Fantasy Player Profile: Brandon Belt

In the fantasy game, if a first baseman hit 16 homers and stole 15 bases, you’d be interested right? Well it turns out those are the numbers posted by the Giants’ Brandon Belt during his two seasons in San Francisco. Due to the way he has been utilized by the team in those two seasons he’s only been able to accrue 598 at-bats meaning his 16/15 effort has pretty much been accomplished in a season worth of playing time. What can the youngster bring to the field this season? Will the Giants play him on a daily basis? Does he have a shot to go 15/15 making him a legit option to finish the year as a top-12 first sacker. To the digging we go.

How many first basemen went 15/15 in 2012? The answer is one – Paul Goldschmidt. Over the past five years how many seasons of 15/15 have been produced by a first baseman? The answer is four – Goldschmidt, Albert Pujols, Joey Votto and Lance Berkman. Clearly the ability to steal a base is pretty foreign to the first base position. That makes Belt an intriguing addition to a fantasy club. In addition to his 15 steals he’s only been caught four times for a solid 79 percent success rate. It’s hard to count on 15 steals from Belt, but if he plays every day double-digit thefts should happen.

‘But Ray, the Giants haven’t been playing Belt everyday. Why is that?’

First, the Giants have been a championship caliber team the past few years as you might be aware, so the club hasn’t wanted to give away at-bats to a youngster merely because he had talent. Second, Belt has a few holes in his game that I will address in a second. Third, Bruce Bochy, the Giants’ managers, prefers to go with capable veterans if he has them at his disposal. Heading into 2013 the Giants don’t have a veteran option to play first base, it appears that Brett Pill could function as the backup when healthy (he’ll likely miss the start of the season with a knee issue that required surgery), so it’s really Belt’s job to lose.

Belt hit .225 as a rookie but he upped that mark to .275 last season as he showed marked improvement in the second half when he hit .293 over the course of 72 games. Belt knows how to take a walk, his 11.4 percent walk rate last season is solid, so that should help him to maintain his average. He’s also done a great job with a 22.1 percent line drive rate with his .328 BABIP mark reflecting that of hard hit balls. However, as we know, both of those marks are elevated (19-20 and .290-.300 are usually the big league averages). Players can hold on to those marks, they set their own baselines as we also know, but they are still big numbers even though Belt posted a .392 BABIP and 27.1 percent line drive rate in the minors in 2011. Maybe Belt is one of those players who will settle in at a higher level? We need more data to formulate a concrete answer.

What we do know is that he strikes out a lot. In the minors in 2011 Belt struck out 48 times in 53 games. He then cam to the big leagues and struck out 57 times in 63 games. Last season he knocked a bit off that K-rate, down to 106 in 145 games, but 106 punchouts in 411 at-bats is a poor 22.5 percent K-rate. That level of whiffs could certainly have a detrimental effect on his batting average production.

What kind of power does Belt have? As a left-hander at AT&T Park, his home ball yard does him no favors as Park Indices the last three years tell us that lefties have a mark of 63 in the homer column. That’s 37 percent below the NL average. It’s a terrible place for left-handed power hitters to play. Not surprisingly, Belt has a total of 16 homers in 598 at-bats even though most talent evaluators this this is a 25 homer bat. For his brief career Belt owns a fly ball rate of 39 percent an a fly ball rate of nine percent. Both of those marks are pretty much league average. Oddly, Belt has been a better hitter at home during his career (.289/.368/.465), much better in fact than he has been on the road (.232/.321/.376).

Some other tidbits.

Belt swung at more pitches in the strike zone last season than the year before (many in the Giants’ organization want Belt to keep his eye at the dish while augmenting that with a little more aggression at times). Belt pushed his swinging mark at pitches inside the strike zone from 73 to 77 percent in year two as he seemed to embrace the clubs direction. Unfortunately his contact rate fell from 77 to 74 percent, pretty much negating the improvements first measure.

