Player Profile: Shane Victorino

I’ve always been a fan of the Flyin’ Hawaiian. Shane Victorino has long been one of those players who doesn’t hurt you in any of the five fantasy categories. He’s also one of the rare players that usually offers something positive in each of the five categories. The Red Sox realized how valuable a performer that Victorino is as they lavished on him a three year deal worth $39 million to be an everyday member of their club. Coming off his worst full season we have to assess whether or not it’s time to change our view of a player that is always cheaper on draft day than he should be.

In a season split between the Phillies and Dodgers, Victorino wasn’t up to his normal standards. He hit .255, a career worst. His total of 11 homers was a three year low and just one above his full season low. His total of 55 RBIs was a five year low. His total of 72 runs scored was a six year low. Does his total of 39 steals, a career best, offset the negative? Not even close, but at least it helped to keep his season from falling into the fantasy abyss. Why the struggles from the only player in baseball who has hit 10 homers, with 55 RBIs, 70 runs scored and 19 steals each of the past five years?

This is the second time in three years that Victorino has hit in the .250′s, and that’s a concern. The career .275 hitter batted at least .281 from 2006-09, but the last three years have seen him hit .259, .279 and .255. We often speak of rolling three year trends helping to set baselines, so perhaps we should admit to ourselves that Victorino may only be a hit every four at-bat kinda guy as a 32 year old (Nov. 30th). After all, Shane has failed to reach his career average of 18.5 percent in the line drive rate the past three years (17.4, 15.8 and 17.8 percent). He’s also failed to reach his .296 career BABIP the last three years (.273, .292 and .278). None of that speaks to a substantial batting average turnaround for Victorino in ’13.

We can pretty much gloss over the homer/RBI discussion. It’s just not Victorino’s game, even if he offers a little bit of something each year.

Running though is something that Victorino does, and does well. In two of the last three years he’s stolen at least 34 bases, and he’s hit that mark in four of the last six years (the two times he missed he swiped 25 and 19 bases). He’s going to run. Not just that, he’s going to be very successful at it as he has been caught just 23 times the past four years while stealing 117 bases (an 84 percent success rate). What makes his total last season even more impressive is that he reached his career best of 39 thefts despite a .321 OBP, .020 points below his career mark and his worst total since 2005. Part of the reason he was able to mount a high total was due to the fact that he was able to record 640 plate appearances for just the third time, but still gotta give him props for the theft total (will the Red Sox allow him to run as much? A fair question).

Something that should be pointed out. Having interviewed former GM Steve Phillips on The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (my daily radio show on Sirius210 and XM87), I’m still struck by one of the things he related during the visit. He said he respects Victorino for his all out style of play, but he’s also a bit concerned about it. Victorino grinds through at-bats and games very well, but that style of play eventually wears you down. It also means that when the player is struggling he works even harder to get out of it. Sometimes that extra effort works, but at other times it leads to a lengthening of the slump. When dealt to the Dodgers he hit .245 as he tried to prove his worth. Might he do the same thing with his new team in Boston – try too hard with the results not being the level of production we’ve come to expect?

When I look at Victorino I still think of him as a strong 4th outfielder in mixed leagues. He continues to run, and that will always help him maintain his value, and he still offers enough of an all-around game that no one should be disappointed if he ends up on their squad, even if you aren’t going to want to pull back on a twelve pack of Tecate, which I like more than Corona, to celebrate.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Joe Blanton

Joe Blanton is kind of like Clark Kent. He might be solid at his job, but no one really notices. There’s no flash or dash to his game. He goes out there, gives a workman like effort, an at the end of the day retreats to his Fortress of Solitude. Can Blanton take flight, you see what I did there?, and become someone’s hero in the fantasy game in 2013?

2012: 10-13, 4.71 ERA, 166 Ks, 1.26 WHIP in 191 IP

Blanton made 21 appearances for the Phillies and 10 for the Dodgers last season. In the end he was his normal, mild mannered performer with an under .500 record, an ERA worse than the league average and a WHIP that was only slightly better than the rest of his NL mates. So like many others in my Player Profile series you are thinking to yourself – why bother? – while at the same time wondering just what little bits of information that I’ve been able to dig up point to Blanton as being a person of note.

Let’s start out where Blanton was elite. I chose that term specifically to denote how he performed, there is no hyperbole involved. Blanton’s 1.60 BB/9 mark was the third best mark in baseball (it was only bettered by Cliff Lee 1.19 and Bronson Arroyo 1.56). Wow is right. Thanks to never issuing a free pass he rarely beat himself. Blanton wasn’t just avoiding the free pass last year, he was also hitting his spots with all his pitches and the result was a 7.82 K/9 mark, a career best total. When you add together those strikeout and walk numbers, guess what, you get another elite number – 4.88 as in his K/BB ratio. Where did that number place him among all starters who threw at least 162 innings (the total you need to qualify for the ERA title)? Nope, it wasn’t third. The actual answer is second, i.e. there was only one man in baseball who was better than Blanton (Cliff Lee at 7.39). When you do what Blanton did you’re not supposed to have an ERA approaching five, nor are you supposed to have an ERA that is three tenths above your career mark (in fact, his xFIP was 3.35 and his SIERA 3.45 showing that he actually pitched much better than his raw ERA would lead you to think).

