Player Proflie: Mike Napoli

Mike Napoli does something very few players who wear the tools of ignorance can do – he strikes fear into pitchers when he strides to the dish. It’s fair to point out that he isn’t a fantastic defender, he’s certainly competent, but when his potent bat is added to the mix he’s one of the unique weapons at the catcher position (it should be noted that he’s also played a lot of first base the past three years). Add in that he was born on Halloween and he has to be a great player, right? Don’t tell that to people that owned Napoli in 2012 though as his effort was seen as a whopper of a downer after his massive 2011 effort (.320-30-75 with a 1.046 OPS). I’m here to tell you though that his ’12 production was right in line with expectations, that is unless you were expecting too much as most of us were.

NOTE: For those of you living in a cave, Napoli signed a three year deal with the Red Sox for a reported $39 million. They plan on slotting him at first base on most days, though he will still see some time behind the dish.

As I pointed out in my 2012 Positional Review of Catchers, Napoli’s power stroke in 2012 was exactly what you should have expected. From 2008-11 he averaged 24 homers. In 2012 he hit 24 homers. Of course people were disappointed when he failed to match his career best total of 30 homers from 2011, but as I always touch on with players, many times their “failures” are based on our unrealistic expectations. Napoli is the poster boy for out of control expectations. How is a guy who matches his previous four year average in anything seen as a disappointment? The real problem is that Napoli can’t convince anyone to give him at-bats. Only once has he been given 400 at-bats in a season, and that’s what’s holding down his power output, not a lack of talent. That will likely change this year in Boston. More on that in a moment.

Napoli saw his RBI total dip from 75 to 56, so again, total failure right? Well, not really. From 2008-10 Napoli averaged 58 RBIs a season. Just like with the homers, this really wasn’t as big a drop off as many suspected.

Napoli’s runs scored drop from 72 to 53 is discouraging. Still, as with his HR/RBI totals, you should have expected a fall off. Not only did his OBP go down, more on that in a second, but he was never a big run producer before. In fact, from 2008-10 Napoli averaged exactly… 53 runs a season.

‘But what about the batting average Ray, how in the world can you explain a .093 point drop and make us feel good about it?’ Other than the .320 average in 2011, Napoli has never hit .275 in a season (that’s six other seasons under .275). Napoli also owns a career .259 batting average. So let’s put it this way. Which number, .320 or .227, is further from his career mark? His .227 batting average last season is .032 points off his career mark while his .320 batting average in ’11 is .061 points off. That’s nearly double the difference from his 2012 mark to his career average. Looking at it that way, which number is the outlier? Exactly.

Napoli saw his OBP tank in ’12 from his career best .414 down to .343. Again, which of those two numbers fits in better with his career given that his career mark is .356? I’m concerned that his K-rate exploded, it was 30 percent last season (25.4 for his career) and that didn’t help matters at all, but the fact is that his 0.45 BB/K rate was right on his career 0.47 mark. Again, 2011 was the outlier, not 2012.

I won’t even bother going through the same analysis for his SLG percentage. I’ll just list the numbers and let you draw your own conclusions: .631 in 2011, .469 in 2012, .507 for his career.

Let me boil this down for you. The 2011 season is the outlier, not everything else Napoli has done for his career. He will never hit .320 again. He will never have a .414 OBP again. He will never have a .631 SLG again. He will never have a 1.046 OPS again. If he could get 500 at-bats he could easily challenge his counting number career bests (30 HR, 75 RBIs and 72 runs scored), and it certainly sounds like the Red Sox plan on giving him those at-bats this season, but the ratio marks are out of reach (this is likely the best time to own Napoli in the fantasy game as a catcher eligible player looking at 500+ ABs). So stop doing what everyone is doing with Napoli – comparing himself to his ’11 career effort. If you remove the season from the back of his ball card his 2012 season shouldn’t be seen as anything other than a solid effort from a power hitting catcher. It’s not Napoli’s fault that your expectations for him were unreasonable heading into 2012, so get over it.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Michael Young

