(1) Ryan Dempster traded or not?
(2) Ichiro now in Big Apple after trade from Mariners.
(3) Anibal Sanchez/Omar Infante sent to Detroit for future ace Jacob Turner.
(4) Colby Lewis done for year – elbow surgery.
(5) Justin Smoak sent to Triple-A.
(6) Roy Halladay shaky.
(7) Jordan Zimmerman/Ryan Vogelsong = money in the bank.
By Ray Flowers
(1) Austin Jackson continues to miss time with abdominal issue (check out how good he has been over at Fleaflicker). Team calls up Quentin Berry.
(2) Mike Napoli – has he really been awful this season?
(3) Roy Oswalt close to signing with the Rangers in wake of injury to Neftali Feliz?
(4) Ryan Braun – guess what, he’s a fantasy superstar once again.
(5) Lance Berkman – will knee surgery knock him out longer than 6-8 weeks?
(6) J.J. Hardy dealing with shoulder soreness.
(7) Carlos Pena batting leadoff again.
(8) Red Sox moving parts around with Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis and Will Middlebrooks.
By Ray Flowers
Justin and Trevor discuss several different relief pitchers that are hoping to make their team’s rotations, and we will tell you who has the best chance.
Profiled are: Daniel Bard, Aroldis Chapman, Aaron Crow, Neftali Feliz and Chris Sale.
Yesterday in SWIP: 2012 – Starters, I gave a detailed description of exactly what SWIP is before I took a look at the starting pitcher pool from 2011. In PART II of my SWIP report, I’ll take a look at all the hurlers who tossed less than 160 innings including a discussion about the men that work the 8th and 9th innings.
* For an explanation of what SWIP is and how it works, click on the above link. Here is the “key” to help you to understand how to read the SWIP marks.
.90 and Up: Excellent season. Hall of Fame level.
.70 to .89: An all-star performance. Worthy of Cy Young consideration.
.50 to .69: Borderline all-star to decent starting pitcher. A guy you’d like to have on your staff.
.35 to .50: A guy who should be nothing more than the 3rd or 4th starter with his club.
.20 to .34: His major league days are likely numbered.
Below .20: Minor leaguer in training.
The league average in 2011 was 0.45.
Here are the hurlers who tossed between 90 and 160 innings in 2011.
0.87 – Brandon Beachy
Now maybe all of you out there who questioned why I have Beachy so high in my 2012 rankings, which you can find in the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide, will at least partially, understand my reasoning.
0.79 – Cory Luebke
A great place to pitch, combined with an impressive K-rate, equals a lot of promise.
0.74 – Tommy Hanson
Injures an a new motion are causing some worry, but if healthy he has the tools to be a top-20 starting pitcher.
0.68 – Scott Baker
Keep an eye on his elbow woes, but Baker owns the skills to be a top of the rotation fantasy arm if he can make 30 starts.
0.64 – Marco Estrada
The likely rotation fill in with the Brewers if Shawn Marcum (shoulder) is unable to go at the start of the year.
0.64 – Jake Peavy
He had nearly a four to one K/BB ratio last year, though he has looked awful in camp thus far.
0.60 – Jonathan Niese, Erik Bedard
One pitcher is always hurt, both are usually overlooked.
0.59 – Tom Gorzelanny
Whatever his role (RP or SP), Tom was an effective hurler last year with a career best 2.88 K/BB ratio.
0.56 – Felipe Paulino
Armed with a big arm, Paulino has quietly averaged 8.28 strikeouts per nine in 347.2 big league innings.
0.37 – Johnny Cueto
Totally changed him M.O. last year morphing from a K-arm, to a ground ball machine. SWIP isn’t a fan of that shift.
0.30 – Jair Jurrjens
I warn about him each year. Don’t buy that low ERA, it’s just not sustainable.
0.28 – Francisco Liriano
What an arm, but all those walks are just a killer.
Now on to the arms that worked at least 40 innings but no more than 90.
1.35 – Sergio Romo
I keep saying it, but here it is again. Romo has no shot at the Hall of Fame, but his numbers to this point of the game are as impressive as pretty much any hurler who has every lived.
1.30 – Kenley Jansen
The #1 target by most fantasy pundits from the middle reliever ranks.
1.20 – Jonathan Papelbon
All he does is save 30 games each year while striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings.
1.17- Koji Uehara
Often lost in the shuffle on draft day, this import runs smoother than a top of the line Honda Accord.
1.04 – Rafael Betancourt
Some doubt whether or not he can handle the 9th inning all season. That’s fine since he’s never done it for an entire year. However, don’t doubt the skills – they are elite.
