Draft Day Challenge, May 14

BaseballGuys.com has partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter.

@MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Brian McCann
2. Joe Mauer

McCann has hit the ground a running with a .333 average, three homers and 10 RBIs in his first 21 at-bats. He’s 0-for-2 against the hot Patrick Corbin, but McCann is going so well, including 7-for-17 of late (.412), that you should be starting him regardless.

You could obviously list Mauer’s name in every one of these writeups and be fine, but he’s scalding right now. Mauer has hit .447 the past two weeks with 13 runs scored. That’s enough to overlook his “mere” .316 mark against Mr. Peavy over 29 at-bats.

FIRST BASE
1. Edwin Encarnacion
2. Billy Butler

EE faces Barry Zito, in Toronto. That alone should make you interested. When you hear what he has done in nine plate appearances, your interest better be piqued: 4-for-7, two homers, eight RBIs. He also has two homers and six RBIs the past week.

Coming off a huge game (five hits, five RBIs), there is no reason to expect Butler to slow down against Jason Vargas considering he has six hits and three walks in 16 PAs against him. The end result is a .462 average, .563 OBP, two homers and five RBIs.

SECOND BASE
1. Robinson Cano
2. Neil Walker

Cano faces the all mighty King Felix Tuesday, but he’s had a ton of success in the matchup. Besides only striking out six times in 41 at-bats he’s also hit .366 with two homers and five RBIs.

Walker is back from the DL, and though he went 0-for-4 in his first game, perhaps facing Kyle Lohse will help. Walker has eight hits, to go along with five RBIs, in 20 at-bats (.400 average).

THIRD BASE
1. Ryan Zimmerman
2. Adrian Beltre

It’s borderline stupid to suggest playing anyone against Mr. Kershaw, but here goes. Zimmerman has four hits in nine at-bats against the lefty with nary a strikeout. He’s also starting to warm at the dish with a .318 mark and five RBIs the past week.

Going with two vets at the hot corner today. Beltre has hit .316 with five homers and 14 RBIs against Bartolo Colon over 57 at-bats. He owns him, or something like that. Beltre has also hist .346 with two homers and seven RBIs the past week.

SHORTSTOP
1. Ben Zobrist
2. Jayson Nix

Oh that John Lackey. Seems like many batters enjoys seeing him on the bump anymore. Zobrist is 8-for-20, a cool .400 average, with five walks against Lackey leading to a .538 OBP.

Jeter and Nunez are down and out, so Nix is the starter at short for the Yankees. He’s produced five hits in 10 at-bats against King Felix and he’s also rapped out eight hits, and six runs, over the past week of games.

OUTFIELD
1. Jose Tabata
2. Andre Ethier

Add Tabata to the list of guys that crush Mr. Lohse. Well crush might be too strong a term, but he does have 10 hits in 21 at-bats (.476), and that’s impressive. Tabata also has seven hits in his last 14 at-bats this season.

Ethier is hitting only .254 on the year, but things are looking up. He’s hit .318 the past week, and now he gets to face Dan Haren who he has only hit .426 against in 47 at-bats (two homer,s seven RBIs as well).

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Chris Tillman
2. Jeremy Guthrie
3. Julio Teheran
4. Scott Kazmir

Tillman is 3-0 with a 2.03 ERA over his last four starts and he takes on the Padres Tuesday. That’s usually a good thing, facing the Padres, right?

The last three weeks Guthrie is 3-0 with a 0.42 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He faces an Angels team that has scored just 156 runs this season, the same total as the Astros.

The Braves haven’t lost a single one of Teheran’s starts this season, even if he is only 2-0 on the season. In his last three starts he has allowed a total of six runs which is impressive even if he has only 11 Ks and has allowed 25 hits (19.1 innings). He faces the D’backs.

Kazmir is 2-1 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, not to mention 21 Ks, over his last 17 innings. I picked him up this week in two leagues. Must mean he’s bound to fall on his face. He faces a Phillies team that has a .619 OPS over their last eight games.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Baseball – FAAB Report, Wk.4

Oh those injuries. They can be a killer in fantasy baseball. Unfortunately, they are a fact of life. Injuries will happen. You have to able to adapt and work around that. Truthfully, these 2-3 week fill-in’s you add to your club will go a long way to determining whether or not you are in contention in September. Choose wisely young padawan.

