Insanity Reigns Supreme

In what follows you will read the tale of the best agent in baseball, a solid third basemen who is being paid as if he is the second coming of Mike Schmidt, and how a team with no chance of winning their division in 2011 is willing to dump $14 million into three moderately effective relievers.

Beltre to AL Champs

Now I’ve seen it all.

Middle relievers are getting multi year deals for more than $5 million a year, which is bad enough, but this whole Adrian Beltre situation has me totally befuddled until I read two words – Scott Boras. Somehow Beltre’s agent, Mr. Boras, has convinced the Rangers that they just had to have Beltre. Not only that, he’s convinced them to pay more than the $80-85 million Beltre was seeking as current reports put the deal he is on the verge of signing with the Rangers at 6-years and $96 million (see Postcards from Elysian Fields). Oh the deal isn’t done, and it does appear to have some language in it that could void the sixth year, but it seems like a near lock that it will get worked out. So here are my questions.

(1) Is Beltre worth that much money? I certainly don’t think so and I’ve written just that multiple times including an in depth look at the player in The Curious Case of Adrian Beltre. Give it a read before you think that the Rangers are spending their money wisely.

(2) How in the world did Mr. Boras get the Rangers to go six years and nearly $100 million on Beltre given that there seemed to be only one other team even remotely interested in Beltre? The Angels were the other team, but they reportedly pulled their 5-year, $70 million offer off the table when Beltre dragged his feat on accepting it. The Athletics long ago pulled out of the sweepstakes, and their offer was 5-years and $64 million according to reports. So again, I ask, how was Boras able to get six and 96 from the Rangers when no one else was reportedly within $25 million of that offer? There may be no person on the planet better at their job than Mr. Boras – not one.

(3) I can grant you that Beltre is a better defensive third baseman than Michael Young, but really, why the Rangers need to add Beltre to take over third and push Young to DH? Wouldn’t it have been more fiscally prudent just to leave Young at third and to bring free agent Vladimir Guerrero back to DH? Not only would they have saved something like $75 million compared to what they had to lay out for Beltre, their offense would likely have been just as good in 2011. Are the few runs a year that Beltre will save at third base worth the untold millions extra they are paying him?

(4) And finally, for the gazillionth time:
Beltre has one 30 homer season.
Beltre has two 100 RBI seasons.
Beltre has hit better than .290 just twice.

To compare – Aramis Ramirez has four 30-HR seasons, five 100 RBI efforts, and he has hit better than .290 six times, and few have ever considered him to be an elite option despite the fact that his offensive highs have dwarfed the efforts of Beltre.

Seriously, I just don’t get it.

Orioles Finally Sign Gregg

The Orioles finally got their man as they signed Kevin Gregg to a 2-year deal worth $10 million. According to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun, there is also a vesting option for a third year. For more on Gregg and his recent solid work on the hill spend a few moments looking over Hot Stove: Not Everyone is Greedy.

How does the end of the game look for the Orioles? They already have power lefty Michael Gonzalez in the pen, and he clearly can handle 9th inning work. I know he was injured last season and limited to just 24.2 innings last season because of injury, so the Orioles do need to make sure they have an alternative to Gonzalez. But still, they are paying him $6 million in 2011, and that is quite the cost for a setup man (and obviously, more than Gregg will be making). The Orioles did the smart thing and locked up control artist Koji Uehara for a mere $3 million on a one year deal (I say mere because of the aforementioned spending spree that GM’s went on this year with middle relievers). However, Uehara also had arm issues last season, and it’s unclear if he will be able to pitch every other day out of the bullpen. Uehara and Gonzalez are scheduled to make $9 million this year. Toss in another $5 million for Gregg and you are talking $14 million for those three arms in 2011. I guess in today’s age that isn’t too much to pay for a moderately successful closer, an injury prone lefty, and a guy who has thrown a total of 110.2 innings at the big league level.

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By Ray Flowers

Hote Stove: Not Everyone is Greedy

Relievers continue to get paid, Adrian Beltre is the last big bat on the free agent market, and a handful of mid-level offensive players have found their homes for the 2011 season.

