Around the Horn: January 25th, 2012

YouTube has been a disaster today – really, ever since they merged with Google things haven’t worked right, at least for me. Eventually, there will be a video discussing the below topics – that is if I can ever get my video loaded up on YouTube.

(1) Prince Fielder to the Tigers. What are the implications for him and Miguel Cabrera?

(2) Wilson Betemit to the Orioles.

(3) Bartolo Colon to the A’s.

(4) Yoenis Cespedes ready to find a team.

(5) Edwin Jackson and Roy Oswalt searching for teams.

By Ray Flowers

Part III: Vegas, and the FSTA Draft

My three part series on Las Vegas wraps up today. In PART I thanks was given to many of the people in the industry an I explained some of the exploits that I was a part of over the weekend in Sin City. In PART II I took a look at the team I drafted for the FSTA Experts League that was covered live on air by SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Today I’ll finalize the week in Vegas by giving some thoughts on how the FSTA Draft played out.

For the full results click on FSTA 2012 Experts Draft.

Anthony Perri of Fantistics set the room on fire taking Troy Tulowitzki with the first overall pick. He’s a big believer in position scarcity and put his money where his mouth is. Tim Heaney of KFFL then took Albert Pujols second leaving my #1 guy, Matt Kemp, for Steve Gardner/Howard Kaman of USA Today to grab third overall.

I’d much rather have Prince Fielder at #13 than Adrian Gonzalez at #6.

The 21st overall selection was Mike Stanton. My question is this – should he be taken that high? If he hits .270 with 45 homers and 110 RBI that’s great, but unless he steals 15 bases I don’t think he returns this value, not with his batting average woes. Is he really any different than Adam Dunn in his heyday?

The first pitcher taken was Clayton Kershaw at #23. I don’t have a problem with him going off the board as the top pitcher, but you know me, I’m not a fan of taking a hurler this early.

The third round turned out to be the round of risk. Starlin Castro was taken and he’s dealing with that off the field issue with the ladies. Carl Crawford was taken there as well, and we learned about 13 hours after the draft was completed that Crawford had wrist surgery and that leaves him somewhat doubtful to be good to go on opening day. Another casualty of having a draft this early were Glenn Colton and Rick Wolf who took Victor Martinez in the third. Sixteen hours later we found out that he had a torn ACL that will likely end his season.

Per usual, the experts waited to draft starting pitching. Don’t plan on being able to take Felix Hernandez in the 5th round like Chris Liss of Rotowire did in your draft. CC Sabathia and Cole Hamels also went in the 5th round.

Craig Kimbrel was the first closer off the board. He was taken in the 8th round.

I like Vernon Wells as much as the next guy and can see a comeback this season, but taking him in the 9th round ahead of guys like Chris Young or Billy Butler, who were also taken in the 10th, I’m not a fan of that.

Ron Shandler, who knows this game as well as anyone, has a faith in Cory Leubke taking him ahead of guys like Shaun Marcum, Justin Masterson, Tim Hudson, Hiroki Kuroda etc.

I’m a fan of R.A. Dickey in the 29th round as long as he doesn’t kill himself climbing mountains this offseason.

The best pick of the draft or the worst? The answer to that question is likely to be Javier Vazquez who was taken in round 28 by Fantasy Sharks. If he retires it was a wasted pick, but if he somehow ends up on the hill this season this could be a difference making selection.

How the mighty have fallen. Francisco Liriano was taken in the 26th round. He’s well worth the risk at that point (he was my target for that round). Another perpetually injured an underachieving lefty is Erik Bedard. He was taken in the 22nd.

Justin Smoak in the 12th round? What does Jeff Mans of Fantasy Alarm know that we don’t? I don’t think anyone on his team is old enough to have a five o’clock shadow.

Everyone had a laptop out during the draft but myself and Charlie Wiegert if I’m not mistaken. Old school.

Todd Helton is a shell of his former self, but as a 27th round selection I’ve got no complaint at all.

