MLB Grab Bag

The MLB Grab Bag is in full effect today. I’m going to meander around the world of baseball today, and I might even through in some none baseball stuff too.

I keep getting questions about Jose Bautista. Let me state it again – he has zero chance of repeating his 2010 effort. Obviously he will regress, the question is how much? I’m looking at a .260-30-90 type effort – though I really hate trying to predict the actual numbers. For more on the situation give Breaking Down: Jose Bautista a few minutes of your time.

I’m still nauseated by the Alex Rodriguez, Cameron Diaz food-feeding incident from the Super Bowl. Click on A Question, A Statement, A Pukefest for a rundown of the whole scene.

AUDIO: Looking for 10 minutes of superfantastic baseball talk? If you are make sure you listen to my interview with the Davis Sports Deli where we chatted about Albert Pujols, the state of the Red Sox and Yankees, why the Royals just can’t figure it out and just how good the Rangers offense could be.

I wrote about the signings of Josh Hamilton, Jered Weaver, Shaun Marcum, Jeremy Guthrie, Luke Scott and Orlando Cabrera over in MLB News and Notes: February 11. A quick review – Its a good deal for the Rangers. Weaver is a stud. Marcum is on the verge of becoming a fantasy star. Guthrie is likely a better pitcher than you think. Luke Scott, so-so. Orlando Cabrera is nothing more than a place holder.

I can’t help it. Every time Katy Perry’s California Gurls comes on the radio I end up bobbing my head. Man, I gotta get a date.

Nick Swisher is changing from his long time agent over to the Dark Lord of the Sith – Scott Boras. I’ve got four thoughts on this matter. (1) The timing of this is odd. Swisher is under contract fort this season at $9.0 million, and he has a $10.25 million club option for next season. (2) Swisher had a strong season last year. He should be productive this season, he always is, but I don’t think he will be able to replicate some of the numbers he put up last year. For more on the outlook of Swisher for 2011 give my 2011 Player Profile: Nick Swisher a read. (3) Scott Boras is flat out amazing. (4) Speaking of the Dark Lord, did you catch the best commercial of the Super Bowl, you know, the one with the young Darth Vader discovering the power of The Force?

There’s just no way that the Cardinals and Albert Pujols don’t work out a contract extension is there? If it doesn’t happen, could he join the San Francisco Giants? I admit it, it’s a total pipe dream with less chance of becoming a reality than me finding the woman of my dreams and getting married this weekend in a wildly romantic setting overlooking the Pacific Ocean. Can’t blame a kid for dreaming though can you?

I was a great hitter but my defense was, to be kind, poor. I’m 21st all-time in OBP and 25th in SLG while my overall OPS of .974 is the 15th best mark ever posted in the history of the game. Who Am I?

Did you see the report that Edinson Volquez turned down a 4-year deal from the Reds? The dude must have some serious stones. There’s no mention in the report of how much he was offered, but here is a quote from Volquez. “They were offering me a contract for four years, the same as Johnny Cueto, but I didn’t feel it was right for me..” It’s unclear if Volquez was saying that they offered him four years like Cueto or if they offered him the same exact deal for $27 million. Either way, I’m surprised that Volquez didn’t jump on the deal unless it was a total low ball offer. Volquez will make $1.6 million this season as he bets on himself and his continued return to prominence.

By Ray Flowers

The Stange Case of Rafael Soriano

Rafael Soriano is still looking for work. There is no telling what his agent Scott Boras is asking for – my guess is that he is telling everyone that Soriano is the second best closer in baseball history behind Mariano Rivera – but the fire-balling righty is still looking for a job. Reports this week were that he would considering serving as the setup man for Rivera with the Yankees, but the Yanks quickly shot down that rumor and said they weren’t interested in dropping a ton of dough for a setup man (could that change if Andy Pettitte officially retires?). So where will Soriano end end? There aren’t too many openings to fill 9th inning roles left vacant, so perhaps Soriano will have to settle for a smaller money deal, something that seemed unlikely a few weeks back when guys like Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier were getting 3-year deals. Has Mr. Boras finally failed one of his clients? You should know better than to doubt Mr. Boras at this point.

