Player Profile: Phil Hughes

Phil Hughes, ah Phil Hughes. If you’ve followed my work for any period of time you’ll know my thoughts on Hughes. Here are some of my previous statements about the Yankees’ hurler in his Player Profile from last season (written on December 27th, 2011).

“I will not be targeting Hughes in any league in 2012. In fact, I’ll be hard pressed to end up with him on my roster unless I’m in an AL-only league… Over his last 150 innings he’s been a bad pitcher, it’s just as simple as that, and for his career the numbers show a replacement level arm at work.”

Has my opinion changed after what looks like a successful 2012 campaign?

In 2010 Hughes went 18-8 for the Yankees. He slumped to 5-5 in 2011 as injuries limited him to 14 starts. In 2012 Hughes returned to prominence winning 16 games against 13 loses. Of course those win totals are impressive, but you know me, wins don’t impress me too much. Let’s look at his skills.

For his career Hughes has a 4.39 ERA. The AL average during his career is 4.22.

For his career Hughes has a 1.29 WHIP. The AL average during his career is 1.36.

For his career Hughes has a 7.58 K/9. The AL average during his career is 6.89.

For his career Hughes has allowed 8.74 hits per nine. The AL average during his career is 9.05.

For his career Hughes has a 2.64 K/BB. The AL average during his career is 2.13.

For his career Hughes has a 0.75 GB/FB. There isn’t a single team in the AL with a mark lower than 1.04 since 2007.

Some up, some down for Hughes, but overall there isn’t a lot there that makes him stand out substantially from an average AL arm the past six years.

Let’s look a bit closer and take a look at his effort since the start of 2011. Over those 49 games (46 starts), Hughes has gone 21-18 with a 4.67 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 7.17 K/9, 2.90 K/BB. Other than an uptick in his K/BB ratio, again, nothing here paints Hughes as anything more than a league average arm.

‘But Ray, he was really good in 2012.’ Was he though?

Hughes: 4.23 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 7.76 K/9, 3.59 K/BB, 0.68 GB/FB
AL Avg: 4.09 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 7.41 K/9, 2.45 K/BB, no AL team below 1.14 GB/FB

Again, I ask you, other than the K/BB ratio, was Hughes really that good last season?

Let’s compare Hughes to himself.

2012: .552 WIN%, 4.23 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 7.76 K/9, 3.59 K/BB
Career: .591 WIN%, 4.39 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 7.58 K/9, 2.64 K/BB

So if Hughes isn’t substantially better than average, and his 2012 effort was similar to his career numbers… eureka. You have it. Hughes is a fairly average hurler.

To be fair, an I’ve mentioned this a few times, Hughes flashed an impressive 3.59 K/BB ratio. If he could maintain that level I’d have a lot more hope for Hughes. Problem is that mark is nearly a full batter above his 2.64 career mark. The main reason it was so high is that his walk rate fell to 2.16 per nine. That mark was 3.25 in 2011, 2.96 in 2011 and 2.88 in his career. He’s never been such a dart thrower before. If he can continue that… but that’s a big if.

The other factor that will likely limit Hughes no matter what is that sky high fly ball rate. For his career Hughes has a 46 percent fly ball rate that has led to a 0.75 GB/FB ratio (never better than 0.89 in a season). When you allow that many fly balls homers are sure to follow. For his career he has a league average 10.0 HR/F ratio, but the extra fly balls he’s allowed has still saddled him with a 1.25 HR/9 mark for his career, a quarter of a point high compared to the league average. It’s not a totally out of control number but it’s certainly elevated, and that doesn’t play well in New York where fly balls tend to end up in the seats.

I’ve probably painted a worst case scenario here. At the same time, I’m paid to keep it real. And the truth is that Hughes pitched well last year, not great of course, and that for his career he’s been a solid arm but one that is nowhere near capable of leading a fantasy squad. Hughes is fine to add to your club in 2013, he’s not likely to hurt you, but understand that you shouldn’t be sucked in by his win total, or the NY on his hat – he’s simply not that impressive a hurler, though he is a solid support arm for any fantasy club.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

I hate to say I told you so, oh who are we kidding I love nothing more than to tell you I told you so, but Henderson Alvarez has stunk this year. As I wrote back on April 2nd in his Player Profile: “Henderson Alvarez had “no chance” of being a top-75 SP in 2012…He also doesn’t miss enough bats putting him at the mercy of his defense and some random forces.” Amazingly for a guy who throws 93 mph with a wicked high 57.3 ground ball rate, Alvarez has still been just as bad as I suggested he would be five months ago. He’s gone 9-12 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.46 WHIP with, wait for it, 62 Ks in 168.2 innings. That’s a 3.31 K/9 mark. You could TRIPLE that and he still wouldn’t be striking out 10 batters per nine innings. Given his stuff, that’s an unbelievably pathetic number.