Belt is intriguing. He’s a young fella, he’ll turn 25 in late April, and as a former college star with a lot of hype, there’s a solid chance that his 2013 effort becomes a memorable one. Given his draft day cost, Belt would seem to be a solid option as a corner infield play in mixed leagues, even if his power and average don’t take the next step (thank the wheels). The Giants finally appear likely to play him on a daily basis, and with the growth he flashed in the second half the trends are encouraging, even if his home ball park might mute his overall production at the dish a wee bit.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Brandon Belt

In the fantasy game, if a first baseman hit 16 homers and stole 15 bases, you’d be interested right? Well it turns out those are the numbers posted by the Giants’ Brandon Belt during his two seasons in San Francisco. Due to the way he has been utilized by the team in those two seasons he’s only been able to accrue 598 at-bats meaning his 16/15 effort has pretty much been accomplished in a season worth of playing time. What can the youngster bring to the field this season? Will the Giants play him on a daily basis? Does he have a shot to go 15/15 making him a legit option to finish the year as a top-12 first sacker. To the digging we go.

How many first basemen went 15/15 in 2012? The answer is one – Paul Goldschmidt. Over the past five years how many seasons of 15/15 have been produced by a first baseman? The answer is four – Goldschmidt, Albert Pujols, Joey Votto and Lance Berkman. Clearly the ability to steal a base is pretty foreign to the first base position. That makes Belt an intriguing addition to a fantasy club. In addition to his 15 steals he’s only been caught four times for a solid 79 percent success rate. It’s hard to count on 15 steals from Belt, but if he plays every day double-digit thefts should happen.

‘But Ray, the Giants haven’t been playing Belt everyday. Why is that?’

First, the Giants have been a championship caliber team the past few years as you might be aware, so the club hasn’t wanted to give away at-bats to a youngster merely because he had talent. Second, Belt has a few holes in his game that I will address in a second. Third, Bruce Bochy, the Giants’ managers, prefers to go with capable veterans if he has them at his disposal. Heading into 2013 the Giants don’t have a veteran option to play first base, it appears that Brett Pill could function as the backup when healthy (he’ll likely miss the start of the season with a knee issue that required surgery), so it’s really Belt’s job to lose.

Belt hit .225 as a rookie but he upped that mark to .275 last season as he showed marked improvement in the second half when he hit .293 over the course of 72 games. Belt knows how to take a walk, his 11.4 percent walk rate last season is solid, so that should help him to maintain his average. He’s also done a great job with a 22.1 percent line drive rate with his .328 BABIP mark reflecting that of hard hit balls. However, as we know, both of those marks are elevated (19-20 and .290-.300 are usually the big league averages). Players can hold on to those marks, they set their own baselines as we also know, but they are still big numbers even though Belt posted a .392 BABIP and 27.1 percent line drive rate in the minors in 2011. Maybe Belt is one of those players who will settle in at a higher level? We need more data to formulate a concrete answer.

What we do know is that he strikes out a lot. In the minors in 2011 Belt struck out 48 times in 53 games. He then cam to the big leagues and struck out 57 times in 63 games. Last season he knocked a bit off that K-rate, down to 106 in 145 games, but 106 punchouts in 411 at-bats is a poor 22.5 percent K-rate. That level of whiffs could certainly have a detrimental effect on his batting average production.

What kind of power does Belt have? As a left-hander at AT&T Park, his home ball yard does him no favors as Park Indices the last three years tell us that lefties have a mark of 63 in the homer column. That’s 37 percent below the NL average. It’s a terrible place for left-handed power hitters to play. Not surprisingly, Belt has a total of 16 homers in 598 at-bats even though most talent evaluators this this is a 25 homer bat. For his brief career Belt owns a fly ball rate of 39 percent an a fly ball rate of nine percent. Both of those marks are pretty much league average. Oddly, Belt has been a better hitter at home during his career (.289/.368/.465), much better in fact than he has been on the road (.232/.321/.376).

