Around the Horn: August21, 2012

(1) Athletics deal to add Stephen Drew. Can he prove his skills are intact?

(2) Sean Rodriguez sent to minors for Rays as Luke Scott is activated from DL.

(3) Alejandro De Aza sent to DL. Dewayne Wise to fill in.

(4) Brewers rotation about ready to get jumbled due to IP concerns and returning Shaun Marcum.

(5) Juan Pierre better than expected.

(6) Troy Tulowitzki still improving. Hopes to return in September.

(7) Eric Young Jr. to avoid the DL. Has been white hot at dish.
*** NOTE: The Rockies changed their minds and did end up placing Young on the DL after this video was recorded.

(8) Carl Crawford to have Tommy John surgery – season is over.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your drink on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what the offer, click on the link to BBGuys Partners with DailyJoust. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Brandon Phillips vs. J.A. Happ: Just like Uggla below, Phillips doesn’t have much of a track record against the pitcher he is facing. At the same time, what he has done is  hard to ignore. In nine at-bats Phillips has five hits leading to a .556 batting average against Happ. Three of those five hits were dingers, and that has helped to push his RBI total top five in this tasty matchup.

Ryan Theriot vs. Paul Maholm: Looking for an under the radar play on Friday? If you are, it would be wise to look to the Giants’ Theriot who has had quite an extensive run of success against the lefty with the Cubs. Theriot has hit .343 with a .410 OBP in 35 at-bats against Maholm over 35 at-bats.

Dan Uggla vs. Stephen Strasburg: How in the world could I suggest starting a guy against a pitcher who has a 2.64 ERA, 1.10 WHIP an a 10.86 K/9 mark? It’s been a mere eight at-bats but Uggla has had phenomenal success against the righty from Washington with six hits including two homers leading to seven RBI. Pretty darn amazing.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Wade Miley vs. Padres: The young lefty has held his own and then some through 10 appearances this year as he has gone 6-1 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He still has a poor 2.00 K/BB ratio, that 5.50 K/9 mark is weak, and two homers in 52.1 innings – let’s just say that isn’t likely to continue. Still, in this matchup against the Padres in Petco, it’s lock and load time.

Felipe Paulino vs. Athletics: The A’s have a historically bad offense, an I’m not making that up. Paulino has a 2.03 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 34 Ks through 31.1 innings this season. Moreover, three of his five outings this year he has held the opponent scoreless. I’m going to ignore his lone performance against the A’s last September 5th (4.1 IP, 6 ER).

Randy Wolf vs. Pirates: Why not complete the trifecta of starters against the worst offenses in baseball? Wolf has struggled this year big time (5.73 ERA, 1.67 WHIP), but he has looked better of late allowing three or fewer runs in three of his last four starts. He’s also facing a Pirates club that he has gone 9-3 against in his career with 112 Ks in 124 innings. Plus, the club from Pittsburgh has the lowest average in the NL (.218), the worst OBP in baseball (.272) and has scored 17 runs less than any other club in the game (147).

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Ryan Ludwick vs. Wandy Rodriguez: Wandy has pitched well this season, and the perception is that Ludwick has really struggled this year. The truth is in the middle perhaps. Ludwick has had a lot of success against Wandy with two homer an a .314 batting average in 35 at-bats against the lefty and he’s also gone deep twice while knocking in eight runners in his last eight games.

Hanley Ramirez vs. Cole Hamels: HanRam has barely been a .250 hitter since the start of the 2011 season and he’s also hit a mere .264 against Hamels in 53 at-bats in the match up. Why in the world would I suggest paying close attention to Hanley on Friday then? Of the 14 hits that Hanley has against the lefty Ramirez has 10 doubles. Ten. That’s a pace for 100 doubles over 530 at-bats. Wow is right. Is it a stretch to think that he could lift one of those pitches into the seats?

Ichiro Suzuki vs. Gavin Floyd: Ichiro has struggled this year, at least when compared to his previous levels of excellence, but he’s pretty much looked very much like the guy we saw for most of 2011. Middling. Still, Ichiro has a track record of success against Floyd as he has hit .361 in 36 at-bats. Given that Floyd has also allowed 21 runs in his last 14.2 innings it would seem like a pretty good time to trust Ichiro.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Mat Latos vs. Astros: Latos has been uneven this year, all those that own him understand that, but he’s won his last four decisions and has allowed three or fewer runs in four of his last five outings during which time his ERA has gone down from 5.97 to 4.58. He’s also struck out 18 batters while issuing only four walks in his last three starts, so as long as he can keep the ball in the park – he allowed an amazing five homers in his last start – he should have a solid outing against an Astros club that he is 3-1 with a 3.21 ERA, 0.89 WHIP against in his career.