0.99 – Sergio Santos
Some are worried about what he will do for an encore in his first year in Toronto. SWIP isn’t concerned.
0.98 – David Robertson
He’s shed the walking boot and appears to be well on his way to being ready for Opening Day after a scare with his foot. Could represent a nice buy low option on draft day.
0.97 – Vinnie Pestano
Looks like Chris Perez might be healthy enough for Opening Day after all, but that doesn’t mean it still wouldn’t be wise to roster Pestano.
0.96 – Rex Brothers
When you blow cheese like he does it doesn’t matter if you are pitching at a mile above seawater.
0.92 – Greg Holland
Never mentioned as an elite bullpen arm, but the guy had 74 Ks and just 19 walks in 60 innings last year.
0.43 – Javy Guerra
Will open the year as the Dodgers’ closer even though he is, literally, a third of the pitcher as Jansen according to SWIP.
0.42 – Jeff Samardzija
He has a great arm that led to 87 Ks in 88 innings last season, but the young fireballer simply has to reign in the free passes (he issued 50 last year).
0.39 – Neftali Feliz
Transitioning to the starting rotation, Feliz was dominant in the second half last year but his overall work places him as a below average SWIP arm.
0.32 – Matt Capps
How long can he hold on to the Twins 9th inning job? Not long if he repeats last years effort.
0.27 – Luke Gregerson
What happened to that once dominating arm out of the Padres’ pen?
For those of you who want to investigate further, here is the BBGuys-SWIP-2011-PDF file that lists all men who tossed at least 40-innings last season.
To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.
By Ray Flowers
The Rangers made a move that will help to shape their ballclub in 2012 on Monday. The club from Texas signed Joe Nathan to a 2-year deal worth $15 million (with a club option for a third year). What does this deal mean for Nathan, and more importantly, the young arm that has filled the role of closer for the Rangers the past couple of seasons?
Nathan was brought into Texas to close. The 37 year old reliever, coming back off Tommy John surgery last season, pitched just 44.2 innings with a 4.84 ERA in 2011 which might cause many to wonder what the Rangers were thinking here. What they realized was that Nathan looked just like his old self in the second half of the season – a very common occurrence for pitchers coming back from TJ surgery who often need some time to round back into shape. Nathan posted the following numbers over his last 24 outings last year: 8.61 K/9, 4.40 K/BB, 1.00 WHIP with a .207 batting average against. That was good enough for the Rangers to believe Nathan will be in 2012 what he was every year from 2004-09, and that was an elite relief pitcher (in those six seasons Nathan’s lowest save total was 36). Nathan was brought in to close for the Rangers in 2012, and he should be very successful in that role.
Now we have to deal with the aftermath of that signing, and that is what happens to Neftali Feliz, who racked up 72 saves the past two years? Teams realize that it’s much easier to find someone to pitch one inning out of the bullpen than it is to find a hurler who can dominate out of the rotation every five days. As such, the plan has always been for Feliz to start for the Rangers. Given the success that the Rangers had in converting C.J. Wilson and Alexi Ogando into starters the past two years, they clearly have a nice blueprint in place to help aid their hurlers in that transition. The move of Feliz into the rotation might also be an admission that the Rangers do not feel confident that they will be able to retain Wilson who is the top free agent arm on the market.
So what should you expect from Feliz in 2012? Good question. While the move to the rotation will likely reap major rewards at some point, it’s tough to see how he could become a dominant starter this coming season. There are a couple of reasons for that.
(1) A youngster at 23 years old, Feliz has thrown a total of 132.2 innings the past two years for the Rangers. Given that smallish workload, there are serious questions about how far the Rangers will let Feliz go in 2012. Ogando transitioned to the starting rotation and threw 169 innings in 2011 (Wilson was allowed to go 204 innings, but he was much older and had five years of big league experience under his belt). If Feliz was allowed to reach that rather modest total of 170 innings that would be 100 innings more than he has thrown in either of the last two seasons. That’s a huge increase. Given the importance of pitching in the game, and repeated instances of young hurlers having arm issues with major innings pitched increases, Feliz could be looking at a late season shut down, or periodic skipping of starts throughout the year to keep the innings under control.
(2) Feliz effortlessly tosses 96 mph cheese at hitters and that has led to an impressive 164 Ks in 162.2 innings in his career. However, his K-rate fell from 11.32 as a rookie down to 9.22 in 2010 and then 7.80 last season. If he could only strike out 7.80 batters per nine as a reliever last season, how many will he punch out when he is stretched out as a starter?
