Player Profile: Edinson Volquez

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…” That’s a quote from A Tale of Two Cities by Charles Dickens. It’s not exactly applicable to Edinson Volquez the last two years but it’s a strong point that I can use for illustrative purposes. Coming off the worst season of his career (5-7, 5.71 ERA, 1.57 WHIP an a PED suspension), Volquez rebounded for a solid campaign in his first year with the Padres last year giving hope that perhaps a return to his former glory could be in the offing (it wasn’t the “best of times” though as Volquez best season was 2008 when he went 17-8 with a 3.21 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 206 Ks in 196 IP).

For his career, this is what we know with Volquez.

(1) He throws hard. His average fastball has traveled at least 93.6 mph in every one of his eight seasons.

(2) His heater allows him to strike a lot of batters out. For his career he’s punched out 653 batters in 679.2 innings, a rate of 8.65 K’s per nine innings. Since his career began in 2005 he ranks 12th among pitchers in K/9 (minimum 675 IP). That’s pretty impressive, no?

(3) He often has no control over his heater. I’m talking that you could crouch behind home plate without a glove and not have to worry about getting hit by a pitch at times. For his career his 4.93 BB/9 is atrocious and only worsened by the fact that he’s actually pulled off an amazing feat – he’s walked at least five batters per nine innings each of the past four years. Among hurlers who have thrown 675 innings since the start of 2005 he is the fourth worst hurler at throwing strikes. Here is the trio of deadbeat arms who have been worse in the BB/9 column: Oliver Perez (5.34), Daniel Cabrera (5.21) and Jonathan Sanchez (5.00). It’s pretty amazing that he’s continued to regularly get the ball given his lack of strike throwing, but just like the others on the list, managers see the talent and the dominating stuff and are willing to overlook some of the deficiencies at times.

(4) He’s displayed a very intriguing trend of increasing ground ball rates. When a player does this once, you take note. When he does it twice you’re intrigued. When he does it three times… sign me up. Volquez had never posted a ground ball rate over 46.3 percent his first five seasons in the big leagues, but the last three years that number has been 50.6 percent or higher. As a result of all those ground balls Volquez has posted a GB/FB ratio of 1.75, 1.75 and 1.79 the past three seasons. As I continue note, a player who generates strikeouts and ground outs is the number one arm type to target on draft day, and it’s also the type of arm that teams try to build their pitching staffs around (now you know why teams continually give Volquez the ball despite all the walks). To that end, have you ever watched Volquez pitch? There are times where batters simply have no chance to put the barrel on the ball. None. There are times where his fastball is darting and diving so much that he has no idea where it is going, the batter has no idea, and neither does the catcher. However, when he’s “locked in” batters have no chance. Unfortunately, he has trouble staying locked in for six consecutive innings so there is always some point in every start he makes where it could go horribly wrong for him.

In a vacuum there is an awful lot to like here. In addition to the strikeouts and the grounders, Volquez pitches his home games in Petco Park in San Diego. When he does make a mistake up in the zone he’s more than likely going to be able to avoid allowing a long ball because his ball yard isn’t going to hurt him (even with the fences being moved in a bit this season). He also pitches in the NL West where parks in San Francisco and Los Angeles are also pitcher friendly. Everything would be peachy if not for his propensity to dish out free passes. Given a run of 4-straight years of at least five walks per nine innings there really is no hope for a change. As crazy as it sounds, if he were to to walk “only” 4.05 batters per nine, a full batter above the league average in 2012, his prospects would improve greatly. Alas, you can’t expect that to happen so Volquez remains a highly intriguing reserve round add that you just hope somehow locks it in for the duration of a season, however unlikely such a prospect might be.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Chase Headley

Since we all know I’m full of myself, let me do what just such a person is want to do and quote myself (from the article Fanball & Sirius Show League). “My boy Chase Headley, taken in the 20th round, was fantabulistic (.286-31-115-95-17). Given his draft day cost, he was one of the 10 best players in fantasy baseball this year.” How do you like them apples? The problem with Headley is that what he accomplished in 2012 was so far out of the norm for him that it’s exceedingly difficult to think that he as any chance of fully repeating that effort in 2013.

