Deadline Deals

The trade deadline came and went. Some big names were dealt while others need not change their address labels for their mail. A few thoughts on some of the bigger names that were dealt are below.

Mike Adams, Rangers: I keep saying it – there isn’t a better right-handed reliever in baseball (1.12 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 5.44 K.BB).

Erik Bedard, Red Sox: As injury prone as any player in the game, Bedard is nearly always successful when on the hill. Just 4-7 his record figures to do a 180 with the Red Sox offense behind him. He had better pitch well though, and stay healthy, as Clay Buchholz (back) is likely done for the year.

Carlos Beltran, Giants: He has only two hits in 17 at-bats with the Giants but he figures to settle right in and be the best run producer on the club.

Michael Bourn, Braves: You know you suck, and yes I’m talking to you Astros, when you deal the best base stealer in the league (39 thefts), a guy who is hitting .303 and one who is also under contract for 2012 (arbitration eligible). His value goes up with a better lineup around him.

Doug Fister, Tigers: This guys a solid big leaguer. He has a strong 1.17 WHIP, while his ERA is also good at 3.33. You can’t blame him for his 3-12 record since the Mariners offense is just pathetic, but Fister offers little to excite in the fantasy game. He goes out and give you six innings, he’s actually done it 14-straight starts though only nine of those outings fall into the “quality start” category. His value goes up slightly with the deal since he might actually pick up a few wins.

Rafael Furcal, Cardinals: How in the world is Furcal hitting .196? Pathetic. He has hit better since the All-Star break at .217, but that’s like saying your traded in your Yugo for a Festiva. He’s still got talent and if he hits at the top of the order he has a bushel of bats behind him to knock him in.

Edwin Jackson, Cardinals: I gave my thoughts on Jackson last week in Deals a Startin. I’ll add this. I was in St. Louis when Jackson made his first start, and listening to the media and fans you’d have thought they added Bob Gibson to the staff. Jackson has a good arm, and when locked in he can be a solid option, but it seems like expectations are way out of whack with this guy.

Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians: From June 1-July 19th he allowed three of fewer runs in 10-straight starts. Unfortunately he’s allowed nine runs over his last two outings. His velocity is still down three mph, and moving to the AL isn’t going to help his outlook.

Derrek Lee, Pirates: Lee will replace Lyle Overbay at first, and he has been hot of late hitting .298 with a .906 OPS and 13 RBI over his last 15 games.

Ryan Ludwick, Pirates: Leaving Petco should be a big boost to his offense, but it’s not like he has been killing it all year on the road (.258/.300/.389).

Hunter Pence, Phillies: He’s having a fine year but his OBP isn’t great at .355, his SLG of .468 is only 39th amongst players with 400 plate appearances, and his BABIP is high at .365. Still, can’t fault the Phillies at all with this add though it does tank the value of Domonic Brown who was sent to Triple-A.

Colby Rasmus, Blue Jays: I gave my thoughts on Colby last week in Deals a Startin. Let’s say that I like the game, question the head, and wonder if he will ever reach the level that his talent dictates he should. Still, he just might get there in Canada where no one even knows they play baseball.

By Ray Flowers

The Value of Jeter

Everyone says Derek Jeter stinks. His range is down, as is his production at the plate, and as a result it seems like everyone, even the New York faithful, have turned on the future Hall of Fame shortstop. What are my thoughts on Jeter including his 2011 fantasy prospects? Before I get to that, let’s review the current situation.

The Negotiations

(1) Jeter is a 36 year old free agent.

(2) The Yankees have offered Jeter a 3-year, $45 million contract.

(3) Jeter apparently wants $23-24 million a year for at least four years. He wouldn’t mind five or six though.

(4) GM Brian Cashman basically told the press that if Jeter doesn’t like the offer he was given he can take his act on the road and try to convince someone else to give him more money.

I will admit that it does seem very odd that Jeter thinks he should get $20 million a year since he is 36 years old, but don’t forget three salient factors, in the form of current Yankees’ players, that are likely weighing on his mind.

A.J. Burnett: This righty, coming off the worst season of his career, will make $16.5 million a year for each of the next three years.

Jorge Posada: The 39 year old catcher/DH will make $13.1 million this year, not a had chunk of change for a guy who will turn 40 during the season and one that has 551 at-bats the past two years.

Alex Rodriguez: He will be 36 in July. Here are his contract totals the next seven years – $31 million, $29 million, $28 million, $25 million, $21 million, $20 million, $20 million.

It’s a difficult hard to fault Jeter for asking what he is when Arod will be making $20 million a year when he is 42 years old, especially considering what Jeter means to the Yankees franchise.

