Draft Day Challenge, April 25

Fantasy baseball is about adapting to change, whether it’s do to injury or performance. Keeping up with the Jones’, DraftDay.com has decided to change things up in their partnership with BaseballGuys by offering a new contest for you to enter in daily fantasy baseball.

*** After detailing the game I’ll list for you some of the best plays of the day at the bottom of the piece.

MLB Rapid Fire Game at DraftDay
There are five 1-on-1 matchups for Friday’s MLB Games (this contest is obviously for Friday, not Thursday). If you’re able to go 3-for-5, come on you can do that, you will double your entry fee (the cost is just $1.10 to enter).

What’s the Special Offer?
DraftDay.com is offering a 100 percent money-back guarantee if you don’t win (two or less correct picks) your Rapid Fire game this Friday (only on $1.10 level).

Too good to be true? Hardly. Here are the rules.
1. Make your picks and enter for $1.10 (only the $1.10 is eligible for money-back offer).
2. If you don’t have a DraftDay account, make one when prompted.

For those who feel think a mere 3-for-5 day is too simple you can play DraftDay’s Rapid Fire Max games where if you go 5-of-5 your winnings end up being 20 times your entry fee (there’s no refund action in this game though).

When is This Contest?
Picks have to be submitted by first pitch on Friday. You can edit your player selections up until game-time.

So to enter the contest click on this link to DraftDay.com. Come on folks, if John Buck can go 3-for-5 so can you.

THURSDAY MATCHUPS

For those of you looking for some help for today, here are some solid matchups.

CATCHERS
1. J.P. Arencibia
2. Miguel Olivo

JPA has gone deep and produced six hits in 12 at-bats against Hiroki Kuroda. JPA also blasted his AL leading 8th bomb Wednesday.

Olivo owns Edwin Jackson in their limited battles. Olivo has gone deep twice with six RBIs as he has produced four hits in just eight at-bats.

FIRST BASE
1. Mike Napoli
2. Greg Dobbs

Not only is Napoli hitting .274 with an .889 OPS but his total of 26 RBIs leads baseball.

Dobbs has only nine at-bats against Edwin Jackson (two hits), but he’s always been a better hitter against righties in his career. Honestly, it’s not like that is really saying that much.

SECOND BASE
1. Steve Lombardozzi
2. Jamey Carroll

It looks like Lombardozzi might get a chance to start at second base for the Nationals as Danny Espinosa‘s struggles continue (.155/.197/.293 in 58 ABs). Lombardozzi is batting .345 and gets to face Bronson Arroyo, not exactly the toughest right in the game (Lombardozzi’s OPS is .096 points higher versus righties than lefties in his career).

Carroll has three hits, two runs and an RBI in his last two games and in his career against the Rangers he has hit .360 with a .875 OPS over 86 at-bats. I know, pretty impressive for a guy who owns a career mark of .697 in the OPS column.

THIRD BASE
1. Josh Donaldson
2. Manny Machado

Machado gets to face the struggling Parker of the Athletics while Donaldson faces the Orioles Hammel. Donaldson has five hits and four RBIs in his last three games and Machado has 10 hits in his last seven games while he has driven in seven runners.

SHORTSTOP
1. Josh Rutledge
2. Robert Andino

Rutledge is 4-for-9 against the D’backs Cahill and he has a hit in 5-straight. He’s also gone deep three times, while stealing five bases, in 20 games. The 18 runs scored is also an impressive mark (eight in eight games).

Andino was named the starter for the Mariners after the team grew a bit weary of Brendan Ryan‘s poor hitting. It’s not like Andino is an accomplished hitter in his own right, but he is batting .364 the past week and he does have one hit in three at-bats against the Angels’ Richards.

OUTFIELD
1. Vernon Wells
2. Ichiro Suzuki

Both of the Yankees outfielders get to face Mark Buehrle, a pitcher they both own. Wells has been insanely effective against MB hitting, get this, .489 with two bombs in 47 at-bats. Ichiro has only hit .431 against MB in 51 at-bats. Slacker.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Hiroki Kuroda
2. Kevin Slowey
3. Garrett Richards
4. Trevor Cahill

Kuroda faces the Blue Jays, a team he held to one run back on April 20th over 7.1 innings. In four career starts against the Jays he has a 3.65 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 4.40 K/BB ratio.

Slowey has a 1.90 ERA and 1.23 WHIP through four starts, and in each game he has held the opposition to two or fewer runs. He doesn’t beat himself with six walks on the year, and for what it’s worth his one start against the Cubs he punched out 10 batters in six innings.

Richards faces the Mariners a team he has racked up 14 Ks an a 3.27 ERA against over 11 career innings. Richards also had a 2.55 ERA and 0.68 WHIP over 17.2 innings this season.

