Mailbag: May 31, 2011

photo © 2008 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are the answers to some of the questions that I have recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Should I give up on Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Morneau and trade them for Kyle Lohse and Justin Masterson?
– @westcoastredsox

We keep waiting for Ubaldo to turn things around, but the wait continues to be an excruciating process. Jimenez is 0-5 with a 5.86 ERA this season, and he’s currently walking 5.33 batters per nine innings, more than a batter worse than his already poor career mark. You simply cannot have success walking that many guys. We keep hearing that his body is healthy, that his issues stem from a mechanical issue, but a look at the radar gun doesn’t lie – his average fastball velocity is down more than three mph this season from where it was the last two years (96 down to 93 mph). Jimenez is still getting his strikeouts, his 7.99 mark per nine is a mere tenth below his career rate, but clearly something just isn’t right. The most distressing news though might be that this isn’t a recent issue, it goes back a long while. Over his last 24 starts Ubaldo has a 4.52 ERA, a 1.38 ERA, a ghastly 4-12 record, and a terrible 1.92 K/BB ratio. Those aren’t the numbers of an ace they are numbers that would normally find you residing on the waiver-wire.

The optimist will say that since May 9th Morneau has hit .289 and he’s finally ready to emerge from his concussion induced slumber. However, the realist in me just can’t accept that. Even though he’s hit nearly .300 the past three weeks, his OBP in that time is .318 and his SLG a sickly .386. Simply put, he isn’t getting on base, and when he does hit the ball the results make him look more like Erick Aybar than an all-star caliber player. Cut the guy all the slack you want, but Morneau is on pace to hit .242 with six homers, 54 RBI and 38 runs scored. I find it hard to suggest to people that he is even worthy of a roster spot in standard 12 team leagues.

Lohse has been a bone of contention for me. There is no disputing that he has been spectacular this year going 7-2 with a 2.13 ERA and a sparkling 0.92 WHIP. He’s also been amazingly consistent allowing more than two earned runs just once in his last 10 starts. Still, I have big time reservations. In more than a decade of work the guy owns a 4.66 ERA – more than double his current rate. I’m not talking about three months or two years, I’m talking more than 10 years of data (he’s never posted a season ERA better than 3.78, and it was his only year ever under 4.00). Lohse is also operating at a 6-year low in his K/9 rate (5.27), a fact that has only been offset by a career best 1.68 BB/9 mark (more than a batter below his 1.72 career rate). He’s also currently operating at one third of his career HR/9 mark of 1.10 at 0.34. Toss in three other salient factors. (1) His current BABIP is .230. He’s never had a mark better than .280 and owns a career rate of .302. (2) His current left on base percentage is 79.6 percent. His career rate is 70.1 percent. (3) He’s been under 120-innings pitched each of the last two years, and three times in the last five years he’s failed to reach 130-innings. I’m not saying it’s impossible that Lohse keeps this up, but it certainly seems like he is fighting against some extremely long odds.

Masterson has exceeded all expectations this season with a 3.07 ERA and 1.27 WHIP through 11 starts. Though his K/9 rate is a career low at 6.26, he’s also cut his walk rate by more than half a batter from his career rate down to 3.19 per nine. He also continues to be the master of the ground ball with a 56 percent rate leading to a GB/FB ratio of better than two to one (2.05). A slight regression across the board seems likely, but there is little reason to panic that he will suddenly turn into Luke Hochevar.

If you need pitching depth you can make the deal since I’m just not sold that Morneau will return to his previous glory though know that you aren’t picking up two aces but merely two solid arms.

 

I need some offense. Should I drop Ted Lilly or Ryan Dempster for Mike Morse?
– @Sport_Fanatic

Lilly hasn’t been as good as expected this year for the Dodgers. At the same time, he has gone at least six innings in eight of his last nine starts, is sporting a 1.29 WHIP and has a strong 3.42 K/BB ratio. There is growing concern about his velocity, it is down for the 4th straight year, which has likely been the primary culprit for the drastic drop in his strikeout rate that has seen the number fall to 5.83 per nine this year (he’s been at 6.84 or better in each of his 12 seasons). He has induced more grounders this season that at any point since 2005 to help mitigate the loss of punchouts, but his fantasy value currently sits on the precipice of irrelevance in a 12 team league until his punchouts come back. The question is, will they?

Dempster allowed 14 runs in two late April starts, but since then he has been very good. In May Dempster has posted a 3-1 record, a 3.08 ERA, 1.18 WHIP an a 7.82 K/9 mark, totals that line up very well with Ryan’s performance from 2008-10: 3.49 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8.20 K/9 mark. As expected, his early season home run woes seem to have stabilized as he has allowed just two homers in his last six outings. Add it all up an, despite a 6.00 ERA, Dempster’s xFIP says hie ERA should be 3.45, a mark that would better his ERA the past two years (it would also be a career best in the xFIP category).

