History in the Making

A slugger made history. A pitcher who also made history has hit hard times. A pitcher is getting no love despite personal success. A former elite option is returning to action. Two middling hurlers have been mighty impressive. And oh, Kate Beckinsale…

Josh Hamilton had one of the greatest nights in baseball history Tuesday as he went deep four times with eight RBI as he became just the 16th player every to hit four dingers in a game. He also hit a double to propel him to 18 total bases, the most in a game in the history of the American League (Shawn Green had 19 total bases in his four homer game for the Dodgers in 2002). So what do I say to all of that? Trade Hamilton now at his zenith. Remember, the guy has averaged 114 games played the past three years.

Reason 1,963 why wins mean nothing… Ryan Dempster has a 1.02 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 9.17 K/9 an a 3.60 K/BB ratio through five starts and he is 0-1 for the Cubs.

Phil Humber tossed a perfect game on April 21st, the 21st in the history of the game. However, he’s been an unmitigated disaster in three outings since. Humber has tossed 13.1 innings an allowed 20 hits. As bad as that sounds, it’s nowhere near the worst of it. In those 13.1 innings he’s also walked 11 batters, allowed five home runs and permitted, and his is no misprint, 20 earned runs to cross the plate. Add that all up and Humber, in his last three starts, has an ERA of 13.50 an a WHIP of 2.40. Now you see why I had him ranked outside my top-100 amongst starting pitchers this season and why all that talk about him taking the next step this season were baseless.

I know the movie was terrible, but if anyone can watch Underworld Awakening – which was released on DVD this week – and see Kate Beckinsale and not want to immediately buy some leather pants, then I don’t know what your problem is. Where is my Kate Beckinsale? What a looker.

Andy Pettitte will start for the Yankees on Sunday. With a name that will almost certainly far outpace his production, Pettitte is nothing more than an innings eater for a mixed league staff, an a moderate one at that. The 39 year old tossed four games as he worked his way back into shape and he allowed seven earned runs (3.71 ERA) and 22 base runners (1.29 WHIP) against the whipper snappers in the minors, not exactly impressive totals.

Joe Saunders got lit up Monday allowing six earned runs in 3.1 innings in his first non-quality start of the year in his sixth start. It’s all about the law of averages, or regression to the mean if you prefer. Saunders is the owner of a career 4.10 ERA an only twice in four seasons as a full-time starter has his ERA been under 4.40. Clearly he wasn’t going to post a sub 2.00 ERA this season. In fact, even with his outing Monday his ERA is still nearly a full run better than it has ever been at 2.50 (he had a 3.41 mark in 2008). Given Saunders skill set everything, an I mean everything, will have to go right for him this season to post an ERA under 3.40. What that means is that he still has a long way go to regress back to the pitcher he actually is. Be sure you’re aware of that if you have him rostered as anything other than a rotation filler in mixed leagues.

Carlos Zambrano was a pitcher I targeted as a pick up this week because of his two start status. Consider game one a rousing success as Big Z tossed a nine inning shutout at the Astros permitting only three hits and one walk while striking out nine. I know it was the Astros which is akin to mowing down a Triple-A roster, but it’s time we give Carlos some props. His 1-2 record blows chunks but it certainly has nothing to do with how he has performed as he’s posted a 1.98 ERA and 1.02 WHIP for the Marlins. Moreover, Zambrano has made six starts, all of which have been “quality starts” (at least six innings pitched while permitting three or fewer runs). A hell of a start for the combustible one.

Here are some pitchers that are bound to have brighter days ahead given their massive BABIP mark (it’s very rare to see a hurler end a year with a mark as high as .330).

.439 – Josh Johnson
.407 – Mar Scherzer
.381 – Ivan Nova
.369 – Zack Greinke
.363 – Juan Nicasio

By Ray Flowers

ABA 2011: A Review

Yesterday in ABA: The New WHIP, I laid out my six year old idea now of how to better evaluate pitchers performance than the standard that is used in virtually every fantasy league – WHIP. Instead I suggested that Average Bases Allowed (ABA) – recorded by taking Total Bases + Walks divided by Innings Pitched – gives a truer understanding of the level of performance for a hurler than WHIP (you can read about the in’s an out’s of ABA in the above link). Today, I’ll list for you some of the leaders in ABA from the 2011 season based on innings pitched. Before I get to that a quick review of ABA.

