Two Weeks

photo © 2009 petercruise | more info (via: Wylio)

Everyone always likes to take things out of context. Come on, admit it, you’ve done it yourself.

Player A goes 6-for-10 and you want to add him to your club even though he hit .218 last year.

Player B throws a shutout and you want to add him at the cost of a guy who has 175 Ks last year.

Britney Spears is a great singer. Well, if the “context” is me and her in a direct competition, than she is a great singer.

(For more on the idea of “context” make sure you give Context Revisited a read).

Today the context that we will use is FOURTEEN DAYS as in the last 14 days of the 2011 season. When we look at that tiny sample size just look at the craziness that we find.

* Ben Zobrist leads all of baseball with 16 runs scored in just 12 games played. He’s totally going to score more than 210 runs this season. Freddy Sanchez and Aramis Ramirez haven’t scored a single run the past 14 days.

* Mark Ellis and Miguel Tejada haven’t knocked in a single run the past two weeks. Lance Berkman has 17 RBI.

* Adam Lind leads baseball with six homers and he’s second with 15 RBI. To compare, Adrian Gonzalez has three homers and 12 RBI. Is there a single person out there who would prefer to have Lind over A-Gone on their team? If you raised your hand “yes” on that one then your must be related to Lind.

* Prince Fielder is hitting .149, the same mark as Starlin Castro. Anyone want to take me up on my bet that Matt Joyce (.457) doesn’t nearly triple those two in batting average this season?

* Troy Tulowitzki, you remember, the guy everyone was saying would be the most productive fantasy player in the game about three weeks ago after his massive start to the year, has hit .093 the past two weeks. He’s also posted an OPS of .426 in that time. Tulo’s career SLG is higher than that at .497.

* Colby Lewis has a HR/9 mark of 2.57. Anyone out there think that they Lewis is going to end the year with HR/9 mark more than double double previous his previous level (it was 0.94 last year)?

* Rarely is there ever an absolute in the world, but in this case there certainly is one. Shaun Marcum, Jason Hammel, Jhoulys Chacin and Josh Tomlin have 100 percent left on base percentage marks the past two weeks. Given that no one is perfect, and that the big league average is usually right around 70 percent, you know which way this number is going for all for men – drastically downward.

* The last two weeks five pitchers in baseball have an ERA under 1.00 – Shaun Marcum, Trevor Cahill, Jason Hammel, Vance Worley and Madison Bumgarner. It’s possible that at the end of the year that this five-some of arms will have a combined ERA of 4.00.

* I know that Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball, but I’m fairly certain he won’t be able to maintain his 18.00 K/BB rate from the past two weeks. I’m also going to go out on a limb and say that Daniel Hudson (17.00) and David Price (14.00) won’t be able to keep up their paces either. How can I say that? The single season record, for a minimum of 162 innings pitched, is 11.00 by Bret Saberhagen in 1994.

Remember folks – context and sample size are key. If you focus to so closely on what is right in front of you there might be situations that arise in which you actually think that Britney Spears is a great singer. Pay attention to what is going on at all times, but never lose site of the context.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April 21, 2011

(1) Ryan Braun signs massive contract extension.

(2) Logan Morrison likely headed to the DL with a foot injury.

(3) Gordon Beckham, Brent Morel really struggling.

(4) Ryan Zimmerman (abdominal strain) unlikely to return next Tuesday.

(5) Brandon Morrow off DL – will start Saturday.

(6) Bartolo Colon looks good in first start.

(7) Willie Bloomquist starting to slow.

By Ray Flowers

Did You Know…

I throw up one of these pieces every once in a while, an as we all head off to our 2010 Turkey Day celebrations I thought it apropos to look back and give thanks for some rather interesting production from the men on the diamond

Did You Know… Jose Bautista scored 49.5 percent of his runs by knocking himself in as he went deep 54 times while scoring 109 runs (the homers led baseball, the runs were 6th)? Albert Pujols, who led baseball with 115 runs, only knocked himself in 36.5 percent of the time. The only player who scored 100 runs this season while hitting less than 10 homers was the Tigers’ Austin Jackson who scored 103 times while hitting just four long balls.

Did You Know… Ian Desmond led baseball with 34 errors, seven more than any other player (Starlin Castro, 27 errors)? Castro may have caught him if he had played a full compliment of games as the Cubs’ shortstop suited up for only 123 games, 27 less than Desmond. These young shortstops both have bright futures, but both could stand to tidy things up on defense.