Some other tidbits.

Belt swung at more pitches in the strike zone last season than the year before (many in the Giants’ organization want Belt to keep his eye at the dish while augmenting that with a little more aggression at times). Belt pushed his swinging mark at pitches inside the strike zone from 73 to 77 percent in year two as he seemed to embrace the clubs direction. Unfortunately his contact rate fell from 77 to 74 percent, pretty much negating the improvements first measure.

Belt is intriguing. He’s a young fella, he’ll turn 25 in late April, and as a former college star with a lot of hype there’s a solid chance that his 2013 effort becomes a memorable one (not to mention that he has flat out killed it at the dish this spring, even if he’s dealing with a back issue). Given his draft day cost, Belt would seem to be a solid option as a corner infield play in mixed leagues, even if his power and average don’t take the next step (thank the wheels). The Giants finally appear likely to play him on a daily basis, and with the growth he flashed in the second half the trends are encouraging, even if his home ball park might mute his overall production at the dish a wee bit.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Positional Review – First Base

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

2012 CATCHERS

2012 FIRST BASE Top-10

1  Miguel Cabrera
2  Albert Pujols
3  Joey Votto
4  Prince Fielder
5  Adrian Gonzalez
6  Mark Teixeira
7  Paul Konerko
8  Eric Hosmer
9  Gaby Sanchez
10  Lance Berkman

* David Ortiz and Billy Butler were listed at DH.

Cabrera won the AL Triple Crown hitting .330-44-139. The homers and RBIs were career bests, and this was his 7th season he’s hit at least .320. The just completed season was also a third straight year of 109 or more runs scored and his 9th straight triple-digit RBI season – every full season of his career.

Pujols started out horrifically and it marred his final numbers though he still hit .285 with 30 homers, 105 RBIs and 85 runs scored. This just might be the player he is now. Even so, he’s still one heck of a hitter.

Votto didn’t have enough at-bats to qualify for the batting title, but did you know that Votto had a better batting average (.337 to .330), OBP (.474 to .393) and OPS (1.041 to .999) than Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera?

Fielder was everything the Tigers hoped he would be in his first season in Motown. He hit a career best .313, had a 4th straight .400 OBP effort, hit 30 homers for the 6th straight year and drove in 108 runs.

Gonzalez had only 18 homers and 75 runs scored, but he still hit .299 and drove in 108 runs. Expectations are the bane of his existence right now. Not mine, I know what A-Gone is, but everyone else’s who seems to think he is a top-15 fantasy overall option. He just isn’t and never was.

Teixeira had gone deep 30 times with 100 RBIs every year from 2004-11. That streak ended as he was held to 24-84 in ’12. However, injuries limited him to just 123 games. If he had appeared in 150 games, a total he reached each year from 2008-11, his prorated effort would have led to 29 homers and 102 RBIs meaning he was still right on pace in the counting categories.

Konerko’s slash line was once again impressive at .298/.371/.486, right in line with his career numbers (.283/.359/.499). However, he failed to hit 30 homers for the first time in three years (26), and his RBI total of 75 was the worst number he had ever posted in a season of 500 at-bats.

Hosmer was a brutal disappointment. He still led AL first sackers in steals (16) and he was just one homer from a 15/15 season. Actually, that’s not awful for a second year player is it? Keep an eye on him in 2013.

Everyone in the world missed on Hosmer who’s outward appearance tanked in his second season, but my call on Sanchez was the worst one I made in over 500 ranked players (I don’t really blame players for being hurt, so it’s hard to find as much fault with the equally pathetic Berkman). After back-to-back seasons of at least 19 homers, 78 RBIs and 72 runs scored he was limited to 299 pathetic at-bats hitting .217 with seven homers, 30 RBIs and 30 runs scored.

