Fantasy Baseball: Bullpen Woes

It’s already started, and no one is pleased about it. I’m not talking about the fact that Kim Kardashian is wearing tight skirts and sexy outfits despite being pregnant and really showing (am I the only one that thinks that is a hideous look?). I’m talking about 9th inning woes. Last year two-thirds of closers changed from Opening Day on, and the turnover is usually in the 40-50 percent range on a yearly basis. It’s why I always preach going for the skills/talent over the role. Eventually the skills win out, and more often than not you can roster skills for a lot less on draft day than roles. With that, here are some situations to monitor.

NOTE: Don’t forget that the Reds have already moved on from Jonathan Broxton to Aroldis Chapman, so the merry go round actually started before the season even began.

BREWERS

John Axford is third in baseball the last two years with 81 saves. Still, he blew nine chances last year an in two outings this season he’s allowed four runs while recording five outs. Panic stricken owners are running for cover all over the place. You would have to think that his past success will give Axford some rope, but his fastball was down about four mph in his last outing, so perhaps his arm isn’t right. It would appear that Jim Henderson would be next in line a season after he produced a 13.21 K/9 mark and allowed one homer in 30.2 innings thanks to his 95 mph heater. Axford owners would be wise to add Henderson, and Jim is worthy of throwing a few FAAB bucks at this week.

CARDINALS

We still don’t know how long Jason Motte will be sidelined, it’s All Quiet on the Western Front with his progress, but it’s looking like it could be a significant situation. As such, Mitchell Boggs became the hottest pickup in many fantasy leagues in Week 1. Hopefully you didn’t go all in. Boggs blew his first save chance this season, and as I’ve been telling those that asked, he’s not an elite arm – he’s much more Jim Johnson than Jonathan Papelbon. Boggs has a strong 52 percent ground ball rate in his career, but he’s also a below average strikeout arm (6.68 per nine) and his K/BB ratio, even the last two years, isn’t great (2.52). On the other hand, Trevor Rosenthal is an elite arm who regularly blows 97 mph cheese past batters. In his young career he has a 12.00 K/9 mark, a 4.00 K/BB ratio and an even better ground ball rate than Boggs at 55 percent. I’d be targeting Rosenthal as a cheap pickup right now, one with huge upside and potentially a fantasy goldmine.

CUBS

Carlos Marmol has had a rough start. What a shock. In his outing he allowed a run, walked a batter, and got one out. Marmol has still blown only one of his last 20 save chances, and the Cubs won’t get much on the trade front if they demote him to middle relief and then try to deal him. Kyuji Fujikawa came in to save Marmol’s bacon and pick up the save, but he recorded all of one out. I know he’s had a ton of success as a professional, and that folks really like his makeup, but it’s far to early to bail on Marmol and go all in on Fujikawa. Now if Kyuji is on waivers right now… he’s a must add. What, you don’t think I’m devoid of a brain, do you?

TIGERS

The Tigers signed Jose Valverde to a minor league contract even though they continually said they had no interest in bringing back into the fold the majors saves leader the past three seasons. So much for that when Phil Coke is out there blowing leads in the 9th inning (I warned you not to get overly excited about Coke getting a long look in the 9th inning this season). Valverde is likely weeks away from being called to the big leagues, he’ll eventually report to Triple-A once the team is comfortable that his arm is right,m as he tries to prove that he is worthy of a roster spot. Valverde’s a 35 year old arm who struck out fewer than 6.50 batters per nine innings last season which is more than three an a half batters below his career 9.91 per nine mark (a total he last reached in 2008). I’d still say that Joaquin Benoit, Al Alburquerque and Octavio Dotel have better arms, I might even add in there Brayan Villarreal to be honest, but sometimes experience wins out over talent.

Oh, and finally there is this… Francisco Cordero can be ruled out for the entirety of the 2013 season as he was forced to undergo surgery on his non-throwing shoulder (he wasn’t able to convince anyone to sign him this offseason). The owner of seven 30 save seasons, tied for the 5th most in the history of the game, Cordero also owns 329 career saves, the 12th most in the history of the game.

