Let Tuesday Roll

I’m all over the place today (seems like I’ve written that before). So I thought what better way to lead off my grab bag o’ thoughts than to just put it – so there it is.

For all the posturing and good news about the health of Carlos Beltran’s knee, word from the Mets is that he will not start his minor league rehab assignment this week. In fact, some reports seem to suggest that he is still running with a limp at times. I’m still not counting on him being back until the All-Star break, so even if he does somehow return before that point I won’t be counting on much production.

Ryan Braun has an OPS of .865 which is, remarkably, less than guys like Austin Kearns (.877), David DeJesus (.871) and Luke Scott (.868). Come on Mr. Braun, get her in gear buddy. Speaking of getting it in gear, how wretched has Prince Fielder been this year? Fielder has 24 RBI, the same total as Eric Hinske who has 120 fewer at-bats, and his .447 SLG is lower than Gaby Sanchez (.452) who has all of seven homers. All told, Fielder is on pace for 30 homers and 61 RBI. That’s the kind of production you were hoping for when you spent your second round pick on Fielder this season, isn’t it? I know it’s really close to the 46 homers and 141 RBI he had last season. Goodness.

If you spent all day watching True Blood’s season three opener over and over again, you might have missed the fact that the Athletics traded for Conor Jackson. If you did, or if you simply are curious, you can find my thoughts about the deal at Around the Horn – Bay Area Style.

Aaron Heilman has been named the closer for the D’backs ending the nightmare that has been the closing run of Chad Qualls. At the same time, manager A.J. Hinch indicated that he will use Heilman when he is needed most based on the game situation, so he could still pitch in the 7th or 8th innings. With as bad as that pen has been, they might see if they can find a way to get Heilman to pitch the 7th, 8th and 9th innings each night.

Am I the only one out there fellas that hates shaving everyday? Wait, I don’t have to do that because I have one of the coolest jobs in the world. Don’t spread this around either, but I also wear slippers to work on some days. How bad do you want to be me right now?

Never known as a power bat, Howie Kendrick has 18 RBI in his last 14 games for the Angels. Kendrick knocked in 61 runs last season, a career best, and is currently on pace for 101 this season. Of course, you know these things have a way of evening out which is why it’s hardly surprising to see that he is batting only .273 this season (career .297).

People always wonder what my thoughts are on players – at least that’s what I tell myself even if there are only three of you out there who continue to submit questions from various email addresses. For those of you that do care about my thoughts, or simply would like to see some analysis of pitchers Derek Lowe, Ricky Nolasco, James Shields, Matt Talbot and C.J. Wilson, the link to The Chopping Block is one that you’ll want to click on.

I’m sitting here staring out the window thinking about my plans for Wednesday night. Since my life is always private – when have I ever written or talked about it (wink, wink) – I’ll simply state I’m looking forward to it about as much as Matt Holliday is looking forward to hitting second in front of Albert Pujols, the best hitter in baseball, and that’s a lot.

Jamie Moyer and Kyle Kendrick have been flipped in the Phillies rotation meaning Moyer will pitch Wednesday and Kendrick Thursday. Since both will face the Yankees you shouldn’t have either active regardless of when they are on the bump.

Speaking of the Phillies, the latest report seems to suggest that Jimmy Rollins (calf) might still be a year, I mean a week, away from returning. I got confused there and thought we were talking about Brian Roberts.

By Ray Flowers

Which Pitchers Should You Avoid?

I was having a Twitter discussion today about the Angels’ Joe Saunders, and I said what I always say when asked about him – he just isn’t that good. The other guy pointed out that Saunders is fourth in wins the past two years, and while that’s true, it brought up the point that I always try to make when I talk to people about pitchers – wins are a horrid way to evaluate performance. It’s not 1967 when that’s all people cared about, it’s 2010 and hopefully we are all aware of how useless wins and loses are as a tool to evaluate a pitchers performance (consider Zack Greinke is 0-2 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.11 WHIP while Casey Janssen is 3-0 with a 6.97 ERA and 1.65 WHIP). So what should you look at when it comes to which pitchers you might want to add if they are available or hold on to if they are struggling? Here are some thoughts.