Headley’s most obvious step forward was in the homer category. Headley had never hit more than 12 homers in a season, and from 2009-11 he hit a total of 27 home runs. How in the world did he go deep 31 times last season? Great question. The first thing I do when witnessing such a massive step is to check a guys HR/F ratio. It’s damn telling in this situation. Headley posted a 21.4 percent mark, the 10th best mark in baseball. Tenth. Remember, the guy hit more homers in 2012 than he hit the previous three years – combined. As you hopefully get without me having to tell you, something is fishy here. Traditionally, analysts look at rolling three years periods to help get a feel for something like a players HR/F ratio. Let’s look at his marks from 2009-11: 7.6, 6.4 and 4.3 percent. Add those three numbers together and you get 18.3 percent. That’s lower than his 2012 mark. The fact is that there is no way anyone could have predicted his HR/F explosion last year. There is also no way that any rational person can think he will repeat that total in 2013. This situation brings back memories of Joe Mauer. You remember when Mauer hit 28 homers in 2009 after hitting 29 homers the previous three years? Do you remember how I predicted that his homer total would fall back to single digits (I was mercifully called an idiot for that claim)? What happened the following season for Mauer? He regressed to nine homers. Just take a look at the HR/F ratios of Mauer from 2006-10: 10.8, 7.2, 6.5, 20.4, 6.7 percent. I’m going to predict that Headley follows a similar path with his his HR/F ratio, that it will likely be cut in half in 2013 from his 2012 level. If that happens Headley will have a hard time hitting 20 homers. Why? Lost amidst all the homers is the fact that he was about to more than double his previous career best homer total despite a career low fly ball rate of 32.1 percent. In fact, his fly ball rate has gone down each of the past three years (38.3, 36.0, 32.3 and 32.1 percent). Doom is in the forecast here.

Let’s look at his GB/FB ratio. Here are his yearly totals: 0.83, 1.04, 1.18, 1.28, 1.42 and 1.51. You don’t have to be a math major to understand that trend. Every year of his career his percentage of ground balls has risen. That’s not, as already mentioned, going to allow him to hit 30 homers again though it might help him to hit .285 again (a number he has reached each of the past two seasons). Headley also posted a 12.3 percent walk rate in 2012, and that should help him limit the walks a bit, though he also had a four year high with his K-rate so his 0.55 BB/K ratio wasn’t a very strong mark. Headley still has a posted an OBP in the .370′s the past two years, and that’s a strong number in today’s game.

It’s also pretty darn difficult to think that Headley will knock in 115 runs again while scoring 95 runs of his own. Looking at the RBIs, how did he get to such a huge number when he hit only .274 with RISP and .203 with RISP and 2 outs? The Padres, after all, were 23rd in runs scored in 2012. Can you say opportunistic hitting? The data simply doesn’t support a repeat of either number (and moving the fences in at Petco a few feet doesn’t figure to have a huge effect).

The steals? I’ll give Headley kudos there. His ability to swipe a base – he’s been in double-digits the past four years and has swiped 17 in two of the past three years – has always propped up the value of Headley in the fantasy game.

After years of being undervalued the pendulum has swung with Chase. He’ll now be taken too early on draft day after what was very likely to be his career best effort. Here’s a definitive statement: Headley will not replicate his homer, RBI or runs scored marks in 2013. The average and steals are repeatable, but if he gives you 75% of his last seasons production in the other categories we’d be talking 23 homers, 86 RBIs and 71 RBIs. All of those numbers were still be career best efforts prior to last season. Headley could end the year as a top-10 third baseman but your setting yourself up for major disappointment if you are thinking a top-5 finish is in the cards.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Clayton Richard

The last two healthy seasons for Clayton Richard have led to 28 wins with 14 in each season (2010, 2012). Richard has also posted an ERA under 4.00 each of the past three years. He’s coming off a season with a career-high in innings pitched (218.2) and a career best WHIP (1.23). That certainly sounds like enough to vault Richard up anyone’s rankings when considering how to evaluate rank pitchers for the 2013 season. So why is there so much trepidation when the name of Clayton Richard is brought up in fantasy circles?

Let’s begin by looking at what Richard does well. His chief skill is his ability to induce grounders and to keep the ball off the fat part of the bat. For his career Richards has an 18.9 line drive rate which is on the low side of average. Over the past four seasons that number has never reached 20 percent so he’s consistently been average or slightly better than that. Richard has also induced grounder after grounder. In his career his GB-rate is 49.8 percent, and the last two seasons that number has been over 50 percent including a career best 54 percent mark in 2012. Obviously with this type of batted ball distribution on his resume his GB/FB ratio is going to be good, and it is. For his career the mark is 1.60 and last seasons 1.93 GB/FB ratio was the 7th best mark in the National League. That’s pretty impressive work.

