Player Profile: Wandy Rodriguez

Wandy Rodriguez is one of the better left-handed starting pitchers in the National League, even if that’s sometimes difficult to discern given that he plays for a team that is fairly inept in Houston. As a result of a lack of offensive support, Wandy has gone 22-23 the past two season causing people to often overlook his work on the hill. Due $10 in 2012, $13 million in 2013 and $13 million in 2014 (there is a $2.5 million buyout for ’14), the Astros may look to move Wandy this offseason (the Rockies are known to be very interested). What type of pitcher will Wandy be for whichever team he ends up pitching for in 2012? A very solid one if you ask me.

Wandy isn’t exactly the pitcher you think of when you talk about durability, but it should be noted that he has thrown 190 or more innings each of the past three years. There are only six other lefties in baseball in that club and that supports the contention that Rodriguez is one of the better lefties in the game if we can show that his performance has been impressive.

Rodriguez isn’t a massive strikeout arm in the mold of other Astros’ arms like J.R. Richard, Nolan Ryan and Mike Scott, but Wandy does own a 7.68 K/9 mark in his career, and in three of the past four season that K/9 mark of his has been better than 8.20. Moreover, when you combine the Ks and the innings you end up with a hurler who has struck out at least 165 batters in each of the past three years. There are only five other lefties in that club of 165 K men the last three years.

Unfortauntely, Wandy has seen his walk total increase the last couple of years as he walked a then career worst 68 in 2010 followed up by issuing 69 last year. After seeing his BB/9 dip below 2.90 in 2008-09, it’s disappointing to see that it has crept back up anove 3.10 the last two seasons. Still, he’s right about the league average here so it’s not awful. The result is a K/BB mark of at least 2.41 in each of the past five years, thought again, the mark has dipped to solid the last two years after being strong in 2008-09.

In terms of batted balls, Wandy has done a better job the past couple of years at generating grounders. In fact, he’s a pretty decent ground ball artist who has posted a GB-rate of 44.9 percent or better the past three years. The result has been a solid GB/FB ratio of 1.21 or better in each of those years culminating in a 1.49 mark in 2010. He’s also posted exactly the same number in the line drive category the past two years at 20.0 percent, right about identical to the big league average. He’s also about big league average when it comes to his HR/F ratio. However, there’s room for improvement here as his 13.0 percent mark last season was a six year high, and coming on the heels of 3-straight seasons below 10 percent some regression in 2012 would seem like a fair bet to place.

So in Rordiguez we have a fairly durable arm that posts strong strikeout totals and keeps the walks in check. He’s also better than average at inducing grounders which also help him to remain fairly consistent – not necessarily from start to start, but from season to season. Check out his numbers the past four years.

ERA: 3.54, 3.02, 3.60, 3.49
WHIP: 1.31, 1.24, 1.29, 1.31

Wandy isn’t likely to challenge for the Cy Young Award, and he’s not exactly a fantasy ace, but he is a solid, dependable arm that should be prized in mixed leagues in 2012.

By Ray Flowers

Pitching on Trial

The mighty has fallen. It may not be as depressing as the fact that the house you bought for $300,000 dollars two years ago might sell for $225,000 today, but in fantasy circles the loss was just as severe. Stephen Strasburg suffered a substantially torn ulnar collateral ligament, and what that means is that there is an exceedingly high probability that he will undergo Tommy John surgery. I already wrote about the ramifications of this situation in Five Questions: Is Strasburg Finished?, but I wanted to expand on something I only briefly mentioned in that piece – and that is the way that organizations baby their pitchers. Is there any benefit to this recent practice?

It has become a comical situation really. Teams are so worried about protecting their investments that they treat them as if they were made out of paper mache. In fact, the level of injury in today’s pitcher seems to be much higher than it was in years past despite the advent of advanced physical training and medical proficiency. How is it that guys who are bigger, stronger, more reliably trained, and more closely watched than ever before break down more quickly than at any point in the past? I just don’t get it.

