Buy or Sell – NL Version

photo © 2008 David Ohmer | more info (via: Wylio)

I’m always getting questions about what to do with certain players who are over/under performing, so today I’ll break it down for you by discussing the National League players I’m asked about all the time (to see my AL list, click on Buy or Sell – AL Version).

* Buy/Sell designations are based on a mixed league with 12 teams.

Pedro Alvarez: I’m telling you, this guy will be a 30-100 man at some point of his career. You can bank on it. Every scout in the world will tell you that Pedro has an elite power bat. Now there are concerns about his ability to keep his weight under control, whether his glove is good enough for third base, and if he will ever make enough contact to be more than a .270-ish hitter, but the power is an elite tool – period. People expect so much out of youngsters anymore. I mean, this guy has 242 at-bats at Triple-A and just 455 in the majors. Are we really going to label a guy a failure based on 700 at-bats against elite level competition? Two things. (1) Ramirez has 17 homers and 71 RBI in 455 at-bats with the Pirates. (2) He’s always been a slow starter. Don’t forget that he hit six bombs with 27 RBI over his last 28 games last year so it remains wise to be patient here.
BUY

Chris Carpenter: The sky is clearly falling here. I mean the guy has been awful with one victory and a 4.32 ERA through eight starts. Oh how some numbers can deceive. Last year Carpenter posted a 3.22 ERA with a xFIP of 3.70. This year his ERA is more than a run higher, but guess what, his xFIP is lower at 3.63 (xFIP tells you what a pitchers ERA should be based upon the events that he can control). In each of Carpenter’s  eight seasons with at least 175.1 innings pitched his BABIP has never been higher than .309, and he owns a career mark of .297. That would seem to suggest that his current .327 mark is a bit driven by bad luck, especially since his K/9 and BB/9 marks are pretty much spot on his career levels. If you can buy low do it – the only real concern is if he can take the ball every five games.
BUY

Kyle Lohse: In seven starts this year Lohse has allowed more than one earned run just three times, and five of the seven outings its been two or fewer earned runs. Clearly he is as locked in as he could possibly be. You already know I’m going to say he can’t keep it up, right? (1) He hasn’t thrown 120 innings since 2008. (2) His current K/9 rate of 4.99 would be his worst mark since 2005. (3) He’s the owner of a 2.74 career BB/9 mark. Currently he’s at 1.72. (4) His career HR/9 mark is 1.12. He’s halved that so far at 0.52. (5) His career left on base percentage is 69.9 percent. Currently it’s 79.0 percent. I could go on and on but here’s the gist of it – Lohse is performing, across the board, at rates he has never been able to sustain. His 2.24 ERA and 0.86 WHIP simply aren’t sustainable with his K/9 rate, and his lack of anything other than an average GB/FB rate of 1.19. He could continue to do this, it’s possible, but his skills and history (a decade of work) suggest now is the perfect time to sell.
SELL

Aramis Ramirez: He’s hitting .925 with a .352 OBP, numbers that are slightly better than his career marks of .282 and .340. There’s no issue there. The concern is obviously with his lack of pop since he has only one homer. Will that lack of power continue? It sure seems unlikely to. At 33 years of age his power stroke should still be there. While he’s not Adam Dunn, Ramirez is a pretty established power bat in his own right. In eight of his nine seasons in which he has accrued 450 or more at-bats Ramirez has gone deep 25 or more times (he had 18 homers in 522 at-bats in 2002). Ramirez currently has a 42.5 percent fly ball rate. Each of the past five years that mark has been 44 percent or higher. In addition to the dip in fly balls, he just isn’t converting them into bombs right now with a sickly 2.1 percent HR/F ratio. That will not continue since each of the last eight years he has produced a mark of at least 11.6 percent. I’m not giving up on Ramirez, and neither should you.
BUY

Jose Tabata: Mired in a hideous slump that has seen him got 9-for-67, Tabata’s hot start to the year is a distant memory at this point. Here’s what I see. First, Tabata has doubled his walk rate from last season helping to push his BB/K mark up to 0.74, a solid number (the big league average is usually around 0.50). I also see that he’s continued to hit the ball on the ground almost identically matching his 59.4 percent mark from last year at 60.2 percent. Given his game, that’s ideal. However, the issue is that he simply hasn’t been able to produce hits given his line drive rate of 9.7 percent. There’s no way that mark stays that low this season, no way. Last year Tabata produced a 16.1 percent mark, still slightly below average (19-20 percent), but that’s alright because his wheels will allow him to turn more grounders into hits than most. This is an ideal time to add a player with 30 steal wheels who has a reasonable chance of matching his career batting average (.283) over the next four months.
BUY

By Ray Flowers

Random ADP Thoughts

l probably touch on plenty of Average Draft Position data over the coming month plus as we get ready for the start of the regular season. Today, I’m gonna look at the data from Mock Draft Central and point out some of the more vexing things I’m currently seeing.