At this point the other skill that Richard has, an I would bet you that 95 percent of the people reading this already know what I’m going to type next, is Petco Park. Obviously that’s not a “skill” but you get the point. The fact is that Petco is a hard place to drive the ball, an a pitcher like Richard who keeps the ball on the ground is going to have a ton of success in a yard that will help to cover up mistakes he makes up in the zone. Now that wasn’t exactly true in 2012 as his HR/9 mark swelled to 1.28, a career worst, but you can blame that on a 50 percent increase in his HR/FB ratio from 10 percent (career) to 15 percent last season. That number should normalize in 2013 by the way. It is also true that the majority of that homer damage was done on the road (1.44 per nine) versus at home in San Diego (1.03 per nine). Moreover, Richard continued his relative domination at Petco continuing the trend that makes him, at worst, an excellent streaming option when he pitches at home.

2010 (home): 3.15 ERA, 1.22 WHIP in 17 starts
2011 (home): 2.30 ERA, 1.11 WHIP in eight starts
2012 (home): 3.02 ERA, 1.10 WHIP in 14 starts

For his career Richard has made 45 starts at Petco Park. He’s won 19 of those games posting a 2.82 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. For some perspective on those numbers the third place finisher in the NL Cy Young Voting, Gio Gonzalez, finished the 2012 season with a 2.89 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. The fact is that Richard is actually a must start, no matter what the format, when he starts at home. Of course, the flip side is that he isn’t exactly the best road starter in the world, an in fact his career numbers are on the road are painful to look at: 23-23, 4.92 ERA, 1.53 WHIP in 382.2 innings. Hello Rick Porcello.

So, I can sum up this piece before I finish it with some of the simplest advice I have ever given. You’re crazy if you don’t start Richard at home. You’re crazy if you start him on the road. How is that for some insightful analysis?

Before leaving you for the day, a quick review of the rest of the things you need to know with Richard.

His strikeout rate is deplorable. The last two years he hasn’t even punched out five batters per nine innings and his career mark if 5.69, around two batters below the league average. The lack of punchouts severely dims his fantasy outlook. On the plus side he did something last year that he had never done as well before – he threw strike after strike. For his career he’s walked just slightly more than three batters per nine innings. Last season he dropped that mark down to 1.73 walks per nine, literally half of his total from 2010-11 (the mark was 3.46 in those two seasons). We certainly need more than just one season at that level to say he’s now that pitcher, but it’s an extremely heartening development for a guy whose perfect game would be 27 pitches with all 27 outs generated on ground balls.

Richard is nothing exciting to look at, and he comes with severe limitations, but that doesn’t mean you can’t reap a substantial return on your investment with him if you deploy him properly.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Chase Headley

Chase Headley has always had a fan at BaseballGuys.com. If you purchased a copy of the 2011 BBGuys’ Draft Guide, and if you didn’t shame on you, you will recall my words of encouragement about Headley (this years Draft Guide will likely drop at the end of January or early February for those of you itching to get it in your hands). Headley didn’t live up to expectations in terms of his fantasy output in 2011, but that doesn’t mean that he didn’t show some growth. Read on for my explanation of what I’m talking about an if there is enough here to make him someone to target in 2012 (I broke down his new teammate, Carlos Quentin, in this Player Profile).

Headley will have corner infield value in mixed leagues because he isn’t afraid to steal a bag. Each of the past three years he has stolen at least 10 bags, and his three year average is a cool 13 thefts a season, the same total he posted last year. Amongst third base eligible players only Eduardo Nunez (22), Ryan Roberts (18) and Mike Aviles (14) had more last season. Don’t misinterpret what I’m saying – I’m not saying Headley is some base stealing marvel, but he does steal a fair amount of bags relative to others at the third base position.

Headley hit a career best .289 last season, better than the marks posted by Placido Polanco (.277), Chipper Jones (.275), Martin Prado (.260), Kevin Youkilis (.258) and Roberts (.249). That certainly helped to boost Headley’s value in the fantasy game. While OBP isn’t counted in the majority of leagues, Headley was also a strong performer there. Headley’s .374 OBP was the highest mark of any third baseman in the National League (minimum 400 plate appearances). He can thank the fact that he pushed his walk rate to a career best level (11.8 percent), two percentage points above his career rate. He still struck out 21 percent of the time, but the result was a 0.57 BB/K mark, the best of his career. As you can see, Headley produced a strong average and got on base at a great clip in 2011 compared to other third sackers – and there is value in that.

