Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your crunk on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what the offer, click on the link to BBGuys Partners with DailyJoust. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Robinson Cano: I feel a bit stupid suggesting you should starts Cano, it’s not like there is anyone out there who doesn’t know he’s a HOF bound second sacker, but in 20 career at-bats against the Red Sox Clay Buchholz he’s racked up nine hits for a .450 batting average.

Ryan Ludwick: I’m not a huge fan, and think the Reds made a mistake not just going with Chris Heisey, but there is no denying the track record of Ludwick against the Cubs as he’s hit .279 with 10 homers, 37 RBI an a .843 OPS in 201 at-bats. He’s been even more dominant at Wrigley hitting .349 with seven homers an a 1.041 OPS in 109 at-bats there.

Ryan Raburn: He has only 12 at-bats against Matt Harrison, but he’s been a superstar in the matchup batting .667 with two bombs, seven RBIs an a 2.026, yes that’s a two, OPS. As you read about, you did read Quick Starting Pitchers right?, I’m not a huge fan of Harrison either.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Ted Lilly: In his first outing he allowed one unearned run to the Padres. He faces Houston Friday, a team he has thoroughly dominated in his career: Lilly is 7-3 with a 2.64 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 7.27 K/9 and a 3.50 K/BB. Toss in the fact that the Astros aren’t very good, and this is a dream matchup on paper.

And for the second straight weeks, two oldies but goodies…

Carlos Zambrano: After allowing one run to the Astros in his last outing, why not go to the well again? Big Z has a matchup with the Nats next, and he’s had a lot of success against that organization in his career with an 8-3 record, 3.35 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 73 Ks in 78 career innings.

Barry Zito: Through 16 innings Zito has allowed 11 base runners (0.69 WHIP), and just two earned runs (1.13 ERA). We all know the dream will end soon, but it may last another start. Zito has a 3.31 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, with 30 Ks in 35.1 innings, against his opponent Friday – the Mets.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Travis Hafner: We’re only talking 12 at-bats here, and that isn’t necessarily enough data to draw any sort of lasting conclusion, but Hafner has four hits, including two homers, against the Athletics’ Brandon McCarthy. Hafner has also knocked in six runners in the matchup while also garnering two walks.

Brandon Phillips: The only thing that seems likely to stop him on Saturday is his bum wheel. In 48 career at-bats against Paul Maholm he has 17 hits, good for a .354 average an a 1.034 OPS. He’s also taken the Cubs hurler deep four times leading to nine RBI. Plus and play with this gu – as long as he is in the lineup.

Martin Prado: Off to a bit of a slow start hitting .250, Prado is a .292 career hitter. He’s also raked against the D’backs in his career going 22-for-60 leading to a .367 average and 13 RBI in 17 games played. He’s also picked up a hit in seven of his last nine games while he’s driven in four runs while scoring four times in his last two contests. Joe Saunders isn’t exactly a dominating opponent either.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Mike Leake: When a guy is 4-1 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.11 WHIP against a team (the Cubs), you had better take notice. Don’t expect a lot of strikeouts, he has just 32 in 50.2 innings against the Cubs, but he should still have an effective outing.

Brandon McCarthy: Last season he went 6-3 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at home. This season he’s made three “home” starts and in that time he’s got a 2.50 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. The matchup with the Indians isn’t a great one on paper given that the Indians offense has been humming along in the early going, but McCarthy is still a solid option given his success in Oakland and his 6-3 record and 1.30 WHIP against the Indians over 16 games, if he can avoid letting Travis Hafner beat him that is.

Mike Pelfrey: The Mets hurler gets to face the less than imposing offense of the Giants. That’s good news for the 6’7” righty who has a 2.18 ERA and 0.99 WHIP against the Giants in six starts. He’ll also be pitching at Citi Field, a place where he has enjoyed a lot of success (19-13, 3.46 ERA, 1.34 WHIP).

CONTESTS

We have partnered with DailyJoust.com to give our users an opportunity to compete in Daily Fantasy games this baseball season and they have a $250 MLB Baseball Freeroll Tournament Friday April 20th starting at 7pm EST.  Here are the details:

Create your team with a 1 million dollar salary cap:
C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, SP.

