Player Profile: Clayton Richard

The last two healthy seasons for Clayton Richard have led to 28 wins with 14 in each season (2010, 2012). Richard has also posted an ERA under 4.00 each of the past three years. He’s coming off a season with a career-high in innings pitched (218.2) and a career best WHIP (1.23). That certainly sounds like enough to vault Richard up anyone’s rankings when considering how to evaluate rank pitchers for the 2013 season. So why is there so much trepidation when the name of Clayton Richard is brought up in fantasy circles?

Let’s begin by looking at what Richard does well. His chief skill is his ability to induce grounders and to keep the ball off the fat part of the bat. For his career Richards has an 18.9 line drive rate which is on the low side of average. Over the past four seasons that number has never reached 20 percent so he’s consistently been average or slightly better than that. Richard has also induced grounder after grounder. In his career his GB-rate is 49.8 percent, and the last two seasons that number has been over 50 percent including a career best 54 percent mark in 2012. Obviously with this type of batted ball distribution on his resume his GB/FB ratio is going to be good, and it is. For his career the mark is 1.60 and last seasons 1.93 GB/FB ratio was the 7th best mark in the National League. That’s pretty impressive work.

At this point the other skill that Richard has, an I would bet you that 95 percent of the people reading this already know what I’m going to type next, is Petco Park. Obviously that’s not a “skill” but you get the point. The fact is that Petco is a hard place to drive the ball, an a pitcher like Richard who keeps the ball on the ground is going to have a ton of success in a yard that will help to cover up mistakes he makes up in the zone. Now that wasn’t exactly true in 2012 as his HR/9 mark swelled to 1.28, a career worst, but you can blame that on a 50 percent increase in his HR/FB ratio from 10 percent (career) to 15 percent last season. That number should normalize in 2013 by the way. It is also true that the majority of that homer damage was done on the road (1.44 per nine) versus at home in San Diego (1.03 per nine). Moreover, Richard continued his relative domination at Petco continuing the trend that makes him, at worst, an excellent streaming option when he pitches at home.

2010 (home): 3.15 ERA, 1.22 WHIP in 17 starts
2011 (home): 2.30 ERA, 1.11 WHIP in eight starts
2012 (home): 3.02 ERA, 1.10 WHIP in 14 starts

For his career Richard has made 45 starts at Petco Park. He’s won 19 of those games posting a 2.82 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. For some perspective on those numbers the third place finisher in the NL Cy Young Voting, Gio Gonzalez, finished the 2012 season with a 2.89 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. The fact is that Richard is actually a must start, no matter what the format, when he starts at home. Of course, the flip side is that he isn’t exactly the best road starter in the world, an in fact his career numbers are on the road are painful to look at: 23-23, 4.92 ERA, 1.53 WHIP in 382.2 innings. Hello Rick Porcello.

So, I can sum up this piece before I finish it with some of the simplest advice I have ever given. You’re crazy if you don’t start Richard at home. You’re crazy if you start him on the road. How is that for some insightful analysis?

Before leaving you for the day, a quick review of the rest of the things you need to know with Richard.

His strikeout rate is deplorable. The last two years he hasn’t even punched out five batters per nine innings and his career mark if 5.69, around two batters below the league average. The lack of punchouts severely dims his fantasy outlook. On the plus side he did something last year that he had never done as well before – he threw strike after strike. For his career he’s walked just slightly more than three batters per nine innings. Last season he dropped that mark down to 1.73 walks per nine, literally half of his total from 2010-11 (the mark was 3.46 in those two seasons). We certainly need more than just one season at that level to say he’s now that pitcher, but it’s an extremely heartening development for a guy whose perfect game would be 27 pitches with all 27 outs generated on ground balls.

Richard is nothing exciting to look at, and he comes with severe limitations, but that doesn’t mean you can’t reap a substantial return on your investment with him if you deploy him properly.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Carlos Quentin

Carlos Quentin is a bit of an enigma. He possesses a nice power bat (4-straight 20 homer seasons), strikes out less than other top level sluggers (just a 15.9 percent K-rate), but never seems to be able to put it together because of one injury after another. Tired of the ups and downs, and looking to go with youth, the White Sox dealt Quentin to the Padres for pitchers Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez (neither arm is an elite level prospect). Can the California born Quentin, who was a 3-sport performer at University of San Diego High, be the middle of the order bat that the Padres need?

Quentin’s main bugaboo is ill health. He’s been a “full-time” player for four years, but he’s never appeared in more than 131 games (don’t forget that includes the ability to function as a DH). As a result, he’s averaged a mere 426 at-bats over those four seasons. Obviously the fact that Quentin has been unable to stay on the field consistently is a major concern if you are planning on Quentin being a centerpiece of your fantasy squad in 2012.

The second major issue with Quentin is the fact that, despite having ample power, that he’s going from one of the best homer hitting havens in the game to one of the worst. “He’s got huge power, so he has hit a good number of homers to right, right-center,” GM Josh Byrnes said. “It’s a tall order for any player in Petco, but from center to the left-field foul pole, they’re gone in any park.” That might be so, but let’s not gloss over the facts here Josh. According to Park Indices, Petco comes in at 8th in the NL for right-handed hitters during the 2011 season, an over the past three years that ranking is also 8th. While that might be better than you thought given Petco’s reputation, it was still two percent below the league average the last three years while U.S. Cellular Field, Quentin’s old home, was 38 percent better than the American League average. That’s a massive difference and is should give you pause with Quentin.

