Draft Day Challenge, May 21

BaseballGuys.com. has partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter.

@MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Brian McCann
2. Salvador Perez

McCann loves to see Mike Pelfrey on the hill. In 39 at-bats the slugging catcher has hit .462 with two homers and 10 RBIs. Yowzahs.

Perez is batting .3008 on the year and has pushed that mark to .368 over the past week. He’s also hit .323 against righties this year. So what if he doesn’t have an at-bat against Bud Norris.

FIRST BASE
1. Albert Pujols
2. Jordan Pacheco

What was once a lock now seems like a risk. Pujols has hit .280 with two homers the past week, and he faces Aaron Harang who he hits pretty well (.311 with five homers and 15 RBIs over 74 at-bats).

After going superstar in Pujols (former superstar?), let’s go with a nobody in Pacheco. Jordan has a hit in his last three starts. Jordan is hitting .400 the past week. Jordan has hit .340 at home. He’s hit .500 (18 ABs) against the D’backs in his career. Jordan has four hits in 11 at-bats (.364) against Ian Kennedy.

SECOND BASE
1. Dan Uggla
2. Brandon Phillips

Uggla hammers Pelfrey hitting .406 with 11 RBIs in 32 at-bats which is enough for me to overlook the fact that he has one hit in his last 14 at-bats overall.

Go big or go home with Phillips. Not only has the guy knocked in 38 runners in 43 games this season, he’s also hit .300 with a homer and seven RBIs the past week. He’s gone 5/13 (.385) with two homers against Jonathon Niese.

THIRD BASE
1. Pedro Alvarez
2. Eric Chavez

Alvarez is only hitting .147 at home this season (and .201 overall), but he’s gone deep twice in the past week, is facing Matt Garza in his first start this season, and has gone 5-for-10 with a HR against Garza in their confrontations.

Chavez is hitting .343 on the year and he’s batting an unbelievable .571 with six RBIs the past week. He faces Jhoulys Chacin who he has never seen before on Tuesday.

SHORTSTOP
1. Yunel Escobar
2. Didi Gregorius

Escobar has a hit in eight of his last nine games, and he’s driven in six runs in his last four outings. He faces Ramon Ortiz, you know the old guy who we haven’t consistently seen take a turn in the big league since before Obama was elected President.

Gregorius is hitting like he never has in his life before, but we’re not worried about the fact that he has no chacne to keep that up the rest of the way. Didi has one hit in two at-bats against Chacin in his career but he has six hits in his last two games and has gone 8-for-13 against the Rockies this season.

OUTFIELD
1. Nate McLouth
2. Matt Holliday

How excited would you be about a player if I told you he had seven hits, including four doubles, in nine at-bats against a pitcher? That’s what has happened when McLouth has faced Phil Hughes.

Holliday has hit Edinson Volquez hard with a .412 average, two homers and four RBIs in 17 at-bats. Carlos Beltran has also hit .417 with five RBIs in 12 ABs against the righty.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Zack Greinke
2. Wandy Rodriguez
3. Jose Fernandez
4. Jerome Williams

Greinke looked sharp in his return from the DL and he gets to return to his former home in Milwaukee. He faces a Brewers team that has, get this, produced two hits against in him 34 at-bats. Two. He also faces Hiram Burgos which doesn’t hurt.

Wandy has been very good this season and in four home starts this season he’s gone 3-1 with a 1.35 ERA. He faces a Cubs team that isn’t very good offensively, and he’s also posted a 2.29 ERA and 1.04 WHIP against them in their last six meetings.

Fernandez has gone at least six innings in each of his last three starts allowing a total of five earned runs for the Marlins. He’s also struck out 21 batters in those 20 innings. He faces a Phillies team that is without Howard and Ruiz.

Williams has pitched well this year, there’s no way he can sustain that 3.05 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, but he faces the Mariners Tuesday. The entire Mariners team has hit .228 with one home run in 114 at-bats against Williams.
By Ray Flowers

Draft Day Challenge, April 16

Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out. With that, here are some of the better plays for Tuesday, April 11th.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

CATCHERS
1. Mike Napoli
2. Welington Castillo

Napoli has started to hit, .263 the past week, and he’s actually up to 11 RBIs in 12 games. Not many have noticed that. He’s facing Ubaldo Jimenez whom he has two hits in three at-bats against in their brief interaction.

The Cubs’ backstop doesn’t have an at-bat against Derek Holland, but he has five hits in his last three games, nine hits in his last seven games, is batting .368 at home this season and .364 on the young season.