(1) Look for high strikeout pitchers. The floor should be 6.00 per nine, but you really would like to see that number at seven or higher (extreme groundball pitchers can obviously have success with lower rates).

(2) Look for pitchers who keep walks in check. You don’t really want to add anyone with a mark higher than 3.50 per nine innings if you can help it.

(3) Look at pitchers with a K/BB mark of at least 2.00. The higher the better, ideally you’d like to be above 2.50, but be very careful of taking a shot at a guy with a mark under 2.00.

(4) Select pitchers who keep the ball in the ball yard. A HR/9 mark of 1.00 is about big league average.

(5) Power pitchers, who keep the ball on the ground, are the best options. Obviously these are always the ones that go for big bucks on draft day, so at least focus on a hurlers groundball to fly ball ratio (you’ll want it to be at least 1.25).

With those parameters, how do a few of the hotter starting pitchers in baseball this season fair? Here you go.

Mike Pelfrey: 4-0, 0.69 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
6.58 K/9, 4.50 BB/9, 1.46 K/BB, 0.00 HR/9, 1.50 G/F
Grade: 3/5
Pelfrey is one of those guys who relies on a sinker and can confound analysis a bit, but at the same time he has never struck out more than 5.57 batters per nine in a season.

Doug Fister: 2-1, 1.67 ERA, 0.93 WHIP
4.33 K/9, 1.67 BB/9, 2.60 K/BB, 0.00 HR/9, 1.48G/F
Grade: 4/5
Fister will have success as long as his pinpoint control lasts. When it vanishes, he is in trouble given his poor K/9 rate and an impossible to hold on to HR/F mark.

Fausto Carmona: 3-0, 2.96 ERA, 1.13 WHIP
4.28 K/9, 3.95 BB/9, 1.08 K/BB, 0.33 HR/9, 1.38 G/F
Grade: 2/5
Carmona isn’t a strike out pitcher, he is a groundball inducing machine. Oddly, his G/F ratio is currently at a career worst level (2.49 career), but at least he has cut a full batter off his BB/9 mark from the past two seasons.

Mitch Talbot: 3-1, 2.05 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
2.39 K/9, 3.76 BB/9, 0.64 K/BB, 0.68 HR/9, 2.42 G/F
Grade: 2/5
Unless he keeps up that G/F rate, one that would land him in the top-10 in baseball this season, the lack of punchouts will sink him.

Dallas Braden: 3-1, 4.20 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
5.70 K/9, 2.10 BB/9, 2.71 K/BB, 1.20 HR/9, 1.05G/F
Grade: 2/5
Only his impeccable control keeps him from having a score of 0/5. If his BB/9 rate climbs back up to his career level of 2.90, he’ll be down to 1/5.

Livan Hernandez: 3-1, 0.87 ERA, 0.87 WHIP
2.90 K/9, 2.32 BB/9, 1.25 K/BB, 0.58 HR/9, 1.05G/F
Grade: 2/5
Livan is awful. I’m not even going to waste any time describing why – you can read that discussion in my Weekly Mailbag piece.

Jon Garland: 2-2, 2.57 ERA, 1.43 WHIP
6.43 K/9, 4.82 BB/9, 1.33 K/BB, 0.96 HR/9, 1.38G/F
Grade: 3/5
Considering that Garland has never posted a K/9 mark above 5.43 in his 10 previous seasons I feel pretty confident that number will regress in short order, and when it does only Petco Park will keep him from having a grade of 1/5 (it will keep the homers in check).

In the short-run you might be able to get away with a handful of these guys, but sooner or later the percentages will even out, and when they do my bet is that every pitcher on this list will suffer a substantial step back in their performance making them questionable plays in mixed leagues.

By Ray Flowers