By Ray Flowers

Deals a Startin

It was only a matter of time before the deals started to fly with the Trade Deadline set for July 31st. I usually avoid the rumors, they tend to change like every 13 minutes, but today we’ve actually got a deal that we can discuss. Here are the parameters.

White Sox Receive: Jason Frasor and Zach Stewart

Blue Jays Receive: Edwin Jackson and Mark Teahen

That’s what we know for certain. However, there’s a twist. It looks like this deal is a precursor to another move. Here is that proposed deal.

Cardinals Receive: Edwin Jackson, Octavio Dotel, Mark Rzepcynski and Corey Patterson

Blue Jays Receive: Colby Rasmus, Trevor Miller, Brian Tallet, P.J. Walters

I know, my brain hurts too. Here are some of my thoughts on the key players involved in the deals.

Colby Rasmus
A five tool talent prone to mental lapses and selfish/destructive behavior, the dude is just 24 years old and just a year removed from a .276-23-66-85-12 campaign. He can’t hit lefties (.228 in 303 at-bats in his career), is prone to massive slumps (he’s hit .201 over his last 42 games), and he strikes out too much (more than a fifth of his at-bats), but there is no disputing the talent – and he’s still just 24 years

Edwin Jackson
A nice arm no doubt, but he’s always been inconsistent. On the year his K/BB ratio of 2.49 would be a career best, but he still sports a 3.92 ERA, has a high WHIP at 1.42, and is a roller coaster ride. He’ll move to the NL which should help at least a bit, making him a solid add in mixed leagues. He’ll be a free agent at the end of the year, so he has something to pitch for.

Octavio Dotel
He can still fling it, he has better than a K per inning this year, and he’s even done a solid job limiting the walks with a 3.68 per nine mark which would be a four year low. He’s also locked in right now with a 2.40 ERA over his last 19 appearances.

Jason Frasor
This righty really has better stuff than he’s given credit for. He doesn’t have one outstanding skill, but he usually throws strikes, doesn’t kill you in the ratio categories (2.98 ERA, 1.25 WHIP), and generally does a good job keeping the ball in the yard (0.76 HR/9 for his career).

Corey Patterson
Fleet of foot, Patterson always seems to have a stretch where he flat out kills it, but in the end the numbers never seem to get to where you look at them with excitement (i.e. his slash line is .252/.287/.379). Really, a .287 OBP? The six homers, 44 runs and 13 steals make him a solid league specific add, but he simply isn’t a very good hitter.

Mark Rzepcynski
Rumpelstiltskin has a nice arm. He get Ks, he has an 8.22 K/9 mark in the bigs, and he gets grounders like no ones business (54.4 percent). He may never pan out as a starter, but he could have a long and successful career with his skill set coming out of the pen.

Zach Stewart
A 3rd round pick in 2008, Stewart might end up doing the old starter in the minors, reliever in the majors thing. Also like Mark R., Stewart has a nice ground ball arm, though his K-rate has dipped a bit the two years (about seven per nine the past two years in Double-A).

Mark Teahen
Really? I’ll say this, he is a great follow on Twitter (@ESPY_TEAHEN)

Arms for the New Year

Just like I did last week in Hot Stove: The Arms Race, I’ll spend my time today detailing some of the hurlers that have found new homes.

The Brandon Webb Saga

Finally. After pretty much every team in baseball was tied to the righty at some point this offseason, Webb will take his surgically repaired shoulder to the AL Champion Rangers in 2011 after agreeing to a 1-year deal with a base salary of $3 million. It should be pointed out that the deal isn’t official, and since it is dependent on Webb passing a physical there is still a chance that the deal could be scuttled, but it appears like the deal will be wrapped up soon.