Berkman appeared in just 32 games in his worst season, perhaps the last in his career. Even with all the injuries of late, the last time Berkman appeared in less than 120 games in a season was the 2000 season.

Hit: Paul Goldschmidt (#17)
One of those I suggested targeting outside the top-10 was Goldy. The NL’s HR/SB option at first, Goldschmidt socked 20 homers and stole 18 bases. Unlike Hosmer who hit .232, Goldschmidt posted a .286 batting average in an impressive first full season.

Miss: Gaby Sanchez

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September 26, 2012

(1) Chase Headley now a top-5 3B?

(2) Torii Hunter finds the fountain of youth?

(3) Daniel Murphy finishing strong.

(4) Jeff Keppinger finishing strong.

(5) Pedro Alvarez reaches 30 homers.

(6) Wilin Rosario having remarkable season. Will it continue in 2013?

(7) Paul Goldschmidt and Billy Butler massive weapons facing Tim Lincecum and Justin Verlander.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: May 31, 2012

Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Eric Hosmer and Brandon Morrow too much for Adrian Gonzalez? 14 tm mixed keeper.
– @strofaninKC

Hosmer is hitting .204 with a .617 OPS disappointing everyone who drafted him to be a starter at first base this year. At the same time he has hits in eight of his last nine games and finally seems to have found his bearings. As I’ve said many times, his walk rate is up while his strikeout rate is down from his rookie season (his BB/K has gone from 0.41 to 0.62), while his GB/FB ratio is also similar (1.57 to 1.75). Hosmer’s line drive rate has also crept back up to 17 percent, within shouting distance of his 18.7 percent mark from last season. Given all of that, there really is no way to explain how his .314 BABIP as a rookie has dipped to .208 this year, so there would seem to be a fair amount of room for growth here. Even with all his struggles this year Hosmer is still on pace for 19 homers and 82 RBIs, similar to the 19 and 78 marks he posted last season, albeit in 90 more at-bats.

Morrow has been dynamic this year. Through 11 starts he has a 6-3 record with 3.28 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. He’s also completely dominated batters at times with 62 Ks in 68.2 innings, and seven times in his 11 outings he has allowed zero or one run thanks in no small part to a significant reduction in his walk rate (last four years: 5.68 per nine, 4.06, 3.46 and 2.88 this year). Unfortunately he took a ball off his shin Wednesday night in what looked like a scary scene. Reports suggest that he has a good chance to make his next start, so perhaps he escaped a significant injury, but there is at least some uncertainty at the moment.

Gonzalez, and I’ve said and written this many times, was not worth a first round pick this year. His .338 average last year was .034 points higher than it had ever been and .046 points above his career batting average (that’s akin Adam Dunn hitting .289). As I also pointed out many times, despite the perception, Fenway is a tough park for left-handed power hitters to go deep, and Adrian’s performance backs me up: in 106 career games at Fenway A-Gone has hit a mere 12 homers (he has slapped 31 doubles around the barn). Despite all that Gonzalez has still woefully underperformed hitting less than Yonder Alonso (..279 to .274) with fewer homers than Ike Davis (five to four) and the same amount of RBIs as Justin Smoak (27), and that isn’t likely to continue.

I’d take a shot on the two players. Morrow’s health situation makes me a bit nervous, but if he’s healthy he should be able to push the duo above the value you will get from Gonzalez the rest of the way since Hosmer finally looks to be figuring it out.

Dan Haren and Lucas Duda for Edwin Encarnacion?
– @knkorte

Haren has been up and down this year but over his last two starts he has allowed just one run, struck out 21 batters, issued not a single walk, and won both outings. As a result his season long numbers all of a sudden look elite again: 8.29 K/9 (would be a 3-year high), 1.76 BB/9 (just below his career 1.88 mark), 1.15 GB/FB (career 1.19), 0.88 HR/9 (career 1.01). Face it, Haren is back to being the top-15 option on the hill that he was drafted to be. Amazingly consistent is this righty.