Morse was everyone’s darling after a spring that saw him annihilate pitching to the tune of a .364-9-18 line in just 21 games. Morse then started off the season on fire. Wait, he actually started as if the fire was put out when the games started to count as he hit .224 with one homer in April. Flash forward a month and it has all changed. Morse finds himself in the daily lineup now that Adam LaRoche is out dealing with shoulder woes. Morse has responded to the playing time by hitting .386 with six homers in the month. The truth is that he has been even better of late with a .385 average and five of those homers over the past two weeks. Morse has hit .289 with 22 homers and 63 RBI over his last 394 at-bats, and there is little reason to think he won’t be able to reach those totals this season.

Given Lilly’s advancing age and declining fastball velocity, I’d drop the lefty to add Morse and his white hot bat.

Is Jake Peavy back to being an “ace”? I’m talking skill wise, not injury risk wise.
– @Dmitch4

First off, I don’t think you can remove the injury risk with Peavy. We’re talking about a pitcher who has failed to throw 110-innings the last two years, and one that is coming back from a shoulder procedure that no other pitcher in big league history ever has. Injuries have been, and will continue to be, a major issue for Peavy, there’s simply no way to remove that from the equation.

Second, despite the outwardly positive results (3.24 ERA, 0.88 WHIP), his overall effort simply doesn’t match his previous levels. The easiest way to see this is to simply check out his K/9 rate. The owner of an 8.88 career mark, Peavy was at 8.60 or better each year from 2004-09. Last season that mark dipped to 7.82, and so far this year it’s caved all the way to 5.76. The only reason no one has noticed is that Peavy has walked one guy in four starts. Obviously that isn’t going to continue. He’s also cut his career HR/9 mark by 2/3, and that isn’t going to continue, especially in a home park that is home run friendly.

So to sum it up, no, Peavy is not back to being an “ace.” He’s certainly worth taking a risk on because as we’ve seen when he’s healthy he can be exceedingly effective (hello Erik Bedard), but I just can’t trust him given his track record the past few years.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

MLB Mailbag: April 5, 2011

Photo by Keith Allison

 

Here are the answer to some of the quick hitters that I received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

What are your thoughts on an Aubrey Huff for Kendrys Morales trade?
– @jamesprussell

Everyone is still in love with Morales, and I’m just not sure I understand why that is. I know Morales has posted a 5×5 line of .284-28-94 per 162 games in his career, and that in his last full season that he hit .306-34-108 (2009). Still, the guy hasn’t played in a big league game since last May, and he still isn’t 100 percent with his leg. Don’t get me wrong, I think he has a solid chance to be effective once he returns to full health and shakes off the rust, but I have no faith that will occur at any point in April.

Huff gets no love despite finishing 2010 in 7th place in the NL MVP vote. Did anyone notice that he hit one more homer than Adam LaRoche (26 to 25), had three more RBI than Prince Fielder (86 to 83), scored 13 more runs than Ryan Howard (100 to 87) or that he posted a better OPS than Mark Teixeira (.891 to .846)? Or how about the fact that Huff has hit at least 20 homers in seven of the last nine years and had at least 85 RBI in six of the last eight years? Or how about the fact that Huff qualifies at first base and in the outfield?

Add that all up and I want Huff over the uncertainty of Morales.

Who do you prefer – Adam Jones or Jose Tabata?
– @oomyjosh

Adam Jones has produced nearly identical totals the past two years.

2009: .277-19-70-83-10
2010: .284-19-69-76-7

While that seems like a good thing, it really isn’t. The reason for that is that Jones posted nearly identical totals in 2010 despite 102 extra plate appearances, so his rate of production fell precipitously. Also in the negative column is that his walk rate was cut in half leading to the third BB/K mark below 0.25 over the last four years for Jones. It’s pretty darn difficult to have consistent, long term success when you have such poor control of the strike zone.

Tabata’s game is his wheels, and unlike other players with similar skill sets – I’m talking about you Carlos Gomez – Tabata gets it. Jose posted a 2.42 GB/FB ratio last season beating the ball into the turf and using his wheels to chug out the hits. Obviously that means he will fall well short of the power production of Jones, but the corollary is that Tabata should at least double, if not triple, the steal total of Jones. Another plus derived from his speed and ground ball tendencies is that his batting average could continue to push .300 as it did last year when he hit .299.

