ADP Riser: Adrian Gonzalez

I get it. A big bat gets paid bazillions of dollars, leaves the worst hitting park in baseball, and that transforms the player into a dynamic offensive weapon. I certainly buy that to a point with Adrian Gonzalez, but it seems like most of my fantasy brethren have been hitting the hookah pipe a bit too frequently when it comes to estimating Gonzalez’s fantasy value in 2011.

Over at Fanball in a well written article by Greg Ambrosius entitled NFBC: The Rise of A-Gone, Gregg points out how voters are loving them some Adrian Gonzalez because of the move out of Petco and to Fenway Park. Greg gives the data simply: before the Trade Gonzalez went 27th or 29th in the 15 team mixed league drafts for the NFBC. After the trade to Boston that number jumped to 20, 18, 16, 14 and 11.

Does that meteoric rise make any sense? Greg does a great job in the piece laying out the statistical reasons that seem to be behind the rise in Adrian’s ADP numbers. Greg also points out a rather interesting number that some may not be aware of – in each of the past four seasons Gonzalez has gone deep at least 20 times on the road (he never hit more than 14 at home). Does this mean he is a lock for 40 homers? I think “lock” is too strong a term for a guy who has hit 40 homers only once in his career. Why? I think it will surprise many people to learn that Fenway wasn’t exactly a homer heaven for left-handed batters last season. Seriously. Here are the Park Indices number for left-handed hitting batters, in the homer category, for 2011 for Petco and Fenway (100 is neutral, under 100 favors pitchers, over 100 favors hitters).

Petco: 64, 16th in the NL
Fenway: 86, 9th in the AL

The truth of the matter is that Fenway really doesn’t boost the power numbers of left-handed batters at all with a mark of 88 the past three years, 12th in the American League. Shocked aren’t you?

Beyond that, there are two major issues that concern me.

First of all, Gonzalez had shoulder surgery and while everyone believes he will be at or near 100 percent this season it’s quite possible that he will not be allowed to swing a bat until March. Do you really want to spend a first round pick on a guy who will only have a month of hacks under his belt before games count?

Second, what about the wealth of talent at first base in 2011? If you look at the Fanball Staff Rankings you will notice that I’m the lowest of the ranking members in terms of my placement of Gonzalez as I have him at 9th at the position. Is that too low? I’ll freely admit that it might be, by a lot. Still, I’d take Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Mark Teixeira and Ryan Howard ahead of him with no problem. I think you have to also toss Prince Fielder into that mix even with some of his struggles last season since he still had 32 bombs and posted a .401 OBP (Gonzalez was at 31 and .393 by the way). Kevin Youkilis is also coming back from surgery but I might be convinced to move him behind the Red Sox new first baseman. Finally, the move of Adam Dunn to the White Sox would appear to give him a legit shot at 45 homers if not more. After all, U.S. Cellular Field in Chitown is first in Park Indices for homers the past three years, and fourth for left-handed batters.

Add all of that up and I’m gonna let someone else take Gonzalez with the 16th pick. I’ll happily wait 20 selections to roster Adam Dunn.

And finally, in the I told you so file…

Edgar Renteria was disrespected, or whatever he said, when the Giants offered him a 1-year deal for $1 million. Guess he had a right to feel that way. It looks like he got a deal from the Reds for $3 million. I don’t know if that makes him seem smart, or if that means the Reds are just lost?

By Ray Flowers

Hote Stove: Not Everyone is Greedy

Relievers continue to get paid, Adrian Beltre is the last big bat on the free agent market, and a handful of mid-level offensive players have found their homes for the 2011 season.

Adrian Beltre: He wants something like $80 million dollars. He shouldn’t get it. However, he might, as the Angels have been unable to attract any of the options they were hoping to land (Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, Josh Willingham etc.), while losing Hideki Matsui to the Athletics (Hot Stove: Lee Isn’t Only Newsmaker). Will they capitulate to the demands of the incomparable super agent Scott Boras who has likely tried to convince them that Beltre is better than Mike Schmidt? The Angels would be wise to read The Curious Case of Adrian Beltre where I point out how Beltre had one other “special” season in his career which, by pure chance I’m sure, just so happened to come right as Beltre was heading into free agency.