Cahill has a tough matchup against the Rockies, but he’s pitching at home where he has had success this season (3.50 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 18 Ks in 18 IP). He also held the Rockies to three earned runs in seven innings the last time he faced the Rockies, and that was in Colorado.

By Ray Flowers

Draft Day Challenge, April 18

Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

@MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Mike Napoli
2. John Buck

Napoli has never faced Zach McAllister before. However, Napoli is second in baseball with 14 RBIs against right-handed pitchers, two less than Miguel Cabrera.

Oh hell, just start Buck. The snow seems to have finally stopped in Colorado and the guys is batting .326 on the year. But be warned… he’s hitting .214 the past week and he’s hit only .238 against John Garland in his career (and yes, I know he’s not eligible for daily games since his game time is early in the day).

FIRST BASE
1. Nick Swisher
2. Paul Konerko

Swisher is trending right now and he’s got a strong matchup to keep it going. Swisher has hit .326 with an OPS over 1.000 in 46 at-bats against Jon Lester. Two homers and eight RBIs are a nice sweeter.

Konerko has four hits, including two homers, in 10 at-bats against R.A. Dickey. He’s also batting .360 with two homers, six RBIs and six runs scored the past seven days.

SECOND BASE
1. Neil Walker
2. Kelly Johnson

Slow start be damned, Walker has kicked things up a notch the past week with 10 hits in 22 at-bats leading to a .455 average and six RBIs.

Johnson, like Walker, is cranking things up. He’s only had 13 at-bats, but he’s gone for four hits, a .308 average, and he’s gone deep twice for the Rays in that time.

THIRD BASE
1. Ty Wigginton
2. Chris Johnson

Wigginton has been terrible this season when called upon with two hits in 13 at-bats. He may not even play tonight. Still, he likes facing Cole Hamels whom he has five hits against in nine at-bats.

Johnson faces lefty Jeff Locke. He’s 0-for-1 against the youngster, but he is hitting .438 with a homer in 16 at-bats against lefties this season and he’s also hitting .409 overall.

SHORTSTOP
1. Cliff Pennington
2. Jimmy Rollins

Pennington is 4-for-8 with a homer and four RBIs against Phil Hughes. Cliff is also seeing regular work with the D’backs, even if the effort thus far hasn’t been overly exciting (zero HR/SB in 51 at-bats). Hey, there aren’t that many games tonight.

Rollins has one hit in 18 at-bats the past week. He’s only hitting .232 on the season. So why am I noting him here? He’s actually had success against Adam Wainwright with a .350 average in 20 at-bats.

OUTFIELD
1. Gerardo Parra
2. Garrett Jones

Parra faces right Phil Hughes, a hurler he has never seen before, but Parra has had a lot of success against righties this year. In 40 such at-bats Parra is batting .375 with a homer, a triple and five doubles.

Jones doesn’t have a single at-bat against a lefty this year, but that’s fine since he has hit .325 against righties. He faces Julio Teheran of the Braves. He’s right-handed.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Chris Sale
2. Patrick Corbin
3. Mike Gonzalez
4. Tony Cingrani

The Blue Jays have managed a mere .250 average and just one RBI in 12 at-batsm agianst the lefty. Sale hasn’t had as much success in his career on the road, but he’s still been good away from Chicago (3.43 ERA, 1.22 WHIP over 147 IP).

Corbin is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA on the young season. He’s gone six innings in each outing, and today he faces a Yankees club that is dealing with all kinds of injuries, so the matchup isn’t anywhere near as bad as it might sound like when you first hear it.

Gonzalez has tossed two quality starts in his two outings this season, though eight strikeouts and seven walks ain’t exactly great. The Rays are the lowest scoring team in the AL right now, so the matchup isn’t unappealing.

For more of my thoughts on Cingrani, see my Rounding the Bases column. Oh, he’s facing the pathetic Marlins as well.

By Ray Flowers

Draft Day Challenge, April 16

Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out. With that, here are some of the better plays for Tuesday, April 11th.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

CATCHERS
1. Mike Napoli
2. Welington Castillo

Napoli has started to hit, .263 the past week, and he’s actually up to 11 RBIs in 12 games. Not many have noticed that. He’s facing Ubaldo Jimenez whom he has two hits in three at-bats against in their brief interaction.

The Cubs’ backstop doesn’t have an at-bat against Derek Holland, but he has five hits in his last three games, nine hits in his last seven games, is batting .368 at home this season and .364 on the young season.

FIRST BASE
1. Lance Berkman
2. Chris Davis

Berkman has seven hits in 11 at-bats against Travis Wood. Two of those hits are home runs. Berkman has also started out all kinds of hot with a .389 batting average and 1.111 OPS.

