Draft Day Challenge, April 18

Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

@MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Mike Napoli
2. John Buck

Napoli has never faced Zach McAllister before. However, Napoli is second in baseball with 14 RBIs against right-handed pitchers, two less than Miguel Cabrera.

Oh hell, just start Buck. The snow seems to have finally stopped in Colorado and the guys is batting .326 on the year. But be warned… he’s hitting .214 the past week and he’s hit only .238 against John Garland in his career (and yes, I know he’s not eligible for daily games since his game time is early in the day).

FIRST BASE
1. Nick Swisher
2. Paul Konerko

Swisher is trending right now and he’s got a strong matchup to keep it going. Swisher has hit .326 with an OPS over 1.000 in 46 at-bats against Jon Lester. Two homers and eight RBIs are a nice sweeter.

Konerko has four hits, including two homers, in 10 at-bats against R.A. Dickey. He’s also batting .360 with two homers, six RBIs and six runs scored the past seven days.

SECOND BASE
1. Neil Walker
2. Kelly Johnson

Slow start be damned, Walker has kicked things up a notch the past week with 10 hits in 22 at-bats leading to a .455 average and six RBIs.

Johnson, like Walker, is cranking things up. He’s only had 13 at-bats, but he’s gone for four hits, a .308 average, and he’s gone deep twice for the Rays in that time.

THIRD BASE
1. Ty Wigginton
2. Chris Johnson

Wigginton has been terrible this season when called upon with two hits in 13 at-bats. He may not even play tonight. Still, he likes facing Cole Hamels whom he has five hits against in nine at-bats.

Johnson faces lefty Jeff Locke. He’s 0-for-1 against the youngster, but he is hitting .438 with a homer in 16 at-bats against lefties this season and he’s also hitting .409 overall.

SHORTSTOP
1. Cliff Pennington
2. Jimmy Rollins

Pennington is 4-for-8 with a homer and four RBIs against Phil Hughes. Cliff is also seeing regular work with the D’backs, even if the effort thus far hasn’t been overly exciting (zero HR/SB in 51 at-bats). Hey, there aren’t that many games tonight.

Rollins has one hit in 18 at-bats the past week. He’s only hitting .232 on the season. So why am I noting him here? He’s actually had success against Adam Wainwright with a .350 average in 20 at-bats.

OUTFIELD
1. Gerardo Parra
2. Garrett Jones

Parra faces right Phil Hughes, a hurler he has never seen before, but Parra has had a lot of success against righties this year. In 40 such at-bats Parra is batting .375 with a homer, a triple and five doubles.

Jones doesn’t have a single at-bat against a lefty this year, but that’s fine since he has hit .325 against righties. He faces Julio Teheran of the Braves. He’s right-handed.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Chris Sale
2. Patrick Corbin
3. Mike Gonzalez
4. Tony Cingrani

The Blue Jays have managed a mere .250 average and just one RBI in 12 at-batsm agianst the lefty. Sale hasn’t had as much success in his career on the road, but he’s still been good away from Chicago (3.43 ERA, 1.22 WHIP over 147 IP).

Corbin is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA on the young season. He’s gone six innings in each outing, and today he faces a Yankees club that is dealing with all kinds of injuries, so the matchup isn’t anywhere near as bad as it might sound like when you first hear it.

Gonzalez has tossed two quality starts in his two outings this season, though eight strikeouts and seven walks ain’t exactly great. The Rays are the lowest scoring team in the AL right now, so the matchup isn’t unappealing.

For more of my thoughts on Cingrani, see my Rounding the Bases column. Oh, he’s facing the pathetic Marlins as well.

By Ray Flowers

Insanity Reigns Supreme

In what follows you will read the tale of the best agent in baseball, a solid third basemen who is being paid as if he is the second coming of Mike Schmidt, and how a team with no chance of winning their division in 2011 is willing to dump $14 million into three moderately effective relievers.

