Back in the Saddle

For those of you that missed it, The Oracle spent three days in the hospital with a dastardly case of the flu. He’s still not even close to 100 percent, but he’s going to do his best to get back on it today. Let’s see how he does.

Tony Cingrani has shocked me with his success thus far (1.50 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 14.00 K//9, 7.00 K/BB). I’m still not sold, which I know sounds crazy given his success. However, he cannot keep up the K-rate. He cannot keep up the walk rate (2.00 per nine). He cannot continue to hold batters to a .188 average. He cannot continue to have a BABIP of .278 with a 24 percent line drive rate. He’s also still throwing his fastball 81 percent of the time. Deal him at his apex before he pulls a Jose Fernandez (I dealt Cingrani for Chris Sale in one of my leagues – a steal if you ask me). By the way, Johnny Cueto will make his first minor league start Friday as he works his way back from a lat issue. He’s likely about two weeks away. As for Fernandez, I issued my warnings when he made the big league club. He’s 20 years old and entered the season without a single outing above High-A ball. What the heck were you expecting from him? Given those two facts, and those two alone, you should be really pleased with his five outings thus far that have led to a 8.63 K/9 mark and 1.29 WHIP. I know you aren’t but that’s your fault for having too high of expectations.

Carl Crawford will sit out Wednesday and Thursday (a day off) to nurse his tender hamstring. After a whopper of a start his production has slowed drastically, but his slash line is still elite. Seriously. Take a look: .308/.388/.516. He has a better average than Carlos Gonzalez. He has a better OBP than Paul Goldschmidt (.387). He has a better SLG than Buster Posey (.488). See what I mean?

Starling Marte has been killing it. Just look at his .327 average and .395 OBP. However, there is a real downside. The seven steals are fantastic, as is the batting average, but here comes the rug being pulled out. (1) He’s on pace for less than 15 homers. OK, you can live with that given the rest of his performance. (2) He’s on pace for about 60 RBIs. OK, you can also live with that given his overall work. (3) He’s taken seven walks in 26 games. While that is better than his pace last year of eight walks in 47 games, it’s still awful. (4) His strikeout rate has dipped from 27.5 percent last year to 22 percent this season, but neither number is great. When combined with his terribly low walk rate his 0.27 BB/K ratio this season is still dreadful (the big league average is about 0.45). The highest batting average last season by any player in baseball with a mark of 0.27 or less was .293 by Alcides Escobar. I doubt Marte will hit even that well given the stage of development he is currently at (also note that Escobar hit .254 in 2012, tis the nature of players who show no patience and strike zone judgement).

To see how others are evaluating players don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

Hyun-Jin Ryu had 12 punchouts Tuesday night giving him 10.99 K/9 this season. NO ONE, not a single person in baseball, thought he was going to do that. I’m going to agree with everyone and side with this being a random run of greatness. I’m still thinking that there will be a pullback in the K-department. Been impressed by his efforts this season no doubt, but over his head is he (that was Yoda speak for those of you who missed it).

Way too early to draw any conclusions, but Mike Trout is hitting .261 with a .766 OPS. He’s on pace for about 12 homers, 95 RBIs, 90 runs and 25 steals. Since September 1st of last season he’s hit .276 with a .368 OBP and .467 SLG over the course of 56 games. He’s also hit only seven homers while stealing 11 bases.

Chien-Ming Wang will stay with the Yankees organization. Does anyone care? Maybe the Yankees do, but the last time he pitched 100 innings in the big leagues was 2007.

Early Season Standouts

It’s early and I continue to preach patience in the fantasy baseball game. Hopefully you’re able to heed that advice. Whether you’ve made one move or 11 thus far is irrelevant though to what follows in this piece. I’m just gonna randomly touch on some players that have stood out to me in the early going, so here goes.

Chris Denorfia is a 4th outfielder who doesn’t play every day, but boy can he hit when called upon. Chris is hitting .395 in 38 at-bats this season and dating back to the start of last season he has hit .303 with a .357 OBP over 386 at-bats. He doesn’t have a ton of pop, 11 homers in that time, but he also has a sneaky 15 steals. He’s a great option in NL-only leagues.

Doug Fister improved to 3-0 Tuesday as he lowered his ERA to 2.77 (he also owns a WHIP of 1.10). Overlooked because of his flashy teammates and lack of elite numbers, some have neglected to note that Fister has been very impressive as a Tiger, and I’m not giving him props cause I have nothing else to do. Through 252 innings with the Tigers Fister is 21-11, has a 2.93 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Oh, and that 4.48 K/BB ratio is over the top good. When will he get the respect he deserves Detroit? Isn’t R E S P E C T by Aretha Franklin, one of those that made Detroit into Motown, a song that you should all be singing?