It looks like the Cards will roll out there Chris Carpenter next week. Can’t have set up a better return for him either as it looks like he will be on the hill to face the Astros (more on them below). Carpenter will still have to make it through a 90 pitch simulated game, so he’s still no lock to return from his neck/shoulder woes, but the clubs is encouraged.

Felix Hernandez seems to think that he is Dice-K all of a sudden. King Felix allowed seven runs Thursday night and now has a 9.00 ERA and 2.13 WHIP over his last three starts. What do I always say? Sample size people. He’s been unabashedly awful his last three starts but over his last 12 outings he still owns a 2.63 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. It’s not what anyone really wants to hear, but the truth is that things are just returning to “normal” with his performance.

Torii Hunter is hitting .300 this year, .309 to be precise. If you try to check the old memory banks for the last time that Hunter hit .300 you’ll be searching for a while since he has never hit .300 before as a big leaguer (he was one hit short in 2009 as he finished the season at .299). It’s not often that a guy sets a career best in his 16th season, but it certainly seems possible for Hunter given that he’s hitting an out of this world .351 over his last 56 games. Overlooked every year on draft day, Hunter just goes out and produces year after year (he’s batting .309 with 15 homers, 76 RBIs, 72 runs scored and nine steals).

The Houston Astros are 46-98 and have been outscored by their opponent by a major league worst 206 runs. No other NL team has been outscored by more than 117 runs (the Cubs). That is all.

Phil Hughes tossed 7.1 shutout innings against the listless Red Sox Thursday to up his season long record to 15-12. I know he’s a Yankee so everyone gets all excited about him, but consider these points. (1) His 3.96 ERA is only slightly below the league average of 4.09. (2) His 7.61 K/9 is only slightly better than the league average of 7.39. (3) His 1.25 WHIP is only slightly ahead of the league average as well (1.31). He’s solid, but you can put the ticker tape parade on hold.

Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde meet Jason Kipnis. Everyone’s fantasy darling at second base hit the All-Star break with a .277-11-49-53-20 line. In the 52 games since he has hit .216 with three homers, 18 RBIs, 21 runs scored and just seven steals in 13 attempts. He’s gone from being Ian Kinsler to Ronny Cedeno.

Lance Lynn stepped into the rotation for an injured Jake Westbrook an allowed one run over six innings Thursday (Westbook could still miss a couple more weeks of action so Lynn may see a start or two more down the stretch). With the effort he lowered his ERA to 3.95 on the season while picking up his 15th win. He’s been a remarkable waiver-wire add this year even if he has a 4.97 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over his last 54.1 innings.

Joe Nathan blew it on Friday night as he allowed three runs without getting an out for the Rangers.  He only has a 2.83 ERA, 10.99 K/9 and 30 saves in 32 chances. Loser.

I saw Raiders of the Lost Ark last night in IMAX. Pretty amazing I must say. It’s the first time I’ve seen it in the theaters – I was an HBO junkie as a kid. The film holds up really well with the passage of some 30 years.

It’s way too little, way too late, but Michael Young has finally started to hit a bit. In 12 games in September he has posted three homers and 10 RBIs. Too little too late as I stated, but maybe he can give ya something down the stretch.

HITTERS – FRIDAY
Carlos Lee vs. Bronson Arroyo: .321-3-11 in 53 at-bats
Evan Longoria vs. CC Sabathia: .378-5-9 in 37 at-bats
Vernon Wells vs. Brice Chen: .333-3-7 in 21 at-bats

HITTERS – SATURDAY
Robinson Cano vs. James Shields: .417-4-12 in 72 at-bats
Casey Kotchman vs. Anibal Sanchez:  .471-1-3 in 17 at-bats
Michael Young vs. Jason Vargas: .400-1-6 in 30 at-bats

PITCHERS – FRIDAY
Aaron Laffey vs Red Sox: .230/.302/.287 in 87 at-bats
Chris Sale vs. Twins: .183/.231/.283 in 60 at-bats

PITCHERS – SATURDAY
Edwin Jackson vs. Braves: .207/.292/.319 in 116 at-bats
Shaun Marcum vs. Nets: .196/.281/.301 in 56 at-bats

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: August9, 2012

I’m Ray Flowers, co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account in my never ending attempt to replace myself by explaining to everyone how I evaluate players thereby making myself obsolete.