In the case of the Nationals, the team counted everything Strasburg did with the attention of an auditor from the government who is trying to extract every penny from your wallet. They never let him toss more than 99 pitches in a big league game, and only twice was he allowed to log even seven innings in an outing. A lot of good that all that monitoring did for Mr. Strasburg.

At the other end of the spectrum we have his teammate, Livan Hernandez, who has never missed a buffet in his life – yet he continues to roll on basically injury free. Listed as 35 years old, he might actually be 40 for all we know, Livan continues to rack up innings year after year, and he’s now 11 innings from 13th straight season of at least 180-innings. Is Livan simply gifted with a “rubber” arm? Was he genetically predisposed to never have a serious arm problem? Has he avoided injury because his career average for a fastball is a mere 85 mph? I mean after all, Strasburg’s average change-up this season was 89.7 mph.

I have no idea what the answers are to these questions. All I know is that time after time we are smacked in the face by the fact that even though we think we have it figured out, we actually have no clue.

Strasburg had his innings pitched totals limited – almost obnoxiously so. Strasburg had hid pitch total managed fastidiously as well. Yet here we are with a torn tendon and the inevitable surgery.

Perhaps the truth is that human beings simply aren’t meant to throw a baseball over an over again at such speeds. There were hurlers in the past who could rush it up there in the high 90′s, guys like Walter Johnson, Bob Feller, Nolan Ryan and J.R. Richard obviously come to mind, but there is no disputing the fact that today there are more pitchers than ever capable of tossing the old ball at speeds in excess of 95 mph. As training methods have improved, pitchers are able to get more out of their body than ever before, but perhaps we’ve gotten to the point that we have taxed the human body so excessively that sooner or later, like a taught rubber band, there will be an inevitable snap back.

If you ask me here is the simply truth – each man has a certain amount of bullets in his gun. It doesn’t matter if he stands 5’11″ or 6’6″, it doesn’t matter if he weighs 165 or 250 lbs, and it doesn’t matter if he throws 87 or 97 mph. Sooner or later everyone’s arm goes, and for every Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine we have a Francisco Liriano, Stephen Strasburg, Chris Carpenter, Brian Wilson, Joakim Soria etcetera, etcetera. The real issue here isn’t training methods or velocity as much as it should be a realization that sooner or later all pitchers have to pay the price for the fame and fortune they attain.

By Ray Flowers

The Curious Case of Trevor Cahill

I admit it, I’m not always right. I’d like to think that more often than not I’ve got a handle on the world of baseball, but every once in a while I just have to throw my arms up and say I have no idea what is going on (i.e. Jose Bautista and his insane run to 40 homers). In the case of the historic excellence of Trevor Cahill I have to admit that not only did I not see it coming, I’m utterly shocked, and that doesn’t happen that often.

Here are the facts.

Cahill is second in the AL in ERA at 2.50.
Cahill is second in the AL in WHIP at 0.98.
Cahill is first in the AL in batting average against at .195.

As if that isn’t enough to knock you off your chair if you have been on a desert island with Yvonne Strahovski for the past four months (the beautiful blonde from CHUCK), how about this little whopper of historical greatness:

Trevor Cahill has made 20-straight starts in which he has thrown at least five innings while never allowing more than six hits.

While that may not sound like much, here is the context that makes that statement utterly amazing. That stretch of 20-straight starts of five innings and six or fewer hits allowed ties Nolan Ryan for the all-time modern day major league record. Think about that. I just said the words ‘all-time’ and ‘Nolan Ryan’ in the same sentence, and then related that statement to the performance of Mr. Cahill. Shocking isn’t a strong enough term to describe my reaction.

I’ll be the first to admit that scouts have long been impressed with the stuff of Cahill who, literally, has a difficult time throwing the ball straight (he gets tremendous movement on this tosses). At the same time, we all know that his current pace is nuts, don’t we?

(1) His current BAA is a joke. His stuff isn’t near strong enough to warrant a sub .200 mark (last season the best mark in baseball was .200 by Clayton Kershaw).

(2) Though he is an excellent ground ball inducer (56 percent of batted balls), there is little to no chance that Cahill will be able to continue to hold batters to a mere 14.4 percent line drive rate. Remember, the big league average is about 20 percent. Even if he substantially betters that league average mark, it’s still decidedly foolish to think he will be able to keep that LD-rate this low.