Jedd Gyorko is expected to remain the starter at second even with Chase Headley returning to action. Alex Amarista is lurking if Gyorko continues to struggle, so the question becomes will the rookie continue to struggle or will the Padres eventally turn to Amarista (don’t forget about Logan Forsythe either as he is working his way back from injury)? Jedd has flashed his solid plate discipline, his 0.73 BB/K ratio is proof of that, and he’s still getting on base at a better than league average rate with a .339 OBP even though he’s hitting .240. Still, he’s yet to go deep in 50 at-bats so many are likely disappointed with his effort.

Matt Kemp has never been at a lower place than he is right now. Kemp is hitting .185 with 17 Ks and no homers in 14 games. You know what I say? Buy that guy on the cheap. A breakout is, without question, coming.

Victor Martinez had three hits Tuesday to push his average up to .200. The guy is a .302 career hitter who has hit at least .302 his last three seasons. V-Mart will hit, jujst give him time. Remember, he missed all of last season with that knee injury and it takes some time to get back in the groove. Buy him on the cheap if you can.

To see how others are evaluating players don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

Jordan Pacheco hit .309 last year. He has hit .306 for his career. He’s batting .304 this season. It’s only 582 at-bats in total for the guy, but I think it’s safe to say that he is one of the better depth plays in NL-only leagues. If he ever got full-time work…

Fernando Rodney had 48 saves last year with a historic 0.60 ERA. There’s no chance he’s gonna repeat that. I know, way to go out on a limb. So far he’s allowed five hits and walked a batter while getting just eight outs leading to a 10.13 ERA and 2.25 WHIP. It’s far too early to panic, especially after his great WBC, but don’t say I didn’t warn you.

Pablo Sandoval is fat. Pablo Sandoval is loveable. Pablo Sandoval can hit. Through 13 games he is batting .320 with 14 RBIs. He’s also struck out only three times on the year.

Mike Trout is a player I’ve written extensively about. You all know my thoughts on him. If we allow that he will maintain his current pace over 150 games he would produce the following 5×5 line: .300-11-54-86-11. Obviously even I think he will do much better than that. However, I think it’s fair to be concerned that he has attempted only one steal in 14 games after running 54 times in 139 games last season.

Barry Zito… told you so. Zito was lit up for nine runs while recording eight outs Tuesday against the Brewers. That horrific outing leaves him with a 4.86 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, numbers that aren’t that far off his 4.15 and 1.39 marks of last season.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Beat – Cleaning the Glass & Rounding the Bases

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray start off talking about some NBA players that could see some increased minutes because they are playing on teams that are out of it. They also talk some general Free Agents to pickup for your playoff stretch. It’s now time for Trevor to quit complaining about NBA because he gets to talk some fantasy baseball. The guys discuss some key draft strategies people need to pay attention to.

NBA: Gerald Henderson, Wesley Johnson, Isaiah Thomas, Tiago Splitter

MLB: Tiering, Positional Qualification, PEDs, Lonnie Chisenhall, Jeff Keppinger, Chase Headley, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun, Mike Trout

LISTEN TO THE AUDIO.

Player Profile: Albert Pujols

Albert Pujols will be in the Hall of Fame one day. He is one of the most consistently excellent hitters that that the game has ever seen (only Alex Rodriguez, with 13, has more consecutive seasons with 30 homers and 99 RBIs than Pujols who is at 12 and counting heading into the 2013 season). Pujols is third all-time in MVP Shares (6.90) behind only Barry Bonds (9.30) and Stan Musial (6.96) thanks to three MVP awards and 11-straight years in the top-10 in voting (he fell to 17th last season). Pujols is also 2nd in WAR – everyone’s favorite new measure even though less than one percent of people know how to figure it out – among active players according to BaseballReference.com. Pujols is also going in the top-10 in virtually every fantasy baseball draft this season. I’m going to burst that bubble and let you know that Pujols’ just isn’t the lock he once was, despite the prevailing wisdom, to return his draft day cost. I know Mike Trout is amazing, and the addition of Josh Hamilton to support Pujols is huge, but folks, there is skills slippage with Mr. Pujols.

Let’s start the bashing right off the top, shall we?

Pujols has seen his batting average go down, down, down. Here are his batting average marks the past five years: .357, .327, .312, .299 and .285. That’s four straight years of a declining batting average. Moreover, his .292 batting average the past two years is 28th in baseball and .033 points below his career mark.

