Joust. Top 15 places paid. Winner also gets a King Arthur badge.

Prize: Top

•1 – $10.00
•2 – $5.00
•23 – $5.00

etc. (it pays out down to 15th place).

Also, if you deposit $25 in your account you can get a 40% deposit bonus, and who doesn’t like free money?

By Ray Flowers

The Fantasy Beat: Diamonds in the Rough

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray discuss some hitters you can get in the very late rounds of your snake drafts or guys you can get for real cheap prices that will still be a great value for your fantasy baseball team.

Listen to the Audio.

Player Profile: Chase Headley

Chase Headley has always had a fan at BaseballGuys.com. If you purchased a copy of the 2011 BBGuys’ Draft Guide, and if you didn’t shame on you, you will recall my words of encouragement about Headley (this years Draft Guide will likely drop at the end of January or early February for those of you itching to get it in your hands). Headley didn’t live up to expectations in terms of his fantasy output in 2011, but that doesn’t mean that he didn’t show some growth. Read on for my explanation of what I’m talking about an if there is enough here to make him someone to target in 2012 (I broke down his new teammate, Carlos Quentin, in this Player Profile).

Headley will have corner infield value in mixed leagues because he isn’t afraid to steal a bag. Each of the past three years he has stolen at least 10 bags, and his three year average is a cool 13 thefts a season, the same total he posted last year. Amongst third base eligible players only Eduardo Nunez (22), Ryan Roberts (18) and Mike Aviles (14) had more last season. Don’t misinterpret what I’m saying – I’m not saying Headley is some base stealing marvel, but he does steal a fair amount of bags relative to others at the third base position.

Headley hit a career best .289 last season, better than the marks posted by Placido Polanco (.277), Chipper Jones (.275), Martin Prado (.260), Kevin Youkilis (.258) and Roberts (.249). That certainly helped to boost Headley’s value in the fantasy game. While OBP isn’t counted in the majority of leagues, Headley was also a strong performer there. Headley’s .374 OBP was the highest mark of any third baseman in the National League (minimum 400 plate appearances). He can thank the fact that he pushed his walk rate to a career best level (11.8 percent), two percentage points above his career rate. He still struck out 21 percent of the time, but the result was a 0.57 BB/K mark, the best of his career. As you can see, Headley produced a strong average and got on base at a great clip in 2011 compared to other third sackers – and there is value in that.

There’s a pink elephant in the room though, and the number on that tutu is four, as in the homer total of Headley in 2011. As a third baseman, Headley would have to be performing at an Ichiro-like level to overcome a mere four homers, and clearly Headley didn’t so his fantasy value was sunk last season. We can partly blame the fact that injury limited him to just 113 games, but that’s like using a band aid for a broken leg. The fact is that Headley has never learned how to lift the ball. He raps out extra base hits, he’s averaged 29 doubles the last three years, an as we’ve see he produces hits, but he doesn’t hit the ball in the air. Chase’s fly ball rate has regressed the past two years, down from 38.3 percent to 36.0 and 32.3 percent, which is well below the big league average of about 37 percent. So he doesn’t hit enough fly balls to be a big time home run hitter. Second, his HR/F ratio is just 7.0 percent for his career, and the last two years he’s failed to reach 6.5 percent. You can certainly blame him for that, but his home ball yard in San Diego also isn’t doing him any favors. Petco was 12th out of 16 NL stadiums last year according to the HR Park Idicies, and the past three years Petco is 15th in the NL. If Headley were to move out of San Diego a run to 15 homers seems reasonable, though that’s still nothing to get overly excited about when we’re talking about a third baseman hitting 15 homers.

The best thing that could happen to Chase would be for him to be dealt to another club. He seemingly profiles very well as a #2 hitter, but he might be best suited as a 6th or 7th place hitter on a strong team. If he was allowed to spend his home games in an offensive leaning park a 15 homer, 15 steal season could be possible. Toss in a .280-ish batting average and then we’d be talking. However, if he isn’t dealt out of San Diego, Headley would likely be best served as a solid third base option in NL-only leagues. Headley might still produce enough to be a solid corner infield option in deep mixed leagues, after all his career bests would lead to a .289-12-65-77-17 fantasy line, but he’s more of a speculative play in that format.

By Ray Flowers

Still Making a Difference

It’s that time of year where things can fall apart at a moments notice. Troy Tulowitzki is likely out for a couple of days with a hip issue, while teammate Todd Helton continues to battle back woes. Jimmy Rollins is back in action, but he’s going to be worked into the lineup slowly getting more time than usual on the bench (sounds like he could sit two of the next six games). So what do you do? Who can you count on at this point? Let me point out a few guys that might be worth a look.