So what happened? Good question.

Blanton posted a 1.39 GB/FB ratio, the third best mark of his nine year career. However, he also allowed a line drive rate of 23.4 percent, more than three points above his career mark (20.2) and nearly three points above his previous season worst (20.6). That certainly didn’t help his performance, but oddly, his BABIP was .310, a three year low and just above his .301 career mark. So again, why all the runs allowed? Remember the Player Profile on Ervin Santana and all that homer talk? Welcome to Blanton’s world, though not to the extent that it was for Santana. Blanton allowed 1.37 homers per nine innings (career 1.07) an a 15.3 HR/F ratio. Not only is that number a career worst, it’s also five points above his career rate. I would have to think that the number normalizes in 2013.

I could talk about his struggles with lefties (.293 average) or how he fared with RISP (.300 average), or note how batters hit .309 against him once he reached 91 pitches in an outing, but the bottom line is that he pitched much better than his ERA would lead you to believe. Remember, this is a guy who was a truly elite performer in BB/9 and K/BB last year, not to mention a guy who posted his best WHIP in five seasons. If Blanton were to maintain his overall performance from 2012 into the 2013 season you would be safe to expect his win-loss record to reverse itself while his ERA could drop by a full run. I’m not saying it’s going to happen, I’m merely pointing out that the performance he threw out on the field last year was indicative of a pitcher operating at darn near peak efficiency, not a guy who was barely worth rostering in mixed leagues. Maybe Blanton is more Superman than Clark Kent after all.
 

By Ray Flowers

Geezers in the Outfield: Damon, Ibanez, Matsui

Johnny Damon, Raul Ibanez and Hideki Matsui have all been solid performers for years (each was a fantasy star at one point, even if you’ve forgotten because it was a while ago). Do any of the three enough residual skill to be of use in the fantasy game in 2012 as anything other than single league options (NL or AL Only)? That’s what we’re going to investigate.

Damon (.261-16-73-79-19) is one of the more stable performers in the history of the game. Really. Damon has appeared in 140 games in 16-straight years to tie Hank Aaron, Brooks Robinson and Pete Rose for the longest such run in big league history. He’s also had 11 seasons of at least 90 runs scored and 15 steals, the third most such seasons in history. Those aren’t phenomenal numbers, but they have long made him a draft day target after the bigger names were taken. However, Damon has seen his average dip the last three years (.303, .282, .271 and .261) as his bat speed slips, and last year was the first time since 1998 that he posted a BB/K rate under 0.70 (it was 0.55). His GB/FB ratio was pretty standard fair for him at 1.08 (career 1.25), and his line drive mark of 20.2 percent was right on his career rate of 20 percent, so it’s not like he’s totally lost it at the dish. Damon even upped his steals mark to 19 after totaling just 23 in 2009-10. Damon can still produce, an if given 500+ at-bats he still seems capable of replicating the fantasy line he posted last season (though I’d expect the steals to dip even if his bat remained on track).

Ibanez (.245-20-84-65) looked lost last April hitting .161 with a homer before rebounding in May to hit .315 with seven homers. Alas, his production was all over the place as he had three months with an OPS under .600 last year, and that’s just unacceptable. He was also a complete liability against left-handed pitching with a .211/.232/.353 line that made him look like a good hitting pitcher. Yeah, it was pretty brutal. He also hit a mere .210 with a .577 OPS on the road, so it appears that he is in desperate need of an offensive ballpark if he want’s to stave off Father Time for another year. To be fair did record 20 homers and 84 RBI, the 7th straight year he has hit at least 16 homers with 83 RBI, but those numbers were merely the result of playing everyday in a strong lineup in Philly. Ibanez posted an 18.4 K-rate which isn’t awful, but it was his second worst numbers since 1998. He also posted his lowest walk rate since that 1998 season, and the result was a 0.31 BB/K mark that was a drastic fall from his career mark of 0.54. Ibanez also hit more balls into the ground than at any point in his career (46 percent) as his fly ball rate dipped to 35.0 percent, it’s lowest mark since 2005. Can Ibanez still drive in a run? Certainly. But with his declining skill set, and the fact that he will be 40 years old on 1972, any slump at all will likely lead to him being replaced by a younger player up the upswing, not to mention the fact that even in a best case scenario he may be forced into a platoon.