2011 Fantasy Outlook

Jeter is coming off his worst full season since, well, ever. He produced his lowest batting average (.270), tied his career-low in homers (10), had his worst OBP ever (.340) and saw his slugging percentage drop to a laughable level (.370) leading to an OPS of .710, some .127 points below his career mark. So all hope is lost right? Not so fast…

Jeter, hitting atop a loaded Yankees lineup, scored 111 runs. That total not only lead all shortstops, it was tied for fourth best in all of baseball.

Jeter knocked in 67 runs, only nine less than Hanley Ramirez and six more than Stephen Drew.

Jeter stole 18 bases, only four less than Rafael Furcal and one more than Jimmy Rollins.

Add it all up and Jeter had 10 homers, 67 RBI, 111 runs and 18 steals. Do you know how many shortstops in baseball reached all of those figures? Obviously the answer is none because he led shortstops in runs. How about this one – how many players in baseball went 10-65-110-15? The answer is three: Carl Crawford, Carlos Gonzalez and Mr. Jeter.

There are still concerns with Jeter.

He struck out 16.0 percent of the time, a 4-year high. I t was still below his 16.9 percent career mark though.

His line drive rate fell to 16.1 percent. Given that he owns a 20.2 percent mark, and that he had never been below 17.9 percent in a season, I’m gonna give him the benefit of the doubt here.

Still, there are issues.

(1) As a result of the loss in the LD-rate, his BABIP mark was just .307, .049 points below his career mark.

(2) Always a ground ball machine, his GB-rate went through the roof as he posted a 65.7 percent mark in 2010. That’s only a good thing if you are Michael Bourn. If you are Derek Jeter, does it signal that you have lost bat speed resulting in an increasing number of feeble ground balls – and another reason why that line drive rate of his tanked?

So how do I view Jeter in 2011 as a fantasy shortstop? I’m buying. We all know Jeter will return to the Yankees despite all the recent garbage, and I expect he will once again hit at the top of the lineup. Give him a little bit of a bounce back in the batting average category, and a continuation of the rest of his performance, and Jeter is solidly in the top-8 amongst shortstops (see Top-10 SS for 2011), and one that might come at more of a discount than he should since everyone seems to think he is washed up.

By Ray Flowers

Californian’s on the Move

Uribe to Dodgers

Jose Uribe, coming off a career best season of 24 homers and 85 RBI, signed a 3-year deal for $21 million to leave the World Champion San Francisco Giants (it’s still an amazing feeling to write that), to move south to join the Dodgers. He now becomes a hated player in this writers’ household as he joined the Dodgers placing his name alongside the likes of Benedict Arnold.

Now I’m not saying that the Giants should have matched the offer, they certainly should not have. It’s too much money, and too many years for Uribe. Why the Dodgers would give him that contract for Uribe to play second base is also a mystery. They already have 37 year old Casey Blake at third, and an aging an injury prone Rafael Furcal at short which means that Uribe will play second base. He’ll give them ample power for that spot (he’ll still qualify at third and shortstop in fantasy baseball 2011 as well), but let’s put things in perspective.

Uribe is a career .256 hitter who batted .248 last season.

Uribe never walks. His career-high was in 2010 when he walked all of 45 times. As a result, his OBP is .300 for his career. Not his batting average, his OBP. That’s dreadful when you consider that the league average since 2001. the start of his career, is .337.

Though he has hit 20-homers four times, he has averaged only 17 homers per 500 at-bats in his career. Speaking of 500 at-bats, he has only eclipsed that mark twice (2007 and 2010), and his career SLG of .431 is just five points better than the league average during his career.

Uribe also has no speed with only seven steals the last five seasons.

Only once in three years has he hit more than 16 homers.
Only once in three years has he scored more than 50 runs.
Only once in three years has he had more than 55 RBI.
Only once in three years has he hit over .250.

To wrap it up, the Dodger gave a 33 year old versatile infielder who has averaged, per 500 at-bats in his career a line of.256-17-69-63 with a .731 OPS, $7 million a year for three years. I can’t envision a scenario where they don’t end up regretting that.

Torrealba to Rangers

Yorvit Torrealba left the Padres to join the Rangers as he signed a 2-year deal for $6.25 million. Yorvit will replace Bengie Molina as the Rangers #1 man behind the dish (it’s not known if Molina will retire or look for another deal).

Torrealba had a Catcher’s ERA of 3.14 in 2010, and that was the best mark in Padres history for a catcher who appeared in 81 or more games. It was also the lowest since Paul Lo Duca posted the same mark in 2003 for the Dodgers. The Rangers had the 4th best ERA in the AL in 2010 with a 3.93 mark, so Yorvit will have a solid staff to work with.