Did You Know… Prince Fielder was the only player in baseball to hit under .265 while posting an OBP of at least .380? Fielder hit just .261 though his 114 walks – the most in baseball – helped him to a .401 OBP. Moreover, he was the only player in baseball to post an OBP of at least .395 who didn’t hit at least .300. Yeah he had a “down” year, but Fielder was pretty darn productive despite the prevailing wisdom that he was awful because he had only 83 RBI.

Did You Know… Jeff Keppinger had the best BB/K mark in baseball amongst qualifiers (502 plate appearances) with a 1.42 mark? He was followed by arguably the two best hitters in baseball in Albert Pujols (1.36) and Joe Mauer (1.23), who in turn were followed by the only two other men in baseball who posted a mark of at least 1:1 (Daric Barton – 1.23, Chase Utley – 1.00). At the other end of the spectrum we have Andruw Jones at 0.19. If we had seven Andruw Jones and we added them together that we would still come up short of the mark of Keppinger (1.33 to 1.42).

Did You Know… Juan Pierre led baseball with 18 caught stealing attempts? Of course, he also led baseball with 68 steals so we can overlook the CS run. Still, 18 is a pretty big number when you consider that he was caught stealing more times than Nelson Cruz or Jimmy Rollins were successful (they each had 17 steals).

Did You Know… Albert Pujols is more than just a hitter as he actually led baseball in putouts (1,458), total chances (1,619) and double plays (146) in the field? He also made only four errors on the year leading to a .998 fielding percentage once again showing that he might be the most complete player in baseball – even if the talk of his greatness is usually limited to his work at the dish.

Did You Know… Mark Reynolds is the only player in baseball who hit at least 30 homers in 2010 yet failed to rap out at least 23 doubles? Reynolds had only 17. Given that he hit 28 and 30 the previous two years, his ’10 effort has to be seen as a downer. Of course, he also fell from 24 steals to just seven, while his average fell .044 points below his career rate of .242, so it wasn’t just the loss of doubles that led many a Reynolds owner to consider hitting the bottle at 11 AM in the morning through most of the 2010 season.

By Ray Flowers

Review: First Round, 2010

The first round of any fantasy draft is huge. There’s no surer way to ruin your fantasy season than to blow your first round pick on an under performing player, or one who ends up injured. At least that is conventional wisdom around most parts. However is it true when so many first round choices, year after year, fail to live up to expectations?

Here is a review of the first round for the National Fantasy Baseball Championship draft we did for our 2010 Annual Fantasy Baseball Magazine. How did our top-15 choices play out now that the 2010 season is complete (the NFBC’s main event is made up of 15-team leagues)?

One final note, in parenthesis is the ranking that each player finished the 2010 season with according to our Player Rater tool. If a player has “miss” after his name, he failed to finish in the top-50.

1- Albert Pujols (2nd)
In 10 years he has never, not once, failed to go at least .312-32-103-99. This year he was far better at .312-42-118-118-14.

2- Hanley Ramirez (11th)
He was a bit disappointing with just 21 homers an a mere .300 average, but he still went 20/30 while scoring more than 90 runs.

3- Alex Rodriguez (48th)
Potentially never has such a powerful season – 30 homers and 125 RBI – seemed so disappointing. A-Rod hit only .270, scored just 74 runs and stole a piddly four bags.

4- Ryan Braun (12th )
He failed to hit 30-homers for the first time with 25, but he still hit .304 with 103 RBI, 101 runs and 14 steals. He has been dynamic in his four year career.

5- Chase Utley – MISS
Injury limited him to 115 games, and the results was his first season with less than 22 homers, 93 RBI and 93 runs scored in six seasons (.275-16-65-75-13).

6- Mark Teixeira – MISS
He hit a terrible .136 in April and never really got on track finishing at .256 (career .286). He still was able to put up another 30-100 season though (33-108) while scoring 113 runs.

7- Miguel Cabrera (5th)
If not for Mr. Pujols, Mr. Cabrera would be seen by more fans for what he is – a player on his way to the Hall of Fame. Cabrera was second in the AL with a .328 average, third in homers with 38, and first in RBI with 126. Plus, he was my choice for the AL MVP (give Who is the AL MVP a read).

8- Matt Kemp – MISS
I predicted he would fall in 2009. I was just a year early. Kemp hit a poor .249, whiffed 170 times and was caught stealing 15 times as he had more than one run in with the coaching staff in L.A. He did have value though with 28 homers, 89 RBI and 82 runs scored.