Beltre to AL Champs

Now I’ve seen it all.

Middle relievers are getting multi year deals for more than $5 million a year, which is bad enough, but this whole Adrian Beltre situation has me totally befuddled until I read two words – Scott Boras. Somehow Beltre’s agent, Mr. Boras, has convinced the Rangers that they just had to have Beltre. Not only that, he’s convinced them to pay more than the $80-85 million Beltre was seeking as current reports put the deal he is on the verge of signing with the Rangers at 6-years and $96 million (see Postcards from Elysian Fields). Oh the deal isn’t done, and it does appear to have some language in it that could void the sixth year, but it seems like a near lock that it will get worked out. So here are my questions.

(1) Is Beltre worth that much money? I certainly don’t think so and I’ve written just that multiple times including an in depth look at the player in The Curious Case of Adrian Beltre. Give it a read before you think that the Rangers are spending their money wisely.

(2) How in the world did Mr. Boras get the Rangers to go six years and nearly $100 million on Beltre given that there seemed to be only one other team even remotely interested in Beltre? The Angels were the other team, but they reportedly pulled their 5-year, $70 million offer off the table when Beltre dragged his feat on accepting it. The Athletics long ago pulled out of the sweepstakes, and their offer was 5-years and $64 million according to reports. So again, I ask, how was Boras able to get six and 96 from the Rangers when no one else was reportedly within $25 million of that offer? There may be no person on the planet better at their job than Mr. Boras – not one.

(3) I can grant you that Beltre is a better defensive third baseman than Michael Young, but really, why the Rangers need to add Beltre to take over third and push Young to DH? Wouldn’t it have been more fiscally prudent just to leave Young at third and to bring free agent Vladimir Guerrero back to DH? Not only would they have saved something like $75 million compared to what they had to lay out for Beltre, their offense would likely have been just as good in 2011. Are the few runs a year that Beltre will save at third base worth the untold millions extra they are paying him?

(4) And finally, for the gazillionth time:
Beltre has one 30 homer season.
Beltre has two 100 RBI seasons.
Beltre has hit better than .290 just twice.

To compare – Aramis Ramirez has four 30-HR seasons, five 100 RBI efforts, and he has hit better than .290 six times, and few have ever considered him to be an elite option despite the fact that his offensive highs have dwarfed the efforts of Beltre.

Seriously, I just don’t get it.

Orioles Finally Sign Gregg

The Orioles finally got their man as they signed Kevin Gregg to a 2-year deal worth $10 million. According to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun, there is also a vesting option for a third year. For more on Gregg and his recent solid work on the hill spend a few moments looking over Hot Stove: Not Everyone is Greedy.

How does the end of the game look for the Orioles? They already have power lefty Michael Gonzalez in the pen, and he clearly can handle 9th inning work. I know he was injured last season and limited to just 24.2 innings last season because of injury, so the Orioles do need to make sure they have an alternative to Gonzalez. But still, they are paying him $6 million in 2011, and that is quite the cost for a setup man (and obviously, more than Gregg will be making). The Orioles did the smart thing and locked up control artist Koji Uehara for a mere $3 million on a one year deal (I say mere because of the aforementioned spending spree that GM’s went on this year with middle relievers). However, Uehara also had arm issues last season, and it’s unclear if he will be able to pitch every other day out of the bullpen. Uehara and Gonzalez are scheduled to make $9 million this year. Toss in another $5 million for Gregg and you are talking $14 million for those three arms in 2011. I guess in today’s age that isn’t too much to pay for a moderately successful closer, an injury prone lefty, and a guy who has thrown a total of 110.2 innings at the big league level.

Are you as pumped as I am about the upcoming 2011 fantasy baseball season? In order to help you kick off your quest to be a champion in ’11, we at Fanball have set out to provide you with all the tools that you need to accomplish your goal. Read more about how to start your journey in Your Fantasy Baseball Resolution where you will find links to staff rankings, projections, live advice and DraftPractice.com where you can mock away for FREE.

