Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray are ready to find out who is the best host on the Fantasy Beat! They discuss the 16 team Mixed 5×5 Head to Head League they are both in and just drafted. Justin and Trevor compare their opening day rosters to see who will have an edge entering the season.
The assumption in 2012 is that third base is a shallow position in fantasy baseball. Over at MockDraftCentral people seem to be agreeing with that line of thought as everyone is jumping in early to roster their man at the hot corner. There are nine third baseman going in the top-85 selections, and that doesn’t include Jose Bautista who would bring that number to ten (he’s listed as an outfielder though he obviously qualifies at third base). After that group there are three other third base eligible players going in picks 85-200… a vast span of time for only three third sackers to be drafted. So what’s going on at third base? Some thoughts follow.
Last year only three third base eligible performers hit .300: Michael Young (.338), Aramis Ramirez (.306) and Jose Bautista (.302).
Last year four third base eligible performers hit 30 homers: Bautista (43), Mark Reynolds (37), Adrian Beltre (32) and Evan Longoria (31).
Last year only three third base eligible performers posted 100 runs batted in: Young (106), Beltre (105) and Bautista (103).
Last year only one third base eligible player had 90 runs scored: Bautista (105).
All told, shockingly, there were three third base eligible players who hit .270 with 20 homers, 75 RBI and 75 runs scored. Those are certainly solid numbers no doubt, but only three guys were able to hit all three benchmarks (Bautista, Beltre and Ramirez)? Clearly there is a lack of stardom at the hot corner, or is there?
In 2012 injuries limited Pablo Sandoval to 117 games, David Wright to 102, Ryan Zimmerman to 101 and Alex Rodriguez to 99. What if all of those guys play 140 games in 2012? That would give us eight guys to count on (in addition to the three above players who hit all four benchmarks).
That group of seven doesn’t include Evan Longoria who is going in the top-15 in every draft this season. That’s gets us up to eight third sackers.
Kevin Youkilis appeared in only 120 games last year, but the pace he set, if he played 145 games, would equate to 21 homers, 97 RBI and 82 runs. That’s nine quality third baseman.
Mark Reynolds may only be a .225 type of hitter, but his power and run production is elite. The last three years he has hit 113 homers, the most at the position. He has 273 RBI, the third highest total at the position. He’s also scored 261 runs, second to Longoria (274) amongst third sackers. That’s 10 quality third basemen.
Brett Lawrie is going off the board as the 5th third baseman ahead of Arod. I may not think he deserves to go that high despite oodles of talent, but even if I were to knock him down the board substantially he’s still a guy who everyone could agree is worthy of a top-12 pick.
Though Michael Young hit only 11 homers last season he hit .338, knocked in 106 runners and scored 88 times. Pretty sure he belongs in the top-12 at the hot corner.
So that’s 12 third basemen that you can pretty easily turn to. If you’re in a 12 team league that means nearly everyone who comes to the dance will have a hottie to hold (and this discussion hasn’t even included guys like Miguel Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez who will be playing third base this year).
You want more love at third?
David Freese was the MVP of the world during the playoffs last year. For more on Freese see his Player Profile.
Ryan Roberts hit 19 homers, stole 18 bases and he scored 86 runs, the third highest total at the position.
Mike Moustakas, according to most observers, is a 25-90 bat waiting to happen.
Chase Headley has the potential to go 15/15 and score plenty of runs with his approach. OK, maybe that’s a stretch, but he still has talent (see his Player Profile).
I could go on and talk about former elite level prospects like Mat Gamel and Pedro Alvarez and why it makes sense to take a shot on both late in drafts this season, but I think the point has been made. While third base may be a little top heavy, I’d argue that unless you’re in a deep league that you should feel pretty confident that there are enough men who man the hot corner to go around.
By Ray Flowers
You remember back to March when I gave away all my position player rankings for free, right? For those of you who want to revisit my greatest hits, here’s where you would go to get all my rankings for hitters – 2011: BBGuys Hitter Capsules.
I’m nothing if not accountable, so I’ll review my top-10 predictions at each position as well as point out my biggest “hit” outside of the top-10 and my biggest “bust.”
2011 THIRD BASE Top-10
1 Evan Longoria
2 David Wright
3 Alex Rodriguez
4 Ryan Zimmerman
5 Aramis Ramirez
6 Mark Reynolds
7 Michael Young
8 Adrian Beltre
9 Pedro Alvarez
10 Casey McGehee
Longoria hit a terrible .244, and his steal total fell by 12 down to three, but he still powered 31 homers and drove in 99 runs thanks to a furious second half finish (20 homers and 57 RBI in 72 games). He’s plenty young enough (26) to put it all together and run off some massive seasons.
