Around the Horn: June 30, 2010

(1) Jose Reyes injured in batting practice. Should be OK.

(2) Nate McLouth still having concussion related symptoms.

(3) Erik Bedard nearing a return to big leagues.

(4) Bengie Molina to be moved to the Rangers?

(5) Clayton Richard has 10 Ks vs. the Rockies.

(6) Mike Gonzalez might be out until All-Star break.

(7) B.J. Upton out with quad injury.

(8) Jair Jurrjens returns for the Braves.

By Ray Flowers

Buy Low, Sell High

Here is a list of eight guys who I think you should look to either add to, or trade from, your fantasy baseball roster on the eve of of the 2010 season. BUY LOW: Nate McLouth, Corey Hart, Mike Aviles, Lance Berkman. SELL HIGH: Fausto Carmona, Jayson Heyward, Troy Tulowitzki, Joe Mauer.

BUY LOW

(1) McLouth – Had a terrible spring, now dealing with hamstring injury.
(2) Hart – Went 20/20 in 2007-08. Slumping, and Brewers might trade him.
(3) Aviles – Has a .300 bat, and not much in his way right now.
(4) Berkman – Likely to miss two weeks with sore knee, but it’s not serious.

SELL HIGH

(1) Carmona – Great spring, but scary K/BB ratio past two years.
(2) Heyward – Anything short of 20/20 with 100 runs seems like it would be a disappointment.
(3) Tulowitzki – I’m concerned about his ability to repeat homers and steals.
(4) Mauer – For more on Mauer click on the link to MLB Predictions- Hitters.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Gods Draft

I’m asked to participate in a few “experts” leagues draft each year, and this year was no different. One of those leagues that I was asked to enter was a 12-team, mixed league auction that drafted the other night. Here are the participants in The Battle of the Fantasy Gods Draft.

Mike Kuchera – The Fantasy Man
Scott White – CBS Sports
Tim McLeod – RotoRob
Todd Farino – Fantasy Baseball Search
Jeff Boggis – Fantasy Sports Empires
Chris McDonnell – Fantasy Baseball
Tony Cincotta – Fantasy Pros 911
Paul Greco – Fantasy Pros 911
Grey Albright – Razzball
Ryan Hallam – Fighting Chance Fantasy
Scott Swanay – Fantasy Baseball Sherpa
Ray Flowers – FanBall

* Note. Each team had $260 dollars to spend to field a traditional lineup of 14 hitters (C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, 5 OF, UT) and nine pitchers. There was no reserve draft held, so each team was only comprised of the 23 men drafted, and therefore every player selected will obviously be in the active lineup.

I entered the draft playing on spending $180 on hitting and $80 on pitching. I also planned on being patient as people sometimes blow their wads early.

Here is how my team turned out.

Catcher: Kelly Shoppach ($3), Yadier Molina ($3)
I probably overpaid for Shoppach who I grabbed early, but he brings enough power to be useful. Molina is better than you think, and a safe play in batting average.

First Base: Miguel Cabrera ($35)
One of two big ticket items. Cabrera is about as steady as they come. He and Albert Pujols are the only two men in the game to have hit .290-25-100 in each of the past six seasons.

Second Base: Brian Roberts ($20)
Love this guy, and he was the last of the top tier second basemen to go. Roberts is the only player in baseball history to have 3-straight efforts of 100-runs, 30-steals and 40-doubles

Third Base: Michael Young ($9)
I think this was one of the best bargains of the draft. Doesn’t have the traditional third base pop, but he owns a .302 career average, has scored 80 runs in six of seven seasons, and knocked in 80 runs 5-straight years before falling to 68 last year as injury struck.

Shortstop: Stephen Drew ($7)
Drew is one of just four shortstops to have 10 homers, 65 RBI and 70 runs the past two seasons.

Middle/Corner Infield: Howie Kendrick ($8), Lance Berkman ($18)
Kendrick will hit .300 in his sleep. If he finally makes it out there for 500 at-bats, he could swipe 15 bags while going deep 15 times. Berkman had a down season last year, mostly because of injury. If you give him another 100 plate appearances to reach his normal level, he would have been right at 30 HR and 100 RBI.

Outfield: Jacoby Ellsbury ($29), Shane Victorino ($15), Alfonso Soriano ($10), Jason Kubel ($8), Johnny Damon ($5)
Ellsbury is a beast and has as good a chance as anyone to lead the league in steals. Victorino does everything well, and has been money the past three years. Soriano is a risk, no doubt, but with health 30 homers still seems doable. Kubel is a safe choice. He’ll likely regress a bit from last season’s numbers, but should still be solid. And I have no idea why no one loves Johnny Damon – not only in real life but also in the fantasy game.