(3) After posting a BB/9 mark under 2.35 his first two years, Feliz saw that number explode in 2011 up to 4.33. If he can’t bring his walk rate back down, success will be elusive, especially if he repeats his awful 1.80 K/BB ratio from last season.
Let’s add everything up. Granted we’re talking only three years here, and with no season of even 70-innings it’s not a huge sample size, but in the following categories Feliz has seen his performance regress each of the past two years: ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, K/BB, BAA, BABIP, LOB%, xFIP. Is that a trend you wanted to see?
Nathan will be fine as the Rangers’ closer, and barring a physical setback, he should be good to go with his normal 35 saves. As for Feliz, his outlook is less clear. There is no disputing that he has an elite arm, and that one day he could easily vie for the Cy Young award. Still, given his almost across the board struggles last year, and the fact that he’s never thrown 70-innings in a big league season, I’m not going to be one of those folks out there paying for a hurler that I expect to pitch 200 innings with 180 strikeouts and an ERA in the mid 3′s.
By Ray Flowers
The Cardinals were, not once but twice, one out from elimination on Thursday night, but both times they rallied for one of the most dramatic endings to a game in World Series history. As a result of their 10-9 victory in the 11th inning over the Rangers, the scene is set for Game 7 tonight at 8:05 PM EDT. Here are some random thoughts about everything playoffs.
This was just the third time in the history of the World Series that a team came back from being one out from elimination. The 1986 Mets accomplished the feat. Some of you will remember that contest. I will venture to guess though that not a single person reading this piece will remember the other time it occurred. It was before the Vietnam War. It predated World War II. My goodness, it was even before World War I. The other time it happened was when the 1911 Giants pulled off the trick.
The Cardinals have won more Game 7′s in the World Series than any other team. They have gone 7-3 in their 10 chances.
Speaking of World Series titles, most know the Yankees lead the way with 27 championships since 1903. How many of you realized that the Cardinals are second on that list with 10? Speaking of championships, the Rangers are one of eight teams that have yet to taste World Series triumph (Rockies, Astros, Brewers, Padres, Mariners, Ray and Nationals). Amongst those clubs, none has been a team longer than the Rangers who are one year older than the Astros.
There were 393 pitches thrown in Game 7.
Neftali Feliz had not blown a save chance in 17 postseason appearances heading into Game 6.
David Freese is just killing it this postseason. Besides hitting .393 with a .448 OBP, he’s also sporting a Bondsian 1.235 OPS. Freese has gone deep five times and hit seven triples in just 17 games as he has plated 19 runners. Oh, and that walk-off homer from last night was just the fifth in a Game 6 or Game 7 in the history of the World Series (the last to pull off the trick was Joe Carter in 1993 for the Blue Jays). You would be hard pressed to find a more productive postseason in the history of the game.
Nelson Cruz has an injured groin, but he’s expected to play in Game 7. He’s tied Barry Bonds (2002) and Carlos Beltran (2004) for most homers in a single postseason with eight. Speaking of a wonderful run in the playoffs, Cruz has those eight homers and 16 RBI in 16 postseason games. He’s only batting .241, but he does have a 1.023 OPS for the Rangers.
Josh Hamilton is all beat up. A 30 homer threat every year, it took him 61 at-bats to hit his first postseason home run in Game 6. Hamilton has been a shell of his powerful self this postseason (.273/.292/.409).
To close… did you actually count out the Cardinals last night? You do remember that they came back from a 10.5 game deficit to overtake the Braves for the NL Wild Card, right?
By Ray Flowers
Here are the answers to some of the questions that I have recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account. Keep em coming ladies and gents.
1st place in saves, up 12 on next guy. Bad idea to drop Neftali Feliz and pick up an SP? I have Craig Kimbrel and Drew Storen as my active RPs.
– @silaPssoR
A 30 save closer gets about five saves a month (there are six months in a season). There are roughly five weeks left in the regular season. Let’s say that equates to seven saves. If you have two guys operating at that level, Kimbrel and Storen certainly have been elite save options, then you would record 14 saves the rest of the way from that duo even if you let Feliz go (for more on how amazing that Kimbrel has been this season see Best Duo Ever?). Since the fella in second place is 12 saves behind he’s going to have a long way to go to catch you since. I’d say that unless both Kimbrel and Storen crap out (not likely), and unless the guy in second place has four quality saves men on his team, that you would be safe making the move away from Feliz to add a quality starter for the stretch run. Just hope the fella in second doesn’t add Feliz.
Freddy Garcia or Mike Minor ROTW?