Matsui (.251-12-72-56) can no longer play the field, his knees can’t take the pounding, so his outlook is even more limited than the other two. When he hit just .209 in the first half with a .617 OPS for the A’s, many an epitaph was written for his tombstone. Seemingly finding the fountain of youth, Matsui rebounded to hit a whopping .369 with 22 RBI in July to propel him to a .295 average and 38 RBI over his last 65 games. While that was a great improvement on the first half, those are still middling numbers for a DH. Matsui has failed to hit .275 for three years running, an at this point 20 homers might be a reach as well. Matsui is coming off his career worst HR/F ratio mark of 7.4 percent (career 12.6), and twice in four years that number has been in the single digits. He also hit more grounders last season than he has in three years, and that’s not going to help him reach the seats. Matsui also took fewer walks than he had since 2005, and his K-rate last season was a percentage point above his career rate. If he was 27 years old the outlook wouldn’t be dire, but as a 37 year old, the tires have almost been worn down to the tube. Given that he has appeared in only 46 games in the field the last four years, and that his bat is clearly slowing, it’s nearly impossible to think he’ll be able to appreciably improve upon last years effort.

You can find out where all of the three geezers rank in terms of their projected draft position at Fleaflicker and you can find out how I rank all three players if you purchase the BaseballGuys 2012 Fantasy Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Roy Oswalt

One of the best pitcher’s of our generation, Roy Oswalt struggled in 2011 posting the worst numbers of his career. Starting the 2012 season at 34 years of age, he’ll turn 35 in late August, it’s fair to question just how much juice he has left in the tank (especially since he has two degenerative disks in his lower back that have necessitated multiple cortisone shots in recent years though he has been able to avoid going under the knife).

How bad was Oswalt in 2011? The first thing you will notice when you look at the back of his baseball card is that he won only nine games, just the second time in his 12 year career that he has failed to win in double-digits.

The second thing you’ll likely come across given that low win total is the fact that he pitched only 139 innings. Long tagged as a somewhat injury prone hurler, the fact of the matter is that Oswalt really never deserved that moniker. From 2004-08 he tossed at least 200 innings each season, and from 2004-10 he eclipsed the 180-inning mark each season. I know he is aging, and those back woes aren’t likely to go away, but given his track record a return to the 180-inning level in 2012 has to be seen as at least a plausible outcome, even if the risk is much higher than it would have been two years ago.

As for his performance in 2011, it clearly wasn’t up to his normal standards. However, let me remind you of this. In 2010 Oswalt posted a 2.76 ERA (5th in the NL), 193 Ks (9th) an a 1.03 WHIP which led the Senior Circuit. That’s right, he was an elite arm as recently as 2010, so it would be wise to avoid summarily writing him off this season.

OK, so he was limited last season by injury, but how was his performance when he was on the hill? Let’s break down his efforts by category.

ERA (3.69): A solid mark no doubt, but nearly a half run above his career rate of 3.21. However, his FIP mark was 3.44 which was only slightly above his 3.35 career mark and actually the second best mark of his last five seasons.

WHIP (1.34): Last year was only the second time that Oswalt had a WHIP over 1.25 (the other was 2007 when he posted a 1.33 mark). Part of the blame here obviously falls on the .280 BAA for Oswalt, a career worst and the first time the number had ever been over .265. Given that his line drive rate was 19.3 percent, a point below his career level, might there be some luck involved here? His BABIP mark of .316 was a career worst which might hint at a wee bit of regression in 2012 which could help to lower his WHIP a tad.

K/9 (6.02):  This is the scariest number on this list. A career 7.35 K/9 arm, that barely six per nine mark was a career worst and the first time he has ever been under 6.54 for a season. Given his age, his back woes, and the fact that his average fastball dropped about a mile an a half last season, the days of 175+ strikeouts are gone.

BB/9 (2.14): Though his strikeout total receded, Oswalt just barely missed his career long walk rate of 2.09 per nine. Oswalt doesn’t beat himself, and that should help him to go deep into games and to keep his WHIP at an acceptable level even if he doesn’t pitch great.

GB/FB (1.27): 2011 was a third straight year in the 1.20′s for Oswalt. It’s a level below his his 1.46 career rate, and well below the 1.56 or better mark he posted from 2005-08. Still, his current level is  slightly better than league average and leaves him in a decent spot.

Oswalt is no longer an ace, and he’s not going to be a #2 starter in mixed leagues either. However, given his history, and the fact that he seems to be motivated to continue his career, I wouldn’t bet against him returning to the realm of being a top-40 hurler in 2012. He’ll come with certain risk so make sure you have depth on the hill if you call out his name, but I could see him could end up producing a better effort than he did last season.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Ty Wigginton

Ty Wigginton is like a Honda Civic. A Civic isn’t flashy and it certainly doesn’t impress your date when you roll up to her house in it, yet it’s affordable, always gets you there on time and is as trustworthy an option as there is on the road. That’s Wigginton in a nutshell. He isn’t gonna haul 6,000 lbs., he isn’t going to run to 60 mph in 4.6 seconds, and he certainly isn’t gonna boost season ticket sales, but at the end of the day Wigginton just gets it done. I bring this all up because Wigginton was dealt to the Phillies on Sunday as the Rockies seem intent to give Ian Stewart yet another shot to prove himself at third base (or perhaps they might just turn to Brandon Wood, Chris Nelson or Jordan Pacheco until AFL MVP Nolan Arenado is ready to take over at the hot corner?). Wigginton was dealt, along with cash, for a Player To Be Named Late and/or cash. So why would the Rockies want to rid themselves of their Honda Civic?