Duda has gone deep three times in his last six games nearly doubling his total of four homers in 43 games. He’s also hitting a mere .257 with 26 RBI and 20 runs scored while sporting a decent .346 OBP. To this point of the season he has been the definition of blah. Still, what he is currently doing would lead to a season of 20 homers and 80+ RBI, so if he can just get a few more balls to fall for hits, maybe get that average up to the .270 range, he wouldn’t be that bad a corner infield option in mixed leagues now would he (he’s only owned in 35 percent of Fleaflicker leagues)?

People get way ahead of themselves sometimes. Encarnacion is on pace for an epic season of .274-54-130-95-19 with a .920 OPS. Realize I used the word “pace.” Here are the facts. (1) EE has never hit 30 homers in a season. (2) EE has never had 80 RBI. (3) EE has never had 80 runs scored. (4) EE has never stolen 10 bases in a season. (5) EE has never had an OPS of .835. That’s a whole lot of “never” for a guy who has played seven previous seasons in the big leagues. It’s also worth mentioning that EE has appeared in less than 100 games in two of the past three seasons because of injures, and his current batting average (.274) and OBP (.336) are basically career average numbers (.265 and .334). There is no chance that he keeps up the current pace, none, the question is how much will he slow down?

I’d take the duo. Haren is a rock of epic proportions – you know exactly what you’ll get from him. Duda is no Encarnacion, though his “pace” this season would equate to what everyone would have expected from Encarnacion this season, but he should be an effective offensive player this season for the Mets. Don’t mistake me, I’m about as big an Encarnacion fan as there is out there, but what he has done to this point of the season just boggles the mind and portends a significant slow down the rest of the way.

Jed Lowrie or Rafael Furcal?
– @glh205

Lowrie is one of my favorite whipping boys. He seems to always have a three week stretch in which he looks like the second coming of Cal Ripken. However, he then follows it up with a three week stretch where he’s Johnnie LeMaster like. In the end, what we end up with is a slightly better than average hitter. Take his career slash line. In 969 at-bats it’s .256/.328/.419. What is the league average since his career started? How about .262/.329/.414. If we pro-rate his career work over 500 at-bats we end up with a season of .256-14-71-68-3. That’s a solid season for a guy who qualifies at third and shortstop, but it’s nothing to get excited about (Alexei Ramirez hit .269-15-70-81-7 last year and no one was falling all over themselves to draft him this year).

Furcal is hitting .333. The last time he hit .300 in a season of 100 games was 2006. Furcal has a .391 OBP. The last time he posted a mark that high in a season of 100 games was his rookie season of 2000. Furcal has a .460 SLG. The last time he posted a mark that high in a season of 100 games was — never. Why do I keep mentioning 100 games? That is the game total that Furcal has failed to reach in three of the previous four seasons do to injury. Is it reasonable to think that the 36 year old shortstop will be able to blow past that total with ease this year, not to mention doing so while performing at the highest levels of his career? There’s no disputing that there is significant talent with Furcal, and if he were to stay healthy an appear in 140+ games his production would be impressive given his hot start, but there is just so much here that sends up a big yellow cautionary flag with the Cardinals’ shortstop. Still, give me Furcal. I know there are a myriad of legitimate concerns with him, but he possesses more fantasy worthy skills than Lowrie at this point.

Paul Goldschmidt or Delmon Young in a re-draft heavy hitter league?
– @JHAWK707

In one of the most inexplicable situations in recent years, Goldschmidt simply annihilates Tim Lincecum. In 13 at-bats he has seven hits which include a double and four home runs (in 2012 he is merely 2-for-4 with two homers). Against the rest of the league he has hit .245 with eight homers in 283 career at-bats, pretty dreadful numbers for an “offensive force” that plays first base. We’re talking under 100 games of big league experience though, so this story clearly hasn’t been written yet. What is extremely heartening is that Paul has hits in 9-straight games as his average has gone up from .219 to .266 while his OP has climbed nearly a .150 points as well (.630 to .775).