Drop disappointing Eric Hosmer for a legit power threat of Manny Machado in 16 team non-keeper points league?
– @linas2000

Manny Machado is one of the top-10 prospects in baseball. Still, it’s very questionable for the Orioles to be calling up the 20 year old at this point. First, though a shortstop, the club is going to play him at third base where he has played all of two games. Second, he’s just 20 years old and owns a mere .263/.343/.428 slash line in 218 minor league games. Third, let’s just put it – is he ready for this? One GM doesn’t think so according to Jon Heyman. “I still think it’s too early to recall him. Just because he’s better than Wilson Betemit doesn’t mean it’s the right move for the kid.” To me, this move smacks of desperation by the Orioles.

Hosmer is hitting .227 with one home run in his last 26 games, and he’s just not getting it done despite the fact that we all expect him to one day. Given that your league is 16 teams you could take a shot at catching lighting in a bottle with Machado if you need to do something significant to move up in the standings. I don’t think Machado’s going to have a Josh Rutledge like impact but at this point Hosmer  isn’t getting it done.

Zack Greinke has become a matchup pitcher this year. Am I wrong?
– @keithsweat96

All depends how you look at it. On the year Greinke has a solid set of ratios (3.74 ERA, 1.26 WHIP), has nearly a K per inning (137 in 142 frames) and his 3.81 K/BB ratio is impressive. In three starts with the Angels he has a 5.68 ERA, 1.63 WHIP and a terrible 1.88 K/BB ratio. He’s also posted a poor 5.23 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over his last five starts with a 2.60 K/BB ratio. The answer depends on the strength of your pitching staff and your place in the pitching categories. If you wanted to be careful with starting Greinke I could totally understand that, but if you wanted to continue to roll with him that might also make sense as well. Manage those categories.

12 team 5x5roto. Amazing I’m asking you this, but is Jon Lester dropable at this point?
– @Only1dREWSTAR

It’s a fair question to ask given his up and down work, though I’m still inclined to say that it would be a mistake to let him go (the folks over at Fleaflicker seem to agree). I certainly wouldn’t feel compelled to start him right now though. In five of his last six outings he’s allowed at least four earned runs, and over his last five starts his ERA is 8.79 and his WHIP 1.57. He’s also gone 0-4 and only won five games all year. The real answer to your question is who you would be picking up off waivers to take his roster spot. There might be a hidden gem or two on your waiver-wire wire even in a 12 team league, so it’s worth investigating.

Aaron Hill or Neil Walker – which one has more value ROTW? Looking more for Hits/Runs/RBI.
– @atlbravesfan_84

Let’s compare season long work.

A. Hill: .293-13-47-53-8 with a .823 OPS and 119 hits
Walker: .292-13-65-57-7 with a .811 OPS and 115 hits.

Well that didn’t help at all since they are both identical performers this year. How about we look at who is trending and take a look at the last month.

A. Hill: .269-2-7-14-1 with a .700 OPS and 25 hits
Walker: .294-7-24-15-0 with a .944 OPS and 25 hits

Again, a virtual toss up.

I’d slant things slightly toward Walker given that he is a slightly performer better right now and has been a run driving force for two months now.

Would you drop Phil Hughes for Matt Harvey?
– @ThatsAndyG

I feel like a broken record here. I don’t know how many times I can tell people that I’m not a fan of Hughes. Sure he has his moments, but at the end of the day he’s just… average. The 11 wins and 3.61 K/BB ratio are strong totals, but the 4.10 ERA and 1.28 WHIP are league average stuff. He’s also a total disaster with homers given that his GB/FB ratio is brutal at 0.67 this year and 0.75 for his career. The guy is always going to be homer prone in that ball yard in New York. Plus, remember this. Over his last 49 outings covering 281.2 innings Hughes is 23-20 with a 4.76 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 and 2.46 K/BB. All of that is league average stuff.

My only real concern with Harvey is that the Mets plan on shutting him down around 165-170 innings. He’s at 126.1 innings right now.

Who will have more saves ROTS: Casilla, Balfour, Myers, Janssen?
– @BodyPillow_Pimp

I really just wanted to answer a question from “Body Pillow Pimp.” Great user name. As for the question, honestly, how am I supposed to know the answer to this one? I have no idea who will produce the most saves. We need to get past the point where we are “guessing” about who will have more saves. You shouldn’t be rostering players on a guess, you should be rostering them on skill and opportunity.

