Player Profile: Dan Haren

Dan Haren is through as an effective big league hurler. That’s what you will hear from many who assess his failures in the 2012 season. I for one am not ready to throw Mr. Haren under the bus without analyzing his efforts in detail to see if he was indeed just as bad last season as some seem to think he was, or if there is still something that this dart throwing righty still has to offer in the fantasy game.

From 2005-2011 Dan Haren threw at least 215 innings each season, and his total of 1,581.1 innings was second in baseball (1,588.1 IP for CC Sabathia). He was the workhorses’ workhorse. Last season injuries sent him to the DL for the first time in his career as he threw 176.2 innings, a total most hurlers would love to achieve each year (at least he made 30 starts for the 8th straight season). Obviously his workload is a concern, sooner or later bodies break down, so it’s fair to wonder if the heavy workload that Haren has handled has led him to a point where he just cannot be counted on for huge inning totals.

Haren did win 12 games last season, a moderate total for an arm that has won at least 14 games six times. Once again, Haren and Sabathia are the only two pitchers in baseball who have won 12 games each of the last eight years. The righty and lefty duo of workloads also is the righty-lefty duo of wins.

Oh, but that ERA of Haren was terrible, considering his body of work, you say. Haren owns a 3.66 ERA for his career, and only once in the previous five years had he exceeded that mark (3.91 in 2010). So what happened with his 4.33 ERA last season? Was that high ERA “earned?” Let’s investigate.

Haren’s K/9 rate fell to 7.23, a six year low. It was only 0.02 off his 2011 mark, and just a bit below his 7.60 career mark so it’s not doom and gloom time but it is worth noting, the reduction in the rate I mean. As for his walk rate, Haren’s 1.94 BB/9 was only slightly above his 1.89 career rate. That’s an elite mark. Combine the two and you end up with a 3.74 K/BB ratio. Again, an elite mark. Yes it was a 5-year low for Haren, but the mark was still the 17th best in baseball. That would seem to indicate that Haren can still be a pretty fair hurler, even if his days of huge strikeout totals are gone.

Haren’s WHIP should never be a huge concern given that he just doesn’t put anyone on base via the walk (that fact should always help to shield him from posting poor WHIP marks). Even with last seasons down effort his 1.29 WHIP was still just below the big league average in 2012 of 1.31. That WHIP was also an eight year high by the way, and it was still better than the league average. The man owns a career mark of 1.18 and you have to be impressed by that.

I focus on homers allowed a lot, an in this respect Haren was beaten around the yard. His 1.43 mark, per nine innings, was the worst of his career. His career mark is 1.05, an over the previous five years that mark was never above 1.19. Part of the blame obviously lies at the feet of a career worst 12.8 HR/F ratio (career 10.5). Perhaps part of the blame is the loss of velocity (88.5 mph on his heater versus 90.8 for his career). That heat needs to come back. I’m not saying Haren can’t still be successful at 88.5 mph, he certainly can be, but it will obviously be more difficult without the heat for him to return to his previous elite levels. Truth be told though, the guy just knows how to pitch. I bet he could get batters out throwing 85 mph. So will the homer total regress in 2013? History says yes. Logic says yes. I say yes.

In the end, Haren isn’t likely to ever again be the hurler that struck out 223 batters with a 3.14 ERA in 2009. Still, a return to the NL with the Nationals can’t do anything but help (it also won’t hurt for him to likely be slotted as the 4th starter behind Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman). Plus, he’s on a one year, $13 million deal that gives the Nationals only a moderate amount of risk while providing Haren with one year to prove that he can still be an impressive hurler worthy of one last multi-year, big money deal. Haren figures to be a strong NL-only option, and I would bet that he improves on his ratio marks from last season making him a solid mixed league option as well.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Denard Span

The Nationals got their man, Denard Span, to play centerfield for them for the foreseeable future. The Nats picked up Span in exchange for 6’9” righty Alex Meyer who was taken 23rd overall in 2011. He had an ERA under three and more than a K per inning at a couple of stops at A-Ball last season, and he profiles as the type of pitcher who could one day be a top of the rotation force some day. For now though, it’s the Nats who get the playable big league piece in Span, and the one that has some price certainty locked in as well (he makes $4.75 million in ’13, $6.5 in ’14 and has a team option for $9 million for ’15). This move solidifies the Nationals outfield – Span will be flanked by Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth – while opening up the question of whether or not this move ends the run of Adam LaRoche in D.C. (LaRoche is a free agent whereas the club has Mike Morse under contract, and he can obviously take over at first base full-time with no issue). With that background, let’s get down to breaking down the prospects of Span.