The real reason for the reluctance of teams to shed out major dinero for Soriano must be tied to his awful record of health since he has kept many a trainer/doctor in business over the years with a plethora of arm issues constantly slowing him down. Here are his innings pitched totals since he reached the big leagues.

47.1
53.0
3.1
7.1
60.0
72.0
14.0
75.2
62.1

Let me sum that up for you. In three of last eight seasons Soriano didn’t even toss 15 innings. Would you be comfortable giving a guy like that $10 million a year? Me neither. At the same time, Soriano has tossed 60-innings in back-to-back seasons for the second time (the first was in 2006-07), though it’s not as if he has been 100 percent healthy in that time. The fact of the matter is that all pitchers are at risk with every toss, though Soriano is clearly much more likely to come down with some ailment than your average hurler.

All of Soriano’s injuries have obscured the fact that he is an absolutely dynamic pill tosser. Check out his career numbers. They are scintillating.

2.73 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.62 K/9, 3.58 K/BB, .193 BAA

You think those numbers are great? They are, but his 2010 effort made even those strong totals look average.

1.73 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 8.23 K/9, 4.07 K/BB, .163 BAA

Wow is right.

I didn’t even mention that Soriano racked up a career best 45 saves to lead the AL (he entered the year with 43 career saves). Soriano also posted the fourth best ERA in baseball for any hurler with at least 60-innings pitched while his WHIP was second (Joaquin Benoit was first at 0.68). That’s some serious dealing folks.

Someone is going to end up with one hell of a reliever. The only question is will he be able to stay healthy long enough to reward that team for their investment in his golden arm?

All Free Agent Team

I’m scheduled to visit with Jeff Rickard on Saturday around 11 AM PST on MLB Network Radio to talk free agents. We’re actually going to discuss whether or not you could put together a fantasy worthy team of players still looking to find a home for 2011 (i.e. they are free agents). Here is my all free agent fantasy team.

C: Bengie Molina
1B: Russell Branyan
2B: Adam Kennedy
3B: Jorge Cantu
SS: Orlando Cabrera
OF: Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero, Johnny Damon
DH: Jim Thome
SP: Andy Pettitte, Carl Pavano, Bruce Chen, Kevin Millwood, Freddy Garcia, Brad Penny, Chris Young
RP: Mr. Soriano of course, Brian Fuentes, Jon Rauch, Chad Qualls

It’s not exactly a powerhouse team that would win any leagues, but I’ve also seen people put together worse teams.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Blogosphere

I’m going to do something I haven’t done in a long while, and that is I’m going to link to a bunch of pieces that I think you might find interesting – similar to what we do with our Blog Roll pieces at Fanball.com and Rototimes.com. With that, here are some of the pieces that have caught my attention of late.

Offseason Moves: AL West – This piece goes over the myriad of moves by the teams in the division including the additions of Ben Sheets, Hideki Matsui, Cliff Lee and Milton Bradley. It also details two players – Chone Figgins and Vladimir Guerrero – that switched teams but stayed in the division.

Team Poll: Oakland A’s — We’ve been reviewing each team as a staff, giving our thoughts on which players are in line to break out, fail etc. The most recent piece focuses on the team from California.

Post-Hype Sleeper: Cameron Maybin — Some of the best options on draft day are those youngsters that didn’t quite live up to the hype in their first go round. Cameron Maybin just might fit that outlook provided that his operated on shoulder is healthy.

On Nathan and Broxton — Ted Carlson does a great job in discussing just what it means to be an effective reliever year after year. Here’s a shock – it’s a lot harder than you might think.

Updated Top 10s — Interested in what one of the best minds in the business thinks about who the top-10 players are at each position. I know what you’re thinking oo, and I’m not referring to myself here.

5 Questions: Chicago Cubs — Our Cardinals blogger has begun his look around the NL Central by starting with the team most figure will represent the biggest roadblock to the playoffs for the team from St. Louis.