Michael Young has been one of the most consistent hitters in baseball the past decade. From 2003-12 Young was second in baseball with 1,984 hits, his total of 371 doubles was fourth and his total of 951 runs scored was 7th. Over the last decade an average Young season in the fantasy game has led to a line of .308-16-87-95-8 with those 198 hits a season. Always willing to do what is best for the team, Young has seasons of least 130 games played at second base/third base/shortstop in his career, and he’s also had a season of more than 40 games at first (that 40 games season at first was in 2012 so he will qualify at both corner infield spots in 2013 but not second base where he appeared in just 16 games). Despite all of that amazing work, Young saw his totals last season regress to his worst overall levels since 2002 (he hit .277 with eight homers, 67 RBIs, 79 runs scored and two steals). Is the 37 year old at the end of the line in terms of being an upper echelon fantasy performer?

I noted it above, but one of the biggest dings to the value of Young moving forward is that he will not qualify at second base at the start of the 2013 season. His bat would still play at second base, but as a corner infield option? The only way that will work is if we are talking about an AL-only setup. As for that bat…

Young has never been a power hitter but last seasons total of eight homers was the first time he failed to hit at least 11 homers since 2007 and it was also his lowest mark since becoming a big leaguer. Some of the blame for that resides in the fact that Young hit more ground balls than ever before last season with 53.2 percent of his batted balls hitting the turf (the first time in his illustrious career that his GB-rate was over 50 percent). Young also registered a 6.1 HR/F mark, a career worst. Fifteen homers is the top end of what you should expect from Young moving forward, and even that is being rosie. A slight uptick in this category is possible, but it really doesn’t matter cause you shouldn’t be drafting Young for the long ball. I should also note that Young failed to reach 30 doubles for the first time since 2002. Moreover, he failed to reach 35 doubles for the first time since 2004. It wasn’t just the home run power that disappointed.

Young drove in 67 runs, his lowest total since 2002. Given that he hit in a powerful Rangers lineup, and spent 123 games last season in the five or six hole in the lineup, there really isn’t a good reason to explain the lack of ribbies. After back-to-back seasons of 91 and 106 RBIs the major fall of last season was a drag on his value. He figures to find it hard to move back up the RBI column if he’s not at the top of the batting order and if the extra base power doesn’t come back.

But the real issue here with Young isn’t a slight dip in homers, or a regression in RBIs, the real concern is that batting average dip. Young hit .277 last season, his lowest mark in a decade (he had hit at least .284 each year from 2003-11). However, it shouldn’t really be that shocking that his average regressed. I say that because Young hit .338 in 2011, the best mark of his career. Average out the last two seasons and you end up with a .308 average which is seven points better than his career .301 mark. Sample size and all you know. Delving further, we see a 5.1 percent walk rate, his lowest since 2003. He somewhat negated the lack of walks by making better contact than he had ever before. Young had a K-rate of 10.8 percent, a career low, which led to a 0.47 BB/K rate, slightly better than his career 0.46 mark. I would also say that it’s a bit strange to see a guys batting average dip when he posts a 22.9 percent line drive rate, but it’s actually below his 24.2 percent career mark even though it’s still the second best mark he’s posted of the last five years.

Young profiles as a solid single league option in 2013. He’s power has never been significant enough to warrant much love, and his lack of qualification at second base also hinders his outlook. It’s fair to think that his batting average could come back up a bit in 2013, but he’s also 37 years old so there is no guarantee he will return to the ranks of .300 hitters. Don’t draft Young based on name recognition or in the hopes that he will repeat his terrific 2011 effort (.338-11-106-88). If you do you will end up disappointed.

By Ray Flowers

Nathan to Close for Rangers

The Rangers made a move that will help to shape their ballclub in 2012 on Monday. The club from Texas signed Joe Nathan to a 2-year deal worth $15 million (with a club option for a third year). What does this deal mean for Nathan, and more importantly, the young arm that has filled the role of closer for the Rangers the past couple of seasons?