As for his offense, it’s pretty fair for a catcher. It’s always hard to tell how good a guy is when his playing time is sporadic, and that is certainly the case with Torrealba who has had only one season in his career of more than 325 at-bats. Torrealba has 538 at-bats the past two years, basically a full season, an in that time he has hit .279 with nine homers, 68 RBI, 58 runs and a .725 OPS. He also moves from arguably the worst hitting park in baseball in San Diego for one of the best in Texas, and that should certainly help his production. All told, he is a sure fire starting in AL-only leagues, and he has a legit shot to be a solid second catcher in mixed leagues as well, especially if he is able to increase his at-bat total a bit. This deal, unlike the one given to Uribe, seems like a really good move for the Rangers, especially when a guy like John Buck got 3-years and $18 million from the Marlins.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD: Part II

For the second straight year, I was invited to play in an expert’s league by the folks over at KFFL. Nicknamed K-BAD, for Baseball Analysis Draft, the league pits 11 of the top minds in the game against one flunky (that would be me). I thought I would give my analysis of the team I was able to roster in the 12-team, 5×5 mixed league with 28 rounds (I had the ninth pick in the draft which was completed near the start of March).

Note: If you want to read my review of picks 1-10, click on the link to K-BAD – Part I.

ROUND 11: Russell Martin, C, Dodgers
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Maybe the extra 20 lbs will allow him to drive the ball deep again. He wasn’t as bad as it looked last year, and is still a top-7 option in my mind – or at least he was until he was injured (this pick was made before his ill health hit). Martin is progressing well and may not miss more than a handful of games to start the year.

ROUND 12: James Shields, SP, Rays
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Shields was the last, reliable, top shelf option left on my draft board amongst starting pitchers, so I’m very comfortable with him as my third starter.

ROUND 13: Trevor Hoffman, RP, Brewers
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Safe, old and boring, all Hoffman does is rack up 30-saves year after year. In each of his last 14 healthy seasons he has hit that level, so there is no reason to think he will produce anything less this season.

ROUND 14: Ryan Dempster, SP, Cubs
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
The most skilled starting pitcher left on my board or a middling OF? I decided to roster a fourth solid starter since no one stood out in the outfield.

ROUND 15: Ryan Ludwick
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Immediately after making the pick, I slightly regretted it. Not because Ludwick will fail in 2010, he’ll hit behind Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday in the center of a powerful Cardinals’ lineup, but because Mike Gonzalez was taken with the next pick and I need save help.

ROUND 16: Rafael Furcal
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
A risk since he stopped running last season. Still he is a decent starting option at short, and he will allow me to use Tejada at third base once the season gets underway.

ROUND 17: Brad Lidge, RP, Phillies
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
What, you think he won’t rebound in 2010? I’m not sure either, but I had only one reliever at this point so I had to take a chance that his elbow and knee will be healthy enough for him to return to a high level of effectiveness if his BABIP returns to normal.

ROUND 18: David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
I agonized a bit here, but at this point a 25+HR, 90+RBI guy isn’t all that bad, and I needed the pop based on the rest of my lineup.

ROUND 19: Aaron Harang, SP, Reds
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
The results weren’t there last season for Harang, but he isn’t that far off his 2006-07 form that he should be getting this little respect. He’s a great 5th starter for my club.

ROUND 20: Ryan Madson, RP, Phillies
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
As talented as any reliever left on the board, he is my handcuff in case Lidge isn’t ready to go because I only had two closers at this point of the draft in Lidge and Hoffman.

By Ray Flowers

Down the Stretch: Shortstop

I was thinking about what to write about today, and a couple of stories revolving around shortstops caught my fancy so I just decided to make it a theme and stick with the position for all my comments today.

Jose Reyes took BP on Monday. Since he plays for the Mets that is about as exciting as it would be for you or I to walk out to pick the paper up in the morning to find that it was in the hand of Brooklyn Decker. I never really wanted to visit New York before.

Marco Scutaro may have played his last game because of a heel injury. There are two schools of thought as the club awaits the results of the MRI. Here is what his manager, Cito Gaston said. “I’m pretty sure that he’s probably not going to play the rest of the season.” Of course, that isn’t the way that Scutaro is looking at it. “As soon as I feel good, I’m going to play,” Scutaro said. “If it feels good, I just want to play.” The hope is that there was just scar tissue breaking loose in the heel. If that is the case, he could be back in a few days. If it’s more serious he could be looking at surgery or in the least a few weeks healing doing absolutely nothing. As a Scutaro owner, I certainly hope that he shocks everyone and returns to the field, and soon. Yes, I’m being greedy since he has set career-highs in just about every conceivable category including average (.282), homers (12), RBI (60 tied with 60 last year), runs (100), steals (14), OBP (.379) and OPS (.789). Yeah, that’s a career year folks. Think of this. Scutaro was my 30th round draft pick in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, literally the 436 player off the board and he, and as of this writing he has:

Hit for a higher average than Alexei Ramirez (.279).
Had more homers than Johnny Peralta (11).
Knocked in more runners than Stephen Drew.
Stole more bases than Orlando Cabrera (13)
Scored more runs than Jimmy Rollins (90).