TOUT WARS (15 team mixed): Just so you know that you aren’t the only one dealing with injuries, here are the players on my club that are currently on the disabled list: Zack Greinke, Joel Hanrahan, Cameron Maybin, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez. And there are only 27 players rostered in this league, so that’s a pretty good chunk of them. So this week I had to make a couple of moves. I added Eric Sogard ($1) to take over for Ruben Tejada since I cannot afford to have a guy who is day-to-day given all my other injuries. I also added Jeremy Guthrie on the hill. I’m not expecting him to remain the hurler has been so far, but I will also note that since he joined the Royals last season, he’s been more effective than he should be (7-3, 3/32 ERA, 1.15 WHIP in 116.2 IP). I also added two start hurler Mike Leake (at home versus the Cubs and on the road versus the Nationals).

Notable bids: Edward Mujica ($19), Wade Davis ($7), Travis Snider ($6) and Jorge De La Rosa ($5).

LABR (12 team, AL-only): Here we go again. With the injuries I mean. Sergio Santos, Jeff Niemann and Michael Pineda are on the DL. I was able to make a move this week to add an arm to cover for Santos. I was the lucky, or unlucky depending how you look at it, winner of Aaron Harang for ($7). I know, I know, but sometimes you have to go for it in leagues that are this deep. With Joe Blanton and Ubaldo Jimenez really struggling, I had to take a shot on another starting arm.

Notable bids: Luis Jimenez ($13), Corey Kluber ($5), Brandon Laird ($4), Oswaldo Arcia ($4) and Allen Webster ($3 though he has since been demoted)

FSTA (13 team mixed): Back up the injury train cause Ray is ready to be the conductor! The following players are on the DL: Hanley Ramirez, Joel Hanrahan, Shaun Marcum, Sean Marshall and Sergio Santos (Kevin Youkilis and Asdrubal Cabrera are both injured too). I added Eric Sogard, noticing a theme here?, for $19. I really would have rather had Eric Young Jr. but I needed the help up the middle more than in the outfield (my bid on EYJ was $18, the same as the winning bid). I also came up short on Mujica (my bid was $77) so I ended up with David Hernandez ($17), and elite setup man who would likely excel if something were to happen to J.J. Putz. By the way, I’m the Putz owner in this league, so I gave myself a bit of a shelter. As I always say, be proactive with middle relievers. This week Hernandez costs less than $20. If Putz were to blow his arm out, he’d likely go for $200 or more next week.

Notable bids: Edward Mujica ($267), Tony Cingrani ($185), Didi Gregorius ($121), Anthony Rendon ($71), Garrett Richards ($56) and Andrew Cashner ($44).

SIRIUSXM EXPERTS (12 team mixed): Hanley Ramirez was going to be my ace at shortstop this season. For now, that plan is on hold. Luckily I have Martin Prado to fill in (he’s shortstop eligible in this league… even though he didn’t play 20 games there last season). With Andrelton Simmons struggling, I felt like I needed to do something up the middle. Luckily, Neil Walker was released, a huge mistake if you ask me. I likely overspent to get him, $37 of my $100, but I think he’s a top-10 second base option and with my weakness up the middle, I went for it.

Notable bids: Andrew Bailey ($24), Edward Mujica ($16), Carlos Marmol ($7), John Buck ($5) and Ross Detwiler ($5).

SIRIUSXM LISTENER LG (11 team mixed): This is the only league with an open waiver-wire, and I need it with the following fellas on the DL: Michael Saunders, Ryan Zimmerman, Jose Reyes and Joel Hanrahan. Oh, I also had Cameron Maybin hit the DL this past week, and with all the injuries I have, and the chance that his wrist issue keeps him out longer than 15 days, I felt like I had to make a move so I moved on from Maybin for Will Venable (I would like to hold Maybin in an ideal world, but I just have too many injuries right now to do that). I was also quick to the waiver-wire last Monday as I added Edward Mujica to bolster my bullpen.

K-BAD (12 team mixed): Chris Getz is hitting under .250 and hadn’t stolen a base. Time to drop him (he was added cause Hanley Ramirez was DL’d then his MI replacement, Gordon Beckham, was also placed on the DL). I added Eric Sogard for $12 (out of $1,000. I bid $14 on Crawford, but as you can see another was more sold on the hot start than I was. I still think this hot start is just a hot start. Don’t love the skills). I wasn’t able to get Mujica (my bid was $77), but I rostered Joaquin Benoit instead ($42). Didn’t have room for Drew Smyly, but I really wish I did since it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him inserted into that Tigers’ rotation soon since Rick Porcello continues to stink.

Notable bids: Anthony Rendon ($188), Tony Cingrani ($160), Edward Mujica ($133), Peter Bourjos ($100), Brandon Crawford ($50).