FIRST BASE
1. Lance Berkman
2. Chris Davis

Berkman has seven hits in 11 at-bats against Travis Wood. Two of those hits are home runs. Berkman has also started out all kinds of hot with a .389 batting average and 1.111 OPS.

Davis has slowed a bit the last week, he’s only hitting .294 with two homers in that time. Still, he’s got a strong matchup facing off against Roberto Hernandez of the Rays whom he has five hits (one homer) against in 13 at-bats (.385).

SECOND BASE
1. Ben Zobrist
2. Jamey Carroll

Why would I suggest you start a guy who has only two hits in 10 at-bats against a pitcher (Jake Arrieta)? Check out the walk column. Zobrist has eight in 18 plate appearances leading to a .556 OBP. The hits are coming.

Carroll is boring an only someone you want to use if you are looking for a cheap play to fill out your lineup. He’s only got eight at-bats on the year, but he has had a lot of success against Jason Vargas in his career with seven hits in 17 at-bats (.412).

THIRD BASE
1. Pedro Alvarez
2. David Wright

Alvarez is hitting .073 on the season. It’s even worse of late as he is 1-for-16 the past week. So start him against Jake Westbrook. Hey, history says it’s a good move as Pedro has hit .579 with two homers, eight RBIs an a 1.600 OPS over 19 at-bats in the matchup.

Wright has gone deep three times in 13 at-bats against Jeff Francis. He’s also gone 6-for-13 in the matchup with four walks leading to a .462/.611/1.154 slash line.

SHORTSTOP
1. Yunel Escobar
2. Jhonny Peralta

Escobar has been dreadful this season hitting .050 on the road (20 at-bats) and .098 overall. Crazy to play him I know, but he breaks out of his slump tonight against Jake Arrieta who he has seven hits, including a homer, in 16 at-bats (.438).

Peralta has seven hits in 23 at-bats, a .304 average, and he’s gone deep twice against Aaron Harang who is trying to impress his new employers in Seattle. Oh yeah, Peralta is also hitting .370 the past week.

OUTFIELD
1. Jonny Gomes
2. Andrew McCutchen

Gomes has five hits in 12 at-bats against Ubaldo Jimenez who isn’t exactly tearing it up this season. Two of those hits for Gomes were bombs, and he’s knocked in five runs too.

McC has nine hits in 22 at-bats with a big fly and four walks against Jake Westbrook. Andrew is hitting .409 with a cool .500 OBP. Nice.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. A.J. Griffin
2. Chris Capuano
3. Doug Fister
4. Dan Haren

Griffin faces the Astros. That’s always a good reason to start a guy. He also has been very good at home in his career with a 4-0 record, 3.19 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. The Astros have also been averaging 10.1 batters per nine innings this season.

Capuano has a 3.34 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 7.3 K/9 mark in 70 innings against the Padres. The Padres are also hitting just .206 against lefties this season.

Fister has allowed a .212 average, .236 OBP and .346 SLG in 52 at-bats against the Mariners. He’s also allowed just one homer and walked one batter. Add in that he has a 2.77 ERA in two starts this season, and you’ve got yourself a solid starting option tonight.

Haren faces a Marlins team without Giancarlo Stanton. Haren has also struck out 10 batters, without issuing a single walks, in his nine innings this season.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September 26, 2012

(1) Chase Headley now a top-5 3B?

(2) Torii Hunter finds the fountain of youth?

(3) Daniel Murphy finishing strong.

(4) Jeff Keppinger finishing strong.

(5) Pedro Alvarez reaches 30 homers.

(6) Wilin Rosario having remarkable season. Will it continue in 2013?

(7) Paul Goldschmidt and Billy Butler massive weapons facing Tim Lincecum and Justin Verlander.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 22: Did We Learn Anything?

On Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late. Can you use this information to your benefit over at DailyJoust?

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Pedro Alvarez (+13, $108,000 in DailyJoust Salary)
Who leads NL third basemen in homers? Pedro Alvarez with 27. He’s also knocked in 74 runners, scored 56 times and, somewhat surprisingly, has posted a .250 batting average to this point of the season. That’s not a number to throw a party for, but after hitting .191 last year in a lost season of 235 at-bats, its a pretty impressive mark (he’s actually hitting .280 with a .888 OPS over his last 45 games). Alvarez is currently on one of his patented hot streaks as he’s racked up 14 hits in his last eight games while going deep four times with eight RBIs over his last five contests.