Kevin Gregg: Will he and the Orioles ever get this thing figured out? The two sides have been linked for weeks now with an offer of $8-10 million over two years reportedly being floated his way. Why has Gregg balked at what seems like a reasonable deal? The recent contracts given to Scott Downs (3-years, $15 million), Matt Guerrier (3-years, $12 million), Jesse Crain (3-years, $12 million) and Bobby Jenks (2-years, $12) certainly aren’t helping the Orioles (for more on Jenks give Hot Stove: Signings Galore a read). “It’s fair to say that we’re still in discussions with a few teams and Baltimore is one of them,” said Danny Horwits, Kevin Gregg;’s agent. Say what you will about Gregg, but the fact remains that he is one of only seven relievers in baseball with at least 23 saves in each of the last four seasons. With middle relievers getting such huge deals, you can’t blame Gregg for holding out for more.

Orlando Hudson: Sorry David Eckstein, but with Padres pending addition of Jason Bartlett and today’s signing of O-Dog (2-years, $11.5 million), it might finally be the end of the road for you. I for one have no issue whatsoever in tipping my cap to you. The fact you were able to accomplish so much with so little is flat out amazing. As for Hudson, can we please, finally, put this guy to rest as a solid fantasy option? Every year he is over-drafted, but the simple fact of the matter is that he is nothing more than a replacement level fantasy option, if that. He does own a career .280 average, but he has averaged only eight steals the past eight seasons, hasn’t reached double-digits in homers since 2007, has never knocked in 70 runs, and only twice scored 80 runs. Great defender, great guy, and a wonderful role model, but in terms of his fantasy value he is middling at best, especially now that he will call Petco home.

Bill Hall: Let us all shed a tear for the end of the Jeff Keppinger / Tommy Manzella era in Houston. How could the club look to replace the best up the middle duo since Trammell and Whitaker? Obviously it’s because of the vast improvement they were able to make through the trade and free agent market (wink, wink). A month ago the club signed Clint Barmes to play shortstop, and I wrote about just how poor an idea that was in AL CY and Two Deals. Not content with that brilliant move, the Astros then went out and added Bill Hall off the free agent market on Friday signing him to a 1-year deal for around $3 million dollars to play second base. Hall has power, I won’t dispute that, but he has hit just .225 over the past three years while striking out 32 percent of the time. That’s ain’t good. I have little doubt that Barmes will go deep 15 times or that Hall could approach 25 homers playing everyday, but what are the Astros doing to their teams ability to score runs? As it stands today, if we assume the club will go with Carlos Lee at first base which seems like their current plan (sorry Brett Wallace), here is how their infield would shape up in terms of their 2010 OBPs.

C: Jason Castro (.286), Humberto Quintero (.262)
1B: Carlos Lee (.291)
2B: Bill Hall (.316)
3B: Chris Johnson (.337)
SS: Clint Barmes (.305)

To compare, the big league average in 2010 was .325. That’s right, only one of those players was even league average last year in his ability to get on base. Better get one of those disaster survival kits Astros’ fans, there could be some significant scoring droughts this season.

Xavier Nady: Signed to a 1-year deal for $1.75 million with the D’backs. Nady will likely be asked to play some first base and left field, and to add some pop to a team that has lost its two best power bats from 2010 (Adam LaRoche who is a free agent and Mark Reynolds who was dealt to the Orioles). Nady wasn’t at full strength last year after Tommy John surgery, so the Diamondbacks are willing to cut him some slack for his poor performance (.256-7-31 with a .660 OPS in 236 at-bats). Nady hit 25 homers while batting .305 as recently as 2008, but he has only one other 20 homer season on his resume. Still, this was a nice low cost addition by the D’backs, and he does makes a fine NL-only option.

And finally, the strange case of Kerry Wood…

As I referenced above relievers, even middle relievers, have been getting ginormous deals this offseason. So what is your reaction when you hear that Wood signed a 1-year deal for $1.5 million to play for the Cubs? My reaction was utter shock – I couldn’t have been more caught off guard if a Playboy Playmate had shown up on my doorstep wearing a Santa suit and holding a bottle of champagne (sorry, that’s always been a fantasy of mine). Come on, honestly, isn’t a hottie on my doorstep a more reasonable expectation than Wood signing for a mere $1.5 million? Apparently he really missed Chicago, so I give him credit for leaving millions to return to Chicago (apparently he really wanted to pitch for the Cubs and not the White Sox who reportedly offered a 1-year deal for $3.5 million). Wood will serve as the primary setup man for Carlos Marmol in Chicago, and if he pitches anything like the hurler who had a 0.69 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 31 Ks in 26 innings with the Yankees this could turn out to be the best contract given by a club this offseason.