Wright had hit at least 25 homers with 100 RBI and 85 runs scored in five of the last six seasons, so his 14 homers, 61 RBI and 60 runs were obviously a massive disappointment. Thrown in a career worst .255 average, from a guy who has hit .300 in his career, and you were rightly ticked off if he was on your squad.
Rodriguez lost his record streak of 30-100 seasons at 13 as he appeared in only 99 games which limited him to 16 homers and 62 RBI. In the end it was the worst season of his career as he also scored a career worst 67 runs with another career worst in his OPS (.823).
Zimmerman appeared in only 101 games limiting him to a .289-12-49-52 line, but if we give him 550 at-bats at that pace he would have hit .289-17-68-72 which wouldn’t have been too awful given all his starts and stops. He needs to stay healthy.
Ramirez hit two homers in April and May. Two. He then blasted 17 the next two months, hit .377 in August, an in the end produced yet another terrific season for the Cubs (.306-26-93-80-1). The cream almost always rises to the top.
Reynolds always gets dogged for the terrible average (.221) and all the strikeouts (196), but he should get some credit to. He was second at the position with 37 homers (Jose Bautista had 43), and he was one of only four third baseman with 25 homers, 80 RBI and 80 runs scored and one of three with 30-80-80 (Bautista and Beltre).
Young only played 40 games at third, but at the dish he was his normal fantastic self. Young hit .338, the best mark of his career, and also posted a career best 106 RBI. Toss in 88 runs scored and he gave his owners exactly what they were hoping for and a little bit more.
Beltre was injured and appeared in only 124 games, but he still powered 32 homers, knocked in 105 and his a strong .296. He was everything the Rangers hoped he would be when they signed him.
Alvarez was an abject failure. He appeared in 74 games and, amazingly for a guy who was the second overall selection in 2008, he hit .191 with four homers in 235 at-bats. To think, many people chose him over Mark Reynolds.
McGehee wasn’t a choice I loved. In fact, I warned in The Guide that he was the only third sacker who had 85 RBI who failed to score 75 runs in 2010, and I also pointed out how his minor league track record didn’t match his offensive fireworks with the Brewers. I should have gone with my gut and ranked Pablo Sandoval, who I had 11th, ahead of McGehee.
Hit: Jhonny Peralta #14
Obviously he was more useful as a shortstop eligible player, but with all the injuries at third Peralta could have played there all year and done very well. Peralta hit 21 homers, knocked in 86 runs, scored 68 times and hit a career best .299. All-around it was a fine year, and in context of all the injuries at third, it was a top-10 effort.
Bust: Everyone
DL stints seemed a prerequisite at third this year. Here are the games played totals of some of the preseason elite: Longoria (133), Wright (102), Arod (99), Zimmerman (101) and Sandoval (117).
By Ray Flowers
(1) Leo Nunez not actually Leo Nunez?
(2) All Michael Young does is hit, hit, hit.
(3) Pablo Sandoval proving 2010 was a fluke.
(4) Can Matt Kemp actually win the NL Triple Crown?
(5) Ryan Howard ready to return from ankle injury.
(6) Matt Moore dominates the Yankees. Is he the next Stephen Strasburg?
By Ray Flowers
Over the course of the season, every player rides the wave of highs and lows. Today, I’ll high-light some of those players who are barely keeping their heads above the rising tide right now.
Marlon Byrd is batting .226 over his last 93 at-bats with just a single homer as he continues to have one of the most unique seasons in baseball this year. The recent slump has dropped Byrd’s average down down to a still respectable .284, but it’s his run production that is so fascinating. Byrd has a mere 28 RBI in 387 at-bats this season, a pace that would equate to 40 RBI over 550 at-bats. If that sounds awful it is, but it’s even more distressing when you realize that Byrd has spent 30 percent of his season batting third for the Cubs and another 34 percent batting fifth. How is it possible to spend 64 percent of your seasonal at-bats in the third and fifth holes in the lineup and still be on a pace for mere 40 RBI in 550 at-bats? That’s just shocking.