Willie Bloomquist, D’Backs
With Stephen Drew out, Willie is seeing a lot of playing time. Willie’s batting .350 thew past three weeks with four steals and eight runs scored. He’s little more than a depth play in mixed leagues, but he’s going well right now.

Nick Evans, Mets
He has been a run producing beast the past three weeks with three homers and 15 RBI. He’s also not killing anyone with his .286 batting average.

David Murphy, Rangers
Everyone was nervous when Nelson Cruz was activated from the DL, but now comes word that the Rangers are going to play it safe with their always injured slugger and he’s only going to pinch hit for the next few days. This means Murphy will continue to play everyday for at least another week. Murphy has two 4-hit games in his last six outings and three in his last 10 games. In that time he’s also gone deep four times with 11 RBI and 10 runs scored. There simply aren’t many batters hitting any better right now.

Ramon Santiago, Tigers
I know, you could care less about this guy, but if you’re in need of a batting average boost, there are many, many worse options right now. Ramon is hitting .346 over his last 52 at-bats, and he’s even tossed in two homers and 11 RBI.

Some other batters who are killing it even without daily playing time the past three weeks.

Yonder Alonso has no spot on the field, but he clearly knows what he’s doing with a bat in his hands. Alonso has 14 hits in his last 41 at-bats leading to a .342 average. Funny thing, that’s actually worse than his .386 mark on the year for the Reds.

Mike Aviles has nine hits in his last 20 at-bats (.450). Why he isn’t seeing more playing time over Jed Lowrie (0-for-16 and 1-for-24) is a bit of a mystery.

Bryan LaHair has 11 hits in 24 at-bats leading to a .458 average. After hitting .331 with 38 homers in Triple-A this year the only question right now is why isn’t he playing everyday?

Where do you rank Andre Ethier for next year?
-  @k_roccco

Ethier’s year is over because of a situation with his knee that will require surgery, but he should be 100 percent well before the start of games in 2012. Ethier has had a rocky path dealing with the Dodgers front office and coaching staff, and being that he is arbitration eligible next season, and set to become a free agent in 2013, it’s quite possible that the Dodgers might be inclined to move him. A move out of LA would only help Ethier since he could (a) use a fresh start and (b) enjoy himself more fully in a park that more readily favored offensive production.

Ethier was a disappointment this season in some respects while living up to expectations in others. His batting average of .292 was a point better than his career mark, and his .368 OBP was .004 better than his career mark there (.364). However, after 3-straight years of at least 20 homers he slumped to just 11 this season, while his 3-year run of at least 77 RBI also ended (he had a mere 62). Considering that he has no stolen base speed, he didn’t even swipe one base this year, his effort was nothing more than a middling one for an outfielder, something like a 5th outfielder in a 12 team mixed league.

Can Ethier bounce back in 2012? Certainly. He’s just 29 years old and will presumably be in full health. You’d also have to expect his fly ball ratio to climb back from a career worst 31 percent (career 36.3) and for his HR/F to also inch back upward (it was 9.2 percent this year after three years in a row above 13.5 percent). He still shouldn’t be looked at as a 30 homer bat, and he wont steal any bases, but if his normal power returns in 2012 he could be a top-25 outfielder yet again.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: May 17, 2011

photo © 2010 Ro Datz | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are the answers to some of the questions that I have recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Martin Prado vs. Howie Kendrick – how close is it?
– @kevingilmore3

I love this question. It’s kind of like asking – Kim Kardashian or Sofia Vergara? You really can’t go wrong either way. In fact, let’s be honest, you’d take either one home to meet mamma and feel pretty good about it.

Eligibility
M. Prado: Qualifies at 2B, 3B and OF
Kendrick: Qualifies at 2B. In most leagues he is also 1B eligible, and possibly OF (he’s played six games there this season).

Career Numbers
M. Prado: .305/.354/.454
Kendrick: .296/.331/.431

Pretty darn close, eh?

Career Numbers (per 500 ABs)
M. Prado: .305-11-60-76-3
Kendrick: .296-9-61-66-12

Pretty darn close yet again.

2011 Numbers
M. Prado: .305-6-27-28-1
Kendrick: .310-6-17-29-4

I know I’m supposed to be the expert and have all the answers, but in this case there may not be a definitive answer. Like I said, how do you choose between Kardashian and Vergara?

Ah hell, give me Vergara and Kendrick.

Jed Lowrie or Mike Aviles? Looking for a David Wright replacement.
– @itsthejohnes

I bet it would surprise a lot of people out there to learn that Aviles has more homers (five to three), RBI (26 to 18) and steals (eight to zero) than Lowrie. Don’t overlook how significant that difference in the steals department is either, it makes up for the massive gap in their batting average right now (.243 to .320).