By Ray Flowers

Don't Look Now

The Baltimore Orioles are, all of a sudden, sporting some viable fantasy options for those of you looking to add a boost to your roster in September. Not only that, the team looks totally reborn under manager Buck Showalter who has led the club to a 20-13 record since he took over managerial duties. “Starting pitching probably is the biggest difference,’ second basemen Brian Roberts said. “I don’t know if you can attribute that to Buck or not.” Maybe it’s all coincidental, but it certainly seems like Buck has pushed all the right buttons. Here are some notes about a few of those Orioles arms that you would be wise to add to your staff down the stretch if you need a little boost.

Brian Matusz is on fire – even if you didn’t notice, and even if you couldn’t pick out his season long stats from a lineup. You can be forgiven for that given that Matusz is 8-12 with a 4.71 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP on the year. However, he has morphed into the pitcher that everyone knew resided in that body despite the early season struggles, you know, the one that AL-only fantasy performers were hoping for when they dropped $10 on him on draft day. After picking up his 8th win on Monday, Matusz is 5-1 over his last seven starts with some sparkling numbers highlighted by a strong 3.33 K/BB mark, a 1.09 WHIP and 2.43 ERA. To compare, Felix Hernandez, an ace if there ever was one, has a 3.48 K/BB mark, a 2.30 ERA an a 1.09 WHIP on the year. I’m clearly not stoned enough to be saying that Matusz is a pitcher on par with the King, but the fact of the matter is that over his last seven starts Brian has been nearly effective as the Mariners’ ace – a shocking statement to make no matter the small sample size.

We don’t have to go very far at all to find another Orioles starting pitcher who has been mighty impressive of late. I know how crazy it is to suggest that there are actually two hurlers in Baltimore that are fantasy must-starts right now, but the fact of the matter is that there are. The second hurler is Jeremy Guthrie who, lo and behold, has once again remade himself into a pitcher to consider in mixed leagues. Guthrie was 3-10 with a 4.77 ERA in the first half looking decidedly like the disappointing hurler from ’09. However, since the All-Star game the guy has looked like a completely different hurler. In addition to turning his won-loss record completely around, he has gone 6-3, Guthrie stopped walking batters to the point that his BB/9 rate dropped to Cliff Lee like levels at 1.51. The lack of free passes has enabled Guthrie to post a wonderful 3.50 K/BB mark in the second half leading to a duo of delightful ratios: 2.51 ERA, 1.00 WHIP. I wouldn’t bet a hundred bucks that he will continue this run through September, but if you need help off waivers there likely aren’t many available who are performing better than Jeremy.

Koji Uehara is the current closer in Baltimore after the early season struggles, an injury, of the man brought into town to do the job – Michael Gonzalez. Alfredo Simon then took over and was far from impressive, and Jim Johnson came down with some arm woes leaving the pen in an almost constant state of turmoil. However, the situation has worked itself out since Showalter took over with Koji asserting himself as the 9th inning option of choice. On Monday he picked up his 7th save of the year as his ratios continue to drop toward the realm of a Mariano Rivera type (Koji has a 2.18 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP). Over the 21 appearances he has made since the All-Star break, Uehara has been a dominating force with 25 strikeouts and a mere walk over 24 innings. It’s really a simple game as he has success because he simply hasn’t beating himself with the free pass. As a result, his WHIP over his last 21 appearances is a superb 0.79, and though his ERA nearly doubles that mark it’s still a stupendous 1.50. As for Gonzalez, he has started to find his groove in a setup role as he has 17 Ks in 15.2 innings since returning from injury while he has produced a 2.87 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP while holding batters to a mere .164 average.