Davis has slowed a bit the last week, he’s only hitting .294 with two homers in that time. Still, he’s got a strong matchup facing off against Roberto Hernandez of the Rays whom he has five hits (one homer) against in 13 at-bats (.385).

SECOND BASE
1. Ben Zobrist
2. Jamey Carroll

Why would I suggest you start a guy who has only two hits in 10 at-bats against a pitcher (Jake Arrieta)? Check out the walk column. Zobrist has eight in 18 plate appearances leading to a .556 OBP. The hits are coming.

Carroll is boring an only someone you want to use if you are looking for a cheap play to fill out your lineup. He’s only got eight at-bats on the year, but he has had a lot of success against Jason Vargas in his career with seven hits in 17 at-bats (.412).

THIRD BASE
1. Pedro Alvarez
2. David Wright

Alvarez is hitting .073 on the season. It’s even worse of late as he is 1-for-16 the past week. So start him against Jake Westbrook. Hey, history says it’s a good move as Pedro has hit .579 with two homers, eight RBIs an a 1.600 OPS over 19 at-bats in the matchup.

Wright has gone deep three times in 13 at-bats against Jeff Francis. He’s also gone 6-for-13 in the matchup with four walks leading to a .462/.611/1.154 slash line.

SHORTSTOP
1. Yunel Escobar
2. Jhonny Peralta

Escobar has been dreadful this season hitting .050 on the road (20 at-bats) and .098 overall. Crazy to play him I know, but he breaks out of his slump tonight against Jake Arrieta who he has seven hits, including a homer, in 16 at-bats (.438).

Peralta has seven hits in 23 at-bats, a .304 average, and he’s gone deep twice against Aaron Harang who is trying to impress his new employers in Seattle. Oh yeah, Peralta is also hitting .370 the past week.

OUTFIELD
1. Jonny Gomes
2. Andrew McCutchen

Gomes has five hits in 12 at-bats against Ubaldo Jimenez who isn’t exactly tearing it up this season. Two of those hits for Gomes were bombs, and he’s knocked in five runs too.

McC has nine hits in 22 at-bats with a big fly and four walks against Jake Westbrook. Andrew is hitting .409 with a cool .500 OBP. Nice.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. A.J. Griffin
2. Chris Capuano
3. Doug Fister
4. Dan Haren

Griffin faces the Astros. That’s always a good reason to start a guy. He also has been very good at home in his career with a 4-0 record, 3.19 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. The Astros have also been averaging 10.1 batters per nine innings this season.

Capuano has a 3.34 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 7.3 K/9 mark in 70 innings against the Padres. The Padres are also hitting just .206 against lefties this season.

Fister has allowed a .212 average, .236 OBP and .346 SLG in 52 at-bats against the Mariners. He’s also allowed just one homer and walked one batter. Add in that he has a 2.77 ERA in two starts this season, and you’ve got yourself a solid starting option tonight.

Haren faces a Marlins team without Giancarlo Stanton. Haren has also struck out 10 batters, without issuing a single walks, in his nine innings this season.

By Ray Flowers

2013 SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio – Experts Draft

I just keep doing fantasy baseball drafts don’t I? Seems like every time I wake up I get my bowl of cereal, my Red Bull (sometimes there is vodka in it), answer a plethora of tweets and emails, and then I end up being in a draft of some kind. Which draft am I talking about in this article? It’s the SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio draft, populated by the genius minds of the network. How did my team turn out? Before I get to that, here are the rules.

12 team mixed league
5×5 scoring
14 hitters, nine pitchers
six reserve rounds (also one DL spot)

Here’s the club.

C: Mike Napoli (9th round), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (18)
1B: Adam Dunn (15)
2B: Martin Prado (6)
3B: Miguel Cabrera (1)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (2)
MI: Andrelton Simmons (21)
CI: Kevin Youkilis (17), Lance Berkman (26)
OF: B.J. Upton (3), Shin-Soo Choo (4), Austin Jackson (5), Melky Cabrera (14), Juan Pierre (16), Dayan Viciedo (22), Rajai Davis (27)
UT: Brandon Belt (20)

STARTING PITCHERS: James Shields (7), Yovani Gallardo (8), Zack Greinke (10), Tim Lincecum (11), James McDonald (23), Wandy Rodriguez (24), Edinson Volquez (25), Francisco Liriano (29 – DL)

RELIEF PITCHERS: J.J. Putz (12), John Axford (13), Chris Perez (19), David Hernandez (28)

It’s important to note a couple of salient points before I dig into my team.

This league has one DL spot. That was part of the reason I wasn’t worried about taking Liriano with my last pick. I’ll stick him on waivers and add another arm in week one.