Span has hit .284 during his big league career, though it should be noted that he hasn’t reached that mark the past three seasons (he hit .294 and .311 his first two years). Span slipped to .264 in his third season, and he matched that total again in 2011 as injuries limited him to 70 games. He rebounded last year to hit .283, to it’s pretty safe to assume he’s a .280+ hitter especially when you consider that his career line drive rate (20.4 percent) and BABIP (.320) suggest that is also a reasonable projections. Unfortunately that average comes with no power whatsoever. Span has hit a total of 23 homers in his career, has failed to post a SLG of .400 the past three years, and owns a 2.08 career GB/FB ratio. Given his skill set that is certainly playing to his talents, so while we down his fantasy value for it, that’s the way he will be a successful big league hitter.

Span knows to beat the ball into the ground and run really fast, and he does that well. Once he gets on base, he’s no afraid to use those wheels to steal a bag. A 2-time 20 steal man, he also has seasons of 18 and 17 thefts, and per 150 games he averages 23 steals. He may not be a burner, but you can expect him to push at least 20 thefts in his new home in Washington, especially if he returns to getting on base as he did early in his career. Why do I say that? The first two years that Span played his OBP was .390, an excellent number. The past three years that number has fallen to a barely better than league average .334. What if we split the difference and say that he is a .357 type of guy since that just so happens to be his career average? I’d be OK with that as the target number.

So we have a guy who produces a solid average, gets on base, steals a few bags, an isn’t shy about scoring runs. In two of the three seasons in which he has 500 at-bats he has scored at least 85 runs (71, 85 and 97), and per 150 games his average would lead to 92 runs scored. So let’s play this out. If Span hits .284 with 92 runs scored and 23 steals in 2013, could you live with five homers and 45 RBIs if he was your 5th outfielder, right? I think most people could.

Now I’ve mentioned 150 games played a couple of times, and that may be the key with Span. Only once has he appeared in 150 games, and over the last four years his average season has led to 124 games played, and that’s just not going to cut it. Span missed time last year due to a concussion, right collarbone issues, shoulder issues and hamstring soreness. Give his game, he needs to be in the lineup on a daily basis or his fantasy valued is further curtailed. With an average of just 99 games played the last two years, even if you are a Nationals fan, you should be able to stop yourself from buying too much into the hype with Span once we get closer to draft time.

Denard Span is a terrific baseball player. At the same time, he’s a minor player in mixed leagues because he doesn’t have an outstanding skill that equates to fantasy greatness. I’m not saying that he isn’t a player you can have on a championship team, if he’s your 5th outfielder you are in good shape, but realize that there just isn’t enough to hang your hat on with Span in terms of him being a beacon of greatness for a fantasy club.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Ross Detwiler

If you have a young son the first thing you need to make sure of, besides that he has all his fingers and toes, is that he does things left-handed. Why? You know why. In sports it seems like the keys to success are often controlled by port siders, and nowhere is that more apparent than in baseball where lefty hurlers seem to last forever despite less than ideal skills. Ross Detwiler may be 28 years old and in his athletic prime, but he also pitches like an old lefty with his dizzying array of sinkers inducing contact away from the fat part of the bat. Looked at as somewhat of a spare part type/swingman for the Nationals in 2012, Ross ended up making 27 starts (33 appearances) during which time he displayed a penchant for getting batters out. So let’s take a look at the lefty and see what’s what.