It’s FREE to enter and there are $250 in prizes up for grabs

Follow these 2 steps to play.

1. To sign up for this, or any game with DailyJoust, simply click on the link just provided.

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Good luck!

By Ray Flowers

Which Pitchers Should You Avoid?

I was having a Twitter discussion today about the Angels’ Joe Saunders, and I said what I always say when asked about him – he just isn’t that good. The other guy pointed out that Saunders is fourth in wins the past two years, and while that’s true, it brought up the point that I always try to make when I talk to people about pitchers – wins are a horrid way to evaluate performance. It’s not 1967 when that’s all people cared about, it’s 2010 and hopefully we are all aware of how useless wins and loses are as a tool to evaluate a pitchers performance (consider Zack Greinke is 0-2 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.11 WHIP while Casey Janssen is 3-0 with a 6.97 ERA and 1.65 WHIP). So what should you look at when it comes to which pitchers you might want to add if they are available or hold on to if they are struggling? Here are some thoughts.

(1) Look for high strikeout pitchers. The floor should be 6.00 per nine, but you really would like to see that number at seven or higher (extreme groundball pitchers can obviously have success with lower rates).

(2) Look for pitchers who keep walks in check. You don’t really want to add anyone with a mark higher than 3.50 per nine innings if you can help it.

(3) Look at pitchers with a K/BB mark of at least 2.00. The higher the better, ideally you’d like to be above 2.50, but be very careful of taking a shot at a guy with a mark under 2.00.

(4) Select pitchers who keep the ball in the ball yard. A HR/9 mark of 1.00 is about big league average.

(5) Power pitchers, who keep the ball on the ground, are the best options. Obviously these are always the ones that go for big bucks on draft day, so at least focus on a hurlers groundball to fly ball ratio (you’ll want it to be at least 1.25).

With those parameters, how do a few of the hotter starting pitchers in baseball this season fair? Here you go.

Mike Pelfrey: 4-0, 0.69 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
6.58 K/9, 4.50 BB/9, 1.46 K/BB, 0.00 HR/9, 1.50 G/F
Grade: 3/5
Pelfrey is one of those guys who relies on a sinker and can confound analysis a bit, but at the same time he has never struck out more than 5.57 batters per nine in a season.

Doug Fister: 2-1, 1.67 ERA, 0.93 WHIP
4.33 K/9, 1.67 BB/9, 2.60 K/BB, 0.00 HR/9, 1.48G/F
Grade: 4/5
Fister will have success as long as his pinpoint control lasts. When it vanishes, he is in trouble given his poor K/9 rate and an impossible to hold on to HR/F mark.

Fausto Carmona: 3-0, 2.96 ERA, 1.13 WHIP
4.28 K/9, 3.95 BB/9, 1.08 K/BB, 0.33 HR/9, 1.38 G/F
Grade: 2/5
Carmona isn’t a strike out pitcher, he is a groundball inducing machine. Oddly, his G/F ratio is currently at a career worst level (2.49 career), but at least he has cut a full batter off his BB/9 mark from the past two seasons.

Mitch Talbot: 3-1, 2.05 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
2.39 K/9, 3.76 BB/9, 0.64 K/BB, 0.68 HR/9, 2.42 G/F
Grade: 2/5
Unless he keeps up that G/F rate, one that would land him in the top-10 in baseball this season, the lack of punchouts will sink him.

Dallas Braden: 3-1, 4.20 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
5.70 K/9, 2.10 BB/9, 2.71 K/BB, 1.20 HR/9, 1.05G/F
Grade: 2/5
Only his impeccable control keeps him from having a score of 0/5. If his BB/9 rate climbs back up to his career level of 2.90, he’ll be down to 1/5.

Livan Hernandez: 3-1, 0.87 ERA, 0.87 WHIP
2.90 K/9, 2.32 BB/9, 1.25 K/BB, 0.58 HR/9, 1.05G/F
Grade: 2/5
Livan is awful. I’m not even going to waste any time describing why – you can read that discussion in my Weekly Mailbag piece.