Derek Holland (+41, $341K)
Winner of his last three starts, Holland has allowed a total of eight runs over those 20 innings (3.60 ERA). Holland has also done a very good job limiting the free passes the past six times he has taken the bump walking a total of eight batters. Moreover, only once in 10 outings has he waked more than two batters. His WHIP is a solid 1.21, reflecting the lack of walks, but his ERA is still mighty elevated at 4.79. The main reason is the long ball. After being taken deep 22 times last year in 32 starts he’s allowed 25 homers in just 23 outings this season including 13 in his last nine starts. Once he starts keeping the ball in the yard his performance could take off.

Ricky Nolasco (+130, $285K)
I have an unhealthy connection with Nolasco, just like you did with that significant other in college who was all wrong for you even though kept going back because the “special time” (wink, wink) you spent together was enough to cover over the crazy (I kinda miss those days actually. Wait, did I just type that? Bad Ray.). I want to turn away from Nolasco, one of the more frustrating pitchers in the game to own, because his skills always say he should be better than the results. Just look at his last four starts: 2 ER, 5 ER, 5 ER, 0 ER (the last effort a nine inning shutout of the Nationals). Still, I have to put my bias aside and offer this note of caution – yes he looked spectacular last time out, but he’s also allowed four earned runs or more in seven of his last nine outings. How close to that fire can you get before your eyebrows are singed off?

Rickie Weeks (+17, $89K)
About frickin’ time Rickie. The older Weeks’ brother has 10 hits in his last four games as he’s also scored an amazing nine times. Over his last 30 contests he’s swiped five bags, scored 26 times and hit .295. That’s about as hot as most players ever get. Weeks certainly has more talent than about 90 percent of the players in the game, but maddening inconsistency is the phrase of the day when it comes to describing his production. Through 472 at-bats this season he’s hit .227 but he’s somehow still on the cusp of a 15/15 season (14/12) with 85 runs a definite possibility (he’s scored 68 times).

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Carlos Gonzalez (-29, $86K)
I’ve received a handful of queries from people wondering what they should do with CarGo. My advice, the same as always is – you play him. I know he hit .222 with one homer and two steals in 23 games in August, but you still play him everyday. Come on folks, the guys is hitting .309 with a .903 OPS on the year. He’s just four steals from a 20/20 effort for a third straight season. A strong finish could also net him 100 RBIs and 100 runs (83 and 82 right now). Yes it’s been uneven, but overall Carlos has been the superstar he has been the past two years.

James McDonald (-113, $195K)
I’ve finally had it myself with McDonald. Look, if you had told me five months ago that James would have 12 wins, a 3.90 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 147 Ks in 161.2 innings this year I would have sign ‘sign me up for that.’ Overall he’s been a fantastic waiver-wire add in mixed leagues. At the same time, he’s been abysmal of late. In two of his last four outings he didn’t allow a single earned run, but in seven of the other eight outings in his last 10 appearances he’s allowed at least four earned runs and five or more runs five times. The result is a second half ERA of 7.14 an a WHIP of 1.70 over 10 starts. That seems an awful lot more than just a minor hiccup, doesn’t it?

Anthony Rizzo (-31, $70K)
Rizzo has done a fine job adapting to big league pitching this season after last year’s disaster (.141 in 128 at-bats). Rizzo is hitting a solid .287 with 10 homers, 31 RBIs and 27 runs scored over 60 games (that’s a 150 game pace for 25 homers, 78 RBIs). However, he’s hit .169 with a .526 OPS against left handed pitching, he batted only .252 in August with a sickly .642 OPS, and he’s gone deep just two times in his last 32 games. He’s young and will certainly figure it out, but he’s struggling right now.

Jason Vargas (-42, $340K)
Just like with McDonald, five months ago a 13 win, 3.90 ERA, 1.18 WHIP effort would have been a strong season for Vargas (career 4.38 ERA, 1.31 WHIP with 10 victories being a season-high). However his last two outings have been disastrous as he’s allowed five homers, 11 earned runs (12 total) and last just 8.2 innings. A pathetic couple of outings or the start of an awful finish to the season? Given his career performance, and his skill set, some further regression is still quite possible.

DAILY JOUST CONTESTS

I’ve spent this article talking about baseball, which obviously isn’t at all odd given that this is BaseballGuys.com, but I’ve got a way that you can, in addition to playing fantasy baseball, also play some fantasy football. How can you do that? You can head over to DailyJoust and sign up for any of the myriad of games they have to offer. For those of you who are hardcore baseball fans like me they are still running daily fantasy games for you, well, daily. For those of you who are read to take on the gridiron, there are three pretty exciting games they have to offer. You can find a report on each at the following links (scroll down to the bottom of the articles for the explanations).