Utility: Vlad Guerrero ($1)
Got my guy here. Drafted him really late when others were low on cash. With the Rangers I really think he could still hit .300 with 25 homers, totals he had reached 11-straight years before last season.

Pitcher: Joe Nathan ($16), Josh Beckett ($16), Brian Wilson ($12), James Shields ($10), Scott Baker ($9), Tim Hudson ($8), Chad Qualls ($8), Max Scherzer ($5), Matt Thornton ($3)
Beckett is an ace. In each of the past three seasons he has posted a K/9 rate of at least 8.43 while keeping his WHIP under 1.20. He is the only AL hurler who can make that claim. Shields, Baker and Hudson could all win 15 games with solid ratios, and I think they form a great base behind Beckett. As for Scherzer, he just might be the most dominating hurler of the bunch if he can ever learn to throw strikes. Nathan and Wilson should get me 75 saves. The Qualls selection caused some to snicker, but he could save 30 if healthy. After all, he led baseball with a 6.43 K/BB ratio last year. Thornton may not get saves, but he will provide ratio help, strikeout a ton of batters, and could move into the closers role if/when Bobby Jenks is traded.

Total: Hitting $171, Pitching $87 (I was left with $2).

I darn near hit my pre-draft goals in terms of spending, and put together a strong team. I was especially pleased with my pitching staff considering how long I waited to jump into that mix for starters. Still, are you wondering why I had $2 left over? Let me tell you a story.

I had targeted Vlad for my UT spot late, and I had that spot and one final OF spot open with $11 left. I tried to draft Corey Hart and Nate McLouth, but both times the bidding went to $10. I could have paid that amount, but then (a) I wouldn’t have been able to get Vlad (there is no way anyone could have known he would go for a dollar), and (b) I HATE having $1 players. It’s not like they can’t be productive players, in fact they are often the most productive given how cheaply they come on draft day, but the problem is you have no say in who it ends up being. Think about it. All someone needs is $2 and they can lock you out of the bidding on that player. I want to be able to dictate who is on my team, not be stuck with a player no one else thinks is worth a dollar bid.

In the end I feel good about the club. I will need Damon/Soriano/Guerrero to come through on offense, but given their illustrious track records, I feel pretty strongly that they will. The pitching staff is also a solid group who I would go to battle with in any mixed league.

So there it is. Wish me luck as I battle all year long with the “Gods” of fantasy baseball.

By Ray Flowers

Will it Ever End?

The Pirates are at it again, and that isn’t a good thing. For a proud franchise, one that has won nine pennants and five world championships in it’s illustrious history, there is no end in sight to the continual failures of the organization.

Next Year.

That’s the refrain the fans are fed year after year by the front office.

And year after year the refrain is repeated yet again.

For a group of fans that haven’t witnessed their team post a .500 record since Barry Bonds left the club after the 1992 season, their frustration must be at an all-time high. Why do I say that? Well beyond their unbelievable run of futility, the Pirates made a couple of moves in past day or so that has the team, once again, looking to the future. This time the players are voicing their displeasure at the moves.

“It’s not our job to understand the big plan, I guess,” first baseman Adam LaRoche said.

Here is what shortstop Jack Wilson had to say. “We know that they’re looking to the future, which doesn’t say much about 2009. We’re five games out, and we lost two or three of our everyday players…I’ve been here nine years. I’ve seen two or three of these trades every year and still haven’t had a winning season.”

Management, of course, has a different take.

“The upside that we’re gaining is something we can’t pass up,” manager John Russell said.

What moves are we talking about?

The Pirates sent OF Nyjer Morgan, RP Sean Burnett and jack of all trades Eric Hinske out of town in a couple of moves, and in return they netted the talented but enigmatic Lastings Milledge and the talented but unproductive Joel Hanrahan. It really can’t be argued that the club received the more talented players in these deals, but the questions are a plenty.

(1) Can a guy who was banished to the minors a year after hitting 14 home runs while stealing 24 bases be a difference maker? What if that guy was terribly ineffective at the dish this season (.167 in 24 at-bats) prior to his demotion? What if that guy continues to live his life as if no one else matters but himself? Milledge has 20/20 talent, but he has proven thus far to have a .20 cent head.