Pujols has seen his OBP go down, down, down. Here are his OBP marks the past five years: .462, .443, .414, .366 and .343. That’s four straight years of a declining OBP. Moreover, his .354 OBP the past two years is 38th in baseball and .060 points below his career average.

Pujols has seen his SLG go down, down, down. Here are his SLG marks the past four years: .658, .596, .541 and .516. That’s three straight years of a declining SLG. Moreover, his .528 SLG the past two years is 11th in baseball and .080 points below his career average.

Are you nervous yet? All three of those categories are well above big league average and still very solid marks, but the consistent decline the past few seasons should, at the very least, give you some pause that Pujols is a lock as a top-10 fantasy selection in 2013 (truth be told, I don’t have Pujols as my first or second ranked first sacker this year in my rankings. You can find a link to those rankings at the bottom of this piece in the Draft Guide link).

Some further disturbing trends.

Pujols has averaged 34 homers the past two seasons after averaging 41 homers his first 10 seasons. He’s also dipped from an average of 123 RBIs and 119 runs over the first decade of his career to an average of 102 RBIs and 95 runs the past two seasons.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

Pujols, from 2001-10, posted a walk rate in the double-digits every season. The last two years that mark has been 9.4 and 7.8 percent. To put that last number in perspective, in 2008-09 his walk rate was 16.3 percent more than doubling his mark from 2012.

From 2003-09 Pujols had a K-rate in the single digits. In two of the past three years that mark has been 10.9 and 11.3 percent. The 11.3 percent K-rate from last season is his worst mark since his rookie season back in 2001.

In each of the past three years Pujols has failed to reach his career average with his HR/F ratio. He’s also had three of the four lowest marks of his career the past three years. A career 19.2 percent HR/F ratio has fallen to 18.3, 18.3 an a career worst 14.0 percent the past three seasons.

Pujols hasn’t reached his career 19.0 percent line drive rate since 2008. That’s 4-straight years of less than his career average with his line drive rate (you have to be noticing the trend by now).

His rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone continues to increase. A career 22.9 percent mark in this category has swelled to 27.5, 31.8 and 36.4 percent the past three years. That’s a pretty scary increase. As a result, pitchers are throwing him less strikes than ever before. Not only did he see a career low 43.1 percent of pitches in the strike zone last season, he’s failed to see his career average of 47.8 percent each of the past five years.

If you believe his birth certificate, Pujols is 33 years old, an age where some regression is to be expected. Therefore, I’m not the least alarmed at the picture I’ve painted above. What we are seeing here is normal. The problem becomes not his declining production but the expectation that Pujols is somehow going to recapture his past glory. ‘But Ray, with that great lineup around him in Anaheim, surely you think Pujols has another great season in him.’ I would say he has another season in him of excellent production. Is that production first round type of stuff in the fantasy game given the clear downturn in so many of his measures? I’d say the answer to that question is – maybe. Pujols is a lock to be productive if healthy, and I’m not saying he’s going to be Chris Davis in 2013, but I’m merely pointing out that your expectations have a better chance of being reached if you look at the Pujols of the past two seasons and remove thoughts of the .330-40-120-115 guy we are used to seeing at the dish – especially since his knee is still giving him all kinds of trouble.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Drew Stubbs

Drew Stubbs was dealt from the Reds to the Indians this offseason in a deal highlighted by Shin-Soo Choo heading to Cincinnati (Trade Breakdown: D’Backs, Indians, Reds). In case you missed it, here is a Stubbs fact from that piece that many may not be aware of: over the past three seasons that Stubbs has averaged 17 homers, 86 runs scored and 33 steals. So let me ask you, how many guys do you think went 17-86-33 in 2012? Let me save you the trouble of looking it up. There weren’t’ ten guys, nor seven, nor four, nor three. The answer is one. Only one man in baseball hit 17 homers with 86 runs scored and 33 steals, numbers that Drew Stubbs has averaged the past three years. The answer is Mike Trout (Stubbs fell short with 14 homers, 75 runs and 30 steals). Should you be paying more attention to Stubbs on draft day than his current ADP in the 250 range suggests?

Stubbs is coming off his worst full season as a big leaguer. Still, he hit the same amount of homers as Alex Gordon, scored the same amount of runs as Giancarlo Stanton and stole the same amount of bases as Ryan Braun. And that was Stubbs worst effort in three years.

Stubbs isn’t a big power hitter, but he hit 22 in 2010 and clearly has show himself to be a 15-20 type of threat. The move from Cincy to Cleveland isn’t likely to help – according to Park Indices the past three years right handed batters in Cleveland have a 72 mark in the homer category (28 percent below league average) while in Cincinnati that mark is 143 (the best in the NL) – so it would be best to set exceptions at the 15 or so level this year.