Wigginton can play all over the field. He suited up for 27 games in the outfield, 36 at first base, and 68 at third base in 2011. Versatility like that always makes Ty a fine final offensive player on a fantasy club. It also enables him to see a lot of playing time as he can fill in at multiple spot. Given that Placido Polanco and Ryan Howard are both coming off surgeries, the addition of Wigginton makes a lot of sense for the Phils (Placido should be ready for opening day, but most reports suggest that Howard could miss most of April).

What about performance?

Wigginton isn’t going to steal many bases, he has only 41 thefts in his career, but he did swipe eight in 2011, a seven year high. Still, he’s not a speed demon. Wigginton also isn’t a batting average option of renown. Ty has a career batting average of .265, and the last two years he’s failed to hit even .250 (.248 and .242) after a 4-year run of hitting at least .273. The main reason for the drop the last two years is that his hit rate, in the .290′s for his career, has left him with a BABIP of .270 and .271 the past two years. I’m inclined to think that it’s because Ty has lost that little bit extra with his bat speed, something that may be show in the fact that his K-rate has gone up a bit the past two years. He could see some improvement with his BABIP, but it’s not a certainty and would likely be a mild bump.

So I’m painting a portrait of a guy who just isn’t very exciting, but that’s because I’ve left out his best trait – his power. Ty has hit 22 or more homers in four of the past six years, an in five of those six years he’s hit at least 15. Given that he’s averaged just 462 at-bats those six years, his average homer total of 20 a season is pretty darn solid, especially from a guy who qualifies at three positions. Ty has seen some slight regression in his HR/FB the past two years after a peak from 2005-08, but his marks of 12.5 and 13.2 percent the past two years are virtually identical to his career 12.7 mark. He should be fine in terms of the power output in 2012.

So what do you do with Wigginton? At the moment it certainly doesn’t seem like he will have a spot in the every day lineup with the Phillies, so expecting 462 at-bats from him this season is likely asking for too much. As such, Wigginton makes for an ideal option in NL only leagues but a bit of a stretch in mixed leagues unless you are in a 15 teamer. He’ll be solid when he plays, and that flexibility certainly makes him a valuable add in the right circumstance, but don’t go a reaching for the Phillies newest addition.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Michael Cuddyer

Michael Cuddyer is a solid major league player, both on the offensive side of things as well as with the glove. What will the team that signs him to a contract be getting, and what should you expect from him if you roster him in 2012 in the fantasy game?

One of the biggest strengths of Cuddyer is his ability to play, and thereby qualify, at multiple positions on the diamond. In 2012, given a 20 games played minimum in 2011, Cuddyer will qualify at first base (46 games) and the oufield (77 games). Unfortuantely, those are the two worst positions to qualify for considering that’s where so many offensive weapons patrol the landscape. If only he had appeared in a few more games at second base (17). He’ll still qualify at two spots in ’12, but with second and third base out of the mix in most leagues, Cuddyer’s value is diminshed somewhat heading into next season.

In terms of his offensive production, I feel like people often overestimate his impact.

Cuddyer has no real speed. Sure he stole 11 bases in 2011, but it was a career-high. Given that he had never before stolen more than seven bases, it’s a fair bet that we’ll see some regression in 2012, particularly since it’s not often that we see 33 year olds set a career best in the steals category.

Cuddyer is also barely better than your league average type in the batting average category. We are talking about a guy coming off a career best effort of .284, the same mark he also posted in 2006, and .012 points clear of his career batting average of .272. Could he repeat that mark in 2012? Certianly he could. But it bares repeating that he has never hit .285 in a season. He’s also coming off a season with a 0.51 BB/K mark, a direct match for his career rate. He also posted a slightly low 17.8 percent line drive rate. Not only is that line drive rate below the big league average of 19-20 percent, it’s also below Cuddyer’s personal mark of 18.5 percent and it is the third straight season he has failed to post a mark of even 18 percent. Add in a BABIP of .312, a 4-year high and slightly above his career .306 mark, and you can hopefully begin to understand why my picture of Cuddyer doesn’t include an impressive batting average in 2012.

Cuddyer also doesn’t have the power that some might think. There is no dispiuting that that Target Field hasn’t helped as the Park Indices mark for homers at Target Field is 10th in the American League the last two years. Still, Cuddyer has only hit more than 25 homers once in his career, 32 in 2009, and per 550 at-bats in his career we’re talking about a man with a 19 homer rate. It should also be pointed out that three times in the last five years his HR/F ratio has been in the single digits, and that his 12.3 percent career mark is barely better than average.