(2) Does the club really need a 95 mph throwing reliever who failed miserably as a closer this season for the Nationals (five saves, five blown saves)? You can’t teach 95, and Hanrahan does have 128 Ks in his last 117 innings so he certainly has talent, but he is far from a finished product with a career walk rate of 5.04 per nine innings

Beyond these two moves, which again seemed to net the club the more talented options, the question becomes one that the organization must answer to the fans – do they intend to make money or produce a winning squad? Remember, this is a team that let its best player, Jason Bay, go last year in a late season deal and then followed that move up by trading their new “best” player to the Braves when they moved Nate McLouth this season. What kind of message does a club send to it’s fan base when it trades away its number three and four hitters for a couple of prospects, a decidedly average starting pitcher (Charlie Morton), a pitcher no one has heard of in Bryan Morris, a failed reliever in Craig Hansen and a failed outfielder in Brandon Moss? Oh yeah, the club also got third baseman Andy LaRoche but I almost forgot him because he is hitting a whopping .278 with a massive three home runs and a staggeringly mediocre .750 OPS this season.

Look, I’m not a Pirates fan at all, but I can sympathize with the fans of a club that have to pay money to watch an ownership group that continues to say “wait til next year.” My question is, will they ever reach the point of “next year” or is this a conundrum in the same vein as the fact that we think we can never travel the speed of light as Albert Einstein posited many years ago (why is light speed travel not possible you ask? For those of you that care click on the link to Speed of Light and scroll down to “The Ultimate Speed of Light” for a brief description). For the Pirates sake I truly hope next year really is next year, though I still wonder if the Pirates have assembled enough talent to even return to the level of respectability and a .500 record. One can hope, and the eternal optimist in us all surely hasn’t given up on that.

By Ray Flowers

McLouth Traded to Braves

The Braves, desperate for a big stick to add to the outfield mix, have acquired Nate McLouth from the Pirates in exchange for three minor league prospects not named Tommy Hanson or Kris Medlen in a huge move that shook the baseball universe late on Wednesday night.

The Braves recently came to the realization that Jordan Schafer and his .204 average and 63 strikeouts in 167 at-bats wasn’t big league ready, so they sent him down to the minors recently which left the club one bat short in the outfield. The Braves, in desperate need of some pop considering that the team leaders in home runs have just five – Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar (and as you obviously surmised none of those guys is an outfielder), were looking to make a big move. As such, reports are that the Braves sent pitchers Charlie Morton and Jeff Locke as well as outfielder Gorkys Hernandez to the Pirates for their best player, McLouth, an outfielder with power, perfectly fitting the Braves’ need.

Nate McLouth hit .276 with 26 home runs and 94 RBI in 2008 as he also managed to scored 113 runs while swiping 23 bases. As such, he was one of just four 25/25 men in the bigs – the others being some fairly significant names: Hanley Ramirez, Matt Holliday, Grady Sizemore and Carlos Beltran. Though he has battled some injuries this season, McLouth is still working on a pace that would net him roughly 30 home runs, 115 RBI, 95 runs and 25 steals, a virtually repeat of his 2008 campaign. Sure his average is a bit down at .256, but that should reverse itself when his “luck” changes. By luck I mean when his BABIP, just .262, returns to his career level of .285, and his line drive rate, currently just 13.6%, also picks up and returns to his traditional level of 18.8%, that average of McLouth’s should rise a bit at least returning to the realm of respectable even if he doesn’t push the .290 or .300 mark.

As for the lineup change, McLouth figures to become one of the centerpieces of what could be a tremendous 3-4-5 in the heart of the Braves lineup with Chipper and Brian McCann. That obviously bodes well for his outlook. In addition, he moves from a park in Pittsburgh that is currently 19th according to Park Factors in runs scored to a park that is 15th. That isn’t a huge improvement, but it should help a bit. However, he is also going from the park that was 11th according to Park Indices in 2008 in the NL in home runs for left-handed batters to the park that ranked 13th. That’s pretty much a wash, though hitting in a better lineup with a team vying for a playoff spot should certainly offer a boost to a guy who has played for an outright loser his whole life.

As for the Pirates, this team, which hasn’t made the playoffs since 1992 when Barry Bonds roamed their outfield, has once again traded a franchise building block for future promise. At some point the fans in that wonderful city are just going to have to give up and cheer for the Steelers year round as it’s clear that the baseball team just isn’t wiling to do what is necessary to field a championship caliber team on the diamond. My heart goes out to you Pirates fans. Maybe it isn’t too late to cheer the Penguins on as they try to come back against the Red Wings to win the Stanley Cup.

By Ray Flowers