(3) His BABIP is laughably low. His .212 mark is .064 points below his mark from last season and it’s the best mark in the AL by some .044 points this year (Jeff Niemann). There is no way, none, zip, zilch, nada, that he can sustain that pace.

Does this mean that Cahill will fall flat on his face over the final quarter of the season? Not necessarily. Sometimes players are so locked in that they can outperform their skill level and taunt the gods of logic. At the same time, sooner or later the universe has a way of correcting itself (remember what happened to Fausto Carmona after his magical 2007 season?). Sooner or later Cahill is going to have to pay the Pied Piper – it’s only a matter of when his payment will be due.

By Ray Flowers

The Case of Jon Niese

On Monday I profiled Barry Zito, you can find that write up at The Case of Barry Zito, after seeing him twirl a gem on Friday night against the Mets. There wasn’t just one lefty who was dealing it on that night as Jonathan Niese of the Mets allowed a mere run in seven innings of work. He wasn’t quite as good as Zito who tossed eight shutout innings, but Niese was good enough that I thought it would be wise to revisit my take on his value heading into the second half because to this set of eyeballs he looked very, very good on that night.

Niese, who actually possesses a repertoire that is fairly close to the one that is featured by Zito (with the addition of about three to four mph on his fastball), has been extremely effective of late. If you remove his horrible outing on June 22nd when he allowed six runs in just 4.2 innings against the Tigers, Niese has thrown up 7-straight “quality starts.” In that time he has allowed two or fewer earned runs five times, and over his last four starts, despite a 2-2 record, he has a 1.63 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 8.13 K/9 and a 3.57 K/BB ratio. Yeah, he hasn’t just been good, he has been Kim Kardashian in a bikini hot. Speaking of Kim, I’m not going to sit here and say that she isn’t a looker, but would I be insane to suggest that her sister Kourtney is actually hotter? Back to baseball.

If I’m going to suggest paying close attention to Zito in the second half as I did in the previous piece, I’d be stupid not to offer the same advice with Niese, especially when you compare the performance of each to the other.

Niese: 3.44 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 7.17 K/9, 2.48 K/BB, 1.55 GB/FB
Zito: 3.51 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 6.66 K/9, 1.90 K/BB, 0.82 GB/FB

Neither lefty is a strikeout machine, but I much prefer the 7+ mark of Niese to the mark in the 6′s level of Zito. I also like the profile of Niese more given that his GB/FB ratio is greatly enhanced compared to the fly ball tendencies of Mr. Zito.

Is it possible that I haven’t been willing to give Niese his due? Based upon what my eyes saw last week, and the review of the numbers I just quickly went through, it’s fairly evident that my New York bias has precluded me from noticing that the young lefty from the Mets is pitching at a pretty high level right now and that he shouldn’t be on waivers in mixed leagues.

Fun with Numbers

Last week in Numbers: A Look Back, I took a look at some of the outstanding numbers posted by Hall of Fame ballplayers. I wanted to close the piece today with another couple of noteworthy accomplishments from the annals of the game.

* In 1890 Amos Rousie walked an all-time record 289 batters in a season in his second year as a professional. You can forgive that walk total given that he worked 548.2 innings that season. Oh yeah, he also completed 56 of his 62 starts for the New York Giants. Last season the entire National League completed 77 games.

* Speaking of innings pitched, how does that mark of 548.2 rank in the history of the game? Try just 37th. In fact, there have been 13 seasons in big league history in which a hurler tossed more than 600 innings with the record being 680 by Will White in 1879. That year White completed every single one of his 75 starts on his way to 43 victories for the Cincinnati Reds. One other note. He was pretty stingy with a 1.99 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP.

* No pitcher in the history of the game was harder to hit than Nolan Ryan. Over the course of his career he allowed 6.56 hits per nine innings. For context, Mariano Rivera has posted a mark of 6.92 in his career.

By Ray Flowers

Big Unit Calls it a Career

One of the greatest lefties in the history of the game, Randy Johnson, retired on Tuesday leaving a legacy of domination in his wake.