Young, when he isn’t getting in trouble with the law, has been a disappointment on the field hitting .245 with a sickly .657 OPS. He still never walks, just seven free passes this year, and he continues to show nothing on the base paths (he has one steal in his last 167 games). There really is nothing to recommend Young at this point other than his pedigree and the fact that he owns a career .286 average and has hit worse than .284 only one time (though it was last year at .245).

I’d take Goldschmidt who has more power potential and for the fact that he has been the hotter hitter of late.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

The Fantasy Beat: H2H Matchup

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray are ready to find out who is the best host on the Fantasy Beat! They discuss the 16 team Mixed 5×5 Head to Head League they are both in and just drafted. Justin and Trevor compare their opening day rosters to see who will have an edge entering the season.

Listen to the Audio.

In Blank We Trust?

Should you trust Paul Goldschmidt to produce well enough to be a mixed league starter? Should you trust Josh Johnson to stay healthy? Should you have faith that Jayson Werth will rebound from a down 2011?

D’Backs GM Kevin Towers had this to say about Paul Goldschmidt the young, slugging first baseman who is generating a lot of hype in the fantasy game. “I would be happy if he did what he did last year and nothing more than that. If the power comes, great, but finding a way to get on base, if it is a walk or a base hit, I will take that from him.” Goldschmidt killed it last season blasting 30 homers in just 103 games at Double-A (this a year after he hit 35 homers in 138 games at High-A ball). Obviously, Goldschmidt is a power hitter, so it’s a bit foolish for Towers to have made the statement he did even though I understand he is doing it to keep the expectations in check for the youngster. Paul hit eight homers with 26 RBI in 48 games last season with the Diamondbacks. If he were to keep up that pace in 2012 we’d be looking at a first baseman hitting .250 with 25 homers and 80 RBI. Current ADP numbers show Goldschmidt going off the board 12th at the position, ahead of guys like Gaby Sanchez (17th) and Carlos Pena (18th). Given that all three of those players have produced a bunch of seasons of the ilk that we’re postulating with Goldschmidt as a hypothetical outcome for his 2012 effort, are you as surprised as I am to see him being taking 75 picks ahead of a guy like Carlos Pena?

Kelly Clarkson has a great voice. Always love hearing her belt one out.

Marlins’ manager Ozzie Guillen said that the Fish will monitor the workload of oft injured hurler Josh Johnson. “He will dictate for us what to do,” Guillen said. “What I want him to do is have confidence in us to make sure we know. So he can come to us and say, ‘Listen, I need a day.’ Can I miss a start? I don’t want him to go out there and be a hero…” Guillen then went on to totally contradict himself, hardly a shock, by saying the following. “In my mind, I have this man throwing 200 innings and winning 21 games. That’s in my mind.” Johnson is likely to, at least, be removed early from games in which the Marlins have a lead or are behind, so I have a hard time envisioning that he will make it to 200-innings this season. You don’t have to believe me – just look at his track record. Johnson has pitched 200 innings once in his career and since 2006, his first season as a starter, he has averaged 119 innings a season. To compare, since 2006 Erik Bedard has averaged 112 innings a season. Read that again. The last six years the always injured Bedard is averaging seven less innings a season than Johnson. Are you really still comfortable with depending on Josh Johnson this season?

I was having a debate with a friend the other day. I’m a big fan of plasma televisions since I think they gives a better, more natural color than LCD televisions. Plasma’s also handle motion a bit better and they are better with dark colors (i.e. black levels), so it’s a slam dunk that plasma is better LCD in my mind. That will end your brief foray into geek talk. Wait… maybe all my talk is actually geek talk? Is fantasy baseball really any less geeky? Could it be possible that I’m that guy, the one who can’t relate to people because he is playing with his Han Solo and Chewbacca action figures? Nah, can’t be me.