Adrian Beltre: He wants something like $80 million dollars. He shouldn’t get it. However, he might, as the Angels have been unable to attract any of the options they were hoping to land (Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, Josh Willingham etc.), while losing Hideki Matsui to the Athletics (Hot Stove: Lee Isn’t Only Newsmaker). Will they capitulate to the demands of the incomparable super agent Scott Boras who has likely tried to convince them that Beltre is better than Mike Schmidt? The Angels would be wise to read The Curious Case of Adrian Beltre where I point out how Beltre had one other “special” season in his career which, by pure chance I’m sure, just so happened to come right as Beltre was heading into free agency.

Kevin Gregg: Will he and the Orioles ever get this thing figured out? The two sides have been linked for weeks now with an offer of $8-10 million over two years reportedly being floated his way. Why has Gregg balked at what seems like a reasonable deal? The recent contracts given to Scott Downs (3-years, $15 million), Matt Guerrier (3-years, $12 million), Jesse Crain (3-years, $12 million) and Bobby Jenks (2-years, $12) certainly aren’t helping the Orioles (for more on Jenks give Hot Stove: Signings Galore a read). “It’s fair to say that we’re still in discussions with a few teams and Baltimore is one of them,” said Danny Horwits, Kevin Gregg;’s agent. Say what you will about Gregg, but the fact remains that he is one of only seven relievers in baseball with at least 23 saves in each of the last four seasons. With middle relievers getting such huge deals, you can’t blame Gregg for holding out for more.

Orlando Hudson: Sorry David Eckstein, but with Padres pending addition of Jason Bartlett and today’s signing of O-Dog (2-years, $11.5 million), it might finally be the end of the road for you. I for one have no issue whatsoever in tipping my cap to you. The fact you were able to accomplish so much with so little is flat out amazing. As for Hudson, can we please, finally, put this guy to rest as a solid fantasy option? Every year he is over-drafted, but the simple fact of the matter is that he is nothing more than a replacement level fantasy option, if that. He does own a career .280 average, but he has averaged only eight steals the past eight seasons, hasn’t reached double-digits in homers since 2007, has never knocked in 70 runs, and only twice scored 80 runs. Great defender, great guy, and a wonderful role model, but in terms of his fantasy value he is middling at best, especially now that he will call Petco home.

Bill Hall: Let us all shed a tear for the end of the Jeff Keppinger / Tommy Manzella era in Houston. How could the club look to replace the best up the middle duo since Trammell and Whitaker? Obviously it’s because of the vast improvement they were able to make through the trade and free agent market (wink, wink). A month ago the club signed Clint Barmes to play shortstop, and I wrote about just how poor an idea that was in AL CY and Two Deals. Not content with that brilliant move, the Astros then went out and added Bill Hall off the free agent market on Friday signing him to a 1-year deal for around $3 million dollars to play second base. Hall has power, I won’t dispute that, but he has hit just .225 over the past three years while striking out 32 percent of the time. That’s ain’t good. I have little doubt that Barmes will go deep 15 times or that Hall could approach 25 homers playing everyday, but what are the Astros doing to their teams ability to score runs? As it stands today, if we assume the club will go with Carlos Lee at first base which seems like their current plan (sorry Brett Wallace), here is how their infield would shape up in terms of their 2010 OBPs.

C: Jason Castro (.286), Humberto Quintero (.262)
1B: Carlos Lee (.291)
2B: Bill Hall (.316)
3B: Chris Johnson (.337)
SS: Clint Barmes (.305)

To compare, the big league average in 2010 was .325. That’s right, only one of those players was even league average last year in his ability to get on base. Better get one of those disaster survival kits Astros’ fans, there could be some significant scoring droughts this season.

