Around the Horn: April16, 2010

(1) Who do you want on your fantasy staff – Bronson Arroyo or Aaron Harang?

(2) There are a ton of players who look like they could return this weekend: Carlos Gonzalez (hamstring), Mike Cameron (kidney stones), Jacoby Ellsbury (ribs) and Chris Coghlan (ribs).

(3) Fred Lewis traded to Blue Jays.

(4) Felipe Paulino and Bud Norris performing pretty well for Astros.

(5) Carlos Beltran (knee) still not running.

(6) Ted Lilly (shoulder) nearing a return.

(7) Brandon Webb throwing, though off flat ground.

(8) Lance Berkman sent to minors to play this weekend, could be activated next week.

By Ray Flowers

Some Halladay Cheer

I wrote a couple of baseball articles today that if you haven’t read them, you might be interested if you have a few moments to spend. Just what were they about? So glad you asked.

The first piece was on THE DEAL as I’ve grown to call it at BaseballGuys’ Twitter Page. Obviously I’m talking about the massive deal that included Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, and you can find that analysis at
Hallady, Lee Switching Leagues.

The second article is my breakdown of the Juan Pierre to White Sox move. The short of it? He should be a strong fantasy option in 2010.

Brett Wallace can flat out rake. Unfortunately he looks like he never skipped a helping of cake (that must have come from reading “The Night Before Christmas” early today). As a result of concerns about whether or not he will ever be able to handle the hot corner the Athletics, flush with options at first base, turned around and traded Wallace – who was picked up in the Matt Holliday deal – to the Jays for outfielder Michael Taylor (he was a member of the Blue Jays for about five minutes after being picked up in the Halladay deal with the Phillies). Wallace will have a chance to open the year with the Jays, he has hit .302 in 734 minor-league at-bats and only has Lyle Overbay in his way (the Jays have reportedly been shopping Lyle around for a while now). As for Taylor, he could start at a corner spot with the A’s as early as opening day. “He has a chance to be a superstar in the outfield,” A’s assistant GM David Frost said. “He’ll come into Spring Training with a chance to prove he is Major League-ready.” Standing 6’6″ and weight about 250 lbs, Taylor has hit .312 during his minor league career and last season he hit .320 with 20 homers, 84 RBI and a .977 OPS in a season spent mostly at Double-A (he also saw action at Triple-A). Both players deserve attention in league specific formats this season.

The Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox rumors just won’t die despite most pundits belief that a deal simply won’t get done. After all, the Padres hold all the cards with their run producing first baseman who has two years left on a deal that pays him just over $10 million the next two seasons. You’re going to have to give up one hell of package to land that slugger, and even with a deal highlighted by Clay Buchholz may not be enough to cause the Padres to send their slugger east.

Delusional quote of the day, courtesy Mike Cameron who told the Boston media that he could steal 20 bases in 2010, and the only reason he didn’t last year was because the Brewers held him back on the base paths. Uh, Mr. Cameron, you haven’t stolen 20 bases since 2006, and at 37 years of age in January, that really doesn’t seem like a statement you should have made. I wish you luck, you’ve been a 20/20 weapon four times in your career, but with all of 24 steals in your last 269 games played, I’m thinking you’re gonna fall a bit short with the Sox.

At this point, are you wondering what the photo that accompanies this piece has to do with the article? Nothing of course. I was just listening to some Christmas tunes while writing this and “Baby it’s Cold Outside” was on the radio, so I thought to myself – how could I best warm people up? A pretty lady in a bikini may or may not get the motor running, but it should remind you of the time you spent on the beach a few months back and that might help.

By Ray Flowers

The Little Things Matter

With all the big deals in the game of baseball the past couple of days, I wanted to make sure I didn’t neglect a couple of the lesser names on the market, either those that have signed or those that are on the brink of inking a new deal.

Why is Marlon Byrd such a hot option? I know he had a nice season with a .283 average, 20 homers and 89 RBI for the Rangers, but does any of that really excite anyone in fantasyland? Maybe not, but the Cubs certainly appear to want to add the 32 year old to their outfield for next season, that if they can ever rid themselves of malcontent Milton Bradley. As for Byrd, I know last season was his first full year in the bigs 9at-bat wise), but he has been over 400 at-bats in each of the past three seasons. Still, he has only one season with more than 10 homers, and he owns a career line of .279/.340/.422, and that ain’t much better than average folks. BY the by, here is how he has done per 162 games in his career: .279-12-69-78-8 with a .762 OPS. Don’t know about you, but I don’t think anyone should be too excited about adding that bat, especially the Cubs since they already have a virtually identical batter in Kosuke Fukudome who hit .259-11-54-79 with six steals last season.

Mike Cameron is a Red Sox. What can we expect from him in 2010? Glad you asked. You can read my thoughts in Breaking Down: Mike Cameron.

