Operation Zero: The 2013 Hall of Fame Class

'hall_of_fame' photo (c) 2007, numb3r - license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/ I’ve resisted writing about the 2013 MLB Hall of Fame candidates up until this point. Before detailing why it is insane that no players were elected to the Hall of Fame this year, I thought I would simply cut and past some of my tweets from the BaseballGuys’ Twitter feed over the past few days.

So hypocritical – people are busted weekly in NFL for steroids, no one cares. Merriman made the Pro Bowl year he got popped.

We have the Mitchell Report and what else? There’s no way to know what someone did 15 years ago.

Everyone can think what they want, I just think it’s extremely cynical just to assume everyone who is good is guilty.

Did some players use drugs to enhance their performance? Absolutely they did. Do we know everyone who did/didn’t? There is no way to know.

We have to judge players against others in their era. I’m so sick of Everyone accusing Every player of cheating w/o proof.

My point is that we have NO idea who used PEDs and who didn’t. In USA you’re innocent until PROVEN guilty.

Players in the 1970′s all used “greenies” – do we then say everyone in the 70′s is a cheater and should be downgraded?

Can’t we just say the era is tainted and move on? This PED stuff is soooo played out.

Newsflash people – players have cheated since the game was invented.

And this from Dustin Swedelson, a producer at SiriusXM (@dustinswedelson)

Remember when the writers who vote for baseball HOF’s jobs mattered again because of the steroid era? Didn’t hear them investigate then

Here’s my bottom line. We don’t know who did PED’s. We will never know. Baseball needs to decide how it will handle this. (A) We say everyone who played baseball for 15 years can’t be inducted into Cooperstown. (B) We admit that players cheated, compare them against their contemporaries, and judge them based upon their on the field merits. It’s really as simple as that folks. Without evidence, EVIDENCE, we can’t choose to exclude or include this person or that person because of a feeling. Well people can, but it’s grossly misguided and absolutely nonsensical for people to do so. So stop the madness folks. Decide everyone is out or everyone will be judged based on their performance. Short of irrefutable proof that a player cheated it’s an assault on common sense to exclude players simply because you have a “feeling” they cheated. Preposterous.

Here are the actual results of the 2013 vote.

Here are my thoughts on all the players who received at least 10 percent of the 2013 vote.

Craig Biggio (68.2 percent – 75 percent is needed for election): One of the scrappiest player of the last 30 years, Biggio came up as a catcher, won four Gold Gloves at second base, and then moved to the outfield later in his career. Other than a guy like Pete Rose, who has done that at the level of Biggio? Craig is 15th all-time in runs scored, 21st in hits (3,060) and fifth in doubles. Heck, he even went deep 291 times in his career. He should be enshrined.

Jack Morris (67.7 percent): His support continues to grow, but it’s revisionist history. The guy may have thrown a ton of innings and come up big in some big games, but my HOF has no place for a pitcher who never led the league in WHIP or ERA, and only once led his league in strikeouts (232 in 1983). Heck, he was never even the runner up for the Cy Young Award.

Jeff Bagwell (59.6 percent): My thoughts can be found in The Case for Bagwell.

Mike Piazza (57.8 percent): How in the world can the greatest hitting catcher of all-time not be in the HOF? From 1993-2002 an average Pizza season was a .322 average, 35 homers, 107 RBIs, 85 runs scored and an OPS of .969. How many elite level players ever have a season that good once? – and he did it for a decade. While catching.

Tim Raines (52.2 percent): A travesty he’s not been elected. See HOF: Tim Raines.

Lee Smith (47.8 percent): I gave my thoughts on closers in What is a HOF Closer? The 478 saves are amazing, and his longevity is impressive (13-straight years with at least 25 saves from 1983-95). I’m not overly impressive by guys that throw one inning though. I’m even less impressed by a guys save total as saves are a result of opportunity (we all know some teams use their “better” pitcher in a setup role). A 8.73 K/9, 2.57 K/BB, 3.03 ERA and 1.26 WHIP just don’t do it for me.