In six appearances out of the pen Ross pitched 13.1 innings with a 1.35 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, better numbers than he posted while working as a starter (3.58 ERA, 1.25 WHIP over 151 IP). Still, it’s not like his numbers as a starting hurler are anything to turn your nose up at – they’re pretty darn solid numbers actually. In fact, if you add it all together you end up with a 3.40 ERA, better than Mat Latos (3.48), an a 1.22 WHIP which was better than Ryan Vogelsong (1.23). Ross also wasn’t that easy to hit as his .240 BAA was 14th in the NL among pitchers who threw at least 162 innings. That ain’t bad at all. In addition, he generated a 50.8 percent ground ball rate that was 9th in the NL. Detwiler also walked 2.85 batters per nine innings, and while that isn’t a mark that is going to cause anyone to buy stock it’s a solid mark nonetheless (the NL average was 3.08 in 2012). All in all, that’s a pretty darn good season for a guy who was most certainly not drafted in mixed leagues.

So what’s the problem? Well, from a fantasy perspective there is one big time issue – Detwiler doesn’t strike anyone out. He had 105 Ks as a starting pitcher which was just 21 more strikeouts than teammate Tyler Clippard who threw 91.2 fewer innings as Detwiler posted a 5.75 K/9 mark which was nearly two full batters below the league average of 7.69. Moreover, despite the complete lack of excitement for his K-rate, it should be noted that it’s actually a four year best. Yeah, not good. The result was a 2.02 K/BB mark, again well below the league average of 2.50. Put simply, he doesn’t miss enough bats and therefore he’s really only going to be able to help anyone in three of the five fantasy pitching categories at best (ERA, WHIP, Wins).

Let’s hit on those ratios for a moment. Put bluntly, his ERA should have been a run higher if you ask xFIP (4.34). That’s not hard to understand given his less than league average K/9 and K/BB. He also had a league average left on base percentage of 70.8 percent which doesn’t excite, and the same can be said of his league average 9.0 percent HR/F ratio. Add to that party a somewhat advantageous .263 BABIP, .019 points below his career level and a career best, and the picture starts to come into focus. The cherry on top is that a guy who owns a 20.2 percent career line drive rate somehow held batters to a 16.4 percent mark in 2012. I’m not in the habit of calling anyone lucky, but let’s just say that Ross was rather fortunate in 2012.

A lefty who is capable of eating up innings out of the bullpen or taking the bump every five days as a starter, one who can induce a crap ton of grounders, is going to have a job in the big leagues for a long time. However, Detwiler is likely best served as a league only option in 2013. He doesn’t have the stuff to rack up even league average strikeout total, and with that being the case wins become a huge part of his fantasy outlook, and we know how random wins and loses can be. It’s also fair to posit a regression in the ratios categories, and if that happens he’s nothing other than a league average arm making him, well, pretty darn average in the fantasy game.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May15, 2012

(1) Matt Kemp to DL.

(2) Christian Friedrich dominating.

(3) Troy Tulowitzki hurt.

(4) Nationals, Yankees, Mets having 9th inning issues.

(5) Dan Haren – buy low candidate?

(6) Jeff Neimann out with a broken leg.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Edwin Jackson

Edwin Jackson thought he would strike it rich this offseason. He didn’t. Instead of the five year deal he was hoping for he decided to sign a 1-year deal, for about $10 million, with the Nationals. What did the team in the nations capitol get for all that money?

E. Jackson’s first name might as well be “Enigma.” On any given day he could twirl a no-hitter flashing elite stuff. On another day he might walk six batters and fail to escape the third inning. Some times he is as boring as boring gets giving up three runs and nine base runners in 5.1 innings. This is the main issue with Edwin Jackson – there’s simply no way to know how he will perform in any given outing. He doesn’t know. His team doesn’t know. His fantasy owners never know. Given that uncertainty, what should we make of Jackson in the fantasy game? Some facts with Jackson for you to consider.

Jackson has won at least 10 games each of the past four years while averaging 12 wins a year. His career record is still as boring as it gets though as he is 60-60.

Jackson has hit at least 183.1 innings each of the past four years twice going over 200-innings (he fell just short last year with 199.2 innings pitched). Give him his due here – he is pretty durable.

Jackson has a high of 181 strikeouts in a season, but he has only one other season with 150 punchouts (161 in 2009 as he fell short last year with 148 Ks). His career K/9 mark is 6.68 an only twice in his career, if you remove his 22 innings in his first season, has he posted a mark of 7.00.

Jackson owns a 4.46 ERA in his career. Over the last four years he has as many seasons with an ERA over 4.40 – two – as he does below that mark (3.62 in 2009 and 3.79 last year).