By Ray Flowers

The End of Baseball?

“And I saw, and behold, a pale horse, and its rider’s name was Death, and Hades followed him; and they were given power over a fourth of the earth, to kill with sword and with famine and with pestilence and by wild beasts of the Earth.”
- The beginning of the Apocalypse in the Book of Revelation (by the way everyone, there is no “S” in the title of that work).

To transition this verse over to the world of baseball, are the Yankees “Death” and the Red Sox “Hades?”

The Red Sox traded for Adrian Gonzalez. Because of tax related issues, the club has a deal in place with Gonzalez (wink, wink) for a reported 7-years and $154 million (the announcement will have to wait until April. Oh, and I’m not buying Gonzalez saying earlier today that there is no deal in place).

Was that all the spending the Red Sox engaged in this week? Why of course not. They went out and added Carl Crawford on a deal that is being reported as a 7-years, $142 million (thanks to Jayson Werth for driving that price up – he can expect a huge flat screen TV under his tree from Mr. Crawford).

So, in the span of mere days, the Red Sox invested nearly $300 million in two players.

The Yankees? They have remained relatively quiet so far, a shock to be sure, but it’s only a matter of time before they land their man – Cliff Lee – on a deal that is expected to grow to well over $130 million (potentially as high as $150). Oh wait, I almost forgot. The Yankees did invest over $80 million to retain all-time greats Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera, so it’s not like they have completely sat out the offseason party.

Welcome to the world of 21st century baseball folks.

This should come as no surprise though. According to ESPN, and I’ll get back to them in a moment, the Yankees payroll in 2010 was $206,738,389. No other team in baseball was over the $160,913,333 that the – you guessed it – Red Sox spent. In fact, they were the only teams in baseball over $150 million. Moreover, only eight teams in baseball, including the aforementioned Yanks and Sox, spent $100 million as the World Champion San Francisco Giants just missed joining the group at just slightly over $98.5 million.

Need something to talk about at your companies holiday party? If you add up the payrolls of the four lowest paying teams in 2010 – the Pirates, Padres, Diamondbacks and Athletics – you would just barely move past the Red Sox team salary at $172,424,366 – some $34 million short of the Yankees outlay.

You need some more data to share when the spiked eggnog starts to wear out? If we average out the prospective deals of Crawford and Gonzalez we end up with an annual salary for the duo of about $42.3 million. That’s more than either the Pirates or Padres spent on their entire teams in 2010.

I think you get the point.

I’m a free market guy, an ideas such as income redistribution that are often floated by people in our government disgust me. However, will you permit me to be a bit of a hypocrite here? Thank you.

Baseball has to do something to rectify this situation. You simply can’t have one team spending, literally, five times as much as others. How in the world can there be any competitive balance in such a world? Speaking of that, the real shock in all of this might be how in the world the Yankees or Red Sox don’t win the World Series every year given their financial commitments. Am I in favor of a salary cap? It hurts me to type this, but I think baseball has to move in that direction. It might be beneficial to not only have a cap, but also to have some kind of flooring like the NHL does. In truth, I would be in favor of there being a flooring more than an upper echelon limit that would impede teams from improving their club. Revenue sharing and the like could be brought into play, but whatever decisions are made, something must be done.

And this brings me back to ESPN. How are they culpable? Have you tried to watch your hometown team on ESPN lately? Unless you live in New York, Boston, Philadelphia or Chicago, ESPN doesn’t admit that you exist. Ever watch Sportscenter, or as I have dubbed it “Yankees – Red Sox television?” A whole generation of kids who don’t live in those cities are never exposed to any other clubs. Have 95 percent of people in the United States ever seen the wondrous Andrew McCutchen play? Does anyone outside of California realize that the Athletics had the best starting pitching in the American League last season? By focusing so heavily on the “big” markets, ESPN is effectively telling people, tangentially, that the other teams don’t matter. So, is anyone surprised that the Giants and Rangers World Series was the lowest rated Series in television history? I mean, for goodness sakes, it’s not like San Francisco isn’t a huge media market. Moreover, the Rangers had never won the World Series while the Giants hadn’t won since 1954, so there is no reason the baseball universe shouldn’t have been riveted by the matchup.

