Daily Joust – Wk 10: Did We Learn Anything?

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GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Clay Buchholz (+112, $339,000 in Daily JoustSalary)
He’s got a 5.77 ERA and 1.58 WHIP, and the last time he was worth anything in the fantasy game was 2010. Still, the seeds of improvement are here. Over his last three starts he has allowed four runs and four of the last five times out he’s allowed two or fewer runs. A big key? He’s reigned in the walks with only four in his last three starts. Still, I’m not a huge fan. I just don’t like his overall game.

Jonny Gomes (+24, $79K)
The guy has power. He has five homers this year in 107 at-bats, and dating back to last season he has gone deep 19 times in 418 at-bats. At the same time he has hit .211 in that time – he’s hitting .215 this year – though he does have a rather impressive .333 OBP given his lowly average. He’s nothing more than a depth option in AL-only leagues since he’s really not a very good hitter against right-handed pitching.

Ian Kennedy (+97, $329K)
Kennedy has allowed a total of one run in his last two starts as he’s racked up 19 Ks in just 13.2 innings. Kennedy was never going to match his performance from last year (21-4 record). Wasn’t gonna happen. Still, his K/9 rate of 8.44 is up from last season (8.03) while his BB/9 rate is the same at 2.26. Honestly though, he’s pitched pretty similar to what he offered last year (xFIP was 3.50 last year, this year it’s 3.86).

Miguel Montero (+19, $84K)
Montero has two homers and seven RBI over his last five games signaling that perhaps he is finally on the cusp of returning to the hitter everyone thought they were drafting this year. A season after hitting .282 with 18 homers and 86 RBI, Montero’s power is way down (four HR) while his average is also lagging (.249). I still believe he could be the hitter he was last year the rest of the way. Time will tell.

Wei-Yin Chen (+89, $264K)
He’s pitched well in his first 11 big league starts with a 3.49 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Still, his K/BB is 2.32. His GB/FB is 0.90. His BABIP is .283. His HR/9 is 0.94. The end result? That’s a whole lot of league average numbers isn’t it?

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Dexter Fowler (-25, $91K)
Hitting .281 with a .382 OBP, people are starting to get a wee bit nervous with Fowler after 9-games without a homer and nine Ks in his last four games. Perspective people. Has he been cold for a week? For sure. Was he insanely hot the week before? You know this. He’s on pace for a 20 homers, 75 RBI, 90 run, 15 SB season. Hold fast.

Mike Moustakas (-19, $75K)
Hitting .273 with a .336 OBP, Moose has been solid but not great. The nine homers and 28 RBI put him on pace to be a top level option at third base in the power department, but he’s also hit only one homer in 10 games, and in 54 at-bats against lefties he has a .583 OPS. Still has a ways to go, but a solid start.

Ivan Nova (-74, $219K)
He’s 8-2 and he has a rather amazing, for him, 69 Ks in 77.2 innings (his 8.00 K/9 mark is more than two an a half batters above his career rate entering the year). He’s also allowed just one run in 15 innings over his last two starts. At the same time he’s got a 4.64 ERA and 1.42 WHIP and he’s allowed five or more earned runs in five of his last nine starts and his ground ball rate is on the decline (52 percent his first two seasons down to 47 percent). Tread carefully.

Bud Norris (-49, $182K)
On May 25th Norris had a 3.14 ERA. Now? That number is 4.65 as he has been blown up for 16 runs over his last three starts (12.1 innings). Obviously he’s struggling to get batters out at the moment, but he’s also struck out 18 batters in that time so he’s still providing some value. He’s likely not a 3.14 ERA guy, but I also don’t think he’s a 4.65 guy either.

Buster Posey (-20, $75K)
Hitting .290 with a .810 OPS, Posey is just about back to the hitter he was in 2010 when he took the Bay Area by storm. Still, that’s if we look at his overall game because after hitting .353 in April he’s hit a mere .256. He’s a legit .290 hitter though, so don’t expect his average to fall much further.

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

Rookies, Former Disappointments an a CL

Rookie disappointments, players trying to finally catch their groove, and a closer who doesn’t get the respect that he is due highlight today’s article.

John Axford is the Brewers closer. Period. I know everyone got all nervous when Francisco Rodriguez was brought into town, but the Brew Crew has done the right thing and left Axford alone as the arm working the 9th. K-Rod has done very well in a setup role with a 2.45 ERA and 15 Ks in 11 innings since joining the club, but it’s Axford who deserves all the accolades. Not only is he 33 for 35 in saves, the last time he blew a chance was April 18th as he’s racked up 64 Ks in 54.1 innings. He’s as good as there is at shutting down an opponent.