Curt Schilling (38.8 percent): He was dominant in the post-season going 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA and 0.97 WHIP and that’s great, but someone shouldn’t be in or out based on 133.1 playoff innings. Won “only” 216 games but had a solid .597 winning percentage, and for his career his ERA+ was 127 meaning his 3.46 raw ERA was 27 percent better than the league average, an impressive number. He also struck better than 8.5 batters per nine, and for his career his 4.38 K/BB ratio is elite (it’s the best ever for a pitcher who threw 3,000 innings). He’s in – barely.

Roger Clemens (37.6 percent): One of the 10 greatest pitchers of all-time if you judge base on the numbers. An MVP award, seven Cy Young’s, 9th all-time in wins, 3rd in strikeouts and his ERA+ was 143, forty three percent better than the league average (his raw ERA was 3.12, his WHIP 1.17). The case against him is certainly there, but I’m still putting him in.

Barry Bonds (36.2 percent): There may be no more conclusive case about PED use for a player than the case with Bonds. Fourteen All-Star games, eight Gold Gloves, seven MVP awards – separated by eight years (his last of the ‘first’ cycle was in 1993 and his first in the ‘second’ cycle was 2001). First all-time in homers, 3rd in runs, 4th in RBIs, 6th in OBP, 6th in SLG and 4th in OPS. Oh yeah, he also stole 514 bags. One of the three greatest offensive forces the game ever saw. He’s out, and it’s a shame, but honestly, this call is more an indictment of baseball than Bonds.

Edgar Martinez (35.9 percent): See the argument in Is There Room for a DH?

Alan Trammell (33.6 percent): A really good player who had four Gold Gloves and six All-Star games nods. Still, he only finished as a top-5 MVP vote getter once, only had two 20 homer seasons, only one 100 RBI effort and just three seasons of more than 85 runs scored. Really good, but the Hall of Fame is for great – even if he was a very good fielder.

Larry Walker (21.6 percent): My best guess is that he will never be voted in, not because of PED use, but because people hold Coors Field, pre-humidor, against him. He finished his career with more homers than Joe DiMaggio (383 to 361), had more RBIs than Roberto Clemente (1,311 to 1,305), had more runs scored than Barry Larkin (1,355 to 1,329), a better batting average than Manny Ramirez (.313 to .312) and a better OPS than than all but 15 other men who played the game (.965). He’s also the only man since 1930 to have three straight seasons of hitting .360 (1997-99). Based upon the numbers he’s gotta be in, but with only a handful of huge run producing seasons, only four 140 games seasons, and the Coors Field effect, he’s as close as you can get for me without being included.

Fred McGriff (20.7 percent): See the discussion Is McGriff Hall Worthy?

Dale Murphy (18.6 percent): My favorite player as a kid, and even better than his work on the field is the fact that he is an amazing human being who never once had a hint of scandal. From 1980-89 here are Murphy’s ranks among all players: 2nd in extra base hits, 2nd in HRs, 2nd in RBIs and 4th in runs. He also won 2 MVPs, was named to the All-Star team seven times and he won five Gold Gloves. One other plus. In 1980 Murphy was catcher eligible in fantasy baseball (27 games at C in ’79). He went .281-33-89-98-9. Just barely outside without a key to the door. He will have to hope the Veteran’s Committee votes him in as his 15 years on the regular ballot are up.

Mark McGwire (16.9 percent): An admitted cheater. From 1987 through his final year in the big leagues (2001), here is how McGwire ranked in a myriad of categories for that 15-year stretch: McGwire hit 580 homers, the most in baseball (Barry Bonds had 551). McGwire had 1,405 RBI, third most in baseball (Bonds had 1,494). McGwire had a .590 SLG, the third best mark in baseball (Bonds and Manny Ramirez led the way at .594). McGwire had a .985 OPS, fourth in baseball (Bonds at 1.017). I’ll leave him out since he admitted cheating, but even so, I’m inclined to cast my vote in favor of his election given his work on the field. Being honest actually works against McGwire… does that seem right to you?

Don Mattingly (13.2 percent): Mattingly had a very short peak as an elite hitter (before his back went bad), but from ’84-’89 here are his big league rankings: 3rd in AVG, 1st in 2B, 1st in EBH, 1st in RBI, 6th HR, 5th OPS. Mattingly also won nine Gold Gloves for his work at first base. A great player but he’s on the outside looking in cause his elite performance didn’t last long enough.

