Player Profile: Josh Beckett

Josh Beckett is a big game pitcher. We all know that. But being able to summon his skills for a game here or there in October isn’t going to make him a worthy fantasy addition in 2013 is it? Will the move back to the NL to pitch for the Dodgers make him what he once was – a viable option on the hill in mixed leagues, a season after going 7-14 with a 4.65 ERA? Let’s investigate.

Dodger Stadium is a good place to pitch, always has been. Petco Park in San Diego, and AT & T Park in San Francisco, are also good places to pitch. That’s a solid foundation for Beckett, if the skills are still there. Are they?

Beckett has done the old Alex Rios, the up and down effort thing, in the ERA column. Look at his yearly marks since 2005:

3.37
5.10
3.27
4.03
3.86
5.87
2.89
4.65

Can’t explain that, it’s just the way it is.

His WHIP? From 2007-09 it was 1.14, 1.19 and 1.19. It then exploded in 2010 up to 1.54. He knocked it back down to 1.03 in 2011 before seeing it rise to 1.33 last season.

Let me take a step back for a moment. Did you notice that Beckett had a 2.89 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 2011? Two years ago he was an elite performer folks. Has the 32 year old lost it overnight? I find that hard to believe, don’t you?

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Lat season was the first time since 2006 that Beckett failed to strike out eight batters per nine innings as the mark fell to 6.97. That’s a concern. His fastball lost about two mph from his normal heater at 91.4 mph (career 93.7). Is that a blip on the radar or his new level? That’s a fair question to ask. It would seem that Beckett realized what was going on as he threw his fastball only 48 percent of the time, the first time that mark had ever dipped under 50 percent. It also marked a fourth straight season of a decline in the percentage of times he hucks the heater. He’s upped his use of the cutter in recent seasons moving from 15, to 18 to 21 percent the past three years. Are batters falling for it? Yes, they are. His 32.3 percent mark in pitches swung at by batters outside of the strike zone in 2012 was the second highest mark of his career. Batters also swung at 69.1 percent of the pitches he tossed up there in the strike zone, the highest that mark has been since 2004. That’s an odd coupling. However, given his 8.5 percent mark on swing and misses on strikes, he’d been in the 8′s in five of the previous six seasons, would seem to suggest that his “stuff” was still OK.

However, Beckett seems to be nibbling more than ever. His 43.3 percent mark in pitches thrown inside the strike zone last season was the lowest of his career an a third straight season of a mark under 50 percent. In fact, the mark has gone down 4-straight years, and no one likes to see that (what I would like to see is pictures of Olivia Wilde – that is one beautiful woman no matter what scale you are using. Hypnotic eyes wouldn’t you say? How the heck did funny man Jason Sudekis get her? What does that guy have on me? OK, maybe $20 million dollars helps.). Beckett walked 2.75 batters per nine innings last year, one hundredth higher than his career mark. Seems like all the nibbling didn’t lead to any increase in the free passes he issued.

Always a homer magnet, Beckett has a career mark of 1.01 which belies a couple of whopper seasons he’s had (1.58 in 2006 and 1.41 per nine in 2010 stand out). His new home in L.A. will help that. According to Park Indices the last three years, Dodgers Stadium is just three percent above the NL average. The park shouldn’t be much of a factor in 2013.

So where does that leave us with Beckett?

It seems like Beckett will slot in as the third starter for the Dodgers behind Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke (when healthy). That’s three potentially impressive arms at the top of the rotation, and the other two should hopefully allow Beckett to relax a bit. The full-time return to the NL will also help, as well pitching in Dodger Stadium. Given the downturn that Beckett offered last year in the mph and K columns, some trepidation is warranted. On the other hand he is a year removed from dominating batters, is only 32 years old, and would seem to profile as an arm that is going much later than he should in many drafts. In a standard mixed league how could you not be interested in a guy with the pedigree of Beckett as your 5th starter (see the ADP information)?