Are you old enough to remember the Rubik’s Cube?

As for the steals, Stubbs has stolen at least 30 bags in each of his three full seasons (he’s one of only six players over 30 each of the last three years: Michael Bourn, Coco Crisp, Rajai Davis, Jose Reyes and B.J. Upton are the others). He’s a tremendous athlete with speed to burn, so there’s little reason to think he won’t extend his streak to four years, especially since his career success rate is over 80 percent.

The runs scored, now there is an area that he should be productive in yet again, though there is something we need to talk about despite Stubbs’ solid totals in that category (91, 92 and 75 runs the past three years), and it also happens to lead right into the biggest concern with Stubbs.

Stubbs owns a career .241 batting average and .312 OBP. Those are terrible numbers that fall well below the league average during his career as a big leaguer (.261 and .329). Given those marks his ability to steal bases and to score runs is in question. Miscast as a top of the order hitter for long stretches with the Reds, he’s hit leadoff or second in the order in 286 of 486 career games, he’s likely best suited to be a #6 hitter. If he does indeed hit lower in the order in Cleveland remember that each successive spot in the batting order that a player drops he loses 15-20 plate appearances over the course of a season. If Stubbs hits 6th all year, for example, that’s likely to lead to roughly 90 or so fewer plate appearances than if he were to bat leadoff. Fewer plate appearances mean less times to run, and likely fewer chances to cross home plate.

Now to the hulking pink elephant in the room. Stubbs’ batting average.

Who wouldn’t want an outfielder with 17 homers, 86 runs scored and 33 steals on their team? Would you still want that guy if he was a career .241 hitter?

Stubbs is never going to produce in the batting average category. Never. However, it’s not at all a stretch to think that his .213 mark from last season will be a lower water mark for his career. Just look at two simple factors to explain what happened. (1) After 3-years with a BABIP mark of at least .325 the mark fell to .290 in 2012. (2) The owner of a nearly a 19 percent line drive rate heading into last season Stubbs saw that number fall to 14.9 percent. If his BABIP and line drive rates go back up, as they should, his batting average should rebound. Now by “rebound” I’m still talking about a mark that may not reach the league average which was .255 last season. The reason is obvious – Stubbs strikes out more frequently than I do at a bar on Friday night. For his career Stubbs averages a strikeout every 3.05 at-bats. That means he’s pretty much going to average more than a strikeout a game. Last season he struck out 166 times, a three year low, but he also had fewer plate appearances than the previous two years. The truth of the matter is that his 30.5 percent K rate was a career worst (career 29.3 percent). Stubbs will never stop striking out. His average will never be impressive. He has to hope that his manager understands that and doesn’t bench him for it.

Stubbs is an elite athlete who is one year removed from 40 steals and 92 runs scored. There are certain holes in his game, there’s no way to whisk that away, but there is still value to be had here because so many have been scared off his trail. If you draft Stubbs in a mixed league you will have to augment his addition with a couple of big batting average bats, but as a fifth outfielder Stubbs profiles as a player who might just return a tidy profit this season.
 

By Ray Flowers

The 2013 BaseballGuys.com Fantasy Baseball Guide

Are you looking to be a Fantasy Baseball Champion in 2013 like the San Francisco Giants were major league champs last season? If so, you’ve come to the right place.

What can you look for in the 2013 Baseball Guys Fantasy Baseball Guide? Plenty. Here are some highlights of the topics that will be covered in great detail to help arm you with all the data you will need to dominate the competition in 2013.

PITCHERS
Pitchers – What numbers should you be targeting when assembling your staff?
Closers – How do you evaluate them?
Which middle relievers should you target?
Should you be concerned when young pitchers see major innings pitched increase?

HITTERS
Hitters – What numbers should be your baseline for analyzing hitters?

ROOKIES
Which rookies are likely to make a significant fantasy impact in 2013?

FANTASY GAMING
Auctions – How to rules.
FAAB – How to rules.
Top-300 – Why should you avoid using such a list?
Punting Categories – Does it make sense?
Points Leagues – How should you handle them?
Head-to-Head – Why they are poisoning fantasy baseball?
Category Targets – What levels should you be looking at?

INFORMATIVE ARTICLES
Mike Trout – Why he has no chance to repeat his phenomenal rookie campaign.
R.A. Dickey – Why he has no change to repeat his phenomenal 2012 season.
ABA – A new way to evaluate pitchers designed to replace WHIP.
SWIP – Why strikeouts and walks are so important.
PWSA – How do you compare players who are all power or all speed?
SABR Primer – What are these sabermetric measures and what do they mean?
Either/Or – Which players should you target on draft day?
Did You Know? – An article point to some interesting facts.
10 Questions – Ten must know questions are answered for each position.
Predictions – Who will win the awards in 2013?