This league was done on a service that has very lenient rules for positional qualification. Take the case of Prado. He should only qualify at outfield (119 games) and 3B (25), but in this league he also qualifies at shortstop (13) and second (10). I say it all the time, but it’s vital to know the rules of your league, and in this league the following players qualify at more than one spot:

Ramirez: 3B, SS
Prado: 2B, 3B, SS, OF
Napoli: C, 1B
Dunn: 1B, OF
Youkilis: 1B, 3B

No on to the offense.

Napoli and Saltalamacchia might hit a combined .240, but both should go go deep at least 20 times with Napoli having 30 HR upside if he can get 500 at-bats at first base for the Red Sox.

I had the #3 pick and was worried that Ryan Braun and Miguel Cabrera would go 1-2 leaving me to pass on Mike Trout at #3. Luckily Trout went #2 overall so I could draft Cabrera. Dunn is a batting average disaster, but he’s nails in HR, RBI, runs scored. He’s hit at least 38 homers with 92 RBIs and 79 runs scored in eight of nine years. Youkilis should see a nice bounce back at third base in Yankee Stadium, and Berkman was also a late round add who is just one season removed from hitting .300 with 30 homers. Belt has 15/15 talent, and this might be the year he finally lives up to his billing.

Everyone keeps hating on HanRam. Give me that 20/20 talent that qualifies at two spots. I’m a big believer this year. Simmons is likely to bat leadoff for the Braves this season in what could be a potent lineup. I don’t love Simmons this year, but I’ll take that talent in the 21st round. Prado is my starter at second. I’ll take that .300 average and potential 15/15 upside without hesitation.

My outfield is solid. Upton could go 20/40. Choo could go 20/20. Jackson could go 15/25. I’ll take that as a top-3. My fourth is Melky Cabrera. I’m not quite sure how he performs coming back from his PED suspension, but after proving himself to be a .300 hitter the past two years, I took a shot (more on the reason for that below). My 5th outfielder is Juan Pierre. Forty steals and 80 runs, not to mention a .280 average, seem doable. Viciedo never walks, but that’s a 25 homer bat, and I have no idea why Davis was still there in the 27th round. I’ll trade him to someone who needs some speed.

On the hill…

I went earlier for pitching in this draft that I normally do. Why? Because it was where the value was. I didn’t jump into the mix early, the 7th round was my first arm, but look at my top-4: Shields, Gallardo, Greinke and Lincecum. Do you honestly think that each of those four men can’t strike out 200 batters while winning 15 games? People are worried about Greinke’s arm. He was worth taking a shot on in the 10th round (his current ADP is inside the top-60). I picked him up at selection #118. Lincecum? I’ve long been on record expecting a bounce back (see – Is Lincecum Washed Up After Years of Dominance?). Behind that foursome I have another big arm in McDonald, and Wandy Rodriguez is a solid 6th starter. I also added another potential big K arm in Volquez in the reserve rounds. In the pen I also did something I rarely do – I ended up with three closers. I took Putz/Axford because of the value I felt they held, and then much like with Greinke, I just couldn’t pass up Perez in the 19th when others were seemingly afraid to take him cause he might miss the start of the season. I thought Perez was a great value in the 19th round, side issue be damned. Don’t forget that Perez had 36 and 39 saves the last two years. I also tabbed Hernandez as a middle reliever, one who would likely take over if Putz were injured.

Some final thoughts.

I have batting average drains in Dunn, Napoli, Saltalamacchia and Upton. I offset that with the likes of Prado, Miguel Cabrera, Choo, Jackson and Melky Cabrera. I added two all speed guys in Pierre/Davis to help me strongly in steals (not to mention the potential 20 thefts guys like Ramirez, Simmons, Upton, Choo and Jackson). I’ve got youth – Belt, Simmons – and age – Youkilis and Dunn. I really like the balance of this offense.

On the mound, I like it. My top-4, if healthy, will be better than any other top-4 in this league. If my three relievers stay healthy, that’s 100 saves. For not taking a starter early, and not taking a reliever until the 12th round, don’t you think my staff turned out pretty well? Me too.

For the full RESULTS OF THE DRAFT click on the link.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Spring Training Notes

Major league baseball is rocking and rolling with Spring Training underway, so now is a good time to take a little trip around the league to hit on a few of the stories making the rounds.

Mike Carp has been dealt from the Mariners to the Red Sox for a Player to be Named Later or cashola. He’ll likely serve as depth behind Mike Napoli at first base in case big Mike’s hip issue flares up. As for Carp, he’s gone deep 18 times with 71 RBIs in 545 big league at-bats spread over four seasons. He’s got decent pop though he doesn’t hit too many fly balls (33 percent) so that will cap his potential upside there even if he’s given a lot of work. A solid depth add for the Red Sox and a strong late round addition in AL-only leagues.