Xavier Nady: Signed to a 1-year deal for $1.75 million with the D’backs. Nady will likely be asked to play some first base and left field, and to add some pop to a team that has lost its two best power bats from 2010 (Adam LaRoche who is a free agent and Mark Reynolds who was dealt to the Orioles). Nady wasn’t at full strength last year after Tommy John surgery, so the Diamondbacks are willing to cut him some slack for his poor performance (.256-7-31 with a .660 OPS in 236 at-bats). Nady hit 25 homers while batting .305 as recently as 2008, but he has only one other 20 homer season on his resume. Still, this was a nice low cost addition by the D’backs, and he does makes a fine NL-only option.

And finally, the strange case of Kerry Wood…

As I referenced above relievers, even middle relievers, have been getting ginormous deals this offseason. So what is your reaction when you hear that Wood signed a 1-year deal for $1.5 million to play for the Cubs? My reaction was utter shock – I couldn’t have been more caught off guard if a Playboy Playmate had shown up on my doorstep wearing a Santa suit and holding a bottle of champagne (sorry, that’s always been a fantasy of mine). Come on, honestly, isn’t a hottie on my doorstep a more reasonable expectation than Wood signing for a mere $1.5 million? Apparently he really missed Chicago, so I give him credit for leaving millions to return to Chicago (apparently he really wanted to pitch for the Cubs and not the White Sox who reportedly offered a 1-year deal for $3.5 million). Wood will serve as the primary setup man for Carlos Marmol in Chicago, and if he pitches anything like the hurler who had a 0.69 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 31 Ks in 26 innings with the Yankees this could turn out to be the best contract given by a club this offseason.

By Ray Flowers

Glaus Signs With Braves

Troy Glaus is the newest member of the Atlanta Braves after signing an incentive laden one year deal with the club ending his tenure with the Cardinals (early estimates place the deal at $2 million plus whatever incentives he reaches). Does the former slugger have any juice left?

A first round pick, third overall in 1997, Glaus broke in with the Angels and in his first full season he socked 29 long balls. Over the next three years (2000-02) he socked 47, 41 and 30 taters, each year also knocking in over 100-runs, before injuries began to strike. In 2003 he was limited to 91 games, and the following year things were even worse with a mere 58 games played. In 2005, his only year with the D’backs, he re-established himself as a power force with 37 HR and 97 RBI, totals just under what he produced in his first season in Toronto (38, 104). His second season in Toronto (’07) was once again filled with injury as he was limited to 115 games. He again rebounded in his first year in St. Louis hitting 27 homers with 99 RBI before a completely wasted 2009 season that saw him take the field only 14 times.

Why did he play a career-low 14 games? His shoulder, operated on in January, simply never came around to the point where he could make the throw across the diamond from third base. The Cards tried him in the outfield for a while thinking it would be less strenuous on his arm making the odd throw from the outfield, but that idea was eventually scrapped. Given the deterioration of his wing, Glaus has pretty much been pigeonholed as either a first baseman or a DH, and given that St. Louis has a pretty fair option at first in Albert Pujols, he really had no place in St. Louis. Hence the move to Atlanta makes sense as he will be asked to play first base after the Braves decided to let Adam LaRoche walk.

At this point what does Glaus have left? Honestly, that is anyone’s guess. A shoulder is so vital to a players swing that an issue in the joint could easily sap the power from a player’s swing by hindering his ability to whip the bat through the strike zone. Given my personal fondness for Glaus, unintentionally my swing was basically a mirror image of his (or was his a copy of mine, I mean I am three years older), I wish the man luck. However, this is a tenuous situation. The Braves reportedly went over every scrap of medical data they could get their hands on and they were apparently assured that Glaus would be able to physically hold up to the rigors of the season. While I have a hard time believing Glaus will be able to suit up for 140 games and match the production that LaRoche would have offered, the club did save millions of dollars that they can allocate for other needs. And heck, what if Glaus rebounds to the hitter he once was? After all, he has been pretty darn good in his career.

* Glaus has won two Silver Slugger Awards.

* Glaus has made four All-Star teams.