– @BobOfBowie
Garcia has had a rather remarkable season for a guy who was left for dead, that is when he isn’t playing with steak knives (he should return to pitch on Saturday for the Yankees). Despite a league average WHIP of 1.31, Garcia has managed to win 10 games while posting a solid 3.16 ERA. He was also on a role allowing three or fewer earned runs in nine of 10 outings before the setback. Still, his K/9 is poor (5.96), his K/BB league average (2.19) and his GB/FB ratio poor (0.90). He simply doesn’t grade out very well when you break down his skills.
Minor has pitched well since being recalled to the bigs. Over his last three outings he has gone 2-0 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. More impressively he has racked up 20 Ks and allowed just four walks in those 17.1 innings. Add in his last start in June and he’s struck out 29 against five walks while posting a 2.96 ERA the last four times he’s taken the hill. It’s taking him a while to get going, Brandon Beachy kind of stole his thunder in Atlanta (more on that in a minute), but Minor is starting to flash the skills that made him one of the top left-handed youngsters headed into the season.
Minor is the better arm, the “upside” play that everyone loves to target. However, he’s quite possibly going to lost his spot in the Braves’ rotation. With Jair Jurrjens already back, and Tommy Hanson (shoulder) about a 10 or so days away, Minor doesn’t appear likely to remain a starter. If you need the wins go with Garcia, but realize the better pitcher at this point is actually Minor.
Add Brandon Beachy and drop Ubaldo Jimenez?
– @TheGregFocker
Beachy continues to impress this season. Since July 20th he has made six starts and allowed more than two earned runs just one time. In fact, his ERA in that stretch is 2.48, his WHIP 1.07, his K/9 rate 9.7 and his K/BB ratio is 3.25. He’s clearly locked in right now.
As for Jimenez, yikes. Things weren’t great in Colorado (4.46 ERA, 1.37 WHIP), but they’ve gone horribly wrong with the Tribe (7.29 ERA, 1.81 WHIP). Over his last six outings he’s allowed fewer than four earned runs just one time. He’s also failed to last more than five innings five times. That’s right, he’s gone more than five innings just once since July 20th. He’s still striking guys out, he has 22 in his last 21 innings, but it’s too little to get excited about at this point.
As much as I want to believe in Ubaldo, to turn to him given his track record and the lack of it with Beachy, there’s simply no objective way that I can say choosing Ubaldo over Brandon right now makes any sense.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87.
I’m on a working vacation. As almost all of you know by now, I do a daily fantasy show for SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. While I do the show from the Bay Area in California, and I’m not kidding I literally do the show in my slippers at times, my co-hosts are in St. Louis while the SiriusXM studio that the show originates from is in Washington D.C. I was able to visit D.C. to meet the crew this week, and it was a great time. I’m now in St. Louis and the good times are still rolling. Some thoughts from the trip…
Went to the legendary Pappy’s Smokehouse for lunch today in St. Louis. Had quite the feast, and the staff was super friendly. Give yourself a lot of time if you go though, it took 45 minutes in line just to place our order.
It’s warm as hell back east. It’s 90 degrees in STL today an it feels cool compared to the temperatures I’ve been subjected to of late.
I toured the dome where the Rams play (thanks Amanda), and got a behind the scenes tour. Nice facility, but odd to think about a football game being played under a roof.
Speaking of the NFL, I’ve been asked multiple times about whether or not I will be ranking football players here at BBGuys. The answer to that question is – I think so. I won’t be doing much NFL writing here – though I will be writing NFL for Rotoinfo.com and FantasyAlarm.com. However, I’m thinking about doing something for the BBGuys crowd, and that is, releasing my own personal positional rankings. I’m thinking that I might do so next week, so look for information on how you can get your hands on the “Oracle’s” 2011 NFL rankings.
Some trade deadline thoughts…
Hunter Pence is as consolid a hitter as you will find. Any team would be wise to add him to the mix if the cost wasn’t prohibitive.
Ubaldo Jimenez should remain a Rockie. Don’t know why they would be looking to deal him when they control him for the next few years at a very reasonable price.
Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera are available for the right price according to reports. According to the Royals that ‘right price’ is a #3 starting pitcher. Good luck with that Royals.
The Rangers aren’t certain what is wrong with Neftali Feliz, so they are looking to add an arm to their bullpen. They appear to be a finalist in the Heath Bell sweepstakes, but the two sides are having a hard problem coming to an agreement. Late word suggests that the Rangers are now interested in the Athletics’ Andres Bailey. However, don’t you think they are gonna have to pay an awful lot to get an arm from their own division? Given that Bailey is under control through 2014 this is most likely a smokescreen being set out to get the Padres back to the dealing table.