Adding everything up, Cuddyer is what he is, and that is a very solid, across the board contributor that can help any team. However, just because he has value doesn’t mean he should be someone you should target at the draft table in fantasy baseball. Cuddyer isn’t going to provide much of a boost to your team’s batting average, and he also isn’t likely to steal more than a handful of bases. As I’ve also touched on, his power is solid but far from the elite levels that one hopes for when you’re looking to add a player to handle first base or outfield duties. Obviously if he ends up in a better offensive ball yard surrounded by talented players that will not hurt his fantasy value, but the only way he would have truly been someone to target on draft day 2012 is if he had played three more lousy games at second base.

NOTE: Cuddyer signed a 3-year deal for more than $31 million to join the Rockies. While this might be a best possible scenario for Cuddyer, it doesn’t change the main thrust of this report, especially now that the humidor has sapped some of the offensive potential of hitters. Cuddyer is likely to hit a handful more home runs than initially expected, and his average could push .290 given his new home, but don’t let the ball yard lead you to think that Cuddyer is something that he isn’t.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Ryan Howard

Ryan Howard, the Phillies’ slugger, may or may not be at 100 percent in April as he is attempting to come back from a torn Achilles tendon that he suffered making the Phillies last out of the 2011 season (the optimistic out there  believe he will be ready to play in April though it may take a bit longer). However, as much as the Achilles issue bothers me, I’m more concerned with a slowly deteriorating skill set with the 31 year old first baseman whose best days are already behind him.

THE CONCERNS

(1) As I mentioned, despite only six full seasons at the big league level, Howard is already 31 years old and he turns 32 on November 19th. Given his body type, and this has been brought up a lot in baseball circles, there is a concern that he could lose his skills a bit sooner than others who are more physically fit. These two issues make the 5-year, $125 million extension the Phils signed him to look exceedingly risky.

(2) Howard strikes out in more than a quarter of his at-bats. The number hasn’t gone up in recent years, it’s remained steady, but all those strikeouts certainly mean that his .313 batting average from 2006 will end up being a career best. It should also be pointed out that he has failed to hit .255 in two of the past four years.

(3) His OBP has gone down each of the past two seasons: .360, .353 and .346.

(4) His SLG has gone down each of the past two seasons: .571, .505 and .488.

(5) His .488 SLG percentage and .835 OPS in 2011 were career worsts.

(6) He hasn’t hit 35 homers the past two years after hitting at least 45 in 4-straight seasons.

(7) The last two years he’s failed to reach 120 RBI, this after reaching at least 135 in 4-straight seasons.

(8) The last two years he failed to score 90 runs, the only two times in six full seaosns he has failed to do that.

Now you might say points #7 and #8, the counting stats, are somewhat dependent on others in the Phillies’ lineup so you aren’t ready to “blame” Howard for slippage there. I agree, to a point. Still, he’s not driving in or scoring runs like he did over the first four years of his career, and last time I checked the Phils still have a pretty solid batting order don’t they? The real concern with Howard in the fantasy game is threefold. (A) He’s gonna be lucky to hit .280. (B) He never steals bases. (C) His power is on the decline.

The average major league hitter usually produces something like the following line: 19 percent line drives, 43 percent ground balls and 38 percent fly balls. In Howard’s case his career ratios are 23 percent line drives, 39 percent ground balls and 38 percent fly balls. That’s right. Despite all the homers, the fact of the matter is that Howard simply doesn’t hit that many balls into the air. In truth, his fly ball ratio is the same as the big league average. Given that fact, Howard must convert a substantial portion of his fly balls into home runs toi keep his homer total elevated. If his HR/F ratio were to slip at all, the results would be catastrophic to his homer total since he just doesn’t hit enough fly balls to make up for a lack of conversion. Therefore, when I notice that his HR/F ratio has gone down 3-straight seasons I’m very nervous. Not only has it gone down, but it’s gone way down. Here are his HR/F ratios from his six full seasons.

39.5, 31.5, 31.8, 25.4, 21.1, 21.7

That’s a massive fall off. It’s also the reason why (A) he’s bee in in the low 30′s in homers the past two years and why (B) I think his ceiling in the homer category is 35 homers, not 45 like it was from 2006-09.

So we’ve got an aging, injured first baseman who never steals bases, barely betters the league batting average, and one who’s power seems to be slipping. I’m not predicting a collapse for Howard in 2012, but even if that Achilles of his is healthy, I wouldn’t draft him expecting anything other than the levels that we’ve seen the past two years – his salad days just aren’t coming back.

By Ray Flowers

Arms for the New Year

Just like I did last week in Hot Stove: The Arms Race, I’ll spend my time today detailing some of the hurlers that have found new homes.