Jeff Francoeur hit .319 over his final 36 games last season, and overall he .311 with a .498 SLG in 75 games with the Mets, a marked improvement over his early season work with the Braves (.250, .352 SLG in 82 games). With late season numbers like that you would think that he was fully healthy at the end of the year. In fact, you might think he was injured earlier in the year given the struggles with the Braves. Well if you thought that you would be wrong. Turns out Frenchie had left thumb surgery after the season, and the thumb was so jacked up that the doctors needed to replace a ligament (one was taken from his forearm). He should be fully healed by the time the season starts, and he is clearly one tough cookie.

Matt Holliday was reportedly offered an 8-year deal for $128 million by the Cardinals. However, Buster Olney of ESPN refuted the St. Louis Post-Dispatch report and said the team doesn’t want to go beyond five years. No matter what the offer is, it doesn’t seem likely to be enough to entice Matt Holliday, at least for the moment. To read more about the whole Holliday saga give Ryan Boyer’s Is it five years or eight years for Holliday?

I gave my thoughts on the outlook of Hideki Matsui in his new home with the Angels in Breaking Down: Hideki Matsui.

John Lackey and the Red Sox continue to hold off on officially ratifying the 5-year deal that is thought to be worth $85 million. Looks like the Sox want to have the contract include some language in it to protect themselves from any previously suffered injuries, should the arise again. It’s really just semantics – don’t worry, the deal will get done.

Seems like Ben Sheets is still angling for a one year deal worth $12 million. Of course that includes a boatload of bonuses built into the deal, but after missing all of last season is there really a team out there that is crazy enough to offer him that much even if its almost entirely incentive based?

By Ray Flowers

Really, Are You Serious?

I wanted to talk just about baseball today, but I just couldn’t limit myself to the diamond in my comments so you will see a couple of shouts out to the NHL and the NFL. Hope you don’t mind.

Vincente Padilla allowed a single hit over eight innings on Tuesday afternoon though, shockingly, he didn’t emerge with a victory as the potent Rangers’ offense waited until the 10th inning to start hitting in a 7-2 victory over the Mariners. In the outing Padilla walked three batters while striking out four in his eight inning shutout effort as he needed just 102 pitches (“only” 66 of those pitches went for strikes). In the end, Padilla lowered his ERA to 5.71 while his WHIP dropped to 1.50 with the scintillating outing. Should you be rushing to the waiver-wire to add Padilla to your squad? The short answer to that question is a resounding no. His K/9 rate of 5.97 is below the magic six, his BB/9 rate of 3.38 is right on the major league average and the result is a poor 1.77 K/BB mark. In addition, after an average fastball speed of 92.7 mph in 2005, his gas has decreased, subtly, in each of the past four seasons down to its current level of 90.8 mph. In addition, since joining the Rangers in 2006, Padilla has a 6.48 K/9, a 1.91 K/BB, a 5.02 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. If you want a guy with numbers like that anywhere near your roster, you got bigger cahones than me.

Chris Young, the potentially dynamic outfielder for the D’backs and not the 6’10″ hurler for the Padres, is mired in a terrible slump that has seen him produce just one hit in 25 at-bats to drop his average down to a pitcher-like .177. The guy has got oodles of talent, but once again he is proving that it’s darn near impossible to have consistent success at the plate if you cannot control the strike zone. In 1,360 career at-bats Young has struck out more than a quarter of the time (25.7%) which has resulted in a terrible 0.34 BB/K mark at the dish (the marks are much worse this season at 32.3% and 0.19). Obviously an approach like that isn’t going to lead to a strong average, a fact clearly seen in his career mark of .238. In addition, after swiping 27 bags in his rookie season, he regressed to just 14 last year and has been successful on just three of five attempts this season. To review. (1) There is no upside in batting average here. (2) Young needs to cut down the strike outs and up the walks. (3) His stolen base numbers are dwindling (you can’t steal first so it doesn’t help that he owns a pathetic .301 OBP). He should still be a Mike Cameron clone, a guy who routinely goes 20/20 with a suspect average, so if you are in a keeper league now might be the perfect time to acquire his services, though if you do you would be wise to leave him on your bench until he straightens his approach at the plate out.

Are the Ducks really going to plow through the Sharks and the Red Wings? If they do, not only will that be a complete and utter shock, it will also show just how grossly undervalued the team was by pundits heading into the playoffs.

Jonas Hiller has been so good for the Ducks that I’m coining a new phrase. No longer when a goalie plays a great game did he “stand on his head,” now it’s he “pulled a Hiller.” The netminder owns a 1.74 GAA and a .955 save percentage in nine playoff games.

Who hates Brett Favre as much as me? Goodness gracious just retire and shut up. He is almost as high on my “hate list” as the Dodgers and the Yankees, and that my friends is saying something.

By Ray Flowers