By Ray Flowers
(1) Who on the Twins isn’t hurt? The names are astounding: Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Denard Span, Jason Kubel, Jim Thome, Kevin Slowey, Joe Nathan… Despite that, they just keep on winning.
(2) A’s demote Daric Barton, called up Chris Carter. Will also use Jemile Weeks at second with Mark Ellis serving as a utility player.
(3) Bullpen situations – Astros (Mark Melancon), Dodgers (Jonathan Broxton), Rangers (Nefatli Feliz).
(4) Ryan Vogelsong making history for the Giants.
By Ray Flowers
I’m headed to the FSTA Conference today in San Francisco to do the first experts football draft of the year. But you know me, I can’t let a day go without talking about baseball.
How in the world am I still getting questions from people about should they add Scott Baker to their staff? Have you people been listening to me at all? I’ve been saying go all in with Baker since January. Over, an over, an over again I keep saying it. Why is no one listening? So let me say it for the last time. YES, ADD BAKER. He has a 8.39 K/9 mark, 3.39 K/BB, 3.55 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. If you’re in a league where that doesn’t help you it must be an eight team mixed league.
Neftali Feliz has converted 3-straight save chances, and his ERA is 1.21 on the year. So everything is fine, right? Not so fast. I know everyone panicked and ran away from Joakim Soria when he lost his closing job a few weeks back (Hopefully you didn’t do that and listened to me when I said to hold on to the struggling arm who would like be re-inserted into the closers role quickly if he showed a turnaround. That’s exactly what happened after a trio of solid outings as a setup man). Why did I switch from talking about Feliz to Soria? Do me a favor and look at their numbers this season next to one another. I’ll bet dollar to doughnuts that you’ll be surprised that Soria has easily outpitched Feliz.
Feliz: 5.50 xFIP, 4.84 K/9, 5.64 BB/9, 0.62 GB/FB, 95.4 LOB%
Soria: 3.87 xFIP, 7.14 K/9, 3.41 BB/9, 1.19 GB/FB, 67.8 LOB%
The only reason that anyone thinks that Feliz is pitching better than Soria is because of an immense amount of luck for the Rangers’ closer. He’s pitched worse than Soria by nearly any measure, and has only been successful because of his insanely high left on base percentage amongst other things.
What’s wrong with Tim Lincecum? That’s a question I’ve gotten a couple of times the past few days. Over his last three outings Lincecum has looked awful, he’s allowed 22 hits and 16 runs over 15.1 innings, so I understand the concern from people. At the same time, his current WHIP is 1.19. His career mark is 1.18. His current batting average against is .233. His career mark is .225. His current walk rate is 3.02 per nine. His career mark is 3.23. His current BABIP is .294. His career mark is .296. His current xFIP is 3.03. His career mark is 3.15 and his mark last season was 3.09. Yes his K’s are down about three quarters of a batter per nine, but his 9.16 mark is still stellar. So what’s wrong with Lincecum? Nothing. His performance for the year is exactly where we should expect it to be it’s just been a roller coaster ride.
Hunter Pence is dealing with a minor back issue that has dogged him for a few days, but he should return to action on Monday. Pence has one of the quietest 22 game hitting streaks in recent memory to boost his average up to .318 on the year. His performance to date, if extended out over the season, would result in a 5×5 effort of .318-19-112-80-7, a pretty darn solid line and one that would place him amongst the top-15 outfielders in the fantasy game if he were to keep it up.
And finally, a Jose Bautista update. Over his last 11 games Bautista has hit .222 to drop his season long average from .360 to .338. He’s also homered in just one of his last 14 games. He’s still second in the AL in batting average and leads major league baseball in homers with one more than Curtis Granderson and Matt Kemp, but I just thought I would point it out to those of you who think Jose is a lock to be the AL MVP this year.
By Ray Flowers
The FSWA winner of the Best Baseball Series of 2011, BaseballGuys.com is the only source you will need for your fantasy baseball knowledge. OK, you might need other sources, but BaseballGuys.com should be on your daily list of must reads for the insights an analysis it provides on the world of baseball.
The co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87: M-F at 5-8 PM EDT), Ray has spent years squirreled away studying the inner workings of the fantasy game to the detriment of his personal life. Specializing in baseball, football and hockey, some consider him an expert in all three. Ray's work can also be found as feature writer for: Fantasy Alarm, Rotoinfo, Rotowire and Sports Illustrated.
You can contact Ray through e-mail at fantasyfandom@yahoo(dot)com or on Twitter.