Breaking Down: Cabrera/Garko/Gross – I hate to toot my own horn, but you didn’t think I wouldn’t being the braggart I am did you? Per the title, I break down the recent signings of Orlando Cabrera (Reds), Ryan Garko (Mariners) and Gabe Gross (Athletics).

Pick an Ace, Any Ace – How does the Angels’ rotation of Scott Kazmir, Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana and Joel Pineiro look to our intrepid Angels writer?

Player Profile: Mark Teahen — The White Sox are truly counting on one of their offseason acquisitions, infielder/outfielder Mark Teahen. He’s never really been a difference maker, but hopes are high that he might finally reach that status in 2010.

Monday Notes on the Rangers — Which players are in the news for the team from the south?

Diamondback Non-Roster Players — The D’backs are bringing 17 non-rostered players to spring training. Have you even heard of any of them before?

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Feb.1, 2010.

(1) Orlando Cabrera signs with Reds.
(2) Willy Taveras to A’s, then designated.
(3) Johnny Damon wants to play for Tigers?
(4) Ryan Garko signs with Mariners.
(5) Jose Reyes running sprints.
(6) Orlando Hudson still undecided – Nationals, Indians, Rockies in the mix.
(7) Joe Mauer deal all rumors at this point.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Jan.29, 2010

Which baseball players are in the news as we head toward the weekend? Glad you asked.

(1) Mike Wuertz re-signs with A’s. (2) Jermaine Dye turns down Cubs. (3) Orlando Hudson still negotiating with the Nationals – still. (4) Orlando Cabrera likely to sign with Reds or Rockies. (5) Justin Verlander talking 5-years with Tigers. (6) Eric Byrnes signs with Mariners. (7) Dustin McGowan’s shoulder doing well. (8) Johnny Damon still homeless.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Jan.28, 2010

I’ll take a look around the world of baseball in 300 seconds. (1) Fernando Tatis to return to Mets. (2) Johnny Damon no longer in Yankees plans with signing of Randy Winn? (3) Eric Byrnes will not return to Bay Area and Giants. (4) Jim Edmonds signs with Brewers at 40 years of age. (5) Pedro Martinez and Phillies still negotiating. (6) Orlando Hudson still talking to Nationals.

By Ray Flowers

Rumor Central – Turkey Style

Now that I’ve worked through my turkey induced coma (not that I’m complaining mind you), I thought it would be wise to take a look around the landscape of major league baseball and give my thoughts on a few of the players who are rumored to be on the move either through trades or by signing with a new team do to their free agent status.

Orlando Cabrera: With the recent signing of other shortstops to decent sized deals, you would have to think that Cabrera is in line for at least a nice two year deal. Hell, Jack Wilson got 2-years and $10 million from the Mariners. Wilson is a fine defensive player, but he can’t hold Cabrera’s jock as an offensive weapon. Consider that Cabrera has hit at least .281 with 83 runs and 171 hits in each of his last four seasons. Wilson? He has hit .281 twice in his career, has never scored more than 82 runs and has only once eclipsed 171 hits in his nine years. How could Cabrera not get at least $10 mil armed with those facts?

Jermaine Dye: Jermaine has socked at least 27 homers with 78 or more RBI in each of the last five seasons. However, he will be 36 in January and hit a pathetic .179 with seven homers over his final 212 ABs causing a lot of teams some trepidation. Dye has attempted to rectify that feeling by offering to play first base to increase his versatility on the field, and it might be working. Rumors are swirling that he could end up in Texas or sign on the dotted with the Orioles, Giants, Mets or Braves. He still has 25 homer pop, but he might find it difficult to put up big time totals outside of the hitters’ haven that is U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago.

Roy Halladay: The biggest name on the market, every day seems to bring a new rumor (he has most often been linked to the Red Sox, Angels and Yankees – of course). What seems obvious is that the Jays are almost certain to move him and that the return will be plentiful for one of the top-5 hurlers in the game.