MOCK DRAFT
Fifteen experts in the field go at it in a mixed league draft.

PLAYER CAPSULES
C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS: 50 players at each position with mixed league dollar values.
OF: 150 players ranked
Starting Pitchers: 150 Ranked
Relief Pitchers: 75 Ranked

All told over 600 players ranked! PLUS…

There are CHEATSHEETS with rankings/dollar figures for: MIXED, AMERICAN LEAGUE ONLY & NATIONAL LEAGUE ONLY LEAGUES

HOW DO YOU GET YOUR COPY?

So how do you get this whopper of a deal? There are two easy ways for you to get the more than 145 pages of data for the 2013 season (it’s actually way more than that when you add in the rankings).

OPTION #1 – Thanks to a partnership with Fanduel.com, you can get your copy of the 2013 BBGUYS Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide for just $10 (don’t forget that last year the $8 Guide was only 55 pages long). So for $2 more than last year’s Guide you not only get more than 90 pages over what you got last year, you also get FREE money at Fanduel.com. What am I talking about? When you follow the below link to Fanduel.com you will be taken to a sign-up page. Simply sign up with the site for $10. When you do you will receive two things.

The BaseballGuys.com Draft Guide.
$10 FREE dollars to spend at Fanduel.com.

So not only do you get the Draft Guide you also get $20 dollars to spend at Fanduel.com (your deposit and the FREE $10 Fanduel.com is giving you. Please note, if you DO NOT follow the link below, it could take several days for you to receive the draft guide).

CLICK HERE TO PURCHASE THE GUIDE FOR $10.

(You can have a Fanduel account already in existence and be eligible for the $10 deal, but if you have ever deposited $ into it then you are ineligible for the $10 deal. In this instance the only way to obtain the Guide would be to order it through the BaseballGuys website for $14.95)

ALSO… make sure the promo code BBGUYS is in the promo code box. It needs to manually be entered if you are ordering from your phone.

For those of you that don’t know what Fanduel.com does here is brief primer. Fanduel.com is a daily salary cap fantasy game. You go to Fanduel.com, select a lineup for that day only, and then play it out. You can do this as many times a day you as like keeping the same lineup if you like or changing it with every entry. When you win the daily league, and I’m sure you will win given the advice you are about to unlock with the Draft Guide, you win REAL MONEY from Fanduel.com.

So you can look at this option two ways.

A) You spend $10 to play games at Fanduel.com and get a FREE Draft Guide.
B) You spend $10 to buy the Draft Guide and get $10 FREE to spend at Fanduel.com.

Talk about a win-win.

OPTION #2 – If you prefer to purchase The Guide without the bonus’ that Fanduel is offering there is another avenue you can take.

On the right hand side of the BaseballGuys page, near the top, is a YELLOW DONATE tab. Simply click on the tab, donate $14.95 through Paypal, and The Guide will be on it’s way to you within hours.

Not enough of a deal to entice you? How about this added little bonus (I feel like someone on an infomercial).

Everyone that purchases The Guide will be able to get one free update of the player rankings (this counts whether you go through Fanduel or through BaseballGuys directly). Get The Guide now, study it, take in all it has to offer. If you’d like up updated version of the rankings at any point – and the rankings are updated on a daily basis as needed – here is what you will need to do.

(1) Send me an email at fantasyfandom@yahoo.com.

(2) The email should include a copy of your receipt from PayPal or Fanduel. I’ll then send you a file with the updated player rankings right up until Opening Day.

How much better is that than going to the store to buy a magazine that was printed six weeks ago and is stale by the time your draft gets underway?

One final note. I know some of you might balk at having to pay for The Draft Guide. However, if you follow my work at BaseballGuys.com you will know that everything I do here is entirely free. So don’t just think of it as you’re buying an $10 or $14.95 Draft Guide. Think of the investment that includes a year long subscription with it as well – yet another bonus you will received for being a loyal follower of BaseballGuys.com (you should also be following the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account).

TESTIMONIALS

Here are some responses from those that purchased The Guide in 2012.

The BaseballGuys Draft guide is so Amazing I had to take the afternoon off of work to finish reading it. – @AndyNelson97

First time donating to you and this Baseball Guide is brain-candy for analytic minds. – @DaveE926

Ray & draft guide are full of it…Full of enough tips, tricks, and rankings with updates in the future to take me to the top. – @achiabotta

I won my league last year with Ray’s draft guide and advice. If you think $8 is to much? Let me tell you it is super cheap for what you get in return. – Jamie

How dare you charge $8 for your draft guide??? should be at least $18 – @rotoexpertMRath.