Sammy Sosa (12.5 percent): Everyone “knows” he cheated, but unlike McGwire he never admitted it (famously Sosa acted like he couldn’t speak English when he was called in front of Congress). From 1994-2003 here is what an “average” Sosa season looked like: .290-47-122-104-13 with a .958 OPS. Since we don’t have “proof” that he cheated, he goes in on my ballot. Remember, I’m not voting people out because we “know” a guy was dirty.

Finally, two articles.

A very informative piece from the NY Times entitled Hall of Fame Has Always Made Room for Infamy.

Jayson Stark’s Take on what the HOF has become.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Wilin Rosario

'Dinger, Colorado Rockies mascot' photo (c) 2006, Paul L Dineen - license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/ Wilin Rosario came out of relative obscurity to lead all major league catchers in home runs last season with 28 big flies (one more than A.J. Pierzynski). I for one was called out for spending $8 on him in the LABR NL-only league last season. Obviously I had the last laugh on that one. Even so, I’m reluctant to suggest Wilin will be able to match or exceed that power effort in 2013, and that means I’m pumping the breaks just a bit with the outlook of the Rockies’ catcher.

Let’s dig right into it and break down those big flies which are the reason that Rosario stood out so much last season. The position many will take will have two parts. (1) This guy plays half his games in Colorado which is a huge boost to a player’s power output. (2) He’s only got 133 games of big league experience under his belt so the best could easily be yet to come. Point by point.

(1) Rosario hit 18 of his 28 taters at home. That a player had success hitting in Colorado is about as obvious as suggesting that Lacey Chabert is mildly attractive (she’s amazing if you ask this scribe). Coors Field was, according to Park Indices, the 3rd best park in the NL for right handed power hitters to bang one out in 2012 (it was 20 percent better than the league average).

(2) Here’s where the problem comes up. Some history.

In 395 minor league games Rosario went deep 61 times. That breaks down to 21 homers per 135 games. So far in his big league career he has gone deep an average of 32 times per 135 games. I think we’re looking at a small sample size skewing the numbers, don’t you? Maybe you don’t, that’s probably why you think I’m off in suggesting that Rosario isn’t likely to maintain his homer pace from last season. Are you aware that he went deep 28 times in 396 at-bats last season? If he kept up that pace over 500 at-bats we’d be talking about a 35 homer season. There have only been three 35 homer seasons by a catcher in the 21st century by the way (Mike Piazza had two, Javier Lopez had one).

Normally when a guy hits homers at this pace it’s got a lot to do with his ability to convert fly balls into bleacher reachers, and that is the case with Rosario. After posting a 21.4 percent HR/F mark in 16 games in ’11 he backed that up with a 25.5 percent mark in ’12 leaving him with a 25.0 percent career mark. How impressive is that number? Only six other men in baseball were able to post a mark of 25.0 percent in 2012 if they accrued more than 400 plate appearances. Is Rosario this type of elite power hitter? His minor league career track record say it’s possible as he was able to also post a HR/F ratio of 24.1 percent in the minor leagues the past two years. Still, I’m always reluctant to subscribe an elite number to a player with such little experience.

Let’s say that I’m only 80 percent right which would be about 30 percent better than I normally am. Let’s say that Rosario’s HR/F rate regresses to 20 percent in 2013, still an elite number (I should point out that only 22 men in baseball had a 20 percent mark last season in a season of 400 plate appearances). The real issue is that Rosario simply doesn’t lift the ball enough. The big league fly ball rate is about 36 percent. Last year Rosario’s fly ball rate was 36.5 percent (career 36.9). He’s merely a league average fly ball hitter (the last two years his fly ball mark in the minors was about 30 percent). If he doesn’t maintain his elite HR/F ratio then he will struggle to go deep 25 times, even with a season of 450 at-bats (he had 396 last year remember). It’s not that he won’t have a shot to go deep 25+ times in 2013, it’s just that a lot of things will have to break for him to get there.