A follower pointed out today that Matt Holliday had a career worst strikeout total of 132 last year, and he wondered if that was a significant issue that needed to be addressed? My answer? Not really. It’s a concern that he posted a career worst total, but it’s also the only time he’s gone over 105 since 2007. In addition, his K-rate last season was 19.2 percent, a career worst, but only 1.2 percent above his 2011 mark (he appeared in 124 games in ’11 to keep his overall K total a bit muted). As players age they sometimes see an uptick in strikeouts, but Holiday’s overall skill set is very stable and I see little reason to think that he can’t repeat his totals from last season (.295-27-102-95).

Phil Hughes has a bulging disk in his back and he will be shut down for two weeks to let the area heal. There is still time for him to be available in the first week of the season, but as his Player Profile points out, you shouldn’t really care about his health as much as you might think.

Just how overlooked has Juan Marichal been when the discussion roles around to great pitchers of the past fifty years?

Shelby Miller, one day, will likely be a top of the rotation ace. Everyone believes that. Will that happen in ’13? Probably not. In fact, he may not even make the rotation out of camp. That won’t stop some from over drafting him this year though. Perhaps this note will. Miller is dealing with some soreness and tightness in his shoulder. The team believes it’s not a serious situation, but a little hiccup like this could lead to him falling out of contention for the 5th rotation spot, though it’s likely his spot to lose if he performs well.

Ever heard the urban legend of alligator’s in the sewer? Turns out it’s real…

Brett Wallace is going to play first base for the Astros, this according to Bo Porter the manager of the club. Wallace has 709 at-bats as a big leaguer, but he’s never attained the levels of success that were predicted for him when he was drafted. Wallace has hit .250 with a poor .699 OPS while going deep 16 times. He’s been a replacement level bat, simple as that. If he can’t make it happen this season he’ll likely settle in to a depth player for big league clubs for the rest of his career. With Wallace at first, that means Carlos Pena will likely be the DH most days. This seems like an odd choice to me since I don’t know of many baseball people who think that Wallace profiles as a better defensive player than Pena. By the way, Carlos will be looking to return to the 28 homer, 80 RBI level that he flashed each year from 2007-11 before dipping to 19 and 61 last year. Be careful with Pena as we all know he’s gonna kill your batting average (the last time he hit .230 was 2008). Chris Carter is likely to play left field on a regular bases with that power bat of his. He’s gone deep 19 times in just 332 at-bats, but he’s also struck out a whopping 124 times.

Did you know that Jered Weaver led AL hurlers last season with a .214 batting average against? The NL leader was Gio Gonzalez at .206. The #2 man in baseball was Clayton Kershaw at .210.

• Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Proflie: Mike Napoli

Mike Napoli does something very few players who wear the tools of ignorance can do – he strikes fear into pitchers when he strides to the dish. It’s fair to point out that he isn’t a fantastic defender, he’s certainly competent, but when his potent bat is added to the mix he’s one of the unique weapons at the catcher position (it should be noted that he’s also played a lot of first base the past three years). Add in that he was born on Halloween and he has to be a great player, right? Don’t tell that to people that owned Napoli in 2012 though as his effort was seen as a whopper of a downer after his massive 2011 effort (.320-30-75 with a 1.046 OPS). I’m here to tell you though that his ’12 production was right in line with expectations, that is unless you were expecting too much as most of us were.

NOTE: For those of you living in a cave, Napoli signed a three year deal with the Red Sox for a reported $39 million. They plan on slotting him at first base on most days, though he will still see some time behind the dish.

As I pointed out in my 2012 Positional Review of Catchers, Napoli’s power stroke in 2012 was exactly what you should have expected. From 2008-11 he averaged 24 homers. In 2012 he hit 24 homers. Of course people were disappointed when he failed to match his career best total of 30 homers from 2011, but as I always touch on with players, many times their “failures” are based on our unrealistic expectations. Napoli is the poster boy for out of control expectations. How is a guy who matches his previous four year average in anything seen as a disappointment? The real problem is that Napoli can’t convince anyone to give him at-bats. Only once has he been given 400 at-bats in a season, and that’s what’s holding down his power output, not a lack of talent. That will likely change this year in Boston. More on that in a moment.

Napoli saw his RBI total dip from 75 to 56, so again, total failure right? Well, not really. From 2008-10 Napoli averaged 58 RBIs a season. Just like with the homers, this really wasn’t as big a drop off as many suspected.