Jason Bay in the 23rd round sounds absurdly low doesn’t it? He’s gotta be able to outperform that. His teammate, Daniel Murphy, went in the same round. I think that was an excellent selection.

Look at the team from Mastersball. It shows you what you can accomplish when you you take stable players early even if the names don’t jump off the page at you. You end up with a pretty solid squad.

Buster Posey went in the middle of the 6th round. If healthy he will surpass that cost. If he has any setbacks physically that’s gonna be a pick that Liss will be able to look at as one of the reasons his team struggled.

Adam Wainwright in the 8th round? If healthy we’ve seen what he can do, but coming back from Tommy John surgery you can’t be thinking he’s gonna throw 200-innings this year. I’d rather have 9th round guys like Gio Gonzalez, Matt Garza and Madison Bumgarner. Hell, I’d rather have my first four arms.

Keeping the dream alive. Justin Morneau was taken in the 14th while Kendrys Morales went in round 19.

By Ray Flowers

A Look Back at 2011 – Batting

Yesterday I tackled the 2011 performance of pitchers, an if you know me you know that I’m all about symmetry. Today, I’ll break down some of the numbers that stood out for me when I looked at the hitters for 2011. Special thanks to the 2012 Bill James Handbook where a fair amount of the information you are about to read about comes from (I would highly recommend the book for those of you looking for a nice reference tool).

For my review of some of the fascinating pitching numbers see A Look Back at 2011 – Pitching.

Asdrubal Cabrera hit .636 with 13 RBI last year in 11 at-bats with the bases loaded.

Miguel Cabrera led baseball with a 1.047 OPS against right handed pitching. That mark was .001 better than two other first basemen – Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder.

If you were an NL pitcher in 2011 and you were looking to get strike one under your belt then you wanted to see Jamey Carroll come to the dish. Carroll swung at only 6.9 percent of first pitches. The only other NL batter in single digits was Martin Prado (9.8). As for those that did let her rip on the first pitch three names topped 40 percent: Yadier Molina (40.7), Aramis Ramirez (40.6) and Freddie Freeman (40.1).

If you were a curveball specialist you didn’t want to see the Diamondbacks on your schedule as Chris Young and Justin Upton were 1-2 in the NL in OPS against the curveball (1.149 and 1.148). If you relied on the slider, you certainly didn’t want to see the Reds or the Phillies in the other dugout as the Phillies had three guys in the top-5 in the NL in OPS (Shane Victorino 1.111, John Mayberry 1.060 and Jimmy Rollins 1.060) while the Reds had three in the top nine (Ryan Hanigan 1.036, Jay Bruce 1.036 and Chris Heisey 1.014).

Jacoby Ellsbury led the American League, and baseball, with 364 total bases. Teammate Adrian Gonzalez was second in the AL with 345 while Matt Kemp led the NL at 353.

Prince Fielder hit the longest home run in the NL at 486 feet. That’s hardly a surprise. However, the only other NL player with a homer over 480 feet was Juan Francisco of the Reds who hit on 482 feet on September 12th. No AL batter put one into the seats at a distance of at least 480 feet.

Derek Jeter failed to hit .300 as he finished at .297 for the Yankees. Blame his work against righties (.277) as he killed lefties to the tune of a .347 mark. For his career he’s hit .336 against lefties and .305 against the righties.

Matt Kemp loved seeing a lefty on the hill in 2011. His OPS of 1.142 was the best in the National League against southpaws. That mark was just behind the 1.156 OPS  of Jose Bautista against port siders, the AL leading total.

Victor Martinez led baseball with a .394 batting average with runners in scoring position. He also posted a .990 OPS in those 155 at-bats. He didn’t slump much either when the situation was a runner in scoring position with two outs. In that scenario he hit .375 with a .930 OPS (72 at-bats).

Dustin Pedroia saw 3,077 pitches, the most in baseball. Only one other batter was over 2,900 and that was Curtis Granderson at 3,069.

