Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your drink on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what the offer, click on the link to BBGuys Partners with DailyJoust. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Robinson Cano/Nick Swisher/Mark Teixeira: All three of these Yankees face King Felix, and in most cases that is a recipe for a benching. However, the three Yankees bats have had ample success against the Mariners’ ace.

Cano: .355/.429/581 with two HRs, 4 RBI in 31 at-bats
Swisher: .238/.333/.548 with 4 HRs, 5 RBI in 42 at-bats
Tex: .321/.393/.679 with five HRs, 9 RBIs in 53 at-bats

Sometimes things don’t make a lot of sense.

Casey Kotchman: Clay Buchholz has allowed only 10 hits to all the players currently on the Indians, it just so happens that six of them have been to Kotchman in 11 at-bats, and that’s good for a .545 average. Kotchman is also eight for 23 of late good for a .348 average the past eight days.

Adrian Beltre: The Rangers’ slugger is back to playing third base after dealing with a lower body injury for a while now, and he’s likely looking forward to facing C.J. Wilson given that he has seven hits in 19 at-bats against the lefty (.368/.429/.684).

Jeff Baker/Geo Soto: The two Cubs batters face the always moderately effective Randy Wolf (if you’re looking for a cheap play, Baker is your guy. Look at how many teams over at Fleaflicker have him rostered). The duo has combined to hit four homers with 13 RBI in 54 at-bats against Wolf with Soto hitting three of the bombs with a .333 average while Baker has hit .417 in the matchup.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Chris Capuano is undefeated through six starts with a 2.21 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 36 Ks in 36.2 innings. He faces a Rockies club that has hit just .235 against him, and Capuano is 5-1 in his career at Dodger Stadium where the game will take place.

Gio Gonzalez faces a Reds club that he has held to a .109 batting average over 14 innings. The Reds hitters have only managed to bat .109 against Gio who has allowed just three runs in his last five outings this season.

I know I wrote earlier about three hitters from the Yankees that have had a lot of success against Felix Hernandez, but that doesn’t mean King Felix is a bad play Saturday. He is 3-0 with a 0.38 ERA in his outings at the new Yankees Stadium.

Johan Santana has been fantastic this year with a 2.61 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with 34 strikeouts through 31 innings. He faces the Marlins Saturday, a team that he has gone 6-1 against with a 1.46 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 81 punchouts in 68 innings.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Michael Bourn/Jack Wilson: In 25 at-bats against Adam Wainwright Bourn has hit .320 whereas Wilson has hit .364 in 22 at-bats against the righty from St. Louis.

Omar Infante: The guy just keeps on hitting everyone, including going deep with a greater frequency than we’ve ever seen from the slap hitter. Infante has had immense success against the Mets’ R.A. Dickey with 12 hits in 25 at-bats, good for a  .480 batting average.

Andrew McCutchen: Hitting .330 through 28 games, McC has only two bombs on the year, though they have come in the past five days. McCutchen faces J.A. Happ Saturday, a hurler who he has beat around for three homers and five RBI in just 22 at-bats (he has also hit .364 against Happ).

David Wright: This guy has flat out murdered the Marlins’ Ricky Nolasco. Wright, in 57 at-bats, has hit .386 with a 1.118 OPS. He’s also gone deep four times with 13 RBI against the perpetually underachieving Nolasco who has actually performed pretty well this year.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

R.A. Dickey faces a Marlins club that continue to struggle to score despite the talent they possess. Dickey shut down the Marlins earlier this season with a one run, seven inning effort that led to a victory. Dickey was bombed in one start this season but in five of his six outings this season he has produced a “quality start.”

Doug Fister faces the Athletics, arguably the worst offense in baseball. Fister also tossed seven shutout innings in his first start back from the DL to up his season long mark to 10.2 shutout innings. Fister has enjoyed plenty of success in his career against the Athletics with a 5-3 record in 10 outings. Fister has also posted a 2.55 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over those 60 innings.

Shaun Marcum is 3-0 with a  2.70 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in three games against the Cubs. Rather amazingly he also has 17 Ks and just one walk in 20 innings against the Cubbies.