Lowrie hit .368 in April. He is hitting .259 in May.
Lowrie had a .389 OBP in April. That mark is .317 in May.
Lowrie had a .574 SLG in April. That mark is .407 in May.
Lowrie had a K-rate of 16 percent in April. That mark is 28 percent in May.

You get the point.

A middle infield option who is hitting .320 is a fine addition to any squad, but what if that same player hits 12 homers and doesn’t steal a single base? That’s the pace that Lowrie is on for those of you who haven’t been keeping track.

Aviles owns a career .292 average, so where did those extra .050 points go? His BABIP is .253, only .067 points below his career level, as he has struggled to hit the ball on the screws. Aviles has posted line drive rates of 20.2, 18.9 and 18.8 percent the past three years which seems to strongly suggest that he won’t continue to struggle along at 11.6 percent. The problem right now is that he has jacked up his fly ball rate by 13 percent. Aviles would do well to remember that he is a 12-15 homer bat. If he continues to hit 50 percent of his balls sky ward success could elude him.

Lowrie is second base and shortstop eligible while Aviles is second base as well as third base eligible in almost every league, so there is no advantage there for either player. Given that Aviles is the only one who runs, and that he owns a .292 career average (Lowrie is at .266), I’m going with Aviles if I have to choose one.

Is it time to cash in on Curtis Granderson’s hot start?
– @rickyhelsel

If it weren’t for the ridiculously hot Jose Bautista, Granderson would be leading baseball in home runs as Granderson has 14 homers through 39 games putting him on pace to obliterate his career best mark of 30 long balls. Granderson is already roughly 40 percent to his carer best of 74 RBI with 31. Toss in a .993 OPS, .080 points clear of anything he has ever done before, and you should be considering selling high on the Yankees’ outfielder.

Granderson has a 53 percent fly ball rate. Not only would that be a career-high, it would blow past his 44 percent career mark. Granderson also has a 25 percent HR/F mark. He’s never posted a mark above 14.5 percent in a full season, and his current mark is nearly double his career rate of 13.2 percent. Can we reasonably expect both of those trends to continue? Not in my world.

All of the extra fly balls also create an issue in the batting average category. After hitting .249 and .247 the past two years the inclination when you see his .280 mark this year is that he has figured things out and is back on course. However, the data doesn’t really support that position. Granderson is within a percentage point of his career walk rate, and his current K-rate of 25.9 percent would be a five year worst. He’s also, partially because of the extra fly balls, posting a career worst 15.1 percent line drive rate. Putting all of that data together would seem to suggest that Curtis will have a hard time hitting .280 this season unless he changes his approach.

So would I trade him? I trade anyone on my roster if the right offer came along so I’m certainly not going to say you should hold on to a guy who it would seem is in line for a reduction in production the rest of the way.

Mark Reynolds or Brett Wallace the rest of the way?
– @gregory671

On the surface this seems like a preposterous question since Wallace is hitting .323 and Reynolds .191, but when you look a bit deeper, it’s a fair question – and no, I’m not faded from pulling back four Mai Tai’s this morning. Look at the other four fantasy categories.

Wallace: two homers, 12 RBI, 20 Runs, one steal
Reynolds: five homers, 19 RBI, 17 runs, one steal

You’re probably still skeptical. How about we look at how each guy has done in the month of May.

Wallace: .200-1-3-5 with a .600 OPS
Reynolds: .229-3-5-7 with a .800 OPS

Still not convinced, right? Does history mean anything to you? Obviously you can’t directly compare Reynolds to Wallace in that respect since Wallace has never played a full season, but that doesn’t mean it shouldn’t mean something when it comes to Reynolds. Yes, he is a dreadful option the batting average category, perhaps a debilitating one, but don’t forget these facts.

1- Reynolds has produced an average of 35 homers, 95 RBI and 88 runs the past three years. All told he was first amongst third basemen in homers, fourth in RBI and second in runs from 2008-10.

2- Reynolds has hit 37 homers with 104 RBI and 96 runs since the start of the 2010 season. Those numbers place him second amongst third basemen in homers, sixth in RBI and sixth in runs scored.

Do you take a chance on a guy who seems destined to hit 30 homers while struggling to hit .240?

As I warned back on April 28th in 2011 Player Profile: Justin Smoak and Brett Wallace, I’d be wary of overestimating the hot start of Wallace. That doesn’t mean he is waiver-wire fodder, but the fact of the matter is that to this point of the season Wallace has really been nothing other than an empty batting average producer. If I needed batting average on my squad I’d take Wallace, but if I was looking at rostering the player who will have the most fantasy value from this point forward, give me Reynolds.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Do Sleepers Exist?