Matt Holliday: The top hitter on the market, Holliday appears rather content to go to the club that offers him the most loot – hardly and oddity considering that Scott Boras is his agent. He will break the bank with a flooring of $100 million merely being enough to get a conversation started.

Edwin Jackson: Coming off a career season (13-9, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP), Jackson’s name has been mentioned in a series of potential deals since the season ended. The Tigers need to cut payroll, Detroit has been especially hard hit with the economic downturn, and it looks like Jackson is their most moveable chip. It might also have something to do with his second half implosion (5.07 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, .290 BAA). Buyer beware here – we may look back on ’09 as a career best effort.

Ben Sheets: Floating out there after missing last year do to arm surgery. The Mets and Orioles appear to be the most interested in the moment, though many teams would bite at the right price (just as they would with Erik Bedard). It remains to be seen just what Sheets has left, but he posted a 3.09 ERA and a 1.15 ERA in 198.1 innings in 2008 and is one mighty intriguing option as a short-term, discounted pickup.

Marco Scutaro: Marco will not be back with the Blue Jays who seemed intent on moving on since the season concluded. To that end, they signed defensively gifted but offensively ineffective John MacDonald to a 2-year, $3 million deal. They then entered the free agent market and picked up Alex Gonzalez on a 1-year, $2.75 million deal. Gonzalez is also a fine defensive shortstop, and though he has some pop and offers more offense than MacDonald, he hit only .238 with 41 RBI for the Red Sox and Reds last season. I have no idea what Scutaro will eventually sign for, but seems to me that the Blue Jays could have offered him $4.25 a year (what they paid to the other two) on a multi year deal and had a chance to bring back a guy who, in the very least, will dwarf the others in his ability to get on base (he had a .379 OBP last year).

Billy Wagner: It looks like multiple teams are throwing their hats into the Wagner sweepstakes. This is hardly a shock given his track record and success last season when he returned from Tommy John surgery to post a 1.72 ERA while racking up 26 punchouts in a mere 15.2 innings. He could end up as a dominating setup man or a 1-year closer depending on who he signs with. The 38 year old still deserves serious consideration on draft day.

By Ray Flowers

Thursday Has a Feel

Thursday is an odd day. It’s the middle of the week and it certainly has a palpable feel to it as the anticipation of the potential fun of the weekend starts to seep into ones consciousness. Maybe that’s why I’m all over the map today.

NL Playoff Thoughts

So sad to see the Dodgers fail to advance to the World Series. Not. I said it all along – there was no way a team that was counting on guys like Randy Wolf and Vincente Padilla could make the World Series. For the sake of Philly fans hopefully my other prediction that they wouldn’t be able to win the World Series with Brad Lidge pitching the ninth won’t come true. We’ll certainly have a chance to find out.

That Shane Victorino kid is a player. Did you see that sweet stroke on that long home run he hit last night? Beautiful.

Thank goodness the offense for the Phillies is so strong, because for all his production, that Jimmy Rollins is an out making machine of epic proportions. I know he produces strong fantasy 5×5 numbers each year, but my goodness does he rack up the outs. He owns a .286 OBP in 120 plate appearances in his playoff career, and this season he posted a simply hideous .296 OBP. Since he was awarded a full-time job in 2001, Rollins leads baseball with 4,496 outs, 219 more than the next guy (Orlando Cabrera). Last time I checked getting on base and avoiding outs was the name of the game for a leadoff hitter. Averaging 109 runs per 162 games in his career, can you imagine how many runs Rollins would have scored if he merely gotten on base at a league average rate?

Random Baseball Thoughts

At least we know that The Sporting News isn’t populated by idiots as they awarded Tim Lincecum and Zack Greinke their NL and AL Pitcher of the Year awards. I expressed the same views a while back in my NL Cy Young Race and AL Cy Young Race pieces. Now we’ll have to wait and see if those that vote for the Cy Young award are as smart as TSN and myself.

Steve Phillips of ESPN was recently outed in the press for having an affair. I know we are all about 24 hour news nowadays, but really, is that any of our business? I say we leave the guy and his poor family alone.