9- Ryan Howard – (49th)
He hit 31 bombs with 108 RBI, but it was the first time in five years that he failed to go deep 45 times with 136 RBI.

10- Jacoby Ellsbury – MISS
The biggest bust of 2010 as he appeared in just 18 games.

11- Carl Crawford (3rd)
About to be a very rich man in free agency as he yet again was an all-around beast (.307-19-90-110-47).

12- Adrian Gonzalez (34th)
He plays in a terrible park for hitters, and did hit .298 with 31 homers, 101 RBI and 87 runs, but most were expecting more after he averaged 35 homers, 106 RBI and 98 runs the previous three seasons.

13- Prince Fielder – MISS
If I said Fielder hit 32 homers and scored 94 runs, you’d be nonplussed but pleased. However he slumped to .261 and drove in just 83 runs a year after platting a career best 141 runs so it was clearly a disappointing effort.

14- Ian Kinsler – MISS
I had the pick here, and I felt good about taking Mr. 30/30 with my first selection. Alas, his season was one of injury including that stubborn ankle issue that really held him down early in the year. A season of .286-9-45-73-15 is solid for a second sacker — if he was your 14th round pick, not the 14th player taken overall.

15- Evan Longoria (22nd)
Almost matched his draft day cost as he pushed his average up to .294 with 46 doubles, five triples and five steals (all career bests). He did produce a 3-year low in homers (22) while losing nine RBI (104) and four runs (96) from his ’09 effort.

Of these 15 guys, do you know how many returned first round value according to our Player Rater? The answer is a mere five: Braun, Cabrera, Crawford, Pujols and Ramirez.

All of this just goes to show you that the old adage that drafts are won or lost in the first round may not be true because I bet a whole bunch of people won leagues taking one of the 10 guys mentioned here who didn’t finish in the top-50 this season.

By Ray Flowers

Fact or Fiction

I’m gonna throw some thing on the wall today and see if they stick. Speaking of that, is there anyone out there who hasn’t chucked a piece of pasta at the wall to see if it sticks. I have no idea if that really helps you to decide if the pasta is cooked, but it certainly is fun.

Mark Teixeira has been a disappointment: FICTION.
Tex may not be at his finest, but is it fair to label him a disappointment? Hardly. Mark leads baseball with 79 runs scored which ties him with Brandon Phillips. Add in the fact that Mark has knocked in 81 runs and he is a mere run from being the first 80-80 man in baseball this season. Certainly his batting average is down at .258 (career .287) but he is still on pace for 35 homers, 122 RBI and 119 runs scored. Do you consider that to be a “down” season? I dont when his per 162 game averages are 37 homers, 122 RBI and 104 runs scored.

Johnny Cueto is a fantasy star: FACT.
Over his last eight trips to the hill Cueto has won five games, hasn’t once picked up a loss, and is sporting a sterling 1.55 WHIP. That’s fantasy stardom right there. On the year he has a 3.24 ERA, just 0.04 behind Johan Santana, and his 1.26 WHIP is a hundredth better than Cole Hamels and Yovani Gallardo. By the way, with his 11-2 record Cueto is tied for second in baseball, with Andy Pettitte, in winning percentage amongst hurlers with at least 10 victories at .846. The only man who is better is Ubaldo Jimenez at .895.

Aubrey Huff has been more valuable than Ryan Howard: FACT.
I know it seems crazy, especially when you go back to the start of the season when Howard was going as a top-15 pick while Huff was lucky to be taken in the top-150, but the fact of the matter is that Huff has been a more valuable fantasy contributor. Not only does he qualify at first and the outfield, Huff has provided more fantasy relevant production that Howard in 5×5 leagues of 12 teams according to our Player Rater Tool. Here are the 5×5 numbers.

Huff: .312-20-65-70-5
Howard: .292-23-81-65-1

In fact, Huff has been the 11th most productive hitter in fantasy baseball according to the tool, so where is the NL MVP talk?

Jaime Garcia is a fantasy ace: FICTION.
I know he started out guns a blazing for the Cardinals going 7-3 with a 1.79 ERA in his first 14 starts, but over his last seven trips to the hill his record has been a mere 2-2 record while his ERA has spiked to 4.29. In addition, his K/9 rate over those seven starts is 6.81, and that is far from an impressive number. Has he been really good this season? Of course he has. He is a solid 9-5 on the year, and his 2.53 ERA is 7th in baseball. At the same time his 1.31 WHIP is tied for 57th amongst starters while his total of 97 strikeouts is tied for 54th. Add that all up and according to the aforementioned Player Rater tool he is merely the 50th best pitcher in fantasy baseball this season.