Santiago Casilla: Has a blister, a 5.40 ERA, a loss and two blown saves in his last 11 outings. Jeremy Affeldt and Sergio Romo are more likely to get the save chances ROTW.

Grant Balfour: 0.90 ERA/WHIP last 10 outings. Meanwhile, Ryan Cook has four blown saves an a 8.10 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over his last 10 outings. The A’s still keep giving Cook the ball in the 9th though.

Brett Myers: He’s appeared in nine games with the White Sox and doesn’t have a single save chance to his name.

Casey Jannsen: He’s 14/15 this year in save chances, has a 2.11 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 44 Ks in 42.2 innings.

Should be pretty obvious who the best choice is (hint: it’s the last guy I mentioned).

Oh, an in case you were wondering what my answer is for the self asked question from my Twitter account last year – Batman or Jason Bourne ? – I’m going against the grain and saying Jason Bourne. Batman is amazing, especially in the Christopher Nolan/Christian Bale incarnation, but Batman’s success is with the gadgets money buys. Bourne improvises and gets by more on his wits than anything fancy pants he pulls out of a utility belt.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 7-10 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

Fantasy Beat: At the Break

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray break down some guys to be grabbing in keeper and dynasty league and talk about a few players and what they expect from their 2nd half.

Mike Trout, Andrew McCutchen, Justin Upton, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Ivan Nova, Hiroki Kuroda, Phil Hughes and more…

Listen to the Audio.

ABA 2011: A Review

Yesterday in ABA: The New WHIP, I laid out my six year old idea now of how to better evaluate pitchers performance than the standard that is used in virtually every fantasy league – WHIP. Instead I suggested that Average Bases Allowed (ABA) – recorded by taking Total Bases + Walks divided by Innings Pitched – gives a truer understanding of the level of performance for a hurler than WHIP (you can read about the in’s an out’s of ABA in the above link). Today, I’ll list for you some of the leaders in ABA from the 2011 season based on innings pitched. Before I get to that a quick review of ABA.

ABA = (TBA + BB) / IP

The lower ones ABA the better, but it doesn’t read the same was as WHIP. Whereas the average WHIP last season was 1.32, the league average ABA of all pitchers in 2011 was 1.86.

Second, here is a “key” you can employ to understand the ABA totals.

Below 1.50: elite level performance
1.50-1.70: All-Star level
1.71-1.89: Solid major league hurler worthy of counting on in fantasy circles
1.91-2.10: Barley holding on to an effective role as a fantasy starter.
2.11 and up: Might as well line up a pitching machine

With that, here are some of the the hurlers that caught my eye broken down into innings pitched groupings.

2011 ABA LEADERS – Minimum 160 IP

1.31 – Clayton Kershaw
1.32 – Roy Halladay
1.35 – Justin Verlander
What a shock. The three hurlers who are widely regarded as options 1-3 in 2012 finished 1-3 in ABA in 2011.

1.43 – Cliff Lee
1.44 Cole Hamels
The Phillies had three of the top five arms according to ABA.

1.45 – Doug Fister
He didn’t beat himself with walks (37) or allow many long balls (11), a key in ABA.

1.59 – Brandon McCarthy
Only issued 25 walks all season, a tremendous number. For my thoughts on McCarthy see his Player Profile.

1.61 – Phil Humber
He finished last year in the top-20 in ABA. It would be surprising if he finished 2012 in the top-40.

1.69 – Gavin Floyd
Often overlooked, Floyd had a better ABA mark than Gio Gonzalez (1.71), Daniel Hudson (1.73) and Yovani Gallardo (1.77).

1.84 – Zack Greinke
Just slightly better than the league average in ABA (1.86), Greinke is still an elite arm. He just didn’t score well according to this measure. Remember, no one measure ever paints for the you entire picture.

1.87 – Brandon Morrow
You know I love the arm, but he simply must reign in the walks and cutting into the homer total would help as well.

1.97 – Bartolo Colon
Don’t be seduced by his strong first half last year.

2.04 – Ubaldo Jimenez
Seventy-eight walks will kill ya.

2.33 – Bronson Arroyo
The worst arm amongst qualifiers. Think it might have something to do with the 46 homers he allowed?

