2013 SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio – Experts Draft

I just keep doing fantasy baseball drafts don’t I? Seems like every time I wake up I get my bowl of cereal, my Red Bull (sometimes there is vodka in it), answer a plethora of tweets and emails, and then I end up being in a draft of some kind. Which draft am I talking about in this article? It’s the SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio draft, populated by the genius minds of the network. How did my team turn out? Before I get to that, here are the rules.

12 team mixed league
5×5 scoring
14 hitters, nine pitchers
six reserve rounds (also one DL spot)

Here’s the club.

C: Mike Napoli (9th round), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (18)
1B: Adam Dunn (15)
2B: Martin Prado (6)
3B: Miguel Cabrera (1)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (2)
MI: Andrelton Simmons (21)
CI: Kevin Youkilis (17), Lance Berkman (26)
OF: B.J. Upton (3), Shin-Soo Choo (4), Austin Jackson (5), Melky Cabrera (14), Juan Pierre (16), Dayan Viciedo (22), Rajai Davis (27)
UT: Brandon Belt (20)

STARTING PITCHERS: James Shields (7), Yovani Gallardo (8), Zack Greinke (10), Tim Lincecum (11), James McDonald (23), Wandy Rodriguez (24), Edinson Volquez (25), Francisco Liriano (29 – DL)

RELIEF PITCHERS: J.J. Putz (12), John Axford (13), Chris Perez (19), David Hernandez (28)

It’s important to note a couple of salient points before I dig into my team.

This league has one DL spot. That was part of the reason I wasn’t worried about taking Liriano with my last pick. I’ll stick him on waivers and add another arm in week one.

This league was done on a service that has very lenient rules for positional qualification. Take the case of Prado. He should only qualify at outfield (119 games) and 3B (25), but in this league he also qualifies at shortstop (13) and second (10). I say it all the time, but it’s vital to know the rules of your league, and in this league the following players qualify at more than one spot:

Ramirez: 3B, SS
Prado: 2B, 3B, SS, OF
Napoli: C, 1B
Dunn: 1B, OF
Youkilis: 1B, 3B

No on to the offense.

Napoli and Saltalamacchia might hit a combined .240, but both should go go deep at least 20 times with Napoli having 30 HR upside if he can get 500 at-bats at first base for the Red Sox.

I had the #3 pick and was worried that Ryan Braun and Miguel Cabrera would go 1-2 leaving me to pass on Mike Trout at #3. Luckily Trout went #2 overall so I could draft Cabrera. Dunn is a batting average disaster, but he’s nails in HR, RBI, runs scored. He’s hit at least 38 homers with 92 RBIs and 79 runs scored in eight of nine years. Youkilis should see a nice bounce back at third base in Yankee Stadium, and Berkman was also a late round add who is just one season removed from hitting .300 with 30 homers. Belt has 15/15 talent, and this might be the year he finally lives up to his billing.

Everyone keeps hating on HanRam. Give me that 20/20 talent that qualifies at two spots. I’m a big believer this year. Simmons is likely to bat leadoff for the Braves this season in what could be a potent lineup. I don’t love Simmons this year, but I’ll take that talent in the 21st round. Prado is my starter at second. I’ll take that .300 average and potential 15/15 upside without hesitation.

My outfield is solid. Upton could go 20/40. Choo could go 20/20. Jackson could go 15/25. I’ll take that as a top-3. My fourth is Melky Cabrera. I’m not quite sure how he performs coming back from his PED suspension, but after proving himself to be a .300 hitter the past two years, I took a shot (more on the reason for that below). My 5th outfielder is Juan Pierre. Forty steals and 80 runs, not to mention a .280 average, seem doable. Viciedo never walks, but that’s a 25 homer bat, and I have no idea why Davis was still there in the 27th round. I’ll trade him to someone who needs some speed.

On the hill…

I went earlier for pitching in this draft that I normally do. Why? Because it was where the value was. I didn’t jump into the mix early, the 7th round was my first arm, but look at my top-4: Shields, Gallardo, Greinke and Lincecum. Do you honestly think that each of those four men can’t strike out 200 batters while winning 15 games? People are worried about Greinke’s arm. He was worth taking a shot on in the 10th round (his current ADP is inside the top-60). I picked him up at selection #118. Lincecum? I’ve long been on record expecting a bounce back (see – Is Lincecum Washed Up After Years of Dominance?). Behind that foursome I have another big arm in McDonald, and Wandy Rodriguez is a solid 6th starter. I also added another potential big K arm in Volquez in the reserve rounds. In the pen I also did something I rarely do – I ended up with three closers. I took Putz/Axford because of the value I felt they held, and then much like with Greinke, I just couldn’t pass up Perez in the 19th when others were seemingly afraid to take him cause he might miss the start of the season. I thought Perez was a great value in the 19th round, side issue be damned. Don’t forget that Perez had 36 and 39 saves the last two years. I also tabbed Hernandez as a middle reliever, one who would likely take over if Putz were injured.