If you need speed Tabata would be a nice fit. However, I’m still going to say you go with Jones. His ability to be a five category contributor still exists, and if he just gains a modicum of patience at the dish he could conceivably be a top-25 performer at the outfield position. After all, he is just 27 years old.

Brian Duensing or Brandon Beachy?
– @saleemthedream

Duensing gets it done. Over 214.2 innings in his career the lefty has posted strong ratios (3.02 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) despite a less than scintillating 5.49 K/9 mark. Duensing is able to generate a lot of ground balls, 50 percent of batted balls in his career, which helps to offset his poor K-rate and less than big league average 1.98 K/BB mark. However, Duensing is much more Jake Westbrook than he is Francisco Liriano, and though he might have a long and successful big league career he simply doesn’t profile as a hurler who has much chance or replicating his ratios from last year (2.62 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) or one who is destined to be a fantasy ace.

People love rookies don’t they? After Beachy allowed just one run while racking up seven Ks in six innings in his first start, the love for Beachy is at an all time high. Still, let’s be fair to Beachy here. First, the kid has all of 174.2 innings above Single-A ball. Normally that wouldn’t be too much of a concern, but up until 2008 Beachy was primarily a hitter so it is an issue. That’s not a lot of experience on the hill. Second, while his stuff is good, it’s not at the elite level. He does possess three solid big league pitches (fastball, curve, change up), and he isn’t afraid to challenge hitters which should serve him well. Once the Braves rotation is back to full strength – i.e. Jair Jurrjens returns – Beachy will likely be looking over his shoulder ever time he struggles with Mike Minor looming.

I’d take a shot on Beachy who has the old upside tag going for him, though Duensing wouldn’t be a horrible fall back option.

What are your thoughts on Chris Narveson? Worthy of 10 team mixed consideration?
– @patrickmccurry

I’ve been touting Narveson as a great late round add for months now (Pitchers: Not as Bad as You Thought). Narveson isn’t overpowering, but that didn’t stop him from having a wonderful run to the finish last year posting strong totals over his last 14 starts – 5-3, 3.89 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 7.33 K/9 an a 2.75 K/BB mark. All of that means that Narveson profiles as a solid depth add in deeper mixed leagues or NL-only setups. However, he’s likely stretched as starter in a 10-team league, so in that setup you should be able to do a bit better.

Jhonny Venters or Jordan Walden? I already have Mariano Rivera and Chris Perez, so I’m looking for depth.
– @bambam12093

It looks like the Braves have settled on Craig Kimbrel in the 9th inning leaving Venters to handle 8th inning work which would seem to cap his fantasy upside in the short term. Still, Venters has been an absolutely dominating force during his brief big league career of 85.2 innings – 2.00 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 9.77 K/9 and an amazing 4.35 GB/FB ratio (the big league average is usually about 1.10). You’ve heard me say it before if you paid any attention to my work – the ideal combo with a pitcher is one who misses bats and one who generates tons of grounders. That’s Venters in a nutshell.

Walden has a slight advantage in the fantasy game in that the closer on his team – Fernando Rodney – is terrible. That would seem to move Walden much closer to working the ninth inning. The Angels do have other options to handle the 9th – don’t forget about Scott Downs who is nearing a return from a foot issue – but Walden’s early season work this year is drawing rave reviews (five of his seven outs have come via the strikeout and he owns a 14.26 K/9 mark over 17.2 big league innings). When your average fastball is 98 mph, people tend to notice.

At this point the better pitcher is likely Venters. However, with the uncertain 9th inning of the Angels,  the better short term fantasy pick up is Walden.

MLB Mailbag: March 31, 2011

I’m gonna switch it up a bit today in honor of the start of the 2011 season. Instead of going in depth on a couple of questions, I’m going to answer some quick hitters that I received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

12 team 5×5 mixed league. Kila Ka’aihue or Mark Trumbo?
– @truesportsfan

No team scares the bejesus out of me more than the Royals who never, and I mean never, seem to have a consistent plan. Take the case of Alex Gordon. He’s been demoted to the minors, asked to switch positions, and basically marginalized by the team. He goes to spring training this year, tears it up at the dish, and now seems likely to open the year in the third hole in the batting order. That makes total sense to me.

Ka’aihue should have been playing full-time in Kansas City last year. With Eric Hosmer coming quickly, the Royals need to determine if they truly have something in Kila since both guys play first base (and don’t forget about Billy Butler who really should be a DH). Kila has 25-30 homer pop, and the young man knows the strike zone (last year he had 88 walks and 69 Ks at Triple-A). He has the exact kind of patient/power approach that teams crave at first base. His future appears to be pretty bright after a strong spring and the Royals finally deciding to commit to him as a full-time player.