Ricky Nolasco vs. Phillies: Off the top it sounds a bit crazy, but think about it. Nolasco will be facing a Phillies club without Howard/Utley, Jimmy Rollins can barely hit his way out of a papersack right now,  and Carlos Ruiz is less than 100 percent physically. There’s also the fact that Nolasco has long had success against the club from Philly going 6-4 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over 83.2 innings.

Edinson Volquez vs. D’backs: Volquez pitches at home Saturday, and he’s had a ton of success there this season even though his record is 1-3 (3.19 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 42 Ks in 42.1 innings). He faces a D’backs club that he held to two runs in seven innings in his second start of the year, and in his career he has 28 punchouts in 24.1 innings against the club from Arizona. He’s also allowed three or fewer runs in nine of his 11 starts this season. It’s not always pretty, sometimes he has trouble throwing strikes, but he has been able to limit the damage, for the most part, in his first year in San Diego.

CONTESTS

To sign up for any game with DailyJoust simply click on the link just provided. You’ll get a chance to win cash, sometimes for free (if you are new to the site you can sign up for a Free Roll and try your hand at putting together a daily fantasy squad that could allow you to win some cash for nothing). Care to test your talents and baseball knowledge?

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 4: Did We Learn Anything?

Monday’s I will be taking a look at the fantasy baseball game by breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances. This week it’s all about hot starting batters and pitchers – can they keep it up?
To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

R.A. Dickey (+72 to $258K in the DailyJoust salary)
Dickey had a rough start on April 18th (8 ER in 4.1 IP), but in his other three starts he’s posted a quality start each time out allowing a total of four runs. Overall his ratios aren’t that bad consider that one abysmal start (4.44 ERA, 1.36 WHIP), but it should be pointed out that he’s allowed at least one homer in each of his four starts and his total of six longs balls allowed is already a third of the way to his total of 18 allowed last year.

Alex Gonzalez (+24, $89K)
He is what he is. That means Alex is a middling average producer with no stolen base speed and decent pop in his bat. Hitting .254, seven points above his career mark, Gonzalez has also not stolen a base (shocker since he has only six the past five years. Alas, there is that power. With four homers and 12 RBI through 19 games for the Brewers he’s well on pace to better his totals of 15 and 56 from last season with a shot at numbers akin to his 2010 effort (23 HR, 88 RBI).

Carlos Gonzalez (+17, $120K)
Come on, were you really worried? I know that some of you were, you know who you are, so hopefully his huge effort last week will put those concerns to bed. Over his last six games CarGo has four homers, 11 RBI, seven runs scored and two steals. All of a sudden he is hitting .288 with four homers/steals, 16 RBI/runs in just 18 games of action. Elite thy name is Gonzalez.

Ramon Hernandez (+26, $105K)
A big couple of games for the aging catcher leave him with two homers, six RBI and three runs scored in his last three games. Alas, he’s still hitting a measly .241 on the year and he hasn’t walked once in 15 games. Really Ramon, not one walk? He can still be a productive bat when he plays, but the last three years he hasn’t played 100 games once. If not for Willin Rosario struggling so much (.194 with 12 Ks in 31 at-bats) Ramon might already be losing playing time.

Mike Minor (+76 to $293K)
In three games since giving up six runs in his first outing, Minor has gone 2-0 while allowing four runs on his way to three quality starts. Minor also has a 15:1 K/BB ratio in those three starts showing everyone why he was taken 7th overall in the 2009 draft by the Braves. He’s not quite on par with Brandon Beachy, but Minor’s star is certainly on the upswing.

Vance Worley (+68, $287K)
Worley has gone at least six innings in all four of his starts, an only one time has he allowed more than a run (he gave up four runs to the Mets in six innings). Stung by the long ball, he’s allowed four in four starts after giving up just 10 last season, Worley also has 27 punch outs in just 25 innings of work.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Chase Headley (-30, $80K)
Come on, you knew he wasn’t going to be able to keep up the pace. Over his last 10 games he has no homers and just two RBI, but on the year he has still produced 14 RBI and an .875 OPS. He has his issues, not the least of which being a ballpark that is going to keep his power numbers down, but overall this has been a pretty impressive start for Headley (see that .394 OBP).

Jason Heyward (-47, $67K)
With eight steals in 22 starts Heyward looks like a big time base stealing thief. Unfortunately, no one has ever thought of him in that light. Maybe 20-25 steals, but not 40+ like his early season base certainly suggests. Heyward has also gone deep just twice in 22 games, and his performance over his last 10 outings, other than the four steals, has left a lot to be desired (only seven hits, three RBI and four runs scored). Still, a heartening start.