The Brandon Webb Saga

Finally. After pretty much every team in baseball was tied to the righty at some point this offseason, Webb will take his surgically repaired shoulder to the AL Champion Rangers in 2011 after agreeing to a 1-year deal with a base salary of $3 million. It should be pointed out that the deal isn’t official, and since it is dependent on Webb passing a physical there is still a chance that the deal could be scuttled, but it appears like the deal will be wrapped up soon.

The Rangers lost Cliff Lee, their only ace level starter, but C.J. Wilson was pretty impressive in his own right last season in his first year as a starter (he had the 10th best ERA in the AL at 3.35). Colby Lewis, who found his groove in Japan, returned to the States with his rhythm intact as he struck out 196 batters, the 7th best mark in the AL. Tommy Hunter went 13-4 last season with an ERA of 3.73 over 23 appearances, and Derek Holland has been the arm of the future for the Rangers for a while now. That would appear to leave the 5th spot for Webb, a great fit for a guy who simply cannot be counted on after throwing four innings the past two years because of shoulder woes.

Texas isn’t a very good place to pitch given that the ballpark was 4th in the AL in allowing runs and 5th in homers according to Park Indices. The good news is that if Webb’s shoulder is back to something near his pre-injury form it likely won’t matter. A ground ball machine because of his sinking fastball, Webb had the highest ground ball rate of any pitcher in baseball who threw at least 500-innings from 2005-08.

Still, there are a plethora of legitimate concerns.

(1) Is he healthy, and if he is, will he be able to return to his pre-injury form?

(2) Even if healthy, will he have the stamina to last 200-innings after basically missing two years?

(3) If he has lost some sink/movement on his pitches, how will the move to Texas impact his performance given that he will be facing the stouter offenses of the Junior Circuit?

What did the Rangers add to their rotation? From a fantasy perspective, don’t by the hype. You can surely take a late shot on Webb if the reports are positive during camp, but keep in mind the potential pitfalls, which are many, before you go reaching for Webb’s services.

One last note. If Webb does indeed return to some semblance of his earlier form, his signing would appear to allow the Rangers their preferred option of once again going with Neftali Feliz in the 9th inning instead of having to shift him back into the rotation to fill a glaring need.

Octavio Dotel to the Blue Jays

It’s not a lock, but multiple sources are reporting that Dotel will sign a 1-year deal for $3.5 million to join the Blue Jays with the assumption being that he will be given the first crack to take over in the ninth inning for free agent Kevin Gregg (who is still looking for a team by the way). For some thoughts on Dotel, make sure you read Hot Stove: The Arms Race, where I pointed out that, despite his faults, that Dotel can still sling it with the best of them.

This move would seem to relegate Jason Frasor, once again, to a setup role. I say once again because this guy has pitched pretty darn well the last two years with a 3.12 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.98 K/9 and a solid 2.81 K/BB ratio. Keep an eye on Frasor. If he can keep the ball on the ground again – his GB-rate was back above his career 44.3 percent mark at 46.4 after back-to-back years below 39 percent – he could easily have another successful campaign and work his way into the 9th inning mix when the inevitable slump hits Dotel.

Takashi Saito Joins Brewers

Saito agreed to a 1-year deal with the Brewers on Monday. He isn’t a threat to John Axford who will, barring something unforeseen, open the year as the Brewers’ undisputed closer, but that doesn’t mean Saito shouldn’t be looked at in the fantasy game.

Saito will be 41 on Valentine’s Day, and that alone would be a big concern. Throw in the fact that he continues to be bothered by on and off again issues with his arm and on the surface he would appear to be off limits. However, whenever his elbow isn’t barking, the guy is dominating. In a big league career of 299.1 innings Saito has produced a 2.19 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 11.00 K/9 mark and a 3.89 K/BB ratio thanks in no small part to that disappearing slider of his. Amid little fanfare, Saito posted an enormous 11.50 K/9 rate and a 1.07 WHIP for the Braves in 2010 signaling that he can still get it done when his body permits.

J.C. Romero Back in Philly

After failing to work things out with Dennys Reyes, the Phillies had a hole in their bullpen for a left-handed specialist. Naturally, they turned to Romero. Despite the fact that the Phils turned down his $4.5 million option for 2011 there was always mutual interest if the price was right. Apparently the two sides found that common ground.

A piece of advice for you if you have a son and are wondering what you should teach him to be when he gets older – make sure you teach him to throw left-handed. Romero keeps getting work year after year, and making millions of dollars, despite the fact that he just isn’t very good. In 628 big league appearances Romero owns a 4.08 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP, decidedly average numbers. He is also well below average with a hideous 5.14 BB/9 mark and a pathetic 1.40 K/BB rate. He can get lefties out, he has held them to a .215 BAA in his career, but even when having that success he really hasn’t all that good with a 3.83 BB/9 mark and a 1.20 WHIP. So hopefully you brought your kid a left-handed glove for the holidays. Clear away the snow and get that kid a throwin.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: Holiday Dealings

Less than a week away from Christmas, plenty of teams are more than willing to open their gifts early. In what follows I’ll touch on a few of the players who have recently decided where they should send their holiday greetings from.