I am a returning member and support The Oracle & The Fantasy DRIVE on Sirius. Two years ago the Guide was $3 (I would have paid $15). Which means $8 is a complete value and will help me win three separate titles. – Scott

I sent the $8 donation to @BaseballGuys just for how accessible he is on twitter. – @AlZeidenfeld

Wanted to thank you for all your help this season, answering every question I had. I ended up winning my H2H league yesterday. Key picks taken from your draft guide: Edwin Encarnacion, Alejandro De Aza, Kenley Jansen (let everyone else fight for J. Guerra) and Paul Goldschmidt. Your draft guide also enabled me to focus on the better arms specifically in relief over the people who were named closers to start the season. Anyway, all your hard work and time you put in every single day of the season helped me win a championship. Also learned a big lesson this year how to look beyond the basic stats of a player to determine value. Thanks Again  – Joe M

*PLEASE ALLOW A FEW HOURS FOR DELIVERY.

Player Profile: Bryce Harper

What Bryce Harper did last season was amazing. Anytime a player hits 22 homers with 18 steals and 98 runs scored that is one heck of a season. When a player does that as a rookie it’s a rather remarkable season. When a player does that as a 19 year old it’s a season for the record books. Will the next great one build on a special rookie season in year two, and if so, how far up the mountain can he climb in 2013?

A look at some facts from 2012.

Bryce Harper hit 22 homers. Only one player 19 or younger ever hit more – Tony Conigliaro had 24 in 1964.

Bryce Harper had 59 RBIs. That is the 8th highest total ever for a player 19 years of age or younger (Phil Cavarretta had 82 in 1935).

Bryce Harper scored 98 runs. Only one player 19 or younger scored more (Buddy Lewis had 100 in 1936).

Bryce Harper had 18 steals. Only one player in the Modern Era (since 1901), 19 or younger, has ever stolen more bags (Ty Cobb stole 23 in 1906).

Bryce Harper had a .817 OPS as a 19 year old. No one 19 or younger ever had a better mark in a season of 502 plate appearances.

Given those facts, Harper must be looked at as an elite talent capable of immense things, the same point of view every person that has ever watched him play a game on the baseball field agrees with. This 19 year old kid was two steals and two runs from a 20/20, 100 season. Hell, Alex Rios and Carl Crawford have never done that. The question with Harper is how good will he be?

If we remove his name and age and just focus on the numbers, here is what we find.

He struggled against lefties hitting .240 with a .300 OBP and mere .415 SLG. He also struck out 51 times in just 183 at-bats against lefties.

He posted a BB/K mark of 0.47 which is basically league average. When he swung at a pitch that was thrown inside the strike zone he made contact 87 percent of the time, a solid number for a player who also owns a 20.1 percent K-rate.

His GB/FB ratio was 1.35, a bit higher than the league average. Moreover, his 33 percent fly ball rate was two percentage points below the league average making his homer total pretty impressive. The reason he was able to go deep 22 times was due to a solid 16.2 percent HR/F ratio. Anyone who has ever watched him hit knows that is a number he is more than capable of repeating and/or improving upon moving forward.

But we cannot remove the name on the back of the jersey from this discussion, can we? Much like the case with Mike Trout, these two players are once in a generation talents who just so happen to be starting their careers at the same time. Is it fair to either, particularly Harper since that’s who this piece is about, to treat him like every other youngster who has ever played the game? If I was to do that I would say that we should expect some moderate growth in year two. The average may not improve much, not until he cuts down the walks a bit and learns to be a bit more patient, but a repeat is well within the realm of the possible. I would also say that looking at the totality of the evidence that another run to 20/20 would be possible, though I would be a bit concerned about there being any homer growth since the fella didn’t hit as many fly balls as I would like to see.

Again though, is it fair to do this? Can we simply remove our beliefs/eyes when it comes to a generational talent like Harper? Do we change the way we evaluate players because of who Harper is and the fact that he accomplished so many amazing things as a mere 19 year old? That’s the exact point that analysis breaks down and the data might not be sufficient to explain what we are witnessing.

Is Harper capable of hitting .300?
NO. At this stage of his development he can be pitched to. If pitchers hit their spots they can not only get him out, but make him look bad in the process.

Is Harper capable of hitting 30 homers?
YES. Will he? Not without hitting more fly balls.