Trumbo was a monster at Triple-A last year (.299-36-122), and has looked capable of providing a ton of power this season if we look at his spring training numbers (.297-6-20 with a .978 OPS in 25 games). At the same time, I worry about where he will play once Kendrys Morales returns to action (potentially by mid to late April). The issue is this – the Angels have one to many players for 1B/OF/DH. For those five spots they have six guys: Trumbo, Morales, Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells and Peter Bourjos. The key to Trumbo’s playing time is likely Bourjos. If he hits enough to get on base and use his 40+ stolen base wheels he’ll be in the lineup everyday (I didn’t even mention his defense which some consider to be as good as any outfielder in baseball) leaving Trumbo without a consistent spot in the lineup.

If choosing between these two first basemen I’d take Kila.

People seem down on Ryan Franklin. Would you swap him for Joel Hanrahan or Drew Storen?
– @Cwhitney1

Far too many people seem reluctant to tab Hanrahan this year, and I just don’t get it. Just compare his numbers versus Franklin last season.

Hanrahan: 12.92 K/9, 3.85 K/BB, 1.05 GB/FB
Franklin: 5.82 K/9, 4.20 K/BB, 1.15 GB/FB

Everything being equal, I’ll take the guy who strikes out twice as many guys and doesn’t rely on smoke and mirrors to get outs.

Storen has looked completely lost at times this spring, and the plan in Washington right now is to go with some sort of committee approach which could be led by Sean Burnett. Do yourself a favor and grab Hanrahan. It might now work out, but he is the hurler I’d take without question (for more on why that is see How to Evaluate Relievers).

With Brad Lidge out for a couple months who’s the safer pick – Ryan Madson or Jose Contreras?
– @tjaden_buster

Madson is by far the “safer” selection (see Radiant Relievers). However, apparently no one in the Phillies organization realizes that fact as he has constantly taken a backseat to Brad Lidge for 9th inning work in recent years. With the news about the shoulder injury with Lidge, one that could keep him out of action well into June,  that means Madson will finally be given the chance to close, right? Actually, no. It appears almost certain that the Phillies will call on Jose Contreras to take over closing duties. Contreras was dominant last year with more than a K per inning and an impressive 3.56 K/BB mark, but he is also “reportedly” 39 years old, had never posted a K/BB mark above 2.44 (albeit as a starter), and has four career saves. Contreras appears likely to have more early season value, but Madson is still the “safer” play based on his skill set.

Should I keep Justin Morneau at $18 in a 6×5 mixed. $260 budget? OPS is our 6th batting category.
– @frankdepino

I don’t have much faith in Morneau. He might go out and hit 25 homers with 100 RBI, but it’s a huge risk as he is still working his way back from a concussion. People seem to be thinking he is going to pick right up from last years level of production (.345-18-56 in 81 games), but I’m just not sold. First, he has a career .286 average and has only three seasons in his career over .275 if you include last season. Second, though his OPS was tremendous last year at 1.055, he’s only posted a mark over .880 one time in a full season (.934 in 2006). Third, and most obvious, is his health – will he be able to play everyday? Personally I wouldn’t have spent that much on Morneau, there’s just too much risk for me, but if he plays 145 games he’ll surely produce $18 worth of production.

Ryan Raburn is a better pick up than Logan Morrison?
– @mattextreme

Raburn is a player everyone seems really hot on right now. Do to popular demand, I wrote a piece about him entitled 2011 Player Profile: Ryan Raburn. Here’s a quick recap. He’s a great power option if he qualifies at second base, but as an outfielder he is merely a depth option. Regardless of where he qualifies, Raburn is still the choice between these two guys in my mind. Morrison could easily have the more productive big league career, but in terms of his fantasy value he is somewhat limited. He won’t steal many bases, he’s only swiped 23 over the past five years, and though he hit 24 homers at Single-A in 2007, he’s managed a mere 29 homers over his last 1,264 at-bats. His stroke is much more doubles oriented at the moment that one that will lift balls into the seats. His plate discipline is a strong suit, he could walk as many times as he strikes out which should allow him to produce an effective batting average, but without power or speed Morrison’s 5×5 value is somewhat limited.

What do you think of Tim Stauffer?
– @johndasher

Stauffer is one of those pitchers who somehow has moved up 35 spots on some people’s draft boards despite never having thrown a pitch in a regular season game. Hell, some people probably didn’t even know who he was two months ago. I’m not one of those guys as I was trumpeting him back in January in 2011 Player Profile: Tim Stauffer. Bottom line, there’s a lot to like with this Padres’ hurler.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 211 and XM 147.