Some final thoughts.

I have batting average drains in Dunn, Napoli, Saltalamacchia and Upton. I offset that with the likes of Prado, Miguel Cabrera, Choo, Jackson and Melky Cabrera. I added two all speed guys in Pierre/Davis to help me strongly in steals (not to mention the potential 20 thefts guys like Ramirez, Simmons, Upton, Choo and Jackson). I’ve got youth – Belt, Simmons – and age – Youkilis and Dunn. I really like the balance of this offense.

On the mound, I like it. My top-4, if healthy, will be better than any other top-4 in this league. If my three relievers stay healthy, that’s 100 saves. For not taking a starter early, and not taking a reliever until the 12th round, don’t you think my staff turned out pretty well? Me too.

For the full RESULTS OF THE DRAFT click on the link.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May29, 2012

(1) Can Will Middlebrooks keep up that batting average given his approach?

(2) Eric Thames sent down, who takes over in Blue Jays OF?

(3) Gregor Blanco establishes himself as Giants leadoff hitter.

(4) Dexter Fowler has huge night, been impressive for a long while now.

(5) Jonathan Lucroy out 4-6 weeks with broken hand.

(6) Bryan LaHair continues to slump (people are bailing on him over at Fealflicker).

(7) Jered Weaver hurts back – what does it mean?

By Ray Flowers

Did You Know?

Sometimes I like to randomly check in with the baseball cosmos. Today is one of those days. There’s no rhythm or reason to what follows – there’s just a bunch of interest facts strewn about all over the page relating to performances from 2011.

Alex Avila led American League batters, under the age of 26, with an OPS of .895 in 2011 (minimum 502 at-bats). The only other AL bat to reach those requirements who also posted an OPS of .850 was Evan Longoria who finished at exactly .850.

Lance Berkman led the NL last season with 22 homers on the road, one more than his former teammates Albert Pujols.

There were only three outfielders in baseball who hit 10 homers, 10 triples and stole 20 bases. Curtis Granderson was likely and easy call for you, though the other two might be a wee bit tougher. Well, maybe you got Austin Jackson of the Tigers as the second guy, but I’d be willing to bet that the third player’s name is one that you will have to search your memory banks for a long while to find. This youngster had 12 homers, 11 triple and 22 steals. He plays in the American League. Some regard him as the best defensive center fielder in the game. He is Peter Bourjos.

Only four men in baseball have hit .300 with 20 or more homers each of the past three years. Albert Pujols… doesn’t make the list. He hit just .299 last season. The list of four men: Ryan Braun, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto and… Robinson Cano.

Rajai Davis stole third base 17 times last year, the most in the AL. That’s the same total as Alex Gordon posted last year in 151 games.

I have a crush on Katherine McPhee of Smash. If you click on that link can can’t understand why, I can’t help you.

Sam Fuld stole 20 bases last year, one more than Shane Victorino, Johnny Damon, Ben Zobrist and Jayson Werth. While each of those four batters hit at least 16 homers, Fuld went deep just three times for the Rays.

I love HDTV. It drives home the point that so many “famous” people really aren’t as good looking as you think they are. Makes you feel a little bit better when you look in the mirror.

Yadier Molina hit a career best .305 last season despite the fact that he swung at 40.7 percent of first pitches, the highest mark in the National League. He was the polar opposite of Jamey Carroll who swing at only 6.9 percent of first pitches, the fewest in the NL.

Anibal Sanchez had 202 strikeouts last year. Come on, admit it. You had no idea did you? Were you away that he had more punchouts than Zack Greinke (201), Ian Kennedy (198), Jered Weaver (198), Gio Gonzalez (197) and Cole Hamels (194)?