Is Harper capable of 20 steals?
YES. He nearly got there last year as a player with no big league experience an as one who got base at a .340 clip.

Is Harper capable of 80+ RBIs?
YES. The Nationals would seem to have a pretty stacked order, but it will still be tough for him to knock in 80+ runs if he hits out of the #2 hole (his spot for 117 of his 139 games last season).

Is Harper capable of 100 runs scored?
Duh. He had 98 last season. Hitting second obviously helps him in this category.

So what would you pay on draft day for a guy who could go .280-25-75-100-20. An awful lot right? I’m not saying that Harper will hit all five of those numbers. I’m also not saying he’ll fall short in all five categories. I merely use those numbers as a way to illustrate how most people will be viewing him on draft day which means if you want to roster Harper this year you will have to be willing to spend a top-25 selection. I don’t think I will be able to join that party. I know that he is an immense talent who we might one day look back on and be able to tell our children that we saw him play from the first day of his career, but I also know that he is only 20 years old and has a total of 139 games played at the big league level. I’d rather spend a top-25 selection on a player that I felt more secure about producing across the board than on Harper, even if there is a good chance that he ends up fulfilling those lofty expectations in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

MLB: Monday Madness

I love the Player Profiles, digging deep into a player and trying to ferret out whether or not expectations are too high or too low for the guy. Alas, I don’t want to become monotonous in the way that I cover the world of baseball, so I’m throwing a change up. Today I’m gonna touch on a handful of stories that have cropped up over the last 24-48 hours and give my take on players as diverse as Oswalt, Pujols, Trout, Marcum and Webb.

Shaun Marcum is still without a team, though Jon Paul Morosi is reporting that the Padres, Pirates and Rangers are all showing interest in the righty hurler of late (the Indians, Royals and Twins have also been mentioned as possible landing spots). There are issues concerning his health, he was limited to just 124 innings last season and has a history of issues with the wing, but whenever he is on the hill he’s been a damn fine big league hurler (last year’s 3.70 ERA and 1.27 WHIP were both four year highs). If Marcum’s healthy he’s an ideal #4 starter with SP3 upside.

Roy Oswalt hasn’t decided if he wants to pitch this season, but it sounds like even if he does return he may pull a Roger Clemens and only pitch for half the year. Oswalt was a huge letdown last season in his 59 innings with the Rangers posting a 5.80 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Given that his career numbers are 3.28 and 1.20 you can see just how off the rails things were last year. It may be hard to tell given how bad he was onteh surface, but Oswalt still did some awfully nice things last year. He struck out a better per inning. He posted a 1.68 BB/9 mark which was a six year low. The result was a 5.36 K/BB ratio which was his best mark since his rookie season of 2001. He had a GB/FB ratio of 1.42, only four hundredths below his career mark an actually a four year best. He was done in by a career worst .378 BABIP (just .079 points above his career mark) and by a HR/F ratio of 18.6 percent (in his previous 10 seasons only twice did that ratio even reach double-digits). If he wants to, if he’s motivated and healthy (his back is an issue), he can still help out plenty of teams on the hill.

Have you ever had a Mexican torta? I’m getting me one for lunch today from the local taqueria.

Justin Smoak hasn’t lived up to expectations – about as obvious a statement as saying that Mike Trout is a really good baseball player (more on Trout below). The Mariners have brought in vets this offseason, and if guys like Jason Bay, Raul Ibanez and Kendrys Morales are up to speed, it’s possible that Smoak would be without a spot in the daily lineup (what do you expect when you’ve hit .223 with a .683 OPS over 355 career games). The Red Sox, still uncertain about how the Mike Napoli situation is going to play out, have apparently reached out to the Mariners to gauge whether or not the club might be willing to deal the first baseman. Smoak still could end up being a productive run producer, think Carlos Pena at the dish without the walks, though that would obviously be a significant issue for Smoak since he’s shown an inability to get on base (career .306 OBP).

For the hell of it – puppies.

Mike Trout continues to be the early leader for the #1 selection in fantasy leagues according to ADP. I knew it would happen, didn’t we all, but I’m still a bit surprised by it. How anyone could take him over Ryan Braun and Miguel Cabrera is beyond me.

The D’backs still sound like they want to deal Justin Upton. I just don’t get it. For more on this situation check out my piece entitled Pujols at End of Road? That article also gives a rundown of what you should be thinking about Mr. Pujols heading into 2013.

