Player Profile: Hunter Pence

'ESPNWeekend2011-084' photo (c) 2011, Jeff Kern - license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/The San Francisco Giants, for the second time in three years, won the World Championship. Marco Scutaro was amazing throughout, and Barry Zito saved their bacon of excellence on the hill, but the spiritual leader of the Giants was no doubt Hunter Pence. After collecting more than 100 RBIs, in what has roundly called a “down” season, what should we expect from Mr. Pence?

It might surprise some people to note that Pence had 104 RBIs in 2012 (that includes a finishing kick of 45 in 59 games with the Giants despite hitting .219 in the city by the Bay). Not only was that total a career best it was more RBI than Buster Posey (103), the NL MVP. It was also two more RBIs than Matt Holliday and Adrian Beltre, five more than Jay Bruce, eight more than Andrew McCutchen and 10 more than Robinson Cano. Still, Pence’s season was disappointing. Let me count the ways.

Pence hit .253, a career worst.
Pence stole five bases, a career worst.
Pence had a .425 SLG, a career worst.
Pence had a .319 OBP, .020 points below his career average.
Pence had a career worst 21.1 K-rate (145 Ks).
Pence had 26 doubles, tying a career worst.

Why did all of this happen and should we still look at Pence with fondness in the fantasy game?

Why did a guy who had hit at least .282 the previous three seasons, one who owns a career .285 mark, hit .253? Well I already noted the career worst strikeout total, and that certainly played its part. At the same time he walked a bit more than normal and the resulting 0.39 BB/K ratio, while not a good mark, but a dead on match for his career rate. What about his ability to lash the line drive? Same as always there too. In fact, his 17.0 percent line drive rate was the third best mark of his six year career an above his 16.1 percent career mark. Well then what about his BABIP? Though his mark was still a league average .290, that was a career low and well off his normal .321 mark.

The guy might be the most consistent hitter in baseball when it comes to GB/FB ratios. In six years the mark has been between 1.50 and 1.67, and the last four years it has been between 1.60 and 1.67 (it was 1.60 in 2012). Statistically speaking, you just can’t do that, yet he has year after year. Given the totality of his approach, one would have to expect his batting average to rebound next season.

I’ve written this many times about Pence in the past, and what I wrote then still holds now. The guy will never hit 30 homers. Simply put, he hits too many balls on the ground. I just noted his GB/FB ratio which speaks to this. Pence has a ground ball rate between 51.1 and 53.1 percent the past five years. You can’t hit more than half your balls into the ground and be a big home run hitter even if you are as consistent as all get out in the HR/F category as Pence also is (between 14.7 and 16.0 in each of his six seasons). I mean seriously folks, the amount of consistency that Pence puts up year after year in the GB/FB and HR/F categories is simply astounding. It’s no shock that he went deep 24 times in ’12. Do you know how many homers he averaged from 2008-11? Come on now, you know you want to guess. If you guessed 24 you win a big sloppy kiss – not from me but from someone you are attracted to.

So let me boil it down for you.

Pence posted the same GB/FB ratio as he always does in 2012.
Pence posted the same HR/F ratio as he always does in 2012.
Pence posted the same BB/K ratio as he always does in 2012.
Pence hit the exact same about of homers as he always does in 2012.

We can blame his batting average dip as a bit of bad luck in BABIP, an a return to the mean if you will. Pence hit a career best .314 in 2011, a number that isn’t indicative of the player he is. What does Pence hit if you add together his 2011 and 2012 batting average? He ends up hitting .283 the past two years. What is his career average again? Oh that’s right, it’s .285.

I’m telling you folks, the guy’s consistency is unbeatable. There hasn’t been a player in baseball that can match that consistency since Pence graced major league ball fields.

The only area of concern with Pence is his steal total. The first four seasons of his career he never stole less than 11 bases and never more than 18. For those four years he averaged 13.5 steals. The last two seasons he’s only stolen 13 bases. Not an extremely fast runner until he gets his wheels rolling, Pence may never steal 18 bags again, but he still has to be looked at as a 50/50 bet to get back to double-digits in 2013.

Don’t be one of the group of people that will look down on Pence in 2013. Draft him as you normally would despite the dip in his batting average and steal total last season. Chances are pretty good that Pence will be the same player in 2013 that he has always been – a darn good one.