Adam Wainwright is 6-0 with a  2.25 ERA, 1.14 WHIP against Braves in 44 innings. Wainwright has also gone 2-0 with only five runs allowed in his last three starts this year as he rounds into form as he continues to work his way back from Tommy John surgery.

CONTESTS

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By Ray Flowers

Player Profiles: 2011 Review

Most people like to brag about their successes, but few stand accountable when they screw things up. I’m not one of those people. More times than not I’d like to think I’m right, but there are also times where I clearly miss the mark.

In the section of my website titled PLAYER PROFILES, you can find all the 2011 Player Reviews I wrote. In the piece today I’ll review my recommendations. While you can review the whole reports if you click on the link above, I’ll truncate things today by quoting only a section of my reviews (in italics), before giving my thoughts on how things turned out.

Today, I will look at the hitters I reviewed. Tomorrow I’ll take a look at the pitchers.

NOTE: I will grade myself on the scale of single, double, triple, home run.

Jose Bautista – .302-43-103-105-9
“Can he keep up his current pace? I can say with 100 percent certainty that he cannot… There is no way he hits .370, .350, or even .330… why is everyone so willing to throw out logic and common sense when it comes to Jose Bautista?”

Bautista had a phenomenal season, better than I thought he would as he posted a second straight 40-100-100 season while leading baseball with a 1.056 OPS. So I was wrong. Period. Still he did score less runs, knock in fewer runs and have fewer RBI than he did in 2010. At the same time, I was totally right about his production slowing. Bautista hit only 12 homers with a .257 batting average over his final 65 games.
DOUBLE

Justin Smoak: .234-15-55-38-0
“Smoak appears likely to be a mixed league asset this year at the corner infield position. At the same time he doesn’t appear likely to break out this season.”

Injuries killed Smoak this season, and he seemed to have forgotten how to hit in the second half as he had three homers and 12 RBI, with a .661 OPS, over his final 39 games.
SINGLE

Brett Wallace: .259-5-29-37-1
“A valuable NL-only option, be careful not to overestimate his value in mixed leagues because of his hot start.” He was hitting 367 over 23 games at the time the piece was written.

I knew he would regress, but even I ‘m surprised by how much he did. Shocked actually. He barely ended up having any value even as a corner infield option in NL-only leagues.
DOUBLE

Willie Bloomquist: .266-4-26-44-20
“…he is not a league average performer in batting average, OBP or SLG… Even with his amazing start, which I give him full props for, there is no way that I’m counting on a difference making season from Bloomquist.” He was leading baseball in steals at the time the article was written

Come on. Did anyone other than Kay Adams really think I was gonna be wrong here?
HOME RUN

Ryan Raburn: .256-14-49-53-1
“Ryan Raburn is an end game grab in mixed leagues as an outfielder. If he happens to qualify at second base he becomes a mid round grab. Either way he figures to produce solid numbers, but I would hold off in expecting him to blow it up in 2011.”

His average dipped a bit, it was in the .280′s in 2009-10, but he was basically the exact same guy he had been the previous two seasons. Of course, it was a season of two halves for Raburn as he had a .213 average an a .609 OPS in the first half and a .341 average and .967 OPS after the All-Star break.
DOUBLE

David DeJesus: .240-10-46-60-4
“Is DeJesus a starter in mixed leagues with five outfielders? Possibly, but only barely. Is DeJesus a starter in AL-only leagues with three outfielders? You bet your rear he is. It’s all about putting players in position to succeed…”

I was right about DeJesus having value in AL-only leagues, but I was shocked at how poorly he performed. Still, do you know how many AL outfielders hit 10 homers with 45 RBI and 60 runs scored? The answer is only 21.
DOUBLE

Nick Swisher: .260-23-85-81-2
“I’d look for him to return to his career level in batting average while continuing the trend that has seen him hit 24 homers in four of five seasons. He’s also knocked in 80-runs each of the past two years while scoring more than 80 in 5-straight, so with that you have your baseline of what to expect in 2011.”