Only three hurlers in baseball have at least 35 saves each of the past two seasons. Two are rather obvious, though neither is named Mariano Rivera or Jonathan Papelbon. The two arms that have 35 or more saves in each of the last two years that are obvious both pitched in the NL West, though one of them will now pitch for the Marlins: Heath Bell and Brian Wilson. The third man is no longer even a closer, he’s now a setup man in Toronto – Francisco Cordero. If we drop the qualification down to 30 saves each of the last two years we only get eight names, a number that is certainly a lot lower than you were likely thinking it would be (yet another reason to avoid overpaying for closers on draft day perhaps?). There just aren’t that many consistent, save arms in the game when you look at multi-year trend. Think of this. Of the eight 30-save guys the last two years, I already mentioned that Cordero is no longer a closer. Another arm on the list, Leo Nunez (aka Juan Carlos Oviedo), also isn’t going to be closing this season. A third name, Neftali Feliz, is going to start. That means a list of 30 save guys for three years, 2000-12, will have, at most, five names on it. Remember that the last time you go diving for closers early in your draft.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: July 5, 2011

photo © 2009 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are some answers to a few of the questions that I recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Would you trade away Alexi Ogando for Carlos Beltran?
– @ToddScreamer

Back on May 16th I wrote the following about Ogando. “…there is no way he can perform this well all season… Ogando has been magnificent, but if you can convince someone that he is a top-20 hurler, now is the time to move him.” I have to admit he’s held on much longer than I thought he would, but at the same time there are some troublesome signs. First, he’s failed to last more than five innings in three of four starts. Second, over his last four starts he’s 1-3 with a 6.61 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. Now you might say small sample size to brush off that recent run of poor work, but the mitigating factor here is that Ogando has already reached a career-high in innings pitched. In this day and age of pitch and inning counts, just how hard are the Rangers going to push Ogando? For that matter, how will his arm hold up under the increasingly heavy workload? Finally, Ogando owns a middling K/9 rate (6.73), a poor GB/FB (0.88) and there is still no way to explain his .247 BABIP given his over 22 percent line drive rate.

Beltran has been as good as ever at the plate. It’s pretty shocking actually given the physical issues that limited him to 145 games played the last two years. Let’s compare his work this season to his career averages.

Career: .282/.360/.494
2011: .281/.371/.492

It’s pretty amazing how close those numbers are. How about the counting stats you ask? He only has 350 plate appearances right now, so I’ll give you those numbers and his career averages per 350 PAs.

Career: 14 homers, 52 RBI, 54 runs, 14 steals
2011: 12 homers, 55 RBI, 46 runs, three steals

Pretty much everything suggests that Beltran is “back,” though the pink elephant in the room is the lack of steals. Given his knee issues the past few years they may never come back, but that doesn’t mean Beltran won’t continue to be a force with a bat in his hands.

I find it hard to believe I’m typing this, but I’m going to say Beltran is the better bet to replicate his first half work in the second half. Beltran could be traded to a team with a better offense and get a chance to ply his trade in a better home park, and that intrigues me. Plus, I’m just not sold that Ogando is (a) going to keep up his current level of performance and (b) that his arm isn’t going to fall off if he more than doubles his previous career-high in innings.

As a Matt Capps owner I picked up Joe Nathan. How much longer till I’m dropping Capps?
– @j_peterson730

Capps blew a save chance July 2nd, and then on July 3rd he was removed after allowing two hits (it was Glen Perkins and not Nathan who was called in to clean up the mess). Capps was not pleased, and he even got the kiss of death after the game when manager Ron Gardenhire said he was still the closer for the Twins. Capps has been as good as ever with a mere 1.03 BB/9 mark, he just doesn’t beat himself, but oddly his K/9 mark is way down to 5.40 per nine, a terrible mark (career 6.83). That’s danger territory. At the same time virtually all the other major indicators with him point to this being a “normal” Capps effort which equates to solid without being overly interesting or dominating.

Is that enough to hold off Nathan? There are two things at work here. (1) Nathan is still working his way back to full strength (Nathan’s thrown the ball very well since returning from the DL but we’re only talking about four innings). It is heartening though that over his last six outings that he’s picked up six Ks without a single walk. He’s getting closer, and the mph is creeping up, but he’s still not back to 2009 form quite yet. (2) The Twins continue to be beat down by injuries as much as any club in baseball, and as a result they are in fourth place in the AL Central. They’re only eight games out, but there is a chance that we reach the end of the month and the Twins make the decision to move Capps to another contender. If that occurs then the 9th would be wide open in Minnesota.

For now you have to keep Capps because you won’t get much for him on the trade market. There’s also the fact that he is still the Twins’ closer. However, know that he isn’t at all likely to be picking up saves in August unless it’s with another club.

I have Vlad Guerrero and Bobby Abreu. Nick Swisher just became a free agent. Drop one for him?
– @ZacharyReid

Swisher killed it in June hitting .326 with seven homers and 23 RBI. As a result he is on pace to go .248-19-92-77 over 533 ABs this season. In his career, per 533 at-bats, Swisher has produced a line of .252-27-84-88. Obviously he’s right back where he should be, and it’s clear he shouldn’t be on waiver-wires.