There’s a pink elephant in the room though, and the number on that tutu is four, as in the homer total of Headley in 2011. As a third baseman, Headley would have to be performing at an Ichiro-like level to overcome a mere four homers, and clearly Headley didn’t so his fantasy value was sunk last season. We can partly blame the fact that injury limited him to just 113 games, but that’s like using a band aid for a broken leg. The fact is that Headley has never learned how to lift the ball. He raps out extra base hits, he’s averaged 29 doubles the last three years, an as we’ve see he produces hits, but he doesn’t hit the ball in the air. Chase’s fly ball rate has regressed the past two years, down from 38.3 percent to 36.0 and 32.3 percent, which is well below the big league average of about 37 percent. So he doesn’t hit enough fly balls to be a big time home run hitter. Second, his HR/F ratio is just 7.0 percent for his career, and the last two years he’s failed to reach 6.5 percent. You can certainly blame him for that, but his home ball yard in San Diego also isn’t doing him any favors. Petco was 12th out of 16 NL stadiums last year according to the HR Park Idicies, and the past three years Petco is 15th in the NL. If Headley were to move out of San Diego a run to 15 homers seems reasonable, though that’s still nothing to get overly excited about when we’re talking about a third baseman hitting 15 homers.

The best thing that could happen to Chase would be for him to be dealt to another club. He seemingly profiles very well as a #2 hitter, but he might be best suited as a 6th or 7th place hitter on a strong team. If he was allowed to spend his home games in an offensive leaning park a 15 homer, 15 steal season could be possible. Toss in a .280-ish batting average and then we’d be talking. However, if he isn’t dealt out of San Diego, Headley would likely be best served as a solid third base option in NL-only leagues. Headley might still produce enough to be a solid corner infield option in deep mixed leagues, after all his career bests would lead to a .289-12-65-77-17 fantasy line, but he’s more of a speculative play in that format.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Carlos Quentin

Carlos Quentin is a bit of an enigma. He possesses a nice power bat (4-straight 20 homer seasons), strikes out less than other top level sluggers (just a 15.9 percent K-rate), but never seems to be able to put it together because of one injury after another. Tired of the ups and downs, and looking to go with youth, the White Sox dealt Quentin to the Padres for pitchers Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez (neither arm is an elite level prospect). Can the California born Quentin, who was a 3-sport performer at University of San Diego High, be the middle of the order bat that the Padres need?

Quentin’s main bugaboo is ill health. He’s been a “full-time” player for four years, but he’s never appeared in more than 131 games (don’t forget that includes the ability to function as a DH). As a result, he’s averaged a mere 426 at-bats over those four seasons. Obviously the fact that Quentin has been unable to stay on the field consistently is a major concern if you are planning on Quentin being a centerpiece of your fantasy squad in 2012.

The second major issue with Quentin is the fact that, despite having ample power, that he’s going from one of the best homer hitting havens in the game to one of the worst. “He’s got huge power, so he has hit a good number of homers to right, right-center,” GM Josh Byrnes said. “It’s a tall order for any player in Petco, but from center to the left-field foul pole, they’re gone in any park.” That might be so, but let’s not gloss over the facts here Josh. According to Park Indices, Petco comes in at 8th in the NL for right-handed hitters during the 2011 season, an over the past three years that ranking is also 8th. While that might be better than you thought given Petco’s reputation, it was still two percent below the league average the last three years while U.S. Cellular Field, Quentin’s old home, was 38 percent better than the American League average. That’s a massive difference and is should give you pause with Quentin.

The third issue with Quentin is that, honestly, he’s just not that good of a hitter. Quentin has a career batting average of .252. Moreover, he’s hit better than .254 in just one of his six big league seasons. That number doesn’t figure to improve in the NL playing half his games at Petco.

The fourth issue for Quentin is that he has no base stealing speed. Only once has he stolen as many as four bags, and he’s swiped just 16 bags in his career (616 games).

So what do we have with Quentin? Let’s review.

He has shown a propensity to be injured.
He’ll play half his games in a pitcher’s park.
He’s a below average big league hitter in terms of batting average.
He has no stolen base speed.

I’m not suggesting that Quentin has no value. Quentin has hit at least 20 homers in 4-straight seasons with a career best of 36 in 2008, and per 500 at-bats in his career he’s averaged 29 homers and 91 RBI. Remember though Quentin has never, not once, had 500 at-bats in a season. He’s also produced those numbers in the offensive environments of the the desert (the Diamondbacks) and the Windy City (the White Sox). Given his limitations, his home ball yard, and his record of ending up on the trainers table, you would be wise to view Quentin as nothing more than a mid round outfield gamble in mixed leagues. There’s always a chance that some home cooking will inspire him (for example I know I type much better when I’ve had a nice home cooked meal of SPAM and cheese), but in my mind he simply cannot be trusted to be an elite power bat given the particulars of his situation in 2012.