FANBALL (13 team mixed): In this $100 FAAB league, I failed to get Andrew Bailey ($17), but I was able to emerge with Edward Mujica ($16). Might turn out for the best cause I’m not certain Bailey is going to keep the closing job once Joel Hanrahan is healthy. I wasn’t getting much out of Kelly Johnson up the middle so I took the plunge on rookie/potential phenom Anthony Rendon ($4). Rendon doesn’t have much power to speak of, but he’s got an excellent approach and cap rap liners out with the best of them. It remains to be seen how long he will be in the daily lineup. He’s got two weeks, with Ryan Zimmerman on the DL, to prove he belongs.

Notable bids: Andrew Bailey ($25), Brandon Crawford ($9), Chris Johnson ($9), Lucas Duda ($5).

To see how others are evaluating players don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

By Ray Flowers

Draft Day Challenge, April 18

Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

@MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Mike Napoli
2. John Buck

Napoli has never faced Zach McAllister before. However, Napoli is second in baseball with 14 RBIs against right-handed pitchers, two less than Miguel Cabrera.

Oh hell, just start Buck. The snow seems to have finally stopped in Colorado and the guys is batting .326 on the year. But be warned… he’s hitting .214 the past week and he’s hit only .238 against John Garland in his career (and yes, I know he’s not eligible for daily games since his game time is early in the day).

FIRST BASE
1. Nick Swisher
2. Paul Konerko

Swisher is trending right now and he’s got a strong matchup to keep it going. Swisher has hit .326 with an OPS over 1.000 in 46 at-bats against Jon Lester. Two homers and eight RBIs are a nice sweeter.

Konerko has four hits, including two homers, in 10 at-bats against R.A. Dickey. He’s also batting .360 with two homers, six RBIs and six runs scored the past seven days.

SECOND BASE
1. Neil Walker
2. Kelly Johnson

Slow start be damned, Walker has kicked things up a notch the past week with 10 hits in 22 at-bats leading to a .455 average and six RBIs.

Johnson, like Walker, is cranking things up. He’s only had 13 at-bats, but he’s gone for four hits, a .308 average, and he’s gone deep twice for the Rays in that time.

THIRD BASE
1. Ty Wigginton
2. Chris Johnson

Wigginton has been terrible this season when called upon with two hits in 13 at-bats. He may not even play tonight. Still, he likes facing Cole Hamels whom he has five hits against in nine at-bats.

Johnson faces lefty Jeff Locke. He’s 0-for-1 against the youngster, but he is hitting .438 with a homer in 16 at-bats against lefties this season and he’s also hitting .409 overall.

SHORTSTOP
1. Cliff Pennington
2. Jimmy Rollins

Pennington is 4-for-8 with a homer and four RBIs against Phil Hughes. Cliff is also seeing regular work with the D’backs, even if the effort thus far hasn’t been overly exciting (zero HR/SB in 51 at-bats). Hey, there aren’t that many games tonight.

Rollins has one hit in 18 at-bats the past week. He’s only hitting .232 on the season. So why am I noting him here? He’s actually had success against Adam Wainwright with a .350 average in 20 at-bats.

OUTFIELD
1. Gerardo Parra
2. Garrett Jones

Parra faces right Phil Hughes, a hurler he has never seen before, but Parra has had a lot of success against righties this year. In 40 such at-bats Parra is batting .375 with a homer, a triple and five doubles.

Jones doesn’t have a single at-bat against a lefty this year, but that’s fine since he has hit .325 against righties. He faces Julio Teheran of the Braves. He’s right-handed.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Chris Sale
2. Patrick Corbin
3. Mike Gonzalez
4. Tony Cingrani

The Blue Jays have managed a mere .250 average and just one RBI in 12 at-batsm agianst the lefty. Sale hasn’t had as much success in his career on the road, but he’s still been good away from Chicago (3.43 ERA, 1.22 WHIP over 147 IP).

Corbin is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA on the young season. He’s gone six innings in each outing, and today he faces a Yankees club that is dealing with all kinds of injuries, so the matchup isn’t anywhere near as bad as it might sound like when you first hear it.

Gonzalez has tossed two quality starts in his two outings this season, though eight strikeouts and seven walks ain’t exactly great. The Rays are the lowest scoring team in the AL right now, so the matchup isn’t unappealing.

For more of my thoughts on Cingrani, see my Rounding the Bases column. Oh, he’s facing the pathetic Marlins as well.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: August9, 2012

I’m Ray Flowers, co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account in my never ending attempt to replace myself by explaining to everyone how I evaluate players thereby making myself obsolete.