By Ray Flowers

Stocking Stuffers

damon-swing-detroit

My family loves the holidays, and Christmas Eve holds a special place in our hearts. It is the one day of the year that everyone comes together. At last count, that means 29 of us will be at my parents home on Friday to celebrate family, friendship and the holiday. I hope that all of you out there have a place that you will be this weekend, surrounded by friends and loved ones even if you don’t celebrate the holiday.

Now back to our regularly scheduled program.

Does Johnny Damon have anything left?
Word on the street is that the Yankees don’t hate the idea of bring Johnny Damon back to New York. While all fans of the Yankees should be worried about the sad state of their starting lineup, it doesn’t hurt for them to be looking into potentially cheap options to help to bolster their offense. However, would Damon accept a job that basically entailed being a 4th OF option, DH type? With Jorge Posada slated for the starting role at DH, and an outfield of Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher (I’m jealous he married the beautiful Joanna Garcia) and Brett Gardner, there just wouldn’t seem to be any shot at substantial at-bats for another bat with the Yanks. Damon is 429 hits from 3,000. If he were to take a part-time role he would have almost no shot of reaching that historic mark. The question is – does he deserve a full-time role and a shot at history?

Damon hit .271 last season .016 points below his lifetime mark. Was that dip a fluke? I won’t go as far as to say that, but it also isn’t time to panic. He had a 1.19 BB/K mark in ’10, just slightly below his 1.27 career mark. His 18.8 percent line drive rate was slightly below his 20.0 percent career mark, but not hide the women and children bad. Neither of those two numbers says he is finished. Damon also sported an 11.3 BB-rate which tied his career best rate that was, incidentally, posted in ’09. His K-rate of 16.7 percent was poor, the second worst mark of his career, but still a manageable number. In total, Damon really didn’t lose as much last season as it appeared on the surface, especially if you lay part of the blame in his dip in homers on a tough home ballpark in Detroit.

I’m not saying he is going to hit .280 with 15 homers, 90 runs and 20 steals like he used to, but I think he can still get on base, score some runs, and do enough at the dish and on the base paths to help out someone in a full-time role.

Should anyone want Joe Blanton?
When the Phillies added Cliff Lee they broke the bank to set up the most magnificent foursome in the game (you can read about the group in Hot Stove: Lee Isn’t Only Newsmaker). Any team would die to have a fifth starter as talented as Joe Blanton, but apparently the Phillies will need to move him so as to have some money available to address in-season needs in 2011. Blanton is due $8.5 million in each of the next two seasons which is a lot of money for Blanton, or is it? With guys like Ted Lilly and Jorge De La Rosa signing deals that will see them make more than $10 million a year, is Blanton really that bad an option at $8.5 million? The two lefites certainly have better power stuff, and therefore more fantasy upside, but in terms of real world value, it’s a lot closer between the three for the following reason – Blanton racks up innings year after year.

De La Rosa has one season in his career with more than 135-innings pitched.

Lilly has two seasons of 200-IP. He has also gone for 175-innings in each of the last five seasons.

Blanton has gone for 175 innings in each of the past six years, and five times he has thrown at least 194.

Clearly it’s not cartwheel time merely because of the innings totals, but Blanton is the right-handed Barry Zito at half the price, and I can think of a boatload of pitchers that offer less at a more substantial hit to the pocket book. If the Phillies are willing to eat a bit of the money Blanton is due, look for plenty of teams to be interested.

Bruce Chen – any interest?
One of the better free agent pitchers still on the market – who would have thought that would have been an accurate statement 12 months ago – Chen went 12-7 with a 4.17 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP for the Royals. So why did the Royals decide not to retain their biggest winner from 2010? First off, it’s cause they are the Royals. Nuff said. Secondly, they are actually making a smart decision, shockingly, in choosing not to overpay for a guy who really isn’t a very good pitcher. Chen posted a 6.29 K/9 mark in 2010, the second worst total of his 12 year career. He walked 3.66 batters per nine innings – above his 3.53 career mark. The resulting 1.72 K/BB mark is well into the “danger zone” unless that pitcher is a ground ball wonder. Chen isn’t as he has allowed a GB/FB ratio below 0.75 in each of the last four seasons. Chen also posted a below big league average 8.1 percent HR/F rate which just so happens to be a career best and roughly 60 percent of his career mark of 13.3 percent.

Give the Royals credit for not doing anything crazy – like ceding to Chen’s desire for a multi-year deal.

And with that I’m out for the next two days. I want to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and Happy Holiday Season. Give a loved one a hug and a kiss and celebrate the wonder that is this magical time of year.

By Ray Flowers