After hitting .288 in 2011 Swisher hit .260 this season, six points clear of his career .254 mark. He fell just short of 24 homers, but one, though he did hit 80 RBI and runs scored. You can’t get more dead on with a prediction that I did here.
HOME RUN

Adrian Gonzalez: .338-27-117-108-1
“…Fenway really doesn’t boost the power numbers of left-handed batters at all… I have him at 9th at the position. Is that too low? I’ll freely admit that it might be, by a lot. Still, I’d take Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Mark Teixeira and Ryan Howard ahead of him with no problem. I think you have to also toss Prince Fielder into that mix…”

Can you be right while also being totally wrong at the same time? Gonzalez hit only 27 homers, a 5-year low, but that was all I was right about. Gonzalez killed it all year in a fantastic season for the BoSox. I was wrong. Still, I would caution expecting a repeat in 2012 in the batting average category. He hit .045 points above his career mark despite a normal 21.2 percent line drive rate (career 21.0) as his BABIP skyrocketed by .058 points.
SINGLE

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August30, 2011

(1) Andrew McCutchen one steal from joining the 20/20 club.

(2) Miguel Cabrera is simply phenomenal yet again.

(3) Carlos Lee on fire of late, RBI streak continues.

(4) Mark Buehrle is boring, but the guy is really good.

(5) Luke Hochevar pitching very well in the second half.

(6) Nick Swisher on fire, six homers in seven games. Has he lived up to my expectations? See 2011 Player Profile: Nick Swisher.

(7) Jose Reyes back from injury while Nelson Cruz is out yet again.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: July 5, 2011

photo © 2009 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are some answers to a few of the questions that I recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Would you trade away Alexi Ogando for Carlos Beltran?
– @ToddScreamer

Back on May 16th I wrote the following about Ogando. “…there is no way he can perform this well all season… Ogando has been magnificent, but if you can convince someone that he is a top-20 hurler, now is the time to move him.” I have to admit he’s held on much longer than I thought he would, but at the same time there are some troublesome signs. First, he’s failed to last more than five innings in three of four starts. Second, over his last four starts he’s 1-3 with a 6.61 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. Now you might say small sample size to brush off that recent run of poor work, but the mitigating factor here is that Ogando has already reached a career-high in innings pitched. In this day and age of pitch and inning counts, just how hard are the Rangers going to push Ogando? For that matter, how will his arm hold up under the increasingly heavy workload? Finally, Ogando owns a middling K/9 rate (6.73), a poor GB/FB (0.88) and there is still no way to explain his .247 BABIP given his over 22 percent line drive rate.

Beltran has been as good as ever at the plate. It’s pretty shocking actually given the physical issues that limited him to 145 games played the last two years. Let’s compare his work this season to his career averages.

Career: .282/.360/.494
2011: .281/.371/.492

It’s pretty amazing how close those numbers are. How about the counting stats you ask? He only has 350 plate appearances right now, so I’ll give you those numbers and his career averages per 350 PAs.

Career: 14 homers, 52 RBI, 54 runs, 14 steals
2011: 12 homers, 55 RBI, 46 runs, three steals

Pretty much everything suggests that Beltran is “back,” though the pink elephant in the room is the lack of steals. Given his knee issues the past few years they may never come back, but that doesn’t mean Beltran won’t continue to be a force with a bat in his hands.

I find it hard to believe I’m typing this, but I’m going to say Beltran is the better bet to replicate his first half work in the second half. Beltran could be traded to a team with a better offense and get a chance to ply his trade in a better home park, and that intrigues me. Plus, I’m just not sold that Ogando is (a) going to keep up his current level of performance and (b) that his arm isn’t going to fall off if he more than doubles his previous career-high in innings.

As a Matt Capps owner I picked up Joe Nathan. How much longer till I’m dropping Capps?
– @j_peterson730

Capps blew a save chance July 2nd, and then on July 3rd he was removed after allowing two hits (it was Glen Perkins and not Nathan who was called in to clean up the mess). Capps was not pleased, and he even got the kiss of death after the game when manager Ron Gardenhire said he was still the closer for the Twins. Capps has been as good as ever with a mere 1.03 BB/9 mark, he just doesn’t beat himself, but oddly his K/9 mark is way down to 5.40 per nine, a terrible mark (career 6.83). That’s danger territory. At the same time virtually all the other major indicators with him point to this being a “normal” Capps effort which equates to solid without being overly interesting or dominating.