Drop disappointing Eric Hosmer for a legit power threat of Manny Machado in 16 team non-keeper points league?
– @linas2000

Manny Machado is one of the top-10 prospects in baseball. Still, it’s very questionable for the Orioles to be calling up the 20 year old at this point. First, though a shortstop, the club is going to play him at third base where he has played all of two games. Second, he’s just 20 years old and owns a mere .263/.343/.428 slash line in 218 minor league games. Third, let’s just put it – is he ready for this? One GM doesn’t think so according to Jon Heyman. “I still think it’s too early to recall him. Just because he’s better than Wilson Betemit doesn’t mean it’s the right move for the kid.” To me, this move smacks of desperation by the Orioles.

Hosmer is hitting .227 with one home run in his last 26 games, and he’s just not getting it done despite the fact that we all expect him to one day. Given that your league is 16 teams you could take a shot at catching lighting in a bottle with Machado if you need to do something significant to move up in the standings. I don’t think Machado’s going to have a Josh Rutledge like impact but at this point Hosmer  isn’t getting it done.

Zack Greinke has become a matchup pitcher this year. Am I wrong?
– @keithsweat96

All depends how you look at it. On the year Greinke has a solid set of ratios (3.74 ERA, 1.26 WHIP), has nearly a K per inning (137 in 142 frames) and his 3.81 K/BB ratio is impressive. In three starts with the Angels he has a 5.68 ERA, 1.63 WHIP and a terrible 1.88 K/BB ratio. He’s also posted a poor 5.23 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over his last five starts with a 2.60 K/BB ratio. The answer depends on the strength of your pitching staff and your place in the pitching categories. If you wanted to be careful with starting Greinke I could totally understand that, but if you wanted to continue to roll with him that might also make sense as well. Manage those categories.

12 team 5x5roto. Amazing I’m asking you this, but is Jon Lester dropable at this point?
– @Only1dREWSTAR

It’s a fair question to ask given his up and down work, though I’m still inclined to say that it would be a mistake to let him go (the folks over at Fleaflicker seem to agree). I certainly wouldn’t feel compelled to start him right now though. In five of his last six outings he’s allowed at least four earned runs, and over his last five starts his ERA is 8.79 and his WHIP 1.57. He’s also gone 0-4 and only won five games all year. The real answer to your question is who you would be picking up off waivers to take his roster spot. There might be a hidden gem or two on your waiver-wire wire even in a 12 team league, so it’s worth investigating.

Aaron Hill or Neil Walker – which one has more value ROTW? Looking more for Hits/Runs/RBI.
– @atlbravesfan_84

Let’s compare season long work.

A. Hill: .293-13-47-53-8 with a .823 OPS and 119 hits
Walker: .292-13-65-57-7 with a .811 OPS and 115 hits.

Well that didn’t help at all since they are both identical performers this year. How about we look at who is trending and take a look at the last month.

A. Hill: .269-2-7-14-1 with a .700 OPS and 25 hits
Walker: .294-7-24-15-0 with a .944 OPS and 25 hits

Again, a virtual toss up.

I’d slant things slightly toward Walker given that he is a slightly performer better right now and has been a run driving force for two months now.

Would you drop Phil Hughes for Matt Harvey?
– @ThatsAndyG

I feel like a broken record here. I don’t know how many times I can tell people that I’m not a fan of Hughes. Sure he has his moments, but at the end of the day he’s just… average. The 11 wins and 3.61 K/BB ratio are strong totals, but the 4.10 ERA and 1.28 WHIP are league average stuff. He’s also a total disaster with homers given that his GB/FB ratio is brutal at 0.67 this year and 0.75 for his career. The guy is always going to be homer prone in that ball yard in New York. Plus, remember this. Over his last 49 outings covering 281.2 innings Hughes is 23-20 with a 4.76 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 and 2.46 K/BB. All of that is league average stuff.

My only real concern with Harvey is that the Mets plan on shutting him down around 165-170 innings. He’s at 126.1 innings right now.

Who will have more saves ROTS: Casilla, Balfour, Myers, Janssen?
– @BodyPillow_Pimp

I really just wanted to answer a question from “Body Pillow Pimp.” Great user name. As for the question, honestly, how am I supposed to know the answer to this one? I have no idea who will produce the most saves. We need to get past the point where we are “guessing” about who will have more saves. You shouldn’t be rostering players on a guess, you should be rostering them on skill and opportunity.

Santiago Casilla: Has a blister, a 5.40 ERA, a loss and two blown saves in his last 11 outings. Jeremy Affeldt and Sergio Romo are more likely to get the save chances ROTW.

Grant Balfour: 0.90 ERA/WHIP last 10 outings. Meanwhile, Ryan Cook has four blown saves an a 8.10 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over his last 10 outings. The A’s still keep giving Cook the ball in the 9th though.