Jackson has a 1.48 WHIP for his career. Only twice in the last eight years has he posted a mark under 1.40 (1.26 in 2009 and 1.39 in 2010).

Prior to the All-Star break last season Jackson posted a 4.30 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. In the 2nd half his ERA improved substantially to 3.19, but his WHIP was still poor at 1.43.

His career BABIP is .311.

His career LOB percentage is 71.6 percent.

Though just 28 years old, Jackson has never been able to live up to the talent in his arm. Be it because of a lack of command, a lack of consistency, or simply an inability to focus, Jackson tantalizes every year but in the end the result is almost always disappointing (check out the rankings at Fealflicker where it’s obvious that there is still come convincing needed in the fantasy game). Jackson is a fine late round target in mixed leagues because there is a 15 win, 180 K, 3.50 ERA season in his arm. At the same time, you’re just as likely to get a replacement level season from E-Jax as you are to be excited about adding him to your squad. Think about it. Here are his career numbers again:

4.46 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 6.68 K/9, 1.82 K/BB, .311 BABIP, 71.6 LOB%

The only number in that group that is even league average is is the left on base mark, and it’s only a percentage point above the league average.

There may be no better example of an “average” performer on the hill than Jackson, even if his arm says that there is talent here to be an All-Star.

By Ray Flowers

Holiday Dealing

Everyone who knows me is aware of my fondness for the holiday season. My love affair for all things celebratory starts off with the dark and mysterious Halloween season. After a brief respite filled with turkey and gravy (my brother’s a chef so it’s always a wonderful meal for Thanksgiving), the season moves to snowmen, elves and Santa Claus. I know his is a baseball blog, an I promise to include some baseball in this post (Carlos Beltran and Gio Gonzalez will be dealt with), but I also wanted to point out a few interesting tidbits about the holiday season before getting to the hardball.

The actual date that Jesus was born is not known.

Christmas celebrations likely began in the late 3rd century.

German decedents apparently brought the Christmas tree to north America. At first they were just small trees that often rested on tables.

We can thank the Irish for bringing Christmas lights.

Santa Claus has a much richer history than you might think. Was he a real person? Click on the History Channel link for a video discussing the evolution of the bearded one.

ATHLETICS DEAL GONZALEZ

The A’s are blowing up their team yet again dealing their top two arms this offseason in Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill (I broke down Cahill in his PLAYER PROFILE), and reports suggest they still might move Andrew Bailey as well. Jeez, when will it end in Oakland as all they do is trade “young veterans” for younger players year after year.

Athletics: A.J. Cole, Tom Milone, Derek Norris, Brad Peacock
Nationals: Gio Gonzalez

The Nats get one of the best young lefties in baseball, a fact I mentioned in Wrapping Up The Winter Meetings. Gio has won 31 games, posted a 3.17 ERA and averaged 184 strikeouts a year the past two seasons. He leaves one of the better pitching yards in the American League for a slightly more offensive ballyard, but the move to the NL should negate that. Will Gio improve upon where he is right now? Maybe not (walks continue to be an issue). Even so, he remains a dominating left-handed starting pitcher, and there just aren’t that many to go around.

As for the Athletics, this could turn out to be one of the greatest deals the team has ever made. Of course, there is no assurance that prospects will ever develop into the stars scouts project them to be, but there is no disputing that the Athletics raided the cupboard of the Nationals. The Nats kept their top-2 prospects – Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon – but the A’s got the #2 and #3 youngsters in Peacock and Cole. Baseball America also listed Norris, a power hitting catcher with a big bat, as the 9th best player in the Nats organization. As for Milone, all he did was go 12-6 with a 3.22 ERA, 155 Ks and just 16 walks, sixteen, in 148.1 innings at Triple-A. For more on the foursome here’s the Nationals Minor League report from noted minor league expert John Sickels.

The Nationals get a huge lefty arm to pair with Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmerman, and they clearly win this deal, in a landslide, in the short term. If we check back in two years though, this deal could be seen as the building block of another Athletics’ dynasty. Time will tell.