Asdrubal Cabrera has had a remarkable season. It doesn’t look like he is going to get to 20/20, he has 16 steals and last stole a base back on August 13th (yikes), but still, it’s been a rather remarkable season. Coming into the year he had hit 18 homers. He has 22 this season. He came into the year with career bests of 68 RBI and 81 runs. He has 82 RBI and is just two runs off that career best mark with three weeks left in the regular season. If you’ve have Cabrera on your roster all season long you cannot be upset at his performance, not in the least. However, that doesn’t mean you can’t be disappointed by his work over the past month. Cabrera is hitting a sickly .185 over his last 95 at-bats, and though he has knocked in 16 runs, the guy has scored only five times. He isn’t producing hits, isn’t scoring runs, and has stopped stealing bases. Do you dare go in another direction for the final three weeks of the regular season?
Chris Davis has long been my white whale. I look at the prodigious power and his outright domination of Triple-A (.340-38-146 over his last 591 at-bats), not to mention his previous success in the big leagues (38 homers, 114 RBI in his first 686 big league at-bats), and think this guy is a potential 30 homer bat. He still might be that, but he’s looking an awful lot like Carlos Pena with those 21 Ks in 50 at-bats with the Orioles. I think it might be time for me to face facts. Davis might just be a AAAA player (too good for the minors but not good enough to have success in the big leagues).
Adam Lind will be shut down for a few days with a wrist issue. He should have been left out of your fantasy lineup for a long while however. Over the last month Lind has hit five homers while knocking in 18 runs so you might be thinking ‘what the hell are you talking about Ray?’ You wanna know what I’m talking about? How about that .178 average and .575 OPS over the past month. In fact, it’s even worse than that as he has hit .186 with a .562 OPS over his last 46 games. That’s a high price to pay for a few homers.
Martin Prado just cannot get it going. He’s hitting, if you can call it that, .181 with no homers and six runs scored over his last 94 at-bats.
Pablo Sandoval is hitting a mere .247 over his last 81 at-bats to drop his season long average to .297. That’s pretty impressive given his failures last season (.268), and 18 homers in just 371 at-bats is a pretty solid number as well, but he needs to start rapping out hits to help out your fantasy squad down the stretch. OK, the truth is I’m just down on the Giants and not necessarily Sandoval. Where did it all go wrong for the club? It all went wrong when the front office thought the club had enough offense to compete. What a waste of a pitching staff.
Chris Young is hitting, sit down if you missed it, .147 over 156 at-bats since the All-Star break. He has a sprained ligament in his thumb that is the main culprit for the downturn in his production. At this point it’s almost impossible to suggest leaving him in your starting lineup unless you are in a deep NL-only league.
By Ray Flowers
Bryce Harper walks on water, saves babies from sunburn with a glance that causes the sun to recede, and never makes an out. Never. Well, at least that’s what some people seem to think. The uber-prospect, judged by many to be the best talent in baseball in the minors despite being just 18 years old, simply killed it at Single-A ball this year. He may have made some outs, in fact he made a ton, but overall he was a dynamic option hitting .318 with 14 homers, 46 RBI, 49 runs and 19 steals in just 72 games. The groundswell was that he was going to ascend all the way to the majors this season (I for one have remained steadfast in my belief that he won’t be a full-time player for the Nationals until at least June of next season. At least.). In nine games at Double-A it’s all gone wrong for Harper (he skipped High-A). It’s only been nine games so there is zero reason to panic, but he has hit .194 with two runs and two RBI’s. The game just isn’t that easy folks. Harper will figure it out in due time and start mashing again, nothing will stop him from doing that, but be realistic with the kid and his progress. Nothing happens overnight.
Jeff Keppinger was dealt from the Astros to the Giants. For my thoughts on the deal see Giants Deal for Keppinger.
Speaking of the Giants, Pablo Sandoval is out of the lineup Wednesday after tweaking his quad on Tuesday. The issue doesn’t appear to be serious, but the club is just playing it safe with their most important hitter. And hit Sandoval has done lately. Since returning from surgery on his wrist, Sandoval has appeared in 32 games. He’s had a hit in 30 of those contests on his way to racking up a .316 average. Guess what he’s hitting on the year? How about .315. For his career, four at-bats short of 1,500, Sandoval is hitting .306.
Placido Polanco will have an epidural on Thursday as he continues to waste away on the DL because of a bugling disk in his back. After being an MVP in April (.398 with 19 RBI) Polanco has resembled a washed up middle infielder who is barely hanging on hitting just .216 with 20 RBI over 57 games.