The Rangers lost Cliff Lee, their only ace level starter, but C.J. Wilson was pretty impressive in his own right last season in his first year as a starter (he had the 10th best ERA in the AL at 3.35). Colby Lewis, who found his groove in Japan, returned to the States with his rhythm intact as he struck out 196 batters, the 7th best mark in the AL. Tommy Hunter went 13-4 last season with an ERA of 3.73 over 23 appearances, and Derek Holland has been the arm of the future for the Rangers for a while now. That would appear to leave the 5th spot for Webb, a great fit for a guy who simply cannot be counted on after throwing four innings the past two years because of shoulder woes.

Texas isn’t a very good place to pitch given that the ballpark was 4th in the AL in allowing runs and 5th in homers according to Park Indices. The good news is that if Webb’s shoulder is back to something near his pre-injury form it likely won’t matter. A ground ball machine because of his sinking fastball, Webb had the highest ground ball rate of any pitcher in baseball who threw at least 500-innings from 2005-08.

Still, there are a plethora of legitimate concerns.

(1) Is he healthy, and if he is, will he be able to return to his pre-injury form?

(2) Even if healthy, will he have the stamina to last 200-innings after basically missing two years?

(3) If he has lost some sink/movement on his pitches, how will the move to Texas impact his performance given that he will be facing the stouter offenses of the Junior Circuit?

What did the Rangers add to their rotation? From a fantasy perspective, don’t by the hype. You can surely take a late shot on Webb if the reports are positive during camp, but keep in mind the potential pitfalls, which are many, before you go reaching for Webb’s services.

One last note. If Webb does indeed return to some semblance of his earlier form, his signing would appear to allow the Rangers their preferred option of once again going with Neftali Feliz in the 9th inning instead of having to shift him back into the rotation to fill a glaring need.

Octavio Dotel to the Blue Jays

It’s not a lock, but multiple sources are reporting that Dotel will sign a 1-year deal for $3.5 million to join the Blue Jays with the assumption being that he will be given the first crack to take over in the ninth inning for free agent Kevin Gregg (who is still looking for a team by the way). For some thoughts on Dotel, make sure you read Hot Stove: The Arms Race, where I pointed out that, despite his faults, that Dotel can still sling it with the best of them.

This move would seem to relegate Jason Frasor, once again, to a setup role. I say once again because this guy has pitched pretty darn well the last two years with a 3.12 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.98 K/9 and a solid 2.81 K/BB ratio. Keep an eye on Frasor. If he can keep the ball on the ground again – his GB-rate was back above his career 44.3 percent mark at 46.4 after back-to-back years below 39 percent – he could easily have another successful campaign and work his way into the 9th inning mix when the inevitable slump hits Dotel.

Takashi Saito Joins Brewers

Saito agreed to a 1-year deal with the Brewers on Monday. He isn’t a threat to John Axford who will, barring something unforeseen, open the year as the Brewers’ undisputed closer, but that doesn’t mean Saito shouldn’t be looked at in the fantasy game.

Saito will be 41 on Valentine’s Day, and that alone would be a big concern. Throw in the fact that he continues to be bothered by on and off again issues with his arm and on the surface he would appear to be off limits. However, whenever his elbow isn’t barking, the guy is dominating. In a big league career of 299.1 innings Saito has produced a 2.19 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 11.00 K/9 mark and a 3.89 K/BB ratio thanks in no small part to that disappearing slider of his. Amid little fanfare, Saito posted an enormous 11.50 K/9 rate and a 1.07 WHIP for the Braves in 2010 signaling that he can still get it done when his body permits.

J.C. Romero Back in Philly

After failing to work things out with Dennys Reyes, the Phillies had a hole in their bullpen for a left-handed specialist. Naturally, they turned to Romero. Despite the fact that the Phils turned down his $4.5 million option for 2011 there was always mutual interest if the price was right. Apparently the two sides found that common ground.