ABA = (TBA + BB) / IP

The lower ones ABA the better, but it doesn’t read the same was as WHIP. Whereas the average WHIP last season was 1.32, the league average ABA of all pitchers in 2011 was 1.86.

Second, here is a “key” you can employ to understand the ABA totals.

Below 1.50: elite level performance
1.50-1.70: All-Star level
1.71-1.89: Solid major league hurler worthy of counting on in fantasy circles
1.91-2.10: Barley holding on to an effective role as a fantasy starter.
2.11 and up: Might as well line up a pitching machine

With that, here are some of the the hurlers that caught my eye broken down into innings pitched groupings.

2011 ABA LEADERS – Minimum 160 IP

1.31 – Clayton Kershaw
1.32 – Roy Halladay
1.35 – Justin Verlander
What a shock. The three hurlers who are widely regarded as options 1-3 in 2012 finished 1-3 in ABA in 2011.

1.43 – Cliff Lee
1.44 Cole Hamels
The Phillies had three of the top five arms according to ABA.

1.45 – Doug Fister
He didn’t beat himself with walks (37) or allow many long balls (11), a key in ABA.

1.59 – Brandon McCarthy
Only issued 25 walks all season, a tremendous number. For my thoughts on McCarthy see his Player Profile.

1.61 – Phil Humber
He finished last year in the top-20 in ABA. It would be surprising if he finished 2012 in the top-40.

1.69 – Gavin Floyd
Often overlooked, Floyd had a better ABA mark than Gio Gonzalez (1.71), Daniel Hudson (1.73) and Yovani Gallardo (1.77).

1.84 – Zack Greinke
Just slightly better than the league average in ABA (1.86), Greinke is still an elite arm. He just didn’t score well according to this measure. Remember, no one measure ever paints for the you entire picture.

1.87 – Brandon Morrow
You know I love the arm, but he simply must reign in the walks and cutting into the homer total would help as well.

1.97 – Bartolo Colon
Don’t be seduced by his strong first half last year.

2.04 – Ubaldo Jimenez
Seventy-eight walks will kill ya.

2.33 – Bronson Arroyo
The worst arm amongst qualifiers. Think it might have something to do with the 46 homers he allowed?

90-160 INNING HURLERS

1.39 – Johnny Cueto
He led this group in ABA since he fell four innings short of appearing in the top group.

1.49 – Jim Johnson
He doesn’t strike many out, an I’m not sure he’s a great 9th inning option, but he is rarely taken deep and doesn’t beat himself with the free passes.

1.72 – Scott Baker and Vance Worley
Baker’s arm appears to be sound this spring, but continued minor setbacks are an issue. Worley is starting to get a lot of love in the fantasy game.

1.87 – Homer Bailey
Though he had a solid WHIP of 1.28 his ABA was one hundredth worse than the league average.

2.37 – Edinson Volquez
He has a great arm, has a fantastic home park, and the last two years his ground ball rate is over 50 percent. Still, ABA shows you just how far he will have to come to return to relevance.

2.42 – Danny Duffy
He might look good this spring, but he looked awful last year.

LESS THAN 90 INNING ARMS

1.02 – Sergio Romo
Just like with SWIP, Romo comes out on top.

1.16 – Mariano Rivera
The AL leader, he gave up three homers and eight walks in over 61 innings last year.

1.23/1.24 – Craig Kimbrel/Jonny Venters
How apropos that the best lefty-righty duo out of the pen also finished with nearly identical ABA marks.

1.28 – Greg Holland
The Royals reliever had the same ABA mark as Sean Marshall and Jonathan Papelbon.

1.40 – John Axford, Brandon League
They both induce a ton of grounders and that helped to keep their total bases down.

1.50 – Aroldis Chapman, Javy Guerra
These two guys do it totally differently. One uses pure heat, the other get by more on “pitching.” Chapman walked a huge total of 41 guys in 50 innings but he allowed a mere two homers.

1.63 – Henry Rodriguez
Though he finished with a poor 1.51 WHIP, he has a big arm and ABA shows him to still be better than a big league average performer last year. In fact, his ABA was the same as Andrew Bailey.

1.90 – Joe Nathan
Nathan didn’t get along well with ABA last year, even though he had a strong second half. Seven homers in just 44.2 innings isn’t going to help anyone out.