Nathan was brought into Texas to close. The 37 year old reliever, coming back off Tommy John surgery last season, pitched just 44.2 innings with a 4.84 ERA in 2011 which might cause many to wonder what the Rangers were thinking here. What they realized was that Nathan looked just like his old self in the second half of the season – a very common occurrence for pitchers coming back from TJ surgery who often need some time to round back into shape. Nathan posted the following numbers over his last 24 outings last year: 8.61 K/9, 4.40 K/BB, 1.00 WHIP with a .207 batting average against. That was good enough for the Rangers to believe Nathan will be in 2012 what he was every year from 2004-09, and that was an elite relief pitcher (in those six seasons Nathan’s lowest save total was 36). Nathan was brought in to close for the Rangers in 2012, and he should be very successful in that role.

Now we have to deal with the aftermath of that signing, and that is what happens to Neftali Feliz, who racked up 72 saves the past two years? Teams realize that it’s much easier to find someone to pitch one inning out of the bullpen than it is to find a hurler who can dominate out of the rotation every five days. As such, the plan has always been for Feliz to start for the Rangers. Given the success that the Rangers had in converting C.J. Wilson and Alexi Ogando into starters the past two years, they clearly have a nice blueprint in place to help aid their hurlers in that transition. The move of Feliz into the rotation might also be an admission that the Rangers do not feel confident that they will be able to retain Wilson who is the top free agent arm on the market.

So what should you expect from Feliz in 2012? Good question. While the move to the rotation will likely reap major rewards at some point, it’s tough to see how he could become a dominant starter this coming season. There are a couple of reasons for that.

(1) A youngster at 23 years old, Feliz has thrown a total of 132.2 innings the past two years for the Rangers. Given that smallish workload, there are serious questions about how far the Rangers will let Feliz go in 2012. Ogando transitioned to the starting rotation and threw 169 innings in 2011 (Wilson was allowed to go 204 innings, but he was much older and had five years of big league experience under his belt). If Feliz was allowed to reach that rather modest total of 170 innings that would be 100 innings more than he has thrown in either of the last two seasons. That’s a huge increase. Given the importance of pitching in the game, and repeated instances of young hurlers having arm issues with major innings pitched increases, Feliz could be looking at a late season shut down, or periodic skipping of starts throughout the year to keep the innings under control.

(2) Feliz effortlessly tosses 96 mph cheese at hitters and that has led to an impressive 164 Ks in 162.2 innings in his career. However, his K-rate fell from 11.32 as a rookie down to 9.22 in 2010 and then 7.80 last season. If he could only strike out 7.80 batters per nine as a reliever last season, how many will he punch out when he is stretched out as a starter?

(3) After posting a BB/9 mark under 2.35 his first two years, Feliz saw that number explode in 2011 up to 4.33. If he can’t bring his walk rate back down, success will be elusive, especially if he repeats his awful 1.80 K/BB ratio from last season.

Let’s add everything up. Granted we’re talking only three years here, and with no season of even 70-innings it’s not a huge sample size, but in the following categories Feliz has seen his performance regress each of the past two years: ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, K/BB, BAA, BABIP, LOB%, xFIP. Is that a trend you wanted to see?

Nathan will be fine as the Rangers’ closer, and barring a physical setback, he should be good to go with his normal 35 saves. As for Feliz, his outlook is less clear. There is no disputing that he has an elite arm, and that one day he could easily vie for the Cy Young award. Still, given his almost across the board struggles last year, and the fact that he’s never thrown 70-innings in a big league season, I’m not going to be one of those folks out there paying for a hurler that I expect to pitch 200 innings with 180 strikeouts and an ERA in the mid 3′s.

 By Ray Flowers

Halloween & Cardinals World Champs

  Today is the day that the veil between the living the dead is the thinnest, it’s All Hallow’s Eve. There’s candy for the kids an eye candy for the adults, but generally people are unaware just what they are celebrating on Halloween. One of the best authors on the subject, David Skal, can be seen here giving a little rundown on the history of the holiday. Hopefully you will get a chance to explore the wonderful holiday that allows you to be someone else (at different points on my weekend long celebration, I was Night Owl of Watchmen fame, The Dark Knight and Captain America – I rocked it with the shield).

Here are a few movie selections if you’re looking for something to watch tonight.

Frankenstein – The iconic Universal film starring Boris Karloff as the Monster. The definitive version of the Mary Shelley’s masterpiece is timeless even though it’s from 1931. The 1935 sequel, Bride of Frankenstein, is equally interesting with plenty of dark humor, and some even consider it the superior film.