* Glaus has four seasons of at least 37 homers. By the way, there are only two third basemen who have ever lived that have more 37 homer seasons (Mike Schmidt had seven, Eddie Matthews had six, and Harmon Killebrew also had four). Moreover, every season of his career in which he has accrued 500-ABs (there have been seven), Glaus has hit at least 27 bombs

* Glaus has six seasons of at least 97 RBI.

IF Glaus is healthy, and I put that “if” in caps for a reason, the Braves may have rostered a nice power bat on the cheap. However, if I was the Braves I’d have a Plan B at the ready because I’m far from convinced that Glaus will be able to return to the heights he has previously flashed.

A RECAP OF THE DEAL

By Ray Flowers

The Case for Jim Thome

Late last week I touched on how I thought it was time that we gave Ken Griffey Jr. more respect than we have of late given the latest performance enhancing drug scandal surrounding Sammy Sosa (you can read all of my thoughts in Death of the Hero?). In that piece I also mentioned, briefly, the name of today’s discussion and that is Jim Thome, who, remarkably unnoticed, has gone about producing one of the most impressive power hitting careers in the history of baseball.

That last statement isn’t hyperbolic in nature by the way. Consider the following data points with Thome.

(1) In his last 12 seasons of at least 400 at-bats, he had only 193 in an injury plagued 2005 campaign, Thome has hit at least 30 home runs.

(2) In those 12 seasons, Thome has knocked in at least 85 runs, and 11 times he has posted at least 90 RBI.

Let’s put those numbers in context.

Thome has 12 seasons of 30 home runs and 85 RBI. That just so happens to be the third most such seasons in baseball history behind only Hank Aaron (14), Mike Schmidt (13) and Babe Ruth (13). Moreover, his total of twelve 30-HR seasons is tied for the fourth most in history (Aaron leads the way here as well with 15).

(3) Thome has averaged, per 162 games in his career, a .278-40-112-107 line. Think about it this way – do you know how many seasons matching all four of those numbers that Albert Pujols has produced in his astounding career? Four. And remember, that is Thome’s average over his career per 162 games.

(4) Thome has always been a remarkable on base machine with a .406 career OBP. Amongst hitters who have accrued at least 3,000 plate appearances in their career that number places Thome in 46th place all-time. By the by, his OBP has been at least .385 in 12 of the past 14 seasons. Ryan Howard has only two seasons above .360 in his career.

(5) Thome is the proud owner of a .559 SLG in his career. Amongst hitters who have accrued at least 3,000 plate appearances in their career that number places Thome in 19th place all-time. Justin Morneau has only one season that high, and it was exactly .559 in 2006.

(6) Thome’s career OPS is a superlative .965, the 18th best mark in league annals for a batter with at least 3,000 plate appearances. Fellow teammate and slugger Jermaine Dye has only one full season where his mark has bettered that when it was 1.006 in 2006.

So when we add that all up, here is what we come up with.

Thome is eighth on my all-time “clean” home run list (you can find the list at the link at the start of the piece), 46th in OBP, 19th in SLG and 18th in OPS. Toss in his 1,459 runs scored that are 73rd all-time and his 1,527 RBI that are 46th all-time, and this is what we have.

Thome is one of just 11 players in baseball history to hit 400 home runs, knock in 1,500 runs, score 1,400 times and post an OPS of at least .950.

Given all that, does Thome deserve to make the Hall of Fame? Being that his power seems nothing more than corn-fed from growing up in the heartland of American (he was born in Illinois), you seriously have to consider the man for enshrinement in the Hall. The biggest negative is the fact that he has functioned as a DH late in his career though in 2,216 career games he has appeared at first base 1,101 times and third base 492 times, so it’s not like he has been a DH only weapon for the majority of his career (to compare Reggie Jackson, who cannot match Thome’s lifetime numbers, is in the Hall despite 630 games at DH versus Thome’s total of 633). If the voters can look past his merely average batting average of .278, and consider that his name has never been linked to performance enhancing drugs, then I think this lefty swinging slugger has a great shot at having a plaque one day in Cooperstown.

By Ray Flowers