Brett Myers: He’s appeared in nine games with the White Sox and doesn’t have a single save chance to his name.

Casey Jannsen: He’s 14/15 this year in save chances, has a 2.11 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 44 Ks in 42.2 innings.

Should be pretty obvious who the best choice is (hint: it’s the last guy I mentioned).

Oh, an in case you were wondering what my answer is for the self asked question from my Twitter account last year – Batman or Jason Bourne ? – I’m going against the grain and saying Jason Bourne. Batman is amazing, especially in the Christopher Nolan/Christian Bale incarnation, but Batman’s success is with the gadgets money buys. Bourne improvises and gets by more on his wits than anything fancy pants he pulls out of a utility belt.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 7-10 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. One, it’s about time to cut loose and have some fun. Two, I’ll be giving some plays for Friday and Saturday that would seem to be in prime position to succeed.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what they offer, and shame on you for not knowing, click on the link to BBGuys Partners with DailyJoust. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Carlos Lee vs. John Lannan: Lee is hitting, get this, .538 over his last seven games with 14 hits in 26 at-bats. You simply cannot be hotter than that. He also faces Lannan Friday night who he has hit .474 against in 19 at-bats. Seems like a match made in heaven.

A.J. Pierzynski vs. Zack Greinke: The old reliable matchup. AJP has hit .408 with two homers in 49 at-bats against the new Angel. While you’ll want to start the backstop you’ll want to avoid his slugging teammate Paul Konerko who has only nine hits in 62 at-bats (.145) against Greinke.

All Yankees vs. Kevin Millwood: I’m only sorta kidding. Look at these numbers though.

Nick Swisher .357 (42 ABs)
Mark Teixeira .379 (injured)
Raul Ibanez .373 (51 ABs)
Ichiro Suzuki .395 (81 ABs)
Robinson Cano .394 (33 ABs)
Andruw Jones .421 (19 ABs)

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Matt Harrison vs. Royals: (1) Harrison has a 12-6 record and 3.19 ERA this year. (2) He’s pitched slightly better on the road (3.01 ERA, 1.17 WHIP). (3) He’s facing off against Jeremy Guthrie. Seems like a solid start to me even though he’s allowed nine runs in his last two outings.

Tim Hudson vs. Astros: Hudson has long had success against the Astros with a 1.44 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 4-0 record against the club. He’s also won his last three starts to improve to 10-4, and he’s just not beating himself as he’s walked just nine batters in his last seven starts.

Matt Moore vs. Orioles: Moore has allowed four runs over his last three starts, and the last two times he’s taken the hill he’s struck out 13 batters while walking just two. He’s also gone 5-straight starts without allowing a long ball and he’s pitched a bit better at home this year as well (3.61 ERA, 129 WHIP in 12 starts) than on the road.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Robinson Cano vs. Felix Hernandez: Dan the difficult looking matchup. Cano has hit King Felix to the tune of a .378 average and 1.007 OPS over 37 at-bats as he has gone deep twice.

Aramis Ramirez vs. Adam Wainwright: In 47 at-bats Aramis has clearly gotten the better of the Cards’ righty with 19 hits, including seven doubles and two homers, leading to a .404 average and 1.142 OPS. Overall Aramis also has 10 hits in his last 22 at-bats (.455).

Neil Walker vs. Mike Leake:  Over the last month Walker is hitting .351 with six homers, 18 RBIs and 15 runs scored as the second most valuable fantasy performer at second base (only Brandon Phillips has been better). Walker has also killed it vs. Leake hitting .368 with a homer and eight RBIs in 19 at-bats.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Wei-Yin Chen vs. Rays: Chen made five starts in July and four of them were “quality” as he racked up 41 Ks, with a 3.15 K/BB ratio and 3.44 ERA, over 36.2 innings. He faces a Rays club that has produced just eight hits off him in two starts (.200/.319/.300 slash line against him).

Doug Fister vs. the Indians: Fister had a nice month of July that included a 3.60 ERA and 37 Ks in 40 innings on the bump. He also won four games for the Tigers and has allowed a total of six runs in his last four starts while picking up an impressive total of 31 Ks.

Hiroki Kuroda vs. Mariners: You’re pretty safe pitching anyone against the Mariners, but when it’s Kuroda, it makes even more sense. Not only has he held current Mariner’s batters to a .231 average an a .645 OPS, he’s also rolling having allowed just three runs over his last three starts and he’s also gone at least seven innings in each of his last four starts.