The Mets finally got some good news after a dreadful season where seemingly everyone on their roster spent at least a night in the hospital. It’s official, the Mets actually made money off the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme, $48 million worth to be exact. Finally, some good news.

If Bobby Valentine ends up returning to the States to manage the Indians, will he bring with him his Super Mario Brothers’ disguise?

Brandon Inge, a tremendous human being who goes out of his way all the time to help pretty much any charity that contacts him, fell flat on his face in the second half this year because of a wonky knee as he hit just .186 after the All-Star game. Turns out things were worse than we thought. Both of his knees were hurt. In fact, Inge will have to undergo surgery on both knees this offseason, though he should be ready by the start of the season. This is one guy who is in your corner Mr. Inge, even if I would be extremely reluctant to place my faith in you in standard mixed leagues.

Football Thoughts

Darrius Heyward-Bey is ninth in receptions — on the Raiders. He has two receptions on the season. Another stellar draft selection by the Raiders.

My over/under on Michael Crabtree this week, his first NFL game, is 27 yards. Any takers?

Am I the only one that found it laughable that during the Patriots annihilation of the Titans over the weekend that they actually put a “countdown to the Super Bowl” clock on the television screen? It was something like 111 days. How dumb is that?

Why is there a rule that NFL teams have to share injuries with the public/press, a rule they openly flaunt? Have the Patriots ever been truthful with their list? If you think they have, guess what, I got this new fangled elixir that helps to attract hot ladies to average looking guys. How many bottles you want?

By Ray Flowers

Debate Anyone?

Today I’ll hit on a couple of options for the AL Rookie of the Year, discuss a pitcher who is slowly fading, and then discuss which of two top-flight options I would choose to hold on to for the 2010 season.

Elvis Andrus has had a wonderful season for the Rangers, but please, stop the Rookie of the Year talk. Andrus is hitting .267 with a .325 OBP, and both those numbers are below average for an AL player. Plus, he has no pop at the dish with six homer and 34 RBI, and though he plays a tough position (shortstop), his 22 errors are tied with Orlando Cabrera’s total for the worst mark in the American League. If I’m making the call, and face it they would never let me because I would actually make a rationally, cogent argument based on a foundation of data and not merely some asinine arbitrary argument that others will use, the answer is Andrew Bailey of the A’s. When Joey Devine went down with elbow surgery, and Brad Ziegler struggled, Bailey was thrust into the closers role in Oakland, and he has performed spectacularly: 6-3, 1.93 ERA, 0.91 WHIP with a 9.87 K/9 mark and 25 saves. In addition, he has blown only four chances this season, and he has been as good in the second half (1.95 ERA, 0.80 WHIP) as the first half (1.92 ERA, 0.97 WHIP). That’s good stuff my friends.

Scott Feldman gave up seven runs while recording just 10 outs against the A’s on Thursday to drop to 17-6 while seeing his ERA increase to 3.90. This is the second time in three outings that he has allowed at least six earned runs in an outing, and the second time in those three starts that he was saddled with a loss, this after seven straight victories. I’m amazed he has hung on this long. He has no strikeout potential, he pitches for the Rangers, and he owned a 4.97 ERA and 1.48 ERA in 241 innings coming into the year.

I write a piece every week entitled Taking Sides, and there was one battle I didn’t get to there that I thought I would touch on here (the basic idea is to choose which player would I prefer to have on my squad in 2010).

Matt Holliday: .312-24-104-91-14 in 554 ABs
Ryan Braun: .315-29-103-105-16 in 588 ABs

Matt Holliday was hitting .286 with 11 homers and 54 RBI in 93 games with the A’s this season, and the only thing he was doing at previous levels was stealing bases (he had 12). Flash forward a couple of months, and lo and behold Holliday is back to being a stud. In just 55 games with the Cards Holliday has 13 homer and 50 RBI basically matching his A’s totals in 38 fewer games. He has also hit a blistering .356 in the NL. Seems like St. Louis suits him. All told, He is just nine runs from his fourth straight 100 effort, and he has now gone over 100 RBI in three of four years while his .312 batting average is just six points below his career mark.