As for his batting average he hit .270 last year, just ahead of his .267 career minor league mark. That’s pretty standard fair for a catcher, especially one with power, so there’s no reason to be overly concerned. However, there’s also little to go on if you are expecting growth in this category. Wilin, and yes the guy spells his name with on “L,” posted a line drive rate of 17.5 percent in the minors in 2011. He then followed that up with a 17.3 percent mark in 2012 leaving his 133 game big league ledger at 17.6 percent. It’s pretty clear this guy isn’t wrapping out liners like the second coming of Larry Walker. A 17 percent line drive rate is well below the big league average of 19-20 percent, and it’s indicative of a .262 hitter (his career mark). Rosario has also whiffed a lot, 119 times in 450 big league at-bats, and that also doesn’t speak to growth in the batting average category.

Rosario is a solid option at catcher for the 2013 season. Much like Salvador Perez though (see Perez’s Player Profile), I fear he will be over-drafted in 2013 (I ran a poll about the relative value of Wilin on the last day of the 2012 calendar to illustrate my point). Rosario should not be drafted with the expectation that he will substantially improve upon last years numbers. In fact, I’m not even suggesting that it would be wise to expect a full repeat of his 2013 efforts unless he racks up 100 more at-bats to help mask the per at-bat drop off. Like I wrote, Rosario is a solid option behind the dish but his breakout 2012 effort is his ceiling for now.

 

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Mike Napoli

'Dottie Schroeder, catcher, shouting play ball behind mask' photo (c) 1948, Florida Memory - license: http://www.flickr.com/commons/usage/
If you don’t love yourself, who else will? Given that fact, here is a direct quote from my 2011 BaseballGuys.com Hitter Capsules from April 1st, 2011.

“For three years Mike Napoli has bashed his way to 20 homers despite an average of 354 at-bats a season. Few catchers can match his power. Adding the dimension of playing first base last season allowed him to post a career-high at-bat total, and one would think that if he ever was given 500 at-bats that he might be capable of posting that elusive 30 homer season.”

Napoli didn’t get those 500 at-bats. In fact, he didn’t even get 400. Hell, he didn’t even get 375 as he finished the year with 369 at-bats. I know he was hurt for a while there, but the Rangers horribly mismanaged him this season and as a result almost torpedoed what ended up being a magical season.

I don’t know if you noticed it, but Napoli hit 30 homers. Thirty. That’s a homer every 12.3 at-bats. If he had maintained that pace over 500 at-bats, and I’m pretty certain he couldn’t have, he would have hit 41 homers. As a result his .631 SLG was the best in baseball for a player who had at least 400 plate appearances. The power has always been his calling card, but in 2011 he also added a batting average.

Napoli, who had never hit better than .273 in a season and owned a career mark of .251 entering the year, hit .320. Not .230 but .320 (Joe Mauer owns a career mark of .323). He hit lefties (.319) and righties (.320), he hit at home (.307) and on the road (.332), and he hit at night (.318) and during the day (.324). He isn’t a .300 hitter, his BABIP this year was .344 or .041 points above his career rate, but he cut his strikeouts to a career low 19.7 percent of his at-bats, so he showed some improvement. Thanks to the lack of punchouts and a solid walk rate his BB/K mark was a well worth the price of admission at 0.68 leading to a superb .414 OBP (Mauer owns a career mark of .403). Amongst players with at least 400 plate appearances this year Napoli’s .414 mark was 5th best in baseball.

Adding his work getting on base and his ability to produce extra bases, Napoli posted a 1.046 OPS, the second best mark in baseball for a player with 400 plate appearances (Jose Bautista was 1st with a 1.056 mark).

So let’s put things in historical perspective. How many catchers in the 21st century have hit .320 with 30 homers an a 1.000 OPS? The answer is three.

.320-30-1.046 – Napoli this year
.324-38-1.012 – Mike Piazza in 2000
.328-43-1.065 – Javy Lopez in 2003

Piazza had 545 plate appearances.
Lopez had 495 plate appearances.
Napoli had 432 plate appearances.

Think it’s about time that (a) Napoli gets his due and (b) someone gives the guy 500 at-bats?

By Ray Flowers