90-160 INNING HURLERS

1.39 – Johnny Cueto
He led this group in ABA since he fell four innings short of appearing in the top group.

1.49 – Jim Johnson
He doesn’t strike many out, an I’m not sure he’s a great 9th inning option, but he is rarely taken deep and doesn’t beat himself with the free passes.

1.72 – Scott Baker and Vance Worley
Baker’s arm appears to be sound this spring, but continued minor setbacks are an issue. Worley is starting to get a lot of love in the fantasy game.

1.87 – Homer Bailey
Though he had a solid WHIP of 1.28 his ABA was one hundredth worse than the league average.

2.37 – Edinson Volquez
He has a great arm, has a fantastic home park, and the last two years his ground ball rate is over 50 percent. Still, ABA shows you just how far he will have to come to return to relevance.

2.42 – Danny Duffy
He might look good this spring, but he looked awful last year.

LESS THAN 90 INNING ARMS

1.02 – Sergio Romo
Just like with SWIP, Romo comes out on top.

1.16 – Mariano Rivera
The AL leader, he gave up three homers and eight walks in over 61 innings last year.

1.23/1.24 – Craig Kimbrel/Jonny Venters
How apropos that the best lefty-righty duo out of the pen also finished with nearly identical ABA marks.

1.28 – Greg Holland
The Royals reliever had the same ABA mark as Sean Marshall and Jonathan Papelbon.

1.40 – John Axford, Brandon League
They both induce a ton of grounders and that helped to keep their total bases down.

1.50 – Aroldis Chapman, Javy Guerra
These two guys do it totally differently. One uses pure heat, the other get by more on “pitching.” Chapman walked a huge total of 41 guys in 50 innings but he allowed a mere two homers.

1.63 – Henry Rodriguez
Though he finished with a poor 1.51 WHIP, he has a big arm and ABA shows him to still be better than a big league average performer last year. In fact, his ABA was the same as Andrew Bailey.

1.90 – Joe Nathan
Nathan didn’t get along well with ABA last year, even though he had a strong second half. Seven homers in just 44.2 innings isn’t going to help anyone out.

1.99 – Huston Street
Ten homers in 58.1 innings caused his ABA to be pretty high (see Nathan).

2.16 – Phil Hughes
I keep warning about Hughes (see his Player Profile). The return to action of Andy Pettitte also is an issue.

For those of you who want to investigate further, here is the BBGuys-ABA-2011-PDF file that lists all men who tossed at least 40-innings last season.

Also… there is still time to pick up your copy of the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

Friday’s Fantasy Flight

No, I won’t be sampling wines for you on this day, I’ll just be taking a look around the league touching on Ryan Braun’s suspension, CC Sabathia’s lack of girth, Phil Hughes hype, Tim Wakefield’s retirement and more. I know, how exciting.

There is still no resolution in the Ryan Braun PED case. I don’t know about you, but I get the feeling that the longer this drags on the more likely it is that the 50 game suspension is going to be reduced.

Gary Carter passed away yesterday at age 57. Carter finished his career with 324 homers, 1,225 RBI, 2,092 hits, 11 All-Star game appearances and a spot in the Hall of Fame. The world is worse off with his passing.

I’m still sitting on that A.J. Burnett article I wrote a week ago. Yankees, trade the guy so that I can finally post this sucker (apparently the Yankees will pay $20 of the $33 million left on his deal, but because there is money involved the Commissioners Office has to get involved before the deal with the Pirates can become official).

Don’t buy the Phil Hughes hype that is already coming out of Yankees beat writers. For my thoughts on the hurler see his Player Profile.

Did you see this insane story that the Jim Leyland plans on getting Brandon Inge some work at second base this spring? Jimmy, you are kidding right? Inge, at one time a plus defender at third base, has never played second base as a professional. I understand that the Tigers might be non-plussed by guys like Danny Worth, Ramon Santiago and Ryan Raburn, but Brandon Inge? Over the last five seasons Inge has hit better than .240 just a single time and he batted .197 last year proving that he simply isn’t a major league caliber hitter any more. As for Raburn, he too has issues, but he finished on a tear last year hitting .341 with a .967 OPS over his last 45 games. Why the team wouldn’t give him a shot instead of Inge is beyond me. Don’t look for Inge to play second base — this story seems like sheer folly to me.

Last night went great by the way. There’s no telling what the weekend might hold. If I didn’t tell you all, 2012 is the Year of Ray…

Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters both focused more on training their bodies than throwing this offseason. Both felt that after they made 79 and 85 appearances that building up their stamina an bodies was as important as anything. Venters reportedly gained about seven pounds of muscle. In a related news story I curled a 10 lbs. weight yesterday in my garage.