There was an article posted today at Fanball called 2011 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers. First off, I have a huge problem with the term “sleeper.” It’s so ingrained in our minds that when it is left out of a draft guide or preseason preview we get tons of emails asking how we could be so stupid as to not including such an article in our coverage.

Honestly though, what good is a “sleeper” article? In 1994 there was a point to it, but that time has long passed. In the “old days” before the internet blew up, data was hard to come by. Only those that really attempted to ferret it out were able to find it. However, information is everyone at this point. You can get it online for free – just like you do here at BaseballGuys – and you can find information everyone on the internet if you want to pay a few bucks. There are also shows on television dealing only with fantasy baseball, and I host a daily radio on Sirius/XM Radio where we talk about fantasy sports three hours a day (5-8 PM, EDT). The point is, with the data available in virtually every medium you could think of, there really are no true “sleepers” anymore. By draft day every player has been analyzed and worked over, so much so in many instances that a guy who was a sleeper in early January ends up being drafted in the 10th round in your mixed league draft in late March.

I think the best we can do is to put forward a list of players who are likely to be undervalued on draft day, though again, that value is completely arbitrary and will be determined totally based upon how those in your league value the players (if you buy Daric Barton in New York he might cost $7, but try purchasing him for less than $10 if you live in California).

Here are the names that were on the “sleeper” list I refered to at the top of the piece. In what follows I give my own thoughts on each (each writer took one player and gave his reasons why that guy should be a draft day target in the original piece).

Pedro Alvarez: He hit a combined 29 homers last season between Triple-A and the majors, but he also struck out a shameful 187 times. With such a poor approach at the dish, Alvarez is much more Adam Dunn than he is Ryan Zimmerman. Still, he has a shot to be a top-10 third basemen.

Mike Aviles: In his two healthy seasons he has hit better than .300. Do you know how many .300 seasons that Chase Utley has? Try two. Aviles seems capable of going 10/10 as well, and though his run producing is suspect, only nine players hit .300 with 10 homers and 10 steals in 2010.

Homer Bailey: He still needs to work on his secondary stuff, but Bailey pitched really well over his last 10 starts with a 3.55 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 59 Ks in 58.1 innings. He seems locked into a starting role with the Reds, and despite seeming like he has been around forever, Homer is just 24 years old.

Jay Bruce: He is a huge breakout candidate after his dynamic finish (.338-15-29 over his last 43 games) in 2010. However, that finish will have Bruce on everyone’s list of breakout candidates in 2011. There is no disputing that the youngster could be a huge run producer, and he has seen his walk rate improve each year, but the strikeouts are a concern.

Lorenzo Cain: He hit for average and flashed speed in 43 games after hitting .317 with 26 thefts in 84 games in the minors. Cain has hit .291 in the minors in his career, but it’s hard to envision him continuing to hit so well in a full season of work. The Royals believe in him as he was part of the package of players they received for Zack Greinke.

Starlin Castro: He was awful on the base paths with a 56 percent stolen base rate, and he closed out the year on a down note hitting .232 over his last 23 games. Someone will likely pay top dollar for a guy who might be merely solid in 2011 though he did hit .300 last year while not being able to legally pull back on a bottle of Jack.

Chris Coghlan: While his production was down in year two you can take solace in the fact he closed strong hitting .312 over his last 42 games. As a result, he is slated to start the year as the Marlins leadoff hitter. The knee he injured in a post game celebration should be fine for the start of games, but I worry about his ability to handle center field, the position he is currently slated to play.

Aaron Hill: This is the player in the review I referenced. Here is what I wrote.

“Let me construct this rather obvious case in three steps. (1) Even though he ‘struggled’ in 2010, Hill was tied for fourth amongst second basemen in homers with 26. He has 62 homers in the last two seasons, second most at the position (Dan Uggla has 64). (2) Hill has 176 RBI over the past two years, third most at second base. Clearly he is an elite power option. (3) From 2006-09, Hill hit at least .286 three times and he possesses a career .270 average. However, he hit just .205 in 2010. What in the hell happened? Hill owns a career line drive rate of 18.5 percent, slightly below the big league average (20 percent), but somehow that number dropped to a mere 10.6 percent last year. That’s roughly the equivalent to Adam Dunn hitting about 21 homers. Hill had the absolute worst LD-rate and BABIP (.196) in baseball, and there is about as much chance of that happening again in 2011 as there is of me getting a mid-season call up to the Giants. If he maintains his power from the last two years, he’ll go deep 31 times with 88 RBI, while matching his career .270 average would given him one hell of a season. Hello, Dan Uggla.”