By Ray Flowers

The Other Deal

Earlier today I broke down the big deal of the day as the Yankees picked up Javier Vazquez in exchange for Melky Cabrera and a couple of prospects (you can read all about the deal at Breaking Down: Javier Vazquez). Here, I’ll break down “the other deal” dealing with two potentially dominating righties.

Note: You can also read Paul Bruno’s take on the deal at JaysFan.com.

THE DEAL

Mariners receive: RHP Brandon League and minor leaguer (either OF Yohermyn Chavez or C Brian Jeroloman)
Blue Jays receive: Brandon Morrow.

Mariners Haul

We don’t know yet which minor leaguer will be included with Brandon League. Neither option is a top flight, sure fire star at the big league level, but most pundits seem to favor Chavez even though he isn’t amongst the top-10 prospects in the Blues organization (Jeroloman can pick it behind the dish, but his bat is sorely lacking).

League throws a heavy, and I mean power-sinking fastball that has averaged 95.5 mph during his big league career. When you combine that heat with the darting, downward action, it’s hardly a surprise that League has held batters to a .258 batting average in his career (the surprise is that the number is that high). A potentially dominating strikeout arm – he had 76 punchouts in just 74.2 innings last season – League is much, much better than the 3-6 record with a 4.58 ERA that he posted last season. The biggest plus on his side is that he has brought his walk rate down two years running, and last years 2.53 BB/9 mark allowed him to post a strong 3.62 K/BB ratio given his strikeout abilities. And that is just it. If League throws strikes and avoids the walk he could potentially dominate. Don’t forget that this man owns a 3.13 GB/FB ratio in his career, and when you strike out a batter per inning and have a GB/FB mark better than three, well, they usually end up putting your face on the cover of a video game.

Blue Jays Haul

Brandon Morrow was drafted 5th overall out of the University of California at Berkley in 2006. Standing 6’3″ and weighing about 200 lbs, Morrow has one of those arms that scouts simply fall all over themselves to sign. The owner of a 95 mph fastball, batters have little chance to hit him when he is “on,” a fact reflected in his .223 BAA mark through 197.2 career innings. In that time Morrow has posted a solid 3.96 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning with 204, so why would the Mariners consider trading this 25 year old who most scouts think will either be a #2 or #3 starter? The Mariners must have grown tired of his inability to throw strikes. In his brief career, remember batters hit just .223 against him and he owns a 9.29 K/9 mark, Morrow has handed out free passes like Santa gives out hope during the Christmas season. Morrow posted a 5.68 BB/9 mark last season in 69.2 innings and that was an improvement over his career mark of 5.83.

It should also be pointed out that he has spent time as a starter and reliever (the Mariners yanked him around the past two years which certainly hasn’t helped his development). Here are his numbers in both roles.

Reliever: 3.65 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 10.12 K/9, .217 BAA in 118.1 IP
Starter: 4.42 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 8.05 K/9, .232 BAA in 79.1 IP

The numbers regress a bit when he has starts, hardly a shock given the 100 percent all the time attitude hurlers can take when working only an inning out of the bullpen.

MOVING FORWARD

As nice a power arm as League has, and let’s face the Mariners are certainly wise to be hedging their bets with David Aardsma who had a lot of ninth inning success last year despite some rather odd totals in his pitching line (like a sky-high fly ball rate but a miniscule HR/F mark), I just don’t understand this deal at all. Morrow certainly needs to figure out a way to harness his stuff, but if he does this young man is a potential all-star. Not that he will ever amount to anything remotely like guys such as Randy Johnson, Nolan Ryan and Sandy Koufax, but the history of the game is littered with plenty of hard throwers who took a few years to get their barrings (it’s also why a guy like Oliver Perez is making $12 million a year). If Aardsma implodes and League goes on to save 30 games than no one will likely be too upset, but if Morrow locates his control and rips off a bunch of 15 victory, 200 K seasons this is going to look like one awful move. You gotta love what the Blue Jays are doing this off-season as their new front office group clearly is bringing in boatloads of talent to vie for major league jobs.

By Ray Flowers