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By Ray Flowers 

Mailbag: April 26, 2012

I’m Ray Flowers, co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

I have Neil Walker at 2b & Jemile Weeks at MI. Omar Infante still available on the waiver-wire. Do I grab Omar over NW or JW?
– @DadofReilly

Walker is hitting only .224 with no homers and five RBI through 17 games, a dreadful start for a guy who came into the season with a fair amount of hype. To be fair we’re only talking about 58 at-bats, and Walker does have 12 hits in his last 10 games, but disappointing is certainly a word I would use to describe a guy coming off a 83 RBI, 76 run campaign who has started like this. Weeks has been just as bad hitting a mere .200 with a pathetic .253 OBP, but he does have two homers, three steals and nine runs scored, so he hasn’t been an unmitigated disaster (Week’s brother, Rickie, has been pretty unimpressive since the start of last season. For more see Fact of the Day, April 25thBaseballGuys.com). At the same time, I always felt that Jemile was getting too much love in fantasy circles heading into the 2012 season.

Infante continues to act like he thinks he is Robinson Cano. Through a mere 13 games Infante is hitting .313 with five home runs. Infante is a .275 career hitter, and he hit .305 in 2009 and .321 in 2010, so it’s possible he could bat .300 this season, though I still consider it unlikely. As for the power, there is no, none, nada, chance that the power display will continue. This is not a Jose Bautista breakout we are witnessing. Infante has one season, and he started playing in the majors in 2002, with more than nine homers (he hit 16 back in 2004). Per 162 games in his career, a career that has lasted long enough for him to accrue over 3,200 big league at-bats, Infante has averaged 10 homers. He’s already halfway to that average — in 13 games thanks to a four times increase in his HR/F rate (it’s currently at 20.8 percent versus a career mark of 5.2 percent).

Given how hot he has been, there are very few fantasy baseball leagues out there in which Infante should be on waivers considering he has been the third most productive second base eligible player per contest according to Fleaflicker. That said, he’s got no shot at ll of sustaining his unbelievable start. If you wanted to move on from either of your current players I would suggest dropping Walker because his skill set more closely matches that of Infante (Weeks has game changing speed). I’m not saying I’d rather have Infante for the course of the season over Walker, but there is no denying that right now Infante is the more appealing option.

Drop Bud Norris for Chad Billingsley or Chris Capuano? Or keep the faith?
– @edcolby

Norris is being bailed on by a lot of people who see a 5.84 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. You should look beyond those numbers to see the following. (1) His 8.03 K/9 rate is impressive. (2) His 2.92 BB/9 mark is a batter below his career level. (3) His 0.97 GB/FB ratio is just off his career rate of 1.02. Still, his HR/FB ratio is way up leading to 1.82 homers per nine innings. That number will not continue (just look at his mark the past two seasons – 1.05 and 1.16). The truth of the matter is that Norris has pitched way better than his fantasy ratios would suggest.

Billingsley came out on fire, and it appears that he is well on his way to putting behind him that down 2011 campaign (11-11, 4.21 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 152 Ks). The biggest key for Billingsley in the early going, the main reason he has a 3.04 ERA and 0.93 WHIP through four starts, is the fact that he just isn’t beating himself. A guy who walks about 3.9 batters per nine innings for his career, that mark currently sits at 1.90. Guys just don’t drop two batters off their BB/9 mark after being at another level for five years, but it’s still encouraging to see him throwing more strikes. At the same time, Billingsley’s current 7.23 K/9 mark would actually be a six year low, so maybe he’s changed his approach a wee bit. It’s also a pretty good bet that Chad won’t be able to keep batters to a .195 average (.249 for his career) once the innings start to pile up.

Capuano is slowly starting to get some love in the fantasy game. A huge injury risk since the virtually the day he was drafted, here are Capuano’s innings pitched totals the past five years: 150, zero, zero, 66 and 186. Yeah, he’s one risky cat to own. Capuano does have solid K potential (7.83 per nine this year, 8.13 last season), pitches in a solid pitchers park in Los Angeles (he also gets to make starts in pitcher havens such as San Diego and San Francisco), and he’s a cheap option that is likely still on many a waiver-wire even with his solid start (2-0, 3.52 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 20 Ks in 23 IP).

I’m taking Billingsley knowing full well that he has no chance of keeping up his current pace. So why suggest adding the Dodgers’ righty then? Consistency (something Capuano certainly can’t offer). Billingsley takes the ball every five days and gives his team a chance to win more times than not. Norris has a “bigger” arm, but he’s also inconsistent and pitches for a team that might struggle to provide him with enough run support for him to reach double-digits in victories.