Jonathan Niese: He made 30 starts for the Mets posting a 4.20 ERA. However, that’s somewhat deceiving; Niese had a 3.76 ERA after 28 starts before he was tanked in his last two outings (*12 ER in 8.1 innings). His numbers were sort of Doug Davis-ish with a 1.46 WHIP, 148 Ks and 62 walks in 173.2 innings. If he can locate his pitches, and keep the walks down, his ERA could easily be in the 3′s in 2011.

Jordan Zimmerman: A potential ace who is coming back from Tommy John surgery, Zimmerman is the classic “sleeper” who everyone will talk up to the point that he won’t be drafted like one. He should be 100 percent this season, and with a 8.76 K/9 and a 3.05 K/BB over 122.1 big league innings his future is definitely looking plenty bright.

By Ray Flowers

The Weekend is Here

I’ve got a date on Saturday with a pretty lady friend. She is coming over for dinner, so if you have any suggestions on what I should make to impress her – I’ve already thought of SPAM and a vat of wine so you don’t have to suggest those – let me know in the Comments section below.

Wait a second, this is a baseball website, right? Sorry about that.

* Mike Aviles is hitting .341 in 70 at-bats. Yeah, good job Royals for sending him down to the minors so you could give at bats to Chris Getz (.188) and Yuniesky Betancourt (.280, .301 OBP).

* Ryan Dempster will defer money so that the Cubs can try to improve their team. (1) Dempster is set to make $12.5 million this season. He will defer $3 million of that at “little or no interest” according to Ken Rosenthal. (2) Good for him. I mean when you’re making millions of duckets a year, why not defer a few bucks if it helps the team? If you can’t live off $9.5 million a year you are seriously in need of an adjustment – even if you are 50 Cent. If you didn’t notice that the picture above was 50 Cent by the way, you lose your street cred completely.

* Jacoby Ellsbury is back on the DL with continued pain in his side and there seems to be some growing animosity between the two sides. Ellsbury feels that the team completely misdiagnosed his injury which has led to all the problems and whispers that he wasn’t tough enough to play through pain. All I know is that he is killing fantasy owners with a mere nine games played this season. And don’t think we “experts” don’t know how you feel. On one of my teams this year I had Ellsbury, Joe Nathan who didn’t throw one pitch, Lance Berkman who missed weeks with his knee injury, Josh Beckett who has been awful and is now out with a back condition and Brian Roberts who has all of 14 at-bats this season. Yeah, it doesn’t get much worse than that does it?

* Adam Jones had an interesting experience when he was detained for hours when the Orioles went to Canada to face the Blue Jays. Apparently they thought he was a hoodlum. Perhaps they thought he was NFL player Pacman Jones? Newsflash – the easy way to tell if it was Pacman would be to have a hot stewardess walk by and see if he started “making it rain.”

* From the oddity file. Jay Bruce has a .247 career batting average with a homer every 19.2 ABs. The past three weeks he is hitting .328 with one homer in 67 at-bats. Go figure.

* Will Ohman has three saves in a career that spans 7+ big league seasons. He is now the primary closer in Baltimore.

* Grady Sizemore is still seeing specialist about his knee injury. The more doctors he visits the more likely it is that he is hearing information that he doesn’t really like, or worse yet, there is a disagreement amongst doctors as to what the best course of action would be. We should hear over the weekend what the plan is, but I’m starting to give some serious thought to the position that Sizemore may have played his last game in 2010. Who would have thought back in March that Carlos Beltran and Sizemore, combined, wouldn’t suit up for 162 games in 2010? Sure looks like it might happen at this point.

* My Jed Wars team is about ready to get medieval on some fools. I’ve got Derek Holland who was recently recalled, Chris Tillman who is on the verge of his first appearance with the Orioles and Daniel Hudson who should replace a useless Freddy Garcia at some point in the near future in Chicago. If two of those three hit – in addition to Wade Davis who is also on my squad – I’m gonna have a killer AL-only staff. Can you imagine if this was a keeper league?

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May3, 2010

(1) Alex Gordon to work on versatility in minors.

(2) Brad Lidge not ready to close – who will for Phillies?

(3) Jimmy Rollins likely to miss at least two more weeks.

(4) Joe Mauer to DL with heel injury?

(5) Javier Vazquez to have start skipped.

(6) Brian Wilson back to health in San Francisco.

(7) Should you still sell-high on Garland and Fister? Here’s a quick shorthand note – yes.

By Ray Flowers