If you’re looking for a good matchup on the hill, it will be tough to beat Tim Lincecum vs. Clayton Kershaw today. Lincecum enters the day with a 2.99 ERA and 9.67 K/9 rate while Kershaw has a 2.88 ERA and 10.13 K/9 mark. There may not be a better lefty-rigthty matchup at any point this season, so watch these two NL West aces face-off today if you get the chance.
The last 28 days did you know…
Aramis Ramirez has hit 12 homers with 25 RBI and 23 runs scored. He’s been the best hitter in baseball in that time. Jose Bautista isn’t far behind with 10 homers, 20 RBI and 19 runs scored.
Emilio Bonifacio has hit .357 with 13 steals. You do know he has no chance of sustaining even 80 percent of that level of production moving forward, right?
Nick Markakis has hit .381. Moreover, the Orioles’ outfielder has hit a robust .347 over his last 41 games to raise his season long average to .293.
Curtis Granderson has hit only .240 but he leads the AL with 22 runs in that time. Granderson also has 19 walks, tied with Ben Zobrist for the most in baseball. Zobrist has a .429 OBP, Granderson .396. Both those numbers are wonderful, but amongst every day players those totals pale in comparison to the .477 mark of Yunel Escobar.
Jose Reyes has only 48 at-bats because of his leg injury, but he hasn’t picked up a single strikeout. Reyes also has an amazing .519 OBP.
Ray Flowers
(1) Jose Reyes likely out three weeks for Mets.
(2) Is Dan Uggla as bad as you think?
(3) Everyone is freaking out about Drew Stubbs – why?
(4) Who is Jeff Karstens and should you care about him?
(5) Pablo Sandoval is hot – 17-game hitting streak.
By Ray Flowers
(1) Braves plan on leaving Jason Heyward down in the batting order.
(2) Is Alex Gordon for real?
(3) Should you be worried about the velocity drop of Aroldis Chapman?
(4) Reports of Lance Berkman’s demise were greatly overrated.
(5) Carlos Pena still has pain in his right thumb from April 4th injury.
(6) Chris Young dealing with biceps tendonitis. What a shock.
(7) Pablo Sandoval continues his early season surge.
By Ray Flowers
You’re killing me.
I say that with all due respect mind you. Let me tell you what I mean.
I sit at my computer all day, every day, typing away answering emails, writing articles, researching etc. It’s a rather sad existence at times (who am I kidding, how great is it that I get to work in my slippers?). I’m used to long days, 12 hours is often the norm, so I’m not unfamiliar with onerous work schedules. So what did I mean when I led off this piece with “you’re killing me?”
Simply put, my mailbox has been flooded with requests for the FREE player capsules I’m giving away. I’m borderline ecstatic at the response I’ve received, but at the same time I’m sending so many of these files back to you, the reader, that I needed to come up with a better plan moving forward. Hence, I’m going to be combing positions in order to cut down on the emails I’ll need to send out.
In case you’ve missed it so far, here is how this all works.
(1) You stop by BaseballGuys.com – Fantasy Baseball Blog.
(2) You’ll get a chance to review a handful of the players at the position of the day.
(3) You’ll find a CODE at the end of the article.
(4) You’ll take that CODE and email it to me at: fantasyfandom@yahoo.com
(5) I’ll send you back a neat and tidy PDF file with the top-50 or so players at the position that is under discussion for that day.
How does that sound to you?
The best part?
How about the cost… it’s 100% FREE.
All I ask is that you tell a friend.
FIRST BASE / THIRD BASE
Again, to lighten the workload a bit, I figured I would combine corner infielders (1B, 3B) today.
Here are a few examples of what you will receive in the PDF.
Derrek Lee
When healthy he has rarely been great but he is almost always very good. In each of his last 10 healthy seasons he has hit at least 19 homers with 70 runs and 70 RBI. Those numbers don’t sound exciting, but since 2000 his total of 10 such seasons leads all first basemen. Age is catching up with him, and he never runs anymore, but he is a safe option if you don’t reach.
Aubrey Huff
Huff and the Rally Thong helped lead the Giants to the World Series, and they’ll both be back for two more years in San Francisco. One of only four first basemen to hit .290 with 25 homers, 85 RBI and 100 runs, Huff rebounded from a disastrous 2009 to post his 7th 20-homer season and his 6th season of 85 RBI. If you pay for a repeat you should be on fairly solid ground.
Pablo Sandoval
Thinking the way to major league success was paved with pizza and profiteroles, Sandoval’s weight was/is a major issue. The Giants have put Pablo on notice that if he can’t see his toes, he could be sent to the minors. Just a year removed from an all-star caliber season, Sandoval would benefit from a more patient approach. Can weight loss help that?