Is Andre Ethier really a top-11 outfielder like he is being drafted (ADP of 40)? The dude has a beautiful swing, you’ll get no argument from me there, but there are some serious concerns with me if you are thinking of going with Ethier in the top-40 or so picks. (1) He’s only had one season of 25 homers. (2) He’s only had one season of 85 RBI. He’s only had one season of 400 at-bats in which he hit .295. (4) He’s never stolen more than six bases. So let’s boil that down. How much would you pay for a .295-25-85 season with six steals? Aubrey Huff hit .290 with 26 homers, 86 RBI and seven steals last year and his ADP this year is 111. I’m just saying.

Rickie Weeks is going off the board eight picks before Ian Kinsler and 70 before Kelly Johnson. Huh. I know Kinsler is an injury waiting to happen, but really, is he any more of a risk than Weeks? In three of the his six seasons Weeks has failed to appear in 100 games. Kinsler has appeared in at least 100 games in each of his five seasons. Let’s compare the performance of each man per 162 games.

Weeks: .253-22-67-113-23
Kinsler: .281-24-83-115-28
Johnson: .269-18-70-91-11

I snuck Johnson in there at the end to show that he is likely the best option of all three if you are talking about a return on your investment. I wouldn’t put his upside anywhere near to the other two, but there could be value in selecting him five rounds later. By the way, I’m not sold on anyone taking Weeks before Kinsler.

I get why people are scared off from Mark Reynolds, I mean the dude hit .198 last year. But should he be going off the board at pick 129? Over the past three years, here is how Reynolds ranks amongst third sackers: he is first with 104 homers, fourth with 284 RBI, second with 264 runs scored and third with 185 extra base hits. Are you really sure he isn’t a better value than the Pirates up and coming slugger Pedro Alvarez who is going off the board with an ADP of 88? Alvarez hit only .256 last year, Reynolds is .242 for his career, and Alvarez struck out 119 times in just 347 at-bats. I really don’t see too much difference there.

Alex Gordon is barely cracking the top-400 right now, and with good reason after he hit a mere .215 in 242 at-bats with the Royals last season. Still, the guy was the #2 overall selection in the 2005 Draft, he’s just 27 years old, and I think the Royals will give him a legit shot at everyday playing time making him a terrific AL-only option with some mixed league appeal (if you grab him really late). Don’t overlook that Gordon punished Triple-A pitching last year to the tune of a .315-14-44-59-7 line in a mere 68 games. It’s now or never time for him, and he knows it.

Roy Oswalt led the NL in WHIP last season (1.03) and he is going off the board as the 27th starting pitcher with an ADP of 101. Let’s compare, for giggles, his work last season to that of Zack Greinke who is going off the board in the top-10 amongst starters with an ADP of 51.

Oswalt: 13-13, 2.76 ERA, 193 Ks, 1.03 WHIP, 3.51 K/BB in 211.2 IP
Greinke: 10-14, 4.17 ERA, 181 Ks, 1.25 WHIP, 3.29 K/BB in 220 IP

Surprised? I’ll give Greinke a boost in value since he will now be in the NL, and he clearly is the one of the duo who has more “upside,” but really, does that justify the fact that he is going off the board 50 selections ahead of Oswalt? Not in my mind.

If you have any questions drop me a line at rflowers@fanball.com, and make sure you follow me on Twitter at the Baseball Guys’ Twitter account.

By Ray Flowers

Do Sleepers Exist?

There was an article posted today at Fanball called 2011 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers. First off, I have a huge problem with the term “sleeper.” It’s so ingrained in our minds that when it is left out of a draft guide or preseason preview we get tons of emails asking how we could be so stupid as to not including such an article in our coverage.

Honestly though, what good is a “sleeper” article? In 1994 there was a point to it, but that time has long passed. In the “old days” before the internet blew up, data was hard to come by. Only those that really attempted to ferret it out were able to find it. However, information is everyone at this point. You can get it online for free – just like you do here at BaseballGuys – and you can find information everyone on the internet if you want to pay a few bucks. There are also shows on television dealing only with fantasy baseball, and I host a daily radio on Sirius/XM Radio where we talk about fantasy sports three hours a day (5-8 PM, EDT). The point is, with the data available in virtually every medium you could think of, there really are no true “sleepers” anymore. By draft day every player has been analyzed and worked over, so much so in many instances that a guy who was a sleeper in early January ends up being drafted in the 10th round in your mixed league draft in late March.

I think the best we can do is to put forward a list of players who are likely to be undervalued on draft day, though again, that value is completely arbitrary and will be determined totally based upon how those in your league value the players (if you buy Daric Barton in New York he might cost $7, but try purchasing him for less than $10 if you live in California).