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Movies, TV, Hotties & Baseball

I had an odd weekend. There was less booze than I anticipated. There was less fun than I anticipated. There was about the level of worry on Sunday for fantasy football as I expected (I’m in too many leagues to worry about certain plays or players in Week 1). There was a great novel (The Bourne Supremacy by Robert Ludlum, who by the way was one hell of an author. If you’ve seen the movies with Matt Damon it’s still worth your time to read Ludlum’s three novels as they have little to do, in plot at least, with the Hollywood films). At least there was plenty going on in the world of baseball to hold my attention.

Curtis Granderson has socked 35 homers for the Yankees this year on his way to 86 RBIs and a .235 batting average after his five RBI effort Sunday (he’s also scored 85 times). Still, he’s looked an awful lot like Adam Dunn with his all or nothing approach. Over his last 53 games, that’s a third of a season, Granderson has hit .213 (Dunn is hitting .208 on the year for the White Sox with 38 homers, 88 RBIs and 79 runs scored). The counting stats are great, but that’s an awfully high price to pay in the batting average category.

Nick Markakis will have surgery on his broken left thumb Tuesday. The Orioles are hopeful that they will make the playoffs and hang around long enough for us to see Markakis again this season. Don’t count on that happening. Regardless, Nick’s regular season is over. Thanks to hitting .335 with a .390 OBP over his last 54 games Markakis will end the year with a .298 average and .363 OBP, numbers nearly identical to his career marks (.295 and .365). He’s not an elite fantasy option, but he’s solid an about as consistent as they come.

I watched The Change Up this past week, a stupid film in which Jason Bateman and Ryan Reynolds party, pee in a fountain while drunk, and miraculously change bodies (apparently the fact that they made a “wish” while urinating in the fountain caused the goddess statue in the fountain to grant them their drunk wish – to live the others life. I told you it was a stupid movie). Why the hell would I bring this clunker up? Olivia Wilde. She is, simply put, gorgeous. If you look into those eyes and don’t feel a tingle, you aren’t a lover of women.

Mike Napoli is ready to rock as his quadriceps muscle is finally strong enough for him to go out and perform in game action. He’ll begin his rehab assignment at Double-A Frisco Tuesday. A big time disappointment after being a top-3 catcher selection in nearly every league this year, Napoli has hit just .233 with 17 homers and 40 RBIs this season, light year from the pace that saw him net a .320 average, 30 homers, and 75 RBIs in 2011. Still, Let’s compare his 2010 effort in 453 at-bats, to the pace that his effort this season would net him in 453 at-bats (he actually has 301 this season).

2010: .238-26-68-60 with a .784 OPS
2012: .223-26-60- 68 with a .771 OPS

I don’t see any difference at all there, do you?

Alexei Ramirez was scratched from the White Sox lineup Sunday since he showed up late to the ballpark (maybe he was watching Olivia Wilde in something?). When he has made it to the field on time Alexei has been fairly productive in the second half hitting .284 with a .771 OPS, numbers that are very similar to the .278 and .733 career marks that he owns. With one more homer he will also post his 5th straight 10 homer season, and it will also be his 4th 10/10 season in five years (he stole only seven bags last year or he would have pulled off the double/double in all five of his big league seasons).

If you like spy shows, comedy, cartoons, hell if you have any taste, you have to check out Archer on FX if you haven’t already. It’s flippin awesome — and I hate that word, but it truly fits.

B.J. Upton is trying to put the slow start he had to the season behind him. The elder Upton bashed three long balls Sunday giving him six homers in his last 11 games. His overall numbers include a mere .256 batting average, but he’s driven in 66 runs, has scored 65 times, and has gone 20/20 yet again (21 homers, 29 SBs). This is the third 20/20 effort of his career, the second in a row, and with one more steal he’ll also have 5-straight efforts of at least 30 thefts. He’s a ballplayer that brings everything in the fantasy game, other than batting average of course.

By Ray Flowers