A piece of advice for you if you have a son and are wondering what you should teach him to be when he gets older – make sure you teach him to throw left-handed. Romero keeps getting work year after year, and making millions of dollars, despite the fact that he just isn’t very good. In 628 big league appearances Romero owns a 4.08 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP, decidedly average numbers. He is also well below average with a hideous 5.14 BB/9 mark and a pathetic 1.40 K/BB rate. He can get lefties out, he has held them to a .215 BAA in his career, but even when having that success he really hasn’t all that good with a 3.83 BB/9 mark and a 1.20 WHIP. So hopefully you brought your kid a left-handed glove for the holidays. Clear away the snow and get that kid a throwin.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: The Arms Race

In today’s article I’ll expound upon a rather interesting comparison between setup men. I’ll also discuss another reliever looking for a home, an all-time great who might retire, and the hottest arm on the free agent market if you decide that based upon the numbers of teams that want to sign him to a deal.

Daniel Bard vs. Joba Chamberlain: The perception is that the Red Sox righty reliever is a much better option in 2011. However, is that really the case? Let’s compare each hard throwing setup man to the other based on 2010 numbers.

Bard:1-2, 1.93 ERA, 1.00 WHIP
Joba: 3-4, 4.40 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

Clearly Bard was the better pitcher last season, and it wasn’t even close. Or was it?

Bard: 9.16 K/9, 3.62 BB/9, 2.53 K/BB, 1.23 GB/FB
Joba: 9.67 K/9, 2.76 BB/9, 3.50 K/BB, 1.22 GB/FB

Admit it – you almost fell out of your chair when you saw those three numbers, didn’t you? That’s right, Joba had a better K-rate, walked fewer batters, and had a better K/BB ratio. Given that their GB/FB ratios were virtually identical, if that was the only data you had at your fingertips you would say that Joba was the better pitcher, and it wouldn’t even be a tough call. So how in the world were his ERA and WHIP so much worse than Bard’s marks last year? I think I have a rather simple answer.

Bard: .225 BABIP, 15.4 LD-rate
Joba: .343 BABIP, 17.2 LD-rate

Yahtzee. Bard’s BABIP was artificially low while Joba’s was artificially high. That’s obviously a huge piece of this puzzle. We can make the argument that both hurlers also had artificially low line drive marks, but clearly the difference between the LD-rate and the BABIP mark was totally nuts for Bars. The big league average is 20 and .300, yet somehow Chamberlain flew past that to an obnoxious .343 BABIP even though his LD-rate was terrific. It just doesn’t make much sense. If both hurlers maintain their ’10 line drive rate in ’11, you would expect Bard to have a BABIP mark of about .270 and Joba to have a mark of about .290. If the gap does close to .020 points instead of last years .118 spread, you can bet the fantasy performance of both hurlers will be pretty darn close. Oh, and don’t forget that the Red Sox added reliever Bobby Jenks to their bullpen which might mean that Bard wouldn’t be the first choice to close if something were to happen to Jonathan Papelbon. As for the Yankees situation, do you have any doubt that Joba would get the call in the 9th inning if Mariano Rivera went down?

Octavio Dotel: He has certainly seen better days, but the guy still throws hard and knows how to post strikeouts. In fact, his 10.55 K/9 mark in 2010 was his fourth straight year in double digits and just slightly below his career 10.95 mark. Of course, walks are always a concern, more than four per nine in his career, and they were even above that poor mark up at 4.50 last year. Still, when looking for a power arm on the cheap, he is one of the best bets still on the market, so you can understand why he has been linked to the Rays, Blue Jays and Pirates.

Andy Pettitte: It really is starting to sound like Pettitte may indeed hang up his spikes. According to Buster Olney, Pettitte isn’t preparing as he normally would with his offseason training regimen. Even if he were to sign a deal with the Yankees, at this point he’d be weeks behind where he would normally be at physically. The Yankees have to be feeling like that kid who knows he was bad and is somehow holding out hope that Santa will overlook that fact and still bring him a gift on Christmas. As of now, here is the Yankees rotation: CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Phil Hughes and ??? They are nearly to the point of desperation with the only legitimate internal option apparently being Ivan Nova (I’m not buying Sergio Mitre). It’s not a good situation to be in. What is that old say, pitching wins championships? If that is the case, the Yankees are in serious trouble.