Rick Ankiel: The Nationals took a chance on Monday and signed Rick Ankiel to a 1-year deal worth $1.5 million (there are performance bonuses built in to the deal – reportedly up to $1.25 million). Ankiel will likely battle with Roger Bernadina for playing time in left field, though if Nyjer Morgan doesn’t turn his life around and perform better on the field, the defensively gifted Ankiel could also see time in center field. Ankiel hit .264 with 25 homers in 2008, but over the past two years he has batted a meager .232 with 17 homers. There are plenty of holes in his swing leading to a bushel of strikeouts (once every 3.69 at-bats), but the power is legit. Ankiel has hit a homer every 22.8 at-bats in his career which would equate to 18 homers over the course of 400 at-bats. He’s worth keeping a close eye on in NL-only leagues.

Zack Greinke: I always do what I can to mooch off Ted Carlson, he’s a smart guy and a wonderful writer, so I’m gonna point everyone to his full review of the Greinke to Brewers move in From Blue to Brew. My thoughts? Good for the Brewers. They can now team Greinke with Yovani Gallardo and Shaun Marcum for a fantastic top-3 that rivals the best in the NL. I know I’m gonna hear it from Phillies and Giants fans, so let’s do a side by side comparison of each teams top-3 hurlers based on their 2010 numbers.

Brewers: Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum
Phillies: Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt (sorry Cole Hamels)
Giants: Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez

Brewers: 37-29, 3.90 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.19 K/9 in 600.1 IP
Phillies: 46-32, 3.04 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 7.96 K/9 in 674.2 IP
Giants: 42-30, 3.22 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.77 K/9 in 629 IP

OK, maybe the Brewers threesome didn’t quite matchup, but admit it, it’s a lot closer than you though it would be other than that unsightly ERA, isn’t it?

Austin Kearns: Signed a 1-year deal with the Indians. I joked earlier at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account that Kearns seems to always fool someone into given him 300 at-bats. Looks like it will be the Indians chance this season. I’m not going to deny that Kearns has some talent, but com on now. He is always hurt and frequently doesn’t contribute much of anything above a replacement level type bat, a fact that can clearly be seen when you place his career slash line (.257/.353/.423) against that of the league during his career (.268/.339/.429).

Ricky Nolasco: The Marlins and Nolasco finally agreed on a deal that will buy out his final two years of arbitration and his first year of free agency. His haul comes to $26.5 million over three years. While that seems like a whole lot of cashola for a guy who has posted ERA’s of 5.06 and 4.51 the past two years, I think it’s a great signing for the Marlins. Some facts that cover the last three years (minimum 480 innings pitched).

(1) Nolasco has allowed 10.99 base runners per nine innings, the 16th best mark in baseball and ahead of guys like Matt Cain (11.07), Jon Danks (11.36), Justin Verlander (11.51) and Clayton Kershaw (11.57).

(2) Nolasco has the seventh best K/9 rate in the game at 8.56, better than Dan Haren (8.53), Josh Johnson (8.51), Zack Greinke (8.37) and Ubaldo Jimenez (8.23).

(3) Nolasco is fourth in baseball with a 4.44 K/BB mark. The major league average the past three years is just 2.07.

So how in the world does he have a 4.31 ERA the past three years? Great question, especially when his FIP mark has been 3.77, 3.35 and 3.86 the past three seasons signifying that he is indeed performing at a very high level. Bad luck maybe?

I’ll tell you this. If you asked me where would I draft a guy with a K/9 rate over 8.50 and a K/BB rate of nearly 4.50, I would tell you top-20 amongst starters for sure. In fact, I’d probably be able to make an argument for at least including that arm in my top-15, and that’s exactly why I think the Marlins did so well here – there just aren’t that many pitchers in baseball of baseball who can post a K/9 mark of 8.50 and a K/BB rate of better than 4.40 to one. In fact, over the last three years there have only been two men who have accomplished that feat – Mr. Nolasco and Mr. Haren.

Chan Ho Park: The 37 year old righty is likely done as a big league pitcher after signing a deal with the Orix Buffaloes of Japan. Park, who once allowed two grand slams to Fernando Tatis in one inning (April 23, 1999), would retire from the big leagues with 124 victories and 1,715 strikeouts in just under 2,000 innings (1993). Hopefully he will be content pitching closer to his homeland of Korea.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: Pitchers Dominate the News

Wednesday has been a day filled with plenty of news with most of it focused on the men who take the hill. There’s also a bit in here at the end about that rich guy who will patrol the outfield for the Nationals for those of you looking for a hitting fix.