Baseball isn’t broken by any means, but the path they are currently on will one day end up in ruins. Before The Four Horseman come to wreak havoc on the land, hopefully the powers that be in baseball will avert the disaster by policing themselves a bit better to ensure the ultimately survival of the whole sport, and not just the well being of teams that play their home games in two cities.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: December 7, 2010

With rumors flying fast and furious, I’ll do my best to be brief here, lest my reports be out of date by the time you read them. By the way, if you want to be kept up to date with minute by minute reports of everything going on at the Winter Meetings, make sure you follow my work on the Baseball Guys’ Twitter page where I try to mention everything that comes across the rumor mill.

Carlos Beltran – There is an absurd rumor out there that the Red Sox have had internal talks about making a run at adding the Mets’ outfielder. Who is on crack in the Red Sox front office? It remains to be seen if Beltran will ever be able to return to his former glory days because of that knee, and unless the Mets are willing to eat more than half of the $18.5 million dollars he is owed for 2011 to move him, there is no way in hell Beltran is going anywhere.

Zack Greinke – He wants out so badly he told the team they could trade him to anyone. I understand, I wouldn’t want to pitch for the Royals either, but really, isn’t this just another example of why the Royals suck? I mean, how do you justify to your fans moving your best player? Maybe the Royals can share notes with the Padres who just pulled off the same trick with Adrian Gonzalez. Speaking of Gonzalez (shoulder surgery), reports that he wouldn’t swing a bat until March appear to be accurate. Doesn’t that make you a wee bit nervous Red Sox fans?

Paul Konerko – He wants $15 million a year, the White Sox only want to pay him something like $12-13 a year. The Sox r need money to strengthen their pen since they lost J.J Putz and Bobby Jenks, but I can’t see how there wont be some meeting of the minds here since Konerko has spent the last 12 seasons with the club.

Cliff Lee – It still seems like the Rangers and Yankees are in the lead for his services. I gotta tell ya though, rumors persist that the Nationals are in the mix even after lavishing a massive contract on Jayson Werth (you can view my thoughts on that deal at Around the Horn: Hot Stove, December 6). I don’t see how the Nats could bring Lee into the fold given their cash outlay to Werth, but here’s to hoping they can find the dough to make it interesting.

Brandon Webb – I know everyone wanta to look like a genius if they can sign him on the cheap with an incentive laden deal and then watch him return to All-Star form, but the guy has thrown only four innings in two seasons because of a wonky shoulder. It must be music to the ears of other hurlers like Brandon McCarthy who is also drawing interest after throwing the ball well in the Venezuelan Winter League. The A’s seem to be at the top of the list for McCarthy, while virtually every NL team appears to be chasing Webb.

Ty Wigginton – Signed a 2-year deal for $7.5 million to join the Rockies. Clearly the club isn’t sold on Todd Helton ever being able to play a full slate of games again because of his back woes. They may have overpaid slightly, but Wigginton is a versatile player whose power swing will play well in Coors.

Why is No One Paying Attention?

Finally, why in the world aren’t more people getting excited about the deal that sent Shaun Marcum to the Brewers? The AL East was about the worst division in baseball to pitch in, and the past two years Marcum has been on the hill he has gone 22-15 with a 3.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 3.10 K/BB ratio. Last time I checked, and it was about 13 seconds ago, there were only eight pitchers in baseball in 2011 who had an ERA below 3.50, a WHIP under 1.15 and a K/BB ratio of at least 3.10. Marcum should continue to be damn effective as the number two starter behind Yovani Gallardo in Milwaukee.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Hot Stove, Dec.6, 2010

(1) Adrian Gonzalez traded to Red Sox.

(2) Derek Jeter agrees to 3-year deal with Yankees.

(3) Mariano Rivera agrees to 2-year deal with Yankees.

(4) Lance Berkman signs with Cardinals.