Bud Norris (-53, $168K)
Eleven runs allowed in two outings will get everyone up in arms about your outlook. At the same time, Norris still had 12 Ks in those 11.2 innings, and four walks in that time isn’t an obnoxious number (seems like people over at Fleaflicker are plenty nervous though, just look at that ownership rate). The fact is, he just got pounded with his pitches in the strike zone leading to 19 hits. On the year he still has 22 Ks and just eight walks in 24.2 innings, solid numbers the both of them, and there is no way he’s going to allow four homers every two times he takes the hill.

Jose Tabata (-30, $55K)
Through 65 at-bats he has no homers and two runs scored. He’s also been caught on half of his six steal attempts. At the same time there has been some light at the end of the proverbial tunnel as he has raised his average from .111 to .231 over the last seven games as he has produced 11 hits. He still has an awful long way to go to get back to being the player who hit .299 with 19 steals in just 102 games in 2010.

Randy Wolf (-33, $165K)
Wolf was beat around for 11 runs in his first two outings, so allowing a mere six runs in his last two forays onto the bump is clearly progress. At best a 7.17 ERA, 1.78 WHIP and 1.44 K/BB ratio says that Wolf should not be in your starting lineup. At worst it might be time to cut Wolf loose and replace him with someone else that at least won’t kill your ratios while he tries to figure out what ails him.

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

The Case of Clayton Richard

Clayton Richard will play a large role in who wins the NL West. In what follows I will break down his 2010 performance and give my thoughts on what to expect from him moving forward.

Clayton Richard, SP, Padres
6’5″, 240 lbs.
Bats: L Throws: L
Born: September 12, 1983 (Lafayette, IN)
Drafted: Eighth round selection in 2005 by the White Sox

MINOR LEAGUE HIGHLIGHTS

2005 (Rookie, Single-A): He appeared in only 13 games tossing 51.1 inning after being drafted out of Michigan. He had a 2.85 ERA and 8.6 K/9 mark in Rookie ball before three middling appearances at Single-A (5.23 ERA, 1.45 WHIP).

2006 (Single-A, High-A): Was 6-6 with a 3.67 ERA over 18 appearances for Winston-Salem. His WHIP was poor at 1.52 as his K/9 mark dipped to 5.1. In four starts at High-A he was 1-3 with a 4.56 ERA and 1.48 WHIP.

2007 (High-A): His record was a mere 8-12, but he posted a solid 3.63 ERA over 161.1 inning (a minor league high). His K/BB was poor at 1.68 and he allowed almost a hit an inning (159) leading to a 1.35 WHIP.

2008 (Double-A, Triple-A): Finally he broke through. At Double-A he was 6-6 with a strong 2.47 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, numbers that improved when he moved to Triple-A when he went 6-0 with a 2.45 ERA an a 0.84 WHIP.

MAJOR LEAGUE CAREER

2008: He appeared in 13 games with the White Sox making eight starts. He had trouble getting batters out with a 6.04 ERA, 1.55 WHIP an a .303 BAA over 47.2 innings.

2009: He made 26 appearances with the Sox, including 14 starts, before he was dealt to the Padres. He went 4-3 with a 4.65 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in the AL before posting very similar numbers with the Padres over 12 starts: 5-2, 4.08 ERA, 1.47 WHIP.

PERSONAL REVIEW

2010 stats: 13-9, 3.71 ERA, 152 Ks, 1.40 WHIP in 196.1 IP

The most obvious place to start with Richard is that he is a totally different pitcher at home and on the road. Here are his 2010 splits:

Home: 3.16 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.01 K/9, 2.29 K/BB, .227 BAA
Away: 4.37 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 5.76 K/9, 1.66 K/BB, .307 BAA

At home he is a fantasy star, while on the road you would be better off starting a guy like Randy Wolf (yikes). No mere one year occurrence, here are his career numbers at Petco versus everywhere else.

Petco: 10-6, 2.86 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 8.02 K/9, 2.14 K/BB over 141.2 IP
Others: 14-13, 5.04 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 5.95 K/9, 1.67 K/BB over 255.1 IP

Those are some rather massive splits and they have to be a huge concern to fantasy owners.

As for his overall work this season there was some improvement. He pushed his K/9 rate up a quarter of a point to 6.97, while at the same time dropping his walk rate by seven tenths down to 3.48 (compared to his 2009 effort). At the same time, his 6.97 K/9 mark is slightly below the 2010 big league average of 7.11, while his K/BB mark of 2.00 is also below the big league average (2.17). Not really much goodness here, other than the slight growth he showed from 2009 to 2010.

As for his ability to keep the ball on the ground, his GB/FB was solid at 1.39, though that was worse than his career 1.45 mark while at the same time being a 3-year worst. His 19.2 line drive rate was pretty much league average, and his .314 BABIP was a dead on match for his career rate. The bottom line is that his BAA is right about where it should be (.266).