Should I drop Kelly Johnson to sign Jose Altuve?
– @theYankeeHajny

Johnson hit .222 last year and has started out this year with a .231 average through 17 games so I get the concern. At the same time, Johnson has hit 20 homers with 75 runs scored and 13 steals each of the past two years. Those aren’t fantastic numbers but they are still numbers that only one second sacker have reached each of the past two years. A guy like that, even with a potential batting average deficiency, shouldn’t be given up on lightly (it should be pointed out that Johnson does have a .259 career average and that he hit .284 as recently as 2010).

Altuve has been hot with the twig hitting .377 through 69 at-bats. However, let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. First, Altuve isn’t going to hit the ball into the seats (three homers in 290 career at-bats), which also will likely lead to a poor RBI total for an every week starter in most mixed leagues. Second, though speedy, he’s only had one effort of 30 steals and he has 11 in 75 big league games. He could easily steal 20 bases this year, he already has four, but his not going to light up the steals category. Third, and I hate to break it to you all, but he’s not a great hitter. Having completely skipped Triple-A, Altuve has only 290 at-bats above Double-A, and that concerns me a bit given that he isn’t exactly the most patient hitter in the world, and that could drain his batting average a bit when he gets into a funk. It’s also a pretty fair guess that his current .431 BABIP will likely regress by a .100 or so points, and that will cause his batting average to dip accordingly.

Give me Johnson over the slap it and run Altuve, but make sure you have other hitters on your club who can cover the poor average you are likely to receive from Johnson.

I trade Adrian Gonzalez and Nelson Cruz for Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez. Do it?
– @bearnvegas

Everyone, let’s stop the panic with Pujols. Some facts. In every season of his career he’s finished the year hitting at least .299 with 34 homers, 99 RBI and 99 runs scored. Right now he’s hitting .222-0-4-6. Assuming he reaches his “worst” totals, numbers he has reached in each of the past 11 seasons, that means from this point forward that he is going to blast 34 homer with 94 RBI and 93 runs scored. And those numbers would merely equal his career worsts. As for the batting average, assuming 574 at-bats (his seasonal average the first nine years), Pujols would hit .311 the rest of the season. Despite the slow start, I think all of those targets are fair which leads me to the position that I would still prefer Pujols to AGone (.303-2-13-9).

Cruz can be a beast, but he’s always seemingly hurt (the last three seasons he has averaged just 120 games a season which dings his value substantially). He’s also hit under .265 in two of his last three seasons. There are also questions about just how much running he will be allowed to do given his continued issues with his wheels (he’s stolen 10 bases in his last 143 games after stealing 37 bases in 2009-10). Hanley is hitting just .238, and coming off shoulder surgery, but he qualifies at shortstop and second base, and that’s huge. He’s also gone deep four times while stealing four bases, a pace that would lead to a 35/35 season if he were to maintain it (obviously that’s doubtful).

Get Pujols and HanRam. AGone and Cruz should not be dealt to anyone lightly, but this is a pretty impressive return.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday. 

Mailbag: June 28, 2011

photo © 2008 William Holtkamp | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are the answers to some of the questions that I have recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Carlos Pena or Michael Bourn ROTW?
– @F_Naud

There is a fundamental misunderstanding in how to evaluate players in many instances as people have a hard time placing a value on a player who does nothing but steal bases (i.e. Bourn). Here’s some knowledge that should help.

(1) From 2008 to 2010 there were 14,533 home runs and 8,728 steals (for every homer hit there were 0.6 stolen bags the past three years). Obviously steals are the scarcer commodity and therefore, the more valuable in a straight up comparison.

(2) Not only are steals more difficult to come by, they are more tightly grouped in a smaller number of players. From 2008-2010 there were 256 individual seasons of 20 homers. In that same time frame there were 118 individual seasons of 20 steals. That’s better than a 2-to-1 margin in favor of the 20 homer hitter.

Given these facts, steals are more valuable than homers in the fantasy game in terms of their inherent value in a vacuum because of their scarcity. Of course there are five offensive categories, so you can’t just compare A to B and get the picture in 1080p in HD, but you get the point.

Bourn is an elite base stealer. He’s swiped at least 52 bases while scoring at least 84 runs the past two years, totals that make him a boon to fantasy clubs even if he averaged a mere three homers and 37 RBI over the two years. Let’s take a look at how Bourn ranked, in terms of his fantasy value, at two of the biggest providers in fantasy baseball the past two years.

Bourn 2009: # 26 overall at CBS, #76 overall at Yahoo
Bourn 2010: #68 overall at CBS, #126 overall at Yahoo

Let’s compare that to Pena, a slugging, sloth like, average killer.