CARDINALS SIGN BELTRAN

After losing the great Albert Pujols, the Cardinals did the best thing they could by signing the second best bat available on the free agent market (Prince Fielder was far too expensive for the team to consider). Carlos Beltran signed a two year deal for $26 million. It’s a strong salary for Beltran and the two year commitment shields the Cards if Beltran develops more physical issues. Beltran no longer runs, he has just seven steals the past two years, but he can still hit as evidenced by his .300-22-84-78 line with the Mets and Giants last year. However, he’s no spring chicken, he’ll be 35 in April, and he did appear in just 81 and 64 games in 2009-2010 because of continued issues with his lower half. If he can stay healthy the next two years it’s certainly possible that he could repeat the numbers he posted last season, but it was still wise for the Cards not to sign him for more than a couple of seasons.

Happy Holidays to all… and to all a good night.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Mike Morse

The Nationals’ Mike Morse entered last season never having appeared in 100 games in a big league season. There were questions about what position he would play and whether or not his bat would play on an everyday basis. Consider those questions answered after Morse hit .303 with 31 homers, 95 RBI and an OPS of .910 over 146 games played. In addition, Morse provided nice value given that he played 85 games at first base and 55 in left. Can he repeat his 2011 effort in 2012? That’s the question of the day.

Morse shows remarkable consistency last season after a slow start (he hit .224 in April with one home run). Morse hit .306 before the All-Star game, .299 thereafter. He batted .297 against lefties, .304 against righties. He hit .302 at home, .303 on the road. About the only time that he didn’t hit was during the day when he batted just .248 compared to .325 at night. Given that his line drive rate for the year was 19.5 percent, it doesn’t seem like his average was over the top good, though his BABIP of .344 was a bit high. Still, he’s posted a .346 BABIP in his big league career, so his mark from last season certainly cannot be discounted.

Morse socked those 31 bombs in just 522 at-bats, an impressive ratio. He only hit 36.5 percent of his balls into the sky, not exactly the type of big number you expect to see with a power hitter. However, he was able to still reach the 30 homer plateau because of his 21.2 percent HR/F rate. That’s certainly a big number, but he did post a 19.5 percent HR/F mark in 2010. It’s probable that he’ll give back some of that rate in 2012, but that doesn’t mean a massive regression is going to occur.

My biggest concern with Morse is probably his horrendous plate discipline. His 21.5 percent career strikeout rate isn’t awful for a guy who can put the ball in the seats, bit his 6.7 percent walk rate is underwhelming. As a result, his career BB/K ratio is 0.29, a mark he barely undershot last year at 0.31. Given that the big league average is about 0.50, it’s pretty clear that Morse isn’t the most discerning of hitters at the dish. That isn’t much of a concern when he’s locked in, but when the hits stop falling it would be nice to see that he had the patience to wait for his pitch. It doesn’t look like he has that skill.

Morse will be a strong addition to any club in 2012, especially because he will qualify at first base an in the outfield. Expecting him to fully replicated his .303 average and 31 homers is likely asking a bit much, but that doesn’t mean I’ll be looking for him to lose his starting job and regress to being a bench option in mixed leagues either. Draft Morse expecting him to pretty much replicated the production he posted in 2011 and you should be alright, just don’t expect continued growth.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: Holiday Dealings

Less than a week away from Christmas, plenty of teams are more than willing to open their gifts early. In what follows I’ll touch on a few of the players who have recently decided where they should send their holiday greetings from.

Rick Ankiel: The Nationals took a chance on Monday and signed Rick Ankiel to a 1-year deal worth $1.5 million (there are performance bonuses built in to the deal – reportedly up to $1.25 million). Ankiel will likely battle with Roger Bernadina for playing time in left field, though if Nyjer Morgan doesn’t turn his life around and perform better on the field, the defensively gifted Ankiel could also see time in center field. Ankiel hit .264 with 25 homers in 2008, but over the past two years he has batted a meager .232 with 17 homers. There are plenty of holes in his swing leading to a bushel of strikeouts (once every 3.69 at-bats), but the power is legit. Ankiel has hit a homer every 22.8 at-bats in his career which would equate to 18 homers over the course of 400 at-bats. He’s worth keeping a close eye on in NL-only leagues.