By Ray Flowers

Reds Deal to Add Latos

It’s been a few days since the Reds and Padres swung a huge deal, and with the dust settled I thought it would be a good time to investigate both sides and see if there was a winner and loser,

Padres Receive: Edinson Volquez, Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal and Brad Boxberger

Reds receive: Mat Latos

Reds Haul – The Reds got the most productive player in the deal in Latos. A legitimate rising star, Latos went 14-10 with a 2.92 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 189 Ks as a 22 year old in 2010. Last year the record was reversed, he went 9-14, while his ERA (3.47), and WHIP (1.18) went up. He also struck out four fewer batters in 9.2 more innings, but that’s a wash.

For the past two years Latos has been one of the better right-handed pitchers in the NL. He’s also very young which means he’s a nice addition for a team in Cincinnati that needs cost certainty with their players. As for what to expect from Latos, there are some issues to keep an eye on. With only two seasons of data to rely on I’m admittedly guessing a bit here, but I don’t like to see his K/9 rate and ground ball rate go down while his BB/9 rate and line drive rate went up in his second full season. I also don’t like the fact that he’s leaving one of the best pitchers park’s in baseball for a yard that clearly favors the hitter. This is especially concerning given that his 1.03 GB/FB rate for his career is league average. Since Great America ballpark is the most homer happy park in the NL according to Park Indices, he might have a hard time keep that ERA in the low 3′s.

Padres Haul – Where to begin.

Volquez is a mess. Oh he owns a solid arm he did go 17-6 with a 3.21 ERA  and 206 Ks in 2008, but the last few years he has struggled to throw strikes (the last three years his BB/9 mark has been above 5.00). Until he does a better job of location his pitches, it’s going to be very difficult to count on him as anything more than a 5th starter. Still, he moves to Petco which should rectify his homer woes, and when you factor in that he has posted an impressive 1.75 GB/FB ratio over his last 171.1 innings, you can see there is a chance that he could post some top-shelf pitching totals with half the Padres games at Petco.

Alonso hit .330 with a .943 OPS in 88 at-bats last season and he projects as a solid bat at first base (he’s been tried as on outfielder, but he really doesn’t have the athleticism for it). Alonso has also hit .296 with a .842 OPS in 192 games at Triple-A seemingly proving that his time is now. The addition by the Padres is a bit odd though given that they already have Anthony Rizzo as their first baseman of the future. Maybe they work out a way for the duo to play together – possibly Alonso in that outfield role – but the winds are suggesting that the Pads might deal Rizzo this offseason.

Grandal is a switch hitter who is close to being ready for the bigs (his addition likely ends the future with the Padres for Nick Hundley). Grandal hit .303 with 14 homers, 69 RBI and a .401 OBP as he flew through three minor league levels last season. His time will come, likely in 2013.

Boxberger is the least exciting name in the group, though it’s not like he doesn’t have a big arm. After all, he’s struck out 11.9 batters per nine innings in his 153.2 innings as a big league hurler. He worked as a starter in 2010, but last year he was moved to the bullpen.

Winner – Come on now, it’s not even close. I have no idea what the Reds were doing in this deal. They dealt away Volquez, who already has a season on his record that is equivalent to what Latos has posted the last two years. They dealt away Alonso, a bat that many predict could hit .300 with 20 homers year after year. They dealt away a catching prospect in Grandal who was the 12th overall selection in the 2010 MLB Entry Draft. We’ve heard the Reds say, ‘but we have Joey Votto at first base and Devin Mesoraco is an even better option at catcher than Grandal,’ but even so, you don’t just give up talent because you have depth. Maybe this deal will result in the Reds winning their division in 2012, but moving forward this has the ring of the type of deal that the Giants made years ago when they sent Francisco Liriano and Joe Nathan to the Twins for A.J. Pierzynski.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Player Profile: Aaron Harang

Photo by Adam Sonnett

I get questions all day about players, and one I’m constantly fielding queries about is Aaron Harang of the Padres. Since I can’t write what I need to in 140 characters on Twitter, and so as to save myself having to answer the same question in email 13 times, here are my thoughts on the righty.

First off, don’t let anyone tell you I’m a Johnny Come Lately with Harang as I had him ranked 82nd amongst all starting pitchers coming into 2011. It’s not just that I had him there, ahead of many others, it should also be noted that I specifically denoted him as a pitcher I would target late. Why did I feel that way? There were three main reasons.

(1) Harang appeared to be healthy after struggling for a couple of seasons to stay on the field.

(2) He was moving home, he was born in San Diego, to pitch in the best park in the majors for pitchers.

(3) He really wasn’t as bad the past few years as most people seemed to think.