1.99 – Huston Street
Ten homers in 58.1 innings caused his ABA to be pretty high (see Nathan).

2.16 – Phil Hughes
I keep warning about Hughes (see his Player Profile). The return to action of Andy Pettitte also is an issue.

For those of you who want to investigate further, here is the BBGuys-ABA-2011-PDF file that lists all men who tossed at least 40-innings last season.

Also… there is still time to pick up your copy of the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May 27, 2011

(1) Russell Branyan to steal playing time from Mark Trumbo?

(2) J.P. Arencebia to see a playing time boost.

(3) Homer Bailey – out with a shoulder issue.

(4) Phil Humber could be removed from the White Sox rotation.

(5) Is Carl Crawford finally back?

(6) Rockies shake it up. Release Jose Lopez, call up Eric Young Jr.

By Ray Flowers

Hurlers to Hold?

photo © 2011 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

Are pitchers performing as expected? For that matter, will they continue along their current path? In what follows I’ll give my thoughts on five hurlers and let you know whether or not I have faith in them being big time contributors to your fantasy squad the rest of the way.

 

Madison Bumgarner: The Giants’ young lefty is 0-6 and has started off horribly. Or has he? Each of his last four appearances have resulted in a “quality start” as he has produced a 1.80 ERA an a 1.00 WHIP in that time. MadBum, as he is affectionately known, also has a strong 9.00 K/9 mark and a 4.17 K/BB ratio in those four trips out to the bump. If his current owner is dismayed because of his ghastly record, or middling overall WHIP of 1.42, now is the time to bounce cause Bumgarner is back after a terrible start.

Jeremy Hellickson: The Rays’ rookie has won three straight starts and has gone 14 scoreless innings in his last two outings to drop his ERA to 2.98. All of a sudden, everyone is taking notice again almost as if they forgot that this guy was one of the top-10 prospects in baseball heading into the year. I’m concerned a bit that his K/9 rate is under six, especially when his BB/9 rate is so average (3.57), to say nothing of his poor 0.87 GB/FB. Basically everything he has done to this point suggests a “league average” fantasy performer, despite his wonderful last two outings. Hellickson’s understanding of pitching is elite for someone who hasn’t even thrown 85 innings as a big league so perhaps he will be able to work his way around some less than stellar measurables, but be wary – he’s not yet the pitcher he will be one day.

Phil Humber: The White Sox don’t want to remove Humber from the rotation so they are foolishly going with a 6-man rotation (I yearn for the days of 4-man rotations, so the Sox are going in the wrong direction here). Humber has a 3.18 ERA and 0.95 WHIP so you can see why the Sox want to keep throwing him, but it’s smoke and mirrors. His GB/FB ratio of 0.95 is below league average. His 5.16 K/9 is below big league average. His HR/9 mark of 0.40 is half of his career rate (0.84). His BABIP of .213 is .065 points below his career rate despite a line drive rate that is just one percent off normal. I’m not taking what he has done away from him, I’m just pointing out that it would be a minor miracle if he was able to keep up this level of performance over the course of the season.

Jason Marquis: Really? Do I need to even address Marquis? Quickly – he is a league average pitcher at best. He never strikes anyone out – he hasn’t had a K/9 mark of 6.00 since 2004, and despite his current walk rate of 1.69 per nine, he is completely average in that realm as well (his BB/9 mark has been at least 3.00 every one of his previous 11 seasons). It’s really as simple as that. He’s not the guy who posted a 6.60 ERA last year, but he’s also not going to post his first sub 4.00 ERA since 2004 either. He’s a passable spot starter in a mixed league if you are desperate, but he’s likely to be nothing more than an innings eater in an NL-only format.

Alexei Ogando: One word – phenomenal. Through seven starts Ogando has gone at least six innings each time out, and only once has he allowed more than two earned runs leading to a 2.06 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP. However, you don’t need me to tell you that there is no way he can perform this well all season, but here is the proof. (1)  His K/9 rate is down two full batters from last season though he’s somehow managed to lower his walk rate by a batter and a half. (2) His homer rate is triple what it was last season. The two most damning numbers follow. (3) Ogando has a .193 BABIP. There is NO way that number stays that low. I don’t normally make such declarative statements like that, but I’m 100 percent convinced. Why? Somehow Ogando has undershot the big league BABIP average by .100 points even though his line drive rate is two percent above the big league average (21.8 percent). Simply, the dude has been exceedingly lucky. Amazingly so actually. (4) Ogando has a left on base percentage of 95 percent. While the big league average is 70 percent, a couple of guys each year crest 80 percent. Still, 95 percent is a level that is impossible to sustain, a fact that is driven home by his xFIP mark of 3.91. Ogando has been magnificent, but if you can convince someone that he is a top-20 hurler, now is the time to move him.