Zack Greinke: I always do what I can to mooch off Ted Carlson, he’s a smart guy and a wonderful writer, so I’m gonna point everyone to his full review of the Greinke to Brewers move in From Blue to Brew. My thoughts? Good for the Brewers. They can now team Greinke with Yovani Gallardo and Shaun Marcum for a fantastic top-3 that rivals the best in the NL. I know I’m gonna hear it from Phillies and Giants fans, so let’s do a side by side comparison of each teams top-3 hurlers based on their 2010 numbers.

Brewers: Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum
Phillies: Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt (sorry Cole Hamels)
Giants: Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez

Brewers: 37-29, 3.90 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.19 K/9 in 600.1 IP
Phillies: 46-32, 3.04 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 7.96 K/9 in 674.2 IP
Giants: 42-30, 3.22 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.77 K/9 in 629 IP

OK, maybe the Brewers threesome didn’t quite matchup, but admit it, it’s a lot closer than you though it would be other than that unsightly ERA, isn’t it?

Austin Kearns: Signed a 1-year deal with the Indians. I joked earlier at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account that Kearns seems to always fool someone into given him 300 at-bats. Looks like it will be the Indians chance this season. I’m not going to deny that Kearns has some talent, but com on now. He is always hurt and frequently doesn’t contribute much of anything above a replacement level type bat, a fact that can clearly be seen when you place his career slash line (.257/.353/.423) against that of the league during his career (.268/.339/.429).

Ricky Nolasco: The Marlins and Nolasco finally agreed on a deal that will buy out his final two years of arbitration and his first year of free agency. His haul comes to $26.5 million over three years. While that seems like a whole lot of cashola for a guy who has posted ERA’s of 5.06 and 4.51 the past two years, I think it’s a great signing for the Marlins. Some facts that cover the last three years (minimum 480 innings pitched).

(1) Nolasco has allowed 10.99 base runners per nine innings, the 16th best mark in baseball and ahead of guys like Matt Cain (11.07), Jon Danks (11.36), Justin Verlander (11.51) and Clayton Kershaw (11.57).

(2) Nolasco has the seventh best K/9 rate in the game at 8.56, better than Dan Haren (8.53), Josh Johnson (8.51), Zack Greinke (8.37) and Ubaldo Jimenez (8.23).

(3) Nolasco is fourth in baseball with a 4.44 K/BB mark. The major league average the past three years is just 2.07.

So how in the world does he have a 4.31 ERA the past three years? Great question, especially when his FIP mark has been 3.77, 3.35 and 3.86 the past three seasons signifying that he is indeed performing at a very high level. Bad luck maybe?

I’ll tell you this. If you asked me where would I draft a guy with a K/9 rate over 8.50 and a K/BB rate of nearly 4.50, I would tell you top-20 amongst starters for sure. In fact, I’d probably be able to make an argument for at least including that arm in my top-15, and that’s exactly why I think the Marlins did so well here – there just aren’t that many pitchers in baseball of baseball who can post a K/9 mark of 8.50 and a K/BB rate of better than 4.40 to one. In fact, over the last three years there have only been two men who have accomplished that feat – Mr. Nolasco and Mr. Haren.

Chan Ho Park: The 37 year old righty is likely done as a big league pitcher after signing a deal with the Orix Buffaloes of Japan. Park, who once allowed two grand slams to Fernando Tatis in one inning (April 23, 1999), would retire from the big leagues with 124 victories and 1,715 strikeouts in just under 2,000 innings (1993). Hopefully he will be content pitching closer to his homeland of Korea.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: Pitchers Dominate the News

Wednesday has been a day filled with plenty of news with most of it focused on the men who take the hill. There’s also a bit in here at the end about that rich guy who will patrol the outfield for the Nationals for those of you looking for a hitting fix.

Rich Harden: The flame throwing righty has reportedly agreed to a one year deal for $1.5 million to return to the club that he began his major league career with – the Athletics (there are another $1.5 million available in incentives). The deal will not become official for a couple of days yet as Harden still has to pass a physical – clearly not a given at this point. Early reports suggest that the A’s are looking at Harden as a bullpen option more than a challenger for a starting role, but you have to think they might be tempted to give him a shot at the 5th starters role. Regardless of where he pitches he is a wild card. Coming off a career worst 5.58 ERA and 7.34 K/9 marks – this guy owns career marks of 3.63 and 9.13 – Harden will be the quintessential late game flier. I’ll tell you this. Even with his average fastball sitting at just 90.5 mph last season, I wouldn’t want to face this guy coming out of the pen. Can you imagine batters trying to get their bats on that heater and his amazingly sinking change up? That sounds like a recipe for success if you ask me.