Here are the names that were on the “sleeper” list I refered to at the top of the piece. In what follows I give my own thoughts on each (each writer took one player and gave his reasons why that guy should be a draft day target in the original piece).

Pedro Alvarez: He hit a combined 29 homers last season between Triple-A and the majors, but he also struck out a shameful 187 times. With such a poor approach at the dish, Alvarez is much more Adam Dunn than he is Ryan Zimmerman. Still, he has a shot to be a top-10 third basemen.

Mike Aviles: In his two healthy seasons he has hit better than .300. Do you know how many .300 seasons that Chase Utley has? Try two. Aviles seems capable of going 10/10 as well, and though his run producing is suspect, only nine players hit .300 with 10 homers and 10 steals in 2010.

Homer Bailey: He still needs to work on his secondary stuff, but Bailey pitched really well over his last 10 starts with a 3.55 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 59 Ks in 58.1 innings. He seems locked into a starting role with the Reds, and despite seeming like he has been around forever, Homer is just 24 years old.

Jay Bruce: He is a huge breakout candidate after his dynamic finish (.338-15-29 over his last 43 games) in 2010. However, that finish will have Bruce on everyone’s list of breakout candidates in 2011. There is no disputing that the youngster could be a huge run producer, and he has seen his walk rate improve each year, but the strikeouts are a concern.

Lorenzo Cain: He hit for average and flashed speed in 43 games after hitting .317 with 26 thefts in 84 games in the minors. Cain has hit .291 in the minors in his career, but it’s hard to envision him continuing to hit so well in a full season of work. The Royals believe in him as he was part of the package of players they received for Zack Greinke.

Starlin Castro: He was awful on the base paths with a 56 percent stolen base rate, and he closed out the year on a down note hitting .232 over his last 23 games. Someone will likely pay top dollar for a guy who might be merely solid in 2011 though he did hit .300 last year while not being able to legally pull back on a bottle of Jack.

Chris Coghlan: While his production was down in year two you can take solace in the fact he closed strong hitting .312 over his last 42 games. As a result, he is slated to start the year as the Marlins leadoff hitter. The knee he injured in a post game celebration should be fine for the start of games, but I worry about his ability to handle center field, the position he is currently slated to play.

Aaron Hill: This is the player in the review I referenced. Here is what I wrote.

“Let me construct this rather obvious case in three steps. (1) Even though he ‘struggled’ in 2010, Hill was tied for fourth amongst second basemen in homers with 26. He has 62 homers in the last two seasons, second most at the position (Dan Uggla has 64). (2) Hill has 176 RBI over the past two years, third most at second base. Clearly he is an elite power option. (3) From 2006-09, Hill hit at least .286 three times and he possesses a career .270 average. However, he hit just .205 in 2010. What in the hell happened? Hill owns a career line drive rate of 18.5 percent, slightly below the big league average (20 percent), but somehow that number dropped to a mere 10.6 percent last year. That’s roughly the equivalent to Adam Dunn hitting about 21 homers. Hill had the absolute worst LD-rate and BABIP (.196) in baseball, and there is about as much chance of that happening again in 2011 as there is of me getting a mid-season call up to the Giants. If he maintains his power from the last two years, he’ll go deep 31 times with 88 RBI, while matching his career .270 average would given him one hell of a season. Hello, Dan Uggla.”

Jonathan Niese: He made 30 starts for the Mets posting a 4.20 ERA. However, that’s somewhat deceiving; Niese had a 3.76 ERA after 28 starts before he was tanked in his last two outings (*12 ER in 8.1 innings). His numbers were sort of Doug Davis-ish with a 1.46 WHIP, 148 Ks and 62 walks in 173.2 innings. If he can locate his pitches, and keep the walks down, his ERA could easily be in the 3′s in 2011.

Jordan Zimmerman: A potential ace who is coming back from Tommy John surgery, Zimmerman is the classic “sleeper” who everyone will talk up to the point that he won’t be drafted like one. He should be 100 percent this season, and with a 8.76 K/9 and a 3.05 K/BB over 122.1 big league innings his future is definitely looking plenty bright.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 14, 2010

(1) Interleague play returns on Tuesday.

(2) Trade talks heating up – Roy Oswalt, Ty Wigginton, Conor Jackson, Mike Lowell etc.

(3) Jeff Suppan returns to Cardinals.

(4) Pablo Sandoval continues to struggle, hitting .234 last 39 games.

(5) Matt Cain new Giants “ace”?

(6) Chad Qualls likely out in favor of Aaron Heilman at closer for D’backs.

(7) Pedro Alvarez on verge of being called up for Pirates.

By Ray Flowers