Texas Chainsaw Massacre – It’s never been equaled for the raw emotional intensity that it evokes. Tobe Hooper’s classic is as creepy an unsettling as any story that’s ever been put to celluloid.

Trick R’ Treat – A wonderful compilation of stories that include a psychotic pumpkin, a female werewolf striptease, and just a little bit of the history of the holiday’s traditions mixed in.

Halloween – Often imitated by never duplicated, this 1978 classic from John Carpenter is “the father” of slasher films. Virtually every horror movie you have ever seen borrows something from this classic about the unstoppable force that is Michael Myers.

Now to baseball…

The Cardinals won their 11th World Series title, the second most in baseball history to the Yankees who have a whopping total of 27 championships. Here are some other facts from the Cardinals improbable run.

The Cards are only the second team to be one strike from elimination who were able to win the title. The other time it happened was the Mets in 1986.

There have only been six teams since 1969 to be 10 or more games out of the playoffs on August 1st and still make the playoffs. The only other team from this group to win the title, other than the Cardinals of course who were at one point 10.5 games behind the Braves, was the Mets’ miracle bunch from 1969.

Lance Berkman finished off his first season in St. Louis in grand style. Berkman hit .432 in the Series, an in the playoffs he batted .312 with a .413 OBP for the Cards (his regular season numbers were eerily close at .301 and .412).

Chris Carpenter won Game 7 and is now 7-0 in his career in home starts in the playoffs. He was 4-0 overall in the 2011 playoffs and his nine career playoff wins are the most of any active hurler.

Allen Craig was a star in the playoffs, especially in the World Series. In Games 1 &2 he had pinch hit RBI singles off of Alexi Ogando to put the Cards in the lead. He also hit three homers with a 1.154 OPS in the Series.

David Freese was named the World Series MVP. He finished the 2011 playoffs with 21 RBI, the most in the history of the game. Of course the extra playoff rounds help push his numbers past some of the “old timers,” but still, you have to be impressed when anyone averages more than an RBI an outing in the playoffs.

Albert Pujols had that massive outing in Game 3 in which he had five hits (three homers), six RBI and four runs scored. In the other six games of the World Series Pujols had all of one hit in 19 at-bats. He still hit .353 with a 1.155 OPS over the course of the playoffs.

And it wouldn’t be a post season wrap up if I didn’t mention the Rangers and their woes. The club from Texas became the first team since the Braves in 1991-92 to lose in the World Series in back-to-back seasons. Oh, and one more little diddy. The Rangers dropped Games 6 & 7, the first time that they had lost back-to-back games since August.

By Ray Flowers

World Series: Game 7

The Cardinals were, not once but twice, one out from elimination on Thursday night, but both times they rallied for one of the most dramatic endings to a game in World Series history. As a result of their 10-9 victory in the 11th inning over the Rangers, the scene is set for Game 7 tonight at 8:05 PM EDT. Here are some random thoughts about everything playoffs.

This was just the third time in the history of the World Series that a team came back from being one out from elimination. The 1986 Mets accomplished the feat. Some of you will remember that contest. I will venture to guess though that not a single person reading this piece will remember the other time it occurred. It was before the Vietnam War. It predated World War II. My goodness, it was even before World War I. The other time it happened was when the 1911 Giants pulled off the trick.

The Cardinals have won more Game 7′s in the World Series than any other team. They have gone 7-3 in their 10 chances.

Speaking of World Series titles, most know the Yankees lead the way with 27 championships since 1903. How many of you realized that the Cardinals are second on that list with 10? Speaking of championships, the Rangers are one of eight teams that have yet to taste World Series triumph (Rockies, Astros, Brewers, Padres, Mariners, Ray and Nationals). Amongst those clubs, none has been a team longer than the Rangers who are one year older than the Astros.

There were 393 pitches thrown in Game 7.

Neftali Feliz had not blown a save chance in 17 postseason appearances heading into Game 6.