Is that enough to hold off Nathan? There are two things at work here. (1) Nathan is still working his way back to full strength (Nathan’s thrown the ball very well since returning from the DL but we’re only talking about four innings). It is heartening though that over his last six outings that he’s picked up six Ks without a single walk. He’s getting closer, and the mph is creeping up, but he’s still not back to 2009 form quite yet. (2) The Twins continue to be beat down by injuries as much as any club in baseball, and as a result they are in fourth place in the AL Central. They’re only eight games out, but there is a chance that we reach the end of the month and the Twins make the decision to move Capps to another contender. If that occurs then the 9th would be wide open in Minnesota.

For now you have to keep Capps because you won’t get much for him on the trade market. There’s also the fact that he is still the Twins’ closer. However, know that he isn’t at all likely to be picking up saves in August unless it’s with another club.

I have Vlad Guerrero and Bobby Abreu. Nick Swisher just became a free agent. Drop one for him?
– @ZacharyReid

Swisher killed it in June hitting .326 with seven homers and 23 RBI. As a result he is on pace to go .248-19-92-77 over 533 ABs this season. In his career, per 533 at-bats, Swisher has produced a line of .252-27-84-88. Obviously he’s right back where he should be, and it’s clear he shouldn’t be on waiver-wires.

Guerrero has 442 homers, 1,461 RBI, owns a .318 career average and has more than 2,500 hits in his career. He’s also never failed to hit .295 in a season, and every time he has had 500 ABs he has gone deep at least times 27 with 83 RBI. He’s aging (36 years old), and his body has been oft injured the past few years, but it’s pretty shocking to find him on pace to go .276 with 11 homers and 53 RBI. Abreu is another aging vet who has one big advantage over Vlad – he still steals bases. Abreu has 13 thefts putting him on pace for a 13th straight season of at least 20 steals. He’s also seen his average come up to .285 on the year, and the dude can still get on base with a .395 OBP. His power seems pretty much gone, even 12 homers will be a surprise this season (he currently has three), but he’s still pretty stable at the dish and on the base paths.

Add Swisher at the expense of Bad Vlad.

Which Jays’ OF to go with: Travis Snider, Eric Thames or Rajai Davis?
– @nylivincamind

A first round selection in 2006, Snider has been up and down more than the super hero genre in movie theaters this year. When he’s in the majors he has struggled hitting .249 with a .743 OPS in his career, but he kills it in the minors. Snider hit .333 this year at Triple-A as the Jays left him down there a long while to make sure he found his stroke after hitting .184 in 87 at-bats with the Jays earlier in the year. Snider had three hits in his first game back, is just 23 years old, and scouts will tell you this is a 30 homer bat.

Thames hit 27 homers with 104 RBI last season at Double-A to gain everyone’s attention. With the Jays recent dump of Juan Rivera, Thames should get ample chance to prove himself in the bigs. He likes to swing at the first pitch, and sometimes struggles with secondary stuff, but there is no disputing that he has talent. However, he will likely have to contend with Corey Patterson and Davis for playing time which is why I’d prefer Snider over Thames.

What about Davis? It seems like he got the message that his playing time was about to be curtailed. Davis has five hits and four thefts in his last two outings. Despite all his struggles he is still looking at a third straight 40-steal season. It also deserves to be pointed out that Davis loved to hit in the second half as his average is .302, .046 points better than his first half mark, while his OPS goes up to .758, .119 points better than his first half mark.

Davis would be my choice here. His average should come up from his current .237 mark, and his wheels are elite giving him a chance to be a second half difference maker.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Around the Horn: April 28, 2011

(1) Yovani Gallardo is struggling. Is it time to panic?

(2) Add Joe Mauer to the list of injured players I was right about (Kendrys Morales, Justin Morneau)

(3) What’s wrong with Andrew McCutchen?