Richard was very, very good against left-handed batters with a 1.02 WHIP, a 3.15 K/BB mark, an a .225 BAA. However, he was sub par when facing righties with a 1.56 WHIP, a 1.76 K/BB mark, and a .281 BAA.

Finally, he continued an odd trend of being a better pitcher under the lights.

Day: 4.73 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 6.35 K/9, 1.59 K/BB
Night: 3.12 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 7.33 K/9, 2.30 K/BB

The bottom line with Richard is if you started him in a home game, that was played at nighttime, against a lineup filled with left-handed batters, you were almost guaranteed to find yourself with one dynamite performance.

PREDICTION

Richard is set to pitch on Friday night versus the Giants in what might be a must win for the Padres. I’m not going to predict how he will do in that outing other than to say that he has given up six or more earned runs in two of his last three starts and that he will be pitching on the road. If you read the report, you will know what to do if you are a Richard owner.

Long-term, until he learns to clean up his work on the road, Richard shouldn’t be counted on to produce numbers any better than we saw from him this season, which means he is nothing more than a depth option in standard mixed leagues.

By Ray Flowers

Thursday Has a Feel

Thursday is an odd day. It’s the middle of the week and it certainly has a palpable feel to it as the anticipation of the potential fun of the weekend starts to seep into ones consciousness. Maybe that’s why I’m all over the map today.

NL Playoff Thoughts

So sad to see the Dodgers fail to advance to the World Series. Not. I said it all along – there was no way a team that was counting on guys like Randy Wolf and Vincente Padilla could make the World Series. For the sake of Philly fans hopefully my other prediction that they wouldn’t be able to win the World Series with Brad Lidge pitching the ninth won’t come true. We’ll certainly have a chance to find out.

That Shane Victorino kid is a player. Did you see that sweet stroke on that long home run he hit last night? Beautiful.

Thank goodness the offense for the Phillies is so strong, because for all his production, that Jimmy Rollins is an out making machine of epic proportions. I know he produces strong fantasy 5×5 numbers each year, but my goodness does he rack up the outs. He owns a .286 OBP in 120 plate appearances in his playoff career, and this season he posted a simply hideous .296 OBP. Since he was awarded a full-time job in 2001, Rollins leads baseball with 4,496 outs, 219 more than the next guy (Orlando Cabrera). Last time I checked getting on base and avoiding outs was the name of the game for a leadoff hitter. Averaging 109 runs per 162 games in his career, can you imagine how many runs Rollins would have scored if he merely gotten on base at a league average rate?

Random Baseball Thoughts

At least we know that The Sporting News isn’t populated by idiots as they awarded Tim Lincecum and Zack Greinke their NL and AL Pitcher of the Year awards. I expressed the same views a while back in my NL Cy Young Race and AL Cy Young Race pieces. Now we’ll have to wait and see if those that vote for the Cy Young award are as smart as TSN and myself.

Steve Phillips of ESPN was recently outed in the press for having an affair. I know we are all about 24 hour news nowadays, but really, is that any of our business? I say we leave the guy and his poor family alone.

The Mets finally got some good news after a dreadful season where seemingly everyone on their roster spent at least a night in the hospital. It’s official, the Mets actually made money off the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme, $48 million worth to be exact. Finally, some good news.

If Bobby Valentine ends up returning to the States to manage the Indians, will he bring with him his Super Mario Brothers’ disguise?

Brandon Inge, a tremendous human being who goes out of his way all the time to help pretty much any charity that contacts him, fell flat on his face in the second half this year because of a wonky knee as he hit just .186 after the All-Star game. Turns out things were worse than we thought. Both of his knees were hurt. In fact, Inge will have to undergo surgery on both knees this offseason, though he should be ready by the start of the season. This is one guy who is in your corner Mr. Inge, even if I would be extremely reluctant to place my faith in you in standard mixed leagues.

Football Thoughts

Darrius Heyward-Bey is ninth in receptions — on the Raiders. He has two receptions on the season. Another stellar draft selection by the Raiders.

My over/under on Michael Crabtree this week, his first NFL game, is 27 yards. Any takers?

Am I the only one that found it laughable that during the Patriots annihilation of the Titans over the weekend that they actually put a “countdown to the Super Bowl” clock on the television screen? It was something like 111 days. How dumb is that?

Why is there a rule that NFL teams have to share injuries with the public/press, a rule they openly flaunt? Have the Patriots ever been truthful with their list? If you think they have, guess what, I got this new fangled elixir that helps to attract hot ladies to average looking guys. How many bottles you want?

By Ray Flowers