Chris Davis is one of my favorite late round gambles each year. To this point, he’s done little at the big league level to warrant the love, but perhaps things will change now that he is in Baltimore. Apparently over a scare with his shoulder, Davis appears slated to see daily playing time in the Orioles’ lineup. Davis hit .368 with 24 homers and 66 RBI in just 48 games at Triple-A this year, and though he would be lucky to get within a hundred points of that batting average, the power is legit. After all, he has averaged 24 homers per 500 at-bats during his big league career (43 homers in 903 at-bats).

Conor Jackson’s career was at a crossroads coming into this season. A first round pick in 2003, his last couple of seasons had been ruined by ill health. He started out slowly this year, and with the A’s logjam at first and in the outfield he just wasn’t seeing regular playing time. He’s slowly started to come around though as he hit .292 in July and .309 over his last 21 games. He still isn’t flashing much power with only four homers in 299 at-bats, but the sweet stroke is finally back.

Rich Harden is always one pitch, heck one step, from the trainer’s table. It took him forever to get on the field this year, but once out there he has performed very well. Harden may have an elevated 4.07 ERA for the Athletics but he has 45 Ks in 42 innings, is sporting a 3.00 K/BB ratio, and his WHIP (1.17) is a rather impressive total for a hurler in the AL. He’s only lasted more than six innings twice in seven outings, but he’s looked pretty much like his old self when on the bump.

Rookie Report

Yonder Alonso – The guy has no position, he recently embarrassed himself in the outfield, and he’s not going to supplant Joey Votto at first base any time soon. Still, the kid can hit and he’s gone 8-for-17 (.471) this year to up his career mark to .304 in 46 at-bats in the bigs.

Desmond Jennings – He’s looked every bit the Carl Crawford clone in 17 games hitting .328 with 11 RBI, 11 runs scored and eight steals. He has been marvelous.

Mike Moustakas – He’s hitting .193 with one homer through 171 at-bats, and his OPS is .497. The poor average is a head scratchier but one homer in 171 at-bats? That’s just vexing.

By Ray Flowers

Moustakas Gets the Call

photo © 2010 Jeff Powers | more info (via: Wylio)

Today I’ll touch on the call up of Mike Moustakas, the struggles of Trevor Cahill and Ichiro Suzuki, the continued dominance of Justin Verlander and the fact that there is an NL batter who is excelling right under everyone’s nose.

Back in March I warned people not to reach for Trevor Cahill in Which Pitchers Should I Target? I then ranked Cahill as my 50th best pitcher in my Top-100 Starting Pitchers piece. People sent me some nasty notes saying I was stupid and completely overlooking the great work Cahill did in 2010 (18-8, 2.97 ERA, 1.11 WHIP). It’s still early, but I see vindication on the horizon. Cahill has lost his last four decisions and he has looked atrocious over his last four starts – 7.25 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, 1.07 K/BB ratio. On the year Cahill still owns a strong 3.18 ERA an a passable 1.32 WHIP, but I’ll continue to warn you that I’d be surprised if his ERA doesn’t end up being a run higher than it was last year.

Without looking, who is leading the NL in OPS? If you guessed Lance Berkman (1.080) you’d be right. Some of you may have gotten that one, but tell me, who is sixth in the NL? If you haven’t looked at the list the past couple of days there is no way you would know that it’s the Rockies… Todd Helton (.928). Helton was horrible last year with a .728 OPS in 398 at-bats, but it seems like everyone just wrote him off coming into the year because of his age (38 in August) and back woes despite the fact that he was pretty darn good two years ago (.904 OPS). If you grabbed him late in your mixed league, great job.

Ichiro Suzuki is hitting .252 on the year including an impossible to believe .132 in June and .189 since the start of May in what has been the worst slump of his life (I contracted his t-ball coach to confirm). Ichiro is 37 years old, but can a guy who has 10-straight years of hitting .300 with 200-hits suddenly just stop hitting? I think it’s doubtful. His walk rate is better than normal, and his K-rate would be his best mark since his 2001 season. He is hitting more balls than ever on the ground (62 percent this year versus 56 for his career), but given his skill set that is better than the alternative of him hitting the ball into the air. Ichiro has seen a gradual reduction in his line drive rate the past few years, but his 17.6 percent mark is slightly better than the 17.3 percent rate from last season, yet somehow his BABIP has dropped from .353 to .273. Given that his career BABIP mark is .354 and that he has never finished a year below .316, I believe that mark, and his average, will rebound. He wont hit .328 this year – his career mark – but I think .300 is still doable.