It’s that time of year, and we’re getting the ‘he reported in great shape’ reports again. Here’s one. CC Sabathia has lost a lot of weight this offseason according to Buster Olney. That’s good news as he was threatening to play Godzilla in the remake with only green paint on since his girth wasn’t in need of a costume.

THE AARP CROWD

Jason Varitek hasn’t decided if he will retire. Let me make it easy for you Jason – hang em up. You’re still a highly respected signal caller, but your defensive acumen is on the wane, and the last time you hit .240 was 2007. Varitek has hit .256 in his career with 193 homers and 757 RBI in more than 1,500 games played.

Tim Wakefield has decided to retire. Wakefield won 200 games in his career and saved 22 in over 3,200 innings. He was never an elite fantasy option, but he won 16 games twice, on two other occasions he also won 17 games, and from 1995 through 2011 he tossed less than 140 innings just one time (129.2 in 2009). I wish someone would teach me the knuckleball. Let’s hope that scouts don’t push knucklers out of the game forever – they give us hope that we could pitch in the big leagues.

Brandon Webb is throwing off flat ground. I wish him the best, but he’s through. Webb threw four innings in 2009 then none in 2010 and 2011. It’s a sad end to what was shaping up to be an excellent career. From 2005-08 an average Webb season resulted in 18 wins, a 3.23 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 181 Ks and 232 innings pitched. To say that he was a fantasy beast is a vast understatement.

By Ray Flowers

Arbitration Avoided

It only seems like every player in baseball signed a contract today.

A whole heaping ton of players avoided the arbitration process today by agreeing to contracts with their current clubs. I wont bore you to tears breaking down names like Boone Logan (1-year, $1.2 million), but I will discuss the deals for some of the bigger names guys who agreed to remain with their teams without having to go through the acrimonious arbitration process.

Chad Billingsley ($6.275 million): In each of the past four years he has won 12 games, only four others have done that, and in each of the past three years he has at least 170 Ks (only 10 others have done that).

Matt Capps ($7.15 million): The Twins wanted to keep a reliever who could close in case that Joe Nathan (Tommy John surgery) isn’t ready to fill the role 100 percent of the time in the early going. They therefore agreed to a deal to keep Capps, who had 42 saves last year. This is a smart baseball move that gives the Twins a terrific fall back option if Nathan isn’t ready, but in terms of real world dollars, it’s a pretty awful move for the Twins. This isn’t the Yankees we are talking about, so the $18.4 million the club has invested in their 8th and 9th inning arms is exorbitant.

John Danks ($6 million): Evolving into one of the best left-handed starters in baseball, Danks made $3.45 million last year. Amongst AL lefties the past two years he is 6th in ERA (3.75), 5th in base runners per nine innings (11.43), fifth in strikeouts (311) and fourth in wins (28).

Jacoby Ellsbury ($2.4 million): After playing only 18 games in 2010 this is a lot of money for Ellsbury. However, if he returns to health, pushes .300 with 90 runs and 50 steals, it will be a massive bargain for the Red Sox.

Matt Garza ($5.95 million): I broke down the Garza and his talents in Hot Stove: December 13, 2010.

J.J. Hardy ($5.85 million): A decent figure for both sides if Hardy is healthy. If he is in fact fully functional, he could hit .270 with 20 homers, and there are only a handful of shortstops who can match that.

Phil Hughes ($2.7): A reasonable sum to be sure if he is indeed a third starter. Hughes won 18 games with a 1.25 WHIP last season, but he was decidedly average in the second half of the year (7-6, 4.90 ERA, 1.34 WHIP).

Kendry Morales ($2.975 million): He could be a top-10 option at first base this season, so don’t forget about the guy who blew his knee out celebrating a walk-off home run in his last game of the 2010 season.

Jonathan Papelbon ($12 million): Yikes. You have to think he will be taking a pay cut next year when he becomes a free agent, but because of the arbitration process the Red Sox were basically forced to pay way to much money for a guy who, it can be argued, is coming off his worst season in five years as the closer. Luckily it’s the Red Sox who seem to have a printing press for bills in the basemen of Fenway.

Martin Prado ($3.1 million): The plan is for him to play left field. His bat is likely miscast for that role – at least in terms of it providing a lot of fantasy value – but for 2011 at least he will still qualify as second and third baseman leaving him with a ton of value. Oh yeah, he also hit .307 in 2009, .307 in 2010 and owns a career average of, you guessed it, .307.