(4) Carlos Carrasco (elbow) to DL. Is Alex White worth a pickup?

(5) Nick Swisher 0-for-18, Carlos Lee 0-for-15. For more on Swisher see his 2011 Player Profile.

By Ray Flowers

MLB Grab Bag

The MLB Grab Bag is in full effect today. I’m going to meander around the world of baseball today, and I might even through in some none baseball stuff too.

I keep getting questions about Jose Bautista. Let me state it again – he has zero chance of repeating his 2010 effort. Obviously he will regress, the question is how much? I’m looking at a .260-30-90 type effort – though I really hate trying to predict the actual numbers. For more on the situation give Breaking Down: Jose Bautista a few minutes of your time.

I’m still nauseated by the Alex Rodriguez, Cameron Diaz food-feeding incident from the Super Bowl. Click on A Question, A Statement, A Pukefest for a rundown of the whole scene.

AUDIO: Looking for 10 minutes of superfantastic baseball talk? If you are make sure you listen to my interview with the Davis Sports Deli where we chatted about Albert Pujols, the state of the Red Sox and Yankees, why the Royals just can’t figure it out and just how good the Rangers offense could be.

I wrote about the signings of Josh Hamilton, Jered Weaver, Shaun Marcum, Jeremy Guthrie, Luke Scott and Orlando Cabrera over in MLB News and Notes: February 11. A quick review – Its a good deal for the Rangers. Weaver is a stud. Marcum is on the verge of becoming a fantasy star. Guthrie is likely a better pitcher than you think. Luke Scott, so-so. Orlando Cabrera is nothing more than a place holder.

I can’t help it. Every time Katy Perry’s California Gurls comes on the radio I end up bobbing my head. Man, I gotta get a date.

Nick Swisher is changing from his long time agent over to the Dark Lord of the Sith – Scott Boras. I’ve got four thoughts on this matter. (1) The timing of this is odd. Swisher is under contract fort this season at $9.0 million, and he has a $10.25 million club option for next season. (2) Swisher had a strong season last year. He should be productive this season, he always is, but I don’t think he will be able to replicate some of the numbers he put up last year. For more on the outlook of Swisher for 2011 give my 2011 Player Profile: Nick Swisher a read. (3) Scott Boras is flat out amazing. (4) Speaking of the Dark Lord, did you catch the best commercial of the Super Bowl, you know, the one with the young Darth Vader discovering the power of The Force?

There’s just no way that the Cardinals and Albert Pujols don’t work out a contract extension is there? If it doesn’t happen, could he join the San Francisco Giants? I admit it, it’s a total pipe dream with less chance of becoming a reality than me finding the woman of my dreams and getting married this weekend in a wildly romantic setting overlooking the Pacific Ocean. Can’t blame a kid for dreaming though can you?

I was a great hitter but my defense was, to be kind, poor. I’m 21st all-time in OBP and 25th in SLG while my overall OPS of .974 is the 15th best mark ever posted in the history of the game. Who Am I?

Did you see the report that Edinson Volquez turned down a 4-year deal from the Reds? The dude must have some serious stones. There’s no mention in the report of how much he was offered, but here is a quote from Volquez. “They were offering me a contract for four years, the same as Johnny Cueto, but I didn’t feel it was right for me..” It’s unclear if Volquez was saying that they offered him four years like Cueto or if they offered him the same exact deal for $27 million. Either way, I’m surprised that Volquez didn’t jump on the deal unless it was a total low ball offer. Volquez will make $1.6 million this season as he bets on himself and his continued return to prominence.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Player Profile: Nick Swisher

I admit it, I’m jealous of Nick Swisher. Not only is he a professional baseball player who is making millions of dollars (roughly $26 million by the end of the 2011 season), but he recently wed the beautiful JoAnna Garcia. Obviously he enjoys life, and every time you see the guy he seems to have a smile on his face. He also brought a smile to his fantasy owner’s faces last year as he set a career best with a .288 batting average while hitting 29 homers with 89 RBI and 91 runs scored for the Yankees. Can he repeat that effort in 2011?