How bad was Jayson Werth last year? In a season of at least 300 at-bats he posted his worst batting average (.232), OBP (.330) and his second worst SLG mark (.389 – it was .374 back in 2005). As a result Werth, who had posted an OPS of at least .850 for 4-straight years, saw that number dip to .718 last season. Awful. At the same time he still hit 20 homers and and stole 19 bases. Do you know how many outfielders matched those totals last year? The answer is just 11. Moreover, the last four seasons Werth has produced an average of 27 homers and 18 steals. He’s on my list of guys you’ll want to target in 2012.

If you’re looking to play fantasy baseball, sign up with Yahoo Sports.

By Ray Flowers

First Base Mediocrity?

In years past, first base was the land of offensive titans. To a certain extent that still is the case with names like Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez etc. However, once you get past the elite options at first base, let’s say outside the top-10 or 12, there are a whole bunch of options that have similar outlooks for 2012. I’ll break down some of those players in today’s piece (for my rankings of first baseman, and all the positions, go pick up a copy of my 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide).

The old and boring: Lance Berkman, Carlos Pena, Carlos Lee
All three of these guys are certain to provide plenty of production in 2012, though all have seen their best days pass them buy. Berkman turned back the clock last year but there are questions. How will he do without Pujols? After two years of less than 140-games played, can he reasonably be expected to make 145 appearances again? Even if he stays healthy, where did last year’s production come from after two down years? Pena will hit his 28 homers and knock in his 80 runs like he has the past five years. He’s also failed to hit .230 the last three years and has gotten so bad against lefties (.133 in 120 ABs last year) that he may not face many of them in 2012. Lee also qualifies at outfield which is nice, and he has hat 19 homers and 80 RBI each of the past 12 years. Still, there’s not much going on here anymore.

The young and boring: Freddie Freeman, Gaby Sanchez
Freeman reportedly gained 15 lbs of muscle. Newsflash, you can’t gain 15 lbs of muscle in five months. Maybe he went on a diet of Bacon Milkshakes? Even if he did gain muscle he’ll have to learn to lift the ball more if he was to significantly increase his homer total (he’s HR/F ratio for his short career is under 35 percent, and that’s below the big league average of about 37 percent). Sanchez did see an increase in his walk rate last year, but he’s basically produced identical seasons back-to-back. H’s solid, but there likely isn’t another level left for the 28 year old.

The young and who knows?: Ike Davis, Paul Goldschmidt
Davis is young, has the pedigree, and his ankle finally appears to be healthy. Still, this offseason talk of him hitting .300 with 30 homers is completely the result of him playing in New York. I don’t think he’ll hit either of those numbers this season, but if healthy, the power production should be solid. Goldschmidt has a bright future. The D’backs will give him all the at-bats he proves he can earn, and with that he should also be a solid run producer.

The old and who knows?: Ryan Howard
I’m not a big fan. You can read why in his Player Profile.

The flat out who knows: Justin Morneau, Kendrys Morales
Both guys appear to be progressing, and the Twins and Angels are starting to grow optimistic. At the same time, neither is anything other than a depth addition with the hope that their previous levels of productivity return.
You can get solid production after the elite options are taken at first base, but it doesn’t appear very likely that you’re going to get difference making numbers after the first 10 or so options are off the board at the position.

You can check out how Fleaflicker has the first sackers ranked by clicking on the link.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 3rd, 2011

(1) Albert Pujols to play through hand injury.

(2) Troy Tulowitzki to play through pinkie injury.

(3) Stephen Strasburg – what should you expect from him?

(4) Jason Heyward still on bench.

(5) Paul Goldschmidt hits first big league homer.

(6) Yunieksy Bentancourt on fire – what?

(7) Josh Tomlin working on historic run.

By Ray Flowers