NFL FREE ROLLS
(Sign up for free, win cash)

CRUSADER LEAGUES
(New team each week all season)

GLADIATOR LEAGUES
(Eliminator Tournament)

To sign up for any game with DailyJoust simply click on the link just provided.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 13: Did We Learn Anything?

On Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late. Can you use this information to your benefit over at DailyJoust?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Pedro Alvarez (+12, $96,000 in DailyJoust Salary)
In his last four games he has gone deep twice and driven in nine runs, and for the month of June he drove the ball into the seats seven times while platting 20 runs. He’s still hitting a mere .231 on the season, and it just doesn’t appear like he is ever going to be able to be a positive producer in that category (even in June he hit just .262). Don’t worry about his leg issue. Apparently it was just cramps and he should be fine.

Clint Barmes (+11, $66K)
The guy has been a monumental failure this season, even in NL-only leagues. On the year Barmes has somehow used 225 at-bats to produce a mere .204/230/.307 line. Never really an All-Star caliber performer despite a couple of nice seasons, he was usually effective when in the lineup. Well, at least he is improving of late. After hitting .149 in April he batted .189 in May and pushed that mark to .247 in June when he had 11 RBI after knocking in just seven runners the first two months of the year.

Freddie Freeman ($19, $105K)
It seems like every week there is some new malady that he is being forced to overcome. Even with all his missed time he still has 10 homers and 47 RBI putting him on pace to better his totals from last year (21 and 76). He’s also produced at least one hit in each of his last six games as he’s knocked in six runs, scored six times, and seen his batting average climb from .247 to .266 in that time.

Yasmani Grandal (+14, $64K)
This switch hitter can sometimes get a little long with his hacks, but as we last week, when he lays into it the ball can fly (his first two big league homers came from each side of the dish). The weeks #1 pickup behind the dish, Grandal has a big enough bat that he could be able to largely keep Nick Hundley out of the mix the rest of the season (when you hit .166 over 193 at-bats like Hundley has, leading to a demotion to the minors, it may not be that hard to do).

Justin Ruggiano (+13, $91K)
Have you noticed that through 54 at-bats this season that Justin is blasting the ball to the tune of a .389 average, a .469 OBP and .704 SLG? Amazing is right. He’ll continue to be in the lineup on a daily basis until he slows down, Ozzie Guillen might have his issues but he’s no moron. Really just an NL-only option unless you’re desperate in a mixed league.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Yonder Alonso (-22, $60K)
Wait, wasn’t this guy supposed to be able to hit? Through 268 at-bats this season he has two homers and 18 RBI. Toss in 23 runs scored and two steals, and he has been one of the least productive full time performers in baseball. When you look over to the average column and find a .257 mark sitting there, thanks to a .218 mark in June, you’ll begin to realize just how disappointing his effort has been this year.

Zack Cozart (-21, $56K)
Every time this guys name is mentioned people get all excited. Why? Sure his 17 homer pace is nice for a shortstop, and if he scored 90 runs that would be great, but the guy just isn’t a good offensive performer. He’s hitting a sub par .245, and his .290 OBP is hideous. He’s only swiped two bases on the year, and despite the power he’s displayed he’s on pace for about 40 RBI. Don’t know why anyone get’s excited about that (at least over at Fleaflicker his owned percentage is pretty low).

Michael Cuddyer (-28, $70K)
Uh oh. Everyone’s darling in Colorado has hit the skids. He’s still on pace for 25 homers and 100 RBI, so the run production has been there, but he’s also seen his batting average dip to .256 and his OBP is .311 after a June he’d like to forget (.212/.257). Also a bit concerning is his 21 percent K-rate after that number has been under 18.5 percent each of the past five years and under 17 percent each of the past two years.

Chris Davis (-26, $60K)
After a horrific dry spell that saw him go eight games without a hit, Davis has rebounded a bit with four hits in his last three games. Even with the dip he’s hitting .271 with 13 homers, and those numbers, if doubled, would still be a solid season for a guy who may have fooled a few people as he was hitting .300 as recently as June 16th. He’s simply not a .300 hitter.

Kendrys Morales (-20, $60K)
Oh you dreaded hype machine. Everyone jumped on the bandwagon when Morales had a scorching week in spring training, everyone it seemed by me of course. Hey, the guy is on pace to hit about .280 with 17 homers, and those aren’t bad numbers for a guy who didn’t play a single game last year. Still, disappointments abounds with a a guy who is also on pace for a .750 OPS with 60 RBI.