Guerrero has 442 homers, 1,461 RBI, owns a .318 career average and has more than 2,500 hits in his career. He’s also never failed to hit .295 in a season, and every time he has had 500 ABs he has gone deep at least times 27 with 83 RBI. He’s aging (36 years old), and his body has been oft injured the past few years, but it’s pretty shocking to find him on pace to go .276 with 11 homers and 53 RBI. Abreu is another aging vet who has one big advantage over Vlad – he still steals bases. Abreu has 13 thefts putting him on pace for a 13th straight season of at least 20 steals. He’s also seen his average come up to .285 on the year, and the dude can still get on base with a .395 OBP. His power seems pretty much gone, even 12 homers will be a surprise this season (he currently has three), but he’s still pretty stable at the dish and on the base paths.

Add Swisher at the expense of Bad Vlad.

Which Jays’ OF to go with: Travis Snider, Eric Thames or Rajai Davis?
– @nylivincamind

A first round selection in 2006, Snider has been up and down more than the super hero genre in movie theaters this year. When he’s in the majors he has struggled hitting .249 with a .743 OPS in his career, but he kills it in the minors. Snider hit .333 this year at Triple-A as the Jays left him down there a long while to make sure he found his stroke after hitting .184 in 87 at-bats with the Jays earlier in the year. Snider had three hits in his first game back, is just 23 years old, and scouts will tell you this is a 30 homer bat.

Thames hit 27 homers with 104 RBI last season at Double-A to gain everyone’s attention. With the Jays recent dump of Juan Rivera, Thames should get ample chance to prove himself in the bigs. He likes to swing at the first pitch, and sometimes struggles with secondary stuff, but there is no disputing that he has talent. However, he will likely have to contend with Corey Patterson and Davis for playing time which is why I’d prefer Snider over Thames.

What about Davis? It seems like he got the message that his playing time was about to be curtailed. Davis has five hits and four thefts in his last two outings. Despite all his struggles he is still looking at a third straight 40-steal season. It also deserves to be pointed out that Davis loved to hit in the second half as his average is .302, .046 points better than his first half mark, while his OPS goes up to .758, .119 points better than his first half mark.

Davis would be my choice here. His average should come up from his current .237 mark, and his wheels are elite giving him a chance to be a second half difference maker.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

AL CY and Two Deals

AL CY Young – A Job Well Done

I’m completely shocked. I mean, out of my mind confused right now. How in the world did the Baseball Writers Association of America get it right? I mean, this is on par with Copernicus discovering that the center of the universe was the Sun and not the Earth. What do I speak of? Of course I’m referring to the BBWAA selection of the Mariners’ Felix Hernandez as the AL Cy Young winner for 2010. I made my case for King Felix to be in the winner in Who is the AL Cy Young? Here is how I closed that piece.

“It will never happen, voters just won’t be able to look past the low win total, but the best pitcher in the AL this season was King Felix.”

I mean, no pitcher had ever won the the award with fewer than 15 wins – Tim Lincecum in 2010 – and his election last year caused many to pause because of the low win total.

Guess I was wrong.

King Felix won by a handy margin of 167 points to 111 for David Price and 102 for CC Sabathia (you can read the full results at the BBWAA website).

Congrats BBWAA – you did a wonderful job here.

A’s Move Davis to Blue Jays

Athletics Receive: Daniel Farquhar and Trystan Magnuson
Blue Jays Receive: Rajai Davis

The two minor league arms would appear to have some potential, and you can read about them in A’s Clear Outfield Crunch.

As for Davis, he is burner who owns one impressive set of wheels. Over the past two years he has stolen 91 bases, while being caught 23 times, and those 91 thefts place him fourth in baseball (Michael Bourn leads the way with 113, Carl Crawford has 109 and Juan Pierre has 98). However, Davis isn’t much more than that. Despite 143 games and 525 at-bats last season he scored only 66 runs because he just can’t get on base (.320 OBP in ’10, just below his .330 career mark). He also sports little power with only 12 career homers. In essence, he is Juan Pierre Jr. He is plenty valuable in the fantasy game, and should continue to run wild with the Blue Jays, but he just isn’t that great a real world player. Pay close attention to where he hits for the Blue Jays. If they stupidly allow him to hit at the top of the order he could score a bunch of runs in 2011, but his skill set is really better suited for the bottom third of the lineup.

Barmes Now an Astro

Astros Receive: Clint Barmes
Rockies Receive: Felipe Paulino

I’m not going to argue that the Astros needed to do something to bolster their middle infield, but the question I have is whether or not Barmes should have be looked at as the answer. He is versatile in that he played 69 games at second and 39 at shortstop last year (career: 333 games at short, 306 at second), but that bat of his is where I have major concerns.