Brandon Webb is drawing a bit of interest on the market with the latest team reportedly kicking the tires being the Rockies. Webb is just the type of arm that the Rockies covet as he’s a guy who disdains the fly ball. For his career Webb owns a 64.2 percent ground ball rate, and each of the six seasons he threw at least 180 innings that mark was at least 61.8 percent. Unfortunately he last threw a big league pitch in 2009, and even then it was just four innings worth of throws. Webb has had surgery and been doing his best to get his arm back in shape – his shoulder is the issue – so I wish him luck. The odds are about as strongly against him as possible in his bid to return to big league baseball though.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: November 19, 2012 – Awards

(1) Buster Posey the runaway winner of the NL MVP Award.

(2) Why did Miguel Cabrera dominate Mike Trout in AL MVP voting?

(3) Why did R.A. Dickey dominate in NL Cy Young Voting?

(4) David Price defeated Justin Verlander and Jered Weaver for the AL Cy Young.

(5) Bryce Harper narrowly edged Wade Miley for NL ROY.

(6) Mike Trout the 8th unanimous winner for AL ROY.

(7) Oddities in voting. Who are some of these voters?

BBWAA – Award Info.

By Ray Flowers

Winners and Losers

  The 2012 season was quite the year. We saw a Triple Crown winner, Oakland stun the Rangers, and Lew Ford make a return from the baseball dead. The fantasy world was no stranger to shocks and surprises this year either. Like no other year in recent memory, the preseason rankings were flipped on their head. Many players greatly exceeded their draft day expectations, while just as many flopped. Here are the three players that disappointed the most in 2012 and the three players that gave their fantasy owners the most bang for their buck.

Disappointments

Adrian Gonzalez drew the ire of each and every one of his fantasy owners this season. He posted only 18 home runs and 108 runs batted in over the course of his disappointing 2012 season. A consensus second round pick or better this spring, Gonzalez failed to live up to his billing and even switched leagues mid-season, much to the chagrin of his AL-only owners. While he was fortunate enough to escape the sinking ship in Boston, he more than likely capsized the season of those who drafted him. Despite the fact that he added outfield eligibility in many leagues and still managed to hit .299, he was unquestionably one of the biggest busts of the 2012 season.

After years of consistent power production, Mike Napoli added batting average to his repertoire in 2011. Coming off a season in which he hit .320, Napoli was among the first catchers off the board this spring. However, if you invested in Mr. Napoli this season you undoubtedly were none too pleased with his efforts. Despite hitting in a potent Rangers lineup, he was only able to post a .227 batting average and 56 runs batted in. Couple this with the comparisons to Adrian Beltre (.321-36-102-95) and Josh Hamilton’s (.285-4-128-103) outstanding seasons and it makes his performance look even worse.

Nobody has fallen from grace quite as quickly as Tim Lincecum. After the previous four seasons in which he recorded 62 wins, well over 200 strikeouts each season, and a pair of NL Cy Young Awards, Lincecum’s 2012 season was an absolute disaster. How bad was it? He finished dead last in the NL in ERA (5.18) and WHIP (1.47) among qualifying pitchers and recorded only 10 wins, the fewest since his rookie campaign. Some have blamed a dip in his velocity for his poor results while others blame it on his unorthodox mechanics. One thing that is undeniable, however, is that The Freak did not return his draft day value at all.

Successes

Chances are if you drafted Mike Trout, you won your league in 2012. Arguably the best player in the game already, Trout posted an unprecedented rookie campaign and is a legit challenger for the AL MVP Award. While Trout was mostly an afterthought on draft day, those who remembered the name were rewarded beyond their wildest dreams as he posted a .326 batting average, 30 homers, and an AL leading 129 runs and 49 stolen bases. As good as he was in 2012, he may only be scratching the surface. Though he will mostly likely miss out on the 2012 MVP award, he almost certainly has one coming in his future.

R.A. Dickey was the story of the season in Major League Baseball. Ranked outside the top-50 starting pitchers coming into the season, all Dickey did was lead the National League in strikeouts (230) and record 20 wins. He pitched three shutouts on his way to the number one rank among fantasy pitchers in 2012 in standard scoring. While there are certainly questions about the sustainability of his success, his ability to overcome personal demons and career journeyman status in 2012 is nothing short of incredible.

This is going to be a tough read for Tigers and Angels fans. While those clubs endured issues in the back end of their bullpens, their former stopper Fernando Rodney, enjoyed a remarkable season. Kyle Farnsworth entered 2012 as the closer for Tampa but a spring injury to the big fella opened a door for Rodney, a door that he slammed shut time after time. After only one year with more than 14 saves in his career, Rodney recorded 48 in 2012 with an ERA under one. He ended the season as the number one reliever and was truly dominant all season long. Rodney was probably not drafted in most leagues, making him the best relief value of the season.

Written By Jordan Hall