Brandon Webb: Last night there was a mystery team added to the mix (Ala the Phillies with the Cliff Lee negotiations). Who is that mystery team? We don’t know other than the club is from the NL Central and that it isn’t the Reds or Brewers. Since everyone already knows the Cubs are interested, that would seem to mean that either the Cardinals, Pirates or Astros are in the mix. Come Wednesday, we now have a second mystery team in the mix according to Webb’s agent Jonathan Maurer. Has there been this much interest in a broken down asset since the housing market crash?

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July 21, 2010

(1) Clayton Kershaw suspended, then appeals suspension.

(2) Brett Myers, 20 starts, 20 outings of at least six innings.

(3) Jose Bautista, David DeJesus, Jayson Werth, Prince Fielder, Jorge Cantu, Adam LaRoche rumors heating up.

(4) Mets looking to bolster bullpen.

(5) Pedro Martinez will not pitch in 2010.

(6) Scott Sizemore to play third base for Tigers.

(7) Carl Crawford doesn’t wear a cup.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April28, 2010

(1) Kurt Suzuki continues to miss time with sore side. Jake Fox nearing catcher eligibility.

(2) Brett Anderson’s elbow flexor strain is really a muscle strain.

(3) Blown saves everywhere – Octavio Dotel, Trevor Hoffman, Ryan Madson.

(4) Frank Francisco closing gap on Neftali Feliz?

(5) Matt Capps first to 10 saves.

(6) Justin Morneau could miss rest of the week with back issue.

(7) The world of numbers and hitting broken down at By The Numbers – Hitters including the lack of power from Joe Mauer.

By Ray Flowers

MIC WARS

It’s my birthday today. I know, I know, those of you that know me knew I was a fool without need of the support of the day of my birth being April Fool’s Day, but there certainly is some nice symmetry here is there not?

With that, I thought I would move on to some actually baseball talk. Dave Gawron organized what we hope will be the first annual MIC WARS. What is MIC WARS? Simply it’s a 12-team mixed league, using 5×5 scoring, that includes 12 shows that talk baseball on Blog Talk Radio (you can find my show, which I do each day with Kyle Elrink, at 8-9 AM PST, Mon. – Fri., or you can check out the archive at The Fantasy Buffet). Before moving on to my team, here is a link to Dave’s review of the entire draft so you can see how it played out. And here is Team Fantasy Buffet (I have the #4 pick in the snake draft that starts 14 hitters, and nine pitchers).

C: Kurt Suzuki (14), Carlos Santana (25), Adam Moore (26)
1B: Derrek Lee (7), Lance Berkman (10)
2B: Jose Lopez (8), Howie Kendrick (9)
3B: Pablo Sandoval (3), Casey Blake (24)
SS: Alexei Ramirez (11), Ian Desmond (23)
OF: Ryan Braun (1), Jacoby Ellsbury (2), Jason Bay (5), Andrew McCutchen (6), Corey Hart (16), David DeJesus (28), Desmond Jennings (29)

SP: CC Sabathia (4), James Shields (12), Jonathan Sanchez (13), Jered Weaver (15), Aaron Harang (21), Brett Myers (30)
RP: Brad Lidge (17), Octavio Dotel (18), Ryan Madson (19), Chris Perez (20), Matt Thornton (22), Joba Chamberlain (27)

C: Suzuki is s top-5 option, and while Santana and Moore may not have starting spots, I bet the duo combines for at least 400 highly effective at-bats.

1B: Two grey beards, but both are capable of 25 homers, 100 RBI and 90 runs scored. I’ll take that all day.

2B: Lopez will likely also qualify at third, which is why I took him over Dan Uggla. As for Kendrick, I was tempted to wait and try and target Rickie Weeks later in the draft, but I just couldn’t pass on Kendrick who could hit .300 while going 15/15.