Rich Harden: The flame throwing righty has reportedly agreed to a one year deal for $1.5 million to return to the club that he began his major league career with – the Athletics (there are another $1.5 million available in incentives). The deal will not become official for a couple of days yet as Harden still has to pass a physical – clearly not a given at this point. Early reports suggest that the A’s are looking at Harden as a bullpen option more than a challenger for a starting role, but you have to think they might be tempted to give him a shot at the 5th starters role. Regardless of where he pitches he is a wild card. Coming off a career worst 5.58 ERA and 7.34 K/9 marks – this guy owns career marks of 3.63 and 9.13 – Harden will be the quintessential late game flier. I’ll tell you this. Even with his average fastball sitting at just 90.5 mph last season, I wouldn’t want to face this guy coming out of the pen. Can you imagine batters trying to get their bats on that heater and his amazingly sinking change up? That sounds like a recipe for success if you ask me.

Cliff Lee Update: The final details of his contract are in. The Phillies will be paying the 32 year old lefty $120 million over five years. There is also a vesting option for $27.5 million (if he doesn’t reach the needed incentives in the deal, he would pickup a $12.5 million buyout meaning the deal comes to at least $135 million over the course of six years). A couple of obvious questions that need to be answered.

Does this signing make the Phillies better? Are you on crack? Of course it does. It not only does that, it makes them World Series favorites.

Does this deal give the Phillies the best starting rotation in baseball? Without a doubt it does.

Was this a smart deal for the team to enter into? This is a serious question that could play out very badly for the Phillies in the long run.

(1) If history is a guide, this was a terrible decision. This was the sixth $100+ million deal ever awarded to a pitcher. Here are the first five with a grade.

CC Sabathia (7 years, $161 million): So far, so good. An incomplete “A.”

Johan Santana (6 years, $135): He was great for one year and then solid in two. He had shoulder surgery and will likely miss half the year though in 201. An incomplete “B-” that grade could get much, much worse.

Barry Zito (7 years, $126 million): He’s stayed healthy and given the team innings. But all you need to know about his value is the fact that he was left off the playoff roster. An incomplete “D+”

Mike Hampton (8 years, $121 million): In a word – awful. “F.”

Kevin Brown (7 years, $105 million): Continually injured, he pitched well when healthy but for the duration of the deal he was merely average. “C-.”

(2) Does it make any sense to give a pitcher a deal that is this long when he is 32 years old? What this deal leads to is that at 35, 36 and 37 years of age Lee will be making $25 million a year. When he is 38 he will make either $12.5 or $27.5 million (depending on whether or not his option is picked up). If you think that sounds like a good idea I bet you are also the fella who would trade Chase Utley for Aaron Hill if he hit .220 in April.

The bottom line is that this signing gives the Phillies a magnificent chance to win the World Series in 2011, but they could pay a dear price in the long run for that short-term success.

Pitchers on the Market: Fausto Carmona, Zack Greinke and Carlos Zambrano

Greinke will be the most costly to acquire of this trio, and I touched on his situation a couple of days ago in Hot Stove: December 13, 2010.

Carmona is being viewed by some clubs as a cheaper fall back option if they aren’t able to get Greinke in a deal. Everyone knows that Carmona is nowhere near as impressive as Greinke, but he also won’t cost near as much to pick up. No matter where he ends up, Fausto just isn’t a very good fantasy option. While he throws an exploding sinker that can lead to wonderful outings, he is also a disaster when it comes to throwing strikes. I’ll give the guy some credit, he did knock his BB/9 mark down to a solid 3.08 last year, but he owns a 3.67 career rate and was over five per nine in 2008 and 2009. Carmona is also far from a strikeout option. In fact, despite throwing 210.1 innings last season, his total of 124 Ks was less than the totals of guys like Kevin Millwood (132) and Kyle Davies (126).

Zambrano is a very intriguing option. The most volcanic personality in the game, Big Z is as capable of throwing a no-hitter as he is likely to vent his childhood frustrations on an unsuspecting Gatorade cooler. The guy is just a flat out mess. At the same time, he rebounded from banishment in late June to allow two or fewer earned runs in each of his last 14 appearances during which time he posted a stellar 1.58 ERA. It likely wouldn’t take a hell of a lot to pry him from the Cubs given that he is due $17.85 million in 2011, $18 million in 2012 and $19.25 million on an option. Clearly if the Cubs want to move him to another club they are going to have to open their wallets big time and pay a large portion of that coin.

Jayson Werth: He was introduced officially at a press conference today, and manager Jim Riggleman mentioned that Werth might be asked to play center field against left-handed pitching. That means a couple of things. First, Nyjer Morgan and Roger Bernadina better not buy a house because they aren’t in the club’s daily plans. Second, Michael Morse could end up getting a lot more playing time than some people think in right field. Don’t overlook Morse. In 618 career at-bats he has hit .291 with 21 homers, 88 RBI and 73 runs scored. He could be a wonderful NL-only option this season.

By Ray Flowers