Points #1 and #2 are self explanatory, and if you think #2 is poppy cock, here is what I think of you – you’re confused. Think about it. Do you feel more at ease when you have that first date at your place where you can control the temperature, the food, the wine and the ambiance OR do you feel more comfortable going to your dates house hoping that he/she has a clean bathroom you could use if you have to go? Exactly.

As for his work on the field, here is a brief history of Harang’s accomplishments.

From 2002-04 he was finding his footing in the bigs.

In 2005 he had his first 200-inning season winning 11 games with a 3.83 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.

In 2006 he won 16 games, had 216 Ks, posted a 3.76 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 234.1 innings.

In 2007 he posted a nearly identical effort to ’06: 16 wins, 218 Ks, 3.73 ERA, 1.14 WHIP over 231.2 innings.

In 2008 things fell apart as he went 6-17 with a 4.78 ERA and in 2009 he was nearly as bad (6-14, 4.21 ERA). Last year things were even worse as he posted a 5.32 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over 111.2 innings. Given that work from 2008-10, how could I possibly state above that he really wasn’t that bad a hurler last year? Here’s how.

From 2008-2010 Harang made 78 appearances. Even though his ratios were horrible, 4.71 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP, while his record was abysmal at 18-36, there was some good just below the surface. Honestly.

Harang posted a 7.40 K/9 mark which was better than the big league average of 7.12 in that time.

Harang walked a mere 2.57 guys per nine innings from 2008-10, well below the big league mark in that time of 3.44.

It’s only two categories I know, but the point is that even though he really struggled the past three years, there were still a few reasons not to abandon ship.

Third, always a homer prone hurler, Harang moved from a park that was second best for home run hitters the past three years (Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati) to Petco in San Diego – the hardest park to go deep in according to Park Indices.

So far, so good.

2011 OUTLOOOK

3-0, 1.50 ERA, 16 K, 0.94 WHIP in 18 IP

Harang has started off white hot. The Ks have been there – 8.00 per nine – and as expected he has (a) limited the walks allowing just 2.50 per nine and (b) avoided the dreaded long ball (zero homers allowed). Obviously Harang will not be able to keep up his current pace for the duration of the year, but there is little reason to think that he shan’t once again be a viable starter in mixed leagues.  At this point Harang should be viewed as nothing more than a solid depth starter in mixed leagues because he still has to prove he can effectively take the ball 30 times before you should think about going all in with him. Still, the early returns are positive and it’s very difficult to envision a scenario in which he shouldn’t be rostered in a 12 team mixed league.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Player Profile: Tim Stauffer

People always ask me, ‘who are your sleepers for the coming season?’ As I wrote recently in Do Sleepers Exist?, I’m pretty dubious that we can use the term as we once did before the proliferation of information that the internet has brought. However, that doesn’t mean that there aren’t players being drafted exceedingly low that couldn’t be difference makers in the coming campaign. One of those hurlers is a guy you may never have spent 10 seconds thinking about – Tim Stauffer.

Let’s start with who the hell Tim Stauffer is.

For those of you who don’t know, and I assume that is a large portion of you, Stauffer was a first round draft pick by the Padres in 2003. However, he has never quite reached the heights expected of him after he was worked very hard his last two years in college (he has lost a few mph off his fastball from those days). Stauffer has made 38 starts and 64 appearances in his career going 14-19 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over 250.1 innings. So why am I wasting the time to devote an entire column to him today? You all wanted me to talk about “sleepers” right? Well here is an example of a hurler who, if given a chance at significant innings, could be a strong NL-only option in 2011.

(1) Stauffer appears to have a shot at the 5th starters role with the Padres. Here’s how the rotation would appear to be lined up at the moment:

Mat Latos, Aaron Harang, Wade LeBlanc, Clayton Richard

It looks like the 5th starters spot will come down to a battle between Cory Luebke, Dustin Moseley and Stauffer.

(2) Petco is still a wonderful place to pitch no matter what role a pitcher finds himself in.

(3) Stauffer finished last season with a 1.85 ERA in 82.2 innings. Amongst pitchers who threw 80-innings in 2010 that was the best mark in baseball.

(4) Stauffer posted a 1.08 WHIP in 2010. Amongst pitchers who threw 80-innings in 2010 that was the 8th best mark in baseball.