Livan Hernandez has a better ERA than Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum, CC Sabathia, Roy Oswalt, Justin Verlander and Dan Haren: FACT.
And I just threw up in my mouth a little bit.

Hernandez currently has a 3.12 ERA the 21st, more vomiting, best mark in baseball. For a guy who has posted an ERA of at least 4.83 each of the past four years, and marks of 6.05 and 5.44 the past two years, that is truly astounding. Moreover, Livan hasn’t had a mark under 4.00 since 2005, and his career best mark is 3.20 set back in 2003. Where is my Dramamine?

Prince Fielder stinks to high heave: FICTION.
OK, OK, the 52 RBI are flat out pitiful for a guy who has knocked in at least 102 runners in each of the past three seasons. You’ll get no debate about that from me. At the same time, his other numbers really aren’t that far off of normal. I’m seriously (that’s for Cartman from South Park). Check out his projected production over 162 games this season versus his established career rate.

2010 pace: .267-36-77-95 with a .399 OBP and a .892 OPS
Career: .281-38-104-92 with a .383 OBP and a .926 OPS

Like I said, other than the poor RBI total, Fielder’s other production has pretty much been spot on – even if you didn’t realize it.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July 21, 2010

(1) Clayton Kershaw suspended, then appeals suspension.

(2) Brett Myers, 20 starts, 20 outings of at least six innings.

(3) Jose Bautista, David DeJesus, Jayson Werth, Prince Fielder, Jorge Cantu, Adam LaRoche rumors heating up.

(4) Mets looking to bolster bullpen.

(5) Pedro Martinez will not pitch in 2010.

(6) Scott Sizemore to play third base for Tigers.

(7) Carl Crawford doesn’t wear a cup.

By Ray Flowers

Let Tuesday Roll

I’m all over the place today (seems like I’ve written that before). So I thought what better way to lead off my grab bag o’ thoughts than to just put it – so there it is.

For all the posturing and good news about the health of Carlos Beltran’s knee, word from the Mets is that he will not start his minor league rehab assignment this week. In fact, some reports seem to suggest that he is still running with a limp at times. I’m still not counting on him being back until the All-Star break, so even if he does somehow return before that point I won’t be counting on much production.

Ryan Braun has an OPS of .865 which is, remarkably, less than guys like Austin Kearns (.877), David DeJesus (.871) and Luke Scott (.868). Come on Mr. Braun, get her in gear buddy. Speaking of getting it in gear, how wretched has Prince Fielder been this year? Fielder has 24 RBI, the same total as Eric Hinske who has 120 fewer at-bats, and his .447 SLG is lower than Gaby Sanchez (.452) who has all of seven homers. All told, Fielder is on pace for 30 homers and 61 RBI. That’s the kind of production you were hoping for when you spent your second round pick on Fielder this season, isn’t it? I know it’s really close to the 46 homers and 141 RBI he had last season. Goodness.

If you spent all day watching True Blood’s season three opener over and over again, you might have missed the fact that the Athletics traded for Conor Jackson. If you did, or if you simply are curious, you can find my thoughts about the deal at Around the Horn – Bay Area Style.

Aaron Heilman has been named the closer for the D’backs ending the nightmare that has been the closing run of Chad Qualls. At the same time, manager A.J. Hinch indicated that he will use Heilman when he is needed most based on the game situation, so he could still pitch in the 7th or 8th innings. With as bad as that pen has been, they might see if they can find a way to get Heilman to pitch the 7th, 8th and 9th innings each night.

Am I the only one out there fellas that hates shaving everyday? Wait, I don’t have to do that because I have one of the coolest jobs in the world. Don’t spread this around either, but I also wear slippers to work on some days. How bad do you want to be me right now?

Never known as a power bat, Howie Kendrick has 18 RBI in his last 14 games for the Angels. Kendrick knocked in 61 runs last season, a career best, and is currently on pace for 101 this season. Of course, you know these things have a way of evening out which is why it’s hardly surprising to see that he is batting only .273 this season (career .297).

People always wonder what my thoughts are on players – at least that’s what I tell myself even if there are only three of you out there who continue to submit questions from various email addresses. For those of you that do care about my thoughts, or simply would like to see some analysis of pitchers Derek Lowe, Ricky Nolasco, James Shields, Matt Talbot and C.J. Wilson, the link to The Chopping Block is one that you’ll want to click on.