Napoli’s runs scored drop from 72 to 53 is discouraging. Still, as with his HR/RBI totals, you should have expected a fall off. Not only did his OBP go down, more on that in a second, but he was never a big run producer before. In fact, from 2008-10 Napoli averaged exactly… 53 runs a season.

‘But what about the batting average Ray, how in the world can you explain a .093 point drop and make us feel good about it?’ Other than the .320 average in 2011, Napoli has never hit .275 in a season (that’s six other seasons under .275). Napoli also owns a career .259 batting average. So let’s put it this way. Which number, .320 or .227, is further from his career mark? His .227 batting average last season is .032 points off his career mark while his .320 batting average in ’11 is .061 points off. That’s nearly double the difference from his 2012 mark to his career average. Looking at it that way, which number is the outlier? Exactly.

Napoli saw his OBP tank in ’12 from his career best .414 down to .343. Again, which of those two numbers fits in better with his career given that his career mark is .356? I’m concerned that his K-rate exploded, it was 30 percent last season (25.4 for his career) and that didn’t help matters at all, but the fact is that his 0.45 BB/K rate was right on his career 0.47 mark. Again, 2011 was the outlier, not 2012.

I won’t even bother going through the same analysis for his SLG percentage. I’ll just list the numbers and let you draw your own conclusions: .631 in 2011, .469 in 2012, .507 for his career.

Let me boil this down for you. The 2011 season is the outlier, not everything else Napoli has done for his career. He will never hit .320 again. He will never have a .414 OBP again. He will never have a .631 SLG again. He will never have a 1.046 OPS again. If he could get 500 at-bats he could easily challenge his counting number career bests (30 HR, 75 RBIs and 72 runs scored), and it certainly sounds like the Red Sox plan on giving him those at-bats this season, but the ratio marks are out of reach (this is likely the best time to own Napoli in the fantasy game as a catcher eligible player looking at 500+ ABs). So stop doing what everyone is doing with Napoli – comparing himself to his ’11 career effort. If you remove the season from the back of his ball card his 2012 season shouldn’t be seen as anything other than a solid effort from a power hitting catcher. It’s not Napoli’s fault that your expectations for him were unreasonable heading into 2012, so get over it.

By Ray Flowers

Winners and Losers

  The 2012 season was quite the year. We saw a Triple Crown winner, Oakland stun the Rangers, and Lew Ford make a return from the baseball dead. The fantasy world was no stranger to shocks and surprises this year either. Like no other year in recent memory, the preseason rankings were flipped on their head. Many players greatly exceeded their draft day expectations, while just as many flopped. Here are the three players that disappointed the most in 2012 and the three players that gave their fantasy owners the most bang for their buck.

Disappointments

Adrian Gonzalez drew the ire of each and every one of his fantasy owners this season. He posted only 18 home runs and 108 runs batted in over the course of his disappointing 2012 season. A consensus second round pick or better this spring, Gonzalez failed to live up to his billing and even switched leagues mid-season, much to the chagrin of his AL-only owners. While he was fortunate enough to escape the sinking ship in Boston, he more than likely capsized the season of those who drafted him. Despite the fact that he added outfield eligibility in many leagues and still managed to hit .299, he was unquestionably one of the biggest busts of the 2012 season.

After years of consistent power production, Mike Napoli added batting average to his repertoire in 2011. Coming off a season in which he hit .320, Napoli was among the first catchers off the board this spring. However, if you invested in Mr. Napoli this season you undoubtedly were none too pleased with his efforts. Despite hitting in a potent Rangers lineup, he was only able to post a .227 batting average and 56 runs batted in. Couple this with the comparisons to Adrian Beltre (.321-36-102-95) and Josh Hamilton’s (.285-4-128-103) outstanding seasons and it makes his performance look even worse.

Nobody has fallen from grace quite as quickly as Tim Lincecum. After the previous four seasons in which he recorded 62 wins, well over 200 strikeouts each season, and a pair of NL Cy Young Awards, Lincecum’s 2012 season was an absolute disaster. How bad was it? He finished dead last in the NL in ERA (5.18) and WHIP (1.47) among qualifying pitchers and recorded only 10 wins, the fewest since his rookie campaign. Some have blamed a dip in his velocity for his poor results while others blame it on his unorthodox mechanics. One thing that is undeniable, however, is that The Freak did not return his draft day value at all.

Successes

Chances are if you drafted Mike Trout, you won your league in 2012. Arguably the best player in the game already, Trout posted an unprecedented rookie campaign and is a legit challenger for the AL MVP Award. While Trout was mostly an afterthought on draft day, those who remembered the name were rewarded beyond their wildest dreams as he posted a .326 batting average, 30 homers, and an AL leading 129 runs and 49 stolen bases. As good as he was in 2012, he may only be scratching the surface. Though he will mostly likely miss out on the 2012 MVP award, he almost certainly has one coming in his future.