Pena 2009: # 147 overall at CBS, #99 overall at Yahoo
Pena 2010: #370 overall at CBS, # 287overall at Yahoo

Both sites use player raters that evaluate players a bit differently, but it should be clear that they are both saying that an elite speed option like Bourn is immanently more valuable than a slugging first baseman like Pena who kills your batting average.

You can find homers all over the place at first base, so a guy like Pena has no business being in a discussion for a 1-for-1 deal for an elite base stealer like Bourn.

I traded Hanley Ramirez for Michael Morse & Martin Prado. Have J.J. Hardy to replace. Good trade? 12 team h2h.
– @brianrkiel

Hanley is on fire, finally, with eight hits in five games. Oddly, some seem to have forgotten that he is an elite talent because of injury and poor production this year. He has no shot at matching the numbers that were expected from him, the numbers that made him a top-5 selection in all drafts this year, but that doesn’t mean that he won’t be an elite level performer in the second half of the season.

Morse has been an absolute beast this year hitting .303 with 15 homers and 46 RBI in just 231 at-bats. Since he qualifies at first and outfield he is even more valuable that if he was just rooted at one position. He’s also had success wherever he has played his games with a .303/.345/.545 line at home and .303/.361/.576 slash line on the road. Prado is an established .300 hitter who qualifies at multiple positions on the diamond. His staph infection also appears to be under control, and he’s just about ready to start ramping up his physical work. He should be back before the All-Star break.

As for your replacement at shortstop, Hardy has been great this year – when on the field. He’s clearly brittle, injuries are part of his game, so you should be wary of depending too heavily on him. A solid power bat, there’s little change he will be able to remain at his current pace that would net 30 homers in a full season, and since he’s never hit higher than .283 and owns a career .265 average you also should be concerned about his ability to hit .304 all year long.

If Prado was healthy and hitting .300, I don’t think anyone would accept just Hanley for that duo with Ramirez underperforming so badly. At this point of the year you have to be pragmatic though. I’d accept the deal under the proviso that it’s a risk since the health of Prado is uncertain at the moment.

I give up Matt Joyce and Neil Walker for Brandon Phillips. Thoughts?
– @Lukdabeast

Joyce has predictably fallen on hard times hitting .176 with one homer in June, but let’s not overlook the fact that he’s on pace to hit .300 with 20 homers and 80 RBI (he’s at .313-10-38 through 71 games). Everyone would have taken that at the draft table. Walker has been a disappointment to some as he’s hitting .252 with a .711 OPS a year after hitting .296 with a .811 OPS, but it’s hard to be too down a second sacker who is on pace to go deep 15 times with 100 RBI and 80 runs scored isn’t it?

Phillips has gone bonkers of late hitting .500 over his last 32 at-bats to bring his season long mark up  to .299. Yes his power is down with only six homers on the year, but he is still on pace to better 85 RBI and 100 runs scored. It is odd though that a guy who has stolen 23 or more bags in four of five years isn’t even on pace for double-digit thefts.

There is no disputing that Phillips is the elite level performer of these three. It’s tough to give up all the counting stats that you lose if you deal Joyce and Walker, but I’d give the thumbs up for this deal provided you had an option you could easily slide into the vacant outfield spot.

Who closes for the Phillies with Ryan Madson on DL?
– @WestheUmpire

First it was Brad Lidge, then Jose Contreras, then Ryan Madson as the arm the Phillies were going to count on in the 9th inning.

Lidge is on the DL with an elbow issue, and after a cortisone shot last week he’s finally back at it and rearing to go. The club hopes he will be able to return before the All-Star break. Contreras just went on the DL, again, this time for a strained forearm that will likely keep him out for about 4-6 weeks. Madson was placed on the DL today with a bruised hand that is causing him some numbness. At this point, it’s not clear when he will be back, so a return in 15 days isn’t guaranteed.

So who do the Phillies turn to? I think it has to be Antonio Bastardo, the lefty who has all of two saves in his career. Bastardo has been nails this year with a 0.96 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over 28 innings as he has used his fastball-slider combo to great effect. With a 10.61 K/9 mark he certainly has the ability to generate outs, but there are a couple of major concerns. (1) His BB/9 mark is 4.18, and that is far from ideal. (2) He allows 57 percent of batted balls to go in the air. Given that number it’s a shock that his HR/9 mark is only 0.64. It could easily rise, substantially. (3) As good as his stuff is, there’s no way Bastardo is going to be able to hold batters to a .120 average all year, especially when you notice that his BABIP is .153.

Given the total uncertainty with the Phillies’ bullpen it makes all the sense in the world to add Bastardo in any situation if you need help in the saves category, even if there is no certainty whatsoever about how long he will be asked to close, or how he will handle the pressure of the 9th inning.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

By Ray Flowers