3B: Sandoval is money, plus he’s the Kung Fu Panda and plays for my favorite team. Casey Blake is boring yet highly efficient, and he is a more than adequate backup at third.

SS: Alexei Ramirez may never have that 20/20 season, but I’ll take a repeat of last year (.277-15-68-71-14). Desmond is a bit of a wildcard, but it looks like he will open the year as the Nationals starter at short and could very well surprise given his draft position.

OF: Braun and Ellsbury is a dynamic duo. Bay is as steady as they come as the only OF who in four of the last five seasons has hit 30 homers with 100 RBI, 100 runs and 10 steals. McCutchen could blow up and is a wonderful 4th OF, better than a few teams #2 option, and don’t believe the Hart will be platooned talk out of Milwaukee, it ain’t gonna happen. DeJesus is boring but a fine 6th outfielder, and though Jennings has little value at this point, he could be a beast on the base paths if the Rays gave him a shot at playing time.

SP: I normally never take a starter early, but when Sabathia was still there at pick 45 – his ADP is 29 – I thought it was a nice value play. Shields and Weaver are steady, and Sanchez, well, I have high hopes for that kid which you can read about at Taking Sides – Starters. Harang and Myers may not be exciting, but if every breaks right I could get 300 Ks and an ERA below 4.00 from the duo – really.

RP: If you have ever seen a better group of bullpen arms assembled on one team, I would be flabbergasted. If all of these arms are healthy, the unit could sport a K/9 rate of about 10, a massive mark. Lidge is certainly an open question at the start of the year, but I handcuffed that selection by taking Madson who should fill in until Lidge is healthy. Perez will get some saves with Kerry Wood out, Dotel appears locked in the 9th for the Pirates, Thornton may be the best middle reliever in baseball, and you watch Joba dominate in the pen.

This team has some electric arms, a few grizzled vets on offense, and a boat load of talented youngsters. Who knows how the team will end up at the season’s conclusion, but I really love the mix at this point.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: March 15, 2010

(1) Is the 27 year old breakout season a reality or a myth? See below for links.

(2) Which 1B/2B/3B are being undervalued in fantasy leagues? See below for links.

(3) Yovani Gallardo looked really good on Monday dominating the Indians.

(4) Brian Roberts gets epidural for injured back.

(5) Kerry Wood shut down with back woes.

(6) Joe Nathan to throw on Saturday, test elbow.

(7) Octavio Dotel improving, should pitch in game this week.

(8) Mark Reynolds becomes a rich man in desert.

27-Year-Olds: Hitters.

27-Year-Olds: Pitchers.

Taking Sides: First Base.

Taking Sides: Second Base.

Taking Sides: Third Base.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Feb 25, 2010

(1) Carl Crawford is no longer negotiating with Rays meaning this is almost assuredly his last season with the club.

(2) Octavio Dotel and Joel Hanrahan receive positive news in regards to their injuries

(3) Adam Dunn working on defense at 1B for Nationals.

(4) Alfonso Soriano reporting that his knee is improving.

(5) Brad Lidge throwing – showing improvement. Still hopes to make opening day.

(6) Francisco Liriano has Twins excited with the return of his “stuff.”

(7) Jose Batista to bat leadoff for Blue Jays – uh oh.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Spring Training Begins

(1) Eric Gagne to sign with Rockies?
*After this video was made, Gagne signed with the Dodgers on a minor league deal.

(2) Ted Lilly having knee issues.

(3) Brad Lidge struggles due to tipping pitches?

(4) Blue Jays arms on the mend – Dustin McGowan, Jesse Litsch, Shaun Marcum.

(5) Brian Roberts dealing with back spasms.

(6) Wade Davis – no IP limit with Rays?

(7) Cliff Lee’s foot progressing well. Should throw next week.

(8) Joel Hanrahan having elbow issues. May need surgery.

By Ray Flowers