David Freese is just killing it this postseason. Besides hitting .393 with a .448 OBP, he’s also sporting a Bondsian 1.235 OPS. Freese has gone deep five times and hit seven triples in just 17 games as he has plated 19 runners. Oh, and that walk-off homer from last night was just the fifth in a Game 6 or Game 7 in the history of the World Series (the last to pull off the trick was Joe Carter in 1993 for the Blue Jays). You would be hard pressed to find a more productive postseason in the history of the game.

Nelson Cruz has an injured groin, but he’s expected to play in Game 7. He’s tied Barry Bonds (2002) and Carlos Beltran (2004) for most homers in a single postseason with eight. Speaking of a wonderful run in the playoffs, Cruz has those eight homers and 16 RBI in 16 postseason games. He’s only batting .241, but he does have a 1.023 OPS for the Rangers.

Josh Hamilton is all beat up. A 30 homer threat every year, it took him 61 at-bats to hit his first postseason home run in Game 6. Hamilton has been a shell of his powerful self this postseason (.273/.292/.409).

To close… did you actually count out the Cardinals last night? You do remember that they came back from a 10.5 game deficit to overtake the Braves for the NL Wild Card, right?

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Mike Napoli

If you don’t love yourself, who else will? Given that fact, here is a direct quote from my 2011 BaseballGuys.com Hitter Capsules from April 1st, 2011.

“For three years Mike Napoli has bashed his way to 20 homers despite an average of 354 at-bats a season. Few catchers can match his power. Adding the dimension of playing first base last season allowed him to post a career-high at-bat total, and one would think that if he ever was given 500 at-bats that he might be capable of posting that elusive 30 homer season.”

Napoli didn’t get those 500 at-bats. In fact, he didn’t even get 400. Hell, he didn’t even get 375 as he finished the year with 369 at-bats. I know he was hurt for a while there, but the Rangers horribly mismanaged him this season and as a result almost torpedoed what ended up being a magical season.

I don’t know if you noticed it, but Napoli hit 30 homers. Thirty. That’s a homer every 12.3 at-bats. If he had maintained that pace over 500 at-bats, and I’m pretty certain he couldn’t have, he would have hit 41 homers. As a result his .631 SLG was the best in baseball for a player who had at least 400 plate appearances. The power has always been his calling card, but in 2011 he also added a batting average.

Napoli, who had never hit better than .273 in a season and owned a career mark of .251 entering the year, hit .320. Not .230 but .320 (Joe Mauer owns a career mark of .323). He hit lefties (.319) and righties (.320), he hit at home (.307) and on the road (.332), and he hit at night (.318) and during the day (.324). He isn’t a .300 hitter, his BABIP this year was .344 or .041 points above his career rate, but he cut his strikeouts to a career low 19.7 percent of his at-bats, so he showed some improvement. Thanks to the lack of punchouts and a solid walk rate his BB/K mark was a well worth the price of admission at 0.68 leading to a superb .414 OBP (Mauer owns a career mark of .403). Amongst players with at least 400 plate appearances this year Napoli’s .414 mark was 5th best in baseball.

Adding his work getting on base and his ability to produce extra bases, Napoli posted a 1.046 OPS, the second best mark in baseball for a player with 400 plate appearances (Jose Bautista was 1st with a 1.056 mark).

So let’s put things in historical perspective. How many catchers in the 21st century have hit .320 with 30 homers an a 1.000 OPS? The answer is three.

.320-30-1.046 – Napoli this year
.324-38-1.012 – Mike Piazza in 2000
.328-43-1.065 – Javy Lopez in 2003

Piazza had 545 plate appearances.
Lopez had 495 plate appearances.
Napoli had 432 plate appearances.

Think it’s about time that (a) Napoli gets his due and (b) someone gives the guy 500 at-bats?

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April 13, 2011

(1) Josh Hamilton to miss 6-8 weeks with fractured right humerus. Chris Davis called up, but David Murphy the only likely to play every day.

(2) Michael Cuddyer continues to see work at second base for Twins.

(3) Stephen Drew returns from injury. Looking sharp hitting cleanup.

(4) Brian Wilson is back to his dominating self. For more on his efforts see Giants Follow Familiar Formula.

(5) Dan Haren tossed 1-hitter for Angels.

(6) Angel Sanchez a fraud?

(7) Grady Sizemore close to return from knee injury.