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Beat – Are You Buying or Selling?

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray discuss players to buy and sell at this midpoint in the season. They will discuss guys like Giancarlo Stanton, Pedro Alvarez, R.A. Dickey, Mike Trout, Derek Holland, Adam LaRoche and Trevor Plouffe.

Listen to the Audio.

The Fantasy Beat: Jeff Erickson of Rotowire.com

Justin and Trevor are joined this week by Jeff Erickson from RotoWire.com. They discuss Bryan LaHair, Albert Pujols, Carlos Marmol, Tim Lincecum, punting categories, third base worries and who to possibly add (Ian Stewart, Jed Lowrie, Pedro Alvarez, Chris Davis, Chris Johnson)  and much more.

Listen to the Audio.

Mailbag: May 3, 2012

Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Should I deal Shane Victorino for Eric Hosmer ?
– @cooperkyle22

I always wonder why Victorino gets such little love in the fantasy game? I know he has no outstanding skill, so that must be the reason. He’s never hit 20 homers. He’s never knocked in 70 runs. He’s never stolen 40 bases. He’s never hit .295 in a season. Come to think of it, why do I like him? Oh wait, I know why, it’s because he is consistently productive across the board. From 2008-2011 an “average” Victorino season has led to a fantasy line of .281-15-63-96-29. Again, none of those numbers jump off the page, but how about we look at it differently. How many players in baseball met all those marks last season? The answer is three – Ryan Braun, Jacoby Ellsbury and Matt Kemp. Victorino fell short at .279-17-61-95-19, still a strong effort that only six other men could match (add in Dustin Pedroia, Justin Upton and Melky Cabrera).

Hosmer was talked up to the point this offseason that if he didn’t go .300-30-100 he was going to be viewed as a disappointment. When you look up after 23 games and see that he’s hitting .183 with a .638 OPS people are having to be dissuaded not to end it all. Let’s pull back though for a second an add some perspective. In 151 career games Hosmer has hit .276 with 24 homers, 92 RBI, 79 runs and 12 steals. How impressive a season would that be for pretty much any first baseman, let alone one that has appeared in just 151 games in his career? In fact, because of the added element of speed that he brings, would it surprise you to learn that not a single first baseman went .276-24-92-79-12 last season? Despite the struggles this year Hosmer has upped his walk rate by about 35 percent while cutting down his strikeout rate. He’s also upped his HR/F ratio to 19.2 percent (13.5 percent last year). It’s also a pretty safe bet that he won’t finish the year with a .162 BABIP. He’ll recover, he’s simply too talented not to.

I’m a big fan of Hosmer who was able to adjust from his struggles last year and rebound to perform, but I’m still going to hold on to Shane Victorino as much for his all-around production as for his history of high level play.

I hated drafting Mark Reynolds and yet I did it. Should I consider dropping him for Will Middlebrooks?
– @SFarup

You know what you get when you roster Reynolds. You get a guy who will be fortunate to hit .240, but one that should produce plenty in the counting numbers. In a highly overlooked situation where people focus more on what Reynolds can’t do than on what he can, it’s often been missed that over the past three years, 2009-11, Reynolds has hit more homers than any other third baseman, posted the second most runs at the position, and been third amongst third sackers in RBI. That’s top-3 in all three categories in case you missed that. However, we’re 20 games into Reynolds season and he’s hitting .136 with no homer, three RBI and four runs. Even I’m scared now. I don’t think he’s going to pull an Adam Dunn, but that has to be a concern at this point. On the plus side Reynolds is currently walking more often than ever before and his BABIP of .257 fits in nicely with his marks of .257 and .266 the past two years. His current line drive rate is also at a three year high. So why the struggles you ask? He hasn’t hit a single home run to boost his average which is a bit odd since he’s actually hit a few more fly balls than normal. He should rebound if given the time to do so (playing time is obviously a big concern at this point).

Middlebrooks was called up when Kevin Youkilis hit the DL with a back issue. Thought of as one of the handful of best prospects in the game at the hot corner, Middlebrooks had two hits in his first game with the Sox and that opened the floodgates for questions about the prospect. Middlebrooks is solid defensively and on offense he has power to all fields. However his K-rate has hovered around 25-30 percent in the minors, and that doesn’t speak to a guy who is going to be a solid average producer in the big leagues. He’s also displayed that solid pop without ever being a big time power threat, and he’s also not very patient at the plate. Don’t get me wrong the guy has a bright future, but at this point of his development he could benefit from some more time at Triple-A, which he figures to get. Why do I say that? When Youkilis is back with the Sox, where does Middlebrooks play? David Ortiz and Adrian Gonzalez will be the everyday DH and 1B, so what, the Red Sox will put Youkilis on the bench? That’s just not a likely scenario.