Carlos Quentin ($5.05 million): He might always struggle to repeat his terrific 2008 season (.288-36-100-96 in just 130 games), but he has a nice power bat. If he can stay healthy he could be Adam Dunn Jr. hitting .250 with 30 homers.

Cody Ross ($6.3 million): He made $4 million last season when he had a merely average regular season (.269-14-65-71-9). However, he had big hit after big hit in the postseason (.294-5-10) which basically forced the Giants hand. He isn’t a good bet for anything other than an ordinary .270-20-75 season.

By Ray Flowers

Two All-Time Greats?

In today’s article I will discuss two of the best performers that the game has seen over the last 20 years. One could potentially be hanging up his spikes while the other is hoping to have his name called out in a couple of days when the Hall of Fame voting results are announced.

The Yankees Are in Trouble

Reports continue to trickle out that Andy Pettitte is legitimately leaning toward retirement (an announcement could even come within the next few days). This isn’t a salary push or anything like that, it’s simply a decision that Pettitte needs to make for himself and his family as he has apparently grown a bit weary of the toll the game has taken on his body. Here are the facts.

(1) He doesn’t need the money having made more than $125 million in his career.

(2) His place in history is secure. Pettitte has been one of the finest postseason pitchers of modern times, just take a look at the numbers: 19-10, 3.83 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 173 Ks over 263 innings pitched. As for his regular season work, he’s also been one of the best left-handed pitchers of recent times. Not just that, he profiles quite well amongst all lefties who have ever pitched as his total of 240 victories is tied for 12th all time with Herb Pennock and Frank Tanana. Pettitte also has a winning percentage of .635 in his career which is the 9th best mark of any left-handed pitcher in the history of baseball (min. 1,500 innings pitched).

(3) He was darn good last season, even at 38 years of age, as he went 11-3 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Unfortunately he was limited to 129 innings, his lowest total of his 16 season career other than his injury plagued 2004 season. Given the struggles to stay healthy last season, it just sounds like Pettitte has had enough.

(4) If he doesn’t come back, as seems quite likely at this point, the Yankees are in big, big trouble. Here would be their projected rotation, sans Pettitte, if the season started today.

CC Sabathia: A worthy #1.

A.J. Burnett: Coming off his worst season (5.26 ERA, 1.51 WHIP).

Phil Hughes: Won 18 games but had a 4.90 ERA after the break and has only one season of starting in
bigs.

Ivan Nova: He’s appeared in all of 10 big league games.

Sergio Mitre: Made only three starts last season and owns terrible career ratios (5.27 ERA, 1.50 WHIP).

If you are a Yankees’ fan it’s time to pray to whomever you pray to because you desperately need Andy Pettitte to put off retirement for another year.

The Historical Place of the DH

Almost a year ago to the day I wrote a piece about Edgar Martinez and his Hall of Fame candidacy entitled Is There Room for a DH? In that piece I laid out my thoughts about the case of a man who was a Hall of Fame worthy performer, save for two significant points. (1) Martinez wasn’t given a full-time role with the Mariners until he was 27 years old, so some of his counting numbers just aren’t that impressive when placed in a historical context (he had only 309 homers, one less than Jay Buhner and 1,261 RBI, 10 less than Tino Martinez). (2) No full-time designated hitter has ever been elected to the Hall of Fame (Martinez played the field in less than 30 percent of his career games). Both points, on their own, could be enough to keep Edgar from ever being enshrined in the halls of Cooperstown.

At the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account today there was some back and forth about the fact that Martinez deserved to be in the Hall of Fame. After all, DH is a position, to which I argued it’s a one way position. Martinez was a hitter, but would anyone call him a player? In my mind that means he will have a very difficult time convincing the voting body that he deserves baseball’s ultimate honor. Conversely, it can be argued that pitchers only do one thing – pitch – and no one has any complaints about hurlers making the Hall so perhaps people will be willing to overlook the fact that Martinez played most of his career without even owning a glove. In the end I wish that baseball would do the right thing and eliminate the whole debate by returning the game to its roots by riding itself of the abomination that is the designated hitter.