R.A. Dickey was the story of the season in Major League Baseball. Ranked outside the top-50 starting pitchers coming into the season, all Dickey did was lead the National League in strikeouts (230) and record 20 wins. He pitched three shutouts on his way to the number one rank among fantasy pitchers in 2012 in standard scoring. While there are certainly questions about the sustainability of his success, his ability to overcome personal demons and career journeyman status in 2012 is nothing short of incredible.

This is going to be a tough read for Tigers and Angels fans. While those clubs endured issues in the back end of their bullpens, their former stopper Fernando Rodney, enjoyed a remarkable season. Kyle Farnsworth entered 2012 as the closer for Tampa but a spring injury to the big fella opened a door for Rodney, a door that he slammed shut time after time. After only one year with more than 14 saves in his career, Rodney recorded 48 in 2012 with an ERA under one. He ended the season as the number one reliever and was truly dominant all season long. Rodney was probably not drafted in most leagues, making him the best relief value of the season.

Written By Jordan Hall

2012 Positional Review – Catchers

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

2012 CATCHER Top-10

1 Carlos Santana
2 Mike Napoli
3 Matt Wieters
4 Brian McCann
5 Joe Mauer
6 Miguel Montero
7 Buster Posey
8 Alex Avila
9 Yadier Molina
10 J.P. Arencebia

Santana had a monster second half (.281-13-46-41 in 74 games) that helped him to a strong season in the counting categories (18 HRs, 76 RBIs, 72 runs) even if his batting average of .252 was disappointing. He was the only AL catcher to go 15-75-70.

Napoli had 24 homers exactly matching his 2008-11 average. Too bad he also hit a career worst .227 with his lowest RBI total in three years (56 after years of 68 and 75).

Wieters had an impressive season with 23 homers and 83 RBIs. He was the only catcher in the AL go go 20-80. Like Santana above though, he failed to live up to expectations in the batting average category at .249.

McCann recorded 20 homers for the fifth straight year and six time in seven seasons, but that was his only highlight. He failed to record 70 RBIs, with 67, for the first time ever (not counting his 180 at-bat first season). He scored 44 runs, his first time under 50 ever (other than his abbreviated first season). He hit a career worst .230, only .049 points below his career average. Obviously his injured shoulder was a major issue. Hopefully surgery will fix what ails him but he may not be 100 percent by the start of the 2013 season.

Mauer, in retrospect, should have been ranked higher as he did what he always does. Mauer led all AL catchers in batting (.319) an all catchers in OBP (.416). He was also the only catcher in baseball to score 80 runs (he had 81), he went deep 10 times and drove home an AL position leading 85 runners and stole eight bases for good measure.

Montero started slowly hitting .252 with two homers in his first 41 games, but he closed like gangbusters leading to a second straight season hitting .280 with 15 homers, 85 RBIs and 65 runs scored (.286-15-88-65).

Posey will likely win the NL MVP, but don’t forget that he was coming off a significant leg injury causing everyone to doubt whether or not he would ever return to his previous glory. Boy did he return all right, and then some. Posey led baseball with a .336 batting average while going deep 24 times with 103 RBIs, while he had a .408 OBP an an over the top .956 OPS. He was the most dominating catcher in the game, and if someone tells you otherwise stop talking to them about baseball cause they are a moron.

Avila was a total stinker. He lost 10 homers (down to nine), 34 RBIs (down to 48), 21 runs (down to 42), .042 points in batting average (down to .242) and .155 points in OPS (down to .736). A miserable season that leaves in doubt whether or not he will ever get back to his 2011 levels (.295-19-82-63).

Molina played superb defense, and this season his offense reached never before seen heights with career bests in all the fantasy categories (.322-22-76-65-12). A truly remarkable fantasy season for a player who most had ranked 5-8 spots lower than me.

Arencebia’s season was marred by an injury that limited him to just 347 at-bats, 96 fewer than 2011. He still socked 18 homers with 56 RBIs but he continued to K a ton (108) while never walking (18 free passes) leading to an unacceptable average (.233) and OBP (.275).

Hit: Ryan Doumit (#15), Wilin Rosario (#28)
I singled Doumit and Rosario out as two of my players to target at the position this year after the top-10 were off the board. Boy did they deliver. What did I think that Doumit could do this year? In his Player Profile I wrote the following: “Per 450 at-bats, a total Doumit should reach in 2012 if he can stay healthy, the average Doumit season has produced a 5×5 line of .271-15-61-54-2.” He went .275-18-75-56-0 in 484 at-bats. Rosario led all catchers with 28 homers – in just 396 at-bats. He also knocked in 71 runners and scored 67 times himself in a truly dominating effort that cost you peanuts on draft day.