There was only one leadoff hitter in baseball, who had a minimum of 150 plate appearances in that spot, who posted an on base percentage of .400. It was Brandon Phillips of the Reds at .417. Surprisingly the AL leader wasn’t Jacoby Ellsbury who was second at .381. The fella in the Junior Circuit with the best mark was the Royals… Alex Gordon at .383.

There wasn’t a single batter in the NL who was under the age of 26 that posted an OPS of .900. The leader was Justin Upton at .898 followed closely by Mike Stanton (.893) and Carlos Gonzalez (.889).

By Ray Flowers

Wrapping Up The Winter Meetings

As we wrap up the wild and wooly week that was dominated by the Angels and the Marlins, there are still plenty of newsworthy stories that we need to keep an eye on.

Gio Gonzalez is coming off two impressive seasons for the A’s as an innings eating, K machine (at least 200 innings and 171 strikeouts each of the last two years). He’s also won 31 games for a less than elite club in Oakland, and he’s a 26 year old left hander. So of course the A’s are looking to deal him. I get it, the A’s don’t have a lot of options since they are not exactly flush with cash, but what’s the point of having a club if you have to deal exactly the type of players that you should be building around? There is also a growing belief that the A’s and D’backs might work out a deal centered around Trevor Cahill.

Hiroki Kuroda is still looking for a home. It’s hard to tell if the reason he hasn’t signed is because teams fell that his heart really isn’t in it, i.e. that he wants to return to Japan, or if Kuroda is just being super picky about where he’ll sign.

Matt Moore is the best pitching prospect in baseball, a fact I spoke to in my Around the Horn Video from September 23rd (I compared him to Stephen Strasburg). The world saw that potential start to be realized late in the playoffs and the Rays, never one to ignore talent, have taken a big risk that could end up being a huge win for the team. The Rays signed Moore, who has just 9.1 innings of regular season work to his name, to a 5-year, $14 million deal (there are also three option years in the deal that could extend the contract out to $37.5 million over eight years, an a couple of escalator clauses could actually boost the total value up to $40 million). It’s a huge risk given his youth an inexperience, the Rays are saying their prayers that he doesn’t end up turning into Scott Kazmir, but if we’re six years down the road and Moore has been an All-Star four times, it will be a huge win for the club.

The Twins are operating under the assumption that Justin Morneau will be able to return to playing first base next season. Don’t count me in that group. As I said all offseason last year, I had no interest in adding Morneau to my fantasy squad, an unfortunately I was right (he appeared in only 69 games). For the Twins to expect the oft injured one to be handle first base duties is asking too much if you ask me. They’d be better off just sticking him at DH and letting him help the club with his bat.

Carlos Pena is a mere consolation prize for whomever doesn’t add Prince Fielder, but given that there could be a $100 million difference between their contracts, maybe he isn’t that bad a fall back option. Pena’s career batting average is pathetic (.239), an as I’ve written before he’s hit under .230 the last three seasons, but he is a legit power bat. The Cardinals, who now have an opening at first base, are reportedly kicking the tires.

Francisco Rodriguez apparently didn’t like what he was hearing from the marketplace, so he decided to accept the Brewers offer of arbitration. Given that the Brewers aren’t very likely to be pleased about paying a setup man $13 million a year (that’s the estimate of what K-Rod will get in arbitration), it’s hardly a surprise that the Brewers are engaging in talks with multiple teams about the setup man who wants to be a closer.

And finally, the Cubs and Rockies worked out a deal that involved Ian Stewart going to the Cubs along with Casey Weathers for Tyler Colvin and D.J. LeMahieu. Colvin has some nice pop, he’s hit 26 homers with 78 RBI and 78 runs in 581 career at-bats, but he really struggled last year hitting just .150 with a .509 OPS in 206 at-bats. The Rockies figure to give him some time in the outfield and at first base. As for Stewart, he’ll be given a chance to compete for the opening at third base with Aramis Ramirez no longer in the mix. A talented hitter with prodigious power, Stewart is a strikeout machine that simply hasn’t been able to figure out big league pitching. Still, he’s only 26 years old, so perhaps a chance to play on a regular basis will allow the former first round draft pick to finally find his footing at the big league level.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: December 7th, 2011

Rumors are flying at the Winter Meetings, but there are a few deals that have actually been completed.