There are more keys to the club’s resurgence as players like Felix Pie, Brian Roberts, Luke Scott and Nick Markakis have done some things, but most of the time when a team is surging it’s because their pitching staff is excelling. That is clearly the case with the Orioles who all of a sudden have a reason to be somewhat optimistic heading to the offseason.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 10, 2010

(1) Ryan Braun’s wrist an issue.

(2) The Mike Gonzalez situation explained.

(3) Jose Guillen on NL West contenders minds.

(4) Brandon Morrow to have next start moved back until Tuesday as I predicted would happen on Monday in Morrow Makes History – Sort Of.

(5) Mike Leake could lose starting spot to Homer Bailey.

(6) Rich Harden to have start pushed back at least until Sunday.

(7) Gil Meche hopes to return to bullpen this season.

(8) Nyjer Morgan’s hip is an issue.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 30, 2010

(1) Jose Reyes injured in batting practice. Should be OK.

(2) Nate McLouth still having concussion related symptoms.

(3) Erik Bedard nearing a return to big leagues.

(4) Bengie Molina to be moved to the Rangers?

(5) Clayton Richard has 10 Ks vs. the Rockies.

(6) Mike Gonzalez might be out until All-Star break.

(7) B.J. Upton out with quad injury.

(8) Jair Jurrjens returns for the Braves.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 8 , 2010

(1) Stephen Strasburg makes his big league debut on Tuesday. You can read more of my thoughts about that in What can we expect from Stephen Strasburg who makes his debut on Tuesday?

(2) Mike Stanton makes his big league debut on Tuesday.

(3) Orlando Hudson to DL. J.J. Hardy has cortisone shot in wrist.

(4) Jeff Clement like to be sent down next week in favor of Steve Pearce.

(5) Brian Roberts and Mike Gonzalez hit roadblocks.

(6) Jacoby Ellsbury getting a second opinion on broken ribs.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June2, 2010

(1) Aroldis Chapman likely to remain a starter.

(2) Jorge Posada returns early from broken foot – will DH.

(3) Josh Beckett suffers setback – likely out two more weeks.

(4) Jose Contreras losing game on Wednesday – Brad Lidge closing in.

(5) Cristian Guzman is second in the NL in batting average.

(6) Jason Bartlett could be headed to DL with hammy issue – good news for Reid Brignac.

(7) Mike Gonzalez continues to improve.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May24, 2010

(1) Carlos Zambrano tosses 73 pitches in simulated game. Hopes to return to rotation next week.

(2) Erik Bedard suffered a setback this weekend. Shocking.

(3) Homer Bailey, John Maine placed on the DL with shoulder inflammation.

(4) Mat Latos 0.93 ERA, 0.55 WHIP in his last four starts.

(5) Alfredo Simon hurts hamstring. Orioles may not have to turn to Cla Meredith and Will Ohman in 9th.

(6) Gordon Beckham to remain in the bigs.

(7) Mike Cameron will return to the Red Sox on Tuesday.

(8) With Clint Barmes struggling to hit, Rockies are interested in bring back Kaz Matsui.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May20, 2010

(1) Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Cameron appear on track to return by next week.

(2) Giants to call up Eric Hacker instead of Madison Bumgarner?

(3) Ian Snell into Mariners rotation in place of RRS.

(4) Tommy Hanson allows eight runs – ERA goes from 2.88 to 4.18.

(5) Mike Leake hurls 7th quality start in eight outings.

(6) Jorge Posada to DL. Will be replaced by Francisco Cervelli.

(7) Mike Gonzalez faces batters.

(8) Kerry Wood’s epic struggles.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May17, 2010

(1) Edwin Encarnacion activated off DL as Travis Snider is placed on it.

(2) Orioles get good news with Brian Roberts and Mike Gonzalez.

(3) Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury still working way back.

(4) Nick Johnson has wrist surgery – out 4-6 weeks.

(5) Jimmy Rollins back from DL.

(6) Mark DeRosa hopes to return next week and be effective.

(7) Doug Davis to DL giving Manny Parra a chance to start.

By Ray Flowers