Short term you can give Middlebrooks a shot, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t tell you that if it was my team I’d hold on to Reynolds.

Evan Longoria replacement with empty slot: stick with my Daniel Murphy or pick up Pedro Alvarez, Chris Johnson or Chipper Jones?
– @mindmagi

It looks like Longoria will miss anywhere from 6-8 weeks with a hamstring injury, a crushing blow for his owners. Since I’ve gotten similar questions from so many people the past few days, here are a few thoughts on the potential replacements.

Murphy: A nice support player because he qualifies at first, second and third base, Murphy has gone 0-for-9 to drop his average down to .283. That’s certainly a mark he can sustain, he’s a career .291 hitter, but his lack of power right now is pretty brutal (no homers in 99 at-bats and just seven RBI). Murphy will never be anything more than a 15 homer bat, it’s just not his game, but when you don’t steal bases, don’t go deep, and don’t knock runners in, your roster spot is in question in a standard mixed league.

Alvarez: The perpetual underachiever is on fire right now. Over his last 10 games he’s doubled his average from .118 to .242 while socking four homers, knocking in 10 runners and scoring eight times. He still has a whopping 24 Ks in 66 at-bats, and just four walks on the season, but at least the hot run of late gives us some hope that he might finally be starting to live up to expectations, even if there are still significant holes in his game.

Johnson: When you get four hits, including two homers, and six RBI in one game people take notice. Hitting .311 with 14 RBI through 23 games for the Astros, Johnson is a pretty blah option. Not only does he have more Ks (24) than games played, he’s also walked only three times leaving him with a career BB/K mark of 0.16 which is so hideous that the appropriately damning adjective simply slips my mind. Johnson, best case scenario, is a .270-20-80 type of effort, but that doesn’t mean he will reach any of those three totals this year.

Jones: Always productive – when he is on the field. Chipper has repeatedly mentioned to the press that his knees are shot, and that it’s a struggle to make it out onto the field every night. Chipper has four homers and 14 RBI through 16 games, and that .273 average is obviously sustainable, but you have to set your sights with him on a replication of last years efforts, nothing more (.275-18-70 in 126 games).

Mariano Rivera and Jesus Montero for Albert Pujols, what do you think?
– @wbischof

Andruw Jones once fell on his face going from an All-Star to after thought in one season. Adan Dunn did is last year. Mark Reynolds may be on his way to doing it this year. Albert Pujols will not follow that path. It’s possible that Pujols will end the year with the worst numbers of his career, he’s been so awful for 25 games that there is a very real possibility that will happen (.208-0-5-9). Still, are you really going to throw out 11 years of excellence over one bad month? If you are I will not be joining you. Does anyone out there honestly doubt that Pujols could hit .300 with 30 homers and 100 RBI in his remaining 130 games? I’m not saying he will, but I still think it’s possible.

Rivera, given the lunacy that has occurred in bullpens across baseball, has to be one of the most valuable players in fantasy baseball. All he does is go out there, year after year, and produce (check out his efforts over at Fleaflicker). Nothing has changed there at all. Montero has appeared in eight games at catcher (seven starting), so there might still be some leagues where he only qualifies at DH which limits his value. If he qualifies at catcher how can you complain about a guy who is on pace to hit better than .290 with more than 20 homers? You can’t. Still, the guys has 19 Ks in 23 games and he’s walked just two times. Eventually an approach like that is bound to catch up to anyone making Montero hard pressed to be someone you should be looking at hitting .300 this year.

If you’re one of those people who is stuck at catcher – you’ve been rolling out there Kurt Suzuki and Geo Soto – and if you’re bullpen was at one point anchored by Andrew Bailey and Drew Storen, then you could hold on to the duo. If that isn’t the case I’m all about adding Albert Pujols. The breakout is coming.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Positional Review – Third Base

You remember back to March when I gave away all my position player rankings for free, right? For those of you who want to revisit my greatest hits, here’s where you would go to get all my rankings for hitters – 2011: BBGuys Hitter Capsules.

I’m nothing if not accountable, so I’ll review my top-10 predictions at each position as well as point out my biggest “hit” outside of the top-10 and my biggest “bust.”