Huston Street was believed to have been dealt to the Padres as the club from southern California was thought to have done a great job covering up for the loss of Heath Bell to the Marlins. However, reports are now circulating that not only is the deal not complete but the Rockies are still in active negotiations with at least one other team about Street. We’ll wait an see how this plays out, but it’s a certainty that Street will be dealt as the Rockies feel confident that Rafael Betancourt can handle the 9th inning.

*UPDATE: The deal sending Street to the Padres was finally ratified. Street will serve as the closer for the Padres in 2012.

Erik Bedard is an impressive hurler when he is capable of dragging his weary bones onto the field. Last season he may have gone 5-9 but he also posted a 3.62 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and an 8.70 K/9 mark proving how effective he could be. However, the downside is that he only made 24 starts covering 129.1 innings (his biggest innings pitched mark in four seasons). The Pirates have decided to look past the litany of injuries to sign Bedard to relatively painless 1-year deal for $4.5 million. It’s a nice signing if he can stay healthy.

Frank Francisco has agreed to a 2-year deal with the Mets with reports suggesting he will be paid about $12 million. The Mets also signed Jon Rauch to help to bolster their bullpen, but the arm to target in the fantasy game is Francisco. The projected closer in 2012, Francisco owns an electric arm but he’s struggled to stay healthy and consistent when on the mound. Still, the guy has 368 Ks in 334 career innings, and the past three years he’s brought his walk total down to the major league average (3.01 per nine). He’s got a chance to be a solid closer for the Metropolitans.

Nate McLouth signed a 1-year deal with the Pirates for a reported $1.75 million. McLouth had his greatest success as a Pirate before a couple of somewhat troubled seasons in Atlanta where his production was terrible and he struggled to stay healthy. Still just 30 years old, McLouth was a fantasy standout just a few seasons ago as he averaged 23 homers, 99 runs scored, 82 RBI and 21 steals over the 2008-09 campaigns.

The Giants and Mets made a deal that saw them exchange outfielders that have followed similar paths. The deal is this: the Giants receive Angel Pagan while the Mets pick up Andres Torres and Ramon Ramirez. The reliever, Ramirez, is a solid NL-only arm in the fantasy game, but this deal is all about the outfielders. In 2010 both were fantasy all-stars, but both slumped in 2011. Torres has more power than Pagan, but his OPS dropped to .643 last season as he looked lost for long stretches of time. Pagan, who hit .290 and stole 37 bags in 2010, fell to .262 with 32 steals last season. Given the dearth of athleticism in the Giants’ lockeroom Pagan figures to hit at the top of the order for the G-Men. For the Giants sake, I certainly hope they don’t think that adding Pagan and Melky Cabrera gives them enough offense to compliment their wonderful pitching.

Still Twisting

Albert Pujols is apparently leaning toward returning to St. Louis as reports suggest that the Cards and Marlins both offered him very similar contracts.

Prince Fielder is the bat that teams will focus on adding when the Pujols situation is resolved. I’ve been hearing that the Blue Jays, Mariners and Marlins (if they lose out on Pujols) might be the two most aggressive teams to add the portly slugger.

Andrew Bailey and Gio Gonzalez are said to be available, but teams will have to “overpay” the Athletics to add their services. At the moment, it looks like the market for Gonzalez is more active.

Aramis Ramirez to the Brewers is the hot rumor right now. It makes a lot of sense given that Prince Fielder will not be back and that the Brew Crew do not want to have to count on Casey McGehee rebounding in 2012.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: December 5th, 2011

I intended to do a video today but for some reason, likely the incessant partying I’ve been doing at bars of late, my voice decided to rebel leaving me sounding like Peter Brady of the Brady Bunch.