Justin Verlander is 5-0 with a 2.37 ERA over his last eight starts to improve his yearly totals to 7-3 with a 2.89 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 93 Ks in 102.2 IP (8.15 K/9). Flat out, the guy is an ace.

ROYALS CALL UP SLUGGER

Mike Moustakas was called up by the Royals Thursday as they continue to switch gears midstream by calling up all their youthful talent. Here are my thoughts on the slugging third baseman.

The second player taken in the 2007 draft, Moustakas hit .322 with 36 homers and 124 RBI last year – in just 118 games mind you – to be named to just about every minor league all-star squad you can think of. He started out this season a bit slowly, but after hitting .356 over his last 10 games he upped his average to .287 in Triple-A with 10 homers and 44 RBI in 55 games. The young third baseman has power, plus power actually, and he should be able to flash that immediately with the Royals. For a slugger he also does a fairly good job at avoiding the whiffs, though that doesn’t mean he is ready to be a .300 hitter in the big leagues – he isn’t.

With third base being a minefield this season of injury and poor performance, Moustakas is a name you need to take immediate note of. In my recently released ROTW Rankings: Hitters piece, I listed Moustakas 19th at the position. Why so low? I honestly didn’t think he would be up for another month. At this point I have no problem moving him up to 15th on that list which means he is obviously an immediate add in 15 team leagues, and if you are in a 12 team league that uses corner infielders, he would also be a must add. Of course, this thumbs up shouldn’t be offered without my standard “be careful he is just a rookie with no big league experience” line. I’m predicting success here based on his skills and pedigree, but that is by no means a guarantee that he will live up to the hype in 2011.

By Ray Flowers

AFL Impressions

As I sit here in the airport eating a rather bland turkey sandwich, I had a few moments in which to detail a few of the more interesting tidbits that I was exposed to while in Arizona for the yearly Arizona Fall League.

The biggest disappointment of the trip was not getting a chance to see Stephen Strasburg throw a couple of innings. He was supposed to pitch in the Rising Stars Game, but he came up with some mysterious neck issue that kept him out of the contest (he should return to action before the AFL season ends). Maybe he hurt himself getting a tan at the pool.

I could work with one of the best crews in the business if you just read their work. When you get a chance to spend time with them, you realize that not only are they braniacs in the world of sports, they are great people as well. Good stuff.

Jemile Weeks is listed at 5’10″. He is lucky if he is 5’8″. Reminds me a lot of Chone Figgins with his size and approach.

I know they say Buster Posey is old enough to drink, but I swear the guy looks like he could be the kid in the Jerry Maguire movie – minus the glasses of course.

Grant Desme may have set the AFL on fire with his stretch of 10 bombs in 10 games, but he didn’t impress me at all at the dish. Gotta say as well that his arm is a mystery. On Friday he two-hopped the infielders on a couple of throws, though on Saturday night at the Stars’ game he unleashed a powerful toss to nail a runner that had me second guessing my initial impression.

Domonic Brown has got that tall lanky body that will lend itself to comparisons with a guy like Chris Young. While he may have that kind of all-around talent, he needs to add about 20 pounds to his frame while at the same time learning to keep his balance at the dish. He was all over the place with his cuts.

Tanner Scheppers brings the cheese. He has an odd set position on the mound where he starts in almost a sprinters type setup in the blocks in the 100-meter dash. No matter how he starts out, that is one electric arm.

Mike Moustakas has what was called by fellow Fanball employee Ted Carlson a “Royals’ body.” It worked out for Billy Butler, but for a guy who was drafted as a shortstop I just don’t get it. That lower half of his is straight out of the catcher’s handbook. He didn’t impress me at all.

Josh Fields doesn’t cast a large shadow with his size, but he looked pretty darn sharp attacking hitters in the contest.

Ike Davis may be a first round pick, but he has a long ways to go. He drops his hands about 12 inches as he enters the “launch position” which would seem to leave him terribly vulnerable to high heat and anything off-speed. He also has an odd throwing motion, albeit a smooth one, where he hooks his hand as he takes it back ala Barry Zito.

Dustin Ackley didn’t make much of an impression, but he clearly has the look of a big leaguer – sooner rather than later.

And finally, the future might be bright for the Reds. Chris Heisey looked sharp while Yonder Alfonso was hitting like it was an arcade game.

No telling just how many of these fellas will make their mark in the bigs, but it was nice to see the young talent that will likely be gracing ball fields in the majors for years to come.

By Ray Flowers