(1) Here are Barmes’ career numbers: .254/.300/.404. The NL average since he began his career in 2003 is .261/.331/.416 which makes Barmes a below big league average performer in his career.

(2) While that career slash line is awful, his work away from Coors Field in his career had been pathetic, dreadful, abysmal, rancid — choose whichever adjective you like to describe his .222/.266/.352 line in more than 1,160 at-bats on the road.

That brings us back to where we started, so let’s ask the question again – did the Astros really improve their middle infield position?

As for Paulino, guy has a great arm and is just 27 years old. He has had some injury issues, and there are certainly concerns about how he will do in Colorado, but this seems like a big win for the Rockies. Paulino may have a sickly 6-21 record through three big league seasons, but he also sports a 8.08 K/9 mark that hints at his potential. I’m not saying I’m gonna draft Paulino in every league next season, but I will say when you can get a potential #3 starter for a middle infielder who isn’t even a big league average hitter, you have done pretty well.

By Ray Flowers

Commonalities Wanted

There’s no theme whatsoever to my article today. I just threw everything into a hopper and wrote about the names that fell out. Oh don’t worry, it’s really insightful stuff, there just isn’t a common thread to tie everything together.

Coco Crisp has been activated by the A’s. He hit .590 with five RBI during his rehab work in the minors signaling that his body might finally be right, finally. Still, there are about seven outfielders with the A’s club, so it remains to be seen if he will have a spot in the daily lineup, especially since his skills are so similar to those of Rajai Davis.

Mark DeRosa’s season is over as he will need surgery to repair his injured wrist. In the first year of a $12 million two year contract, DeRosa gave the Giants all of one homer, 10 RBI and 93 at-bats. That’s almost as bad an investment as The Bachelor’s Jake Pavelka made in his lady friend, Vienna Girardi. Oh stop acting like you don’t watch the show – we all know you do.

Josh Hamilton is back, and it appears that he is better than ever before. Josh is hitting .337, has a 16 game hitting streak, and is sporting a .981 OPS. Back in his “breakout” 2008 effort he hit .304 with a .901 OPS. He’s frighteningly talented.

Trevor Hoffman has been awful for most of the year, everyone knows that. However, he has improved tremendously of late and appears on the cusp of reclaiming his 9th inning role. “We kind of talked about that several times today,” manager Ken Macha said. “We’ll see how some things go. That is two good outings in a row, so I’ll talk to him [Thursday] and see how he’s feeling about himself.” If you are a John Axford owner you’ll want to hold on, but make sure Hoffman isn’t on waivers if you play in a deep league.

Jamie Moyer is almost old enough to join AARP as he is 47 years old. Amazingly, he has stuck around long enough to pile up 265 victories. That total places him 10th all-time in victories by a lefty, an it’s also one behind the immortal Bob Feller and three behind Jim Palmer. Need some more info about just how amazing Moyer’s career has been? Since turning 30 he has won 231 games, the sixth most ever from that age to the end of a player’s career. To put that win total in perspective, Roy Oswalt has 142 victories, Tim Hudson 155 and Roy Halladay 156 — in their entire careers.

Buster Posey, everyone’s darling when he was called up, has hit the skids of late with a mere .186 average and a .524 OPS over his last 43 at-bats. His average is still shade over .300 at .303, but his .421 SLG is a pretty pathetic number for a first sacker (the NL average for the position is .458). I know it borders on heresy in some corners, but Posey really needs to pick it up or he could start to lose playing time (he isn’t in the lineup on Tuesday night as Pablo Sandoval is at first with Juan Uribe at third).

Mike Stanton, who I spoke of yesterday in my Around the Horn, June 21st video, deserves to be mentioned again. Here is, in written word, what I spoke of yesterday; you simply cannot have success in the big leagues if you strikeout more than 40 percent of the time. I know it’s a miniscule sample size we’re breaking down with the talented Fish, but 19 whiffs in 43 at-bats gives him a K-rate of 44.2 percent. Chris Davis, basically demoted to the minor because he whiffs too often, owns a K-rate of 34.7 percent in his career. Other noted purveyors of the strikeout follow with their career K-rates in parenthesis: Ryan Howard (32.3), Adam Dunn (32.4), Mark Reynolds (38.2) and Jack Cust (39.1). As you can tell from that list you can be mighty successful in the bigs even if you pile up copious amounts of strikeouts, but if Stanton wants to make his mark this season he’s gonna have to knock like 10 percentage points off his current rate.

By Ray Flowers