Jose Reyes and the Marlins have agreed to a 6-year, $106 million deal. He’ll likely bat leadoff for the Mets, an it appears almost certain that he will play shortstop for the Marlins moving Hanley Ramirez to third base. Obviously adding third base eligibility for Hanley would substantially increase his value, especially in those leagues that use middle and corner infielders. Reports are good that Hanley’s rehab with his shoulder are going well. The real issue here is will he allow his feelings to be hurt and mope because he’s being asked to switch positions, or, will he come into camp healthy and with his head on straight, ready to team with Reyes as the most dynamic top of the order duo in the game?

Albert Pujols/Prince Fielder: Everyone is waiting for these two big fish to choose a home. I find it impossible to believe that the Marlins are still in on Pujols despite what reports say (are they really going to dish out more than $275 million in contracts this offseason? Don’t forget, they have already added Heath Bell). The Cubs might offer to make Pujols the highest paid player on a yearly basis, even if they aren’t willing to give him 8-10 years like he would like. Fielder, seems like he’s just laying in the weeds waiting for his $150 million.

C.J. Wilson wants $100 million. It’s looking like he could get it too. Reports suggest that the Marlins and Angels, and two other mystery clubs, already have offers on the table for Wilson. The best hurler on the market, I broke down his prospects for 2012 in his Player Profile.

Aramis Ramirez is the best third baseman in the market, and after the two first baseman I mentioned above, he’s the best bat available on the infield. The Angels, Brewers and Phillies are all believed to have serious interest in Aramis after the 33 year old hit 26 homers with 93 RBI last season for the Cubs.

Jimmy Rollins hit 16 homers, knocked in 63 runs, scored 87 times and stole 30 bases for the Phillies proving that he is far from washed up. At 33 years of age he realizes this will be his last big contract, and he’s looking at someone to give him five years on a deal. The Phils have repeatedly stated that they will not go five years to keep him.

Rafael Furcal had an appendectomy last week. He will be fine for the start of the season, now he just needs to find a place to play. He’s seeking at least a two year deal, not an unreasonable request for the 34 year old.

Josh Willingham has nine teams interested in his services if you believe the report by Jerry Crasnick (I have no reason whatsoever to doubt the veracity of the report). Why all the interest in a guy who hit .246 with just a .332 OBP in 2011? Because the guy can power the ball. Josh hit 29 homers with 98 RBI last season and figures to have a few more years of production near that level if he can stay healthy enough to remain on the field (he’s averaged just 121 games a season the past four years).

Hiroki Kuroda wanted to remain with the Dodgers, but with the Dodgers signing Chris Capuano to a 2-year deal the belief is that the Dodgers no longer have an interest in bringing back the righty. Rumors have long circulated that is was L.A. of bust for Kuroda – meaning he was would return to Japan if the Dodgers didn’t bring him back – but teams like the Angels, Cubs and Rockies are known to have an interest.

Nate McLouth might end up back where it all started. After failing miserably in his time in Atlanta, the oft injured outfielder apparently is drawing some interest from his former team in Pittsburgh. Just 31 years old an only two seasons removed from 20 homers, 19 steals, 70 RBI and 86 runs scored, McLouth is the ideal cheap signing that could yield an excellent return on investment.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Positional Review – First Base

You remember back to March when I gave away all my position player rankings for free, right? For those of you who want to revisit my greatest hits, here’s where you would go to get all my rankings for hitters – 2011: BBGuys Hitter Capsules.

I’m nothing if not accountable, so I’ll review my top-10 predictions at each position as well as point out my biggest “hit” outside of the top-10 and my biggest “bust.” This should be fun.

CATCHERS

2011 FIRST BASE Top-10
1 Albert Pujols
2 Joey Votto
3 Mark Teixeira
4 Miguel Cabrera
5 Prince Fielder
6 Adrian Gonzalez
7 Kevin Youkilis
8 Adam Dunn
9 Ryan Howard
10 Paul Konerko

Pujols‘ run at history, which I wrote about in On the Cusp, fell just short as he ended the year with a .299 batting average, 37 homers, 99 RBI and 105 runs scored. An impressive season for a mortal, but a disappointing effort for Pujols.