(5) Stauffer was equally effective last season no matter what role he filled.
As a reliever: 1.87 ERA, 1.11 WHIP in 43.1 innings (25 games)
As a stater: 1.83 ERA, 1.04 WHIP in 39.1 innings (seven games)

(6) Stauffer does a solid job of keeping the ball on the ground leading to a career GB/FB mark of 1.31. That’s a solid rate, but last season he took things to a whole new level which resulted in a GB/FB mark of 1.76. Given that he induced 10 percent more ground balls last season (54.5%) than his career average (45.9%) it is fair to speculate that some regression will be forthcoming in 2011, but it’s tantalizing to think how much success he could have if he can continue to get batters to beat the ball into the ground.

Will Stauffer be able to match his ERA and WHIP from ’10 in the coming season? I don’t think he has a chance to do that even if he ends up in the bullpen. His line drive rate was far too low last season at 14.6 percent (career 18.9), and because of all the ground balls his homer total was terrific (only three allowed in 82.2 innings). Those numbers will normalize, at least somewhat, this season, and with that both of his ratios will rise. Still, that doesn’t mean that they wont end up in a zone where they would still remain strong totals in an NL-only league.

The real key to his success might be the ability to throw quality strikes while avoiding the free pass. Last season his BB/9 mark was 2.61, a massive improvement over the 4.19 mark he posted in 2009. Given that his strikeout rate has been in the mid six’s the past two seasons, it’s important that he limits the walks.

Will Stauffer be a mixed league option in 2011? He might be if he is given 30 starts, but that doesn’t mean I would go all in on him. Conversely, I do think he is a strong option in NL-only leagues while at the same time being someone you can consider rostering in deep mixed leagues in the reserve rounds.

Anyone can tell you that James Shields is a sleeper heading into the season, but you wanted a deep sleeper. I just gave you a report on one of the guys that might fit that bill in 2011.

By Ray Flowers

What is a HOF Closer?

We’d all like to think we could recognize greatness when we see it. When Albert Pujols unleashes his beautifully timed swing with an exquisite follow-through, you know you are witnessing greatness. When Roy Halladay is baffling hitters with pitches from all angles at all speeds going in all directions, you know you are witnessing greatness. But how do you know you are witnessing greatness when we are talking about relief pitchers who only toss an inning per outing?

This question will continue to be raised in the coming years, especially when it comes to Hall of Fame balloting as the voters try to place closers into historical context given that they have truly been a part of the landscape, at least in their current role, for barely 25 years. Is there a number of saves that guarantees election to the Hall of Fame like 300 wins for a pitcher and 3,000 hits for a batter? To this point in the voting process there is no agreed upon number for greatness. Lee Smith, who is third all-time with 478 saves, received only 45.3 percent of the vote in the latest go round (you need 75 percent to be inducted into the Hall). John Franco, who is 4th on the saves list with 424, was named only 27 ballots this year falling below five percent of the vote at 4.6 percent meaning he will no longer be eligible to be voted on during balloting. Apparently, 400 saves doesn’t guarantee you entry to the Hall.

But what about 500 saves? There are currently only two men in that club and one is Mariano Rivera with 559 saves. Will he make the Hall of Fame? Is that the dumbest question I have ever posed on BaseballGuys.com?

What about the other man with at least 500 saves, who is also the only man in history with 600 – Trevor Hoffman – who just announced his retirement from the game? Of course he will make the Hall of Fame, wont he? I say if he doesn’t get elected on the first ballot then the voters are detached from reality. Whatever you think of the save – and frankly it’s not a very good way to judge a pitchers effectiveness – the fact of the matter is that the game is run in order to get a team’s closer into the game in the 9th inning to seal a victory. Given that every team in the game follows this formula, how could you possibly not reward the men that were the best at what they do?

Hoffman led the league in saves, shockingly, only twice (53 in 1998 and 46 in 2006), in his storied career. Still, he is the all-time leader both in saves and games finished (856). Hoffman was also in the top-7 in saves 15 times in 16 seasons, only missing out in 2003 when injury limited him to nine innings. Moreover, Hoffman also had stretches of eight and six years in a row with 30-saves – the run of eight from 1995-2002 is tied with Rivera (2003-10) for the longest stretch in history. That means Hoffman racked up 14 seasons of 30 saves, the most in the history of the game (Rivera has 13 such seasons).

More than just a saves machine, Hoffman and his change-up posted an ERA of 2.87 for his career, 49.1 percent better than the league average of 4.28. Hoffman also registered a stupendous WHIP of 1.06, a K/9 mark of 9.36, and a K.BB ratio of 3.69. All of those numbers, every single one of them, speaks to Hoffman’s HOF credentials.