Jon Garland: 2-2, 2.57 ERA, 1.43 WHIP
6.43 K/9, 4.82 BB/9, 1.33 K/BB, 0.96 HR/9, 1.38G/F
Grade: 3/5
Considering that Garland has never posted a K/9 mark above 5.43 in his 10 previous seasons I feel pretty confident that number will regress in short order, and when it does only Petco Park will keep him from having a grade of 1/5 (it will keep the homers in check).

In the short-run you might be able to get away with a handful of these guys, but sooner or later the percentages will even out, and when they do my bet is that every pitcher on this list will suffer a substantial step back in their performance making them questionable plays in mixed leagues.

By Ray Flowers

Friday Musings

I’m depressed. My Sharks, and yes I’m still claiming them even after the stinker they laid last night, now trail the Ducks 1-0 in their first round series after falling to their rivals from the south 2-0 in Game 1. Look, everyone knows that you can’t win every game, but that doesn’t mean it takes the sting out of things when the inevitable occurs. Still, the way it happened almost made me physically ill. The Sharks, who led the NHL in points (117) as well as posting the best record in the league at home, they lost only five games at the “Tank” all year in regulation (they went 32-5-4), looked awful in an embarrassing shutout loss. They had better bring it in Game 2 on Sunday, and by bring it I mean they had better bring a passion and dedication to sacrifice and lay “it” all on the line, something that they all said they were ready to do this year but barely flashed at all in Game 1. Disappointing.

Joba Chamberlain was awful today needed 93 pitches to make it through only 4.2 innings. Maybe he was drunk. OK, that was tasteless and I want to say I’m sorry, but come on Joba, you’re killing me with these up and down performances. Either bring it or head back to the bullpen. Scratch that. Stay in the rotation. I don’t have much use for my second starting pitcher hurling 98 mph cheese in the 8th inning.

Alex Gordon’s hip surgery was a success and he could be back on the filed shortly after the All-Star break according to initial projections. I can just hear all those people who took my advice and grabbed him to be their starter at third base this season saying something like ‘that’s just dandy.’

Mike Pelfrey will likely be scratched from his next start due to lingering concern over forearm tendonitis. Does anyone in a mixed league care? I’m not ready to predict a Fausto Carmona like fall for Pelfrey this season, but at the same time I really don’t see much of a difference in either guy’s stuff or outlook. Think I’m full of it? Check out the numbers.

Carmona (’07): 3.06 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 5.73 K/9, 2.25 K/BB, 0.67 HR/9
Pelfrey (’08): 3.72 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 4.93 K/9, 1.72 K/BB, 0.54 HR/9

Carmona (’08): 5.44 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 4.33 K/9, 0.83 K/BB, 0.52 HR/9
Pelfrey (’09): OK, it wouldn’t make any sense to list his numbers after just two starts and 10 IP, but the point is that both players rely on sinkers and their defense, and neither one excites me for fantasy purposes. I see Pelfrey at risk, if this injury issue lingers at all, of having a substantial drop off in his performance from last season.

Chris Perez laid a fat pitch in at the knees right over the plate to Alfonso Soriano in the bottom of the eighth inning. As a result, the Cards went from 7-6 lead to an 8-7 deficit as Soriano deposited the pitch in the bleachers. Give the quickness with which Tony LaRussa has made decisions this year we may never see Perez pitch with the Cardinals every again. That statement is clearly hyperbole, but at the same time this outing likely will mute the rush to the waiver-wire to add the since recalled reliever. Speaking of relievers in this game, that Carlos Marmol kid is flat out filthy. His fastball was “only” registering 94 on the gun in his battle with Ryan Ludwick, but for a guy who has a 20-game hitting streak and also one who blasted two home runs earlier in the day he looked completely overmatched in the at-bat. It was good morning, good afternoon and goodnight for Ludwick, all on fastballs that he missed by plenty. Still don’t really get why the Cubs aren’t using Marmol in the ninth every time the need arises and not just here and there like today (what does Kevin Gregg have on Lou Pinalla?).