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

2011 THIRD BASE Top-10

1 Evan Longoria
2 David Wright
3 Alex Rodriguez
4 Ryan Zimmerman
5 Aramis Ramirez
6 Mark Reynolds
7 Michael Young
8 Adrian Beltre
9 Pedro Alvarez
10 Casey McGehee

Longoria hit a terrible .244, and his steal total fell by 12 down to three, but he still powered 31 homers and drove in 99 runs thanks to a furious second half finish (20 homers and 57 RBI in 72 games). He’s plenty young enough (26) to put it all together and run off some massive seasons.

Wright had hit at least 25 homers with 100 RBI and 85 runs scored in five of the last six seasons, so his 14 homers, 61 RBI and 60 runs were obviously a massive disappointment. Thrown in a career worst .255 average, from a guy who has hit .300 in his career, and you were rightly ticked off if he was on your squad.

Rodriguez lost his record streak of 30-100 seasons at 13 as he appeared in only 99 games which limited him to 16 homers and 62 RBI. In the end it was the worst season of his career as he also scored a career worst 67 runs with another career worst in his OPS (.823).

Zimmerman appeared in only 101 games limiting him to a .289-12-49-52 line, but if we give him 550 at-bats at that pace he would have hit .289-17-68-72 which wouldn’t have been too awful given all his starts and stops. He needs to stay healthy.

Ramirez hit two homers in April and May. Two. He then blasted 17 the next two months, hit .377 in August, an in the end produced yet another terrific season for the Cubs (.306-26-93-80-1). The cream almost always rises to the top.

Reynolds always gets dogged for the terrible average (.221) and all the strikeouts (196), but he should get some credit to. He was second at the position with 37 homers (Jose Bautista had 43), and he was one of only four third baseman with 25 homers, 80 RBI and 80 runs scored and one of three with 30-80-80 (Bautista and Beltre).

Young only played 40 games at third, but at the dish he was his normal fantastic self. Young hit .338, the best mark of his career, and also posted a career best 106 RBI. Toss in 88 runs scored and he gave his owners exactly what they were hoping for and a little bit more.

Beltre was injured and appeared in only 124 games, but he still powered 32 homers, knocked in 105 and his a strong .296. He was everything the Rangers hoped he would be when they signed him.

Alvarez was an abject failure. He appeared in 74 games and, amazingly for a guy who was the second overall selection in 2008, he hit .191 with four homers in 235 at-bats. To think, many people chose him over Mark Reynolds.

McGehee wasn’t a choice I loved. In fact, I warned in The Guide that he was the only third sacker who had 85 RBI who failed to score 75 runs in 2010, and I also pointed out how his minor league track record didn’t match his offensive fireworks with the Brewers. I should have gone with my gut and ranked Pablo Sandoval, who I had 11th, ahead of McGehee.

Hit: Jhonny Peralta #14
Obviously he was more useful as a shortstop eligible player, but with all the injuries at third Peralta could have played there all year and done very well. Peralta hit 21 homers, knocked in 86 runs, scored 68 times and hit a career best .299. All-around it was a fine year, and in context of all the injuries at third, it was a top-10 effort.

Bust: Everyone
DL stints seemed a prerequisite at third this year. Here are the games played totals of some of the preseason elite: Longoria (133), Wright (102), Arod (99), Zimmerman (101) and Sandoval (117).

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: July 26, 2011

Here are the answers to some of the questions that I have recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Drop Jemile Weeks for Desmond Jennings ROTW?
– @jbpowellal

Weeks has provided the A’s with a spark on offense. He’s hitting a strong .307 through his  first 40 games, and he’s used his speed to swipe 10 bags. He has little power, he hasn’t gone deep once and his SLG is a poor .405, but he slaps the ball and runs. One part of his game that he hasn’t flashed yet is his patience at the dish as his current 4.6 walk rate is about a third of the number he posted at Triple-A this year. It would be nice to see him put a few more balls into the ground, his 40 percent ground ball rate isn’t great, but overall this has been a good start to his career.

Jennings is a better talent than Weeks as he can do a few more things on the offensive side of the field. Jennings, surprisingly, showed some power at Triple-A this year with 12 homers in 89 games, while flashing his elite speed. He has also done a solid job all throughout his minor league career at getting on base (his OBP in over 500 minor league games is .380). He’s up with the Rays, finally, and he has looked phenomenal in a couple of games. The real question at this point is can he stay healthy?

Many will argue that Weeks is the preferred option because of his position (second base). I’m still going in the other direction even though Jennings plays a position that’s filled with talent (outfield) because he is just so talented.