Braun is a stud in his own right. In just three seasons Braun has hit at least .285 with at least 29 homers, 97 RBI, 91 runs and 14 steals in every season. This year he has walked a career-high 56 times leading to a .384 OBP, a career best, which has helped to offset his three year low of .541 in the SLG department (still a strong mark). Oh, and don’t even think about pitching to him if you are left-handed, he simply demolishes those guys: .414/.496/.766 in 111 at-bats. That’s ripping it up. What makes him an intriguing play is the fact that he has swiped at least 14 bags in each of his three big league seasons (his rookie season was just 118 games by the way).

Whose Side?: If Holliday stays in St. Louis, he is a free agent, I would be greatly intrigued at the potential of holding on to Holliday. However, until the time that he is locked up by the Redbirds, the choice here has to be Braun who has been about as consistent as any player in baseball in his first three seasons in the show (my apologies to Albert Pujols).

By Ray Flowers

Down the Stretch: Shortstop

I was thinking about what to write about today, and a couple of stories revolving around shortstops caught my fancy so I just decided to make it a theme and stick with the position for all my comments today.

Jose Reyes took BP on Monday. Since he plays for the Mets that is about as exciting as it would be for you or I to walk out to pick the paper up in the morning to find that it was in the hand of Brooklyn Decker. I never really wanted to visit New York before.

Marco Scutaro may have played his last game because of a heel injury. There are two schools of thought as the club awaits the results of the MRI. Here is what his manager, Cito Gaston said. “I’m pretty sure that he’s probably not going to play the rest of the season.” Of course, that isn’t the way that Scutaro is looking at it. “As soon as I feel good, I’m going to play,” Scutaro said. “If it feels good, I just want to play.” The hope is that there was just scar tissue breaking loose in the heel. If that is the case, he could be back in a few days. If it’s more serious he could be looking at surgery or in the least a few weeks healing doing absolutely nothing. As a Scutaro owner, I certainly hope that he shocks everyone and returns to the field, and soon. Yes, I’m being greedy since he has set career-highs in just about every conceivable category including average (.282), homers (12), RBI (60 tied with 60 last year), runs (100), steals (14), OBP (.379) and OPS (.789). Yeah, that’s a career year folks. Think of this. Scutaro was my 30th round draft pick in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, literally the 436 player off the board and he, and as of this writing he has:

Hit for a higher average than Alexei Ramirez (.279).
Had more homers than Johnny Peralta (11).
Knocked in more runners than Stephen Drew.
Stole more bases than Orlando Cabrera (13)
Scored more runs than Jimmy Rollins (90).

Think about that the next time you throw out some inconsequently name at the end of your draft. Every pick counts, so make sure you view them that way (Scutaro was our target in the 29th round, but we figured, correctly, that he would fall back to us in round 30).

Here are the leaders at the shortstop position over the past 30 days.

AVG: Troy Tulowitzki turned around a horrible start to the season and has flashed a strong finishing kick with a .351 average over the past 30 days.
HR: Juan Uribe leads the position with seven home runs. He qualifies at second and third in most leagues and has been one hell of an option late in the year.

RBI: Uribe also leads the position with 19 RBI, in addition to pacing the position with a SLG (.652) and a OPS (1.044). Yeah, he has been scorching.

Runs: Derek Jeter scored 20 runs in his 27 games to lead the way. Rafael Furcal is second with 19 runs while Cliff Pennington has 18. By the way, Pennington is also hitting .306 with 11 RBI in his 28 games, so if he is still there on waivers, and you need some middle infield help, he is worth adding for the final two weeks.

SB: Everth Cabrera and Scutaro with six. That’s right, Scutaro produced 43 percent of his year steal total in the last 30 days.

So there it is. I’ll try to hit some of the other positions over the next couple of weeks as the season winds down because, you know me, I’ll do anything I can to avoid talking about football each day (j/k).

By Ray Flowers