(5) Cliff Lee will become insanely rich.

(6) Carl Pavano will hit it big as 2nd best SP on market.

(7) Jayson Werth gets seven years from Nationals.

(8) Adam Dunn signs with White Sox.

(9) Carl Crawford looking for $150 million plus over eight years.

(10) Mark Reynolds now an Oriole.

By Ray Flowers

Californian’s on the Move

Uribe to Dodgers

Jose Uribe, coming off a career best season of 24 homers and 85 RBI, signed a 3-year deal for $21 million to leave the World Champion San Francisco Giants (it’s still an amazing feeling to write that), to move south to join the Dodgers. He now becomes a hated player in this writers’ household as he joined the Dodgers placing his name alongside the likes of Benedict Arnold.

Now I’m not saying that the Giants should have matched the offer, they certainly should not have. It’s too much money, and too many years for Uribe. Why the Dodgers would give him that contract for Uribe to play second base is also a mystery. They already have 37 year old Casey Blake at third, and an aging an injury prone Rafael Furcal at short which means that Uribe will play second base. He’ll give them ample power for that spot (he’ll still qualify at third and shortstop in fantasy baseball 2011 as well), but let’s put things in perspective.

Uribe is a career .256 hitter who batted .248 last season.

Uribe never walks. His career-high was in 2010 when he walked all of 45 times. As a result, his OBP is .300 for his career. Not his batting average, his OBP. That’s dreadful when you consider that the league average since 2001. the start of his career, is .337.

Though he has hit 20-homers four times, he has averaged only 17 homers per 500 at-bats in his career. Speaking of 500 at-bats, he has only eclipsed that mark twice (2007 and 2010), and his career SLG of .431 is just five points better than the league average during his career.

Uribe also has no speed with only seven steals the last five seasons.

Only once in three years has he hit more than 16 homers.
Only once in three years has he scored more than 50 runs.
Only once in three years has he had more than 55 RBI.
Only once in three years has he hit over .250.

To wrap it up, the Dodger gave a 33 year old versatile infielder who has averaged, per 500 at-bats in his career a line of.256-17-69-63 with a .731 OPS, $7 million a year for three years. I can’t envision a scenario where they don’t end up regretting that.

Torrealba to Rangers

Yorvit Torrealba left the Padres to join the Rangers as he signed a 2-year deal for $6.25 million. Yorvit will replace Bengie Molina as the Rangers #1 man behind the dish (it’s not known if Molina will retire or look for another deal).

Torrealba had a Catcher’s ERA of 3.14 in 2010, and that was the best mark in Padres history for a catcher who appeared in 81 or more games. It was also the lowest since Paul Lo Duca posted the same mark in 2003 for the Dodgers. The Rangers had the 4th best ERA in the AL in 2010 with a 3.93 mark, so Yorvit will have a solid staff to work with.

As for his offense, it’s pretty fair for a catcher. It’s always hard to tell how good a guy is when his playing time is sporadic, and that is certainly the case with Torrealba who has had only one season in his career of more than 325 at-bats. Torrealba has 538 at-bats the past two years, basically a full season, an in that time he has hit .279 with nine homers, 68 RBI, 58 runs and a .725 OPS. He also moves from arguably the worst hitting park in baseball in San Diego for one of the best in Texas, and that should certainly help his production. All told, he is a sure fire starting in AL-only leagues, and he has a legit shot to be a solid second catcher in mixed leagues as well, especially if he is able to increase his at-bat total a bit. This deal, unlike the one given to Uribe, seems like a really good move for the Rangers, especially when a guy like John Buck got 3-years and $18 million from the Marlins.

By Ray Flowers

Votto A Runaway Winner?

Every time I pat the voters on the back, like I did for their AL Cy Young selection of Felix Hernandez, they turn around and do something a bit odd. In a piece entitled Who is the NL MVP?, I made a case for a narrow, and I mean razor thin, victory for Joey Votto over Albert Pujols. The Baseball Writers Association of America got it right in giving the award to Votto, so what am I scratching my head over? The results. Here they are:

Joey Votto: 31 1st place votes, one 2nd, for 443 points
Albert Pujols: one first, 21 2nd, eight 3rd, one 4th, one sixth, for 279 points
Carlos Gonzalez: 0-7-13-5-4-2-1, for 240 points.