What’s your take on Alex Cobb. Is he just fill in or does he have long term value? 
– @mercier_five

Cobb is part of a current six man rotation with the Rays. Personally I think the choice to go in that direction is a terrible one, but it’s the way it is in Florida right now. The biggest concern I have with Cobb is his catastrophic K/9 drop. Well over a K per inning guy at Double and Triple-A the past two years, he’s currently at 5.14 through seven big league starts. His BB/9 rate is also worse than the league average as well at 3.43. So how is he having success? It’s all in the grounders as 56 of the batted balls put in play off him have been rug burners. He’s much more Derek Lowe and Fausto Carmona than he is James Shields right now.

As for his long-term value Cobb, a 4th round draft pick in 2006, has risen through the minors on the Rays’ pitching plan, and as we’ve seen that often leads to a lot of success. Cobb was a strikeout per inning arm in the minors, but he’s failed to keep that up in the bigs. The hope is that he doesn’t turn into Wade Davis who has done the the same thing. As a big league starter he’s likely to settle into the #4 role on a good team meaning that he will be hard pressed to ever be a difference maker at the big league level.

What’s your take on Pedro Alvarez now that he’s back?
– @TrillaTrav

Alvarez, the second selection in the 2008 Draft, hit 16 homers with 64 RBI in 95 games with the Pirates last season. Heading into this year nearly every expert in the fantasy game had Alvarez in their top-10, and even those that didn’t were admitting that Alvarez clearly could reach that level. He simply hasn’t. Alvarez has hit .211, posted a .289 OBP and is sporting a sickly .305 SLG (his OBP last year was .326). Alvarez ended up injured and demoted, though he finally seemed to have found his stroke. In 18 games on the farm he hit .325 with a .439 OBP and .538 SLG leading to a recall with the Pirates.

Alvarez has the ability to hit 30 homers while driving in 100, a rate that he was basically performing at last season in the second half (13 homers, 53 RBI over his last 71 games). He’ll need to cut his K-rate down, its over 30 percent this year, to reach that level of success. With all the problems at third base this season, Alvarez is well worth taking a shot on in mixed leagues as there’s always a chance that he’ll recapture the success he had last season in the second half – he certainly has the talent to do it.

IF Heath Bell gets traded, do I drop any of these for Mike Adams – Izzy, Axford, Marmol, Perez, Santos?
– @hedmohave

Last week I broke down the outlook of Mike Adams in the July 19th Mailbag piece. Let me put it this way – his skills are superb, sublime, scintillating in fact. He deserves to be rostered in all but the smallest leagues right now, even as a setup man. If he ends up the closer for the Padres, his value would skyrocket. As for the other arms, here are some thoughts.

Jason Isringhausen: Give him credit for his comeback. The Mets appear intent to sit on him and let him mentor Bobby Parnell leaving Izzy as the Mets’ closer. Jason hasn’t thrown 40 innings since 2008, didn’t pitch in the majors last season, and is 39 years old. He also is giving up a huge 53 percent fly ball rate while his 1.88 K/BB ratio is terrible.

John Axford: Good for the Brewers in doing the right thing, i.e. leaving Axford in the 9th and using Francisco Rodriguez as the setup man. Axford continues to impress with a K.9 rate of 11.27, which when combined with a 54 percent ground ball rate results in him being ideally suited to long-term success in the 9th inning.

Carlos Marmol: The Cubs’ righty had a brutal week, but since then he’s back on track with four scoreless outings. Owner of a devastating arsenal, Marmol is striking out more than 11 batters per nine innings, and he is back as the closer. It’s a bumpy ride, but the results are usually solid. If his BABIP of .324 regresses back to career norms (.254), he would be in line for a strong finish.

Chris Perez: He has been struggling a bit all season despite converting 22 of 24 save chances. A K/9 per inning arm, Perez has seen that number dip to 5.80 this season, which when complimented but his 4.54 BB/9 mark makes him one risky option on the hill. That regression has been on full display the last two weeks as his ERA has gone from 2.23 to 3.03 over four outings.

Sergio Santos: He’s being used cautiously by Ozzie Guillen as Sergio has now appeared in 5-straight games in which he hasn’t lasted an inning despite allowing not a single hit and just one walk. He has been strong all year (3.07 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 12.07 K/9) and remains the arm to own in Chicago, even with the odd usage.

Would I drop any of these arms to add Adams if the deal goes down? I wouldn’t even wait that long. I’d make the move to add Adams right now at the expense if Isringhausen.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.