Votto wasn’t as good as he was during his MVP effort but it was pretty damn close. He posted a .324-37-113-106-16 line in 2010 and followed it up with .309-29-103-101-8 this season.

Teixeira blasted 39 homers and drove in 111 runs for the Yankees giving them the power they expected.   Unfortunately he scored “only” 90 runs, and for the second straight season he hit under .260 as he limped home to a career worst .248 mark.

Cabrera was as he always is, fantastic. I admit it, my concerns over his drinking issues were apparently unfounded. I touched on that in Braun: Best of the Bunch.

Fielder was second in the NL in homers (38), RBI (120) and OBP (.415) while he was third in OPS (.994). Someone is going to get awfully rich this offseason.

Gonzalez proved me half right, and half wrong. You can learn more by reading Player Profiles: 2011 Review.

Youkilis was limited all year by injury and his final line looks pretty bad (.258-17-80-68-3). Still, he was on pace to hit more than 20 homers with 100 RBI while his OBP was .373, not bad for a down season. He should be at full health next season.

Dunn fell off more than virtually any player in recent memory (Andruw Jones was close a few years back). Dunn was unquestionably the biggest failure in the game in 2011 as he hit .159 with 11 homers over 415 at-bats. I literally felt a sickness in my stomach well up writing that sentence.

Howard hit his 33 homers and had 116 RBI, but he also hit a mere .253 and scored just 81 runs. He could easily miss the start of the 2012 season as well since he ruptured his Achilles tendon on the final play of the season for the Phillies.

Konerko was strong yet again hitting .300 with 31 homers and 105 RBI. He has no speed, it’s almost surprising that he stole a base, and despite playing 149 games with a .388 OBP he scored only 69 runs for the White Sox.

Hit: Freddie Freeman #25
Freeman took a while to get going, if we remove his .225 April he hit .293 the rest of the way, an in the end he batted .282 with 21 homers and 76 RBI for the Braves. Hey, it’s first base where everyone can hit. It was hard to find a guy who really stood out past the top-15.

Bust: Dunn
U-n-b-e-l-i-e-v-a-b-l-e.

By Ray Flowers

Answering Your Questions

People ask me questions every day, and I do my best to give a thoughtful, and hopefully well reasoned, answer to each of them. In what follows I’m going to answer some of the questions that were posted in the COMMENTS section of the Around the Horn, July 21st article.

What the outlook on Adam Wainwright for next year? Is he worthy on a keeper position in a 12 league (10 keepers)? Or would Jair Jurrjens or is Max Scherzer be a safer bet?
– Josh

It sounds like Wainwright is ahead of schedule in his return from Tommy John surgery. All reports point to him being full healthy and ready to go by Opening Day 2012 (in fact, there are rumors floating that he might even be able to help the Cardinals this year if they make the playoffs). Wainwright had 39 wins in 2009-10, the second best total in baseball (one behind CC Sabathia). He also worked 463.1 innings, 6th in the game. You can’t expect him to go out there and toss 230 innings in his first year back, but with 2-straight years with an ERA under 2.65, and back-to-back 200 K seasons, it would be pretty tough not to protect him given that you keep 10 guys. Scherzer is healthier, of course, but his upside at the moment may not be the levels that Wainwright reached the last two years. Jurrjens has been spectacular, but as I continue to say, he just doesn’t have the skills to keep this up long term. I’d keep Wainwright.

Ray… what do u think of this trade Travis Hafner, Desmond Jennings, Rickie Weeks and Michael Young for Prince Fielder, Roy Halladay and Nick Markakis. 5 x 5 12 team roto. I don’t know if I’m just jealous the person didn’t trade with me or the trade was lopsided.
– Brian

I say it all the time, I don’t like deals that are this big – there are just too many parts to get a great read on the situation.