Cliff Lee Update: The final details of his contract are in. The Phillies will be paying the 32 year old lefty $120 million over five years. There is also a vesting option for $27.5 million (if he doesn’t reach the needed incentives in the deal, he would pickup a $12.5 million buyout meaning the deal comes to at least $135 million over the course of six years). A couple of obvious questions that need to be answered.

Does this signing make the Phillies better? Are you on crack? Of course it does. It not only does that, it makes them World Series favorites.

Does this deal give the Phillies the best starting rotation in baseball? Without a doubt it does.

Was this a smart deal for the team to enter into? This is a serious question that could play out very badly for the Phillies in the long run.

(1) If history is a guide, this was a terrible decision. This was the sixth $100+ million deal ever awarded to a pitcher. Here are the first five with a grade.

CC Sabathia (7 years, $161 million): So far, so good. An incomplete “A.”

Johan Santana (6 years, $135): He was great for one year and then solid in two. He had shoulder surgery and will likely miss half the year though in 201. An incomplete “B-” that grade could get much, much worse.

Barry Zito (7 years, $126 million): He’s stayed healthy and given the team innings. But all you need to know about his value is the fact that he was left off the playoff roster. An incomplete “D+”

Mike Hampton (8 years, $121 million): In a word – awful. “F.”

Kevin Brown (7 years, $105 million): Continually injured, he pitched well when healthy but for the duration of the deal he was merely average. “C-.”

(2) Does it make any sense to give a pitcher a deal that is this long when he is 32 years old? What this deal leads to is that at 35, 36 and 37 years of age Lee will be making $25 million a year. When he is 38 he will make either $12.5 or $27.5 million (depending on whether or not his option is picked up). If you think that sounds like a good idea I bet you are also the fella who would trade Chase Utley for Aaron Hill if he hit .220 in April.

The bottom line is that this signing gives the Phillies a magnificent chance to win the World Series in 2011, but they could pay a dear price in the long run for that short-term success.

Pitchers on the Market: Fausto Carmona, Zack Greinke and Carlos Zambrano

Greinke will be the most costly to acquire of this trio, and I touched on his situation a couple of days ago in Hot Stove: December 13, 2010.

Carmona is being viewed by some clubs as a cheaper fall back option if they aren’t able to get Greinke in a deal. Everyone knows that Carmona is nowhere near as impressive as Greinke, but he also won’t cost near as much to pick up. No matter where he ends up, Fausto just isn’t a very good fantasy option. While he throws an exploding sinker that can lead to wonderful outings, he is also a disaster when it comes to throwing strikes. I’ll give the guy some credit, he did knock his BB/9 mark down to a solid 3.08 last year, but he owns a 3.67 career rate and was over five per nine in 2008 and 2009. Carmona is also far from a strikeout option. In fact, despite throwing 210.1 innings last season, his total of 124 Ks was less than the totals of guys like Kevin Millwood (132) and Kyle Davies (126).

Zambrano is a very intriguing option. The most volcanic personality in the game, Big Z is as capable of throwing a no-hitter as he is likely to vent his childhood frustrations on an unsuspecting Gatorade cooler. The guy is just a flat out mess. At the same time, he rebounded from banishment in late June to allow two or fewer earned runs in each of his last 14 appearances during which time he posted a stellar 1.58 ERA. It likely wouldn’t take a hell of a lot to pry him from the Cubs given that he is due $17.85 million in 2011, $18 million in 2012 and $19.25 million on an option. Clearly if the Cubs want to move him to another club they are going to have to open their wallets big time and pay a large portion of that coin.