Miss: Alex Avila

 By Ray Flowers

Movies, TV, Hotties & Baseball

I had an odd weekend. There was less booze than I anticipated. There was less fun than I anticipated. There was about the level of worry on Sunday for fantasy football as I expected (I’m in too many leagues to worry about certain plays or players in Week 1). There was a great novel (The Bourne Supremacy by Robert Ludlum, who by the way was one hell of an author. If you’ve seen the movies with Matt Damon it’s still worth your time to read Ludlum’s three novels as they have little to do, in plot at least, with the Hollywood films). At least there was plenty going on in the world of baseball to hold my attention.

Curtis Granderson has socked 35 homers for the Yankees this year on his way to 86 RBIs and a .235 batting average after his five RBI effort Sunday (he’s also scored 85 times). Still, he’s looked an awful lot like Adam Dunn with his all or nothing approach. Over his last 53 games, that’s a third of a season, Granderson has hit .213 (Dunn is hitting .208 on the year for the White Sox with 38 homers, 88 RBIs and 79 runs scored). The counting stats are great, but that’s an awfully high price to pay in the batting average category.

Nick Markakis will have surgery on his broken left thumb Tuesday. The Orioles are hopeful that they will make the playoffs and hang around long enough for us to see Markakis again this season. Don’t count on that happening. Regardless, Nick’s regular season is over. Thanks to hitting .335 with a .390 OBP over his last 54 games Markakis will end the year with a .298 average and .363 OBP, numbers nearly identical to his career marks (.295 and .365). He’s not an elite fantasy option, but he’s solid an about as consistent as they come.

I watched The Change Up this past week, a stupid film in which Jason Bateman and Ryan Reynolds party, pee in a fountain while drunk, and miraculously change bodies (apparently the fact that they made a “wish” while urinating in the fountain caused the goddess statue in the fountain to grant them their drunk wish – to live the others life. I told you it was a stupid movie). Why the hell would I bring this clunker up? Olivia Wilde. She is, simply put, gorgeous. If you look into those eyes and don’t feel a tingle, you aren’t a lover of women.

Mike Napoli is ready to rock as his quadriceps muscle is finally strong enough for him to go out and perform in game action. He’ll begin his rehab assignment at Double-A Frisco Tuesday. A big time disappointment after being a top-3 catcher selection in nearly every league this year, Napoli has hit just .233 with 17 homers and 40 RBIs this season, light year from the pace that saw him net a .320 average, 30 homers, and 75 RBIs in 2011. Still, Let’s compare his 2010 effort in 453 at-bats, to the pace that his effort this season would net him in 453 at-bats (he actually has 301 this season).

2010: .238-26-68-60 with a .784 OPS
2012: .223-26-60- 68 with a .771 OPS

I don’t see any difference at all there, do you?

Alexei Ramirez was scratched from the White Sox lineup Sunday since he showed up late to the ballpark (maybe he was watching Olivia Wilde in something?). When he has made it to the field on time Alexei has been fairly productive in the second half hitting .284 with a .771 OPS, numbers that are very similar to the .278 and .733 career marks that he owns. With one more homer he will also post his 5th straight 10 homer season, and it will also be his 4th 10/10 season in five years (he stole only seven bags last year or he would have pulled off the double/double in all five of his big league seasons).

If you like spy shows, comedy, cartoons, hell if you have any taste, you have to check out Archer on FX if you haven’t already. It’s flippin awesome — and I hate that word, but it truly fits.

B.J. Upton is trying to put the slow start he had to the season behind him. The elder Upton bashed three long balls Sunday giving him six homers in his last 11 games. His overall numbers include a mere .256 batting average, but he’s driven in 66 runs, has scored 65 times, and has gone 20/20 yet again (21 homers, 29 SBs). This is the third 20/20 effort of his career, the second in a row, and with one more steal he’ll also have 5-straight efforts of at least 30 thefts. He’s a ballplayer that brings everything in the fantasy game, other than batting average of course.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May23, 2012

(1)  Austin Jackson continues to miss time with abdominal issue (check out how good he has been over at Fleaflicker). Team calls up Quentin Berry.

(2) Mike Napoli – has he really been awful this season?

(3) Roy Oswalt close to signing with the Rangers in wake of injury to Neftali Feliz?

(4) Ryan Braun – guess what, he’s a fantasy superstar once again.

(5) Lance Berkman – will knee surgery knock him out longer than 6-8 weeks?

(6) J.J. Hardy dealing with shoulder soreness.

(7) Carlos Pena batting leadoff again.

(8) Red Sox moving parts around with Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis and Will Middlebrooks.

By Ray Flowers