Hafner is locked into the UT spot, and for all his good with the stick, he just can’t stay healthy. Jennings has elite speed, and has shown more pop than expected in Triple-A this year, but he continues to be dogged by injuries. When will he be up? We all thought he would have been a month and a half ago. Weeks is an elite second baseman. Young is a solid hitter, .300 is always a reasonable expectation, and he qualifies at multiple spots.

Prince Fielder is a total beast, ditto Roy Halladay, and Nick Markakis it hitting .319 over his last 69 games. If this is a re-draft league I totally agree with you. This deal is completely unfair, obnoxiously so actually.

Evan Longoria is nursing an injury in his leg. Would you be worried he gets shut down early this year? Are you scared this injury could hurt him significantly in future years. Would you be scared if you owned him in a keeper league? Do you think Eric Hosmer has Ryan Braun/Joey Votto/Justin Morneau upside in a few years?
– Thomas

I don’t worry about Longoria being shut down unless he’s going to do long-term danger to himself. Of course, I’m not a doctor, and I didn’t stay at a Holiday Inn last night, so I really don’t know. I’m certainly not concerned about injuries being a long-term issue.

As for Hosmer, he could hit .295 with 22 homers and 77 RBI, the numbers of Morneau over his last 509 at-bats. However, I’m not going to sit here and say he’s gonna hit .320 with 35 homers like Braun and Votto as that would be unfair to Hosmer if he settles in as a .300-25 guy. Could Hosmer get to that upper level? Sure, but remember, you can count on one hand, two at the most, the guys that could go .320-35 year after year. I’s a very small group.

I need ERA, WHIP, K’s – my staff is Michael Pineda, Jeremy Hellickson, Yovani Gallardo, Johnny Cueto and Max Scherzer. I am scared of both Pineda and Hellickson inning limits so thinking of offering Hellickson, Howie Kendrick, Eric Hosmer for Cole Hamels, Alexi Casilla, Travis Snider…good move?
– Scott

Pineda could have his innings limited. In fact he likely will according to the Mariners. Hellickson, not so worried about him and the innings, but he could have his workload curtailed.

Kendrick is a .300 hitter with some pop, speed, and qualification at positions all over the field. Hosmer is a solid bat, but in a non-keeper league he isn’t close to being a top flight first baseman option. Hamels is elite. No reason to expect a drop-off moving forward. Casilla is hitting only .247 with a .290 OBP and two steals the last month. Snider is killing it, .326 with two homers and 14 RBI the past two weeks.

You’re giving up a ton of talent to get an ace. However, this move would fit your need, though I’d be reluctant to do it.

I was just wondering your opinion on two players. I recently got Melky Cabrera and Mark Trumbo on my team thru trade and free agency, respectively. What do you think about these players? Can they keep up their numbers the rest of the way? I think Melky is real interesting because before I got him I didn’t realize how young he was as it seemed like he’s been playing forever, all those years with the Yankees. Now he’s putting up great 5 cat numbers. Is he just coming into his own? And Trumbo, will he hit a wall soon?
– Jackson

Melky is on pace to produce a 5×5 line of .294-19-89-100-23. Every one of those numbers would be a career best. He’s doing tall that despite a career worst walk rate an a career high strikeout rate. He’s also bettered his career OBP by a mere .002 points (it’s a league average .331). His GB/FB ratio is 1.55, an exact match for his career level. Oh, his HR/F ratio is 11.1 percent, a massive increase on his career rate (6.8). Cabrera isn’t as good as he has looked. He’s basically doing what he always does, with never before seen power that I doubt will continue. He’s also a trade option, and I could see him getting dealt to a team where he plays four out of five days which would diminish his value. He’s not a 20 homer bat, he’s not a 20 steal runner, and he’s not a .300 hitter despite what we’ve seen to this point.