Think about that the next time you throw out some inconsequently name at the end of your draft. Every pick counts, so make sure you view them that way (Scutaro was our target in the 29th round, but we figured, correctly, that he would fall back to us in round 30).

Here are the leaders at the shortstop position over the past 30 days.

AVG: Troy Tulowitzki turned around a horrible start to the season and has flashed a strong finishing kick with a .351 average over the past 30 days.
HR: Juan Uribe leads the position with seven home runs. He qualifies at second and third in most leagues and has been one hell of an option late in the year.

RBI: Uribe also leads the position with 19 RBI, in addition to pacing the position with a SLG (.652) and a OPS (1.044). Yeah, he has been scorching.

Runs: Derek Jeter scored 20 runs in his 27 games to lead the way. Rafael Furcal is second with 19 runs while Cliff Pennington has 18. By the way, Pennington is also hitting .306 with 11 RBI in his 28 games, so if he is still there on waivers, and you need some middle infield help, he is worth adding for the final two weeks.

SB: Everth Cabrera and Scutaro with six. That’s right, Scutaro produced 43 percent of his year steal total in the last 30 days.

So there it is. I’ll try to hit some of the other positions over the next couple of weeks as the season winds down because, you know me, I’ll do anything I can to avoid talking about football each day (j/k).

By Ray Flowers

Cry Baby Cry

We all can whine about the plight of our teams. I’m sure you all have a story about how you missed on the guy you wanted to draft by one selection, or the guy you drafted seems to think that the aim of the game is to swing and miss rather than ripping line drives all over the field. I get it, believe me. So I’m gonna let the tears flow today and let you know how upset I’ve become with a few of the guys I have selected for my various fantasy baseball teams in 2009.

Mike Aviles: I certainly didn’t think he was going to hit .325 again, but .183? Currently on the DL with a strained right forearm, Aviles will only need to go 20 for his next 20 to raise his average up to .300 when he returns. I feel that’s doable – you?

Grant Balfour: Last year 1.54 ERA and a 12.65 K/9. This year, 5.48 ERA and a 8.61 K/9. A regression was coming, but to half of last year’s value?

Chris Davis: Twelve home runs is great. A .194 batting average, not so much. He could set a record for futility as well as he is whiffing 46.7% of the time. That’s right, he already has 77 Ks this season in 165 ABs, or more strikeouts that Albert Pujols has had in any of the last seven seasons.

Joey Devine: The potential closer a year after posting a 0.59 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP, Devine didn’t throw a single regular season pitch before being sent to the DL and ultimately requiring elbow surgery costing him the entire season. Thanks Joey, not like I was counting on you for 30 saves or anything.

Rafael Furcal: Glad you had him in your top-5 at shortstop now that he is hitting .253 with one home run and three steals?

Corey Hart: What happened to that breakout campaign? After back-to-back 20/20 seasons he is barely on pace to go 20/10, though he is almost certain to set a career high in Ks with 50 in 48 games, almost halfway to last year’s worst of 109 in 157 games.

Howie Kendrick: The man can hit .300 in his sleep. He must be in a coma since he is batting .225.

Brandon Morrow: The Mariners’ reliever has a strong 8.22 K/9 mark. Oops. That’s his walks per nine inning mark. How amazingly putrid is that? By the way, his K/9 mark is 10.57.

Ricky Nolasco: So bad he was demoted to the minors where he has dominated in two starts. He has been exceedingly unlucky as his BABIP is astronomical at .402, but that doesn’t help to wick away the tears after he has posted a 9.07 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP through nine starts.

Alexei Ramirez: How had has he been this year? Despite the fact that he is batting .329 over his last 70 at-bats, the man is still hitting just .253 on the year. He is on pace for 30 steals, but the 10 home run pace is pretty awful for a guy who hit 21 last year in just 480 at-bats.

Alex Rios: Is he ever going to put it all together? His career best numbers across the board are .302-24-85-114-32. Currently he is on pace to hit about .275-22-80-80-12.

Jimmy Rollins: Hitting just .230 on the year, Rollins has only three home runs giving him 14 taters in his last 769 at-bats dating back to the start of 2008. Will you finally believe now that his 30 home run season of 2007 was a fluke?

Andy Sonnanstine: Luckily for him I drafted Nolasco or he would be feeling a lot more of my wrath for going 3-5 with a 7.66 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP.

Rickie Weeks: Out for the year with wrist surgery. What could have been considering he was on pace to hit more than 30 home runs with about 100 RBI and 100 runs.

Chris Young: 25/25 as a rookie. 20/10 as a second year player. On pace for 10/10 as a third year player. Flipping great.

By Ray Flowers