 

By Ray Flowers

Waiver-Wire Adds

photo © 2008 Dirk | more info (via: Wylio)

You’re in a 12 team league that starts 14 hitters and nine pitchers with five or six guys on your bench. If you are in a setup such as this the following guys might be available for you to add. The question is – should you?

Mike Adams: The best pitcher in baseball? Through 14 innings he hasn’t walked a better and has allowed three hits. That’s a 0.21 WHIP folks. Toss in a 0.64 ERA and the guy been utterly amazing. He’s worth a look in a 12 teamer while pitching like this just don’t expect too many saves since Heath Bell is currently working on the 6th longest consecutive save streak in big league history (40).

Alberto Callaspo: He might be hitting .301, but he’s really nothing more than a replacement level player. Callaspo has never hit more than 11 homers in a season, and he has all of 10 steals in his career. His average won’t hurt you, it sits at .280 for his career, and it is impressive that he’s currently sporting a substantial increase in his walk rate which has led to a .381 OBP, some .051 points clear of his career rate. Unfortunately he likely only qualifies at third base, but with all the injuries at that position he might be worth a short-term add.

Doug Fister: This hurler owns a solid 1.28 WHIP during his young career, and his ERA also sits below four at 3.92. Unfortunately his K/9 rate is just 5.19, so there is little in the way of upside here. Fister’s xFIP last year – a measure designed to show what a pitchers true ERA should be (including normalization for ballpark) – says that his mark last year was 4.10, that it is 4.16 this year and 4.18 for his career. Given that his ERA’s his first two years were 4.13 and 4.11, do you really think he has a good shot to keep his ERA below three this year (it’s currently 2.70)?

Kosuke Fukudome: He lit up April hitting .383/.486/.400. So the initial thought is that he must finally have figured it out. Probably not. He’s still being platooned sitting against lefties (only six at-bats against southpaws this year), and if you look at his career April is always his best month of the season. Moreover, its the only month he has hit better than .280 (.338), his only one with an OBP over .382 (it’s .448) an a SLG over .455 (it’s .507). History says you should expect things to go south pretty soon.

Todd Helton: The Rockies’ first sacker is a legitimate option at the corner infield spot, especially with guys like Daric Barton and James Loney struggling. Helton isn’t likely to reach his totals from 2009 (.325-15-86-79) but it’s doubtful he’ll be as bad as he was last year either (.256-8-37-48). As long as his back doesn’t betray him his bat can play as a depth option.

Phil Humber: His spot in the rotation isn’t secure with Jake Peavy nearing a return, but Humber has performed admirably. However, he doesn’t strike anyone out (5.85 per nine), and there is little chance that he will be  able to continue to keep his HR/9 so low (it’s 0.56) and there is no chance he’ll keep his hit rate down at .212 (that’s some .065 points below his career rate).

Conor Jackson: A first round draft pick with beautiful stroke, Jackson was a solid performer from 2006-08 as a guy who was hitting .290 with 15 homers and 70 RBI. He then picked up West Valley Nile River Mekong Delta Virus or whatever it’s called. It ruined his 2009 and 2010 seasons. Playing time is an issue this season, the A’s have seemingly 47 hitters on their roster, but Conor is looking just like his old self hitting .298 with a .375 OBP and his normally stellar BB/K ratio (1.00). He’s worth an add if he continues to play every day.

Jason Marquis: He’s 3-0 with a 2.62 ERA. Come on, seriously though? Marquis will take the ball every five games, throw a lot of innings, and produce double-digit wins. He does it every year he is healthy. He also owns a career ERA of 4.52 and a WHIP of 1.42 over more than 1,500 big league innings. He’s totally on his game right now and might be worth a spot start or two in the short-term, but you can’t count on him to be anything more than your last starter – and even that may not be a deal you’ll want to make in a mixed league.

By Ray Flowers