I’m sitting here staring out the window thinking about my plans for Wednesday night. Since my life is always private – when have I ever written or talked about it (wink, wink) – I’ll simply state I’m looking forward to it about as much as Matt Holliday is looking forward to hitting second in front of Albert Pujols, the best hitter in baseball, and that’s a lot.

Jamie Moyer and Kyle Kendrick have been flipped in the Phillies rotation meaning Moyer will pitch Wednesday and Kendrick Thursday. Since both will face the Yankees you shouldn’t have either active regardless of when they are on the bump.

Speaking of the Phillies, the latest report seems to suggest that Jimmy Rollins (calf) might still be a year, I mean a week, away from returning. I got confused there and thought we were talking about Brian Roberts.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April22, 2010

(1) Carlos Zambrano moved to bullpen for Cubs.

(2) Jacoby Ellsbury has four fractured ribs. What does that mean for is recovery?

(3) Dallas Braden continues great early season work against the Yankees.

(4) Prince Fielder goes deep for first time in 54^th at-bats.

(5) Brewers destroy Pirates 20-0.

(6) Scott Baker has rough outing, or did he?

(7) Carlos Quentin demoted to 6^th in order. Andruw Jones takes his spot in third hole.

(8) Brian Fuentes still closer in Anaheim.

(9) Mike Lowell gaining on David Ortiz?

(10) Ryan Zimmerman dealing with another hammy issue.

It's an Odd World

I was struck by quite a few oddities on this day as I sat down to pen this entry, so I just went with that theme for today.

Mat Latos was reportedly hitting 97 mph on the radar gun last night in his seven shutout innings against the Giants. Latos was almost matched on the night by the Giants Jonathan Sanchez who allowed only one run in his seven innings as the Giants lost 1-0. Moreover, Sanchez struck out 10 while allowing only one hit in the loss. Three points. (1) The last time that the Giants lost a game in which they allowed only one hit World War I was happening – it was September 22nd, 1917. (2) Latos is a potential stud. I worry though that the Padres will limit him to 150-160 innings, so it might be wise to ride him for a while and then move him to a leaguemate who isn’t aware that his innings will be limited. (3) I keep saying it, and people keep laughing at me, but Sanchez just might end up being as valuable as Clayton Kershaw in 2010. Seriously.

The Cubs are a mess, and Lou Pinella isn’t one to sit idly by. He’s already switched the lineup around moving Marlon Byrd (vs. lefties) and Kosuke Fukudome (vs. righties) to the top of the order, and now the team is making a change in the rotation. With Ted Lilly set to return from his minor league rehab assignment this weekend, and with that a starter will need to be moved to the bullpen. Speculation was rampant on Twitter today about who it might be, and ultimately the man chosen to move might have been the one least likely to have taken on a bullpen role – and that is Carlos Zambrano. Big Z hasn’t made a bullpen appearance since 2002. Zambrano certainly has the stuff to dominate in shorts stints, but there are two big concerns. First, he often has no idea where the strike zone is, and you don’t want a late game arm coming in walking guys. Second, Zambrano is the hot head of hot heads. How anyone thinks that matches a role where, even at best, you often end up blowing things for your team, is beyond me. Be very afraid Cubs fans, but if you can, hold on to him in fantasy leagues cause this simply cannot last (sooner or later Carlos Silva will implode).

Mark Ellis missed seven games with a hamstring injury before playing last night. Well, he suffered a setback and today the A’s placed him on the DL. So, he’ll now have to miss 15 more games. Would the team have been better off just placing him on the DL when the injury initially occurred, thereby saving them a week of time? Probably. Too bad the Red Sox did the same thing with their handling of the rib injury to Jacoby Ellsbury (they left him on the bench, but not on the DL, for a week and a half before deciding to DL him).

Prince Fielder isn’t hitting his weight, which is something when you way like a quarter of a ton (he is hitting .224). Beyond the concern with the batting average there is the fact that he hasn’t gone deep in 49 at-bats. Well, I guess we know why – he has a sore hand. I have a sore wrist, but it hasn’t precluded me from continuing to type out really good articles the past week (I must be tougher than Prince).

Zack Greinke allowed two runs over seven innings against the Blue Jays only to see his bullpen cough up the lead and the game. He’s now 0-2 through four starts despite a 3.28 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP.