The third issue with Quentin is that, honestly, he’s just not that good of a hitter. Quentin has a career batting average of .252. Moreover, he’s hit better than .254 in just one of his six big league seasons. That number doesn’t figure to improve in the NL playing half his games at Petco.

The fourth issue for Quentin is that he has no base stealing speed. Only once has he stolen as many as four bags, and he’s swiped just 16 bags in his career (616 games).

So what do we have with Quentin? Let’s review.

He has shown a propensity to be injured.
He’ll play half his games in a pitcher’s park.
He’s a below average big league hitter in terms of batting average.
He has no stolen base speed.

I’m not suggesting that Quentin has no value. Quentin has hit at least 20 homers in 4-straight seasons with a career best of 36 in 2008, and per 500 at-bats in his career he’s averaged 29 homers and 91 RBI. Remember though Quentin has never, not once, had 500 at-bats in a season. He’s also produced those numbers in the offensive environments of the the desert (the Diamondbacks) and the Windy City (the White Sox). Given his limitations, his home ball yard, and his record of ending up on the trainers table, you would be wise to view Quentin as nothing more than a mid round outfield gamble in mixed leagues. There’s always a chance that some home cooking will inspire him (for example I know I type much better when I’ve had a nice home cooked meal of SPAM and cheese), but in my mind he simply cannot be trusted to be an elite power bat given the particulars of his situation in 2012.

By Ray Flowers

ADP Riser: Adrian Gonzalez

I get it. A big bat gets paid bazillions of dollars, leaves the worst hitting park in baseball, and that transforms the player into a dynamic offensive weapon. I certainly buy that to a point with Adrian Gonzalez, but it seems like most of my fantasy brethren have been hitting the hookah pipe a bit too frequently when it comes to estimating Gonzalez’s fantasy value in 2011.

Over at Fanball in a well written article by Greg Ambrosius entitled NFBC: The Rise of A-Gone, Gregg points out how voters are loving them some Adrian Gonzalez because of the move out of Petco and to Fenway Park. Greg gives the data simply: before the Trade Gonzalez went 27th or 29th in the 15 team mixed league drafts for the NFBC. After the trade to Boston that number jumped to 20, 18, 16, 14 and 11.

Does that meteoric rise make any sense? Greg does a great job in the piece laying out the statistical reasons that seem to be behind the rise in Adrian’s ADP numbers. Greg also points out a rather interesting number that some may not be aware of – in each of the past four seasons Gonzalez has gone deep at least 20 times on the road (he never hit more than 14 at home). Does this mean he is a lock for 40 homers? I think “lock” is too strong a term for a guy who has hit 40 homers only once in his career. Why? I think it will surprise many people to learn that Fenway wasn’t exactly a homer heaven for left-handed batters last season. Seriously. Here are the Park Indices number for left-handed hitting batters, in the homer category, for 2011 for Petco and Fenway (100 is neutral, under 100 favors pitchers, over 100 favors hitters).

Petco: 64, 16th in the NL
Fenway: 86, 9th in the AL

The truth of the matter is that Fenway really doesn’t boost the power numbers of left-handed batters at all with a mark of 88 the past three years, 12th in the American League. Shocked aren’t you?

Beyond that, there are two major issues that concern me.

First of all, Gonzalez had shoulder surgery and while everyone believes he will be at or near 100 percent this season it’s quite possible that he will not be allowed to swing a bat until March. Do you really want to spend a first round pick on a guy who will only have a month of hacks under his belt before games count?

Second, what about the wealth of talent at first base in 2011? If you look at the Fanball Staff Rankings you will notice that I’m the lowest of the ranking members in terms of my placement of Gonzalez as I have him at 9th at the position. Is that too low? I’ll freely admit that it might be, by a lot. Still, I’d take Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Mark Teixeira and Ryan Howard ahead of him with no problem. I think you have to also toss Prince Fielder into that mix even with some of his struggles last season since he still had 32 bombs and posted a .401 OBP (Gonzalez was at 31 and .393 by the way). Kevin Youkilis is also coming back from surgery but I might be convinced to move him behind the Red Sox new first baseman. Finally, the move of Adam Dunn to the White Sox would appear to give him a legit shot at 45 homers if not more. After all, U.S. Cellular Field in Chitown is first in Park Indices for homers the past three years, and fourth for left-handed batters.

Add all of that up and I’m gonna let someone else take Gonzalez with the 16th pick. I’ll happily wait 20 selections to roster Adam Dunn.

And finally, in the I told you so file…

Edgar Renteria was disrespected, or whatever he said, when the Giants offered him a 1-year deal for $1 million. Guess he had a right to feel that way. It looks like he got a deal from the Reds for $3 million. I don’t know if that makes him seem smart, or if that means the Reds are just lost?

By Ray Flowers