Decisions Contemplated and Made

Why can’t one of the leagues all-time great sluggers find a job, and have the Rockies pulled the string on a series of moves that will preclude the club from being a contender for the next decade?

The Plight of Jim Thome

Jim Thome is a masher of historic proportions. He has 589 homers, the 8th most in big league history, and though he hit “only” 25 homers last season that was in a mere 276 at-bats. Given that pace, if he had come to the plate for 500 at-bats he would have hit 45 homers. Clearly the old man, he’s 39, can still mash it. Thome was exceptionally effective against righties last season hitting .302 with 19 homers and a 1.154 OPS in just 189 at-bats, a pace of 50 homers per 500 at-bats. Honestly, he was every bit the equal of Albert Pujols and last season when facing righties.

So where does all that leave him for 2011? It leaves him unemployed. The Twins remain interested in bringing back the slugger, but Thome is looking for one last substantial paycheck after playing last season for $1.7 million. He won’t be giving the Twins a hometown discount to return. This has left the door open for someone to capitalize, and it looks like the Rangers have come out guns a blazin’. I have a hard time figuring out where the at-bats would come from though. Here is what I see.

The addition of Adrian Beltre to play third base moves Michael Young to DH. Young could find at-bats literally at every position on the infield (including first base), but for now Young is slotted as the primary DH. That leaves first base in the hands of Mitch Moreland, and with rumors floating around that the Rangers wouldn’t include him in a deal to get Matt Garza, I would be hard pressed to think they really want to platoon Moreland in 2011 even if he did struggle in limited work against lefties last year (.200 in 20 ABs). And you can forget about David Murphy getting 400 at-bats unless someone is hurt. The Rangers seemingly don’t have a spot in the every day lineup for Thome – though that doesn’t mean he couldn’t match last years total with the Twins of 276 at-bats. What I do know is that if he is added to the club, the Rangers would be forced to move people around a lot, and that isn’t an ideal situation for a team with championship aspirations. Having that flexibility with positions is wonderful, but players like to find their comfort zones and really don’t want to be in and out of the lineup, using a different glove, every day.

Have the Rockies Been Financially Wise?

I don’t often spend time talking about baseball and money, though I did last month in The End of Baseball? I’m not going to bash the Yankees and the Red Sox today (for a change). Instead, I want to touch on the business model that the Rockies are currently operating under.

The Rockies have signed the two cornerstone’s of their franchise to deals worth more than $214 million as Troy Tulowitzki signed a 7-year, $134.5 million contract extension while Carlos Gonzalez re-upped for 7-years and $80 million. That is a whopping amount of cash which raises the very real possibility that the Rockies may not be able to put forth a contender for the next decade.

Last year the Rockies spent $84 million on their payroll. Though it will take a few years for the massive dollars of Tulo and CarGo to really kick in, the duo will be paid about $30 million a year over the life of their contracts. That number rises even further as the deals reach the later years as they will make $36 million in 2015, $37 million in 2016 and $40 million in 2017. Even if the club raises the payroll to $100 million in three to five years as expected, their duo will be sucking up nearly 40 percent of the payroll. To draw a parallel, the Yankees would have had to of spent $83 million on Alex Rodriguez and CC Sabathia to have devoted 40 percent of their team salary to two guys in 2010 (they actually made about $57 million). The bottom line is that you simply cannot have 40 percent of your payroll invested in just two players – it just doesn’t work. If either player is injured, or fails to perform like they did in 2010, the Rockies will be sunk. The reason is that so much of their resources are tied up in two players that they will be unable to substantially increase their payroll if they have other holes to fill on the roster. Will they be able to sign that veteran backup for $4 million, or will they have to go with the $500,000 youngster with only 112 big league at-bats? Will they be able to bring in a setup man of note if they have only $900,000 to spend on a bullpen arm? Of course they wont.

I wish the Rockies all the luck in the world. Denver is a magnificent town, that ballpark is a jewel, and it seems like Tulo and Gonzalez both have a shot to be All-Star’s for the duration of their deals. Still, for a team that will never be able to financially compete with the big boys I think this was a move that they may end up regretting. Take it from a San Francisco Giants’ fan that watched his team, for years, be hamstring by the contract of superstar Barry Bonds – one major contract can be tough to overcome when you don’t have endless resources, let alone two.