Obviously Hoffman did his job, arguably, as well as any man who ever played the game. However, he just doesn’t have the mystic of Mariano Rivera who not only pitches for the Yankees but somehow has gotten batters our for all of these years with just a single pitch. Not only that, Rivera has been the greatest postseason pitcher the game has ever seen; Rivera is 8-1 with 42 saves, a 0.71 ERA and a 0.77 WHIP over 139.2 innings whereas Hoffman made just 12 postseason appearances that included a blown save in his only World Series. Hoffman spent virtually his entire career on the West Coast meaning many people may have actually seen him pitch only a handful of times, and that certainly wont help his candidacy. He also toiled away on a second division club for the majority of his career, and his success was predicated on a devastating change-up that sure didn’t impress many who were watching the game from the grandstand. All Hoffman did, day after day, was get people out.

Will that be good enough for the Hall of Fame even if those who watched him pitch never used the word “greatness” to describe his work? Time will tell, but if I had a ballot I would put a check mark next to Trevor Hoffman’s name without hesitation – he was the best to ever fill the role of closer in the history of the National League.

By Ray Flowers

Signings and Strategy

I had a nice weekend. I went out on a wonderful date on Friday night, amazingly the second time that the beautiful woman agreed to see me, had my first Tom Collins on Saturday (not bad at all), and I got to lounge around on Sunday in my pajamas while watching inane movies off my recently purchased subscription to Netflix. I also spent my usual amount of time running through all the happenings in the sports world as I found out that even while slightly intoxicated I could still remember the majority of facts and figures I came across (to be honest I already knew this having spent a good portion of the past three years drunk – my mom would be so proud). Hopefully your weekend went as well as mine.

Enough with that. You didn’t come here to read about my fledgling life as a social butterfly, so let’s get down to some hardcore analysis shall we?

A Signing and a Free Agent

Jason Bartlett signed a 2-year, $11 million deal to take over at shortstop for the Padres. The deal buys out his last season of arbitration and first year of free agency in 2012. The dollars might seem somewhat pricey given that he hit .254 with 47 RBI and 11 steals last year, but he was a fantasy superstar in 2009 (.320-14-66-90-30). The “real” Bartlett is somewhere between those two extremes. I’d draft Bartlett for his average (.281 career) and for the speed that led to 20-steals each year from 2007-09. If he returns to that level he will have an awful lot of value in NL-only leagues.

Brian Fuentes is still a free agent, and I’m having a hard time understanding why that is. Maybe he wants big dollars, but plenty of middle relievers this offseason have gotten loaded (see Hot Stove: Not Everyone is Greedy). Perhaps it is because he wants to serve as a closer and teams don’t have an opening for him there? What I can say for certain is that he still owns the skills to be a highly effective reliever. He only lasted 48 innings last season because of injury, but when he was on the hill he was vintage Fuentes with a 2.81 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and an 8.81 K/9 mark. The K-rate was down a full batter from his career rate, and that certainly is a concern, but after posting a career worst 7.53 mark in ’09 adding a batter plus to that rate in ’10 is certainly encouraging. It should also be noted that his fly ball rate last season was over 58 percent, a massive number. If/when that number recedes closer to his career rate of 45.0 percent, one would think he would have little trouble continuing to get batters out. With all of that, and the fact that he is one of just four men with at least 20 saves each of the past six years (Mariano Rivera, Francisco Cordero, Francisco Rodriguez), isn’t it odd that Brian is still twisting in the wind?

Strategy Corner

A brief thought as we slowly start to move away from fantasy football into fantasy baseball.

Don’t believe the hype.

Sometimes the hype is warranted, but at least as often the hype ends up amounting to little. How does that apply to the early 2011 mock draft winds?

Adrian Gonzalez is being taken as a first round selection. I’ve already given my thoughts as to why I think that is a bad idea in ADP Riser: Adrian Gonzalez. Also, put this in your pipe and smoke it – do you know how many seasons A-Gone has had with a .300 average and 30 homers? The answer is zero. There are a lot of reasons to think A-Gone will be extremely productive this season, and if healthy a .300-30 season seems a strong bet, but that doesn’t mean he’ll improve to the level of being a top-10 selection. I would only suggest that you do your own analysis and take into account your own thoughts on the matter and don’t blindly jump in because it’s what everyone else is doing. Sometimes doing the old zig while everyone is zagging is beneficial. Don’t be a sheep following the others, be your own person and lead based on what you think is right, even if it is counter to the commonly accepted position of the “experts.”

The World of Numbers

I love numbers – you might have gathered that if you have read anything I have ever written. If you have a few more minutes to kill reading my work, click on the link to By the Numbers where I talk about the historical greatness of Vladimir Guerrero, Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez and Jim Thome to name but a few of the players I tackle in the piece.

By Ray Flowers