The Corner Infielder code is: Plentiful Power
One last thing. For those of you looking for some baseball talk, you can click on this link to the DSD Podcast. I talked with Aaron and Karter about Adam Wainwright, Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera and other topics around major league baseball.
By Ray Flowers
Tejada to Giants
The San Francisco Giants wasted no time replacing the departed Juan Uribe who signed with the Dodgers (Californian’s on the Move) by inking Miguel Tejada to a 1-year deal for $6.5 million. So let me see if I have this right. The Giants said adios to Uribe when the Dodgers offered him $7 million a season, for three years mind you, and then went out and signed Tejada for two years less and with a savings of $500,000 in 2011. That seems like a pretty good trade off to me. Let’s take a look at the production of each player in 2010.
Tejada: .269-15-71-71-2 with 26 doubles, .312 OBP, .381 SLG
Uribe: .248-24-85-64-1 with 24 doubles, .310 OBP, .440 SLG
No one will argue that Uribe has more pop, or that he is a better defender at this stage of each players careers, but those numbers are still pretty darn close are they not? Given the financial investment that was given to both players, you have to say that the Giants came out ahead if for no other reason than they didn’t have to agree to a contract that was for three years.
Let’s take a deeper look at the 2011 outlook for Tejada.
No longer the MVP level player he once was, Tejada still has some success at the dish. Largely because of the fact that he simply is never hurt – he has appeared in at least 156 games in 11 of the last 12 seasons – Tejada has managed to record at least 13 homers, 66 RBI and 71 runs scored in each of those 12 seasons. Those numbers certainly don’t excite as much as having plans on a Friday night with a lady friend, but they are still noteworthy because Tejada is the only shortstop in baseball who has reached them each of the past 12 years. Moreover, he is one of only three players, regardless of position, with a 12-year stretch of 13-66-71. The other two players in the group are Bobby Abreu and Alex Rodriguez. That level of production makes Tejada a strong NL-only option, but he is more of a middle infield option in mixed leagues (don’t forget that Miguel qualifies at both short – 58 games – and third base – 97 games – in 2011).
The downside though is always present with Tejada, especially as he enters his late 30′s.
(1) He will be 37 years old in late May, and that fact, combined with years of heavy work, leave his defensive acumen in some serious doubt. He is nothing more than an average option at short – that is being kind – and is clearly better suited to play third base at this stage of his career.
(2) He hasn’t hit more than 18 homers since 2006 and in each of the past three seasons his HR/F ratio has been under 8.3 percent, a disappointing total for a player who owns a career mark of 12.6 percent. The fact is that Tejada isn’t going to go deep 20 times in 2011, especially hitting in San Francisco. He has been remarkably consistent though in his ground ball to fly ball ratio which has been between 1.52 and 1.69 the past four years, so one would think he still has a shot at 15 dingers.
(3) He is an extremely impatient hitter. While his .339 career OBP is merely average and honestly a poor number for a player of his skill level, he has been even worse in two of the last three seasons (.314, .340 and .312). When you have middling power and no stolen base speed, it certainly would be advisable to work the count at least a bit. Alas, that just isn’t in the cards with Tejada. On the plus side he does make excellent contact with a career K-rate of less than 13 percent. In addition, his K-rate has been less than 11.5 percent in each of the past four seasons. His bat might be slowing with age, but he still isn’t striking out.
In the end, the Giants did well to add Tejada at a cost that makes more sense than what the Dodgers paid to Juan Uribe. As a Giants fans I wish they would have made a move to bring in Jason Bartlett to play short, but given the relatively minor investment that they made in Tejada I’m not against this deal, that is until an 18 hop ground ball works its way through the left side of the Giants’ infield between Tejada and Pablo Sandoval.
By Ray Flowers
The FSWA winner of the Best Baseball Series of 2011, BaseballGuys.com is the only source you will need for your fantasy baseball knowledge. OK, you might need other sources, but BaseballGuys.com should be on your daily list of must reads for the insights an analysis it provides on the world of baseball.
The co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87: M-F at 5-8 PM EDT), Ray has spent years squirreled away studying the inner workings of the fantasy game to the detriment of his personal life. Specializing in baseball, football and hockey, some consider him an expert in all three. Ray's work can also be found as feature writer for: Fantasy Alarm, Rotoinfo, Rotowire and Sports Illustrated.
You can contact Ray through e-mail at fantasyfandom@yahoo(dot)com or on Twitter.