Jayson Werth: He was introduced officially at a press conference today, and manager Jim Riggleman mentioned that Werth might be asked to play center field against left-handed pitching. That means a couple of things. First, Nyjer Morgan and Roger Bernadina better not buy a house because they aren’t in the club’s daily plans. Second, Michael Morse could end up getting a lot more playing time than some people think in right field. Don’t overlook Morse. In 618 career at-bats he has hit .291 with 21 homers, 88 RBI and 73 runs scored. He could be a wonderful NL-only option this season.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: December 8, 2010

Lance Berkman – Early reports had him playing left field with Matt Holliday shifting to right field. Looks like that isn’t going to be happening. This is good news for Matt Holiday who has never played right field. It’s bad news for Berkman and the Cardinals’ pitching staff. Berkman has been a first basemen the past few years, hasn’t played in the outfield since 2007, and really hasn’t been a full-time outfielder since 2004. He better hit, a lot, because he’ll likely be a butcher in the field.

Jack Cust – Signed a 1-year deal for $2.5 million to join the Mariners. This is an example of a good and bad signing. First, the good. Cust joins a club that needs offense as the Mariners were last in the majors in runs, homers, OBP and OPS. It’s also a completely reasonable contract. The bad? They already have Milton Bradley set to DH and he is set to make $12 million dollars this year. How awful does that contract with Bradley look? About as awful as it did when it was signed – he was never going to be able to live up to that 3-year, $30 million deal that ends after this season.

DH Types – Manny Ramirez, Vlad Guerrero and Jim Thome are all in the market for an AL team looking for a designated hitter. All three still have value, and all three could legitimately hit 25 homers in 2011. At the same time all three are aging, and it’s pretty clear at this point that none of the three really belongs in the field at all. Teams in need of a bat would be advised to apply here though as these three old timers can still slug it (here are their OPS marks from 2010: Guerrero .841, Manny .870 and Thome at 1.039).

Matt Diaz – Signed a two year deal to join the Pirates (it is rumored to be for about $4.25 million). Diaz crushed lefties, always has, and his career splits are pretty pronounced.

vs. lefties: .335/.373/.533, one HR per 25.3 ABs
vs. nighties: .269/.327/.382, one HR per 54.9 ABs

Remember that if you plan on drafting him this season.

As a result of the deal, the Pirates are considering moving Ryan Doumit. They already have Chris Snyder to catch, and the original plan was for Doumit to play the outfield most of the time. Doumit is also scheduled to make $5.1 this year with club options for 2012 ($7.25 million) and 2013 ($8.25 million). It seems odd to me that the Pirates would want to get rid of a guy who could serve as their backup catcher and potential platoon mate with Diaz to form a nice combo in the outfield. I know the Pirates aren’t going to pay the guy over $15 million for 2012-13, but why not keep him for now?

Jeff Francoeur – Here is where major league teams could learn something from us “stat geeks” in the fantasy game. Simply put, Francoeur does not have an approach at the plate that will allow him to have long-term success at the dish, and all you have to do is to look at his career numbers. Apparently no one in Kansas City can operate a spreadsheet though, so the Royals went out and gave Francoeur a $2.5 million deal for 2011 with a $3 million mutual option for 2012. So let me get this straight. The Giants got Pat Burrell for one year and $1 million, and the Royals gave that amount of money to Frenchie? Burrell had a “down” 2010, but he still produced a .348 OBP and a .469 SLG. Francoeur has never posted an OBP of better than .338, and he has never posted a SLG of .450 in a season of more than 275 plate appearances. Simply put, Francoeur stinks. Of course, we are talking about the Royals who have brought in similar hitters the past few years in guys like Jose Guillen and Mike Jacobs. It’s no wonder this team never wins.

Doing it Right: The White Sox

The White Sox singed Adam Dunn to a 4-year, $56 million deal to serve as their designated hitter. That move looked even better when they were able to secure the services of Paul Konerko on a three year, $37.5 million deal (Konerko helped out the club as well by taking $30.5 million the next three years with $1 million dollars a year from 2014-2020 in deferred payments). So for $26 million in 2011 the White Sox should get themselves about 80 homers, 200 RBI and 180 runs. Would you rather get that or 15 wins, 220 innings and Cliff Lee for the same price? Seems like an obvious call to me. Furthermore, think about this:

The White Sox, if you add up the contracts of Dunn and Konerko, gave two deals that amount to 7-years and $93.5 million. Would you rather have Dunn AND Konerko at that rate or Jayson Werth and his 7-year, $126 million deal with the Nationals? Uh, yeah. Great move Nationals.

By Ray Flowers