The first issue that we need to deal with is that batting average of .288. Point blank, he will not repeat it in 2011. Let me count the ways.

(1) His career batting average before last season was .245 (even now it’s just .252).

(2) In his previous five full seasons Swisher had hit .260 just one time at .262 in 2007.

(3) He vastly exceeded his career average against both righties and lefties last season.
2010: .285 vs. righties, .294 vs. lefties
Career: .249 vs. righties, .260 vs. lefties.

Wait you say, that just proves he finally figured “it” out last season. Here is my reply to that line of thought – bull. Here’s why.

Swisher had a 19.6 line drive rate last season, the second best mark of his career and a percentage point clear of his career rate. Basically it was a strong performance for Swisher, but nothing outstanding to prove that he can sustain that .288 mark.

Swisher had a BABIP mark of .335 last season, and this is where the rubber hits the road. First, Swisher had only once in five previous seasons posted a mark of .300 and that was .301 in 2007. Second, Swisher owns a career .286 mark. Add points one and two together and it’s pretty darn obvious that his .335 mark was an outlier that will not be repeated.

Swisher, always one to take a walk, saw his walk rate plummet last season. In his career, Swisher has worked a walk in 13.2 percent of his career plate appearances. From 2006-09 that number was at least 13.9 percent each season. Care to guess what the mark was last year? Try 9.1 percent. It makes little sense that he walked less and saw his batting average increase. Maybe he also cut his strikeouts? Nope. Swisher struck out 24.6 percent off the time, less than a percentage point off his career mark of 25.3 percent. The result was a career worst BB/K rate of 0.42, a mark that was only 2/3 of his career rate (0.62).

Add that all up and it’s pretty clear that you should draft Swisher in 2011 expecting his .252 career average and not the strong .288 mark he sported last season.

There is also some concern about his counting numbers. I’m not raising the white flag of surrender by any means, but the fact that his walk rate plummeted last season is a concern. If he once again fails to draw walks, and his hit rate returns to “normal” and with it his batting average drops, Swisher won’t be able to match his career OBP of .358. If that happens his runs scored mark will likely fall. In his defense he has scored at least 80 runs in each of the past five years, so he usually figures out a way to score no matter what is going on.

Swisher is also a solid run producer having knocked in at least 74 runners in five of the past six years (he had 69 RBI in 2008), and his performance in this respect should remain stable in a loaded Yankees lineup. Oh, and don’t worry about the homer totals, though that should be obvious at this point. Swisher has hit at least 21-homers each of his six healthy seasons, has had a fly ball rate of at least 44 percent each of the past five years, and has posted a HR/F ratio of at least 14.8 percent each of the past three seasons.

I’m not going to put out actual number projections for 2011 for Swisher, I think projections are too variable to have a ton of value to be honest, but I’d look for him to return to his career level in batting average while continuing the trend that has seen him hit 24 homers in four of five seasons. He’s also knocked in 80-runs each of the past two years while scoring more than 80 in 5-straight, so with that you have your baseline of what to expect in 2011.

By Ray Flowers

Stocking Stuffers

My family loves the holidays, and Christmas Eve holds a special place in our hearts. It is the one day of the year that everyone comes together. At last count, that means 29 of us will be at my parents home on Friday to celebrate family, friendship and the holiday. I hope that all of you out there have a place that you will be this weekend, surrounded by friends and loved ones even if you don’t celebrate the holiday.

Now back to our regularly scheduled program.

Does Johnny Damon have anything left?
Word on the street is that the Yankees don’t hate the idea of bring Johnny Damon back to New York. While all fans of the Yankees should be worried about the sad state of their starting lineup, it doesn’t hurt for them to be looking into potentially cheap options to help to bolster their offense. However, would Damon accept a job that basically entailed being a 4th OF option, DH type? With Jorge Posada slated for the starting role at DH, and an outfield of Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher (I’m jealous he married the beautiful Joanna Garcia) and Brett Gardner, there just wouldn’t seem to be any shot at substantial at-bats for another bat with the Yanks. Damon is 429 hits from 3,000. If he were to take a part-time role he would have almost no shot of reaching that historic mark. The question is – does he deserve a full-time role and a shot at history?