Speaking of the Royals, Jose Guillen continues to mash as if he was the reincarnated Josh Gibson. Guillen is hitting .377 with six homers and 13 RBI through 15 games. How is that for a forgotten man in the fantasy game?

Oh, and one last thing. Mr. Lyle Overbay, my starting first basemen in JEDWARS, an AL-only league, please remember how to hit. How he is batting .119 through 59 at-bats, considering that he owns a .277 career average, is simply astounding. It also goes to show you that things always even out. What do I mean? I have Guillen going absolutely nuts on that same squad, though his production has pretty much been negated by the failures of Overbay.

By Ray Flowers

Around the World: ADP

The calendar is about to flip to March, and that will signal that the fantasy baseball season is in full effect. Mock drafts will heat up to the point where you’ll start dreaming about passing up on Andrew McCutchen in the 8th round and you’ll wonder why you didn’t pull the trigger on that second closer at the end of the 15th round.

To help you as you prepare for fantasy baseball’s version of March Madness, I’ll look at Average Draft Position data from time to time. If you need a refresher course in what ADP is and why it matters, make sure you read ADP Talk – What is it?

A caveat. Make sure that whichever ADP information you are looking at is geared toward your specific league. It does you no good to look at National Fantasy Baseball Championship data if you are in a league that has only 10 teams (the NFBC has 15 team leagues. You can win over $100,000 playing in it by the way, so you might wan to check it out). To read some pertinent NFBC ADP data make sure you give a look at Jason Collette’s Talking ADP piece.

As for what follows here, I will be reviewing ADP data from 13 leagues. Each league contains 15 teams with 14 hitters and nine pitchers starting (just like the NFBC starting lineup) with standard 5×5 scoring categories. Here are some things that I noticed in the data (thanks to Geoffrey Stein for sending it along).

(1) Here is the top-10.
Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Chase Utley, Ryan Braun
Matt Kemp, Mark Teixeira, Joe Mauer, Prince Fielder and Evan Longoria.

To me, Mauer at #8 is awful. Too much growth last year for him to sustain it. Plus, catcher is such a brutal position physically.

I also question the wisdom of Teixeira at #7. I’d much rather have Miguel Cabrera at #13.
Last three years: Teixeira (.302-34-116-97-1) and Cabrera (.312-35-116-91-3).

(2) You’re going to need to get your corner infielders quickly. Of the top 33 selections, eight were first basemen and six were third sackers meaning fully 42 percent of the top-33 picks played first or third.

(3) Pitching isn’t a priority early. Tim Lincecum (#17) is the only hurler in the top-30. Here are the others in the top-50: Roy Halladay (31), CC Sabathia (34), Felix Hernandez (38), Zack Greinke (41), Dan Haren (48) and Justin Verlander (49).

(4) Catchers aren’t going early after the big-3. Mauer (#8), Victor Martinez (24) and Brian McCann (39) are the only catchers in the top-75. Next comes Matt Wieters at 78, and after that you have to go all the way down to #126 to find the next backstop – Miguel Montero.

(5) How are people evaluating players that were hurt last year? Here’s a look.

22nd overall – Jose Reyes
He’s currently the fourth SS off the board after Hanley Ramirez (2), Troy Tulowitzki (14) and Jimmy Rollins (20). I think all three should be taken before Reyes because of the reliability factor, but Tulowitzki as a first round pick? I have a real problem with that.

23rd – Grady Sizemore
Mr. 20/20 (each year from 2005-08), clearly has the faithful convinced that last year was just one of those seasons. If healthy, there is little reason to doubt that consensus, but it’s still a bit risky to spend a second round pick on Sizemore at this point.

125th – Brandon Webb
All reports are really positive that Webb looks and feels strong so far. Given his extreme consistency before last years shoulder issues someone is certainly going to be tempted to draft Webb at this point of a draft, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he ends up sneaking into the top-100 if he has no setbacks in spring. Personally, I’ll pass. Scott Baker (137) or James Shields (144) certainly seem like much safer bets to me.

So there you go. As I said, this won’t be the last time I address this issue of ADP.

And finally, with Fanball.com going completely free with our baseball coverage for the next three weeks, here are a few links to some of my recent work. Enjoy.

Breaking Down: Chad Qualls

Breaking Down: Clayton Kershaw

Sabermetric Primer: SWIP

Sabermetric Primer: Game Score

Sabermetric Primer: Quality Start Percentage

By Ray Flowers