Trumbo is having a nice season. With 18 homers and 44 RBI in 320 at-bats, he’s on pace to end the year with 29 homers and 72 RBI which would be wonderful numbers for a rookie. There’s no reason to expect him to hit a wall simply because the calendar is ready to move to August in a week and a half. He’s done a decent job with a strikeout per 4.32 at-bats, though he isn’t drawing many walks (5.2 BB-rate). He’s not likely to see his batting average increase much (.259) given that, but he should continue to pound the long ball.

By Ray Flowers

Two Weeks

photo © 2009 petercruise | more info (via: Wylio)

Everyone always likes to take things out of context. Come on, admit it, you’ve done it yourself.

Player A goes 6-for-10 and you want to add him to your club even though he hit .218 last year.

Player B throws a shutout and you want to add him at the cost of a guy who has 175 Ks last year.

Britney Spears is a great singer. Well, if the “context” is me and her in a direct competition, than she is a great singer.

(For more on the idea of “context” make sure you give Context Revisited a read).

Today the context that we will use is FOURTEEN DAYS as in the last 14 days of the 2011 season. When we look at that tiny sample size just look at the craziness that we find.

* Ben Zobrist leads all of baseball with 16 runs scored in just 12 games played. He’s totally going to score more than 210 runs this season. Freddy Sanchez and Aramis Ramirez haven’t scored a single run the past 14 days.

* Mark Ellis and Miguel Tejada haven’t knocked in a single run the past two weeks. Lance Berkman has 17 RBI.

* Adam Lind leads baseball with six homers and he’s second with 15 RBI. To compare, Adrian Gonzalez has three homers and 12 RBI. Is there a single person out there who would prefer to have Lind over A-Gone on their team? If you raised your hand “yes” on that one then your must be related to Lind.

* Prince Fielder is hitting .149, the same mark as Starlin Castro. Anyone want to take me up on my bet that Matt Joyce (.457) doesn’t nearly triple those two in batting average this season?

* Troy Tulowitzki, you remember, the guy everyone was saying would be the most productive fantasy player in the game about three weeks ago after his massive start to the year, has hit .093 the past two weeks. He’s also posted an OPS of .426 in that time. Tulo’s career SLG is higher than that at .497.

* Colby Lewis has a HR/9 mark of 2.57. Anyone out there think that they Lewis is going to end the year with HR/9 mark more than double double previous his previous level (it was 0.94 last year)?

* Rarely is there ever an absolute in the world, but in this case there certainly is one. Shaun Marcum, Jason Hammel, Jhoulys Chacin and Josh Tomlin have 100 percent left on base percentage marks the past two weeks. Given that no one is perfect, and that the big league average is usually right around 70 percent, you know which way this number is going for all for men – drastically downward.

* The last two weeks five pitchers in baseball have an ERA under 1.00 – Shaun Marcum, Trevor Cahill, Jason Hammel, Vance Worley and Madison Bumgarner. It’s possible that at the end of the year that this five-some of arms will have a combined ERA of 4.00.

* I know that Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball, but I’m fairly certain he won’t be able to maintain his 18.00 K/BB rate from the past two weeks. I’m also going to go out on a limb and say that Daniel Hudson (17.00) and David Price (14.00) won’t be able to keep up their paces either. How can I say that? The single season record, for a minimum of 162 innings pitched, is 11.00 by Bret Saberhagen in 1994.

Remember folks – context and sample size are key. If you focus to so closely on what is right in front of you there might be situations that arise in which you actually think that Britney Spears is a great singer. Pay attention to what is going on at all times, but never lose site of the context.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April 21, 2011

(1) Ryan Braun signs massive contract extension.

(2) Logan Morrison likely headed to the DL with a foot injury.

(3) Gordon Beckham, Brent Morel really struggling.

(4) Ryan Zimmerman (abdominal strain) unlikely to return next Tuesday.

(5) Brandon Morrow off DL – will start Saturday.

(6) Bartolo Colon looks good in first start.

(7) Willie Bloomquist starting to slow.

By Ray Flowers