Votto and Pujols were the only two players listed on every ballot. I have no idea in the world how CarGo wasn’t deemed at least the 10th best player by one voter who should have their credentials revoked, but I’m even more aghast at the fact that Votto was a near unanimous selection. Again, I’m not saying that Votto didn’t deserve the award, but 31 of 32 first place votes? After all, Pujols did lead the NL in RBI (118) and runs (115), it’s not like he as crushed in a myriad of other categories by Votto.

Pujols: .312/.414/.596, 42 HRs, 14 SBs, 39 doubles, 103 BB, 76 Ks
Votto: .324/.424/.600, 37 HRs, 16 SBs, 36 doubles, 91 BB, 125 Ks

There is simply no way that I can fathom this situation ending up with Votto being a near unanimous selection.

Let the bashing of me begin since I’m sure I will get a host of emails saying ‘but Votto’s Reds made the playoffs’ to which I will reply – so flipping what? This isn’t tennis folks. Baseball is a team game, and no matter how great a player is, no one person can win anything by his lonesome. This is about as tired an argument as I ever come across, and year after year you hear countless people espousing this nonsense. As near as I can figure it, this very line of reasoning must have been why Adrian Gonzalez received 197 points while Ryan Braun picked up only 19. After all, the Padres just missed the playoffs and the Brewers were well under .500 at 77-85. I would be much more willing to accept a line of argument along the lines of (a) Gonzalez plays in atrocious park for hitters and (b) he had all of that success with hardly any support in the lineup. Still, results are results, and I just don’t see how Gonzalez demolished Braun in the vote given their production.

Gonzalez: .298-31-101-87 with a .393 OBP, .511 SLG
R. Braun: .304-25-103-101-14 with a .366 OBP, .501 SLG

Speaking of Braun, I had him fourth on my ballot. It’s possible that I took too much of a “fantasy centered” approach in selection Braun for his 5×5 talents, but there is NO FLIPPING WAY that he should have finished behind Jayson Werth (52 points), Martin Prado (51 points) and Ryan Howard (50 points). I love Buster Posey (40 points), but he also shouldn’t have been ahead of Braun either. I don’t what is more shocking – Scott Rolen (26 points) finishing higher than Braun or Ryan Howard getting a second place vote for his worst full season ever? What cruel joke is being played here?

One final point. How in the world does Roy Halladay finish 6th in the NL MVP vote with 130 points when Adam Wainwright, who produced nearly identical totals this season (you can read about that situation in NL Cy Young and an Import) received just 12 points?

Someone has some explaining to do.

By Ray Flowers

The Case of Clayton Richard

Clayton Richard will play a large role in who wins the NL West. In what follows I will break down his 2010 performance and give my thoughts on what to expect from him moving forward.

Clayton Richard, SP, Padres
6’5″, 240 lbs.
Bats: L Throws: L
Born: September 12, 1983 (Lafayette, IN)
Drafted: Eighth round selection in 2005 by the White Sox

MINOR LEAGUE HIGHLIGHTS

2005 (Rookie, Single-A): He appeared in only 13 games tossing 51.1 inning after being drafted out of Michigan. He had a 2.85 ERA and 8.6 K/9 mark in Rookie ball before three middling appearances at Single-A (5.23 ERA, 1.45 WHIP).

2006 (Single-A, High-A): Was 6-6 with a 3.67 ERA over 18 appearances for Winston-Salem. His WHIP was poor at 1.52 as his K/9 mark dipped to 5.1. In four starts at High-A he was 1-3 with a 4.56 ERA and 1.48 WHIP.

2007 (High-A): His record was a mere 8-12, but he posted a solid 3.63 ERA over 161.1 inning (a minor league high). His K/BB was poor at 1.68 and he allowed almost a hit an inning (159) leading to a 1.35 WHIP.

2008 (Double-A, Triple-A): Finally he broke through. At Double-A he was 6-6 with a strong 2.47 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, numbers that improved when he moved to Triple-A when he went 6-0 with a 2.45 ERA an a 0.84 WHIP.

MAJOR LEAGUE CAREER

2008: He appeared in 13 games with the White Sox making eight starts. He had trouble getting batters out with a 6.04 ERA, 1.55 WHIP an a .303 BAA over 47.2 innings.