By Ray Flowers

Insanity Reigns Supreme

In what follows you will read the tale of the best agent in baseball, a solid third basemen who is being paid as if he is the second coming of Mike Schmidt, and how a team with no chance of winning their division in 2011 is willing to dump $14 million into three moderately effective relievers.

Beltre to AL Champs

Now I’ve seen it all.

Middle relievers are getting multi year deals for more than $5 million a year, which is bad enough, but this whole Adrian Beltre situation has me totally befuddled until I read two words – Scott Boras. Somehow Beltre’s agent, Mr. Boras, has convinced the Rangers that they just had to have Beltre. Not only that, he’s convinced them to pay more than the $80-85 million Beltre was seeking as current reports put the deal he is on the verge of signing with the Rangers at 6-years and $96 million (see Postcards from Elysian Fields). Oh the deal isn’t done, and it does appear to have some language in it that could void the sixth year, but it seems like a near lock that it will get worked out. So here are my questions.

(1) Is Beltre worth that much money? I certainly don’t think so and I’ve written just that multiple times including an in depth look at the player in The Curious Case of Adrian Beltre. Give it a read before you think that the Rangers are spending their money wisely.

(2) How in the world did Mr. Boras get the Rangers to go six years and nearly $100 million on Beltre given that there seemed to be only one other team even remotely interested in Beltre? The Angels were the other team, but they reportedly pulled their 5-year, $70 million offer off the table when Beltre dragged his feat on accepting it. The Athletics long ago pulled out of the sweepstakes, and their offer was 5-years and $64 million according to reports. So again, I ask, how was Boras able to get six and 96 from the Rangers when no one else was reportedly within $25 million of that offer? There may be no person on the planet better at their job than Mr. Boras – not one.

(3) I can grant you that Beltre is a better defensive third baseman than Michael Young, but really, why the Rangers need to add Beltre to take over third and push Young to DH? Wouldn’t it have been more fiscally prudent just to leave Young at third and to bring free agent Vladimir Guerrero back to DH? Not only would they have saved something like $75 million compared to what they had to lay out for Beltre, their offense would likely have been just as good in 2011. Are the few runs a year that Beltre will save at third base worth the untold millions extra they are paying him?

(4) And finally, for the gazillionth time:
Beltre has one 30 homer season.
Beltre has two 100 RBI seasons.
Beltre has hit better than .290 just twice.

To compare – Aramis Ramirez has four 30-HR seasons, five 100 RBI efforts, and he has hit better than .290 six times, and few have ever considered him to be an elite option despite the fact that his offensive highs have dwarfed the efforts of Beltre.

Seriously, I just don’t get it.

Orioles Finally Sign Gregg

The Orioles finally got their man as they signed Kevin Gregg to a 2-year deal worth $10 million. According to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun, there is also a vesting option for a third year. For more on Gregg and his recent solid work on the hill spend a few moments looking over Hot Stove: Not Everyone is Greedy.

How does the end of the game look for the Orioles? They already have power lefty Michael Gonzalez in the pen, and he clearly can handle 9th inning work. I know he was injured last season and limited to just 24.2 innings last season because of injury, so the Orioles do need to make sure they have an alternative to Gonzalez. But still, they are paying him $6 million in 2011, and that is quite the cost for a setup man (and obviously, more than Gregg will be making). The Orioles did the smart thing and locked up control artist Koji Uehara for a mere $3 million on a one year deal (I say mere because of the aforementioned spending spree that GM’s went on this year with middle relievers). However, Uehara also had arm issues last season, and it’s unclear if he will be able to pitch every other day out of the bullpen. Uehara and Gonzalez are scheduled to make $9 million this year. Toss in another $5 million for Gregg and you are talking $14 million for those three arms in 2011. I guess in today’s age that isn’t too much to pay for a moderately successful closer, an injury prone lefty, and a guy who has thrown a total of 110.2 innings at the big league level.