Damon hit .271 last season .016 points below his lifetime mark. Was that dip a fluke? I won’t go as far as to say that, but it also isn’t time to panic. He had a 1.19 BB/K mark in ’10, just slightly below his 1.27 career mark. His 18.8 percent line drive rate was slightly below his 20.0 percent career mark, but not hide the women and children bad. Neither of those two numbers says he is finished. Damon also sported an 11.3 BB-rate which tied his career best rate that was, incidentally, posted in ’09. His K-rate of 16.7 percent was poor, the second worst mark of his career, but still a manageable number. In total, Damon really didn’t lose as much last season as it appeared on the surface, especially if you lay part of the blame in his dip in homers on a tough home ballpark in Detroit.

I’m not saying he is going to hit .280 with 15 homers, 90 runs and 20 steals like he used to, but I think he can still get on base, score some runs, and do enough at the dish and on the base paths to help out someone in a full-time role.

Should anyone want Joe Blanton?
When the Phillies added Cliff Lee they broke the bank to set up the most magnificent foursome in the game (you can read about the group in Hot Stove: Lee Isn’t Only Newsmaker). Any team would die to have a fifth starter as talented as Joe Blanton, but apparently the Phillies will need to move him so as to have some money available to address in-season needs in 2011. Blanton is due $8.5 million in each of the next two seasons which is a lot of money for Blanton, or is it? With guys like Ted Lilly and Jorge De La Rosa signing deals that will see them make more than $10 million a year, is Blanton really that bad an option at $8.5 million? The two lefites certainly have better power stuff, and therefore more fantasy upside, but in terms of real world value, it’s a lot closer between the three for the following reason – Blanton racks up innings year after year.

De La Rosa has one season in his career with more than 135-innings pitched.

Lilly has two seasons of 200-IP. He has also gone for 175-innings in each of the last five seasons.

Blanton has gone for 175 innings in each of the past six years, and five times he has thrown at least 194.

Clearly it’s not cartwheel time merely because of the innings totals, but Blanton is the right-handed Barry Zito at half the price, and I can think of a boatload of pitchers that offer less at a more substantial hit to the pocket book. If the Phillies are willing to eat a bit of the money Blanton is due, look for plenty of teams to be interested.

Bruce Chen – any interest?
One of the better free agent pitchers still on the market – who would have thought that would have been an accurate statement 12 months ago – Chen went 12-7 with a 4.17 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP for the Royals. So why did the Royals decide not to retain their biggest winner from 2010? First off, it’s cause they are the Royals. Nuff said. Secondly, they are actually making a smart decision, shockingly, in choosing not to overpay for a guy who really isn’t a very good pitcher. Chen posted a 6.29 K/9 mark in 2010, the second worst total of his 12 year career. He walked 3.66 batters per nine innings – above his 3.53 career mark. The resulting 1.72 K/BB mark is well into the “danger zone” unless that pitcher is a ground ball wonder. Chen isn’t as he has allowed a GB/FB ratio below 0.75 in each of the last four seasons. Chen also posted a below big league average 8.1 percent HR/F rate which just so happens to be a career best and roughly 60 percent of his career mark of 13.3 percent.

Give the Royals credit for not doing anything crazy – like ceding to Chen’s desire for a multi-year deal.

And with that I’m out for the next two days. I want to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and Happy Holiday Season. Give a loved one a hug and a kiss and celebrate the wonder that is this magical time of year.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: ALCS Preview

Ray Flowers breaks down the American League Championship Series with a position by position breakdown of the Yankees and the Rangers.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Feb.8, 2010

(1) The Yankees sign Marcus Thames and Randy Winn.

(2) Carlos Beltran continues bickering with Mets.

(3) Ty Wigginton on the move with additions of Garret Atkins and Miguel Tejada?

(4) Why can’t Jermaine Dye find a team?

(5) Brian Giles joins Dodgers.

By Ray Flowers