2009: He made 26 appearances with the Sox, including 14 starts, before he was dealt to the Padres. He went 4-3 with a 4.65 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in the AL before posting very similar numbers with the Padres over 12 starts: 5-2, 4.08 ERA, 1.47 WHIP.

PERSONAL REVIEW

2010 stats: 13-9, 3.71 ERA, 152 Ks, 1.40 WHIP in 196.1 IP

The most obvious place to start with Richard is that he is a totally different pitcher at home and on the road. Here are his 2010 splits:

Home: 3.16 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.01 K/9, 2.29 K/BB, .227 BAA
Away: 4.37 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 5.76 K/9, 1.66 K/BB, .307 BAA

At home he is a fantasy star, while on the road you would be better off starting a guy like Randy Wolf (yikes). No mere one year occurrence, here are his career numbers at Petco versus everywhere else.

Petco: 10-6, 2.86 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 8.02 K/9, 2.14 K/BB over 141.2 IP
Others: 14-13, 5.04 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 5.95 K/9, 1.67 K/BB over 255.1 IP

Those are some rather massive splits and they have to be a huge concern to fantasy owners.

As for his overall work this season there was some improvement. He pushed his K/9 rate up a quarter of a point to 6.97, while at the same time dropping his walk rate by seven tenths down to 3.48 (compared to his 2009 effort). At the same time, his 6.97 K/9 mark is slightly below the 2010 big league average of 7.11, while his K/BB mark of 2.00 is also below the big league average (2.17). Not really much goodness here, other than the slight growth he showed from 2009 to 2010.

As for his ability to keep the ball on the ground, his GB/FB was solid at 1.39, though that was worse than his career 1.45 mark while at the same time being a 3-year worst. His 19.2 line drive rate was pretty much league average, and his .314 BABIP was a dead on match for his career rate. The bottom line is that his BAA is right about where it should be (.266).

Richard was very, very good against left-handed batters with a 1.02 WHIP, a 3.15 K/BB mark, an a .225 BAA. However, he was sub par when facing righties with a 1.56 WHIP, a 1.76 K/BB mark, and a .281 BAA.

Finally, he continued an odd trend of being a better pitcher under the lights.

Day: 4.73 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 6.35 K/9, 1.59 K/BB
Night: 3.12 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 7.33 K/9, 2.30 K/BB

The bottom line with Richard is if you started him in a home game, that was played at nighttime, against a lineup filled with left-handed batters, you were almost guaranteed to find yourself with one dynamite performance.

PREDICTION

Richard is set to pitch on Friday night versus the Giants in what might be a must win for the Padres. I’m not going to predict how he will do in that outing other than to say that he has given up six or more earned runs in two of his last three starts and that he will be pitching on the road. If you read the report, you will know what to do if you are a Richard owner.

Long-term, until he learns to clean up his work on the road, Richard shouldn’t be counted on to produce numbers any better than we saw from him this season, which means he is nothing more than a depth option in standard mixed leagues.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July 16, 2010

(1) Justin Morneau to DL.

(2) Doug Davis to DL. Yovani Gallardo likely not to need minor league work.

(3) Edison Volquez to start on Saturday.

(4) Jordan Zimmerman closing in on possibly August return.

(5) Chase Utley has cast removed.

(6) Shin-Soo Choo hopes to avoid surgery on thumb.

(7) Josh Beckett may need one or two more minor league starts.

(8) Mat Latos to DL with side strain – from a sneeze?

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May24, 2010

(1) Carlos Zambrano tosses 73 pitches in simulated game. Hopes to return to rotation next week.

(2) Erik Bedard suffered a setback this weekend. Shocking.

(3) Homer Bailey, John Maine placed on the DL with shoulder inflammation.

(4) Mat Latos 0.93 ERA, 0.55 WHIP in his last four starts.

(5) Alfredo Simon hurts hamstring. Orioles may not have to turn to Cla Meredith and Will Ohman in 9th.

(6) Gordon Beckham to remain in the bigs.

(7) Mike Cameron will return to the Red Sox on Tuesday.

(8) With Clint Barmes struggling to hit, Rockies are interested in bring back Kaz Matsui.

By Ray Flowers