Are you as pumped as I am about the upcoming 2011 fantasy baseball season? In order to help you kick off your quest to be a champion in ’11, we at Fanball have set out to provide you with all the tools that you need to accomplish your goal. Read more about how to start your journey in Your Fantasy Baseball Resolution where you will find links to staff rankings, projections, live advice and DraftPractice.com where you can mock away for FREE.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: Rumor Mill, Dec. 29

I got nothing but rumors to discuss today, though I’m sure you won’t mind that given the clarity that I will bring to each free agents potential for the coming season.

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Angels remain the most likely landing spot for Adrian Beltre. There are still rumblings out there that Beltre is seeking upwards of $85 million which seems like a crazy amount of dough to spend on a guy who is already 32 years old and one who has only one 30 homer season and just two with 100-RBI. Will the Angels bite since they missed out on their top target, Carl Crawford, who signed with the Red Sox? For more on Crawford give The End of Baseball? a read.

There are three relievers whose names are in the hopper right now as front burner type guys. Here are my thoughts on each.

Grant Balfour: On the Orioles radar, Balfour is the hardest thrower of this threesome. However, his average fastball is down two mph from its peak in 2008 when he was murder on hitters with a massive 12.65 K/9 mark as he held batters to a .143 average. He regressed in ’09 seeing his ERA almost triple to 4.81 as his K/9 rate plummeted to 9.22. While his K/9 rate was even worse last year at 9.11, he was able to cut a walk and a half off his BB/9 mark down to 2.77 (a career best) and that was a huge key to his return to success (2.28 ERA, 1.08 WHIP). Somehow he has been able to avoid allowing homers year after year despite the fact that 45 percent of batted balls have gone skyward. At this point, he has proven that this is a trend to be taken seriously as his HR/FB rate has been below nine percent each of the past five years. A nice addition to any pen if expectations are kept in check.

Hideki Okajima: On the A’s radar, Okajima is coming off his worst season – by a lot. He missed his career ERA by more than a run and a half at 4.50, while his WHIP was above 1.26 for the first time in four years at a sickly 1.72. Hideki also saw his K/9 rate dip one and a half batters below his career rate of 6.46 per nine, while his BB/9 was also a career worst (3.91). Already 35 years old, someone will take a chance on a rebound from Hideki and just write off last season as an injury induced slump, though I have my doubts it was only that.

Chad Qualls: Also on the A’s radar, Qualls is the hurler from this group I would most like to see “my” team sign. How can I say that when his ERA was 7.32 last year? Am I off my rocker? Possibly, but hear me out.

(1) Qualls can be had on the cheap coming off that dreadful season, and that’s a huge check mark in his favor with middle relievers getting massive deals this offseason.

(2) From 2005-09 he was one of the most consistent relievers in baseball. In that time he had never posted an ERA higher than 3.76 or a WHIP worse than 1.32 with an average effort of a 3.30 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.

(3) Qualls is one of the best pitchers in baseball in terms of generating ground balls with a career GB/FB mark of 2.30. Even last season, when he was awful, he still posted a strong 1.95 mark. When you induce that many grounders, success will usually follow.

(4) Despite atrocious ratios last season, Qualls still pitched pretty well – and no, I’m not still hungover from celebrating my Sirius/XM Experts League Championship in fantasy football. Look at the numbers.

2010: 7.47 K/9, 1.95 GB/FB, 16.8 LD-rate, 55.0 GB-rate
career: 7.35 K/9, 2.30 GB/FB, 17.3 LD-rate, 57.6 GB-rate

So why the struggles. How about an utter lack of anything resembling even an iota of good will?

2010: 16.8 LD-rate, .399 BABIP, 53.0 LOB%
career: 17.3 LD-rate, .309 BABIP, 71.9 LOB%

Clearly, this guy left his rabbit’s foot at home last year. His BABIP mark was the worst in baseball amongst pitchers who threw 50-innings, despite better than a career average line drive rate. That will not repeat in ’11. Qualls also went from a slightly better than average pitcher in terms of stranding runners to being an abysmal failure as he was, again, the worst pitcher in baseball in that category (min. 50 IP). Given the totality of his work last season I’m betting on a strong rebound after last year’s dismal showing that, quite simply, makes no logical sense.

By Ray Flowers