And finally, are you as pumped as I am about the upcoming 2011 fantasy baseball season? In order to help you kick off your quest to be a champion in ’11, we at Fanball have set out to provide you with all the tools that you need to accomplish your goal. Read more about how to start your journey in Your Fantasy Baseball Resolution where you will find links to staff rankings, projections, live advice and DraftPractice.com where you can mock away for FREE.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: The Arms Race

In today’s article I’ll expound upon a rather interesting comparison between setup men. I’ll also discuss another reliever looking for a home, an all-time great who might retire, and the hottest arm on the free agent market if you decide that based upon the numbers of teams that want to sign him to a deal.

Daniel Bard vs. Joba Chamberlain: The perception is that the Red Sox righty reliever is a much better option in 2011. However, is that really the case? Let’s compare each hard throwing setup man to the other based on 2010 numbers.

Bard:1-2, 1.93 ERA, 1.00 WHIP
Joba: 3-4, 4.40 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

Clearly Bard was the better pitcher last season, and it wasn’t even close. Or was it?

Bard: 9.16 K/9, 3.62 BB/9, 2.53 K/BB, 1.23 GB/FB
Joba: 9.67 K/9, 2.76 BB/9, 3.50 K/BB, 1.22 GB/FB

Admit it – you almost fell out of your chair when you saw those three numbers, didn’t you? That’s right, Joba had a better K-rate, walked fewer batters, and had a better K/BB ratio. Given that their GB/FB ratios were virtually identical, if that was the only data you had at your fingertips you would say that Joba was the better pitcher, and it wouldn’t even be a tough call. So how in the world were his ERA and WHIP so much worse than Bard’s marks last year? I think I have a rather simple answer.

Bard: .225 BABIP, 15.4 LD-rate
Joba: .343 BABIP, 17.2 LD-rate

Yahtzee. Bard’s BABIP was artificially low while Joba’s was artificially high. That’s obviously a huge piece of this puzzle. We can make the argument that both hurlers also had artificially low line drive marks, but clearly the difference between the LD-rate and the BABIP mark was totally nuts for Bars. The big league average is 20 and .300, yet somehow Chamberlain flew past that to an obnoxious .343 BABIP even though his LD-rate was terrific. It just doesn’t make much sense. If both hurlers maintain their ’10 line drive rate in ’11, you would expect Bard to have a BABIP mark of about .270 and Joba to have a mark of about .290. If the gap does close to .020 points instead of last years .118 spread, you can bet the fantasy performance of both hurlers will be pretty darn close. Oh, and don’t forget that the Red Sox added reliever Bobby Jenks to their bullpen which might mean that Bard wouldn’t be the first choice to close if something were to happen to Jonathan Papelbon. As for the Yankees situation, do you have any doubt that Joba would get the call in the 9th inning if Mariano Rivera went down?

Octavio Dotel: He has certainly seen better days, but the guy still throws hard and knows how to post strikeouts. In fact, his 10.55 K/9 mark in 2010 was his fourth straight year in double digits and just slightly below his career 10.95 mark. Of course, walks are always a concern, more than four per nine in his career, and they were even above that poor mark up at 4.50 last year. Still, when looking for a power arm on the cheap, he is one of the best bets still on the market, so you can understand why he has been linked to the Rays, Blue Jays and Pirates.

Andy Pettitte: It really is starting to sound like Pettitte may indeed hang up his spikes. According to Buster Olney, Pettitte isn’t preparing as he normally would with his offseason training regimen. Even if he were to sign a deal with the Yankees, at this point he’d be weeks behind where he would normally be at physically. The Yankees have to be feeling like that kid who knows he was bad and is somehow holding out hope that Santa will overlook that fact and still bring him a gift on Christmas. As of now, here is the Yankees rotation: CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Phil Hughes and ??? They are nearly to the point of desperation with the only legitimate internal option apparently being Ivan Nova (I’m not buying Sergio Mitre). It’s not a good situation to be in. What is that old say, pitching wins championships? If that is the case, the Yankees are in serious trouble.

Brandon Webb: Last night there was a mystery team added to the mix (Ala the Phillies with the Cliff Lee negotiations). Who is that mystery team? We don’t know other than the club is from the NL Central and that it isn’t the Reds or Brewers. Since everyone already knows the Cubs are interested, that would seem to mean that either the Cardinals, Pirates or Astros are in the mix. Come Wednesday, we now have a second mystery team in the mix according to Webb’s agent Jonathan Maurer. Has there been this much interest in a broken down asset since the housing market crash?

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: ALCS Preview

Ray Flowers breaks down the American League Championship Series with a position by position breakdown of the Yankees and the Rangers.

By Ray Flowers